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RB Latavius Murray, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ShaHBucks
- Start date
Murray has done very well in their system. Vikings should let Cook get 100% healthy but even then the guy can't stay off the injury report.
Milkman
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
Murray should get the short yardage/goal line back role he had in the past, but not enough where it would matter.
Dark Matter
Footballguy
Why do you think you're smarter than NFL coaches? McCarthy has been on record stating several times after the 2013 season (where he gave Lacy 320 touches) that he'll never again do that again to a running back. You can't run them into the ground during the regular season and expect them to be golden for the playoffs. Unless, perhaps, you have some incredibly elite talent like Zeke or Bell that have amazing elusiveness and can withstand the beating better. The Packers don't have that elite talent so they have to hodgepodge it a little better.
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Dark Matter
Footballguy
What this article says to me is that Zimmer understands his player. MM is going to stick with his RBBC because he learned his lesson with Eddie Lacy and not deviate from his game plan. Is that kind of stubbornness going to win GB the SB? Hell, I'll be happy if GB makes the playoffs this year.
Sorry for the
skinsrule05
Footballguy
Well saidWhat this article says to me is that Zimmer understands his player. MM is going to stick with his RBBC because he learned his lesson with Eddie Lacy and not deviate from his game plan. Is that kind of stubbornness going to win GB the SB? Hell, I'll be happy if GB makes the playoffs this year.
Sorry for the
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Murray took a pay cut to the veteran minimum last season just because he likes Zimmer (a lot) and the team and wanted to be a part of it.
He is singing a bit different tune now. On the business side of things the Vikings likely would have cut him last year if he didn't agree to the pay cut.
Mike Boone and Roc Thomas did not really do very well though, and they brought in Ameer later on in the year, so the back up job is open, and given Cooks injuries the first two years, a bit more of a priority to have a good 2nd RB.
Murray failed on some short yardage plays in the 2018 season and Cook was being used for those at the end of the year. I think Cook is better than Murray at that. His legs are stronger and he just has better pad level.
As long as Murray is able to fall forward, he is so tall getting 1st downs are pretty easy. But when he has to punch it in there for a yard, his height and upright running style is a disadvantage and beside horrible blocking the reason he failed on short yardage a few times.
He is singing a bit different tune now. On the business side of things the Vikings likely would have cut him last year if he didn't agree to the pay cut.
Mike Boone and Roc Thomas did not really do very well though, and they brought in Ameer later on in the year, so the back up job is open, and given Cooks injuries the first two years, a bit more of a priority to have a good 2nd RB.
Murray failed on some short yardage plays in the 2018 season and Cook was being used for those at the end of the year. I think Cook is better than Murray at that. His legs are stronger and he just has better pad level.
As long as Murray is able to fall forward, he is so tall getting 1st downs are pretty easy. But when he has to punch it in there for a yard, his height and upright running style is a disadvantage and beside horrible blocking the reason he failed on short yardage a few times.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Anyone think Murray could be a starter in a 12 team ppr? If he gets the volume, he could have a nice year, but will he get enough volume?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I tend to think he will get decent enough volume. I don't think they want to ruin kamara
Birdie048
Footballguy
There were 2 interesting articles on NOS signing LaMurray (can only find 1 = Roto)
Key Points: A Kamara does not exceed 200 carries/season (194 in 2018 even with Ingram missing 4 games).
Ingram accounted for >35% of the carries and NOS runs 400+
Murray should some GL carries (Tied for 4th with 21 TD's inside 10)
Murray should be RB2 relevant in most formats, but not much PPR value difference
Key Points: A Kamara does not exceed 200 carries/season (194 in 2018 even with Ingram missing 4 games).
