RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (3 Viewers)

[LawFitz]

I have a feeling several teams are interested in JT and it only takes two of them to get into a bidding war.

I agree with this, except that even if multiple teams are interested in the player, it would take multiple teams being willing to pay him a monster deal AND give up major draft capital. That I find more difficult to imagine, but maybe. All it takes is two.

As for your strong assertions that the Colts have the leverage and control here, I think if they do, it's only slight at best. They would need to hurt themselves (i.e. pay a guy to sit on the couch this year and/or cancer up their locker room), only to watch him leave for a 2025 comp pick next offseason - and even that only if they don't sign a comparably-paid FA themselves. I sense they've bound themselves into the corner of trading him next week no matter what... Now it's just a matter of for what, which is mostly not in their control.

 

[humpback]

That's where you are off base. The Colts are in control. Taylor is under contract and they will get a comp pick next year anyway. Just play him if a trade can't be worked out. Like I said, all it takes is two teams that want him for the Colts to get what they want.

You keep saying this but it isn't true. They might get a comp pick, only if they don't sign other free agents that offset it, and it wouldn't be until the following year if they did get one.

Ballard isn one that signs big name FAs

It doesn't have to be a big name FA, it could be a couple of smaller ones. Ballard also isn't one that typically gets comp picks, they had zero last year.

Again, the absolute best case scenario for a comp pick would be a very late 3rd rounder (after the first 32 regular picks of the 3rd round), and it wouldn't be until 2025. That's only if he signed a big contract somewhere and they don't sign much of anyone in free agency. A 2025 draft pick in the late 90's overall is worth quite a bit less than a 2024 draft pick in the mid 40's say (if they get a mid-2nd rounder).

 

[JohnnyU]

That's where you are off base. The Colts are in control. Taylor is under contract and they will get a comp pick next year anyway. Just play him if a trade can't be worked out. Like I said, all it takes is two teams that want him for the Colts to get what they want.

You keep saying this but it isn't true. They might get a comp pick, only if they don't sign other free agents that offset it, and it wouldn't be until the following year if they did get one.

Ballard isn one that signs big name FAs

It doesn't have to be a big name FA, it could be a couple of smaller ones. Ballard also isn't one that typically gets comp picks, they had zero last year.

Again, the absolute best case scenario for a comp pick would be a very late 3rd rounder (after the first 32 regular picks of the 3rd round), and it wouldn't be until 2025. That's only if he signed a big contract somewhere and they don't sign much of anyone in free agency. A 2025 draft pick in the late 90's overall is worth quite a bit less than a 2024 draft pick in the mid 40's say (if they get a mid-2nd rounder).

Hey they only gave a 2nd rounder for him, yippie

 

[nittanylion]

The Franchise Tag, IMHO exists as a nod to the what the general fan base prefers, which sometimes I think, we as hardcore FF'ers are somewhat removed from.

By necessity, we follow, and are fanatical, to some degree, all 32 NFL Teams. The average NFL fan's scope is much more narrow.

What I mean is, most hardcore NFL fans who aren't hardcore FF folks, who I know, don't really care as much about pay scale fairness issues as much as they prefer roster continuity. Most of those same people (the ones I know, and there are many), do not even like the current free agency dynamics.

If they could have it their way, they're favorite players would stay on their teams for most, if not all, of their careers, and probably do see it as a greed and disloyalty issue on the players part, being that more of them are middle class or not as wealthy, and think the players make plenty of money, and that player salaries are largely responsible for the average joe to have to lay down a mortgage payment to take a family of 4 to see a game in person.

Just my ...

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Knowledgeable and douchebag are not mutually exclusive

 

[Chaka]

The Franchise Tag, IMHO exists as a nod to the what the general fan base prefers, which sometimes I think, we as hardcore FF'ers are somewhat removed from.

By necessity, we follow, and are fanatical, to some degree, all 32 NFL Teams. The average NFL fan's scope is much more narrow.

What I mean is, most hardcore NFL fans who aren't hardcore FF folks, who I know, don't really care as much about pay scale fairness issues as much as they prefer roster continuity. Most of those same people (the ones I know, and there are many), do not even like the current free agency dynamics.

