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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Don’t have it, don’t need it.
Off the top of my head:
Josh Gordon last year. Joey Bosa.
Darrelle Revis
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So, 3 players, in the last what, 13 years (Revis drafted in 2007) is a “major pattern?”
Fuethermore, the players you mentioned were missing TC/pre-season and jumping straight into game situations, not starting their season with TC, right? Essentially, Bell will be, “hold out wise,” at no more risk than any other player attending TC, right?
Actually, yes. On a per touch basis, Drake was absolutely capable of being wrecked. Why Gase used Gore so much was puzzling to most everyone.
You go ahead and take Bell. He is a very good back. But I watched him at MSU and I think being part of the Steelers offense is being overlooked. Connor looked great in that same offense. Combine that with the Jets O-line, a 2nd year QB, questionable WR/ TE talent and Gase........I will pass.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
30+ year old DeAngelo Williams was a rock solid RB1 in the Steelers offense. James Conner who to me, is a pretty average back from a talent perspective was a rock solid RB1 in that offense. Aside from his height, weight, hand size, and arm length, Conner is a sub-par athlete (https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/james-conner). Jaylen Samuels was serviceable. Basically, anyone who has run behind that line in that offense has been a fantasy starter.
I think Bell will get the volume, but owners are going to be moderately disappointed in what he does with it. My bet is that he will be a good fantasy RB, but I have my doubts that he can be a weekly difference-maker like he was in Pittsburgh. I like Conner better as a fantasy asset myself.
I think Bell will get the volume, but owners are going to be moderately disappointed in what he does with it. My bet is that he will be a good fantasy RB, but I have my doubts that he can be a weekly difference-maker like he was in Pittsburgh. I like Conner better as a fantasy asset myself.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Bell will probably be RB 10-15 this year if he stays healthy, but I don't think he has a shot at the top 5.
You're comparing a 12 game sample size of 30+ year old DWill, a 12 game sample size of James Conner to Bell, and a 2 game sample size with Samuels.
I'm not going to analyze Samuels, because it's too small a sample size, IMO.
But in DWill's 12 games (over 2 years) as the starting RB in Pitt, he had 5 good/great games (over 100 total yards, with at least a 4.0 YPC, TDs are a bonus), 4 "meh" games saved by either volume or TDs (non-PPR FF points of at least 10, but largely due to volume and/or TDs), and 3 bad games (low yardage, no TDs, low volume; under 8 non-PPR FF points). That equates to 42% good/great games, 75% usable games (due to either great play, volume, and/or TDs), and 25% bad games.
In Conner's 12 games (2018 season) as the starting RB in Pitt, he had 7 good/great games, 3 "meh" games saved by volume/TDs, and 2 bad games. That equals 58% good/great games, 75% usable games, and 25% bad games.
In Bell's 60 games as starting RB (not counting WK 17 games where he didn't play full game, or games where he got injured and left early) in Pitt, he had 36 good/great games, 19 "meh" games saved by volume/TDs, and 5 bad games. That equates to 60% good/great games, 92% usable games, and 8% bad games.
So, Bell was clearly better, with a much larger sample, over a much longer period of time than those other 2 backs. That is why he was the starter, why he was a multi-time Pro Bowler, and a multi-time All-Pro. He was a great back in a great offense, leading to elite, top-3 RB production. Those other guys were good backs in great offenses (although the book on Conner is still open; he made a huge improvement from year 1 to year 2) leading to solid RB1 production.
Does Bell get a downgrade going from the Steelers to the Jets? Of course. But, the Steelers offense has declined during the off-season, while the Jets offense has improved. Pitt had the 4th ranked offense in 2018, and are projected by bleacher report to be the 12th best offense after the 2019 draft. NYJ was 29th in offense in 2018, and is projected by BR to be 24th after the 2019 draft. Pitt went from AB at WR1 to JJSS. That's not too bad; but they went from JJSS at WR2 to Donte Moncrief. That's a huge hit. Furthermore, the Steelers lost their starting RT this off-season, plus their O-line coach (look at the improvement in Pitt's offense while Munchak was there from 2014-2018: top 7 in yards, top-10 in points each year. Compared to the 5 years prior to his arrival: only higher than 12th in yards once-back in 2009, and never higher than 12th in points). Meanwhile, the Jets added to their O-line, with the trade for Osemele, and the drafting of Edoga in the 3rd round. Pro football focus ranked the Jets as having the 3rd most improved O-line BEFORE the draft. Roethlisberger is clearly the better QB, but Darnold looked good as a rookie. Ben will clearly be better in 2019 (barring injury), but I don't see him improving on his 2018 performance (perhaps fewer INTs), while it wouldn't be shocking for Darnold to post better numbers. Pitt still has the better offense, but the gap is likely to by much closer than it was in 2018.
