RB Kareem Hunt, KC (4 Viewers)

[iamkoza]

ha, i had no idea returning to Cleveland next year was on the table... let alone the likely scenario.

 

[MAC_32]

ha, i had no idea returning to Cleveland next year was on the table... let alone the likely scenario.

If he stays out of trouble, of course the Browns will give him a 2nd round or original pick (3rd) tender. What team is going to sacrifice that draft capital AND give him a big enough contract that the Browns won't match? Not saying it won't happen. I've seen NFL franchise's do much...much dumber. Just doesn't seem all that likely, especially given the quality of the incoming RB class.

 

[matttyl]

If he stays out of trouble, of course the Browns will give him a 2nd round or original pick (3rd) tender. What team is going to sacrifice that draft capital AND give him a big enough contract that the Browns won't match? Not saying it won't happen. I've seen NFL franchise's do much...much dumber. Just doesn't seem all that likely, especially given the quality of the incoming RB class.

What contract will he have if he stays with the browns?  Is it some minimum amount?

 

[MAC_32]

What contract will he have if he stays with the browns?  Is it some minimum amount?

That's where the type of tender matters - the higher the tender the bigger the contract they're tied to in the cheapest scenario. I don't know if tender costs have been disclosed, but iirc it's something like $4+ mil for a #1, just under $3 mil for a #2, and $1.X mil for original round.

 

[matttyl]

That's where the type of tender matters - the higher the tender the bigger the contract they're tied to in the cheapest scenario. I don't know if tender costs have been disclosed, but iirc it's something like $4+ mil for a #1, just under $3 mil for a #2, and $1.X mil for original round.

What's the timetable for another team to offer him something?  It's before the draft, right? 

I don't think that money amount will scare anyone away, teams are giving much more than that to backups - most of which don't have his ability.  But parting with a second rounder could hurt. 

 

[MAC_32]

What's the timetable for another team to offer him something?  It's before the draft, right? 

I don't think that money amount will scare anyone away, teams are giving much more than that to backups - most of which don't have his ability.  But parting with a second rounder could hurt. 

I don't remember when the window closes, but yes it ends before the draft. Also, the numbers I cited are only if no team makes an offer to the tagged played - then the contract defaults back to the CBA negotiated price. The other 31 teams can sign the player to any size contract they want. Once agreed then the Browns have the opportunity to match or decline (and re-coup the corresponding pick).

 

[FreeBaGeL]

That's where the type of tender matters - the higher the tender the bigger the contract they're tied to in the cheapest scenario. I don't know if tender costs have been disclosed, but iirc it's something like $4+ mil for a #1, just under $3 mil for a #2, and $1.X mil for original round.

The projected tenders for next year are..

1st round -$4.7mil
2nd round - $3.3mil
Original round - $2.1mil

 

[FreeBaGeL]

If he stays out of trouble, of course the Browns will give him a 2nd round or original pick (3rd) tender. What team is going to sacrifice that draft capital AND give him a big enough contract that the Browns won't match? Not saying it won't happen. I've seen NFL franchise's do much...much dumber. Just doesn't seem all that likely, especially given the quality of the incoming RB class.

If it's a 2nd round tender I agree it's very unlikely anyone pulls him away.

If it's original round I think it's more of a toss-up.  I think it's notable that 3 of the top 6 teams in projected cap space for 2020 (Fins, Bucs, Texans) have a major need at RB.  Maybe the Bucs a little less-so now that RoJo is coming on a bit.

That makes the "contract that the Browns wouldn't match" bit more palatable.

I think the Texans being a team that is planning on seriously contending and the Dolphins perhaps wanting a more reliable veteran alongside a new franchise QB could give each of them a bit of a boost in desire for Hunt over a rookie they could take in the 3rd.

As an aside how do the RFA picks work if a team doesn't have a pick in that round, or has multiple picks in that round?  If multiple do they get to choose which one they send over?  And if none, do they have to give up around earlier or can they give up their pick from that round in the following year?

 

[MAC_32]

If it's a 2nd round tender I agree it's very unlikely anyone pulls him away.

