RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (3 Viewers)

[SayWhat?]

Sanders blew his out in December and Denver is willing to pay him over $10m next year or about $8M then they would have to pay him if they cut him.

What do you think DEN would give Sanders if he were a free agent just signing now with the Broncos? A multi-year deal with tons of guaranteed money?

Exactly.  That's a rationally flawed argument to inject into this discussion. 

 

[menobrown]

What do you think DEN would give Sanders if he were a free agent just signing now with the Broncos? A multi-year deal with tons of guaranteed money?

 I blew your example out of the water and this is a weak followup.  Denver is choosing to pay a 31 year old WR who blew his achilles out in decemer $10M. Why play what if's?

 

[Anarchy99]

 I blew your example out of the water and this is a weak followup.  Denver is choosing a 31 year old WR who blew his achilled out in Denver $10M. Why play what if's?

You're right. Forget the what ifs. How about you find an actual example of a player NOT UNDER CONTRACT that was a FREE AGENT coming off a MAJOR INJURY that signed a multi-year deal with tens of millions of dollars guaranteed ON A DIFFERENT FRANCHISE. Start with that.

 

[Bayhawks]

We can make this what if argument in circles until we're all blue in the face.

At what guaranteed dollar amount do you think he would need to obtain for this holdout to have been worth it? He punted $15mm and a year during his prime, that is the only fact in this equation. 

The holdout being worth it wasn't the point.  You said you don't think he loves football because he sat out a year, and gave up $15M to do so.  My point was that those facts don't mean he doesn't love football.  It IS a business, after all.  He didn't want to play another year without a long-term guarantee, and the only way he could do that (after he and Pitt missed the deadline) was to not play at all.  Now, he will be able to sign a contract that won't force him to do that.  He WILL get more than $15M guaranteed in his next contract, so he will make up that money.

With regards to the missed season (he DID NOT hold out) being worth it, we'll never know.  

IF  you assume he took the $14.5M in 2018, and suffered an injury so catastrophic he never played again, then any contract in excess of $14.5M guaranteed means the missed season was worth it.  

IF you assume he suffered a major injury in 2018 but continued his career with major injury concerns, then his next contract would have reflected and maybe contains only $10M in guarantees, than a contract this off-season that is worth more than $24.6M in guarantees made the missed season worth it.  

IF you assume he played 2018 and stayed healthy, you have to also assume that Pitt would have used him as they had in the past (i.e.-400+ touches).  (That puts his career touches (regular season only) at right around 2000 touches.  His value would likely be lower, with another season of insane usage.)  But let's assume his contract offers in 2019, after sitting out a year, would be comparable to what his offers would have been after getting 400+ touches in 2018.  So, under what circumstances would he make up that $14.5M?  He'd have to play longer, obviously.  And while it's unrealistic to expect him to get another season at the back end of his career making $14.5M, if his new team doesn't use him at the same rate (400+ touches/year) as Pitt did, it's not unrealistic to expect him to have a bit of a longer career.  400 less touches in 2018 could reasonably result in 1 extra season at the end of his career.  Give him $5m for that year (RBs like Bilal Powell & Latavius Murry made $5M in 2018).  If he averages 250 touches a year with his new team, instead of 400/year with Pitt, it's not unreasonable to expect he'll play another extra year.  Give him anothor $5M for that year.  Now the question would be: would he play a 3rd "extra" year at the end of his career?  I'd guess no, so he'll likely end up not making as much money as he would have IF he had played 2018, been given the extremely heavy workload Pitt had been giving him, AND not suffered a major injury.

So, it depends on which assumptions you want to make, as to whether you believe his sitting out a year was "worth it" or not.

 

[Bayhawks]

tldr

I asked a very straightforward question, I even prefaced by saying let's not play the what if game. 

So you want to assume he'd have made the $14.5M in 2018, but you don't want to assume he'd have gotten hurt/stayed healthy, then you want to someone else to predict what kind of deal he'd have to make to make up for that $14.5M without assuming details like how healthy he'd have been, how many touches he'd have gotten, etc.  That's not reasonable.

