Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Is it too early to look this far ahead? Perhaps not. I will go thru and start doing an inventory of the games for week 1 and also talk a little bit about the 1st 3-4 games of the schedule for the RB as well.
New Orleans at Indianapolis: This is going to be a prime match up for both of these clubs as they have solid OL and passing games that should open up plenty of running room underneath for Addai, Bush, and McAllister.
Reggie Bush: The Saints got Jahri Evans in the 4th round out of Bloomsburg College…sounds like a department store league of sorts. Talk about a steal! The problem for the Saints is they are pretty mediocre in short yardage and RT John Stinchcomb IMO is one of the worst starting RT in the league when it comes to run blocking. Of course you are going to start Bush as Indy is still a team that will likely give up yards on the ground…they lost Cato June for better or worse, I personally liked him but understand why Colts fans felt he was a possible liability at times.
Deuce McAllister: I would be a little leery of starting this guy in week 1. I would like to see if they are going to give him 15+ carries a game before I start playing him every week. Bush is in year 2 and I expect an expanded role for him. Certainly he eats up a lot of the screens and passes out of the backfield. Deuce is one of those players that could end up in the box scores with 60 yds and 2 TD or 40 yds and no TD…I would say he is a risky play in week 1. The Saints are not going to be running the clock out on Indy in their building, I assure you.
New Orleans will go on the road back to back to open the season before playing the Titans at home and then an early season bye week. Going on the road to open the season back to back is no fun. But the Saints have a solid offense and while an expectation to duplicate what they did last year may be asking a lot, they should still do well for their owners.
Joseph Addai: Of course you start him but let’s talk about the OL. Tarik Glenn has retired so trading up to get Tony Ugoh in the draft was pretty smart…he may be starting sooner rather than later with Glenn’s retirement. Jeff Saturday is a two time Pro bowler the last couple of seasons and he is the glue in the middle of the OL with Jake Scott and Ryan Lilja on both sides of him. They make a solid interior that rarely faces an 8 man front with you know who lining up under center. Addai should have a great season.
After opening against NO, the Colts get 10 days off and then go back to back on the road @Ten, and @Hou…they should be fine. Then it is home to play Denver and Tampa Bay. You don’t think about the schedule too much when you are starting players on Peyton Manning’s team.
Atlanta at Minnesota: I can tell you now that the Falcons are heading for a likely double digit loss season…maybe worse.
Warrick Dunn: Will he be on the team? Likely he will but he is out till almost the opener and Jerious Norwood is going to get plenty of action in the preseason. Still, as long as Dunn can play he will see the ball, assuming he is not pushed off the team. I don’t know why I keep bringing it up but he seems like a candidate for that to happen since the Falcons are going nowhere…but maybe not just because of the fan reaction to it.
The Falcons’ OL is revamping a bit. Justin Blalock played Tackle in college but is expected to start at Guard this year for Atlanta. How will Gandy and Weiner at Tackle adjust to Joey Harrington under center? Will the running lanes still be there as theyw ere when Vick was under center. Vick being out will not help the running game for the Falcons, scouts’ honor.
Jerious Norwood: Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.
Update 9/1: Just wanted to add that while most of the Shark Pool knows about Norwood...most of the guppy leagues I have taken part in this weekend he is a complete mystery to folks. I got him in the 9th and 10th round of a couple of drafts this wekend. if you play in leagues where you know nobody else is posting on these MB...don't waste a high pick o this guy. I am not real optimistic about him this season but I readily scooped him up as my RB4 in leagues this weekend.
And did I mention the Viking gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
Chester Taylor: I doubt he is going to be the starter for more than a minute but he did log 1,200 yds on the ground…I think the next guy I mention is likely to have his coming out party very early in the season…in fact I expect the next guy we talk about to kick the door down, open up a can of “get the (expletive) out of my way”, and then leave a hole the size of a Navy Destroyer on his way out the back of the Metrodome.
Before we salivate over Adrian Peterson, let’s have a look at the OL here. McKinnie and Hutch make one of the most expensive left sides in the NFL. Expect the MN RB to run between the A gap of Birk/Hutch and the B Gap of Hutch/McKinnie as well as Off Tackle Left as many times as they can get away with calling it all season long. And while I think Tavaris Jackson has limited upside as an NFL Qb, he really doesn’t have to worry about his blindside much when he drops back…so maybe he can keep the defense honest enough to keep the ground game moving for the Vikes. If you can run the ball and stop the run you are going to win games and I expect the Vikings to make a push for at least the wildcard this season.
Update 9/1: Definitely going to see some action this seson...might be a total split week 1.
Adrian Peterson: Obviously keep an eye on him in training camp but they drafted him #7 with Chester Taylor already on their roster…what are the odds he is going to be watching and learning form the sidelines? Nill! I would give him a green light and especially against a Falcons’ team that will resemble Rocky when he was beaten in 3 rounds by Clubber Lang for most of the year…”Mickey”…”Michael”.