If they could have it their way, they're favorite players would stay on their teams for most, if not all, of their careers, and probably do see it as a greed and disloyalty issue on the players part, being that more of them are middle class or not as wealthy, and think the players make plenty of money, and that player salaries are largely responsible for the average joe to have to lay down a mortgage payment to take a family of 4 to see a game in person.

Just my ...

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

 

[JohnnyU]

Knowledgeable and douchebag are not mutually exclusive

It would probably help if you quoted the post you’re replying to. I’ve noticed several posts like that.

 

[nittanylion]

Taylor, and/or his camp aren't doing him any favors either, in how they're handling this from their side, IMHO.

A wise fish doesn't take the bait.

 

[humpback]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

 

[SayWhat?]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

 

[zamboni]

Maybe...but remember that Dalvin Cook had a soft market for no trade comp and about 75% of what Taylor will be paid per year. Yes he is older and yes he has some legal concerns, but the only teams that expressed interest were the Jets who got him, the Pats who signed Zeke, and the Fins who stayed pat. Nobody else was even in. So where is any other interest going to come from? Founrnette and Hunt are still out there for basically free. I realize they are not in the same league as far as value, but it speaks to the positional value.

It sucks if you are a Colts fan. It really does. But look at the facts above. They tell the story. Low demand = low comp. If Irsay hadnt destroyed the relationship the easy answer would be to hold his feet to the fire and assume he will play under the tag and play well. I dont think he can make that assumption anymore. JT is not going to sacrifice himself for an owner who publicly dissed him.

Will you quit making a big deal of Irsay. JT is under contract, he has a lot more value than Dalvin Cook for a team that covets him for more than one year. JT will either get traded, play, or sit. I doubt the latter because it’s not as if he’s made a boatload of money, he’s still on his rookie contract.

You better stay away from him, he'll rip your lungs out, Jim
Huh, I'd like to meet his Taylor

 

[humpback]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

 

[Loipz]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

The dream is being a backup qb just good enough to spot start and always be qb2 but never enough to lead a team long term.

 

[3nOut]

Be prepared for a ton of nagging minor injuries and a total lack of reliability if they keep him. As a fantasy owner, it would be the absolute worst case scenario. It wont be a good scenario for the Colts either.

The mess is made. You cant unmake it. You have to find a way to clean it up now.

All it takes is two teams that want him.

Not really. All it takes is one team with one good offer and an owner willing to take that offer. At this point, we can't be certain any one of those two criterion has been met.

 

[Chaka]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

IDK, depends on so many things. Average career length is 3.3 years so you're still under your rookie contract. Let's say you are drafted somewhere mid range (so mid 3rd/4th). That puts you at about $5 mil-ish guaranteed, before taxes, so let's call it $3 million. Of course you aren't having a second job during your NFL career so subtract another three years of living expenses and let's call it $2.7 mil. That's a great head start on the rest of your life.

But what were the sacrifices that got you there?

You probably didn't get a great education because of the insane time demands of college football, which probably limits your post-football career opportunities.

You have also been subjecting your body to tremendous, repeated physical abuse since about age 16 which represents a high risk of medical complications in, virtually all of your joints plus your spine. We all live with pain eventually, but football players start a lot sooner. That likely attaches an increased medical spend to your future. In addition increased risks for liver, kidney & associated substance abuse issues. And people with chronic pain report less happiness in life.

That's not blowing smoke either, ask anyone with medical actuarial experience.

I'm speaking in risks and probabilities so there are plenty of examples of former players who don't experience these negative impacts. But going in you have no idea where you will land on that spectrum.

If I had the life experience of 50 year old me and knew I wouldn't suffer serious health consequences I could see opting for that life. I could do a lot with a $3mil payday.

But 21 year old me was an idiot, like most 21 year olds, so when my 3.3 year NFL career was up, I'd be shocked if I had anywhere near $2.7 mil left in the bank.

Not sure it's worth it.

 

[Wrigley]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

The dream is being a backup qb just good enough to spot start and always be qb2 but never enough to lead a team long term.

15 year kicker

 

[nittanylion]

If I had a son today who was interested in playing football for a living, I'd encourage him to no end to go out and be the best long snapper he ever could be.

 

[Chaka]

If I had a son today who was interested in playing football for a living, I'd encourage him to no end to go out and be the best long snapper he ever could be.