 

[menobrown]

You're right. Forget the what ifs. How about you find an actual example of a player NOT UNDER CONTRACT that was a FREE AGENT coming off a MAJOR INJURY that signed a multi-year deal with tens of millions of dollars guaranteed ON A DIFFERENT FRANCHISE. Start with that.

I quit you

 

[Snotbubbles]

If he ran for 2k yards and didn't skip a beat, what type of contract would he be looking at?

See, making these what if arguments are pretty easy.

I'd imagine, adding another 400+ touches (putting him close to 2000 for his career) would temper his market.  Once you hit that 2000 touch mark, the wheels can fall off pretty quick.  At least now, a bidding team might hope to get 2 or 3 years out of him.  

 

[Godsbrother]

That's really not the point. You and many others have argued that he was essentially guaranteed $14.5 million AND a big contract as a free agent. But that is not automatically the case. Since you didn't answer my question, I will take a stab at it.

Bell coming back and suffering a catastrophic injury late in the year would not have been that surprising given he had no training camp, was not in game shape, and probably would have been asked to be a bell cow again. If he had suffered such an injury in December, that would have put his entire 2019 season at risk. He would have been lucky to get a one year, $6 million prove it deal that had only a $1 or 2 million guaranteed. Who knows if he would even have gotten on the field for 2019 at all (and thus been in the same situation for 2020). At that point, he'd be looking for a long-term deal not having played for 2 seasons at age 28.

Don't say it doesn't ever happen. Jamaal Charles found himself in that same exact situation at age 30, went on to make only $2.3 million dollars combined from two other teams, and washed out of the league. I'm pretty sure Charles wished he held out after having producing almost 3,200 YFS and 33 total TD in 2013-2014. He struggled to stay on the field for 4 more seasons and made an average of $3 million in those years.

So in my example, Bell would have earned $14.5 million last year, $6 million this year, and MAYBE $5 million next year possible from a third team. Call it $25 million for 2018-19-20 had he suffered a gruesome injury last year. I would bet Bell will get more than that in guaranteed money next week and will end up making far more combined for 2018-19-20 than that $25 million injury projection number.

That's the rationale for why he did what he did . . . even if others think he left lots of money on the table by not playing last year.

As for your example, had Bell rushed for 2k yards, PIT could have tagged him again and potentially we would be in the same situation as last year all over again. Except the chances of Bell getting injured would have multiplied times 400 carries plus whatever he would have accumulated had the Steelers made the playoffs.

The only fact in the equation that you referenced (punting on $14.5 million last year) will soon have another fact . . . whatever he gets guaranteed next week. If that number is greater than $14.5 million, than he will have made more than if he risked playing at all last season (even if he remained healthy). That's not saying he couldn't have made a lot more had he stayed healthy, but the "fact" would be that he made more than $14.5 million.

You could also make the argument that Bell could have suffered a gruesome injury in a pickup basketball game, jet skiing or falling down the steps this past year and not gotten the 14.5 million last season and a minimal contract offer (or none at all) in 2019.      Playing the "what if" game is pointless.

Bell walked away from $14.5 million but is still likely to get a very lucrative contract.  I am not sure it was the best decision but I am sure he is happy with it and that's all that matters.

 

[Bayhawks]

You could also make the argument that Bell could have suffered a gruesome injury in a pickup basketball game, jet skiing or falling down the steps this past year and not gotten the 14.5 million and minimal contract offer (or none at all) in 2019.    

You are absolutely right.  But, the counter to that is that Bell would have been in control of those things.  The Steelers had made it obvious that they were going to give Bell a heavy workload, and he would not have been in control of that.  He played 1 year, on a 1-year deal, with that workload.  He didn't want to do it again.  Those people who are saying that was dumb are refusing to account for that.

Obviously, if Bell had played in 18, survived another 400+ touches without injury, and become a FA this off-season, he'd have done better financially.  However, when you factor in the massive risk that comes with a RB getting that many touches, that is a serious mitigating factor, and  one that shouldn't (if you are trying to have a reasonable discussion) be ignored.

