Boston
Footballguy
I would rather see that than the Ravens using a #1 or #2 in the draft...that would scare me more...if Dixon is legit than he should be able to get more than his fair share with Woodhead and West in the picture...
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RB Kenneth Dixon, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Kyle Juszczyk is gone though too. He was 3rd down back a lot - and averaged 3 targets a game. Plenty of room for Woodhead to have a role and Dixson to put up RB1 numbers.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
A lot of his floor and value in general is tied to his pass catching ability. Maybe woodhead doesn't bounce back or the use has gotten to him, but he's been the premier 3rd down back since he left Miami. I'm worried the 4-5 receptions a game Dixon may have gotten even if the drafted a fournette or kamara disappear. The Detroit/Oakland backfield of despair.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
You dont sign woodhead and not use him. Limits dixon in ppr and they could easily add depth in the draft too
One More Rep
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ha, I forgot he was on the jets. I always remember the trade to the pats for like a 6th and thought how odd it was to trade a guy who looked pretty decent inside your division to the team your perrienially chasing.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
As a Dixon owner in 2 dynasty leagues. My best I can hope for is DW used in the passing game enough to keep Dixon fresh. And Dixon has RB1/RB2 #s most weeks getting 70% of the touches. And the Woodhead signing was more of a product of preparing if Dixon went down (and they didn't draft an RB in the first 4 rnds). They would be more than fine with DW and West handling the work load. But who knows. :(
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You were thinking of Wes Welker with Miami, I think.
It's actually worse. Woodhead was signed by the Jets as an UDFA and tore it up during the preseason. They released his during the final cuts and kept Joe McKnight (RIP) who looked terrible, but Rex/Tannenbaum wanted to save face sine they used a fourth round pick on McKnight. He was immediately picked up for free by Belichick and turned into a valuable weapon. :sigh:
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ah yeah the other white guy:/ Well at least they didn't hand him over willingly....
this is one reason I don't automatically discount someone based on stature.
Maybe I'm crazy, but Baltimore letting Juszczyk and his 49 targets go and then signing 32 year old Woodhead is music to my ears. Woodhead has always been crap between the tackles and he's not a good blocker at all. I'll be surprised if Woodhead gets more than the 49 targets vacated by Juszczyk. This signing smells like depth to me. I'd much rather them sign depth like Woodhead than draft someone early. I think the contract details will be telling.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ah yeah the other white guy:/ Well at least they didn't hand him over willingly....
this is one reason I don't automatically discount someone based on stature.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't think this really limits him in ppr. The last 8 weeks of the season, Dixon, West and Jusczyk combined for 67 receptions. Dixon had 25 of them, West 23 and Jusczyk 19. If Dixon takes the lead role and woodhead the receiving/ third down role, the receptions would come from Jusczyk (gone) and west (backup).
You're right that they could draft another guy, but the odds just went down of them drafting a guy with the expectation of having a role this year. Dallas signed Morris before drafting Elliott, so anything is possible, but it seems unlikely they will add a guy and tender another and still plan on drafting another early.
The bigger question is how big a role west will have. They just gave him an original round tender for 1.8 million, which is backup money. If they planned for him to start they could have protected him a lot more than that, which seems to indicate the role they see for him. Woodhead has only broken 100 carries once (106 three years ago) and is 32, coming off an ACL injury. I don't see
The other question is if they try to use woodhead on the goal line like the chargers used to. That's a legitimate threat to Dixon's touchdown potential.
From a dynasty standpoint, this is also good news in that west and woodhead are both short term options. That doesn't mean that Dixon will be the lead back there long term, but it means he's the one with the best opportunity to earn that role.
Overall I feel more confident now that Dixon will be the lead back than I did last week, and I still see rb1 upside for 2017 and beyond.
Then you must be predicting an injury. Woodhead has had a minimum of 55 targets (and a high of 107!) in in each of his healthy seasons over the past 5 years.
