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RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (1 Viewer)

wait hold the phone here. a 22 yr old RB with legs the size of IFBB pro Tom Platz, needs to be kept 'fresh' ?? LOL .

in other words the coaches are saying 'we screwed up by selecting him in this year's draft'. 

 
wait hold the phone here. a 22 yr old RB with legs the size of IFBB pro Tom Platz, needs to be kept 'fresh' ?? LOL .

in other words the coaches are saying 'we screwed up by selecting him in this year's draft'. 
The coaching staff doesn’t think Taylor is that much better than the other guys at this point in his career and thinks fresh legs are important all game.   Not saying either thought is correct but the RBBC theory is certainly popular.    

 
That’s the point. You can call whatever game an outlier in a tiny sample but you’d be doing so blindly before you had more data. I’m not saying 28 touches is the norm. I’m saying it’s silly to call anything an outlier at this point. They smashed the Vikes and he got 28. Smashed the Jets and he got 14. Which game is the outlier? Against the Jags he didn’t start and they lost a competitive game. That’s not like the other 3 in the sample. Btw he had 15 touches in roughly 60% of the game.
So then eliminate the Jags game if you'd prefer and just look at the other 3, which were all fairly similar. Yes, I've said that it's a small sample size, but it's all we have to work with so far. If you're only looking at the Vikings and Jets games I'd agree, can't pick an outlier because it's 1-1, but the Bears game gives us 2 in one column and 1 in the other.

I'm not doing so blindly, I'm using the data that we have at this moment. You can call it silly if you'd like but there is no rigid mathematical definition of identifying an outlier nor how much data you need to do so. It's subjective, but I think I've made my case that out of the games so far, one is clearly not like the other in terms of the RB usage. Obviously more data points is better, but that doesn't mean we can't at least discuss the data we do have so far. Of course, you're free to dismiss it as silly if you'd like as well.

I think you're getting hung up on semantics instead of the general point. No one is saying the Vikings game is set in stone as an outlier and he'll never get 20+ carries or 60%+ of the snaps again, it's just "so far" and obviously subject to change. As an owner, I'm hoping it does so starting tomorrow because every game like the last two makes it easier to identify the outlier.

 
Jonathan Taylor Faces Difficult Test In Week 5 

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will not have an easy Week 5 against the Browns. The Browns are allowing just a little over 90 rushing yards per game and holding ball carriers to less than four yards per carry. This does not bode well for Taylor, who is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on the season. Taylor is the clear No. 1 option in the backfield but shared more carries last week against the Bears, seeing just 46 percent of the team's offensive snaps. However, he is still averaging a little over 18 carries per game since being named the starter, so he remains a viable fantasy option. He is still an RB2 this week if he can pick up more yards per carry and find the end zone.--Connor Wege

 
So then eliminate the Jags game if you'd prefer and just look at the other 3, which were all fairly similar. Yes, I've said that it's a small sample size, but it's all we have to work with so far. If you're only looking at the Vikings and Jets games I'd agree, can't pick an outlier because it's 1-1, but the Bears game gives us 2 in one column and 1 in the other.

I'm not doing so blindly, I'm using the data that we have at this moment. You can call it silly if you'd like but there is no rigid mathematical definition of identifying an outlier nor how much data you need to do so. It's subjective, but I think I've made my case that out of the games so far, one is clearly not like the other in terms of the RB usage. Obviously more data points is better, but that doesn't mean we can't at least discuss the data we do have so far. Of course, you're free to dismiss it as silly if you'd like as well.

I think you're getting hung up on semantics instead of the general point. No one is saying the Vikings game is set in stone as an outlier and he'll never get 20+ carries or 60%+ of the snaps again, it's just "so far" and obviously subject to change. As an owner, I'm hoping it does so starting tomorrow because every game like the last two makes it easier to identify the outlier.
I strongly disagree with anything being determined so far when one column has 2 (subjectively, as the 18 touches he got vs the Bears is a 290 touch pace) and the other has 1. But I do agree this conversation has probably played out and we can both agree to root for 20+ touches tomorrow. Browns NT is out.

 
I-ROK said:
I think it’s a fair question. If he continues on the pace he is on now, he will have roughly the same scrimmage yards as Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs in 2019. Guys people were absolutely falling over themselves to draft last year. And that’s IF he doesn’t see an uptick in use as the season goes on.
The major difference being that Taylor's value was already much higher after one game than Sanders or Jacobs' value hit even at their peak AFTER their rookie year.