Top-5 would be tough. He'd need significant TDs to get there. I don't know if the Jets offense will be improved enough to give him that chance.
Nero
Footballguy
If Bell stays healthy, no way he falls out of the top 10. A healthy Bell is getting at least 70 catches. Top 5 is definitely within his reach.
matuski
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Conner did not break 1000 yards rushing last year in that offense, broke down halfway through the season, did not even suit up the last 3 games. Rock solid, until the rock crumbled.
If I recall, DeAngelo only started the second half of that season as well.
eta - point being I feel like you have to draft 2-3 PIT RBs to cover for when the starter breaks down from the volume. Bell, balancing for the fact he is getting older, has at least shown he can handle it throughout an entire season.
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Flying Elvis
Footballguy
I can see him missing the top 5 but I have a hard time putting 9 RBs ahead of him in FF production by season's end. After CMC, Barkley, Kamara, Elliot, and Gordon things get tough to predict. That number 6 spot is open.
Gurley seems unlikely to get the volume he'll need to get it.
Connor could if he's able to handle the high volume without breaking down.
There are plenty of other names that could make the top 10 with some luck, favorable schedules, some improvement around them, and/or the ability to remain healthy. But none that seem to be any more likely than Bell to do so. I'd pick Bell to be right there simply as the guy with the most to prove coming out of the gate.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
My point was not that Dwill and Conner are better RBs than Bell. My point was that a couple of average guys put up very good results in that offense. Those guys were very clearly fantasy RB1s (regardless of any great/serviceable/bad breakdown) and they were backups. Great offense and a great system for the RB. Bell benefited from that just like they have. I think you get that too based on the first sentence in your last paragraph - so I think that while you seemed to be disputing my post, we actually agree.
Steeler
Footballguy
The Steelers traded him for a 6th round pick otherwise he was going to be cut. He's been hurt/suspended so much over the last 2 years he hardly played so I don't really consider this a hit to the offense. I'm not trying to nitpick, just relaying information.Bayhawks said:
I’m not disputing your post, I’m adding context. The Steelers offense was good, and Bell was great in it; DWill and Conner were good (not trying to argue semantics; the point is Bell had better production with that good offense than those other RBs did).ChuckLiddell said:
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I understand that, but the fact that when he was (rarely) available, he was playing, suggests that the player that will replace him (as far as I know, they didn’t add any big names in FA/draft) is not as good. Therefore, it’s a negative change for that O-Line.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
No one is arguing that Bell is not the better back but it is clear that a large part of the credit for RB production in Pittsburgh goes to the offense in general
The best ability in an offensive lineman is availability and Gilbert wasn't. Matt Feiler started 10 games last season so effectively Gilbert has already been replaced. They also drafted Chukwuma Okorafor in the 3rd round in 2018 and he started 1 game last year too. The "loss" of Marcus Gilbert is the least of my concerns with the 2019 Steelers.
But when both Gilbert & Feiler we’re available, it wasn’t Feiler starting, it was Gilbert. That suggests that Gilbert was the better player, and now that he is gone, the Steelers line is not as good.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Gilbert was the starter heading into the season. He missed week 3 and came back to play 2 more games before getting injured for the season and replaced with Feiler. We have no way of knowing what the Steelers coaching staff thought of each player after that but one certainty is they felt Gilbert was expendable in the offseason. That suggests to me that they don't agree with your assessment that the offensive line is not as good.
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Steeler
Footballguy
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GilbMa00.htm
We have evidence that the Steelers Oline is good without Gilbert because he missed 20 of 32 games over the last 2 years and the Steelers were still considered to have one of the best Olines in the NFL.
No disrespect, but the suggestion that you’re assuming seems flawed.Godsbrother said:
1) Pitts coaches played Gilbert over Feiler, not once, but twice. They only played Feiler when forced to, b/c of injury. That suggests they believe Gilbert gives them a better offensive line.
2) According to Overthecap.com, Pitt has a little over $4M in cap space. Gilbert is making almost $5M this year, while Feiler is making $645K. That suggests that the cap implications were a significant part of the decision to trade Gilbert.
3) Someone else said “the best ability is availability;” so, even if Pitt traded Gilbert b/c he wasn’t available enough, the O-line still takes a hit for 6 games (assuming he’d only play 6 games, like he averaged the last 2 years).