 

[Anarchy99]

You could also make the argument that Bell could have suffered a gruesome injury in a pickup basketball game, jet skiing or falling down the steps this past year and not gotten the 14.5 million and minimal contract offer (or none at all) in 2019.    

Bell could have bought a Powerball ticket and won $1.5 billion and never played football again. Or he could have chocked on a ham sandwich and suffered irreversible brain damage and never played football again. Or he could have taken a helmet-to-helmet hit like his teammate did and never played football again. Which one of those three potential outcomes would best fit the discussion in this thread?

 

[Godsbrother]

Bell could have bought a Powerball ticket and won $1.5 billion and never played football again. Or he could have chocked on a ham sandwich and suffered irreversible brain damage and never played football again. Or he could have taken a helmet-to-helmet hit like his teammate did and never played football again. Which one of those three potential outcomes would best fit the discussion in this thread?

The most likely scenario is that had he played last season he would have made $14.5 million in 2018 and still get the same contract offer he gets this year.

 

[irish eyes]

Neither Bell or Brown give a rat's a@@ about winning. It's all about them and their money. So good luck to whatever unfortunate teams end up with these 2.

 

[Steeler]

At what guaranteed dollar amount do you think he would need to obtain for this holdout to have been worth it?

This question is reasonable and straight forward  

 

[fantasycurse42]

The most likely scenario is that had he played last season he would have made $14.5 million in 2018 and still get the same contract offer he gets this year.

This is where I net out too. He's a year older and $15mm poorer. We can play the what if game forever, but the odds are unquestionably this would've been the net result. It was an awful financial decision. 

This question is reasonable and straight forward  

Yet everyone who responds, does so with a novel.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Neither Bell or Brown give a rat's a@@ about winning. It's all about them and their money. So good luck to whatever unfortunate teams end up with these 2.

Unlike the rest of society that works for the love of their job and not their paychecks.

 

[tangfoot]

Neither Bell or Brown give a rat's a@@ about winning. It's all about them and their money. So good luck to whatever unfortunate teams end up with these 2.

We get mad at players when they act like it's a business, but we don't seem to care when owners act like it's a business.  Don't you find that a bit strange?

 

[menobrown]

We get mad at players when they act like it's a business, but we don't seem to care when owners act like it's a business.  Don't you find that a bit strange?

No not really.

I don't think fans are anti-player. I think most fans love to see a player rewarded, but most fans understand only so much money to go around so they naturally pull for their team to be prudent in that decision making. The fan wins when their teams gets a good deal on a player, it's only natural to root for this if you are a fan of a team.

ETA-I for one don't get mad at a player for handling it like business. I never have once for example been mad at Bell despite being a Steeler fan, having him on a dynasty team and committing a first round pick on him in over $1K worth of early drafts last year. I think he made a bad business decision, never been mad at him.

 

[Catbird]

Maybe 1 in 15 or 20 RBs gets injured in a particular season so severely that it impacts their next contract? I haven't counted, but out of the 90 or so active RBs, its not very common. Add in that Bell is exceptionally good at adjusting to avoid solid hits by defenders in injury creating situations and that one in 20 or so chance should figure into your calculation.

If you are opening a restaurant you certainly need to consider that it might be burned down by lightening or a telephone pole might fall on it in a high wind, but you take that into account as a possibility and insure against it as you decide you should.  If its an otherwise good decision, though, you still go forward with the business.That's what ballplayers do every time they sign a contract - and they cover themselves in the contract or outside it as they choose for what that costs. Not opening the restaurant because something like that might happen however, is not a very good way to run your life of business. You have to compare the value of opening (or playing) to the likelihood of a disaster happening. 

Career ending injury for Bell at his age? Maybe 1 in 50 (I'm guessing)? Much cheaper to insure against the potential losses than to take the $14.5 hit in not playing last year. (Again guessing, maybe it costs $2 Mil for $50 Mil in one year of coverage? If you worry so much about what could happen that you give up huge extra value to avoid that risk, pretty soon your not leaving the house because what if you get mugged or hit by a passing car or slip and fall. You can't just say something bad might happen so you are smart to do nothing.

