Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am stupid and thought Chris Thompson. I still have Hill over Darwin in redraft but it is a bit closer than I made it out.
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RB Justice Hill, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BigTex
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah Chris isn’t really on my radar this year
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah, he is perfectly fine end of draft ppr or half ppr guy in deep leagues or leagues with lots of flex spots but Chris doesn't have the season long upside of Justice, Darwin, etc.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Rounds 10-15, mixed in with rookie RBs I’m also targeting satellites (Samuels, DJJ, Himes, Lewis) or Breida.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bush's problem wasn't that he came into the league too early, his problem was that he couldn't break an arm tackle to save his life.
Hill ran through more tackles in his last preseason game than Bush did in his entire career.
If Hill can catch even close to as well as Bush could then he is a much better player.
pantherclub
Footballguy
We just not gonna talk about this spin move cuz there was a penalty called?
https://twitter.com/osufreak82/status/1164703469858709504?s=21
https://twitter.com/osufreak82/status/1164703469858709504?s=21
People have mentioned Kamara as a comparison from a skill set perspective but I really think that Hill profiles similar to Jamaal Charles.
They have similar builds and similar speed scores.
Jamaal Charles was always known for his straight line breakaway speed, but he had a lot of shiftiness to his game as well.
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I've gone all in on Justice from a fantasy perspective and have acquired him in 100% of the leagues I'm in.
They have similar builds and similar speed scores.
Jamaal Charles was always known for his straight line breakaway speed, but he had a lot of shiftiness to his game as well.
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I've gone all in on Justice from a fantasy perspective and have acquired him in 100% of the leagues I'm in.
LongDuckDong
Footballguy
I have to ask why he isn't getting more love in rookie rankings.
My league happens to have a late rookie draft and I can't see an obviously better selection after Sanders at 3. He has current year value plus upside as feature back in a run offense. Someone talk me down!
My league happens to have a late rookie draft and I can't see an obviously better selection after Sanders at 3. He has current year value plus upside as feature back in a run offense. Someone talk me down!
kittenmittens
Footballguy
He has competition for touches and probably wont get as much passing game work as he should. With Lamar Jackson instead of Brees, you're not getting any Kamara style passing game work as LJax will just run with it.
I like the player but the situation is not excellent for fantasy unless they really game plan Hill the ball a lot.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Just my 2 cents, but I don't see a feature back. Hill is a hell of a pass catcher, but running between the tackles will be a struggle. A Tarik Cohen sort, whose maybe a little better at rushing.
As far as immediate value, @Kitten Mittens makes good points. I don't think Hill gets you much in this offense this year. The Ravens won't pass it more than 470 times maybe. Lemar Jackson, instead of dump offs will just run it. To me, this offense is not built on a foundation of using the running back in the passing game. Which might not bode well for Hill in the future either.
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VikingFrog
Footballguy
Choo Choo. I’m right their with you.
He doesn't cost much. At the end of redraft and even can be had in free agency in a few leagues.
Anything happens to Ingram and you have a lot of upside in a run based offense with a mobile QB.
He’s as good as a lottery ticket as you can find.
strong
Footballguy
he's been climbing all offseason in ADP. he's getting drafted around 2.01 now. was going around 3.05 at the NFL draft.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Took him in the 11th, a few picks after Thompson & two rounds before I scooped up Singletary (before final cuts.)
I actually think he’ll put up decent numbers even with a healthy Ingram. Has a good PPR floor and they’ll lead the league in rushing attempts.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Really can't believe how quiet this thread is. Really kinda baffled. He lit up the combine, had a solid college career (started over Chris Carson as a true freshman) and has definitely popped on the field this preseason. Even more surprised to see him ranked in some updated Top 200s in the 170s+ today. JMO This guy is a potential league winner.
Wanted to wait til my auctions were done today but he was definitely #1 RB sleeper priority with me whether I grabbed Ingram or not. JMO There's a clear path to value here whether Ingram's healthy or not. He's simply way more explosive than 30 year old Ingram and Gus and won't need more than dozen touches/game for fantasy value IMO. It will also keep Ingram healthy. On team that will likely lead the league in rushes with a solid O-line.
Wanted to wait til my auctions were done today but he was definitely #1 RB sleeper priority with me whether I grabbed Ingram or not. JMO There's a clear path to value here whether Ingram's healthy or not. He's simply way more explosive than 30 year old Ingram and Gus and won't need more than dozen touches/game for fantasy value IMO. It will also keep Ingram healthy. On team that will likely lead the league in rushes with a solid O-line.
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TZMarkie
Footballguy
Love it.
I've been all over this guy in the offseason, and I now own him in 3/3 redraft leagues. (drafting again tomorrow, and will likely try and make it 4/4)
I pointed it out in the RB Lotto ticket thread, but there is a clear path to massive production. And now, even Kenneth Dixon is gone.