After feasting on the Falcons, Minnesota get to play Detroit, KC, and GB before they have a bye week…Peterson might have 500 yds in his 1st 4 games. “Cadillac” might have his record broken quickly this season.
Denver at Buffalo:
Travis Henry: Will see plenty of action and will be given every opp to have a 1,500 yd rushing season. The Broncos’ OL is declining for sure. Nalen is 36 and Lepsis coming off an ACL tear which forced him to miss most of last season is 33. The development of the Denver passing game will keep teams honest and open up lanes for Henry. Oh yeah, and the Buffalo defense has bottom 5 potential this season so definitely start him.
Mike Bell: You are kidding, right? If you are one of those people that think Mike Bell is going to cause headaches for Travis Henry owners, you obviously have not being paying any attention to the off season.
Marshawn Lynch: I wouldn’t expect him to post great numbers right away but he will be the starter here, no doubt. Put away those Anthony Thomas pom poms right now.
Update 9/1: Lynch has had a terrible preseason.
After Buff, Denver will see OAK, and JAX at home, @Indy, and then SD at home…not a super easy schedule but I do like their 2 opening games a lot.
Denver, @Pitt, @NE, NYJ, DALLAS…that is what Buffalo opens with. DO not think you can start Lynch as your RB1 and have a great year this season. He is going to have to fall quite a bit for me to want him this season.
Kansas City at Houston:
Larry Johnson: This is going to get ugly. There isn’t much incentive for him to report on time or really want to play for a team that is going nowhere this year. His OL is not as bad as some make out to seem. He runs very well between the Tackles so his interior of the OL is actually pretty strong with LG Brian Waters who is probably a top5 Guard. Will Shield being gone however is not good. Wiegmann will suffer some at Center because of this. Bottom line here is LJ could miss a lot of time during the season with a bitter holdout. He wants somewhere in the $25 million guaranteed range…Chiefs want to give him about $13 million so they are miles apart.
Update 9/1: I have some tempered enthusiasm...he will get the ball a lot but I don't see how he is going to be able to post 15-20 TD this season.
Michael Bennett: If LJ holds out a long time, you might just see Bennett on the field, however that isn’t a good thing and here is why.
After the Chiefs play an improved and surging Houston team that will beat them in week 1. They then have to take on...YOU IN THE BACK…YES YOU…PAY ATTENTION! They then have to take on Chicago on the road, MN, @SD, and then JAX…now these are some of the hardest run defenses in the league. Where are the Chiefs who lost their starting QB in the off season which I haven’t even addressed…where is this running game going to thrive? Season gets better later so let someone else take the Chiefs, and when that owner is struggling and the Chiefs get into friendlier water, you swoop in and make the trade for LJ, assuming he is playing at that point.
Ahman Green: Start him. He should see about 15-20 touches a game and I expect Houston to score more points this season and have some shorter fields set up by an improved defense that now has a legitimate DL in place to take pressure of the secondary and also create holes for the LB to get in and make tackles. Green will make an excellent RB2 this season. I PPR leagues he will play almost like an RB1.
They play KC, @Car, then INDY, @Atl, Miami…the schedule looks pretty good early.
Miami at Washington:
Ronnie Brown: Will get plenty of chances but I see the drafting of Lorenzo Booker as a sign that Miami feels Brown should not be an every down back. Be careful where you draft him in redraft leagues. The Dolphins OL is going thru some growing pains. Samson Setele should start right away at Center, Liwienski and Rex Hadnot are better run blockers than they are at pass protecting. As long as Trent Green is upright he will keep defenses honest and there should be some running lanes for Brown.
The Skins were terrible at stopping the run last season…what’s changed? Not sure much has.
Clinton Portis: Will make owners happy in week 1. Solid OL to run behind. I think LAdell Betts will actually help him make it thru the season not hinder him. Portis is a nice late 1st early 2nd round sleeper of sorts. I am not excited about his QB situation but could Campbell be any worse than Brunell at this point? The answer is NO!
Ladell Betts: Wait and see what his role will be. My guess is he will likely get on the field for an entire drive about 1 out of 3 times depending on the score and situation.
After being on the road @Wash, Miami will then go home to play DALLAS, @NYJ, OAK, @Hou, @Cleve…a mixed bag of sorts as they try and find some cohesiveness on offense.
Washington will go on to play @Philly, NYG, Bye week, DET, @GB, AZ…as usual they don’t get a lot of easy games but Det, GB, and AZ is a nice 3 week stretch fairly early in the season.