Too late, that's actually big industry already. Tons of competition.

Freakonomics did an episode on it.

 

[humpback]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

IDK, depends on so many things. Average career length is 3.3 years so you're still under your rookie contract. Let's say you are drafted somewhere mid range (so mid 3rd/4th). That puts you at about $5 mil-ish guaranteed, before taxes, so let's call it $3 million. Of course you aren't having a second job during your NFL career so subtract another three years of living expenses and let's call it $2.7 mil. That's a great head start on the rest of your life.

But what were the sacrifices that got you there?

You probably didn't get a great education because of the insane time demands of college football, which probably limits your post-football career opportunities.

You have also been subjecting your body to tremendous, repeated physical abuse since about age 16 which represents a high risk of medical complications in, virtually all of your joints plus your spine. We all live with pain eventually, but football players start a lot sooner. That likely attaches an increased medical spend to your future. In addition increased risks for liver, kidney & associated substance abuse issues. And people with chronic pain report less happiness in life.

That's not blowing smoke either, ask anyone with medical actuarial experience.

I'm speaking in risks and probabilities so there are plenty of examples of former players who don't experience these negative impacts. But going in you have no idea where you will land on that spectrum.

If I had the life experience of 50 year old me and knew I wouldn't suffer serious health consequences I could see opting for that life. I could do a lot with a $3mil payday.

But 21 year old me was an idiot, like most 21 year olds, so when my 3.3 year NFL career was up, I'd be shocked if I had anywhere near $2.7 mil left in the bank.

Not sure it's worth it.

Now imagine you're a blue collar worker, who has similar aches and pains for life, etc, but none of the financial reward. Obviously there are some people who wouldn't want to trade places, but most would in a heartbeat.

The point was, not being able to hit free agency is one of the trade-offs of getting a lot of guaranteed money regardless of performance. The vast majority of people don't have that benefit.

 

[SoBeDad]

I prefer to play the RBs we have, keep the draft picks and cap space for next year when we'll be in cap hell. In 2024, good chance we'll need to draft or sign a RT and DT. Maybe even a QB. We have a 1st and 2nd draft pick in 2024, but no 3rd or 4th, for tampering and Chubb.

I read @BobbyLayne post on RBs Don't Matter 101. We'll soon find out in ATL, DET, and perhaps MIA.

 

[Runkle]

If I had a son today who was interested in playing football for a living, I'd encourage him to no end to go out and be the best long snapper he ever could be.

Too late, that's actually big industry already. Tons of competition.

Freakonomics did an episode on it.

Well, every position on a team has tons of competition and a big industry behind it. Long snappers, kickers, specialists everywhere. But if you want to play football, not get hurt, and have a career that could last a good dozen years.... that's the way to do it

 

[kylechoffman]

If I had a son today who was interested in playing football for a living, I'd encourage him to no end to go out and be the best long snapper he ever could be.

Too late, that's actually big industry already. Tons of competition.

Freakonomics did an episode on it.

Well, every position on a team has tons of competition and a big industry behind it. Long snappers, kickers, specialists everywhere. But if you want to play football, not get hurt, and have a career that could last a good dozen years.... that's the way to do it

Good Punters are needed..

 

[socrates]

Assuming JT is traded AND the Colts do not bring in another RB, who are you favoring in Indy: Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, Evan Hull or Kenyan Drake? RBBC behind AR as the leading rusher?

 

[zamboni]

Assuming JT is traded AND the Colts do not bring in another RB, who are you favoring in Indy: Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, Evan Hull or Kenyan Drake? RBBC behind AR as the leading rusher?

I doubt they go out and spend much on an RB. They might be able to get by on an RBBC - Deon Jackson looked pretty good last year and Hull has some promise. Plus they can always get one of the retreads or late camp cuts.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Assuming JT is traded AND the Colts do not bring in another RB, who are you favoring in Indy: Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, Evan Hull or Kenyan Drake? RBBC behind AR as the leading rusher?

Moss may miss the first two weeks but would expect him to lead the committee with Jackson when healthy. Drake and Hull may get some run as well. I doubt any of the Indy RBs will be worth much though.

