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RB Josh Jacobs, GB (1 Viewer)

Don't be shocked if Kenyan Drake isn't a full-time RB this week even with Jacobs out, and Peyton Barber gets like 10 touches.

I wouldn't be rushing to get Drake in there, unless I had to. 


IF I start Drake this week it will be b/c I think he'll get 6-8 receptions, plus 8-12 carries, in a heavily pass-focused gameplan. Drake can do some real damage attacking the second layer of the Pitt D with RB routes, but I can also see a scenario where both he and Barber are required to stay inside to block on almost every single drop back. It's a perilous option in a matchup like this. Fantasy points may be hard to come by this week for Raiders RBs, but if anyone is suited to get some, it's Drake with his dynamic receiving ability and breakaway speed.

 
Don't be shocked if Kenyan Drake isn't a full-time RB this week even with Jacobs out, and Peyton Barber gets like 10 touches.

I wouldn't be rushing to get Drake in there, unless I had to. 


With increased rushing attempts coupled with receptions, Drake is a RB2 this week notwithstanding 10 touches from Barber.  If you drafted Drake, this is the opportunity you hoped for. 

 
With increased rushing attempts coupled with receptions, Drake is a RB2 this week notwithstanding 10 touches from Barber.  If you drafted Drake, this is the opportunity you hoped for. 
Took a gamble Jacobs wouldn’t play and started Drake over Barkley. Low bar to beat.

 
I know Jacobs has played through injury in the past but being hobbled by turf toe and ankle complications this early in the season is worrisome.

A WR needy team dropped Drake for one of the Denver guys, I’m thinking of putting in a decent bid on him. 

 
Between the injuries and Drake, it seems like his value is plummeting. 

Is now a time to buy low in dynasty leagues or is this the beginning of his fall off?

 
He already has that 3rd down/hurry up offense role. He is bound to get 5-10 touches more this week due to Jacobs being out. Fire him up in the lineup is what I say! 50- 60 yards rushing, 40-60 receiving and a touch!

** edit, wrong thread! 🤣

 
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jm192 said:
Between the injuries and Drake, it seems like his value is plummeting. 

Is now a time to buy low in dynasty leagues or is this the beginning of his fall off?
Certainly buy low in dynasty but idk who is selling right now unless it’s still a young core piece. He’s very talented but I’m not sure what’s going on with the durability 

 
jm192 said:
Between the injuries and Drake, it seems like his value is plummeting. 

Is now a time to buy low in dynasty leagues or is this the beginning of his fall off?
I don't see Drake as a threat at all to Jacobs. He's a 3rd down RB, and Jacobs wasn't getting those touches when it was Booker/Richard. Drake is basically those guys combined into 1.

Jacobs is a solid buy low in dynasty if anyone is valuing him lower than a top-20 RB going forward. He's RB15-20 range in my opinion. 

 
hamsterdam said:
I know Jacobs has played through injury in the past but being hobbled by turf toe and ankle complications this early in the season is worrisome.

A WR needy team dropped Drake for one of the Denver guys, I’m thinking of putting in a decent bid on him. 
There is a chance Jacobs is out for more than one game and his role is reduced for weeks due to the injuries.   We don’t know how bad he is injured at this point.   We will learn more next week.  

 
I'd be shocked if Jacobs wasn't back for the Chargers game in week 4, otherwise I suspect he would have been put on IR. 
It seems like a injury you give rest and play it by ear. Gibson had it last year and tried playing through it but eventually had to take a couple games off. I just would hope he is rested to get over it and not play on pain and keep aggravating it. 

 
There is a chance Jacobs is out for more than one game and his role is reduced for weeks due to the injuries.   We don’t know how bad he is injured at this point.   We will learn more next week.  
Is it confirmed to be turf toe? 

Man. That injury cost me Davonte Adams for way too much of a season. 

It’s really weird to me that he came out and played seemingly from the jump with it. There was noting I saw to indicate any sort of injury status to Jacobs, and usually the local beat writers are all over it. 

Unless the East Bay guys stopped writing about the Raiders & only the Vegas guys knew? But I was looking to draft him this year & nothing I read have a hint about any existing injury. 

Gruden sure played this one close to the vest for whatever reason. 

 
Is it confirmed to be turf toe? 