New England at New York Jets
Laurence Maroney: Clearly he will be a play almost every week. I expect NE most weeks to be well ahead going into the late 3rd and early 4th quarter. The Pats have a chance to put together one of the all time great teams this season. They created a dynasty a few years ago but they never get the props of the ’72 Dolphins, ’75 Steelers, ’85 Bears, ’89 49ers, or ’93 Cowboys…but they have a chance to do just that this season. It’s not about Randy Moss but the entire team from top to bottom. They didn’t just go get Moss, but they signed Stallworth and Wes Welker too. They had a great defense but went out and got Adalius Thomas for good measure. Asante Samuel would be nuts to miss out on being part of this team in 2007. Was I supposed to write about Maroney here? Cleary you start him every week as long as he is healthy. I would expect 100 yds a week for him as he will likely be helping the Pats run the clock out in the 2nd half after Brady has unleashed hell on opposing defenses in the 1st half. I am a Miami Dolphins fan but I will likely be watching as much of the NE Patriots as I can this season…they will be that good. And it doesn’t hurt that Maroney has a top 5 maybe even top 2 OL blocking in front of him.
Schedule is a non issue for NE this year…but it isn’t all that hard.
Thomas Jones: Probably not going to light it up on NE in week 1. OL is starting to come together in New York, look for success later on into the season.
NE, @Balt, MIAMI, @Buff, @NYG, PHI, @Cinci, BUFF, WASH…mixed bag here. I think the Jets have their work cut out for them to repeat 2006.
Philly at Green Bay
Brian Westbrook: The Eagles have a very solid OL. Shawn Andrews is thought to be perhaps the league’s best Guard. Westy is a must start almost every week but GB is pretty soft on defense and he should go off in week 1.
Brandon Jackson: No way the offense will be trusted to him in week 1. I see a split with Vernand Morency and Morency might actually be the starter week 1.
Vernand Morency: I hope you planned better than having to flip a coin on who to start week 1 with Morency being part of the equation.
The Pack have a rough schedule to start…PHI, @NYG, SD, @MN, CHI, WASH…I don’t see where their running game should flourish.
Philly will play @GB, then WASH, DET, @NYG before they get their bye week. Should be smooth sailing for Westy as long as McNabb is under center.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Willie Parker: Is he going to get any carries in this new Run n Gun the Steelers are going to play? I kid of course but I have to think the style will be different than what Cowher did. He is a must start most weeks anyway so you won’t give this a 2nd thought week 1. The OL is pretty solid for Pittsburgh even with the influx and outflux of players this off season.
The Steelers play @Cle, BUFF, SF, @AZ, SEA…count me in as a guy that might like Parker as an early season leader for RB.
Jamal Lewis: I like him but I wouldn’t expect him to light up Pitt in week 1. The OL is much improved, IMO. With games against CIN, @Oak, BALT, @NE, then MIAMI…it may be rough for awhile in Cleveland. Still think those that get Lewis at an acceptable draft spot will have a nice RB3 steal for the season. People are quick to write him off, use that to your advantage.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
???: Who knows who is starting for TN right now. LenDale White? Chris Brown? Rookie Chris Henry??? We just do not know enough to make a real decision here. I would avoid all TN RB at this point. And playing JAX in week 1 doesn’t help.
MJD: Should pick up where he left off last year except I think his TD will slide down a little bit. Still a very nice flex play but he can be counted on to start as an RB1 in a lot of leagues. He runs behind a solid interior OL with Meester at Center and Guards Manuwai and Naeole. Tony Pashos comes in from Baltimore and that should not be overlooked.
Fred Taylor: Would want to let him sit if I could for right now. What his upside at this point?
Jax has a very nice schedule, let’s take a look. They don’t even leave for the road till week3 and then they get a bye week right after. TEN, ATL, @Den, BYE, @KC, HOU, INDY, @TB, @NO, @TN(3 weeks in a row on the road but…), SD, BUFF, @Indy…this is a very nice schedule IMO.
Chicago at San Diego: Get your popcorn ready for this one. A definite 5 star match up week 1.
Cedric Benson: Might very well have a great season but it won’t be easy against SD in week 1. The Chargers are going to want to beat on someone after they let it slip away last year against NE. The Bears’ OL is one of the better units in the NFL but this affair will likely be low scoring…somewhere in the 17-14 range. I don’t see any of the RB really having career days here.
LT: Can we just say LT at this point instead of LT2? He will do fine and rack 100 yds and a score but this will not be one of those 200 yd, 4 TD performances by any stretch of your wild Charger imagination. I can hear the owners coming into the Shark Pool now to gripe about how they lost by a couple of points and LT didn’t go nuclear…the humanity of it all.
Hopefully Benson is your RB2. I wouldn’t worry about the schedule a whole lot. I do think though that SD is going to have a tougher time this season and they are going to miss ole Marty on the sidelines. The schedule is not easy, you can go look at it as its subjective but don’t be shocked if LT is maybe 100 points under what he did last season…which is still really good but I can hear the bellyaching already.
Detroit at Oakland
Kevin Jones: Will he be ready for the start of the season?
Tatum Bell: Is Kevin Jones going to be starting ahead of him week 1?