I would pencil him in for no less than 65 if he plays all season, with a ceiling of about 90.
spider321
Footballguy
I don't understand why people look at career averages when guys change situations. Sproles averaged 5.3 receptions per game the previous 3 seasons when Philly signed him, yet he didn't magically keep that pace up (3.2/gm). I don't really care what Woodhead did in SD under McCoy and Whisenhunt. He's 32 years old now and playing in a totally different offense with totally different competition. Plus, 49 targets isn't very different than the 55 he got in New England when he was 27 that you referenced.
spider321
Footballguy
Because he has a track record of being a premier pass-catching back, and the Ravens didn't sign him to be anything else. Go back several seasons, and you'll see that the Ravens have been one of the higher sources of RB targets in the league.
2016 - 100 RB targets
2015 - 103 RB targets
2013 - 97 RB targets (72 to Ray ####### Rice!)
spider321
Footballguy
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I thought by now it was common knowledge that WRs and RBs have different productivity vs. age patterns??
Does he? Or does his track record just say that he had two years of high volume in San Diego with a totally different offense? And I agree, the Ravens were 2nd in the league when it came to targeting their RBs last year (although I'm not sure if that was due to Trestman or Mornhinweg) so there might be plenty of targets to go around, but I just don't think Woodhead actually brings anything special to the table.
Tau837
Footballguy
Over the past 4 seasons, Woodhead averaged 4.5 receptions per game on 5.6 targets per game. IMO there should be zero question that his signing will lower Dixon's ceiling for receptions, and probably not by a little. Otherwise, I see no reason why the Ravens would have signed Woodhead.
Tau837
Footballguy
Woodhead averaged 4.5 receptions, 63 YFS, and ~0.5 TDs per game over the past 4 seasons. He averaged 3.9 ypc over that span and is understood to be poor at pass protection. So it doesn't seem like he was signed to carry the ball a lot (but presumably enough to keep the defense honest when he is in) or to pass protect. What does that leave? Catching passes.
As for his age/health, all reports are that his rehab is ahead of schedule. I know that is common at this stage, but better than reports to the contrary. Most importantly, for the Ravens to sign him, they must have checked out his knee and felt good about it. Aside from that, IMO it isn't appropriate to think of Woodhead as fitting the pattern of most RBs. He has played 93 career games in the league, already a long career for a RB, but he has only averaged 5.4 carries per game. So he hasn't taken the level of punishment most RBs take.
Most importantly, I think a lot of people fail to appreciate what a unique talent Woodhead is. He is like the RB equivalent of Welker and Edelman. Not just because they are all white, but because of his ability to get open on short routes and convert first downs. He is a very difficult matchup for a LB.
If Woodhead stays healthy, I would expect his floor to be 40 receptions, 40 carries, 500 YFS, and 4 TDs. Obviously if that is his floor, that implies he could outperform that. Sure, the Ravens could have potentially drafted a RB early who would have done more. But I don't see how anyone thinks that will not impact Dixon.
ETA: I am a Dixon owner and do not own Woodhead in any dynasty league. So I would like to be wrong.
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
With RBs I'd say it is more about mileage than age. Woodhead has approximately as many touches in his career as a RB who has played four seasons. Not crazy to think he has quite a bit left in tank.
I used to think that, too, but I believe it was either Adam Harstad or Chase Stuart that published an article (backed up by statistics) that showed otherwise.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
I've not seen the article, so I could be off base here. But I'm not suggesting 32 year olds with less mileage would hold up well as a workhorse. Just saying I think he is still more than capable of being the pass catching specialist he has been.
Agree.
Not good for Dixon, not really good for Woodhead either, both move down slightly on my board.
It's called depth and everyone does it
I think Dixon can be a 3 down back. Not sure if the Ravens will let him, but if that is the plan then that would leave West and Woodhead backing him up, which would probably mean West on early downs and Woodhead as a 3rd down/2 minute offense specialist. I haven't seen the contract yet, but I'll bet the money matches this usage. I'll be shocked if they paid Woodhead serious RBBC money. I really think he's nothing more than depth/contingency plan.
