Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Seems like we have been doing this for several seasons now, and once again we will try and find the best match ups week in and week out. I am often asked how this info really helps as owners cannot pick whoever they want on a week by week basis…I understand that but in most of my leagues I do end up with choices. Some of them are actually which RB do I start because I have 3-4 choices, in dynasty leagues you can have a lot of options including whether you should play an RB or a WR in those flex positions, but you can also use the info to gauge how much risk you want to incur at other positions on your starting roster.
The 1st week I have to be honest, typically I advise playing it close to the vest. Try as we might, sometimes we just won’t know how good or bad certain rush defenses are or the offensive lines opening the holes.
This season, I am inviting someone to come in and write a few game overviews on a week by week basis. I felt it would be a good idea to have a fresh set of eyes on these threads, and also I really like this person’s posts and think they have a lot of merit in the short time he has been a board member, and that is JGalligan who you will see at different times, and likely at least once during the year might have to run the entire thing.
I also want to highlight some things that will help as the season rolls along…
-No matter what you think is going to happen on Sunday, there are no sure things. Just like in poker you can go to the flop with pocket AA every time but it doesn’t mean you’re going to win them all.
-Don’t over think things too much…if you have Lynch and Lewis just start them, no reason to try and make up a story in your head to try and start your RB4 that week.
-Remember that this thread is really a template to try and work off of. MOP does not have all the right answers so if you know more about a game than the rest of us by all means post and share, but be ready to defend that POV with at least a few fictional stats, thanks.
-Always be closing
-Red means I am not optimistic they do well, green means I think they will have a strong game. I don't always color code the superstars because they don't need the hype anyways.
Let’s jump to the games, are you ready for some football!!!
Washington at NY Giants (-3.5) (40.5)
The NY Giants have outscored the Skins 65-25 in the last 3 games they have played in New York. The Giants have a lot of question marks on their DL with a Pro Bowler out for the season and a retired HoF DE as well. The problem is the Skins have not looked real good except for the opening drive in their 1st preseason game.
Clinton Portis: In his 4 games in Giant Stadium, he has avg about 80 total yds and .5 TD over those 4 games. In other words, Portis is fairly average, his biggest game was 22/126/TD last season when the Skins knocked off the Giants 22-10 to help push them into the playoffs. I do think that Washington in theory should be able to open holes against the Giants, however they have looked very pedestrian at best in the pre season. I’m not telling you to not play Portis who you picked in the 1st round but I wouldn’t pencil him in for a huge night either.
Brandon Jacobs: If you were lucky enough to grab Brandon Jacobs at some point in your draft, likely n RB2/3 for your team, I think you are going to be really happy this season as long as he stays on the field. He has looked terrific so far and I honestly see him as a candidate for double digit TD this year. Look at these game logs for Jacobs at home last season…NYJ-20/100/TD, SF-18/107TD, 3/16, DAL-23/95, 1/10, WAS-25/130, 3/30, NE-15/67/TD, 5/44…every game at home he was up over 100 total yds and TD in 60% of those home games. I like Jacobs this week, the Skins are not stopping the run all that well, and I see no reason Jacobs cannot crack the top 12-15 this week.
Ahmad Bradshaw: I would seriously let him sit right now. There will be a time this year and games where he is a good option but I am not expecting him to take the field by storm on Thursday Night.
Final Score: NY Giants 24…Washington 17
Cincinnati at Baltimore (+1.0) (39)
Both teams have a lot of uncertainty as we open the season. The Bengals have an injury riddled and suspended WR stable. Chad Johnson and TJ Housh have been nursing injuries, and Chris Henry, the Steve Howe of the NFL, is suspended once again for 4 games to start the season. The Ravens are trying to figure out who is going to start at QB, and also the health of Willis McGahee is in question, not to mention the retirement of their HoF LT, Johnathon Ogden…they have a lot of problems.
Chris Perry: Here’s the thing…great, wonderful, terrific, he has not only won the starting job but he also made such an impression that the Bengals cut Rudi Johnson. Swell, but I’m not sure I trust the Cincinnati front brass, or Marvin Lewis for that matter when it comes to player evaluations…call me crazy but I just don’t really trust this organization because they simply continue to fail year after year, decade after decade. The Ravens might not be the same defense they were several years ago but they still are not easy to run the ball on…they were top3-5 in rush defense a year ago. Where Perry will earn his stripes will be the out of the backfield(OOTB) receptions he can rack up. I am calling for a mild afternoon, Perry is going to have to prove himself before we start to issue must starts for him.