Let me talk about Detroit for a minute. If Calvin Johnson has a lengthy holdout and misses a couple of preseason games that he definitely needs to grasp Mike Martz’s offense…then I see Detroit coming out of the box a lot slower than I had originally hoped for them earlier this off season. My biggest problem with the Lions though is their OL. There is a reason they stink it up year in and year out. They have a pretty solid QB, good WR even without Calvin Johnson, a pretty solid RB…what is the missing element? The Offensive Line!!! Remember when Goldie Wilson runs up on Biff after he crashes into the manure in Back to the Future? Same face I make when I look at Detroit and that OL. This might be the biggest tease since Geraldo tried to unearth Al Capone’s vault. It doesn’t matter who is starting for the Lions at RB or who they play if they can’t block. And did I mention how bad their defense could potentially be? Hard to run the ball when you are down 21-0 due to a swiss cheese secondary.
Dominic Rhodes: Suspended 1st 4 games of the season.
LaMont Jordan: Start him…Rhodes is out. If Jordan is healthy and recovered form his injuries of a year ago you start him. Detroit’s run defense isn’t half bad but at home I like Jordan to land in the top half of starting RB in week 1. The OL is not great but this is a decent match up for them. I wouldn’t start Jordan every week but he has little competition for the 1st 4 weeks of the season so plug him in as your RB2.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
“Cadillac” Williams: I love him in week 1. Seattle has taken steps backwards since they played Pitt in the Super Bowl 18 months ago. I think TB will be much better on offense with their QB situation settled. Their OL is vastly improved over last year…look for a lot of progress from Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, and Dan Buenning.
And look at the Bucs schedule early…@Sea, NO, STL, @Car, @Indy, TEN, @Det, JAX, AZ…and then a bye week, they have some good match ups in there.
Shaun Alexander: As long as he is healthy there is no question you start the guy. His OL is not what it once was but Shaun is still an RB1 by almost all standards right now. IN PPR leagues he might be downgraded more than any other format.
NY Giants at Dallas: And Sunday Night Football begins!
Brandon Jacobs/Reuben Droughns: You’re a braver man than I if you start one of these two in week 1. Dallas is pretty good against the run to begin with but now you might see a split in carries here as well. I would pass on this for right now. In fact I don’t like the Giants in general to be much of a factor this year.
Julius Jones: I think it’s his job to lose. We will see a rotation but JJ should get about 15-20 carries a game IMO. The OL is improved here as well. MB III’s TD last season really pumped up his stats.
MB III: My best guess and that’s all it is right now is that he will be used a lot like Betts in Washington…maybe get his own series about a third of the time. I don’t think he is a shoe in at the goal line every time down either. Wade Phillips history doesn’t indicate that he likes a 2 back system or rotation.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A double header on MNF…AWESOME!!!
Willis McGahee: Certainly going to be started by anyone that drafts him. I think McGahee will see a lot of success in Baltimore. Yes the OL is not super but he has a wicked defense behind him that will make for short fields where he can run downhill more. McGahee is a guy you should be trying to figure out where you can safely grab him and possibly milk RB1 stats out of your RB2 position.
Rudi Johnson: Like this thread, he is running out of gas IMO. He has taken a lot of hits the past 3-4 years, maybe not in week 1, but I could see Rudi being a guy that could start developing problems this year in the form of nagging injuries. You can’t predict them but his style of running leads to them happening. He has a decent OL in front of him but it also took some hits in the off season with the departure of Steinbach.
Arizona at San Fran: This is the 2nd half of MNF? And while I am on this topic, look at some of these games they are pumping out on MNF…TN at NO, Dal at Buf, NYG at ATL, GB at Denver, SF at Sea, TN at Den, Miami at Pitt, while on SNF we see games like SD at NE, Dal at CHI, Pitt at DEN, just seems like SNF is better in all areas including the games themselves.
Edge: Will be interesting to see what the new coach from Pitt does with him. The OL is pretty bad right now but they might play with a little more passion under Russ Grimm now.
Frank Gore: Won’t be as good as he was in 2006. Oh of course you will start him a lot but here is another RB I can hear the bellyaching off in the distance already.
Chime in, sound off, do something but don’t just sit there and wait for the other shoe to drop…get active NOW!!!
New Orleans at Indianapolis: This is going to be a prime match up for both of these clubs as they have solid OL and passing games that should open up plenty of running room underneath for Addai, Bush, and McAllister.
Reggie Bush: The Saints got Jahri Evans in the 4th round out of Bloomsburg College…sounds like a department store league of sorts. Talk about a steal! The problem for the Saints is they are pretty mediocre in short yardage and RT John Stinchcomb IMO is one of the worst starting RT in the league when it comes to run blocking. Of course you are going to start Bush as Indy is still a team that will likely give up yards on the ground…they lost Cato June for better or worse, I personally liked him but understand why Colts fans felt he was a possible liability at times.
Deuce McAllister: I would be a little leery of starting this guy in week 1. I would like to see if they are going to give him 15+ carries a game before I start playing him every week. Bush is in year 2 and I expect an expanded role for him. Certainly he eats up a lot of the screens and passes out of the backfield. Deuce is one of those players that could end up in the box scores with 60 yds and 2 TD or 40 yds and no TD…I would say he is a risky play in week 1. The Saints are not going to be running the clock out on Indy in their building, I assure you.