Ingram accounted for >35% of the carries and NOS runs 400+
Murray should some GL carries (Tied for 4th with 21 TD's inside 10)
Murray should be RB2 relevant in most formats, but not much PPR value difference
I am curious why Latavius is ranked so low this year. He is the unquestioned #2 behind Kamara, and has proven he can handle a full load if Kamara goes down. He is a decent pass catcher, a good GL back, and he protects the ball (last fumble was nearly 400 touches ago). He is a relatively young 28 (just over 1000 touches) who has no real injury history. The one knock I hear over and over is his upright running style, but it hasn't seemed to hurt him. His 4.1 YPC is a bit misleading, when you factor in his short yardage work. It's hard to gain over 4 yards when you're punching it in from the 1.
If Latavius is 15 months younger than Ingram, has 500 less touches, and isn't suspended for the first 4 games of 2019, is it just me who thinks he may be undervalued?
If Latavius is 15 months younger than Ingram, has 500 less touches, and isn't suspended for the first 4 games of 2019, is it just me who thinks he may be undervalued?
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
He actually isn't that good at goal line or short yardage. Partly because he is so tall and has an upright running style. He can't get low enough to win leverage.TheWinz said:
The Vikings offensive line sucked last season, certainly more to blame for their short yardage failures than Murray, but they had Dalvin Cook take over that role later on in the season, because they thought he had a better chance of getting that done than Murray. No this isn't one of Cooks strengths.
Murray had 18 rushing attempts for 17 yards on plays where the Vikings needed 3 or less yards for a 1st down (or to score). He generated 2 TD and one 1st down in these attempts.
Cook had 16 rushing attempts for 50 yards on plays where the Vikings needed 3 or less yards for a 1st down (or to score). He generated 3 first downs in these attempts.
I have no idea what Murrays ADP is right now. He very well could be a great value, just pointing out that even though Murray is a pretty big RB, he isn't very effective in short yardage situations.
And yet teams keep running him out there.
Not saying you’re wrong, and love the injection of actual numbers into the conversation. But it looks like Cook and Murray were pretty much equally ineffective in short yardage. (3/18 vs 3/16, and the yardage difference attributable to Murray’s short yardage being disproportionately goallline vs midfield).
For comparison, I would love to know the leagu average conversion rate for runs with under 3 yards to go. Would not be surprised if it’s barely above these fractions.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I would be interested to know what the average conversion rate is as well.
I am guessing it is higher than Murrays 18% last year.
Murrays career success rate on runs in this situation may be higher than 18% as well.
As far as them being equally bad, yes most of this falls on the offensive line rather than the RB.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
a ham sandwich,in this offense, will have value. Murray is going to get some gaudy numbers filling the M. Ingram role with RB1 upside if Kamara gets hurt.
Murray is a sleeper of sorts because people don't think he's particularly good in any category, but he hasn't played with MT and Drew yet.He's played with, gullp, Cousins and group of Vikings coaches that are completely outclassed week in and week out. they're a terrible lot, worse than NYG or Adam Gase's Dolphins.
this move to N.O. is going to be a HUGE upswing for Murray.
Murray is a sleeper of sorts because people don't think he's particularly good in any category, but he hasn't played with MT and Drew yet.He's played with, gullp, Cousins and group of Vikings coaches that are completely outclassed week in and week out. they're a terrible lot, worse than NYG or Adam Gase's Dolphins.
this move to N.O. is going to be a HUGE upswing for Murray.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
IMO L-Train is a talented back whose physical style of running should be a great set off to Kamara's shifty style.
Bia - Here is a TD statistic for you. In the past 3 years, in the 20 games in which Murray was given the ball 15 times or more, he has scored a TD in 15 of those games. 3 out of 4. At least half a dozen multiple TD games also.
To me those statistics point to upside and that Latavius Murray IS able to get in the endzone if you give him the ball.
EDIT TO ADD: He also caught the ball pretty well when he was with Oakland. He is no Kamara, but he should get an uptick in receptions also.
Bia - Here is a TD statistic for you. In the past 3 years, in the 20 games in which Murray was given the ball 15 times or more, he has scored a TD in 15 of those games. 3 out of 4. At least half a dozen multiple TD games also.
To me those statistics point to upside and that Latavius Murray IS able to get in the endzone if you give him the ball.