Man. That injury cost me Davonte Adams for way too much of a season. 

It’s really weird to me that he came out and played seemingly from the jump with it. There was noting I saw to indicate any sort of injury status to Jacobs, and usually the local beat writers are all over it. 

Unless the East Bay guys stopped writing about the Raiders & only the Vegas guys knew? But I was looking to draft him this year & nothing I read have a hint about any existing injury. 

Gruden sure played this one close to the vest for whatever reason. 
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32225522/las-vegas-raiders-rule-rb-josh-jacobs-sunday-game-vs-pittsburgh-steelers-toe-ankle-injuries
 

Evidently he was changing shoes in the game. This likely means a shoe that had a carbon fiber insert.

 
Unless the East Bay guys stopped writing about the Raiders & only the Vegas guys knew? But I was looking to draft him this year & nothing I read have a hint about any existing injury. 


Vic Tafur of The Athletic sold me on Jacobs last few weeks before the season. Saying people were putting to much stock in Drake being a negative for JJ,  that Jacobs lost 8 pounds and was quicker but somehow stronger, yada, yada, yada.  Even when he missed time last week in practice Vic just said it was nothing and was giving a chance to acclimate Barber onto the team. He hyped him up right up until basically kickoff last week.  Then the day after the game he writes someting about how Jacobs was primed for a big year but is already dealing with toe and ankle injuries so not good was his exact phrase.

My guess is that once training camp ends most teams only allow access for the first 20 minutes of practice, lockeroom access is not what is used to be pre-COVID  and that Jacobs must have done something recently to his toe. Either that of Vic Tafur just gets a kick out of providing fantasy dis-information.

Also and I don't know how he'd know this but Dr. Chao thinks it's more likely his ankle flared up then his toe, but again how he could know that is beyond me. I'd rather he had an ankle issue then a toe issue personally, just seems ankle can get well in a week or so but toe injuries seem to linger.

Whatever his issue is I do have Drake almost every league I have Jacobs and this was what I was pulling for last week and this week, which was for Jacobs to sit.  I ain't buying the Peyton Barber talk and I personally view Drake with no Jacobs as a better fantasy option then a healthy Jacobs but I'd still very much like to see Jacobs get well soon.

 
Vic Tafur of The Athletic sold me on Jacobs last few weeks before the season. Saying people were putting to much stock in Drake being a negative for JJ,  that Jacobs lost 8 pounds and was quicker but somehow stronger, yada, yada, yada.  Even when he missed time last week in practice Vic just said it was nothing and was giving a chance to acclimate Barber onto the team. He hyped him up right up until basically kickoff last week.  Then the day after the game he writes someting about how Jacobs was primed for a big year but is already dealing with toe and ankle injuries so not good was his exact phrase.
yeah - I’d read the Tabor pieces too. Not a peep about this being a significant injury. Kinda NBD’d it. 

Unrelated, & FWIW, I was also in the “drake not a significant threat” camp & said as much right when they signed him. They moved on from Richard, and I figured Drake would be used more as a receiver, which wasn’t really Jacob’s role. 

My guess is that once training camp ends most teams only allow access for the first 20 minutes of practice, lockeroom access is not what is used to be pre-COVID  and that Jacobs must have done something recently to his toe. Either that of Vic Tafur just gets a kick out of providing fantasy dis-information.

Also and I don't know how he'd know this but Dr. Chao thinks it's more likely his ankle flared up then his toe, but again how he could know that is beyond me. I'd rather he had an ankle issue then a toe issue personally, just seems ankle can get well in a week or so but toe injuries seem to linger.

Whatever his issue is I do have Drake almost every league I have Jacobs and this was what I was pulling for last week and this week, which was for Jacobs to sit.  I ain't buying the Peyton Barber talk and I personally view Drake with no Jacobs as a better fantasy option then a healthy Jacobs but I'd still very much like to see Jacobs get well soon.
I hope so too - he’s a very underrated RB & fun to watch. 

 
Someone bid 25% and I got outbid.
Understandable. League-winning pick-up if he can get the toe right.

not knowing specifically what’s up with the injury(ies?) makes it a bit riskier, but I probablY would bid in that range for Jacobs on the chance that he’s ok in a couple weeks. 