If it's original round I think it's more of a toss-up.  I think it's notable that 3 of the top 6 teams in projected cap space for 2020 (Fins, Bucs, Texans) have a major need at RB.  Maybe the Bucs a little less-so now that RoJo is coming on a bit.

That makes the "contract that the Browns wouldn't match" bit more palatable.

I think the Texans being a team that is planning on seriously contending and the Dolphins perhaps wanting a more reliable veteran alongside a new franchise QB could give each of them a bit of a boost in desire for Hunt over a rookie they could take in the 3rd.

As an aside how do the RFA picks work if a team doesn't have a pick in that round, or has multiple picks in that round?  If multiple do they get to choose which one they send over?  And if none, do they have to give up around earlier or can they give up their pick from that round in the following year?

The problem with the Texans is they're already down a #1 each of the next two years and a #2 in 2021. Plus they already gave their #3 to Cleveland for a Browns RB. 

If Tampa doesn't believe in RoJo as their lead back then I could see that angle, but they seem to be rallying behind him. Things could change one way or the other, so I see how they are on the maybe list right now though.

I can't see it with the Fins. The most reasonable tank timeline is to begin to ascend year two then start to compete year three. I could see them being a player in the free agent market should RB still be a need in the 2021 offseason, but 2020? I struggle seeing that.

If the Falcons weren't in cap hell I could see them, but they are. The Steelers are in much better positioning, but they're also up against it.

So really all that just leaves the Lions. For now. More holes will develop between now and Spring.

 

[matttyl]

So why wouldn't the Browns tender him with a 2nd, other than the $1.2m difference?  Wouldn't they want the highest pick back if another team did sign him?

 

[Faust]

Browns run game thrives as a 2-man operation with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt

The future of Browns’ backfield looks bright featuring both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt together

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So why wouldn't the Browns tender him with a 2nd, other than the $1.2m difference?  Wouldn't they want the highest pick back if another team did sign him?

The money is the only reason.

 

[Faust]

Kareem Hunt gives the Browns' offense a new dimension

 

[Concept Coop]

If he stays out of trouble, of course the Browns will give him a 2nd round or original pick (3rd) tender. What team is going to sacrifice that draft capital AND give him a big enough contract that the Browns won't match? Not saying it won't happen. I've seen NFL franchise's do much...much dumber. Just doesn't seem all that likely, especially given the quality of the incoming RB class.

Do you think the Browns would match something like 21M/3 with 10 - 12 guaranteed? I could see a team offering that and a late 2nd for Hunt. I get that the RB class is strong, but Hunt is a proven 3 down back in his prime. After the top 3 or 4 backs, who will likely be drafted by the mid 2nd, I think Hunt is worth the premium over guys like Akers and Moss. 

Maybe I'm overvaluing Hunt, but I see him as a pro-bowl caliber, 3 down back. If he keeps doing what he did on Sunday, I think he’ll be in pretty high demand.

Edit: And would Hunt sign that or take the tender in hopes of getting a 40M+ contract as a UFA? (This will be a fun situation to watch play out. I could see it go a number of ways and don’t currently feel confident in any of them.)

 

[MAC_32]

Do you think the Browns would match something like 21M/3 with 10 - 12 guaranteed? I could see a team offering that and a late 2nd for Hunt. I get that the RB class is strong, but Hunt is a proven 3 down back in his prime. After the top 3 or 4 backs, who will likely be drafted by the mid 2nd, I think Hunt is worth the premium over guys like Akers and Moss. 

Maybe I'm overvaluing Hunt, but I see him as a pro-bowl caliber, 3 down back. If he keeps doing what he did on Sunday, I think he’ll be in pretty high demand.

Edit: And would Hunt sign that or take the tender in hopes of getting a 40M+ contract as a UFA? (This will be a fun situation to watch play out. I could see it go a number of ways and don’t currently feel confident in any of them.)