New Orleans will go on the road back to back to open the season before playing the Titans at home and then an early season bye week. Going on the road to open the season back to back is no fun. But the Saints have a solid offense and while an expectation to duplicate what they did last year may be asking a lot, they should still do well for their owners.
Joseph Addai: Of course you start him but let’s talk about the OL. Tarik Glenn has retired so trading up to get Tony Ugoh in the draft was pretty smart…he may be starting sooner rather than later with Glenn’s retirement. Jeff Saturday is a two time Pro bowler the last couple of seasons and he is the glue in the middle of the OL with Jake Scott and Ryan Lilja on both sides of him. They make a solid interior that rarely faces an 8 man front with you know who lining up under center. Addai should have a great season.
After opening against NO, the Colts get 10 days off and then go back to back on the road @Ten, and @Hou…they should be fine. Then it is home to play Denver and Tampa Bay. You don’t think about the schedule too much when you are starting players on Peyton Manning’s team.
Atlanta at Minnesota: I can tell you now that the Falcons are heading for a likely double digit loss season…maybe worse.
Warrick Dunn: Will he be on the team? Likely he will but he is out till almost the opener and Jerious Norwood is going to get plenty of action in the preseason. Still, as long as Dunn can play he will see the ball, assuming he is not pushed off the team. I don’t know why I keep bringing it up but he seems like a candidate for that to happen since the Falcons are going nowhere…but maybe not just because of the fan reaction to it.
The Falcons’ OL is revamping a bit. Justin Blalock played Tackle in college but is expected to start at Guard this year for Atlanta. How will Gandy and Weiner at Tackle adjust to Joey Harrington under center? Will the running lanes still be there as theyw ere when Vick was under center. Vick being out will not help the running game for the Falcons, scouts’ honor.
Jerious Norwood: Huge gamble to think you can start him in week 1. With Vick out you can toss that incredible ypc average he had last season right out the window. I know Norwood owners are going to be out for blood when I write this but his value and especially in dynasty leagues takes a huge hit with Vick out. Look at Dunn in TB and when he went to Atlanta…his numbers got better with Vick under center.
Update 9/1: Just wanted to add that while most of the Shark Pool knows about Norwood...most of the guppy leagues I have taken part in this weekend he is a complete mystery to folks. I got him in the 9th and 10th round of a couple of drafts this wekend. if you play in leagues where you know nobody else is posting on these MB...don't waste a high pick o this guy. I am not real optimistic about him this season but I readily scooped him up as my RB4 in leagues this weekend.
And did I mention the Viking gave up about 60 yards on the ground per game last season…pass on the Falcons week 1. After getting mauled in Minnesota week 1 they get to take off Jax the next week…another tough run defense and then they get treated to Carolina at home…do yourself a favor in redraft leagues and let the Falcons’ RBs slide slide slide to another team.
Chester Taylor: I doubt he is going to be the starter for more than a minute but he did log 1,200 yds on the ground…I think the next guy I mention is likely to have his coming out party very early in the season…in fact I expect the next guy we talk about to kick the door down, open up a can of “get the (expletive) out of my way”, and then leave a hole the size of a Navy Destroyer on his way out the back of the Metrodome.
Before we salivate over Adrian Peterson, let’s have a look at the OL here. McKinnie and Hutch make one of the most expensive left sides in the NFL. Expect the MN RB to run between the A gap of Birk/Hutch and the B Gap of Hutch/McKinnie as well as Off Tackle Left as many times as they can get away with calling it all season long. And while I think Tavaris Jackson has limited upside as an NFL Qb, he really doesn’t have to worry about his blindside much when he drops back…so maybe he can keep the defense honest enough to keep the ground game moving for the Vikes. If you can run the ball and stop the run you are going to win games and I expect the Vikings to make a push for at least the wildcard this season.
Update 9/1: Definitely going to see some action this seson...might be a total split week 1.
Adrian Peterson: Obviously keep an eye on him in training camp but they drafted him #7 with Chester Taylor already on their roster…what are the odds he is going to be watching and learning form the sidelines? Nill! I would give him a green light and especially against a Falcons’ team that will resemble Rocky when he was beaten in 3 rounds by Clubber Lang for most of the year…”Mickey”…”Michael”.
After feasting on the Falcons, Minnesota get to play Detroit, KC, and GB before they have a bye week…Peterson might have 500 yds in his 1st 4 games. “Cadillac” might have his record broken quickly this season.
Denver at Buffalo:
Travis Henry: Will see plenty of action and will be given every opp to have a 1,500 yd rushing season. The Broncos’ OL is declining for sure. Nalen is 36 and Lepsis coming off an ACL tear which forced him to miss most of last season is 33. The development of the Denver passing game will keep teams honest and open up lanes for Henry. Oh yeah, and the Buffalo defense has bottom 5 potential this season so definitely start him.
