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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
As a runner I am little concerned about Bell. In 2017 I thought teams began to catch onto his hesitation style of rushing. His ypc average suffered and he only had a handful of rushes for 20+ yards. His real value with the Jets will likely be catching the ball and I fully expect 70+ receptions.Gandalf said:
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
The Steelers really did not miss Bell and all of their rushing stats proved that they were slightly better without Bell..I think they will miss Brown more than Bell. Shuster is more than capable as he has proved but they need to add another WR.Godsbrother said:
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Godsbrother
Footballguy
No doubt AB will be missed. The Moncrief signing was a good one and Washington has potential. They aren't AB, not even close, but I remember this board going nuts when the Steelers let Wallace go and gambled by giving the big contract to Brown.
rockaction
Footballguy
Generally, when I'm crying in my beer over the leagues I've lost, I think to myself that I shouldn't have blocked that righteous guy whose views on the CBA were certainly novel back in 1986.
Bell's value hinges on what the Jets continue to do with their cap room and offensive line. It also depends on their skill position players and Darnold's growth. Can other teams get away with eight in the box? Because you know that's how they're going to come out to start the year (before adjustments) with Bell now in the backfield. Bell is a high-risk, high-reward volume guy right now.Gandalf said:
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
Bell has been going as the 7th/8th RB taken in early FFPC drafts I’ve done. Seems about right with potential for upside. I can see 2016 type Bell numbers in a full 16 game season with the Jets.
Bell's actually going to make less money after year 1, after year 2 and after year 3 on his Jets deal then the one he turned down from the Steelers. He got $25M total guarantee but just $8M signing bonus and next year he'll make about what he gave up to not play in 2018, $14.5M.
Might be the most ill advised holdout in history of NFL.
Might be the most ill advised holdout in history of NFL.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Yep. Details
@MMehtaNYDN: Details of Le’Veon Bell’s contract: $25M total guarantee. $8M signing bonus.
Cash after Year 1: $14.5M
Thru Year 2: $26M
Thru Year 3: $39.5M
Base salaries in first 2 yrs($2M & $6.5M) fully guaranteed.
So, we’re talking about $26M cash for the first two yrs. Good deal for Jets
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Jeez, now even with Barnwell's C- grade of the deal (which assumed $35 M guaranteed) I'm sort of excited about this.
But the Jets need to upgrade the line. Crowell was 46 out of 47 in RB success rate (success rate given a minimum amount of carries) last year, according to Football Outsiders, and that can't all be Crowell, can it?
Hmm...
But the Jets need to upgrade the line. Crowell was 46 out of 47 in RB success rate (success rate given a minimum amount of carries) last year, according to Football Outsiders, and that can't all be Crowell, can it?
Hmm...
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This is where I am on him too - think in a PPR league, he'll be a beast. If he plays in all 16 games, I'd expect a line of like:
304/1200/12
82/800/3
Think I'm close on YPcarries, generous on the YPcatch
Also have to think he fires anyone who advised him throughout this process.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Weird thought, but is it possible his agent didn't understand Gurley's contract?
Maybe he took advice from someone else but his agent is not at fault in this, if anything his agent should be upset at Bell for making him look bad.
Reason his agent should not be blamed is that agent worked out a long term deal with Steeler's and it was Bell, not the agent, who nixed that deal. Can't blame the agent on this one.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sources today reporting that the agent tried to encourage him to take the Steelers' deal, per SI.com's article about the contract.
Boone22
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's the first thing that I thought of.
Then again, it's not the agent's fault that Coleman only got $10 M for two. They're running backs, and the Gurley/Johnson signings and subsequent injuries seem to provide a cautionary tale.
As an aside, there's going to be a time -- if there hasn't been already -- where the best athletes will want to play different positions than RB if it continues to be paid like it has been.
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There is no guaranteed money after the 2020 season so the Jets can cut him and only have a dead money cap hit of 4M.
The Steeler's deal would have paid him 33M in the first two years and 45M in the first three years.
Bell got 12.5M for 2017 and then could have signed the Steelers offer and got a total of 33M more in 2018/2019 and have 45.5M by the end of the 2019 season.