 
Understandable. League-winning pick-up if he can get the toe right.

not knowing specifically what’s up with the injury(ies?) makes it a bit riskier, but I probablY would bid in that range for Jacobs on the chance that he’s ok in a couple weeks. 


Wait, it kinda sounds like you think Jacobs got dropped but it was actually Drake. My bad if my wording was confusing, I did start my comment talking about Jacobs and this is his thread after all. I def agree that it would be a shocking / league winning pickup and would have warranted a bid much higher than 25%.

 
Wait, it kinda sounds like you think Jacobs got dropped but it was actually Drake. My bad if my wording was confusing, I did start my comment talking about Jacobs and this is his thread after all. I def agree that it would be a shocking / league winning pickup and would have warranted a bid much higher than 25%.
Oh!   :o  

yes, I absolutely thought you said Jacobs was dropped. 

That’s different. 

haha - ok, never mind. 25% still seems about right for Drake. But why’s Drake getting dropped when Jacobs is the one who’s hurt?!

I’m so confused. :sadbanana:
 

ETA: ok, my bad - I read that too fast. You started talking about Jacobs, then clearly said someone dropped Drake (which I can’t imagine doing) - sorry, my dog was barking half the night & this was a 4 AM market day. 4 hours sleep just isn’t enough. 

 
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Oh!   :o  

yes, I absolutely thought you said Jacobs was dropped. 

That’s different. 

haha - ok, never mind. 25% still seems about right for Drake. But why’s Drake getting dropped when Jacobs is the one who’s hurt?!

I’m so confused. :sadbanana:
 

ETA: ok, my bad - I read that too fast. You started talking about Jacobs, then clearly said someone dropped Drake (which I can’t imagine doing) - sorry, my dog was barking half the night & this was a 4 AM market day. 4 hours sleep just isn’t enough. 


Drake was dropped for a waiver claim on Tues night / Wed morning when Jacobs was just questionable and assumed healthy enough to play. Drake seemed like a hold to me regardless, I was surprised when he hit the wire.

 
Raiders coach Jon Gruden said Josh Jacobs (toe, ankle) is "very questionable" for the team's Week 3 game against the Dolphins. 

Jacobs missed the Raiders' second game of the year while dealing with toe and ankle injuries that he suffered in Week 1. He didn't practice at all last week and Gruden's comment makes it sound like he doesn't expect to have Jacobs back for Week 3. Peyton Barber saw 13 carries to Kenyan Drake's seven totes in their win over the Steelers. Both backs were ineffective runners but Drake was active as a receiver, reeling in five passes for 46 yards. Drake will be in the RB2 conversation in PPR leagues but Barber's split of the rush attempts caps his ceiling.

SOURCE: ProFootballTalk

Sep 20, 2021, 4:28 PM ET

 
I'd like to see them be very cautious with Jacobs' toe. Better to lose him for the next 2-5 games, if that's what's needed, then to have him come back early, stink up the box score, then be out again for even longer. The only way for the dreaded to heal is to rest. It's total suxor, but coming back too early is the worst case of all.

 
I'd like to see them be very cautious with Jacobs' toe. Better to lose him for the next 2-5 games, if that's what's needed, then to have him come back early, stink up the box score, then be out again for even longer. The only way for the dreaded to heal is to rest. It's total suxor, but coming back too early is the worst case of all.
Yea, the raidahs look like they can play with anyone this season, and its a long haul......I could see them being cautious with Jacobs

 
Don't have a lot of experience in IR leagues, but I'm in one this year where I have Jacobs. His status officially changed to questionable today, but Gruden is making it sound like he's unlikely to play this week. I'm thinking I'll let him ride in my IR spot and not make any transactions until he's ruled out.

 
Josh Jacobs (ankle) remained sidelined at Wednesday's practice.

With Jacobs out last week against the Steelers, Kenyan Drake got the start and played 71% of the snaps, seeing 13 combined carries and targets, but Peyton Barber (29%) was far more involved than anyone would've liked, turning his 13 carries into 32 measly yards. Drake will be a back-end RB2 against Miami if Jacobs misses again, though it will be a #RevengeGame for Drake.

Sep 22, 2021, 4:18 PM ET

 
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (ankle) participated in a non-contact jersey at Thursday's practice.