Mike Bell: You are kidding, right? If you are one of those people that think Mike Bell is going to cause headaches for Travis Henry owners, you obviously have not being paying any attention to the off season.
Marshawn Lynch: I wouldn’t expect him to post great numbers right away but he will be the starter here, no doubt. Put away those Anthony Thomas pom poms right now.
Update 9/1: Lynch has had a terrible preseason.
After Buff, Denver will see OAK, and JAX at home, @Indy, and then SD at home…not a super easy schedule but I do like their 2 opening games a lot.
Denver, @Pitt, @NE, NYJ, DALLAS…that is what Buffalo opens with. DO not think you can start Lynch as your RB1 and have a great year this season. He is going to have to fall quite a bit for me to want him this season.
Kansas City at Houston:
Larry Johnson: This is going to get ugly. There isn’t much incentive for him to report on time or really want to play for a team that is going nowhere this year. His OL is not as bad as some make out to seem. He runs very well between the Tackles so his interior of the OL is actually pretty strong with LG Brian Waters who is probably a top5 Guard. Will Shield being gone however is not good. Wiegmann will suffer some at Center because of this. Bottom line here is LJ could miss a lot of time during the season with a bitter holdout. He wants somewhere in the $25 million guaranteed range…Chiefs want to give him about $13 million so they are miles apart.
Update 9/1: I have some tempered enthusiasm...he will get the ball a lot but I don't see how he is going to be able to post 15-20 TD this season.
Michael Bennett: If LJ holds out a long time, you might just see Bennett on the field, however that isn’t a good thing and here is why.
After the Chiefs play an improved and surging Houston team that will beat them in week 1. They then have to take on...YOU IN THE BACK…YES YOU…PAY ATTENTION! They then have to take on Chicago on the road, MN, @SD, and then JAX…now these are some of the hardest run defenses in the league. Where are the Chiefs who lost their starting QB in the off season which I haven’t even addressed…where is this running game going to thrive? Season gets better later so let someone else take the Chiefs, and when that owner is struggling and the Chiefs get into friendlier water, you swoop in and make the trade for LJ, assuming he is playing at that point.
Ahman Green: Start him. He should see about 15-20 touches a game and I expect Houston to score more points this season and have some shorter fields set up by an improved defense that now has a legitimate DL in place to take pressure of the secondary and also create holes for the LB to get in and make tackles. Green will make an excellent RB2 this season. I PPR leagues he will play almost like an RB1.
They play KC, @Car, then INDY, @Atl, Miami…the schedule looks pretty good early.
Miami at Washington:
Ronnie Brown: Will get plenty of chances but I see the drafting of Lorenzo Booker as a sign that Miami feels Brown should not be an every down back. Be careful where you draft him in redraft leagues. The Dolphins OL is going thru some growing pains. Samson Setele should start right away at Center, Liwienski and Rex Hadnot are better run blockers than they are at pass protecting. As long as Trent Green is upright he will keep defenses honest and there should be some running lanes for Brown.
The Skins were terrible at stopping the run last season…what’s changed? Not sure much has.
Clinton Portis: Will make owners happy in week 1. Solid OL to run behind. I think LAdell Betts will actually help him make it thru the season not hinder him. Portis is a nice late 1st early 2nd round sleeper of sorts. I am not excited about his QB situation but could Campbell be any worse than Brunell at this point? The answer is NO!
Ladell Betts: Wait and see what his role will be. My guess is he will likely get on the field for an entire drive about 1 out of 3 times depending on the score and situation.
After being on the road @Wash, Miami will then go home to play DALLAS, @NYJ, OAK, @Hou, @Cleve…a mixed bag of sorts as they try and find some cohesiveness on offense.
Washington will go on to play @Philly, NYG, Bye week, DET, @GB, AZ…as usual they don’t get a lot of easy games but Det, GB, and AZ is a nice 3 week stretch fairly early in the season.
New England at New York Jets
Laurence Maroney: Clearly he will be a play almost every week. I expect NE most weeks to be well ahead going into the late 3rd and early 4th quarter. The Pats have a chance to put together one of the all time great teams this season. They created a dynasty a few years ago but they never get the props of the ’72 Dolphins, ’75 Steelers, ’85 Bears, ’89 49ers, or ’93 Cowboys…but they have a chance to do just that this season. It’s not about Randy Moss but the entire team from top to bottom. They didn’t just go get Moss, but they signed Stallworth and Wes Welker too. They had a great defense but went out and got Adalius Thomas for good measure. Asante Samuel would be nuts to miss out on being part of this team in 2007. Was I supposed to write about Maroney here? Cleary you start him every week as long as he is healthy. I would expect 100 yds a week for him as he will likely be helping the Pats run the clock out in the 2nd half after Brady has unleashed hell on opposing defenses in the 1st half. I am a Miami Dolphins fan but I will likely be watching as much of the NE Patriots as I can this season…they will be that good. And it doesn’t hurt that Maroney has a top 5 maybe even top 2 OL blocking in front of him.