EDIT TO ADD: He also caught the ball pretty well when he was with Oakland. He is no Kamara, but he should get an uptick in receptions also.
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You were looking at the stats wrong - Murray had 10 first downs on those 18 Carries, not 1. And 2 of those carries were TD's. Also, a RB who is a short yardage specialist is surely going to have a lower YPC in these situations versus an every-down RB, because of field position. The YPC is misleading. And in the 2 previous years, Murray had 52 first downs on 84 carries, along with 14 TD's. He actually is a good GL/short yardage back. He has 12 TD's from the 1-yard line in the last 3 seasons. I haven't checked, but I bet that is in the top 10.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
To be fair to Lat...
Rush attmpts, average yards per attempt, and first down conversion rate for attempts 3 yds or less for first down or TD:
2016 (OAK) 47 att 3.7872 yds/att 0.6596 conversion /// League average 3.09 yds/att 0.6182 conversion for all RB's with at least 10 attempts
2017 (MIN) 37 att 2.3243 yds/att 0.5676 conversion /// League average 3.13 yds/att 0.6046 conversion for all RB's with at least 10 attempts
2018 (MIN) 18 att 0.9444 yds/att 0.5556 conversion /// League average 3.23 yds/att 0.6203 conversion for all RB's with at least 10 attempts
Knowing how bad that o-line was at minnesota and the fact that Cook equally had 18 such attempts in 2018, he's probably more like the 2016 version than he is 2018. There's no denying his stats for 2018 stinks, but that looks anomalous.
(stats courtesy of Data Dominator)
Rush attmpts, average yards per attempt, and first down conversion rate for attempts 3 yds or less for first down or TD:
2016 (OAK) 47 att 3.7872 yds/att 0.6596 conversion /// League average 3.09 yds/att 0.6182 conversion for all RB's with at least 10 attempts
2017 (MIN) 37 att 2.3243 yds/att 0.5676 conversion /// League average 3.13 yds/att 0.6046 conversion for all RB's with at least 10 attempts
2018 (MIN) 18 att 0.9444 yds/att 0.5556 conversion /// League average 3.23 yds/att 0.6203 conversion for all RB's with at least 10 attempts
Knowing how bad that o-line was at minnesota and the fact that Cook equally had 18 such attempts in 2018, he's probably more like the 2016 version than he is 2018. There's no denying his stats for 2018 stinks, but that looks anomalous.
(stats courtesy of Data Dominator)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Currently RB32 by the FBG staffers, with a high of RB30 and a low of RB49, and a consensus of RB36 according to the FBG ADP sorter.
Over the past 3 seasons, the Saints bettered their record from 7-9 to 11-5 to 13-3. Not coincidentally, their run/pass ratio went from 63/37 to 55/45 to 52/48. Also not coincidentally, Brees aged from 37 to 38 to 39.
Over the past 3 seasons, the Saints defense bettered their yards given up from 27th to 17th to 14th. Their 2018 time of possession was the best in the last 5 years. The Saints are doing exactly what they need for Brees to continue his high level of play as he ages - they are becoming a much more balanced team. In the last 2 yrs, his average pass attempts have been 513. By comparison, his lowest total in the previous 7 years was 627. Not coincidentally, the Patriots have done the same thing with Brady over the past 3 seasons, and it's worked quite well for them too.
Now, on to the running game. The Saints have had a 1/2 punch for the last 3 years. In 2016, it was Ingram (205) and Hightower (133). Then it was Ingram (230) and Kamara (120). And last year it was Kamara (194) and Ingram (138 - missed 4 games). Kamara still projects to be a monster in the passing game, so his carries will not skyrocket. Off topic for a minute, I noticed a strange anomaly in his targets from last year - first 4 games without Ingram, he had 47 targets (to be expected). Then he went on a streak of 7 games where he totaled only 26 targets, then his last 4 games it shot back up to 32. I just thought it seemed strange. OK, back on topic. When Ingram returned week 5, he and Kamara had exactly 138 carries each for the rest of the season. The 2018 Saints had 471 rushes. The last time they topped that was in 2006 when they had the Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush combo.
