RB Josh Jacobs, GB (1 Viewer)

[TripItUp]

I'm weary of Jacobs at ADP and am a huge buyer of Marshawn Lloyd at current ADP.

 

[Ray_T]

I'm weary of Jacobs at ADP and am a huge buyer of Marshawn Lloyd at current ADP.

I love his talent. but I dont like his ball security. I think hes a fumbler. sometimes that issue can be fixed with coaching, sometimes it cant. (seems to be around 50-50 across the board on average) if he loses the football a couple times early he will sit a while. just food for your thoughts

 

[TripItUp]

I'm weary of Jacobs at ADP and am a huge buyer of Marshawn Lloyd at current ADP.

I love his talent. but I dont like his ball security. I think hes a fumbler. sometimes that issue can be fixed with coaching, sometimes it cant. (seems to be around 50-50 across the board on average) if he loses the football a couple times early he will sit a while. just food for your thoughts

well aware, but rarely does it prevent talent from getting on the field...the issue is typically addressed.

 

[Big Nate]

I'm weary of Jacobs at ADP and am a huge buyer of Marshawn Lloyd at current ADP.

I love his talent. but I dont like his ball security. I think hes a fumbler. sometimes that issue can be fixed with coaching, sometimes it cant. (seems to be around 50-50 across the board on average) if he loses the football a couple times early he will sit a while. just food for your thoughts

well aware, but rarely does it prevent talent from getting on the field...the issue is typically addressed.

It can easily take you off the field too. Hey, I like Lloyd but until proven otherwise I will go with the RB that has done it before in Jacobs. I know you mentioned at ADP and that is totally fair. If Lloyd can be had at cheap then no problems. But look at guys like Kendre Miller, Tanks Bigsby, Roschon Johnson etc that were all 3/4th rounders that people had high hopes on and didn't do anything year one. Took a year for Zamir White as an example.

Lloyd to make an impact year 1 is small but long term maybe he ends up being the guy.

 

[TripItUp]

It can easily take you off the field too.

Sure, but it's a numbers game....and rarely does a player in this situation become limited because of fumbles.

 

[Big Nate]

It can easily take you off the field too.

Sure, but it's a numbers game....and rarely does a player in this situation become limited because of fumbles.

Unless the player is elite, there are lot of examples of players who get benched for the game after a costly fumble. You keep doing it, you will have your opportunities limited.

 

[Big Nate]

Jacobs situation reminds me of Monty a while back. No one liked Monty but all he did was produce. Everyone always wants the rookie to be the next guy and it doesn't often happen. The likelihood of the veteran keeping the job is more likely to happen than the rookie taking over. Monty just keeps plugging away each year. He went to DET (a better situation for him) and had a great year while splitting time with Gibbs.

Lloyd isn't even in the same league as Gibbs right now and Jacobs is at least as good as Monty if not better. Jacobs has done it before and will continue to do it this year as long as he's healthy. I sure hope Jacobs ADP stays low as it gives you a shot to have an RB 1 (top 12) where you don't have to pay a big price.

 

[Biabreakable]

It can easily take you off the field too.

Sure, but it's a numbers game....and rarely does a player in this situation become limited because of fumbles.

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

 

[menobrown]

It can easily take you off the field too.

Sure, but it's a numbers game....and rarely does a player in this situation become limited because of fumbles.

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

You don't think that had more to do with how he played? I do.

I have two things to say on Lloyd's fumbles.

I think coaches have progressed from the older school of "sit his arse" when he fumbles but at the end of the day it's a push/pull on talent vs mistakes with how long of a cord you get.

Second thing this if anyone can find me a cutup of the fumble's in his career please post it or PM me with the link. Reason I say this is because Daniel Jeremiah said he reviewed his fumbles and it's not everything it's made out to be. Said if you reviewed them all you'd see a lot of stuff like botched handoffs and the some other stuff that Lloyd got credited with a fumble but does not tell the whole story. I honestly can't say how accurate that statement is but DJ is not one to make up stuff. I searched for a cutup of his career fumbles came across one of his 3 fumbles from last year was god awful and 100% on him so that's one of his 8 fumbles I accounted for that's he's got no excuse for. But on that note he did improve his fumble rate last year, was 28 per touch his first 2 years and 42 per touch last year. Progress!!

I honestly think his fumble's is an overblown concern. His durability and pass protection are much bigger issues IMO.

 

[Biabreakable]

It can easily take you off the field too.

Sure, but it's a numbers game....and rarely does a player in this situation become limited because of fumbles.

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

You don't think that had more to do with how he played? I do.

I have two things to say on Lloyd's fumbles.

I think coaches have progressed from the older school of "sit his arse" when he fumbles but at the end of the day it's a push/pull on talent vs mistakes with how long of a cord you get.

Second thing this if anyone can find me a cutup of the fumble's in his career please post it or PM me with the link. Reason I say this is because Daniel Jeremiah said he reviewed his fumbles and it's not everything it's made out to be. Said if you reviewed them all you'd see a lot of stuff like botched handoffs and the some other stuff that Lloyd got credited with a fumble but does not tell the whole story. I honestly can't say how accurate that statement is but DJ is not one to make up stuff. I searched for a cutup of his career fumbles came across one of his 3 fumbles from last year was god awful and 100% on him so that's one of his 8 fumbles I accounted for that's he's got no excuse for. But on that note he did improve his fumble rate last year, was 28 per touch his first 2 years and 42 per touch last year. Progress!!

I honestly think his fumble's is an overblown concern. His durability and pass protection are much bigger issues IMO.