Sanders topped out at 2.2 and Jacobs at 1.12 in startup ADP this offseason.  Taylor is currently 1.06 and actually went 1st overall in some of the mocks that started in early October.

 
Browns NT is out.
Colts LT - OUT.

Colts Notebook: Castonzo's absence raises degree of difficulty against Browns

NDIANAPOLIS — The Indianapolis Colts have not fared well without Anthony Castonzo.

In the 12 games without the left tackle since he was drafted in the first round by the legendary Bill Polian in 2011, the Colts are 2-10. Those are not encouraging numbers for Sunday’s showdown at Cleveland.

Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich announced Friday that Castonzo will miss the game against the Browns (3-1) after suffering a rib injury in last week’s win against the Chicago Bears.

That means the Colts (3-1) must prepare for a defense led by 2017 No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett with backup Le’Raven Clark anchoring the left side of the offensive line...
Myles Garrett wins AFC Defensive Player of the Week

 
I am strongly considering starting Higbee at flex in TE premium over Taylor this week. 
PPR? 

Rivers in the Colts WC offense gets the ball out quicker than any QB in the NFL in under 2.5 seconds.  They count on playmakers to get YAC.

Not sure how INDY splits snaps or if they'll keep in a back or chip with RBs to help 'deal' with Myles.

If someone feels confident that Taylor is going to get significant snaps then he 'should' be targeted by Philip Rivers with a lot of dump-offs/short-stuff provided INDY doesn't keep in or have RBs chip Myles.   

Best I can figure with Taylor this week w/absence of Costanza and how the Colts scheme Le’Raven Clark facing Myles.

 
I strongly disagree with anything being determined so far when one column has 2 (subjectively, as the 18 touches he got vs the Bears is a 290 touch pace) and the other has 1. But I do agree this conversation has probably played out and we can both agree to root for 20+ touches tomorrow. Browns NT is out.
One last point of clarification- I'm not focused on the raw number of touches, it's about his share of the backfield. He played less than half of the snaps and got less than half of the RB touches in that game, that's my concern (their RBs aren't usually going to combine for 40 touches in a game).

Tomorrow I'd much prefer to see him with ~15 touches and the other RBs only have ~8 than to see him with ~17 and the others have ~20. May not be as good for fantasy this week but it would be more encouraging going forward IMO.

 
PPR? 

Rivers in the Colts WC offense gets the ball out quicker than any QB in the NFL in under 2.5 seconds.  They count on playmakers to get YAC.

Not sure how INDY splits snaps or if they'll keep in a back or chip with RBs to help 'deal' with Myles.

If someone feels confident that Taylor is going to get significant snaps then he 'should' be targeted by Philip Rivers with a lot of dump-offs/short-stuff provided INDY doesn't keep in or have RBs chip Myles.   

Best I can figure with Taylor this week w/absence of Costanza and how the Colts scheme Le’Raven Clark facing Myles.
It is PPR and 1.5 per for TEs. 

 
Your call on how they split their snaps and how they deal with Myles.
Yeah you may be right. I don't hate the matchup but I think it's close to a wash versus Higbee. Either of them could put up a 2 TD game. I expect a lot of clock control in the Colts game on both sides and not a lot of plays run in a low point total script. I like Higbee better. But it's a one week call. I think the future, and probably the present, is bright for Taylor. 

 
One last point of clarification- I'm not focused on the raw number of touches, it's about his share of the backfield. He played less than half of the snaps and got less than half of the RB touches in that game, that's my concern (their RBs aren't usually going to combine for 40 touches in a game).

Tomorrow I'd much prefer to see him with ~15 touches and the other RBs only have ~8 than to see him with ~17 and the others have ~20. May not be as good for fantasy this week but it would be more encouraging going forward IMO.
35-40 Rb touches every week so far. 

 
:lol:

Anyway, here's hoping he gets more than half of the RB playing time and touches this week.
Isn't it just as plausible they want to give him a certain amount of touches, and the other RBs are variable? I don't really give a #### if its half the touches or not if he gets 18 every week. 

 
humpback said:
Unfortunately the Minnesota game has been an outlier, for the other 3 games he's on pace for ~250 touches.
Pushing your narrative perhaps.  But who's to say that the Jags game wasn't the outlier and he's then on pace for 320 touches?  Throwing out things that actually happened is silly and just becomes cherry-picking.  Bottom line is he has 75 touches in 4 games.