"In what should be one of the most run heavy offenses in the league, sign me up as looking to invest in what might be the best lottery ticket scenario you could ask for".
For the first time in a long time, I'm actually excited about the Ravens run game.
TZM
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Well, injuries can and do happen. (Not that I'm hoping something happens to Ingram, but its a part of our game)
You can get Hill in rounds 12 and beyond, right? What other pick are you going to snag that late that has the potential to be a king maker?
Hill is the perfect blend of high upside, strong talent and he is going super late in drafts. I draft these type guys not because my fantasy teams can live without them, but I tend to always have 2-3 of these guys on my bench in case of injury or a situational change.
The fact he is going to be on a team that will be one of the most run heavy in the league is merely icing on the cake.
There is a great chance he just rots on my bench, sure, I get it. But if something happens to Ingram, he would likely be one of the most popular waiver adds of the year.
Give me a lottery ticket like this all day every day, as opposed to a backup QB, or some WR5 type guy I will never start.
TZM
LawFitz
Footballguy
This makes a ton of sense, but my backup QB is Brees and my WR5 is on the waiver wire, thx to Shady McChief. Different strokes, almost always on these boards, which makes it hard to contextualize.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I assume you mean Gus Edwards....?
I owned him last year, and watched him play. (I even like the guy) But a true sparkler of a talented RB he is NOT.
But lets face it, part of our FF game is so much more situational and opportunity, not merely talent. I know full well he might not pan out this season.
Once I get into the 11-12+ rounds in my drafts, my team has already basically been filled out. (Err, not K and Defense lol) But then I'm shooting for the moon with RB lottery tickets. In our leagues we only have 6 bench spots, but you can bet your a$$ I have at least 4 RBs on my bench. Its just a sad fact that RBs go down, and are injured at a higher rate than at the other positions. Hey, those guys take a pounding, I have a lot of respect for them, but they DO get injured.
I see you mentioned having Brees as your backup QB. I won't turn this into a "who all is on your roster" type post. But most all of the guys in my leagues, the ones with backup QBs at least....... they are the same guys that text me #####ing late in the season that there are no good RBs on the wire.
And by no means am I saying you are that guy, I'm just making a point. If you have Brees as a backup, I'm assuming you have someone "elite" you are starting over him.
Whenever I see that, I think, "Well, he should package Brees + something to get a RB1 or a WR1 upgrade".
The exact same thing can be said for my bench RB "lottery tickets".
Like, in another thread I mentioned owning LATAVIUS MURRAY in 3 leagues. I didn't draft him to be a starter, (well, unless the black plague happens and infects all 6-7 of my RBs lol) but suppose Kamara goes down. Most of the Kamara owners will be licking their chops to get Murray to fill in that void. And again, I will be looking to upgrade at a weak position when that happens.
Not that I think I am "cutting edge" or anything, but I have never been a big fan of a backup QB. I look at it like this, how much of a difference will Brees(or anyone) make over a streamer QB you can pick off the wire? Not much, maybe a few points. You should be able to pick and choose a streamer that will be close. (I'm assuming a typical 10-12 man redraft league that is) Obviously, all leagues are different, and you may well be in a league that doesn't have ANY QBs on the wire....so I'm not passing judgement on that.
But in most 10-12 team redraft leagues getting a backup QB isn't something I believe in.
Interesting stuff.
TZM
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I guess that's where we differ. I think Hill will be their change of pace guy......with Ingram. Or the change of pace guy.....with Gus (if Ingram is injured). Gus IMO won't be a factor (for long...if at all) unless Ingram is hurt.
I'd roster Hill over any backup QB in a standard start 1-QB league personally. I don't ever roster a backup QB in a 1QB league with 18-20 man standard benches. Waste of a roster space IMO. Besides, how fun is it to celebrate your backup QB outscoring your starter in any given week? You can always find QB talent on the wire. FFS JOSH ALLEN (!!!) lead all QBs in scoring Weeks 12 on last year.
Reward >>>>>>> Risk with Justice Hill. He's a guy you can get for end of your bench. If he's not getting the PT you like, then an easy cut. You can always then go grab some waiver wire QB like Stafford/Carr/Darnold/Foles/Flacco/Dalton/etc if you need a bye week QB starting Week 4 and so forth.
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TZMarkie
Footballguy
I do think Hill comes in to a role soon, so I agree on that. But it may not be a very big one.......yet anyway.
I tend to get long winded, (like my above response)
but your last line is what it all boils down to. He is an easy cut in weeks 1-5 or early season, if you don't like how that situation is panning out. Just like all lottery tickets, there are plenty of losers before you hit on one.I just know I like being that guy late season, you know..... the one where the other league members say "How did you get so lucky to have all those starting RBs?"
Meanwhile they have WR4-5 type guys clogging their bench from a piss poor draft.
TZM
LawFitz
Footballguy
Context is ever the driver.