 

[Edgar]

Option A: Bank 14.54M + UFA in 2019

Option B: Accept Steelers 2018 long term deal (how many guaranteed million was it? Can’t recall)

Option C : Lay low til 2019 for UFA. 

Perhaps comparing the guaranteed $$ in Option B vs Option C is the way to see it. 

 

[Steeler]

Option B: Accept Steelers 2018 long term deal (how many guaranteed million was it? Can’t recall)

Option C : Lay low til 2019 for UFA. 

Perhaps comparing the guaranteed $$ in Option B vs Option C is the way to see it. 

This is what I'm going to do because both of these options deal with the injury risk and all the other what ifs.

 

[ghostguy123]

If Bell blew out his Achilles in November like Dez did, what sort of contract would LeVeon be likely to get next week?

If Bell blew out his Achilles training how dumb would he look?

 

[ghostguy123]

I think Bell needs 40 million guaranteed to make his decision worth it.

I don't think he gets that

 

[Gandalf]

I think Bell needs 40 million guaranteed to make his decision worth it.

I don't think he gets that

The decision was not worth it in hindsight. It was a gamble that did not work out. 

 

[ghostguy123]

The decision was not worth it in hindsight. It was a gamble that did not work out. 

Hindsight? It was dumb from the start.  

 

[beef]

Until he signs hindsight isn't 20/20 yet.  Lots of cap room out there.  

 

[Gandalf]

Hindsight? It was dumb from the start.  

I didn’t say it was a good gamble. Or a smart one. Or a choice I personally would have made in his shoes. Just saying that I’m sure he thought he was doing what he thought was in his best interest. And didn’t he tweet something about life being a gamble?

 

[Gandalf]

Maybe 1 in 15 or 20 RBs gets injured in a particular season so severely that it impacts their next contract? I haven't counted, but out of the 90 or so active RBs, its not very common. Add in that Bell is exceptionally good at adjusting to avoid solid hits by defenders in injury creating situations and that one in 20 or so chance should figure into your calculation.

If you are opening a restaurant you certainly need to consider that it might be burned down by lightening or a telephone pole might fall on it in a high wind, but you take that into account as a possibility and insure against it as you decide you should.  If its an otherwise good decision, though, you still go forward with the business.That's what ballplayers do every time they sign a contract - and they cover themselves in the contract or outside it as they choose for what that costs. Not opening the restaurant because something like that might happen however, is not a very good way to run your life of business. You have to compare the value of opening (or playing) to the likelihood of a disaster happening. 

Career ending injury for Bell at his age? Maybe 1 in 50 (I'm guessing)? Much cheaper to insure against the potential losses than to take the $14.5 hit in not playing last year. (Again guessing, maybe it costs $2 Mil for $50 Mil in one year of coverage? If you worry so much about what could happen that you give up huge extra value to avoid that risk, pretty soon your not leaving the house because what if you get mugged or hit by a passing car or slip and fall. You can't just say something bad might happen so you are smart to do nothing.

I think you are way low regarding injury. But your post did make me think, couldn’t Bell have taken an insurance policy on himself at Lloyd’s of London? Wouldn’t that have done away with the injury concern?

 

[ghostguy123]

I didn’t say it was a good gamble. Or a smart one. Or a choice I personally would have made in his shoes. Just saying that I’m sure he thought he was doing what he thought was in his best interest. And didn’t he tweet something about life being a gamble?

He is a bad gambler

 

[Gandalf]

He is a bad gambler

Hahaha 1000%

 

[babydemon90]

You're right. Forget the what ifs. How about you find an actual example of a player NOT UNDER CONTRACT that was a FREE AGENT coming off a MAJOR INJURY that signed a multi-year deal with tens of millions of dollars guaranteed ON A DIFFERENT FRANCHISE. Start with that.

Obv not near as big as Bell - but we can see what Ronald Darby and Jay Ajayi get this year.  Both FA's coming off knee injuries.

 

[voiceofunreason]

What do you think DEN would give Sanders if he were a free agent just signing now with the Broncos? A multi-year deal with tons of guaranteed money?

So if Sanders sat out a year at his age? Can’t see it being much more and he would have lost his money from last year. 