 
Isn't it just as plausible they want to give him a certain amount of touches, and the other RBs are variable? I don't really give a #### if its half the touches or not if he gets 18 every week. 
Touches the last 3 games:

Taylor- 28, 14,18

Hines- 1, 11, 12

Wilkins- 9, 10, 10

Seems much more plausible that they want to give Wilkins a certain amount of touches and the other two are variable.

You may not give a #### about his snap/touch percentage right now, but you will soon if it doesn't increase. He won't be getting 18 touches every week unless it does.

 
I traded away Carson to get Hopkins a few days ago. I offered Taylor, but he wouldn’t do it. Ironically, these guys are virtually identical on all of the trade value charts. 

 
Pushing your narrative perhaps.  But who's to say that the Jags game wasn't the outlier and he's then on pace for 320 touches?  Throwing out things that actually happened is silly and just becomes cherry-picking.  Bottom line is he has 75 touches in 4 games.
The Jags game is the most obvious outlier of all due to the presence of Mack. Unless you want to prorate Taylor’s touches from the mid 2nd qtr on when Mack went down. But that’s largely been ignored by some people. 

 
Jonathan Taylor rushed 12 times for 57 yards and one score, hauling in 2-of-3 targets for 17 yards in Indianapolis' Week 5 loss to Cleveland.

Taylor out-touched Nyheim Hines 14 to 5 and walked into the end zone on a four-yard cutback but that's where the excitement ends. He wasn't afforded further opportunity since the Browns took a commanding 27-10 lead in the third quarter, forcing Philip Rivers to attempt an unwarranted 33 passes. There are better days ahead for Taylor, who faces the Bengals and Lions over Indianapolis' next two games.

Oct 11, 2020, 10:08 PM ET

 
Was able to watch the entire game, thought he looked pretty good in his limited chances. Was a strange game, the Browns dominated the normally great Indy defense in the first half running more than twice as many plays, and then the second half started with a pick six followed by a kick return TD. Happy with the RB split, would be nice if he stayed on the field more in passing situations but it is what it is.

The big takeaway for me is that it seems the situation was greatly overrated. This was supposed to be one of if not the best O-lines in football and they're playing no where near that level, and Rivers is just putrid. 

Still like him a lot but definitely lowering expectations a bit going forward.

 
Was able to watch the entire game, thought he looked pretty good in his limited chances. Was a strange game, the Browns dominated the normally great Indy defense in the first half running more than twice as many plays, and then the second half started with a pick six followed by a kick return TD. Happy with the RB split, would be nice if he stayed on the field more in passing situations but it is what it is.

The big takeaway for me is that it seems the situation was greatly overrated. This was supposed to be one of if not the best O-lines in football and they're playing no where near that level, and Rivers is just putrid. 

Still like him a lot but definitely lowering expectations a bit going forward.
Welcome. Glad you’ve come to the correct realization. Coffee and pastries are in the back. 

 
Facing the Bengals this week, which should be a great litmus test for what to expect moving forward.

100yfs - do you take the over or under?

 
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Week 6 fantasy football metrics notebook: It's past time to respect Ryan Tannehill, Titans passing game

Excerpt:

3 - Jonathan Taylor is not close to a feature back

  • 52.4% of backfield touches
  • 49% of snaps
  • 8.3% of team targets
  • 11.4 routes per game
  • 19 red zone looks
  • Colts rank 32nd in rushing success rate
If you had asked me after Week 1, not only would I have said that Clyde Edwards-Helaire was going to be an easy top-five to top-eight running back in fantasy football, I would have said Jonathan Taylor was going to join him. Yet, after five weeks, Taylor has also been just all right. He ranks at RB14, ironically just one spot behind his fellow rookie.

The logic for that aggressive prediction was easy. Marlon Mack was sent to IR after Week 1, leaving the uber-talented Taylor the vast majority of the early down rushing work for a team with a hulking offensive line. Add in his six catches from the Colts opener and it looked like a clear path ahead to fantasy stardom. Taylor’s absurd 28 touches in Week 2 against the Vikings, with 20 coming in the first half, only seemed to cement matters.