Schedule is a non issue for NE this year…but it isn’t all that hard.
Thomas Jones: Probably not going to light it up on NE in week 1. OL is starting to come together in New York, look for success later on into the season.
NE, @Balt, MIAMI, @Buff, @NYG, PHI, @Cinci, BUFF, WASH…mixed bag here. I think the Jets have their work cut out for them to repeat 2006.
Philly at Green Bay
Brian Westbrook: The Eagles have a very solid OL. Shawn Andrews is thought to be perhaps the league’s best Guard. Westy is a must start almost every week but GB is pretty soft on defense and he should go off in week 1.
Brandon Jackson: No way the offense will be trusted to him in week 1. I see a split with Vernand Morency and Morency might actually be the starter week 1.
Vernand Morency: I hope you planned better than having to flip a coin on who to start week 1 with Morency being part of the equation.
The Pack have a rough schedule to start…PHI, @NYG, SD, @MN, CHI, WASH…I don’t see where their running game should flourish.
Philly will play @GB, then WASH, DET, @NYG before they get their bye week. Should be smooth sailing for Westy as long as McNabb is under center.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Willie Parker: Is he going to get any carries in this new Run n Gun the Steelers are going to play? I kid of course but I have to think the style will be different than what Cowher did. He is a must start most weeks anyway so you won’t give this a 2nd thought week 1. The OL is pretty solid for Pittsburgh even with the influx and outflux of players this off season.
The Steelers play @Cle, BUFF, SF, @AZ, SEA…count me in as a guy that might like Parker as an early season leader for RB.
Jamal Lewis: I like him but I wouldn’t expect him to light up Pitt in week 1. The OL is much improved, IMO. With games against CIN, @Oak, BALT, @NE, then MIAMI…it may be rough for awhile in Cleveland. Still think those that get Lewis at an acceptable draft spot will have a nice RB3 steal for the season. People are quick to write him off, use that to your advantage.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
???: Who knows who is starting for TN right now. LenDale White? Chris Brown? Rookie Chris Henry??? We just do not know enough to make a real decision here. I would avoid all TN RB at this point. And playing JAX in week 1 doesn’t help.
MJD: Should pick up where he left off last year except I think his TD will slide down a little bit. Still a very nice flex play but he can be counted on to start as an RB1 in a lot of leagues. He runs behind a solid interior OL with Meester at Center and Guards Manuwai and Naeole. Tony Pashos comes in from Baltimore and that should not be overlooked.
Fred Taylor: Would want to let him sit if I could for right now. What his upside at this point?
Jax has a very nice schedule, let’s take a look. They don’t even leave for the road till week3 and then they get a bye week right after. TEN, ATL, @Den, BYE, @KC, HOU, INDY, @TB, @NO, @TN(3 weeks in a row on the road but…), SD, BUFF, @Indy…this is a very nice schedule IMO.
Chicago at San Diego: Get your popcorn ready for this one. A definite 5 star match up week 1.
Cedric Benson: Might very well have a great season but it won’t be easy against SD in week 1. The Chargers are going to want to beat on someone after they let it slip away last year against NE. The Bears’ OL is one of the better units in the NFL but this affair will likely be low scoring…somewhere in the 17-14 range. I don’t see any of the RB really having career days here.
LT: Can we just say LT at this point instead of LT2? He will do fine and rack 100 yds and a score but this will not be one of those 200 yd, 4 TD performances by any stretch of your wild Charger imagination. I can hear the owners coming into the Shark Pool now to gripe about how they lost by a couple of points and LT didn’t go nuclear…the humanity of it all.
Hopefully Benson is your RB2. I wouldn’t worry about the schedule a whole lot. I do think though that SD is going to have a tougher time this season and they are going to miss ole Marty on the sidelines. The schedule is not easy, you can go look at it as its subjective but don’t be shocked if LT is maybe 100 points under what he did last season…which is still really good but I can hear the bellyaching already.
Detroit at Oakland
Kevin Jones: Will he be ready for the start of the season?
Tatum Bell: Is Kevin Jones going to be starting ahead of him week 1?
Let me talk about Detroit for a minute. If Calvin Johnson has a lengthy holdout and misses a couple of preseason games that he definitely needs to grasp Mike Martz’s offense…then I see Detroit coming out of the box a lot slower than I had originally hoped for them earlier this off season. My biggest problem with the Lions though is their OL. There is a reason they stink it up year in and year out. They have a pretty solid QB, good WR even without Calvin Johnson, a pretty solid RB…what is the missing element? The Offensive Line!!! Remember when Goldie Wilson runs up on Biff after he crashes into the manure in Back to the Future? Same face I make when I look at Detroit and that OL. This might be the biggest tease since Geraldo tried to unearth Al Capone’s vault. It doesn’t matter who is starting for the Lions at RB or who they play if they can’t block. And did I mention how bad their defense could potentially be? Hard to run the ball when you are down 21-0 due to a swiss cheese secondary.