With a 13-3 record last year, the most balanced pass/run team they've had in forever, a now 40 year old QB, and a decent defense, does anyone think they will revert to a pass-happy team? I think not. Murray should see plenty of touches behind Kamara, and has the capability of being an every down back if Kamara gets injured. What's not to like about his situation? Everyone drooled over Ingram when he was suspended for 4 games and was Kamara's backup last year.
Over the past 3 seasons, the Saints bettered their record from 7-9 to 11-5 to 13-3. Not coincidentally, their run/pass ratio went from 63/37 to 55/45 to 52/48. Also not coincidentally, Brees aged from 37 to 38 to 39.
Over the past 3 seasons, the Saints defense bettered their yards given up from 27th to 17th to 14th. Their 2018 time of possession was the best in the last 5 years. The Saints are doing exactly what they need for Brees to continue his high level of play as he ages - they are becoming a much more balanced team. In the last 2 yrs, his average pass attempts have been 513. By comparison, his lowest total in the previous 7 years was 627. Not coincidentally, the Patriots have done the same thing with Brady over the past 3 seasons, and it's worked quite well for them too.Now, on to the running game. The Saints have had a 1/2 punch for the last 3 years. In 2016, it was Ingram (205) and Hightower (133). Then it was Ingram (230) and Kamara (120). And last year it was Kamara (194) and Ingram (138 - missed 4 games). Kamara still projects to be a monster in the passing game, so his carries will not skyrocket. Off topic for a minute, I noticed a strange anomaly in his targets from last year - first 4 games without Ingram, he had 47 targets (to be expected). Then he went on a streak of 7 games where he totaled only 26 targets, then his last 4 games it shot back up to 32. I just thought it seemed strange. OK, back on topic. When Ingram returned week 5, he and Kamara had exactly 138 carries each for the rest of the season. The 2018 Saints had 471 rushes. The last time they topped that was in 2006 when they had the Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush combo.
With a 13-3 record last year, the most balanced pass/run team they've had in forever, a now 40 year old QB, and a decent defense, does anyone think they will revert to a pass-happy team? I think not. Murray should see plenty of touches behind Kamara, and has the capability of being an every down back if Kamara gets injured. What's not to like about his situation? Everyone drooled over Ingram when he was suspended for 4 games and was Kamara's backup last year.
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
I've always been a fan, but ionno if I like the fit in New Orleans for him. I mean, it could be great for his production, but typically they like smaller backs. The bigger ones like Ivory and Khiry Robinson were solid, but AP wasn't very good.
Scoop him up in the later rounds of redraft, but if you want to make a trade for him in dynasty, then don't give more than a 4th, that's for sure.
Scoop him up in the later rounds of redraft, but if you want to make a trade for him in dynasty, then don't give more than a 4th, that's for sure.
AP was 74 when he joined the Saints in 2017. Kamara can do it all. He simply needs a break from time to time. Enter Murray to help shoulder the load. As for the fit, I really don't get it. Just because the recent good RB's from NO have been on the smaller side, doesn't mean the Saints like smaller backs. They knew LM wasn't a midget when they signed him, and he certainly won't be dropping down in the depth chart. He has inherited Ingram's role, at least for 2019. I am a redraft guy, so this year is all I am looking at, and I foresee better value than where he is currently projected for redraft.HairyGOATee said:
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
nobody is trading Murray for a 4th, you have to offer a 2nd if you want considerationHairyGOATee said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Great post.Currently RB32 by the FBG staffers, with a high of RB30 and a low of RB49, and a consensus of RB36 according to the FBG ADP sorter.
Over the past 3 seasons, the Saints bettered their record from 7-9 to 11-5 to 13-3. Not coincidentally, their run/pass ratio went from 63/37 to 55/45 to 52/48. Also not coincidentally, Brees aged from 37 to 38 to 39.