Of course I dont think fumbling was the only reason they didnt use Bigsby more his rookie season.

He sucked all around.

I did read he coughed up the ball early on though and they lost trust in him and used him less following that. I dont think it was a knee jerk reaction to fumble either. They were likely seeing issues with him in practice prior to that.

If he were actually good and they lacked other options then of course they would be willing to look past it more in exchange for what they get otherwise. Plenty of examples of RB fumbling on their 1st carry in the NFL but still doing well afterwards.

Kareem Hunt did that yet had a fantastic rookie year for example.

Devontae Booker another one who comes to mind who fumbled his first carry. While they didnt shut him down for this it creates doubt in coaches and they start looking at other options.

 

[Ray_T]

It can easily take you off the field too.

Sure, but it's a numbers game....and rarely does a player in this situation become limited because of fumbles.

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

100%. many prospects have had their playing time cut due to the inability to hold the ball.

I think coaches have progressed from the older school of "sit his arse"

I think it varies by the coach/team. and it depends on the reason for the fumbling too. if its carelessness with the football, its the bench. if its the way they hold the ball, that can sometimes be fixed with coaching. but some people just dont have the hand strength or have small hands. coaching doesnt fix that. I know it first hand because I was one of those people when I played football.

 

[TripItUp]

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

\
we'll agree to disagree...players like Lloyd find their way onto the field.

 

[Payne]

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

\
we'll agree to disagree...players like Lloyd find their way onto the field.

Same argument was said last year about Walker and Charbs.

Coaches tend to love veterans. Especially those who get paid a good amount of money.

 

[satch]

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

\
we'll agree to disagree...players like Lloyd find their way onto the field.

Same argument was said last year about Walker and Charbs.

Coaches tend to love veterans. Especially those who get paid a good amount of money.

Exactly. Some are trying way to hard to convince themselves that Lloyd is going to be a problem for Jacobs.

The only thing standing in Jacob’s way of a fantastic season is himself. If he comes out firing on all cylinders, not only will Lloyd be a non-issue, but Jacobs could be a monster in this offense.

I mean, I get it to an extent. I drafted Bigsby in a couple leagues last year hoping he was a significant factor. Sometimes you just buy into the hype, we all do do it. It’s part of the fun. But with Jacobs, it just doesn’t make sense to me. If anything, it seems like GB was enamored with Jacobs durability because they want a RB that can handle a heavy workload.

The Lloyd signing seems to suggest they’re not crazy about Dillon being the backup to Jacobs, but not that they expect Llyod to be the 1B or anything like that. I imagine Jacobs gets the bulk with Dillon & Lloyd sharing the rest. Jacobs being the only one with fantasy value in 2024, unless he gets hurt.

 

[Ray_T]

Its not rare. Happens almost every year. Ask Tank Bigsby if it matters or not.

\
we'll agree to disagree...players like Lloyd find their way onto the field.

Same argument was said last year about Walker and Charbs.

Coaches tend to love veterans. Especially those who get paid a good amount of money.

Exactly. Some are trying way to hard to convince themselves that Lloyd is going to be a problem for Jacobs.

The only thing standing in Jacob’s way of a fantastic season is himself. If he comes out firing on all cylinders, not only will Lloyd be a non-issue, but Jacobs could be a monster in this offense.

I mean, I get it to an extent. I drafted Bigsby in a couple leagues last year hoping he was a significant factor. Sometimes you just buy into the hype, we all do do it. It’s part of the fun. But with Jacobs, it just doesn’t make sense to me. If anything, it seems like GB was enamored with Jacobs durability because they want a RB that can handle a heavy workload.

The Lloyd signing seems to suggest they’re not crazy about Dillon being the backup to Jacobs, but not that they expect Llyod to be the 1A or anything like that. I imagine Jacobs gets the bulk with Dillon & Lloyd sharing the rest. Jacobs being the only one with fantasy value in 2024, unless he gets hurt.

and Jacobs is pretty sure handed as a RB. so there is also that.

I think they want the kid to learn from Jacobs while sorting out his 'issues' kid may start in a couple years. but not today

 

[TheWinz]

Fumbling isn't tolerated like it was in past years. Sure, RB's don't get as many touches now, but let's compare some high-touch RB's from past and present.

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 1990:
Walter Payton - 86 fumbles out of 4330 touches
Tony Dorsett - 90 fumbles out of 3334 touches
Franco Harris - 90 fumbles out of 3256 touches
John Riggins - 58 fumbles out of 3166 touches
Jim Brown - 57 fumbles out of 2621 touches
Total - 381 fumbles out of 16707 touches = 2.28%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2000:
Marcus Allen - 65 fumbles out of 3609 touches
Barry Sanders - 41 fumbles out of 3414 touches
Thurman Thomas - 50 fumbles out of 3349 touches
Eric Dickerson - 78 fumbles out of 3277 touches
Ottis Anderson - 56 fumbles out of 2938 touches
Total - 290 fumbles out of 16587 touches = 1.75%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2010:
Emmitt Smith - 61 fumbles out of 4924 touches
Curtis Martin - 29 fumbles out of 4002 touches
Jerome Bettis - 41 fumbles out of 3679 touches
Marshall Faulk - 36 fumbles out of 3603 touches
Edgerrin James - 44 fumbles out of 3461 touches
Total - 211 fumbles out of 19669 touches = 1.07%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2020:
Frank Gore - 46 fumbles out of 4219 touches
LaDainian Tomlinson - 31 fumbles out of 3798 touches
Steven Jackson - 23 fumbles out of 3225 touches
Thomas Jones - 27 fumbles out of 2986 touches
LeSean McCoy - 25 fumbles out of 2975 touches
Total - 152 fumbles out of 17203 touches = 0.88%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who are currently rostered:
Ezekiel Elliott - 24 fumbles out of 2421 touches
Derrick Henry - 17 fumbles out of 2185 touches
Joe Mixon - 6 fumbles out of 1854 touches
Alvin Kamara - 11 fumbles out of 1820 touches
Christian McCaffrey - 12 fumbles out of 1806 touches
Total - 70 fumbles out of 10086 touches = 0.69%

Last year, Bijan Robinson was the top rookie RB and finished RB8. He had 272 touches with 4 fumbles. If that number were 8 instead of 4, we would've saw alot more of Tyler Allgeier, who hasn't fumbled in the NFL yet.