I'm not going to pretend to know what's going on in between Dorsey's ears, but if that were the offer I'd hope he opts for the pick. I'm glad this came up because now that I've thought about this more through dialogue with several of you the last two days it's making me realize how silly it would be for the Browns to not tender him with the #2. But back to why I'd let Hunt go - this team has paydays to the core players coming and other priorities this offseason. If it were just the contract it'd be one thing, but the opportunity to recoup that quality of a pick swings it for me. I think the best route to sustaining chances of competing for a title is through cost controlled young players, retaining your core, then approaching most free agent decisions like what was done with Hunt entering last offseason - cheap gambles on volatile stocks with high ceilings. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Do you think the Browns would match something like 21M/3 with 10 - 12 guaranteed? I could see a team offering that and a late 2nd for Hunt. I get that the RB class is strong, but Hunt is a proven 3 down back in his prime. After the top 3 or 4 backs, who will likely be drafted by the mid 2nd, I think Hunt is worth the premium over guys like Akers and Moss. 

Maybe I'm overvaluing Hunt, but I see him as a pro-bowl caliber, 3 down back. If he keeps doing what he did on Sunday, I think he’ll be in pretty high demand.

Edit: And would Hunt sign that or take the tender in hopes of getting a 40M+ contract as a UFA? (This will be a fun situation to watch play out. I could see it go a number of ways and don’t currently feel confident in any of them.)

I don't think there's any way the Browns would match 3yr $21mil but I don't find it likely he would get that kind of offer either.

I know you mentioned the differences in RB quality but in the late 2nd we are talking about 4yrs $5mil type contracts which is a massive difference, and I think some of the top 3-4 guys could slip this year with not many teams having a huge need at RB.  Even without them though, Akers/Moss at $1.25mil/yr for 4 years vs. Hunt at $7mil/yr for 3 years is still probably a tough sell on offering Hunt that much.

 

[MAC_32]

I don't think there's any way the Browns would match 3yr $21mil but I don't find it likely he would get that kind of offer either.

I know you mentioned the differences in RB quality but in the late 2nd we are talking about 4yrs $5mil type contracts which is a massive difference, and I think some of the top 3-4 guys could slip this year with not many teams having a huge need at RB.  Even without them though, Akers/Moss at $1.25mil/yr for 4 years vs. Hunt at $7mil/yr for 3 years is still probably a tough sell on offering Hunt that much.

Yes, but it's not just Akers/Moss vs. Hunt. It's Akers/Moss + whatever else that money's spent on (i.e. 30-40% give or take of Schobert) vs. Hunt.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think there's any way the Browns would match 3yr $21mil but I don't find it likely he would get that kind of offer either.

I know you mentioned the differences in RB quality but in the late 2nd we are talking about 4yrs $5mil type contracts which is a massive difference, and I think some of the top 3-4 guys could slip this year with not many teams having a huge need at RB.  Even without them though, Akers/Moss at $1.25mil/yr for 4 years vs. Hunt at $7mil/yr for 3 years is still probably a tough sell on offering Hunt that much.

I think I disagree. Melvin Gordan turned down 50M/5 and I think Hunt is on that level. Hunt won't get that due to his RFA status and baggage, but I think that's the going rate for someone like him. The 2nd round pick is the cost of buying that way down.

I can't think of a similar situation to draw on, so I'm not overly confident, but I'll be relatively surprised if he doesn't get something close to that. And the more I think about it, the more I think the Browns match. 

 

[Statorama]

I think there's an overestimation on this board for his services.  Any of the teams listed could have signed him last off-season...without giving up a pick...and for far less than 21/3. 

He's a good player, but there's way safer backs out there to be had.

It's not like teams were shying away because he was battling back from an injury.  If a team thought he was a risk to "re-offend" or not worth the PR damage, those things haven't changed.  If Detroit, or Tampa, or Chicago, or other teams he could have really boosted didn't want him in 2018 I just don't see them doing a 180 now (especially given the overflowing amount of RB talent in this upcoming draft).

With that said he's a great compliment to Chubb and gives the Browns something they haven't had since Mack/Byner.

After next season, if he keeps his nose clean / says and does all the right "football" things / plays well / doesn't commit acts of violence against women, he'll get a nice payday.  But right now, he's Chernobyl.  

 

[Concept Coop]

I think there's an overestimation on this board for his services.  Any of the teams listed could have signed him last off-season...without giving up a pick...and for far less than 21/3.

By the time FA rolls around he'll be 16 months removed from the incident. The outrage will have come and gone, the Browns will have survived it with no material damage, and Hunt will have stayed out of trouble for more than a year. That's a very different proposition than signing him when the Browns did.