I've watched Woodhead a lot. He's got great hands, but he's no Edelman or Welker. Those guys were like RBs playing WR, whereas Woodhead is more like a WR playing RB. He's got no moves. He's got great speed and that seems to be what he relies on. He catches the ball and runs straight. He's not elusive at all and he breaks no tackles. I always felt like Welker and Edelman were great after the catch. I feel like Woodhead's YPR is high for a RB due to the fact his routes are designed (rather than dump offs) and his aDoT is likely higher than most RBs rather than due to elusiveness.
Woodhead averaged 4.5 receptions, 63 YFS, and ~0.5 TDs per game over the past 4 seasons. He averaged 3.9 ypc over that span and is understood to be poor at pass protection. So it doesn't seem like he was signed to carry the ball a lot (but presumably enough to keep the defense honest when he is in) or to pass protect. What does that leave? Catching passes.
As for his age/health, all reports are that his rehab is ahead of schedule. I know that is common at this stage, but better than reports to the contrary. Most importantly, for the Ravens to sign him, they must have checked out his knee and felt good about it. Aside from that, IMO it isn't appropriate to think of Woodhead as fitting the pattern of most RBs. He has played 93 career games in the league, already a long career for a RB, but he has only averaged 5.4 carries per game. So he hasn't taken the level of punishment most RBs take.
Most importantly, I think a lot of people fail to appreciate what a unique talent Woodhead is. He is like the RB equivalent of Welker and Edelman. Not just because they are all white, but because of his ability to get open on short routes and convert first downs. He is a very difficult matchup for a LB.
If Woodhead stays healthy, I would expect his floor to be 40 receptions, 40 carries, 500 YFS, and 4 TDs. Obviously if that is his floor, that implies he could outperform that. Sure, the Ravens could have potentially drafted a RB early who would have done more. But I don't see how anyone thinks that will not impact Dixon.
ETA: I am a Dixon owner and do not own Woodhead in any dynasty league. So I would like to be wrong.
As for you guys taking his average receptions from past years, keep in mind that he was playing over 50% of the snaps. At least in 2015 he was (and he was way over 50% in 2016 before injury). Sorry, too lazy to go all the way back to 2013 (his only other healthy season in SD). But he's likely to be a bit player now rather than the lead RB in terms of snaps. I can't imagine his role being significantly larger than Juszczyk's role without some sort of injury to Dixon or West.
Skoo
Footballguy
You don't sign Woodhead to be your featured back in case the #1 goes down, you sign him to be the 3rd down specialist.
FWIW, I'm saying I'd rather they bring in an old RB than draft a rookie. We all knew they were going to bring someone in. I'd much rather it be Woodhead than an early draft pick. So yes, Dixon's stock is lower than if they totally ignored the position in free agency and the draft - nobody's arguing against that - but I don't think anyone expected them to do that. So signing Woodhead was really about as benign of a move as they could have done. But I'm not ruling out that they could still draft someone and that would hurt. To me Woodhead at this stage of his career is barely an upgrade over Javorius Allen.
Also, unrelated to your post... I should've mentioned this earlier: an ACL tear isn't nearly what it was 15 years ago, but let's keep in mind what just transpired with Jamaal Charles. And Charles was 29 last year. Woodhead is 32. I'm not going to ding a guy coming off an ACL tear (I'm all about Keenan Allen this year), but at Woodhead's age I am not necessarily going to pencil him in as picking up right where he left off two years ago.
Well, you said releasing the FB and signing Woodhead was "music to your ears", and Fred said that he's "more confident" now than he was before, so it certainly seems like you think his stock isn't lower (quite the opposite).
Also, no one bumped the thread in January when Harbaugh said they needed to bring in another RB, yet you guys are all over him saying that he's a Dixon fan and loves his personality- IMO you are seeing/hearing what you want to see/hear. To me, it's pretty clear his value is lower today than it was when the season ended. It's not in the tank or anything, and it could obviously go back up depending on what transpires, but it hasn't been a good off season for him so far.