 

[FarFromHome]

I won't name it, but I spent a lot time on another forum. Hint hint. It shut down. In that forum the Deon Jackson love thread was absolutely bonkers. Not saying he is even in the discussion for being the guy, just saying his fan base is large. Ha ha

 

[pinkstapler]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

IDK, depends on so many things. Average career length is 3.3 years so you're still under your rookie contract. Let's say you are drafted somewhere mid range (so mid 3rd/4th). That puts you at about $5 mil-ish guaranteed, before taxes, so let's call it $3 million. Of course you aren't having a second job during your NFL career so subtract another three years of living expenses and let's call it $2.7 mil. That's a great head start on the rest of your life.

But what were the sacrifices that got you there?

You probably didn't get a great education because of the insane time demands of college football, which probably limits your post-football career opportunities.

You have also been subjecting your body to tremendous, repeated physical abuse since about age 16 which represents a high risk of medical complications in, virtually all of your joints plus your spine. We all live with pain eventually, but football players start a lot sooner. That likely attaches an increased medical spend to your future. In addition increased risks for liver, kidney & associated substance abuse issues. And people with chronic pain report less happiness in life.

That's not blowing smoke either, ask anyone with medical actuarial experience.

I'm speaking in risks and probabilities so there are plenty of examples of former players who don't experience these negative impacts. But going in you have no idea where you will land on that spectrum.

If I had the life experience of 50 year old me and knew I wouldn't suffer serious health consequences I could see opting for that life. I could do a lot with a $3mil payday.

But 21 year old me was an idiot, like most 21 year olds, so when my 3.3 year NFL career was up, I'd be shocked if I had anywhere near $2.7 mil left in the bank.

Not sure it's worth it.

And this doesn't even dip a toe into the "talent you're born with" pool, acknowledging no matter how hard some people work they still will never make it. Amazing how many people even pretend like it's reasonable to compare themselves to an NFL athlete when the last study looking at the path found of the 1,000,000+ high school football players about 0.023% get drafted into the league. And as you pointed out, getting drafted hardly guarantees you much of anything anyway. So, sure, would I have chosen to be an NFL player of my current day job? That's almost as ridiculous of a statement to make as "Well if I was born the son of the Jay Z and Beyonce...." IMO, it's idiocy in the highest degree to sit around and have the temerity to even attempt to project your own world view onto these players and rationalize how you think they should feel or react to the situations they find themselves in. They are incomparable. I imagine these people peering over the should of da Vinci painting the Mona Lisa and telling him they would have made the sky more blue.

Long story short, everyone sees an extremely small slice of the lives of people with wealth/fame and want the rewards that come at the end of a journey which they either don't understand the sacrifices it took to get there, or more commonly completely downplay the sacrifices it took to get there. Meanwhile they overestimate their own self worth, the severity of challenges they've faced in life, as well as the growth they've had in their life. My graduate thesis was on temporal extension of self and basically outside of those with mental illness, everyone suffers from it to an extent. The major difference is between those who are able to acknowledge and identify when they are doing it, and those who are blind to it whether its unintentional or willful ignorance.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I think you are absolutely correct. 100%.

I also think that most people are hypocrites who would lose their minds if the same dynamics prevented them from changing jobs. No free agency for you!!!

Maybe not if my employer would guarantee a good chunk of my enormous salary for the next several years even if I couldn't perform my job or I'm terrible at it. There are trade-offs.

But then again, maybe, if at any point in time through the performance of your job you are at risk never being able to walk normally again or losing your mind from CTE at the age of 40.

Like I said, trade-offs. I think most would gladly take the trade-offs NFL players make, don't you?

IDK, depends on so many things. Average career length is 3.3 years so you're still under your rookie contract. Let's say you are drafted somewhere mid range (so mid 3rd/4th). That puts you at about $5 mil-ish guaranteed, before taxes, so let's call it $3 million. Of course you aren't having a second job during your NFL career so subtract another three years of living expenses and let's call it $2.7 mil. That's a great head start on the rest of your life.

But what were the sacrifices that got you there?

You probably didn't get a great education because of the insane time demands of college football, which probably limits your post-football career opportunities.