 

[Payne]

Fumbling isn't tolerated like it was in past years. Sure, RB's don't get as many touches now, but let's compare some high-touch RB's from past and present.

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 1990:
Walter Payton - 86 fumbles out of 4330 touches
Tony Dorsett - 90 fumbles out of 3334 touches
Franco Harris - 90 fumbles out of 3256 touches
John Riggins - 58 fumbles out of 3166 touches
Jim Brown - 57 fumbles out of 2621 touches
Total - 381 fumbles out of 16707 touches = 2.28%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2000:
Marcus Allen - 65 fumbles out of 3609 touches
Barry Sanders - 41 fumbles out of 3414 touches
Thurman Thomas - 50 fumbles out of 3349 touches
Eric Dickerson - 78 fumbles out of 3277 touches
Ottis Anderson - 56 fumbles out of 2938 touches
Total - 290 fumbles out of 16587 touches = 1.75%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2010:
Emmitt Smith - 61 fumbles out of 4924 touches
Curtis Martin - 29 fumbles out of 4002 touches
Jerome Bettis - 41 fumbles out of 3679 touches
Marshall Faulk - 36 fumbles out of 3603 touches
Edgerrin James - 44 fumbles out of 3461 touches
Total - 211 fumbles out of 19669 touches = 1.07%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2020:
Frank Gore - 46 fumbles out of 4219 touches
LaDainian Tomlinson - 31 fumbles out of 3798 touches
Steven Jackson - 23 fumbles out of 3225 touches
Thomas Jones - 27 fumbles out of 2986 touches
LeSean McCoy - 25 fumbles out of 2975 touches
Total - 152 fumbles out of 17203 touches = 0.88%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who are currently rostered:
Ezekiel Elliott - 24 fumbles out of 2421 touches
Derrick Henry - 17 fumbles out of 2185 touches
Joe Mixon - 6 fumbles out of 1854 touches
Alvin Kamara - 11 fumbles out of 1820 touches
Christian McCaffrey - 12 fumbles out of 1806 touches
Total - 70 fumbles out of 10086 touches = 0.69%

Last year, Bijan Robinson was the top rookie RB and finished RB8. He had 272 touches with 4 fumbles. If that number were 8 instead of 4, we would've saw alot more of Tyler Allgeier, who hasn't fumbled in the NFL yet.

Then why don't we see more of Allgeier if he has yet to fumble? Because Bijon is better.

 

[Big Nate]

Fumbling isn't tolerated like it was in past years. Sure, RB's don't get as many touches now, but let's compare some high-touch RB's from past and present.

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 1990:
Walter Payton - 86 fumbles out of 4330 touches
Tony Dorsett - 90 fumbles out of 3334 touches
Franco Harris - 90 fumbles out of 3256 touches
John Riggins - 58 fumbles out of 3166 touches
Jim Brown - 57 fumbles out of 2621 touches
Total - 381 fumbles out of 16707 touches = 2.28%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2000:
Marcus Allen - 65 fumbles out of 3609 touches
Barry Sanders - 41 fumbles out of 3414 touches
Thurman Thomas - 50 fumbles out of 3349 touches
Eric Dickerson - 78 fumbles out of 3277 touches
Ottis Anderson - 56 fumbles out of 2938 touches
Total - 290 fumbles out of 16587 touches = 1.75%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2010:
Emmitt Smith - 61 fumbles out of 4924 touches
Curtis Martin - 29 fumbles out of 4002 touches
Jerome Bettis - 41 fumbles out of 3679 touches
Marshall Faulk - 36 fumbles out of 3603 touches
Edgerrin James - 44 fumbles out of 3461 touches
Total - 211 fumbles out of 19669 touches = 1.07%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2020:
Frank Gore - 46 fumbles out of 4219 touches
LaDainian Tomlinson - 31 fumbles out of 3798 touches
Steven Jackson - 23 fumbles out of 3225 touches
Thomas Jones - 27 fumbles out of 2986 touches
LeSean McCoy - 25 fumbles out of 2975 touches
Total - 152 fumbles out of 17203 touches = 0.88%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who are currently rostered:
Ezekiel Elliott - 24 fumbles out of 2421 touches
Derrick Henry - 17 fumbles out of 2185 touches
Joe Mixon - 6 fumbles out of 1854 touches
Alvin Kamara - 11 fumbles out of 1820 touches
Christian McCaffrey - 12 fumbles out of 1806 touches
Total - 70 fumbles out of 10086 touches = 0.69%

Last year, Bijan Robinson was the top rookie RB and finished RB8. He had 272 touches with 4 fumbles. If that number were 8 instead of 4, we would've saw alot more of Tyler Allgeier, who hasn't fumbled in the NFL yet.

Then why don't we see more of Allgeier if he has yet to fumble? Because Bijon is better.