Dominic Rhodes: Suspended 1st 4 games of the season.
LaMont Jordan: Start him…Rhodes is out. If Jordan is healthy and recovered form his injuries of a year ago you start him. Detroit’s run defense isn’t half bad but at home I like Jordan to land in the top half of starting RB in week 1. The OL is not great but this is a decent match up for them. I wouldn’t start Jordan every week but he has little competition for the 1st 4 weeks of the season so plug him in as your RB2.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
“Cadillac” Williams: I love him in week 1. Seattle has taken steps backwards since they played Pitt in the Super Bowl 18 months ago. I think TB will be much better on offense with their QB situation settled. Their OL is vastly improved over last year…look for a lot of progress from Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood, and Dan Buenning.
And look at the Bucs schedule early…@Sea, NO, STL, @Car, @Indy, TEN, @Det, JAX, AZ…and then a bye week, they have some good match ups in there.
Shaun Alexander: As long as he is healthy there is no question you start the guy. His OL is not what it once was but Shaun is still an RB1 by almost all standards right now. IN PPR leagues he might be downgraded more than any other format.
NY Giants at Dallas: And Sunday Night Football begins!
Brandon Jacobs/Reuben Droughns: You’re a braver man than I if you start one of these two in week 1. Dallas is pretty good against the run to begin with but now you might see a split in carries here as well. I would pass on this for right now. In fact I don’t like the Giants in general to be much of a factor this year.
Julius Jones: I think it’s his job to lose. We will see a rotation but JJ should get about 15-20 carries a game IMO. The OL is improved here as well. MB III’s TD last season really pumped up his stats.
MB III: My best guess and that’s all it is right now is that he will be used a lot like Betts in Washington…maybe get his own series about a third of the time. I don’t think he is a shoe in at the goal line every time down either. Wade Phillips history doesn’t indicate that he likes a 2 back system or rotation.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: A double header on MNF…AWESOME!!!
Willis McGahee: Certainly going to be started by anyone that drafts him. I think McGahee will see a lot of success in Baltimore. Yes the OL is not super but he has a wicked defense behind him that will make for short fields where he can run downhill more. McGahee is a guy you should be trying to figure out where you can safely grab him and possibly milk RB1 stats out of your RB2 position.
Rudi Johnson: Like this thread, he is running out of gas IMO. He has taken a lot of hits the past 3-4 years, maybe not in week 1, but I could see Rudi being a guy that could start developing problems this year in the form of nagging injuries. You can’t predict them but his style of running leads to them happening. He has a decent OL in front of him but it also took some hits in the off season with the departure of Steinbach.
Arizona at San Fran: This is the 2nd half of MNF? And while I am on this topic, look at some of these games they are pumping out on MNF…TN at NO, Dal at Buf, NYG at ATL, GB at Denver, SF at Sea, TN at Den, Miami at Pitt, while on SNF we see games like SD at NE, Dal at CHI, Pitt at DEN, just seems like SNF is better in all areas including the games themselves.
Edge: Will be interesting to see what the new coach from Pitt does with him. The OL is pretty bad right now but they might play with a little more passion under Russ Grimm now.
Frank Gore: Won’t be as good as he was in 2006. Oh of course you will start him a lot but here is another RB I can hear the bellyaching off in the distance already.
Chime in, sound off, do something but don’t just sit there and wait for the other shoe to drop…get active NOW!!!
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(yes, I am aware he's a Lion now).
(yes, I am aware he's a Lion now).BUF: The team has expressed several times this offseason that this will be A RBBC. Unless people think it's a front and the team is stonewalling.WAS: I personally think Portis goes back to being the huge majority ball carrier and Betts goes back to being a reserve and a 3rd down back.NE: If the Pats are as far ahead as indicated, I doubt Maroney will get a ton of work late in the game as they can't risk him getting banged up. If the intent is to ice the game by running out the clock, I would think Morris or the other RBs would be a better option to keep Maroney fresh and healthy.NYJ: I see Washington getting a fair amount of work this year and it won't be Jones all day long.JAX: Taylor is still the starter and MJD still the backup. I've already discussed MJD at length, but I don't see him getting a ton more work as many are supposing.DET: I can't see Kevin Jones suiting up. I would guess he will be on the regular season PUP to start the year.NYG: IMO, there is little confusion here. Jacobs is the starter. He gets the lion's share of work and Droughns gets a series each half to give him a blow. The team has stated that this is the plan.CIN: Rudi has had three straight seasons in the bottom of the top ten. I don't see the wheels coming off, but I don't get to watch CIN very often.NOT DISCUSSED: CAR @ STLCAR: I still see Foster starting the year as the starter no matter how much man love the fantasy football community is giving D Williams.
ps MOP I agree on Gore.