All that being said, I don’t think Pitt will suck this year; my point was that with the loss of Munchak and Gilbert, it’s not a given that the O-line will replicate their performance of the last few years. They could be better, they could be worse, but it’s a but short-sighted to say “Pitts O-line was better in 2018, so they WILL be better in 2019.”
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I didn't say that. YOU were the one that said the Steelers line is not as good because of the loss of Gilbert.
I didn’t say that you did. My original post was in reply to a post that said something along those lines. The Steelers line, right now, isn’t as good. At the end of the season, we may say it was better, but that remains to be seen. Right now, losing a good lineman (even if he only plays 6 games) and replacing him with another lineman who the Pittsburgh coaches decided was inferior, TWO TIMES, last year leads one to the conclusion that the OLine is worse.
Maybe Feiler comes back in the best shape of his life & is a markedly better player this year than Gilbert. That’s certainly a possibility. But, as of right now, with the facts we have, Pitt has downgraded at that spot, and hasn’t (AFAIK) improves at another spot to offset it. It makes more sense to believe the line has declined than to believe it will have maintained the status quo, or improved.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I disagree with your post in it's entirety and I think we've hijacked this thread long enough. Apologies to everyone...
steelers1080
Footballguy
I think that there are definitely 8-10 RBs that could outrank Leveon, and I don't think that Leveon stays healthy the whole season if he gets a heavy workload. He's gotten hurt in the past almost every season, if he has a big workload (which he'll need to succeed) I think he plays 12 games.
Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, McCaffrey, Conner, Chubb, Cook, Fournette, Mixon, David Johnson, in no particular order. The Jets O-line is worse than the last O-line that Bell played with in Pitt, the QB is worse, and the WR corps has no star to take away coverage. Bell is going to be the defensive focus, and I'm not sure he'll be able to reliably overcome that.
Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, Gordon, McCaffrey, Conner, Chubb, Cook, Fournette, Mixon, David Johnson, in no particular order. The Jets O-line is worse than the last O-line that Bell played with in Pitt, the QB is worse, and the WR corps has no star to take away coverage. Bell is going to be the defensive focus, and I'm not sure he'll be able to reliably overcome that.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Exactly, not the kind of back you want for a fantasy playoff run, and don't forget he's also got his guaranteed money now.
I'm guessing he'll play motivated football to start the season, but we'll figure out how much his heart is in it after he's been getting beat up with 25-30 touches per game and the Jets are 3-7.
Gandalf
Footballguy
This is how I feel too. He is so talented. I think a year off has people questioning that but I think he should be fresher in 2019.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Count me a Bell doubter!
While I think Bell did some amazing things in Pitt, he is in a whole new environment. I cannot put him Top 5 based on "Volume".... HC Gase has not shown how to use the skill players he has (K Drake for example). The OL is not accustomed to his "delayed" style of running or hitting holes. I just do not have faith in Bell since he has been out of football for a year, got his fat wallet and has a whole new system/Offense. While the "wear and tear" from a year off help, it can also hurt his conditioning, resolve to play hard & grind thru injuries.
IMO, Bell will break 1100 total yards, but his TD's will be limited as NYJ are a work in process.... He will still be a workhorse, but with very limited yards per touch.
I see Bell more in line with 10-15 RB Range... in the range of A Jones or Fournette.
In no particular order: CMC, Zeke, AK, Gordon, Mixon, Chubb, Cook, DJ, Kerryon, Guice, Sony, Mack
Now these guys also have questions (DJ, Guice, etc), but this is the Bell thread! FWIW - I traded Bell away for Ingram & Hunt recently (I am a Chubb owner)
While I think Bell did some amazing things in Pitt, he is in a whole new environment. I cannot put him Top 5 based on "Volume".... HC Gase has not shown how to use the skill players he has (K Drake for example). The OL is not accustomed to his "delayed" style of running or hitting holes. I just do not have faith in Bell since he has been out of football for a year, got his fat wallet and has a whole new system/Offense. While the "wear and tear" from a year off help, it can also hurt his conditioning, resolve to play hard & grind thru injuries.
IMO, Bell will break 1100 total yards, but his TD's will be limited as NYJ are a work in process.... He will still be a workhorse, but with very limited yards per touch.
I see Bell more in line with 10-15 RB Range... in the range of A Jones or Fournette.
In no particular order: CMC, Zeke, AK, Gordon, Mixon, Chubb, Cook, DJ, Kerryon, Guice, Sony, Mack
Now these guys also have questions (DJ, Guice, etc), but this is the Bell thread! FWIW - I traded Bell away for Ingram & Hunt recently (I am a Chubb owner)
matuski
Footballguy
I like your trade. I don't like the repeated use of Gase with Drake as a knock on Bell. Drake isn't Bell, isn't worthy of mention in the same sentence.