Way too much guaranteed money talk. This is getting dumb. There’s a lot of mental gymnastics and half-truths to prove Bell didn’t lose 14 million dollars. But he did. Sure if he got injured he would have lost some money but it still probably wasn’t 14 million, and that’s why you have insurance.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Maybe 1 in 15 or 20 RBs gets injured in a particular season so severely that it impacts their next contract? I haven't counted, but out of the 90 or so active RBs, its not very common. Add in that Bell is exceptionally good at adjusting to avoid solid hits by defenders in injury creating situations and that one in 20 or so chance should figure into your calculation.

If you are opening a restaurant you certainly need to consider that it might be burned down by lightening or a telephone pole might fall on it in a high wind, but you take that into account as a possibility and insure against it as you decide you should.  If its an otherwise good decision, though, you still go forward with the business.That's what ballplayers do every time they sign a contract - and they cover themselves in the contract or outside it as they choose for what that costs. Not opening the restaurant because something like that might happen however, is not a very good way to run your life of business. You have to compare the value of opening (or playing) to the likelihood of a disaster happening. 

Career ending injury for Bell at his age? Maybe 1 in 50 (I'm guessing)? Much cheaper to insure against the potential losses than to take the $14.5 hit in not playing last year. (Again guessing, maybe it costs $2 Mil for $50 Mil in one year of coverage? If you worry so much about what could happen that you give up huge extra value to avoid that risk, pretty soon your not leaving the house because what if you get mugged or hit by a passing car or slip and fall. You can't just say something bad might happen so you are smart to do nothing.

kinda easy to say all that until it is actually you being the one in the situation....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I quit you

I would have like to hear you answer his question about Sanders....

 

[lod001]

kinda easy to say all that until it is actually you being the one in the situation....

Yep. Robert Edwards played in a 2 hand touch game in the sand and destroyed his knee. He was lucky the Pats gave him the gift of a 2nd chance even though it ruined him.

Can't fault the player when he's trying to protect his future.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

If Bell only gets $22mm guaranteed like espn just predicted on NFL live, then his gamble last year was terrible. 

 

[Buckna]

The insurance thing isn't really a thing. Both Loss of Value and Total Disability policies are totally unregulated and are notoriously hard to get paid out. One of the more recent examples is Marquise Lee who had to sue Lloyd's of London because they refused to pay out after he fell in the draft due to a knee injury. Jake Butt made news a few years ago when someone reported he would get a $500,000 payout, but Butt was later quoted saying that the report was way overstated and he only got a small fraction of the $2M total policy he took out. Lots of other players have had to sue as well, those insurance companies always find a way to weasel out on the claims.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The insurance thing isn't really a thing. Both Loss of Value and Total Disability policies are totally unregulated and are notoriously hard to get paid out. One of the more recent examples is Marquise Lee who had to sue Lloyd's of London because they refused to pay out after he fell in the draft due to a knee injury. Jake Butt made news a few years ago when someone reported he would get a $500,000 payout, but Butt was later quoted saying that the report was way overstated and he only got a small fraction of the $2M total policy he took out. Lots of other players have had to sue as well, those insurance companies always find a way to weasel out on the claims.

While I usually agree with this, in Bell's case, I think his claim would've been more clearcut - top RB, mid 20's, playing for $15mm this year, tears an ACL, plays the next year for $3mm. 

Regardless, his decision was not a smart one from a financial standpoint, imo. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Joe Boss: hey Stinkin Ref I'm going to give you two options

Stinkin Ref: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me....

SR: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again....

SR: cool....tell your brother I'll be in touch when I get back from Cabo....

(#badbusinessdecision?)

 

[beef]

If Bell only gets $22mm guaranteed like espn just predicted on NFL live, then his gamble last year was terrible. 

Without knowing if/what might happen next, I'll take $22 over $14.5.

 

[SayWhat?]

If Bell only gets $22mm guaranteed like espn just predicted on NFL live, then his gamble last year was terrible. 