 

[rockaction]

By the time FA rolls around he'll be 16 months removed from the incident. The outrage will have come and gone, the Browns will have survived it with no material damage, and Hunt will have stayed out of trouble for more than a year. That's a very different proposition than signing him when the Browns did.

This is what I was thinking. He laid low (was suspended) for a time and now seems contrite. If he maintains his cool in life, he'll be forgiven. It's a lot easier to sign him now than when the tape was first aired.

 

[FGITLOTR]

This is what I was thinking. He laid low (was suspended) for a time and now seems contrite. If he maintains his cool in life, he'll be forgiven. It's a lot easier to sign him now than when the tape was first aired.

This! He’s going to get tendered somewhere because he’s a top 10 talent...

 

[Statorama]

By the time FA rolls around he'll be 16 months removed from the incident. The outrage will have come and gone

Tell it to Ray Rice. 

But at the end of the day the more talented you are the more teams forgive you.  (See Hill, Tyreek)

 

[Concept Coop]

Tell it to Ray Rice. 

But at the end of the day the more talented you are the more teams forgive you.  (See Hill, Tyreek)

Or Joe Mixon. (Both incidents much worse than Hunt’s, IMO)

I could certainly be overestimating his market value. I just think his RFA status will be a bigger deterrent than the video, assuming he stays out of trouble in the meantime. Some teams will want nothing to do with him because of his past, but at least a handful will be interested. 

 

[Tau837]

Melvin Gordan turned down 50M/5 and I think Hunt is on that level

You say this as if you expect Hunt and Gordon will be getting contracts in that ballpark. I don't see it. Last several big RB second contracts:

1. Aug 2017 - Freeman - 5 years, $41M - has not come close to his 2015-2016 level of play since signing and has missed 18 of a possible 41 games so far
   
2. Mar 2018 - McKinnon - 4 years, $30M - bad signing in the first place and hurt ever since
   
3. Jul 2018 - Gurley - 4 years, $57.5M - faded down the stretch in 2018 and stuck in committee in 2019 and possibly for the rest of his career
   
4. Sep 2018 - Johnson - 3 years, $39M - has not come close to his 2016 level of play since signing and has missed 17 of a possible 42 games since that one big season
   
5. Mar 2019 - Bell - 4 years, $52.5M - has not come close to the level of play he showed with PIT; his coach stated publicly that he didn't want the team to sign him before he ever played a game for the Jets
   

That is a terrible track record. It is as plain as can be that it is foolish for teams to sign veteran RBs to contracts like these. I don't think teams will continue to do it.

And that has nothing to do with Hunt's off field history, which only makes it worse for him.

 

[Concept Coop]

You say this as if you expect Hunt and Gordon will be getting contracts in that ballpark. I don't see it. Last several big RB second contracts:

1. Aug 2017 - Freeman - 5 years, $41M - has not come close to his 2015-2016 level of play since signing and has missed 18 of a possible 41 games so far
   
2. Mar 2018 - McKinnon - 4 years, $30M - bad signing in the first place and hurt ever since
   
3. Jul 2018 - Gurley - 4 years, $57.5M - faded down the stretch in 2018 and stuck in committee in 2019 and possibly for the rest of his career
   
4. Sep 2018 - Johnson - 3 years, $39M - has not come close to his 2016 level of play since signing and has missed 17 of a possible 42 games since that one big season
   
5. Mar 2019 - Bell - 4 years, $52.5M - has not come close to the level of play he showed with PIT; his coach stated publicly that he didn't want the team to sign him before he ever played a game for the Jets
   

That is a terrible track record. It is as plain as can be that it is foolish for teams to sign veteran RBs to contracts like these. I don't think teams will continue to do it.

And that has nothing to do with Hunt's off field history, which only makes it worse for him.

I think Gordon will, based on the fact that he already turned one down, if the reports are accurate. I offered up 21M/3yr for Hunt.

I agree that it’s a bad move to give RBs that kind of money - I think Zeke’s contract was a bad move, even. But I expect it to continue. Teams regularly make bad free agent signings at all positions. 