I'm confused by this. Allgeier had 200 touches last year and everyone was clamoring for more Bijan touches? People wanted less for Allgeier.

I do expect more for Bijan this year with it being his 2nd year and a new staff.

Back to Lloyd - he is the third stringer until he beats out Dillon and Jacobs. There are 2 vets in front of him and he has a lot of work to do. Could he eventually get there? Sure but it is the Jacobs/Dillon show as GB tries to win their division.

 

[Payne]

Fumbling isn't tolerated like it was in past years. Sure, RB's don't get as many touches now, but let's compare some high-touch RB's from past and present.

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 1990:
Walter Payton - 86 fumbles out of 4330 touches
Tony Dorsett - 90 fumbles out of 3334 touches
Franco Harris - 90 fumbles out of 3256 touches
John Riggins - 58 fumbles out of 3166 touches
Jim Brown - 57 fumbles out of 2621 touches
Total - 381 fumbles out of 16707 touches = 2.28%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2000:
Marcus Allen - 65 fumbles out of 3609 touches
Barry Sanders - 41 fumbles out of 3414 touches
Thurman Thomas - 50 fumbles out of 3349 touches
Eric Dickerson - 78 fumbles out of 3277 touches
Ottis Anderson - 56 fumbles out of 2938 touches
Total - 290 fumbles out of 16587 touches = 1.75%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2010:
Emmitt Smith - 61 fumbles out of 4924 touches
Curtis Martin - 29 fumbles out of 4002 touches
Jerome Bettis - 41 fumbles out of 3679 touches
Marshall Faulk - 36 fumbles out of 3603 touches
Edgerrin James - 44 fumbles out of 3461 touches
Total - 211 fumbles out of 19669 touches = 1.07%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2020:
Frank Gore - 46 fumbles out of 4219 touches
LaDainian Tomlinson - 31 fumbles out of 3798 touches
Steven Jackson - 23 fumbles out of 3225 touches
Thomas Jones - 27 fumbles out of 2986 touches
LeSean McCoy - 25 fumbles out of 2975 touches
Total - 152 fumbles out of 17203 touches = 0.88%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who are currently rostered:
Ezekiel Elliott - 24 fumbles out of 2421 touches
Derrick Henry - 17 fumbles out of 2185 touches
Joe Mixon - 6 fumbles out of 1854 touches
Alvin Kamara - 11 fumbles out of 1820 touches
Christian McCaffrey - 12 fumbles out of 1806 touches
Total - 70 fumbles out of 10086 touches = 0.69%

Last year, Bijan Robinson was the top rookie RB and finished RB8. He had 272 touches with 4 fumbles. If that number were 8 instead of 4, we would've saw alot more of Tyler Allgeier, who hasn't fumbled in the NFL yet.

Then why don't we see more of Allgeier if he has yet to fumble? Because Bijon is better.

I'm confused by this. Allgeier had 200 touches last year and everyone was clamoring for more Bijan touches? People wanted less for Allgeier.

I do expect more for Bijan this year with it being his 2nd year and a new staff.

Back to Lloyd - he is the third stringer until he beats out Dillon and Jacobs. There are 2 vets in front of him and he has a lot of work to do. Could he eventually get there? Sure but it is the Jacobs/Dillon show as GB tries to win their division.

Yeah I did a really bad job here.

My point was simple, while fumbling is important, talent wins out in the end and Jacobs is more talented than Lloyd.

 

[TheWinz]

My point was simple, while fumbling is important, talent wins out in the end and Jacobs is more talented than Lloyd.

I agree somewhat. Yes, it stands to reason more talented RB's get more touches than less talented RB's. But I think you are overlooking the importance of ball security in today's NFL. In Eric Dickerson's first 4 seasons, he fumbled 49 times out of 1583 touches. Fumbling was kind of accepted back then, so they just kept feeding him the ball. If you do the math, you will see Dickerson was averaging a fumble every 32 touches in his first 4 seasons. What I'm saying is that level of fumbling would get you sent to the bench today, even if you were Eric Dickerson. There's a reason no active RB has even half the fumbles Dickerson had in his first 4 seasons. It's because the coaches teach it out of you, and if they can't, you are riding the pine. Just ask Belichick. You have to go back 20 years just to find a Patriots RB with 5 fumbles, and that's when Corey Dillon had 360 touches. You may say, hey wait, it's not fair to use the Patriots RB's as an example, because they typically don't get a lot of touches individually. Well, that's because Belichick has no problem benching them, so no RB gets the chance to become a fumbling machine. Since Dillon's 5 fumbles in 2004, the Patriots have had 14 of 19 seasons where the "fumbliest" RB had either 1 or 2 fumbles.

And yes, Jacobs only has 11 fumbles in 1502 career touches, so he doesn't have a "fumbling problem". I agree Lloyd is no threat to Jacobs' workload.

 

[jm192]

Fumbling isn't tolerated like it was in past years. Sure, RB's don't get as many touches now, but let's compare some high-touch RB's from past and present.