True the Steeler offer only included 10M guaranteed at signing but also included another 10M due within days of signing.
It look's like Bell's only decision was to accept the Jets offer or retire and pursue his music career. I don't think this turned out anywhere close to what he was expecting.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You can lead a horse to water but you can’t change stupid: https://twitter.com/sharpfootball/status/1106230792773165058?s=21
steelers1080
Footballguy
Nobody apparently.Gandalf said:
I think we're still surprised at how poorly it turned out for him. He held out a full year to only gain $5 million in guaranteed money, but earn $7 million less in the first 2 years of the contract.
It seems like he had a vastly inflated view of his value. If he had told the Steelers earlier in the process that he wasn't going to sign the Franchise Tag, instead of at the last second, they might have allowed him to look for a trade. His agent could have talked to other teams about potential value and realized that there weren't huge offers out there.
I'd be surprised if any player held out for a full year again for a long time.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’ll only say top 10 RB for now until I actually do projections. Once that is done I’ll say probably around RB5-7.Gandalf said:
Probably going to put him at RB5 or RB6 for now and for that matter player 5 or player 6.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Do I get a prize? I guessed the Jets, almost nailed the 3-year contract total, but was under on the guaranteed money.
Where's the pat-yourself-on-the-back emoji?
rockaction
Footballguy
It's an emoji that suspiciously looked like John Conner and was retired from board use on 8/26
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
That really wasn't his style the first two years. That developed as he got to know his line. I expect he will not be waiting to hit the holes same as he did his rookie year.
Good thing he didn’t play under the tag last year and get an Alex Smith type injury....or any injury for that matter because he probably wouldn’t’t have got such a good deal....yeah, maybe he should have taken one of the Steelers initial offers if it was all about the money...don’t think he really wanted to be there.....but its pretty clear to see that the decision not to play under the tag was the right call....
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Didn’t Earl Thomas break his leg last year and just get a big deal from the ravens?
Balco
Footballguy
irish eyes
Footballguy
You'll never win with the bell apologists leeroy. All of them saying for months oh its going to be 45 to 50 guaranteed at least. Now, it's well he didnt want to be there. He did the right thing. No he didnt and now he plays for a bottom dweller just as expected but for even less money.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
As for Bell's PPR potential with the Jets. We have to assume it is high because it is such a big part of his game. But I wonder about all the plays where Big Ben dumped it off to him, as opposed to scripted plays to throw to the RB. I feel like there is a level of discipline required by the QB in order to complete a larger than average number of checkdowns. Vet QBs tend to be better at it. Ben is great at it. What are people's sense of Arnold in this regard? I didn't watch the Jets much last year. I know he can extend plays, which is good for Bell.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m not going to guess the percentages but I don’t think that many of Bell’s receptions were necessarily “dump offs” - he lined up as a receiver at times and they designed screens for him.barackdhouse said:
The Jets have a new staff so what happened last season is mostly irrelevant anyway.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. Yeah, you against the universe. I'll think I'll take the guy on the internet named "Stinkin Ref."Stinkin Ref said:
Good call.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
He wouldn’t say how much he weighed on a media call yesterday. Just that he “will be” in football shape ....
rockaction
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
we....get....itStinkin Ref said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He looked to be in good shape, not overweight at all - he said he's been working out hard since December. The way the contract is structured (basically a two year deal) he will need to perform to see the bigger money, so I don't think him letting himself go will be an issue.
I wonder what kind of free agency deal deal Bell would have received March 12, 2019 if he he played December 30, 2018 under the franchise tag against the Bengals and blew out his ACL?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wonder how much money he would have right now had he blew out his ACL in December training or playing basketball or falling down the stairs while drunk/high?
matuski
Footballguy
You keep acting like these are the same. You have posted this about 100 times in this thread.
The goal was to minimize risk.
Clearly the likelihood of a major injury happening is greater when you are the most heavily used player in the NFL over the course of a season than that of falling down stairs.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I post this every time someone acts like him being healthy was a guarantee, cause it sure wasnt
matuski
Footballguy
You are really choosing to die on a weird hill.
Nobody denies freak accidents can happen. Weird that you are putting it on par with playing in the NFL.