It hasn’t been so exciting since. Taylor hasn’t cleared 18 touches since Week 2 and has gone under 15 twice. Peeling back the layers to the more advanced usage numbers only serves to heighten the alarm. The Colts have basically split the backfield three ways. We expected Nyheim Hines to be involved and have a clear role, but he’s run more routes per game (15) than Taylor and has 44 touches on the year, with 13 coming in the red zone. However, seeing Jordan Wilkins chip in with almost 10 touches per game between Weeks 2-4 was unsettling. We did see Wilkins fade to the background in Week 5 with just a single carry but Taylor not dominating the workload here has been a big problem.

Perhaps even more concerning for Taylor’s rest-of-season outlook is that the Colts just straight-up don’t look like a good offense. Their 32nd ranking in rushing success rate shows they’ve had trouble moving the ball and that doesn’t even touch on the fact they have a Philip Rivers problem. If Rivers is going to be a liability — and to this point, he has toed that line — the rest of the skill-position group beyond Taylor just doesn’t have enough juice to keep the scoring unit in favorable positions. 

 
Very active in the passing game today...struggling on the ground. And Frank Reich hosed everyone other than Tre Burton owners. 

 
Very active in the passing game today...struggling on the ground. And Frank Reich hosed everyone other than Tre Burton owners. 
Yep this was one of those games where the script got away from him early but he weathered it with the receptions.  Now it’s 24-21 so hopefully they can get the ground game going in second half.  That Burton TD was painful.  

 
Yep this was one of those games where the script got away from him early but he weathered it with the receptions.  Now it’s 24-21 so hopefully they can get the ground game going in second half.  That Burton TD was painful.  
Ha, good one!

 
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Jonathan Taylor rushed 12 times for 60 yards, hauling in all four of his targets for 55 receiving yards in Indianapolis' Week 6 win over the Bengals.

Taylor averaged 5.0 yards per carry but only handled 12 rushes since the Colts trailed 21-0 mid-second quarter. Even so, the rookie encouragingly handled 12 of the team's 13 carries and 16-of-22 backfield touches; his 72.7% backfield touch rate was actually a new season-high. All the pieces haven't come together for Taylor just yet, but he's Indianapolis' clear RB1 based on the usage he's received the past two weeks. Look for him to explode as a potential league winner when the Colts return from their bye in Week 8.

Oct 18, 2020, 4:22 PM ET

 
That rotoworld blurb is really bad, even for them. It wasn't 21-0 "mid"-second quarter, Indy scored a TD less than 3 minutes into it, and they conveniently left out that it was 24-21 at the half and it was a 1 score game the entire 2nd half with Indy leading from the first play of the 4th quarter on. The 12 carries for Taylor vs. 44 passing attempts from Rivers is due to poor play calling, not because of the game flow. I was kind of hoping it would have cost them the game as Rivers' INT in the 4th almost came back to bite them but then Cincy missed a FG.

Look for him to explode as a potential league winner? If he's only going to get 12 carries in what should have been cupcake match-ups against the Browns and Bengals I wouldn't expect him to win any leagues when they play the Ravens, Titans (twice), Packers, and Steelers.

Glad to see them finally phase out Wilkins and Hines (although Taylor has been great when they do throw him the ball, he should get a few of Hines' receptions IMO), but now we have to worry about them abandoning the running game completely. It would be nice if they gave him at least one chance when they have 1st and goal from the 1, but hopefully that was a fluke.

 
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It's frustrating, sure, because you expect more.

But in my PPR Zealot league, the PPG difference between the #10 spot (Connor/15.44) and Taylor at #22 with 13.15 is not really that big. It's about the same in my non-ppr league. It is going to be difficult for any rookie to get into the McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Jones, Elliot, Henry realm any way. 

Besides, the RB position across FFB seems down this year.  It just feels worse for a ballyhooed rookie.

 
That rotoworld blurb is really bad, even for them. It wasn't 21-0 "mid"-second quarter, Indy scored a TD less than 3 minutes into it, and they conveniently left out that it was 24-21 at the half and it was a 1 score game the entire 2nd half with Indy leading from the first play of the 4th quarter on. The 12 carries for Taylor vs. 44 passing attempts from Rivers is due to poor play calling, not because of the game flow. I was kind of hoping it would have cost them the game as Rivers' INT in the 4th almost came back to bite them but then Cincy missed a FG.