 

[Jed]

By the time FA rolls around he'll be 16 months removed from the incident. The outrage will have come and gone, the Browns will have survived it with no material damage, and Hunt will have stayed out of trouble for more than a year. That's a very different proposition than signing him when the Browns did.

Huge testament for Dorsey. Not a ton of outrage at the time because the suspension was already given, almost nobody cares now and he's a big asset.

 

[unckeyherb]

anyone starting him tonight?  I did last week and was pretty happy with the result.  Heard on the radio today that Steelers have not given up a receiving TD to a RB all season and are holding RB's to under 30 yards receiving per game.  He's not going to get meaningful carries (I don't think), so i'm wondering what we can reasonably expect.  Kinda feeling like rolling with Sony instead.   

ETA this strategy is not without issue.  Eagles DLine has been pretty stout against the run this year.

 

[rockaction]

anyone starting him tonight?  I did last week and was pretty happy with the result.  Heard on the radio today that Steelers have not given up a receiving TD to a RB all season and are holding RB's to under 30 yards receiving per game.  He's not going to get meaningful carries (I don't think), so i'm wondering what we can reasonably expect.  Kinda feeling like rolling with Sony instead.   

ETA this strategy is not without issue.  Eagles DLine has been pretty stout against the run this year.

I'm debating K. Hunt or J. White, so I'm in a similar dilemma.

 

[unckeyherb]

I'm debating K. Hunt or J. White, so I'm in a similar dilemma.

I don't have any hard data to back this up but I feel like we play off the line so much that RB screens always tend to kill us.  I could see White getting 10+ catches this Sunday

 

[Concept Coop]

anyone starting him tonight?  I did last week and was pretty happy with the result.  Heard on the radio today that Steelers have not given up a receiving TD to a RB all season and are holding RB's to under 30 yards receiving per game.  He's not going to get meaningful carries (I don't think), so i'm wondering what we can reasonably expect.  Kinda feeling like rolling with Sony instead.   

ETA this strategy is not without issue.  Eagles DLine has been pretty stout against the run this year.

I want to but am leaning Fitz at SF. Tough match up and TNF games always seem to hurt me.

 

[stlrams]

I want to but am leaning Fitz at SF. Tough match up and TNF games always seem to hurt me.

I own Fitz and no way that he would sniff my line-up vs SF.  He is strictly possession guy now.

 

[rockaction]

I own Fitz and no way that he would sniff my line-up vs SF.  He is strictly possession guy now.

He's had four catches over forty yards this year, at least. That was in the first five games. I'm wondering what's up with Fitz, too. He should be thriving. 

 

[stlrams]

He's had four catches over forty yards this year, at least. That was in the first five games. I'm wondering what's up with Fitz, too. He should be thriving. 

It appears Kirk is down the field guy now.. 

 

[FGITLOTR]

Callaway getting released means Hunt should get a similar number of targets. I think he has a nice game today (60-70 total yards and a score). 

 

[need2know]

Callaway getting released means Hunt should get a similar number of targets. I think he has a nice game today (60-70 total yards and a score). 

Yup starting him with a little confidence 

 

[shadyridr]

anyone starting him tonight?  I did last week and was pretty happy with the result.  Heard on the radio today that Steelers have not given up a receiving TD to a RB all season and are holding RB's to under 30 yards receiving per game.  He's not going to get meaningful carries (I don't think), so i'm wondering what we can reasonably expect.  Kinda feeling like rolling with Sony instead.   

ETA this strategy is not without issue.  Eagles DLine has been pretty stout against the run this year.

I thought about it but gonna rule with Deebo at flex over Hunt

 

[unckeyherb]

I decided to go with him over Sony and Hollywood.  Gives me a reason to watch tonight.  Hope he breaks a long one.

 

[Rove!]

Playing him over Ballage and Fuller and Pascal (and AJ Green)

 

[PennStater77]

I decided to go with him over Sony and Hollywood.  Gives me a reason to watch tonight.  Hope he breaks a long one.

Over Sony is pretty tough choice.. Hope it woks out for you.

 

[Tau837]

I think Gordon will, based on the fact that he already turned one down, if the reports are accurate. I offered up 21M/3yr for Hunt.

I agree that it’s a bad move to give RBs that kind of money - I think Zeke’s contract was a bad move, even. But I expect it to continue. Teams regularly make bad free agent signings at all positions. 