Nah, I didn't get excited at all about the recent Harbaugh quote. And I've mentioned in multiple threads that I took Harbaugh's quote about drafting a running back to mean someone like Dri Archer. I really don't expect them to draft a bellcow.
But yes, I am happy they signed Woodhead rather than someone better and I'm hoping this means they won't draft someone. That's what I meant when I said this signing was music to my ears.
Again, because you're hearing what you want to hear. We don't know what he meant for sure, but usually coaches don't go out of their way to say that they really need to add a guy like Dri Archer, who has 17 touches in his career.
Literally yesterday you said you expect Dixon to finish in the top 5 for receptions for a RB, and you think signing the guy who led the league the last two seasons he was healthy is music to your ears? Doesn't make sense.
bostonfred
Footballguy
In January Harbaugh said he wanted to add a running back and had discussed what kind of back he wanted with Ozzie. I referenced that yesterday, before the woodhead signing, and I believed based on his actual comments that he wanted a third down/ CoP back. But if you look at the articles, literally every one uses the word game breaker and speculates on the Ravens as a landing spot for Fournette. That crushed his trade value - literally everyone you talked to said that they'd heard the Ravens were going to draft a back and that Harbaugh was unhappy with Dixon.
Show me a quote from Harbaugh sayong he was unhappy with Dixon.
What happened? The Ravens brought in a third down/ CoP back. They did it in free agency instead of the draft, but they did exactly what I thought they would do.
I was (and remain) concerned that they'll draft someone to compete for the lead role, but they've got Dixon, they tendered West for backup money, and they added a third down back. The chances are much better today that they're done adding guys than they were this time yesterday.
So in that sense, my confidence that Dixon will be the lead back has gone up. If they'd locked west up at 4 million a year instead of giving him a 1.8 million, original draft pick tender, I'd be more concerned they saw him as a key part of their backfield.
The way I see it, the odds of Dixon leading the backfield in carries have gone up because they didn't bring in competition for the lead role. They brought in a guy who might have 100 carries in a change of pace role and they retained a guy who Dixon appeared to have beaten for the starting job by the end of the season. It's certainly still possible that Dixon isn't that good, or that west is better than I thought, but by the end of the season he was averaging close to 5 yards per carry, was on pace for 50 catches, and scored 3 tds in his final 4 games. It looks like he'll have the opportunity to lead the backfield this year.
That doesn't mean he will be a stud this year, but it's a lot better than the talk a month ago when people were shoveling dirt on him.
Lol- where's all this "talk"? Literally not one post in this thread about it, until you bumped it with all of your links "praising" him.
I don't need to show you a quote from Harbaugh saying he was unhappy with Dixon specifically, but the one we're talking about says he is unhappy with the running game. Do you think he wasn't including in that?
Read the quote. It didn't sound like a bell cow guy. It sounded like the guy Dri Archer was hyped to be. I'm not heavily invested in Dixon, but I am all about him in redraft this season. If Baltimore drafts a guy in the 1st round I'll absolutely change my redraft strategy, but all I'm saying is what I'm expecting (rather what I want to hear as you claim). And what I'm expecting is that they don't draft a serious contender for touches, especially after the Woodhead signing. There's plenty of time before drafts start for things to shake out, so these discussions are kind of pointless right now since it's all speculation, but IF no one significant is brought in then yes, I still think Dixon will be top 5 in receptions next year because...humpback said:
a 32 yo Woodhead coming off ACL surgery is not the same as the Woodhead who played over 50% of the snaps in a different offense. You guys can assume he's being brought in for the same or similar role as he played in SD two years ago, but I'm going to assume he's just depth. Time will tell who is right. And even if they are bringing him in with that line of thought now, I'm confident Dixon can beat him out in training camp.
"We need another back," Harbaugh said. "What type of back that is? I think we’re talking about it. We have a pretty good idea of the type of back we want to add."
"Marty believes in running the football, and I believe in running the football," Harbaugh said. "We have not run the football well enough or enough, really, for the last two years. That has to change."