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 1990:
Walter Payton - 86 fumbles out of 4330 touches
Tony Dorsett - 90 fumbles out of 3334 touches
Franco Harris - 90 fumbles out of 3256 touches
John Riggins - 58 fumbles out of 3166 touches
Jim Brown - 57 fumbles out of 2621 touches
Total - 381 fumbles out of 16707 touches = 2.28%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2000:
Marcus Allen - 65 fumbles out of 3609 touches
Barry Sanders - 41 fumbles out of 3414 touches
Thurman Thomas - 50 fumbles out of 3349 touches
Eric Dickerson - 78 fumbles out of 3277 touches
Ottis Anderson - 56 fumbles out of 2938 touches
Total - 290 fumbles out of 16587 touches = 1.75%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2010:
Emmitt Smith - 61 fumbles out of 4924 touches
Curtis Martin - 29 fumbles out of 4002 touches
Jerome Bettis - 41 fumbles out of 3679 touches
Marshall Faulk - 36 fumbles out of 3603 touches
Edgerrin James - 44 fumbles out of 3461 touches
Total - 211 fumbles out of 19669 touches = 1.07%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2020:
Frank Gore - 46 fumbles out of 4219 touches
LaDainian Tomlinson - 31 fumbles out of 3798 touches
Steven Jackson - 23 fumbles out of 3225 touches
Thomas Jones - 27 fumbles out of 2986 touches
LeSean McCoy - 25 fumbles out of 2975 touches
Total - 152 fumbles out of 17203 touches = 0.88%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who are currently rostered:
Ezekiel Elliott - 24 fumbles out of 2421 touches
Derrick Henry - 17 fumbles out of 2185 touches
Joe Mixon - 6 fumbles out of 1854 touches
Alvin Kamara - 11 fumbles out of 1820 touches
Christian McCaffrey - 12 fumbles out of 1806 touches
Total - 70 fumbles out of 10086 touches = 0.69%

Last year, Bijan Robinson was the top rookie RB and finished RB8. He had 272 touches with 4 fumbles. If that number were 8 instead of 4, we would've saw alot more of Tyler Allgeier, who hasn't fumbled in the NFL yet.

Then why don't we see more of Allgeier if he has yet to fumble? Because Bijon is better.

I'm confused by this. Allgeier had 200 touches last year and everyone was clamoring for more Bijan touches? People wanted less for Allgeier.

I do expect more for Bijan this year with it being his 2nd year and a new staff.

Back to Lloyd - he is the third stringer until he beats out Dillon and Jacobs. There are 2 vets in front of him and he has a lot of work to do. Could he eventually get there? Sure but it is the Jacobs/Dillon show as GB tries to win their division.

Dillon was downright awful last year. He'll probably start off ahead of Lloyd in the pecking order, but I think Lloyd passes him at some point this year. It's certainly possible I'm wrong, but even if I am-- If anything happens to Jacobs, I think we'll see Lloyd get plenty of touches as I can't believe they're going to feature Dillon after his failed opportunities last year.

I don't expect either backup to have stand alone value. I think Jacobs is by far the best back on the roster, and they're going to run him into the ground this year.

 

[Ray_T]

My point was simple, while fumbling is important, talent wins out in the end and Jacobs is more talented than Lloyd.

I agree somewhat. Yes, it stands to reason more talented RB's get more touches than less talented RB's. But I think you are overlooking the importance of ball security in today's NFL. In Eric Dickerson's first 4 seasons, he fumbled 49 times out of 1583 touches. Fumbling was kind of accepted back then, so they just kept feeding him the ball. If you do the math, you will see Dickerson was averaging a fumble every 32 touches in his first 4 seasons. What I'm saying is that level of fumbling would get you sent to the bench today, even if you were Eric Dickerson. There's a reason no active RB has even half the fumbles Dickerson had in his first 4 seasons. It's because the coaches teach it out of you, and if they can't, you are riding the pine. Just ask Belichick. You have to go back 20 years just to find a Patriots RB with 5 fumbles, and that's when Corey Dillon had 360 touches. You may say, hey wait, it's not fair to use the Patriots RB's as an example, because they typically don't get a lot of touches individually. Well, that's because Belichick has no problem benching them, so no RB gets the chance to become a fumbling machine. Since Dillon's 5 fumbles in 2004, the Patriots have had 14 of 19 seasons where the "fumbliest" RB had either 1 or 2 fumbles.

And yes, Jacobs only has 11 fumbles in 1502 career touches, so he doesn't have a "fumbling problem". I agree Lloyd is no threat to Jacobs' workload.

well, if you think about it, they say a fumble is worth 50 yards rushing due to the change in field position when its recovered. so if you subtract 50 yards for each fumble lost and re calibrate the stats, you will get a whole new ranking list that likely isnt what a lot of us were expecting.

food for your thoughts.

 

[Big Nate]

Fumbling isn't tolerated like it was in past years. Sure, RB's don't get as many touches now, but let's compare some high-touch RB's from past and present.

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 1990:
Walter Payton - 86 fumbles out of 4330 touches
Tony Dorsett - 90 fumbles out of 3334 touches
Franco Harris - 90 fumbles out of 3256 touches
John Riggins - 58 fumbles out of 3166 touches
Jim Brown - 57 fumbles out of 2621 touches
Total - 381 fumbles out of 16707 touches = 2.28%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2000:
Marcus Allen - 65 fumbles out of 3609 touches
Barry Sanders - 41 fumbles out of 3414 touches
Thurman Thomas - 50 fumbles out of 3349 touches
Eric Dickerson - 78 fumbles out of 3277 touches
Ottis Anderson - 56 fumbles out of 2938 touches
Total - 290 fumbles out of 16587 touches = 1.75%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2010:
Emmitt Smith - 61 fumbles out of 4924 touches
Curtis Martin - 29 fumbles out of 4002 touches
Jerome Bettis - 41 fumbles out of 3679 touches
Marshall Faulk - 36 fumbles out of 3603 touches
Edgerrin James - 44 fumbles out of 3461 touches
Total - 211 fumbles out of 19669 touches = 1.07%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who played up until 2020:
Frank Gore - 46 fumbles out of 4219 touches
LaDainian Tomlinson - 31 fumbles out of 3798 touches
Steven Jackson - 23 fumbles out of 3225 touches
Thomas Jones - 27 fumbles out of 2986 touches
LeSean McCoy - 25 fumbles out of 2975 touches
Total - 152 fumbles out of 17203 touches = 0.88%