You have also been subjecting your body to tremendous, repeated physical abuse since about age 16 which represents a high risk of medical complications in, virtually all of your joints plus your spine. We all live with pain eventually, but football players start a lot sooner. That likely attaches an increased medical spend to your future. In addition increased risks for liver, kidney & associated substance abuse issues. And people with chronic pain report less happiness in life.

That's not blowing smoke either, ask anyone with medical actuarial experience.

I'm speaking in risks and probabilities so there are plenty of examples of former players who don't experience these negative impacts. But going in you have no idea where you will land on that spectrum.

If I had the life experience of 50 year old me and knew I wouldn't suffer serious health consequences I could see opting for that life. I could do a lot with a $3mil payday.

But 21 year old me was an idiot, like most 21 year olds, so when my 3.3 year NFL career was up, I'd be shocked if I had anywhere near $2.7 mil left in the bank.

Not sure it's worth it.

Now imagine you're a blue collar worker, who has similar aches and pains for life, etc, but none of the financial reward. Obviously there are some people who wouldn't want to trade places, but most would in a heartbeat.

The point was, not being able to hit free agency is one of the trade-offs of getting a lot of guaranteed money regardless of performance. The vast majority of people don't have that benefit.

Interestingly, I’ve worked with JT’s dad before. He works a very blue collar job with some huge health risks. JT probably understands this more than most, as well as understanding that his big payday also allows his dad to retire from his hazardous job.

 

[Terpman22]

Maybe. Doesnt sound like thats the case but who knows.

I am not trying to be combative. I am a die hard Orioles fan so if you follow baseball at all you understand that I can relate to rooting for a team with a douchebag owner. It sucks. I feel for Colts fans here. Some billionaire that has no idea what life is actually like for 99.9% of people making decisions that impact our happiness. When you have a bad one, it truly sucks.

Funny, I'm an Orioles fan too. The pain is real. Even in a good season, an Angelos is finding a way to screw it up on some level. Born in Baltimore as was my Dad. And my Dad, amongst "a lot" of Baltimore folk hate Irsay just for being the son of the guy who bailed out of Baltimore in the middle of the night on Mayflower trucks. This Irsay doesn't seem to be different at all.

 

[packdog]

sounds like the dolphins and colts are in a standoff and neither budging. still a decent chance JT stays with the colts

 

[nittanylion]

I'm a diehard O's fan as well. I walked away from MLB entirely for 20+ years, due to 2 things: labor issues (lockouts/strikes) and what Angelos did to historically one of the best farm systems and 'The Oriole Way'.

Only got back into it when my stepson decided to pursue baseball as his main sport.

Irsay Senior was a douche for moving the Colts. Undisputed.

Again, I'm traveling abroad, and don't have time to get deep into this conversation, but what's going on between this Irsay and Taylor is nowhere near as heinous as what Angelos did to the O's or Irsay Senior did to the Colts.

Oh, and I'm pretty sure Taylor has already made enough, that if he were so inclined to assist him, that his Father could retire and not have to work again, or do something he'd rather prefer doing than what he currently is.

 

[rockaction]

Let's not forget how smart Jonathan Taylor is. His transition to life after football will be a whole lot easier than most guys. He's an extraordinarily bright person by all accounts who can find a decent-paying, non-physical labor job after it's all over.

 

[FantasyMC]

Let's not forget how smart Jonathan Taylor is. His transition to life after football will be a whole lot easier than most guys. He's an extraordinarily bright person by all accounts who can find a decent-paying, non-physical labor job after it's all over.

Like a coach or an analyst

 

[TwinTurbo]

Let's not forget how smart Jonathan Taylor is. His transition to life after football will be a whole lot easier than most guys. He's an extraordinarily bright person by all accounts who can find a decent-paying, non-physical labor job after it's all over.

Like a coach or an analyst

Yes both of those job categories consistently attract and represent the brightest and best candidates.

 

[Terpman22]

Let's not forget how smart Jonathan Taylor is. His transition to life after football will be a whole lot easier than most guys. He's an extraordinarily bright person by all accounts who can find a decent-paying, non-physical labor job after it's all over.

Like a coach or an analyst

Yes both of those job categories consistently attract and represent the brightest and best candidates.

Having immediate flashbacks of Emmitt Smith as an ESPN analyst.

 

[JohnnyU]

I have a feeling several teams are interested in JT and it only takes two of them to get into a bidding war.