He then promptly left practice early after the first portion of warm-ups. This is our first look of Jacobs at a practice since before Week 1, and while it's encouraging for his status that he suited up at all, there have to be some pitch-count concerns with an activation for Sunday's game against Miami. Of course, Jacobs took those concerns in Week 1 due to illness and immediately scored two touchdowns on the Ravens, so fantasy managers will have to weigh the limited role against the obvious talent. Friday's practice will be important for Jacobs' chances of playing in Week 1. 

SOURCE: Tashan Reed on Twitter

Sep 23, 2021, 2:01 PM ET

 
Come to think of it, it's a Monday night game. Probably no word until tmrw.
Good call. Totally forgot about that. Given the magnitude of the game, I would think he gives it a go, but we'll see. I'm more concerned about the toe than the ankle. Thinking of swinging a trade for him, but obviously want to see where he's at.

 
Any practice reports today?
Gruden gave a press conference on Monday. He flashed one of his weird chucky smiles and said he couldn’t promise anything but that he expected to get Jacobs back on the practice field this week. We’ll see.

Jacobs has had such an unusual start to his season. It sucks that he entered the year with a secret injury that was labeled as “illness.” The missed games and the potential for the injury to linger are concerns but on the flip side so many factors are working in Jacob’s favor. The Raiders totally unproven offensive line has held their own and obviously the whole team is playing well. And Kenyan Drake has proven himself to be a complete nothingburger.

What was the offseason narrative on Jacobs?  It was do not draft, Drake will kill his value. It was do not draft, the Raiders will suck and face terrible game scripts. All of that was foolishness. Jacobs drafters were getting a late first round talent at a huge discount. The injury has obscured that a bit and it’s hard to say how bad it is or if it will linger. If you’re willing to gamble on his health I think there’s still an opportunity to get Jacobs at a discount. Looking at my league stats, Jacobs was the RB7 in 2020 and this year everything about his situation is actually better except his injury risk.

 
Gruden gave a press conference on Monday. He flashed one of his weird chucky smiles and said he couldn’t promise anything but that he expected to get Jacobs back on the practice field this week. We’ll see.

Jacobs has had such an unusual start to his season. It sucks that he entered the year with a secret injury that was labeled as “illness.” The missed games and the potential for the injury to linger are concerns but on the flip side so many factors are working in Jacob’s favor. The Raiders totally unproven offensive line has held their own and obviously the whole team is playing well. And Kenyan Drake has proven himself to be a complete nothingburger.

What was the offseason narrative on Jacobs?  It was do not draft, Drake will kill his value. It was do not draft, the Raiders will suck and face terrible game scripts. All of that was foolishness. Jacobs drafters were getting a late first round talent at a huge discount. The injury has obscured that a bit and it’s hard to say how bad it is or if it will linger. If you’re willing to gamble on his health I think there’s still an opportunity to get Jacobs at a discount. Looking at my league stats, Jacobs was the RB7 in 2020 and this year everything about his situation is actually better except his injury risk.
Problem is turf toe ain’t a joke. Idk if he plays, but I’d roster and play barber if you got him. Matchup is great 

 
Still think Jacobs is an average RB at best and is a function of volume, both for real-life and fantasy. The stats last year back that up, but I can't find expected fantasy points right now.

He was among the worst, actually.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/expected-fantasy-points-which-running-backs-were-most-efficient-with-opportunity/
I say this in the most respectful way possible, but you need to be really careful using fan-made “advanced metrics” as a part of your player evaluations. The study you link to here is interesting and has value if applied conservatively and in full knowledge of its limitations but in no way should it be used as a significant means of evaluating a RB or quoted context-free as evidence of something.

Any simplified method of grading football plays is challenged. You can’t set a fantasy points EV on a play or even a large grouping of plays without heavily evaluating and factoring in context. In the quoted study a RB who gets below average blocking and absorbs first contact earlier than other RBs is going to score poorly through no fault of his own. A RB used heavily in short yardage situations and not used in 3rd and long situations is disadvantaged. A RB who randomly has more opportunities at the outskirts of the red zone is going to grade worse than a luckier one who gets his opportunities deep in the red zone etc etc. And then there is the problem of volume.