Here are the top 5 touch RB's who are currently rostered:
Ezekiel Elliott - 24 fumbles out of 2421 touches
Derrick Henry - 17 fumbles out of 2185 touches
Joe Mixon - 6 fumbles out of 1854 touches
Alvin Kamara - 11 fumbles out of 1820 touches
Christian McCaffrey - 12 fumbles out of 1806 touches
Total - 70 fumbles out of 10086 touches = 0.69%

Last year, Bijan Robinson was the top rookie RB and finished RB8. He had 272 touches with 4 fumbles. If that number were 8 instead of 4, we would've saw alot more of Tyler Allgeier, who hasn't fumbled in the NFL yet.

Then why don't we see more of Allgeier if he has yet to fumble? Because Bijon is better.

I'm confused by this. Allgeier had 200 touches last year and everyone was clamoring for more Bijan touches? People wanted less for Allgeier.

I do expect more for Bijan this year with it being his 2nd year and a new staff.

Back to Lloyd - he is the third stringer until he beats out Dillon and Jacobs. There are 2 vets in front of him and he has a lot of work to do. Could he eventually get there? Sure but it is the Jacobs/Dillon show as GB tries to win their division.

Dillon was downright awful last year. He'll probably start off ahead of Lloyd in the pecking order, but I think Lloyd passes him at some point this year. It's certainly possible I'm wrong, but even if I am-- If anything happens to Jacobs, I think we'll see Lloyd get plenty of touches as I can't believe they're going to feature Dillon after his failed opportunities last year.

I don't expect either backup to have stand alone value. I think Jacobs is by far the best back on the roster, and they're going to run him into the ground this year.

I agree, I stated earlier that Dillon was not great last year. But he is still a vet that knows the offense inside and out and the coaches trust him. I hope Lloyd can take over Dillon's role at some point but right now he's third on the depth chart.

 

[menobrown]

What I'm saying is that level of fumbling would get you sent to the bench today, even if you were Eric Dickerson. There's a reason no active RB has even half the fumbles Dickerson had in his first 4 seasons. It's because the coaches teach it out of you, and if they can't, you are riding the pine.

I'm not seeing where you are drawing this conclusion.

 

[eighsse2]

What I'm saying is that level of fumbling would get you sent to the bench today, even if you were Eric Dickerson. There's a reason no active RB has even half the fumbles Dickerson had in his first 4 seasons. It's because the coaches teach it out of you, and if they can't, you are riding the pine.

I'm not seeing where you are drawing this conclusion.

Maybe the conclusion is just assumed by @TheWinz for lack of any other option. What other conclusion could there be to those decreasing fumble numbers? Maybe guys are taught now to go more for the tackle and less for the forced fumble?

 

[menobrown]

Jacobs to me projects for around 55-60% of the RB workload. Will be a significant drop from what he had with the Raiders.

Lloyd likely eats up most of the 40-45% of the work, don't really think his fumbling is much of an issue to GB. Don't mean any offense, truly, just feels like living room scouts feel like they stumbled on a nugget of key info that the NFL overlooked and want to keep chewing on it. They know the player they made the 4th RB chosen in the draft after signing Jacobs. But even if he full on face planted, they'd just roll out Dillon for that 40-45% workload like they have been doing the last few years.

 

[menobrown]

What I'm saying is that level of fumbling would get you sent to the bench today, even if you were Eric Dickerson. There's a reason no active RB has even half the fumbles Dickerson had in his first 4 seasons. It's because the coaches teach it out of you, and if they can't, you are riding the pine.

I'm not seeing where you are drawing this conclusion.

Maybe the conclusion is just assumed by @TheWinz for lack of any other option. What other conclusion could there be to those decreasing fumble numbers? Maybe guys are taught now to go more for the tackle and less for the forced fumble?

That's two different subjects to me.

Why are people fumbling less is one topic.

What RB's who are playing well are getting benched for fumbled is the second topic.

I'm failing to see anything suggesting that second topic is taking place. I mean with any RB it can just get to much, but I'm just not seeing careers ended or players who perform well not getting extremely long leashes over some fumbles.

 

[Ray_T]

all I am saying is there have been a number of RB's benched because they cannot hold onto the football.

I suppose we could go get a list, but at the end of the day either you believe the fumbling will keep a player off the field or you dont. Personally I have seen guys benched enough times to believe its a real thing. but I also acknowledge its done on a case by case basis. some coaches will bench you if you fumble. others will not. Quite often what determines that is if the coach feels he has someone of decent quality that can step into that roster spot for a time.

so teams deep at the RB position dont need to put up with it. they'll just go next man up. Teams without the depth maybe have no choice.

 

[TheWinz]

I'm failing to see anything suggesting that second topic is taking place. I mean with any RB it can just get to much, but I'm just not seeing careers ended or players who perform well not getting extremely long leashes over some fumbles.