I play in ten-team short bench leagues. Yes that means more QBs on the wire, bit not more elite QBs. This particular league is 6 per pass TD, magnifying that last statement. Brees is my backup to Mahomie, except when Saints are at home and Chiefs are roading a stout D. Like week 1 this year. Other than that, Brees is elite QB insurance and keep away from my league mates.
Is he worth more than an unproven (yet admittedly) very exciting but undersized rookie RB, who likely won't ring cowbell unless two big dawgs go down ahead of him. I think so.
But... Context.
I play in ten-team short bench leagues. Yes that means more QBs on the wire, bit not more elite QBs. This particular league is 6 per pass TD, magnifying that last statement. Brees is my backup to Mahomie, except when Saints are at home and Chiefs are roading a stout D. Like week 1 this year. Other than that, Brees is elite QB insurance and keep away from my league mates.
Is he worth more than an unproven (yet admittedly) very exciting but undersized rookie RB, who likely won't ring cowbell unless two big dawgs go down ahead of him. I think so.
But... Context.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
The leagues I play in are 6pt passing TDs as well. I really don't think you need a backup to Mahomes, but its all in what you like, and what you are comfortable with.
You mention this, like you are going to trot out Brees over Mahomes several times a year. Uh, really? I've never owned Mahomes, but isn't he nearly in the "no way I'm benching him" category?
Now, I do like the idea of playing "keep away" from your league mates, so I appreciate that aspect for sure. In fact its very rarely written about or discussed in fantasy circles....which is a shame, its part of our game too.
Like you say, its context. I never said I would advise cutting an important roster staple or player to snag Justice Hill, (or any lottery type back) but he is on my benches for sure....at least for the early part of the season until the byes start weighing heavily on us.
I think we just disagree on the value of a second QB to our rosters. No worries, thats just a difference of opinion.
In fact I hate even sitting my starter and having a second QB "clogging up my roster" for my starters bye week.
TZM
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just to add some context: Ravens RBs had 368 carries and 70 receptions last year. I am not sure how big a chunk we expect Ingram to get, but assuming Hill continues to look good, I see room for 120 carries and 30 receptions with room for a lot more if the 30 year old already caught using PED before Ingram can't hack it the whole season.
rockaction
Footballguy
Future=now?
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Got him as a FA after the draft. I mean, if Buck Allen was a decent play some weeks, Hill is a no-brainer, especially if he's a lotto ticket at the end of our benches.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Cant wait.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Is Lamar Jackson going to dump passes off to RBs enough? Flacco couldn't run at all.
The offense's run between the Flacco offense and the LJackson offense are very different.kittenmittens said:
Flacco was known for checking down to his RBs early and often and it resulted in a fairly big volume of receptions for his RB's.
You're not going to see that as much in a Lamar led offense, but you will see option plays incorporated that you never saw in a Flacco offense and you'll likely see more designed routes for the RB's out of the backfield. You're also likely to see an overall larger volume of rushing attempts under the Lamar based offense.
We also haven't seen a fully developed Lamar Jackson.. how is his passing game going to develop, how will his run game evolve, and ultimately how the Ravens offense will evolve and adapt with him as he develops his overall game.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Both Yahoo and Rotoworld now have him headlining their WW RB pickups.
Someone's bout to get some more attention
Someone's bout to get some more attention
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I looked at ownership percentages across several platforms this morning & I’m shocked he’s only 30% or less owned on many of them. Maybe people manage by box scores instead of film, and wrongly conclude he looked average because of low yards per touch?Craig_MiamiFL said:Both Yahoo and Rotoworld now have him headlining their WW RB pickups.
Someone's bout to get some more attention
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Hill or Duke?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I guess it comes down to role. I’m not worried about Hyde. I think Duke is an every down back being spelled by Hyde. Currently Hill is just spelling ingram but in a run heavy offense and he definitely has stand alone value now. But I couldn’t put him over duke until he supplants ingram. Which I think he will.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I prefer Hill but am wondering where this is coming from. Baltimore was near the bottom of the league in targets to RBs (as was Houston) while having a better receiving back than the Texans (Ty Montgomery vs. Tyler Ervin).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I guess what I mean is that they're always seemed to have a receiving back. or maybe I'm thinking back to the Flacco days... Buck Allen always seemed to have standalone value
skol asylum
Footballguy
On the train in my redraft. Just dropped Pollard for him. Of course I'm an Ingram owner in my dynasty so I'm hoping for different results there.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Hill if you’re looking for the highest floor, RB1 potential. AJ if you need a solid WR2 for a few years.
I like the direction the Ravens are trending in. Not sure it’s going to work - but they are loading up on playmakers, with no real intention of running a traditional offense imo.
Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, Myles Boykin, Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown ...Mark Ingram as the vet for a year.
I’m buying the young Ravens offense wherever I can. Hill can flourish in that offense.