I agree with this, except that even if multiple teams are interested in the player, it would take multiple teams being willing to pay him a monster deal AND give up major draft capital. That I find more difficult to imagine, but maybe. All it takes is two.

As for your strong assertions that the Colts have the leverage and control here, I think if they do, it's only slight at best. They would need to hurt themselves (i.e. pay a guy to sit on the couch this year and/or cancer up their locker room), only to watch him leave for a 2025 comp pick next offseason - and even that only if they don't sign a comparably-paid FA themselves. I sense they've bound themselves into the corner of trading him next week no matter what... Now it's just a matter of for what, which is mostly not in their control.

Here is what I read about comp picks. Let me know if it is inaccurate.

When awarding compensatory picks, the NFL uses a formula that accounts for a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. The exact specifics of the formula are confidential, but we do know it also takes into consideration a player's history of playing time (or lack thereof).

 

[LawFitz]

I have a feeling several teams are interested in JT and it only takes two of them to get into a bidding war.

I agree with this, except that even if multiple teams are interested in the player, it would take multiple teams being willing to pay him a monster deal AND give up major draft capital. That I find more difficult to imagine, but maybe. All it takes is two.

As for your strong assertions that the Colts have the leverage and control here, I think if they do, it's only slight at best. They would need to hurt themselves (i.e. pay a guy to sit on the couch this year and/or cancer up their locker room), only to watch him leave for a 2025 comp pick next offseason - and even that only if they don't sign a comparably-paid FA themselves. I sense they've bound themselves into the corner of trading him next week no matter what... Now it's just a matter of for what, which is mostly not in their control.

Here is what I read about comp picks. Let me know if it is inaccurate.

When awarding compensatory picks, the NFL uses a formula that accounts for a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. The exact specifics of the formula are confidential, but we do know it also takes into consideration a player's history of playing time (or lack thereof).

That's accurate and it's a black box model. There are some sites out there that do a good job each year of projecting comp picks once free agents have been signed.

Main point is that if the Colts sign a comparable FA in 2024 (at any position) to whatever contract JT gets on the open market, they might not receive a comp pick at all for his loss.

 

[JohnnyU]

I have a feeling several teams are interested in JT and it only takes two of them to get into a bidding war.

I agree with this, except that even if multiple teams are interested in the player, it would take multiple teams being willing to pay him a monster deal AND give up major draft capital. That I find more difficult to imagine, but maybe. All it takes is two.

As for your strong assertions that the Colts have the leverage and control here, I think if they do, it's only slight at best. They would need to hurt themselves (i.e. pay a guy to sit on the couch this year and/or cancer up their locker room), only to watch him leave for a 2025 comp pick next offseason - and even that only if they don't sign a comparably-paid FA themselves. I sense they've bound themselves into the corner of trading him next week no matter what... Now it's just a matter of for what, which is mostly not in their control.

Here is what I read about comp picks. Let me know if it is inaccurate.

When awarding compensatory picks, the NFL uses a formula that accounts for a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. The exact specifics of the formula are confidential, but we do know it also takes into consideration a player's history of playing time (or lack thereof).

That's accurate and it's a black box model. There are some sites out there that do a good job each year of projecting comp picks once free agents have been signed.

Main point is that if the Colts sign a comparable FA in 2024 (at any position) to whatever contract JT gets on the open market, they might not receive a comp pick at all for his loss.

I don't see your last statement as being part of what determines compensatory picks from what I copied above. Can you show a source that includes that in its determination of compensatory picks?

 

[Amused to Death]

The Basics and Methodology of Projecting the NFL’s Compensatory Draft Picks

 

[JohnnyU]

The Basics and Methodology of Projecting the NFL’s Compensatory Draft Picks

In a nutshell, this is the part I was interested in -

Cancel Out CFAs Lost With CFAs Gained For Each Team​

Once each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied. Cancellations work as follows, as stated in App. V, §3(a):

1. A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
2. If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value.
3. A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.

Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.

So, given how Ballard operates in the free agent market I'm pretty sure the Colts would get a good comp pick for losing JT to free agency in 2023.

 

[Chaka]

Let's not forget how smart Jonathan Taylor is. His transition to life after football will be a whole lot easier than most guys. He's an extraordinarily bright person by all accounts who can find a decent-paying, non-physical labor job after it's all over.