I think we can all agree the better the RB, the longer the leash. It's the length of that leash we disagree on, and I say the leash has shrunk over the years. As I said upthread, Dickerson averaged 1 fumble every 32 touches for his first 4 years in the league. And since he was not benched for his fumbles, logic says his leash was at least 1 fumble every 32 touches long. I am asserting we will never see another RB in NFL history to have even 1 season with a 1 fumble every 32 touches leash again. And by that, I don't mean some backup getting 4 fumbles in 100 touches, or some RB who muffs punts. I'm talking about a team's lead RB who has at least 250 touches. Doing the 1 fumble every 32 touches math, I am saying there will never be another season where a RB has:
13 fumbles in 416 touches
12 fumbles in 384 touches
11 fumbles in 352 touches
10 fumbles in 320 touches
9 fumbles in 288 touches
8 fumbles in 256 touches

Even CMC, Bijan, or Breece would be benched nowadays before they reached the numbers above, so we won't be able to witness it. Kinda like canines, fumbling can and has been bred out of RB's over the years.

 

[menobrown]

I'm failing to see anything suggesting that second topic is taking place. I mean with any RB it can just get to much, but I'm just not seeing careers ended or players who perform well not getting extremely long leashes over some fumbles.

I think we can all agree the better the RB, the longer the leash. It's the length of that leash we disagree on, and I say the leash has shrunk over the years. As I said upthread, Dickerson averaged 1 fumble every 32 touches for his first 4 years in the league. And since he was not benched for his fumbles, logic says his leash was at least 1 fumble every 32 touches long. I am asserting we will never see another RB in NFL history to have even 1 season with a 1 fumble every 32 touches leash again. And by that, I don't mean some backup getting 4 fumbles in 100 touches, or some RB who muffs punts. I'm talking about a team's lead RB who has at least 250 touches. Doing the 1 fumble every 32 touches math, I am saying there will never be another season where a RB has:
13 fumbles in 416 touches
12 fumbles in 384 touches
11 fumbles in 352 touches
10 fumbles in 320 touches
9 fumbles in 288 touches
8 fumbles in 256 touches

Even CMC, Bijan, or Breece would be benched nowadays before they reached the numbers above, so we won't be able to witness it. Kinda like canines, fumbling can and has been bred out of RB's over the years.

Thanks for your reply, will agree to disagree with your conclusion, do not feel RB's have shorter leashes now.

 

[Rookiefever]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

 

[TheWinz]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

 

[Biabreakable]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

 

[eighsse2]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

99 is a lot more than slightly more than 57. Not trying to correct you, just reinforcing what you're saying. I'd be a bit surprised to see Lloyd out-touch Dillon at all.

 

[Biabreakable]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

99 is a lot more than slightly more than 57. Not trying to correct you, just reinforcing what you're saying. I'd be a bit surprised to see Lloyd out-touch Dillon at all.

Well Mike Clay knew things. So its interesting.

I havent been tracking the Packers enough to have a feel for such a large reduction in Dillons opportunity.

 

[Rookiefever]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

Three years ago Aaron jones was peak. While I agree the 141 for the rest of the pack is high it would be my safe projection simply because jacobs and Dillon weren’t very attractive options with the ball last year. Expecting better numbers isn’t something I’m willing to risk and I’ll draft/trade according to that. This is new territory and I’d rather miss in this direction than over pay and miss the other way. Gb rb three and four are better than they get credit for imo.

 

[Rookiefever]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

Three years ago Aaron jones was peak. While I agree the 141 for the rest of the pack is high it would be my safe projection simply because jacobs and Dillon weren’t very attractive options with the ball last year. Expecting better numbers isn’t something I’m willing to risk and I’ll draft/trade according to that. This is new territory and I’d rather miss in this direction than over pay and miss the other way. Gb rb three and four are better than they get credit for imo.

At cost I’m only taking Lloyd at this point.

 

[ghostguy123]

Unless something happens like injury, I don't see Lloyd getting 40% of the touches. That seems way off to me

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

99 is a lot more than slightly more than 57. Not trying to correct you, just reinforcing what you're saying. I'd be a bit surprised to see Lloyd out-touch Dillon at all.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dillon gets cut. It all depends on how quickly Lloyd looks like a pro who the team can count on. Dillon sucks, and the team knows they botched that pick 4 years ago.

 

[TheWinz]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

Three years ago Aaron jones was peak. While I agree the 141 for the rest of the pack is high it would be my safe projection simply because jacobs and Dillon weren’t very attractive options with the ball last year. Expecting better numbers isn’t something I’m willing to risk and I’ll draft/trade according to that. This is new territory and I’d rather miss in this direction than over pay and miss the other way. Gb rb three and four are better than they get credit for imo.

262, 306, 271, 393, 270

These are Jacobs yearly touches for the first 5 years. He has averaged 20.6 touches thus far. I know he's changed teams, but do you think his workload is gonna drop down to around 11 touches per game?

 

[menobrown]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

99 is a lot more than slightly more than 57. Not trying to correct you, just reinforcing what you're saying. I'd be a bit surprised to see Lloyd out-touch Dillon at all.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dillon gets cut. It all depends on how quickly Lloyd looks like a pro who the team can count on. Dillon sucks, and the team knows they botched that pick 4 years ago.

I think it depends more of if a third RB pushes Dillon but I'd classify myself as being mildly surprised if he was cut for two reasons.

He's been the lesser of about a 55-45 workload split with Jones the last few years. They know he's not great by now and why they worked so hard to upgrade but that familiarity and what they likely view as dependability probably goes a long way with LaFluer, especialy on a team with a lot of young/new players.

The contract is the biggest reason though. He's got some odd one year extension where he can be paid about $2.5M but only $1.2 is a cap charge. That's hovering in league minimum type of range, feel like the reasons I stated in the paragraph above would make a league minimum type worth a roster spot.

But Lloyd's going to be the #2, though it's a RBBC offense, will be when Jacobs is healthy, will be more so if he's out.