Look for him to explode as a potential league winner? If he's only going to get 12 carries in what should have been cupcake match-ups against the Browns and Bengals I wouldn't expect him to win any leagues when they play the Ravens, Titans (twice), Packers, and Steelers.

Glad to see them finally phase out Wilkins and Hines (although Taylor has been great when they do throw him the ball, he should get a few of Hines' receptions IMO), but now we have to worry about them abandoning the running game completely. It would be nice if they gave him at least one chance when they have 1st and goal from the 1, but hopefully that was a fluke.
The Colts will lose if they go away what they potentially do best and that is to run the ball.  Their WRs are horrible and Rivers is a turnover machine.  I can tell Hilton isn't the WR he was a few years ago.  Burton was a nice surprise however.  But when you have WRs like Johnson and Pascal and a diminished Hilton, throw in Rivers, you have a recipe for a disaster.  The only thing that can minimize Rivers' mistakes is a solid running game.

 
I am a lot more encouraged by this week. He caught passes again, was efficient on the ground and the Colts actually moved the ball and scored points.

 
The Colts will lose if they go away what they potentially do best and that is to run the ball.  Their WRs are horrible and Rivers is a turnover machine.  I can tell Hilton isn't the WR he was a few years ago.  Burton was a nice surprise however.  But when you have WRs like Johnson and Pascal and a diminished Hilton, throw in Rivers, you have a recipe for a disaster.  The only thing that can minimize Rivers' mistakes is a solid running game.
Seems obvious, but apparently Reich disagrees.

 
It's frustrating, sure, because you expect more.

But in my PPR Zealot league, the PPG difference between the #10 spot (Connor/15.44) and Taylor at #22 with 13.15 is not really that big. It's about the same in my non-ppr league. It is going to be difficult for any rookie to get into the McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Jones, Elliot, Henry realm any way. 

Besides, the RB position across FFB seems down this year.  It just feels worse for a ballyhooed rookie.
PPG don't mean a lot with so many RBs out and injured.  Sure, Nick Chubb's PPG looks fantastic, but you can't use him for another month.

In total points he's #14.  As a point of comparison, Kareem Hunt, whom the fantasy universe raves about, has 96 points this season.  Taylor has 87.

For where you got him in the 4th round (RB 20-25) he's been outstanding value. More important for lineups, he's been dependable, with 5 of 6 starts in double digits, 4 of 6 with 15 pts or more. Even his bust game wasn't a total dud (9 pts).

I don't see him as a league winner this year, but he's one of the most consistent RB2's out there.

 
Moved him for Jefferson (WR MIN) in a tough trade league. Dire need at WR and deep at RB (Henry / Jacobs / Taylor / Robinson). Jefferson also keepable in 15th round. 
 

Tough schedule down the stretch... I'd say I gave up a little as it sits, but if he continues to grow or Thielen flees down, he turns into a solid WR1. 

 
Moved him for Jefferson (WR MIN) in a tough trade league. Dire need at WR and deep at RB (Henry / Jacobs / Taylor / Robinson). Jefferson also keepable in 15th round. 
 

Tough schedule down the stretch... I'd say I gave up a little as it sits, but if he continues to grow or Thielen flees down, he turns into a solid WR1. 
Tough schedule? Indy probably has the easiest schedule in the league for RBs the rest of the way.

Edit- or did you mean Jefferson?

 
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Jonathan Taylor is averaging 4.5 yards per carry over his past four games compared to 2.7 for Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. 

Yards per carry is yards per carry, but it has been clear for weeks now that the run-heavy Colts would benefit from cutting Taylor all the way loose instead of keeping him in the 14-18 touch range. RBs coach Tom Rathman hinted it's coming. “He’s done everything that he needs to do,” Rathman said. “It’s just about getting experience. The more he gets, the better he’s going to be.” Coming off their bye week, treating Taylor like a true foundation book against the Lions' sub-par run defense would be an easy adjustment for the Colts to make. 

SOURCE: Indianapolis Star 

Oct 27, 2020, 5:27 PM ET

 
Good things do tend to happen after bye weeks, so optimism is in order. Let’s see if they actually do what they should. 
 

Also, BREAKING NEWS:

Rivers is terrible. 

 

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