You're interpreting that to be a Dri Archer-type because that's what you hope it is, not because of anything he said.
The article on ESPN did say that they needed a game breaker, but that was just their opinion.
Ah, well that should give you an idea of how much credence I give these offseason fluff pieces. I'm not that interested in the good ones or the bad ones. I actually didn't even read the one that you said Dixon owners were excited about. I saw someone mention that he was glowing about every player mentioned, so I just skipped it entirely.
I should also point out that I'm mainly a redraft guy, so I don't care that much what they do. I did draft Dixon in WSL1 because I believe they won't bring in significant competition, but my money leagues don't draft until later so I can wait and see. I'm just saying my prediction as of right now is they spend that draft capital on other positions. If I'm wrong, I'll change my plan. It's simply the most likely outcome, not necessarily what I hope. My redraft strategy this early in the game is not based on hope.
Tau837
Footballguy
I doubt it. The Chargers were supposedly trying to keep him and likely would have given him a raise to stay, in which case he would have stayed in the same offense in which he has excelled. I'd be very surprised if he signed for less than $3M per year. I don't see that as a typical valuation for someone who is depth only and not part of a RBBC.It's called depth and everyone does it
I think Dixon can be a 3 down back. Not sure if the Ravens will let him, but if that is the plan then that would leave West and Woodhead backing him up, which would probably mean West on early downs and Woodhead as a 3rd down/2 minute offense specialist. I haven't seen the contract yet, but I'll bet the money matches this usage. I'll be shocked if they paid Woodhead serious RBBC money. I really think he's nothing more than depth/contingency plan.
Really. You "can't imagine" it? About a guy who in his last healthy season was RB3 (PPR) despite sharing the backfield with Gordon, a first round draft pick who the team traded away two picks to move up and draft? If you can't imagine him making an impact greater than just "depth only and not part of a RBBC" you must not have much of an imagination.
You keep citing that Woodhead played more than 50% of the snaps in SD to get those numbers in 2013 and 2015, as if that is required in order for him to impact Dixon. Scale those numbers down to 30% snaps and what do you have? For 2015, you have 49 receptions, 650 YFS, and 5 TDs.
I'll agree to disagree at this point.
Are we talking about real football or fantasy football? I don't think the Ravens signed him bc he was RB3 in PPR two years ago. And despite what the Chargers paid for Gordon in draft capital, I think we both recognize that he was not a good player as a rookie. I don't think they wanted to give Woodhead 597 offensive snaps, but he was the least bad option.
And hey, I have a very active imagination! It's just a saying. Don't be so literal. I can imagine an alternate reality where a 32 yo Woodhead has a comeback and beats out Dixon for a significant portion of the snaps. But realistically, that's not going to happen. And maybe there was a bidding war for his services between the Chargers and Ravens. If they did pay him more than $3M/year then they overpaid. It shouldn't be hard to find a pass catching back who can't block or run between the tackles. From a play calling aspect, you're really tipping your hand when you put Woodhead in the game.
And I'm not saying he needs 50% of the snaps to impact Dixon. I'm saying you guys act like his production is some sort of fact of life and we can just pencil him in for a ton of receptions because that's what he does. But he was essentially playing a starter's snaps in a totally different offense before. Those number don't matter anymore. He'll be going from RB1 snaps to RB3* snaps in Baltimore and he'll have to earn those snaps. He was the de facto receiving back in San Diego. For whatever reason they didn't trust Gordon in that role (a singular 3rd down reception as a rookie) and the other options were Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver. I think Dixon represents much stronger competition.
*I don't think that highly of West, but I like him better than Woodhead at this point.
eNdblu
Footballguy
Jason La Canfora @JasonLaCanfora now
NFL announces 4 game suspension for Ravens running back Kenneth Dixon. We're very high on the then rookie coming into last season
NFL announces 4 game suspension for Ravens running back Kenneth Dixon. We're very high on the then rookie coming into last season
Tau837
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Ouch
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Put a fork in this guy