Volume is a double edged sword for RBs. It’s the most sticky, predictive RB stat year over year but it’s also the enemy of efficiency. Coaches understand this well and it’s one reason the bellcow RB has given way to 2 and 3 way RBBCs. Subjecting a RB to incredible collision after collision has a deleterious effect on efficiency over a game, over a season, and over a career. Coaches who choose to heavily lean on one guy do it I think because they feel even a worn down version of that player is better and more trustworthy than his fresher replacements and that’s a huge vote of confidence. The fantasy community should try to understand this better and accept a drop in efficiency as a likely tradeoff for increased volume but instead the YPC crowd often inserts itself, typically coming to very different conclusions.

A good case study for this effect is Lamar Miller. Early career LM in Miami was deployed somewhat sparingly in a lot of favorable situations (fresh legs vs tired D, 3rd downs, space plays etc) and was explosive as hell and the advanced metrics crowd loved him. A season later when used as a true bellcow in Houston suddenly he was a worthless plodder who the community hated. Same player, same ability, very different evaluations. The responsibility of fully carrying a running game, doing the dirty work, and grinding out all the 3rd and 1s and goal line plays is very real.

Josh Jacobs carries the Raiders and gets the tough yards. He’s physical as hell and not fun to tackle. On film, to me at least, he runs with the power of a bull and the agility of a ballet dancer and that’s a great combo. In Jacobs I see a pretty significant talent. He’s not a perfect player (more top end speed would be nice) but he’s pretty damn good. If you watch Jacobs and see something different that’s cool, we all bring different perspectives to football and watch the game through different lenses. But let’s focus on what matters, the game tape.

 
Josh Jacobs (ankle) is questionable for Week 4 against the Chargers.

"We'll run him around the field on gameday and see how he feels," coach Jon Gruden said. He also labeled Jacobs a game-time decision. Peyton Barber handled 26 touches in Las Vegas' Week 3 win over the Dolphins, taking over for Kenyan Drake on third downs, and could again be featured as a bell-cow if Jacobs can't go. Drake would also be a viable (albeit thin) FLEX option in PPR leagues if given another chance as the Raiders' No. 2 runner.

SOURCE: Paul Gutierrez on Twitter

Oct 2, 2021, 3:27 PM ET

 
 But let’s focus on what matters, the game tape.
You demurred very nicely, and this got plenty of likes due to a convincing writing style, but you really could have just said you were a "film grinder" and have been done with it. It's the same old argument between film guys and analytics guys, and you take the side of film.

I personally weigh both authorities when evaluating an individual player. The game tape certainly matters, but so don't analysis and data. When we have sets of usable data, we can rely on it also. Jacobs's stats last year, even in context, were fair to poor. Per Football Outsiders, His DYAR was a -54, his DVOA a -12 and his success rate clocked in at 51% percent, placing him twenty-third among qualified backs. As you might know, Football Outsiders measures game data against outcomes from every play that has ever happened in football. It does not lack for context nor specialized situations. It has incorporated so much data that its measurements are a useful tool in evaluation of players. It can, in short, tell you all about somebody's effectiveness on 3rd and one.

It's nice to sound reasonable and inviting, but you've actually taken a position that is decidedly one-sided and erroneous in its assumptions about data and context.

 
You demurred very nicely, and this got plenty of likes due to a convincing writing style, but you really could have just said you were a "film grinder" and have been done with it. It's the same old argument between film guys and analytics guys, and you take the side of film.

I personally weigh both authorities when evaluating an individual player. The game tape certainly matters, but so don't analysis and data. When we have sets of usable data, we can rely on it also. Jacobs's stats last year, even in context, were fair to poor. Per Football Outsiders, His DYAR was a -54, his DVOA a -12 and his success rate clocked in at 51% percent, placing him twenty-third among qualified backs. As you might know, Football Outsiders measures game data against outcomes from every play that has ever happened in football. It does not lack for context nor specialized situations. It has incorporated so much data that its measurements are a useful tool in evaluation of players. It can, in short, tell you all about somebody's effectiveness on 3rd and one.

It's nice to sound reasonable and inviting, but you've actually taken a position that is decidedly one-sided and erroneous in its assumptions about data and context.
As a data scientist I can tell you data is so easy to manipulate. In terms of football, the tape takes priority. Every. Single. Time

 

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