I have Bell somewhere in the 6-8 range. I can't imagine putting Sony, Kerryon, Chubb, Mixon, or Guice over him right now.
Zeke/CMC/Kamara/Barkley/Gurley
Bell/Gordon/DJ
Cook/Conner/Kerryon/Mixon/Chubb/White (over Sony in ppr imo)
I dunno about Guice yet.
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Godsbrother
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
I consider that old for workhorses. Just look at the age of the other top backs....almost all younger.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
I think that Drake's home run plays are more attractive for fantasy owners, but he had a lot of no-gainers. He's perhaps not a great move the chains back. That's why Gore got so many touches. They probably went overboard in not giving Drake enough touches to break it off.
But Bell is an elite back in all aspects. He'll get the touches.
I don't think I'll have him on a ton of my teams this year. I think the volume is there. I don't think the Jets offense with Darnold and Robbie Anderson is as good as an offense with Ben and Brown. I suspect I'll have to take him higher than I'll feel confident with. I'll let someone else take the risk at this point and see where the chips fall. If he winds up falling to the 2nd, slam dunk. But I don't think that will be the case.
But Bell is an elite back in all aspects. He'll get the touches.
I don't think I'll have him on a ton of my teams this year. I think the volume is there. I don't think the Jets offense with Darnold and Robbie Anderson is as good as an offense with Ben and Brown. I suspect I'll have to take him higher than I'll feel confident with. I'll let someone else take the risk at this point and see where the chips fall. If he winds up falling to the 2nd, slam dunk. But I don't think that will be the case.
Birdie048
Footballguy
While I agree Drake is not in the same league as Bell, Le'Veon has had significant wear and tear on his body over the course of his NFL career (over 1500 touches in 5 seasons, not counting his 750+ touches in college) is directly the result of the short life span of RB's. Will NYJ "grind him into the ground" and give him 400 touches a year for 2019 & 2020? If so, they won't have anything left in 2021 but a beaten pulp.
I don't see the year off as a positive. He "Tasted the fruit" of non-NFL control, no drug testing, no brutal workouts, free to enjoy his choice of lifestyle. What will happen when the Jets go 1-4 or 2-6 early in the season? Will he give his all? It's a non-playoff caliber mentality that will eat into his performance and it suffers (purely my opinion). He got paid. Why sacrifice more?
I don't see the year off as a positive. He "Tasted the fruit" of non-NFL control, no drug testing, no brutal workouts, free to enjoy his choice of lifestyle. What will happen when the Jets go 1-4 or 2-6 early in the season? Will he give his all? It's a non-playoff caliber mentality that will eat into his performance and it suffers (purely my opinion). He got paid. Why sacrifice more?
I think it's fair to add Cook, Kerryon, Sony and Mack to the "guys who have questions" list. There's an entire smorgasbord of RBs who could explode/bust this season.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This isn’t even remotely close to what you were implying by bringing up how Gase misused Drake in this thread.
If you want to set an over/under on 400 touches mostly everyone will take the under.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
“The New York Daily News' Manish Mehta reports coach Adam Gase "absolutely did not want to sign" Le'Veon Bell this offseason.”
Interesting.
Interesting.
Birdie048
Footballguy
WOW! That is a bit shocking.... but I wonder if it is more that it puts pressure on him to use him better than his previous RB's.
So, should we expect him to not give Bell high volume or to try and use Ty M more?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I know we can throw logical thinking out the window with Adam Gase, however, Bell will get his carries and catches. It's one thing to not put Kenyan Drake on the field. It's a whole nother story to leave Le'Veon Bell on the sidelines.
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Flying Elvis
Footballguy
The story is more about the rift between Gase and fired GM Mac. But holy hell does Gase have cheese for brains? Instead of alienating a player, maybe just shut up or simply say positive things about having a stud offensive weapon.
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
He's gotta be more upset with the money spent on him rather than the actual player.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Yes, the statement was about the money spent, not the player. All-star shock title by a media scrub.
But the player just finished a year-long snit over perceived lack of fair compensation.
He might not take well to being called overpaid by the new regime.
(Or maybe since he is paid now, he couldn’t care less. He might even agree he’s being overpaid now....nah.)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
Probably... But I was surprised by the "news"... while I agree it was probably $ issue, not talent issue, it could also be a "not my guy" or a Locker Room distraction concern.
So Bell will still see > 350 touches if Gase expects to keep his job, but maybe he makes it difficult for him? Whoever OC is puts Bell as #3 option on read, not primary?
Anyway you look at it, bad move by Gase.