I don't recall there ever being a trend of bad signings like the current trend of signings of big second RB contracts. Given that, it seems possible that teams will adapt their behavior on RB contracts.  

 

[The Frankman]

Kareem Hunt caught 6-of-8 targets for 46 yards in the Browns' Week 11 win over the Steelers, adding six rushes for 12 additional yards.

Being used like James White behind workhorse Nick Chubb, Hunt is now up to 17 targets in two games, adding 10 carries on the ground. Chubb is running too well to cede early-down work, but Hunt has already established himself as the Browns' No. 3 weapon in the passing game, giving him immediate PPR FLEX value. Hunt could flirt with RB2 status vs. the pathetic Dolphins in Week 12.

 

[Encumbrance]

Hunt looks fresh out there. He's an excellent route runner and was open more times than not, it's just the offensive line would cave and Baker would roll. 

 

[Kevrunner]

Hunt looks fresh out there. He's an excellent route runner and was open more times than not, it's just the offensive line would cave and Baker would roll. 

I would have thought Hunt would have some nicer runs since his legs are like brand new tires and everybody else has half a season of wear and tear on theirs.

 

[Encumbrance]

I would have thought Hunt would have some nicer runs since his legs are like brand new tires and everybody else has half a season of wear and tear on theirs.

his first two runs went for five apiece. Then he had one rush on 3rd and 3 and a few at the end of the game when the defense was keying on the run game. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I would have thought Hunt would have some nicer runs since his legs are like brand new tires and everybody else has half a season of wear and tear on theirs.

Guy had 6 attempts. They weren't really using him as a back, but lining him up all over the field. He had 8 targets, and think he looked quick and effective out there.

Chubb is one of the best backs in the league. They would be foolish not to feed him the rock. But they would also be foolish to not utilize Hunt. I think he'll continue to be used as a receiver in space, and I think you'll see those nice runs happen -- on the ground or YAC like last night. 

 

[The Frankman]

Kareem Hunt rushed eight times for 37 yards and a touchdown and caught 2-of-3 targets for nine yards in Week 12 against Miami.

Hunt's role didn't change much this week, but he capitalized on a red-zone carry for his first touchdown with the Browns. Cleveland used some two back formations with both Hunt and Nick Chubb in the game. Hunt has played well the last two weeks, so the Browns should continue to get him involved. He gets a matchup with the Steelers in Week 13.

 

[The Frankman]

Kareem Hunt rushed seven times for 46 yards, hauling in all five of his targets for 19 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland's disappointing Week 13 loss to the Steelers.

Nick Chubb out-carried Hunt 16 to 7 but it was the latter who shredded multiple tackles in the second quarter to breakaway for a 15-yard touchdown catch and put the Browns up 10-0 early. Chubb's now out-carried Hunt 84 to 25 since the duo first united in Week 10 but it hasn't effected either since Hunt's golden ticket continues to be his 6.2 targets per game; Chubb's receiving-game usage was previously nonexistent, too, losing reps to both Dontrell Hilliard and AAF castoff D'Ernest Johnson. Hunt will remain a matchup-proof RB3/FLEX the rest of the season if only for his involvement as a receiver.

 

[Faust]

Kareem Hunt rushed nine times for 28 yards and one touchdown in the Browns' Week 14 win over the Bengals.

He added two catches for 40 yards on three targets. Hunt's three-yard rushing score came two plays after Nick Chubb did all the work with a 57-yard run down to the three-yard line. Hunt has double-digit touches in all five games he's played since his suspension. Hunt will be an RB2/3 play next week against the Cardinals.

Dec 8, 2019, 6:08 PM ET

 

[The Frankman]

Kareem Hunt rushed three times for zero yards in the Browns' Week 16 loss to the Ravens, adding four receptions for 33 additional yards.

Hunt continues to largely work alongside Nick Chubb as a co-starting RB. His receiving work has been consistent, as only Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham have more targets in this offense since Hunt returned from suspension. The talented third-year RB could find himself a new home in 2020, but he’s earned weekly RB2 treatment in full-PPR formats in Cleveland thanks to their willingness to utilize plenty of two-RB formations.