Man, it's mind numbing that people keep debating whether or not Bell made a "good" decision.  Nobody here knows Bell's financial situation, or what went into this decision.  If he and his agent sat down last year and his agent said, "Leveon, you need about $20MM guaranteed and you and your family will never have to work another day in your life," and Leveon had these options staring him in the face:

1. Play in 2018 for $14.5MM guaranteed, risking health with another 400 carry season, and assuming/hoping he gets a contract this offseason for at least that $6MM additional in guaranteed (completely likely he gets that, obviously)
   
2. Sit out 2018, "lose" the $14.5MM, with his agent providing reasonable assurance that he'd get a contract for $20-25MM guaranteed (provided he stayed healthy and out of trouble) this offseason, plus potential for future earnings beyond this contract just as in the first option
   

Even if scenario #1 would've resulted in more money  in the long run (we'll never know), is his "gamble" actually that "terrible" considering the alternative, that he "gambles" on #1 and suffers a Shazier type injury that results in zero future earnings beyond the $14.5MM? 

Maybe he just gave up $14.5MM in total career earnings by sitting out 2018.  Totally realistic.  Maybe he earns $30MM more over the rest of his career than he would have had he played in 2018.  We'll NEVER know.  NEVER. 

 

[SayWhat?]

Joe Boss: hey Stinkin Ref I'm going to give you two options

Stinkin Ref: cool....whats up

JB: Option A....I'm going to pay you $15 mil next year....but after that you are on your own no matter what happens while you are working for me....

SR: ok cool....but whats my other option...?

JB: well you don't work for me next year....and in fact you don't work for anybody next year....but....the year after that, my brother, Bill Boss, is going to hire you and he is going to hire you for 3 years and pay you $45 mil ($15 mil each year) and guarantee that you will get $30 mil of that even if you get hurt on your first day of the job with him and can't ever work again....

SR: cool....tell your brother I'll be in touch when I get back from Cabo....

(#badbusinessdecision?)

Said in a far more concise fashion than I just attempted to do. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Without knowing if/what might happen next, I'll take $22 over $14.5.

You think that if he played on the tag last year, that he would have only earned $7.5mm guaranteed in his next contract, even if he had gotten hurt?  

 

[Stinkin Ref]

You think that if he played on the tag last year, that he would have only earned $7.5mm guaranteed in his next contract, even if he had gotten hurt?  

I think the point is....he could not get another contract...

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I think the point is....he could not get another contract...

Even if he tore his achilles or acl, at age 26, he would get another contract and likey earn at least $7.5mm. Passing up potentially $36.5mm in guaranteed money for only that delta is a huge miscalculation. But maybe he gets his $50mm guaranteed, however it looks like the rb market is worse than last year ....

 

[beef]

You think that if he played on the tag last year, that he would have only earned $7.5mm guaranteed in his next contract, even if he had gotten hurt?  

That's if it were me and I knew I was guaranteed one of those two options. 

I won't argue for Bell or assume I know his thoughts/feelings.  So many hypotheticals.  I do believe Bell will make at least $22 or more after year 1 (guarantee + bonus + salary) and year 2 of the deal will probably be a significant amount too.  

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Even if he tore his achilles or acl, at age 26, he would get another contract and likey earn at least $7.5mm. Passing up potentially $36.5mm in guaranteed money for only that delta is a huge miscalculation. But maybe he gets his $50mm guaranteed, however it looks like the rb market is worse than last year ....

or he plays under the one year deal and gets an alex smith injury....

 

[Edgar]

Some great debate here about maximizing career earnings vs maximizing guaranteed money in a single windfall. 

If i’m the team paying him in 2019, i’m concerned 2018 Le’Veon knew he would be fat/crappy and that’s why he held out. If he played and got hurt, yeah that stinks. But if he played and was piss poor? Well that submarines future earnings much worse than any injury ever could. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Some recent stuff about going KC.....take a little less and win.....hmmmmmm

 

[Gandalf]

Some recent stuff about going KC.....take a little less and win.....hmmmmmm

Winning championships is good on many levels for players including $$$

 

[ghostguy123]

Winning championships is good on many levels for players including $$$

Doesn't appear that way for Bell though, otherwise he woulda played last year for 15 million guaranteed AND a great chance to win