Now, on to the running game. The Saints have had a 1/2 punch for the last 3 years. In 2016, it was Ingram (205) and Hightower (133). Then it was Ingram (230) and Kamara (120). And last year it was Kamara (194) and Ingram (138 - missed 4 games). Kamara still projects to be a monster in the passing game, so his carries will not skyrocket. Off topic for a minute, I noticed a strange anomaly in his targets from last year - first 4 games without Ingram, he had 47 targets (to be expected). Then he went on a streak of 7 games where he totaled only 26 targets, then his last 4 games it shot back up to 32. I just thought it seemed strange. OK, back on topic. When Ingram returned week 5, he and Kamara had exactly 138 carries each for the rest of the season. The 2018 Saints had 471 rushes. The last time they topped that was in 2006 when they had the Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush combo.
With a 13-3 record last year, the most balanced pass/run team they've had in forever, a now 40 year old QB, and a decent defense, does anyone think they will revert to a pass-happy team? I think not. Murray should see plenty of touches behind Kamara, and has the capability of being an every down back if Kamara gets injured. What's not to like about his situation? Everyone drooled over Ingram when he was suspended for 4 games and was Kamara's backup last year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Ingram is a fairly big back, he’s as big as Ivory I believe, and he definitely plays like one. He’s done well there.HairyGOATee said:
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
Ingram is 5'9 and began to play more like a scatback towards the end of his tenure with the Saints. He improved as a pass-catcher, became more agile, and showed off some speed too.Dr. Octopus said:
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
That's fair. It is New Orleans after all.Ilov80s said:
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
Hmmm, if it's an IDP league, then I'd keep the 2nd. I might do a 3rd though. I'm starting to like him a little more, but I might also ask for a late round pick, like a 6th, back in return.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Exactly. There’s not much to it. Pretty good RB going to a team that’s used a platoon for a decade now and is consistently one of the most productive fantasy backfields. Ingram’s 16 game pace last year was 1100 and 9.
Just looked and Murray’s 16 game pace the last 4 years has been 1100 and 8.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What does height have to do with it? He’s 217 pounds and Ivory was 222.
He did not play like a scatback. Catching passes does change his body composition either.
I don’t think we can say only small backs can succeed in New Orleans.
By the way Kamara is 215 pounds himself.
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I put no stock in the "only small backs thrive in NO" theory. Murray is going to prove he's every bit a great compliment to Kamara than Ingram was.
HairyGOATee
Footballguy
Kamara is 5'10 though. Why not look at height in addition to weight? Why rule one out? That doesn't make sense, as both need to be used to compute their BMI.
But that's fair about the part in bold. Depending on the way your league is set up, and if it is redraft or dynasty, giving up a 3rd round pick might make sense.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I’ve been deputized in the state of Wyomin and if you draft him at 89, you won’t have a future in here.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I’ve been consistently getting him in Round 8 off the turn. I’m super happy with him as my RB4. While not the exact same runner as Ingram I have to imagine they’ll attempt to use him in a similar fashion since they have had so much success with it. And you know he’ll get his touches because there’s no reason to risk Kamara.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’ve been taking him there (82/87 - 10th pick), but if it’s a heavy RB/wait on QBs & TEs mock, I’m often faced with taking him or Penny at 58/63. In those type mocks - which is how my league will draft - he’s not there at the 7th/8th turn.
Birdie048
Footballguy
When you draft early (Feb for start up Dynasty), you can have really good or really bad selections. I got lucky & took L Murray in the 16th round (pick 184)....wgoldsph said:
But why is L Murray rated so low now? FBG Rated in the low 40's RB behind Damien Harris, Jordan Howard, Royce Freeman & Ronald Jones II?
If NOS offense maintains the same play distribution, Murray should see 10-12 touches a game. Will Freeman or Jones see the field?
wgoldsph
Footballguy
As a Philly native I just don't understand the Jordan Howard love, but that's a topic for another thread.
There is every chance he gets an Ingram workload. That's exactly what he was brought in to do - take over where Ingram left off. Kamara will still get his, but Murray holds just as much value as he did the minute he signed with the Saints.