 

[Rookiefever]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

Three years ago Aaron jones was peak. While I agree the 141 for the rest of the pack is high it would be my safe projection simply because jacobs and Dillon weren’t very attractive options with the ball last year. Expecting better numbers isn’t something I’m willing to risk and I’ll draft/trade according to that. This is new territory and I’d rather miss in this direction than over pay and miss the other way. Gb rb three and four are better than they get credit for imo.

262, 306, 271, 393, 270

These are Jacobs yearly touches for the first 5 years. He has averaged 20.6 touches thus far. I know he's changed teams, but do you think his workload is gonna drop down to around 11 touches per game?

If he looks better than last year and he stays healthy there is definitely room for improvement. Just not comfortable projecting that for him.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Jacobs current value could be a steal. Last year was a tough year in LV (for everyone). He's in a better spot right now (better offence, better QB, more scoring opportunities) and is signed to be the lead guy. I've had Dillon on my one dynasty team for years and he's done nothing but disappoint. Fun fact, Jacobs and Dillon are the same age.

I do like Lloyd but he has a lot to pick up going into the NFL. Everyone always wants the rookie to instantly come in and take over but that's not how it goes. Jacobs is going to get all he can eat to start the season.

Good points. This reminds me a lot of last year when David Montgomery went from Chicago to Detroit. Many were not allowing for the upgrade in offense, only going by what they saw the last couple years on the previous team. And Monty had to share the ball with Gibbs.

 

[-OZ-]

This reminds me a lot of last year when David Montgomery went from Chicago to Detroit. Many were not allowing for the upgrade in offense, only going by what they saw the last couple years on the previous team. And Monty had to share the ball with Gibbs.

Jacobs > Monty; Lloyd <<<<< Gibbs.

 

[menobrown]

Unless something happens like injury, I don't see Lloyd getting 40% of the touches. That seems way off to me

Dillon was in the 45% range I believe in games Jones was healthy the last few years. Seems plausible to me, depends if they want to go with 2 or 3 RB's in the rotation.

One way or another I only think Jacobs is in line for something in the 55-60% share.

 

[Mitchie]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

99 is a lot more than slightly more than 57. Not trying to correct you, just reinforcing what you're saying. I'd be a bit surprised to see Lloyd out-touch Dillon at all.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dillon gets cut. It all depends on how quickly Lloyd looks like a pro who the team can count on. Dillon sucks, and the team knows they botched that pick 4 years ago.

Really doubt Dillon gets cut, he's been mediocre sure and disappointed a lot of fantasy owners but he's not bad. I mean you've got players like Trey Sermon projected as the #2 in Indy, Dillon can filll a role as the #3 at worst.

 

[TripItUp]

Lloyd is the best RB on this team outside of the tackles and I don't think it's particularly close....I have him at 150 touches and that feels closer to his floor than ceiling. He is the RB of the future and Jacobs/Dillon may not even be on the roster in 2025.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Lloyd is the best RB on this team outside of the tackles and I don't think it's particularly close....I have him at 150 touches and that feels closer to his floor than ceiling. He is the RB of the future and Jacobs/Dillon may not even be on the roster in 2025.

Dillon will absolutely NOT be on the roster in 2025. I’m confident about that.

Jacobs has a reasonable shot of being around in 2025, but it depends on how he performs, how his body holds up, and how Lloyd progresses in 2024.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Lots of jones vs jacobs talk in here lately. The real question is jacobs vs Dillon. Both were pretty bad last year imo. If that repeats I could see Wilson getting more run than anyone is accounting for. I think rn I’d only be comfortable projecting 40% jacobs , 30% Dillon and 30% for the rest. Not a backfield I’m willing to invest highly in this year even thought it is a very enticing offense.

In the last 3 seasons, GB RB's have 436, 498, and 480 touches. That's an average of 471 touches. Using your percentages, that would give Jacobs 188 touches, Dillon 141 touches, and 141 for the rest. Those numbers look very wrong to me.

FWIW Mike Clay has Green Bay with 464 RB touches which is close to the 3 year average.

He has Jacobs with 298 Lloyd with 99 Dillon with 57.

The last 3 seasons Dillon has had 200 or more touches in each.

I didnt spend a lot of time reading about Dillon but its my understanding that he took a very team friendly contract.

Clay seems to think Dillons opprtunity will be something like 70% less than it has been. He has the rookie with slightly more than Dillon.

I would be more inclined to split the difference here and project Dillon for 125 or so touches.

99 is a lot more than slightly more than 57. Not trying to correct you, just reinforcing what you're saying. I'd be a bit surprised to see Lloyd out-touch Dillon at all.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Dillon gets cut. It all depends on how quickly Lloyd looks like a pro who the team can count on. Dillon sucks, and the team knows they botched that pick 4 years ago.

I think it depends more of if a third RB pushes Dillon but I'd classify myself as being mildly surprised if he was cut for two reasons.

He's been the lesser of about a 55-45 workload split with Jones the last few years. They know he's not great by now and why they worked so hard to upgrade but that familiarity and what they likely view as dependability probably goes a long way with LaFluer, especialy on a team with a lot of young/new players.

The contract is the biggest reason though. He's got some odd one year extension where he can be paid about $2.5M but only $1.2 is a cap charge. That's hovering in league minimum type of range, feel like the reasons I stated in the paragraph above would make a league minimum type worth a roster spot.

But Lloyd's going to be the #2, though it's a RBBC offense, will be when Jacobs is healthy, will be more so if he's out.

A very fair take.

 

[Faust]

Josh Jacobs has lofty aspirations with Packers: 'I have a real goal of legacy'