New avatars frustrate and confuse me.

 

[rockaction]

New avatars frustrate and confuse me.

Middle-aged dummies Top 31 Artist Countdown, Take Two. I'm doing El-P from Run The Jewels. RTJ, his solo endeavors, production, and remixes. This is his sort of solo mascot, which is a bird-looking ghost exploding in space. It's off of the I'll Sleep When You're Dead album.

Preview of one of the Top 31. Featuring Cat Power (Chan Marshall).

Just by way of explanation. Back to JT.

 

[LawFitz]

given how Ballard operates in the free agent market I'm pretty sure the Colts would get a good comp pick for losing JT to free agency in 2023.

How many comp picks has Ballard received in season's past? (Honest question; I do not know.)

 

[JohnnyU]

given how Ballard operates in the free agent market I'm pretty sure the Colts would get a good comp pick for losing JT to free agency in 2023.

How many comp picks has Ballard received in season's past? (Honest question; I do not know.)

How many players with JT's value has he had? Did they get a comp pick for Luck? I don't know if retired players are considered. I believe he got a 4th when Coby Fleener went to the Saints. I believe they had two comp picks in 2022. I'm sure you can google Colts compensatory picks to find out.

 

[Chaka]

New avatars frustrate and confuse me.

Middle-aged dummies Top 31 Artist Countdown, Take Two. I'm doing El-P from Run The Jewels. RTJ, his solo endeavors, production, and remixes. This is his sort of solo mascot, which is a bird-looking ghost exploding in space. It's off of the I'll Sleep When You're Dead album.

Preview of one of the Top 31. Featuring Cat Power (Chan Marshall).

Just by way of explanation. Back to JT.

References to hipster music I have never heard of frustrate and confuse me.

 

[LawFitz]

given how Ballard operates in the free agent market I'm pretty sure the Colts would get a good comp pick for losing JT to free agency in 2023.

How many comp picks has Ballard received in season's past? (Honest question; I do not know.)

How many players with JT's value has he had? Did they get a comp pick for Luck? I don't know if retired players are considered. I believe he got a 4th when Coby Fleener went to the Saints. I believe they had two comp picks in 2022. I'm sure you can google Colts compensatory picks to find out.

All good, was just curious. I stand by my assertion that a potential comp pick for JT is speculative.

 

[JohnnyU]

given how Ballard operates in the free agent market I'm pretty sure the Colts would get a good comp pick for losing JT to free agency in 2023.

How many comp picks has Ballard received in season's past? (Honest question; I do not know.)

How many players with JT's value has he had? Did they get a comp pick for Luck? I don't know if retired players are considered. I believe he got a 4th when Coby Fleener went to the Saints. I believe they had two comp picks in 2022. I'm sure you can google Colts compensatory picks to find out.

All good, was just curious. I stand by my assertion that a potential comp pick for JT is speculative.

There seems to be a guarded secret for the formula, LOL, my guess is a 3rd rd pick.

 

[humpback]

given how Ballard operates in the free agent market I'm pretty sure the Colts would get a good comp pick for losing JT to free agency in 2023.

How many comp picks has Ballard received in season's past? (Honest question; I do not know.)

How many players with JT's value has he had? Did they get a comp pick for Luck? I don't know if retired players are considered. I believe he got a 4th when Coby Fleener went to the Saints. I believe they had two comp picks in 2022. I'm sure you can google Colts compensatory picks to find out.

Here's a link that allows you to see all the comp picks by team, year, etc. Pretty cool IMO- https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

I think you'll be surprised at the values. The guys who get 3rd round picks sign massive contracts, like $17.5mil+ per year. A lot of the 3rd rounders are for coaches actually.

I think Taylor would be more in the 4th round pick area (and obviously it's very late, after the 4th round), and again that's only if they don't sign players to offset it. If they decide to sign one decent O-lineman, they'd get nothing. It's also another year in the future than trading for a pick in next year's draft so it loses some value that way too.

 

[dmac37]

With Jacobs agreeing to a deal, I would think this improves the odds that JT plays a full season, trade or no trade.

 

[Chaka]

Miami just lost another option with Jacobs signing.