Kenny Watson: Again, I will not be making recommendations that you start back ups in week 1 of the season but just keep him stashed on your roster.
Willis McGahee: Seems like he is still recovering form his surgery in the pre season. In all likelihood you have not been drafting McGahee in the 1st round of your redrafts. I am sure once he is healthy that there will be plenty of good starts for him, but he is going to take awhile to get on track. I would look other avenues just to be safe in week 1. Monitor the injury report(IR) so you can see what his condition is come Sat/Sun.
Ray Rice: If McGahee cannot go, and if Rice is given the green light to start…some of you in redrafts are thinking I got Rice as my RB4/5, why would I want to start him…there are lots of dynasty owners out there that play in large leagues, and sometimes have as many as 2-3 flex positions to fill, so this actually is pretty important for some of the owners out there. I love Rice, loved him in college, wish I had grabbed him in a few dynasty leagues but I didn’t like the situation he was drafted into. This is the reason you have to look beyond just those types of things, because if Rice starts, he might give the coaching staff something to think about over the next few weeks and could push a split at RB if he were to get on track early. If you play in a large league and Rice is named the starter, I see no reason not to put him in your line up. He will likely touch the ball 20-25 times if he is starting.
Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Baltimore 16
NY Jets at Miami (+3.0) (36.5)
Could the NFL write a better story? Favre is traded by the Pack to NY, then Penny is cut and signs with his former coach in Miami, now the two teams square off in week 1…unbelievable.
Thomas Jones: TJ had a rough year last season in terms of FF points, but I think he is a good bet to do much better this year and has been great value in the 4th-5th round of a lot of drafts leading up to the season. Brett Favre is going to make this offense better, I have little doubt about that, and RBs in Favre’s backfield typically put up really strong numbers. Jones should be thought of as a starter in most line ups this week, although I do think Miami is going to surprise some people. Also, don’t overlook the humidity which has really been kicked up down here in Miami over the past couple of weeks, gonna be a cooker that some players will not be used to…lot of cramping in this game.
Leon Washington: Bench, we have no idea what the role is at this moment for Leon so leave him alone right now.
Ricky Williams: Has been named the starter but I think we all saw what happened to him last season. Now he has had an off season like no other with the instruction of Sporano, Parcells, his OC, I think I want to believe that Rickey(31 yrs old), will be a viable starter but part of my brain says the deck is stacked against him. Now as far as this game is concerned…I’m not high on the Jets defense, not tickled over Gholston, not impressed with them at this moment…so I think Ricky might have a decent game on Sunday, but just because he was named the starter, doesn’t mean he will be a Superback.
Ronnie Brown: The Dolphins are bringing him along slowly from his injury and have a human punching bag in front of him with Ricky Williams. The Dolphins don’t care about Ricky but he’s perfect for right now until Brown proves he can handle a full load which I think he will by maybe week 4 or 5, mid season for sure. I don’t see Ricky starting all season.
Final Score: Miami 20…NY Jets 17
Kansas City at New England (-16.5) (46.5)
The Chiefs get the pleasure of going into Foxboro after the Pats went 18-0 and failed to win the Super Bowl to cap off a perfect season…should be fun for the Chiefs.
Larry Johnson: Don’t let the absence of an OL, QB, and supporting cast on offense keep you from wanting to start LJ. Certainly his schedule gets easier but you have tot hink that Croyle will have very little success in the passing game and that the Pats are going to key in on LJ and try and shut him down. In all likelihood Johnson is not going to have a great game against the Pats. Now I think New England is going to be challenged on defense a lot more this year as they have lost some parts but they still are coached by one of the best defensive minded coaches in the entire history of the league. If you have other options, you might think about LJ…I benched him in week 1 last year but I had a stable of ADP, Rudi, and Lamont Jordan to choose from in week 1.
Laurence Maroney: Your guess will be about as good as mine. I have to think the Pats have the upper hand in the trenches even with Dorsey coming in at DT for the Chiefs. What exactly Maroney will do and what his role is in 2008, just remains to be seen. If you have him, certainly think about starting him, but last year he was so hit and miss.
Jordan/Morris: I would just sit these guys as they were likely drafted for bye week fill ins and just allow yourself to gather info and see what/who is going to have what role. Right now, it simply is a guessing game and one I would just leave alone till we know more. But I think the pats are going to win handily so it is likely that they will some action, maybe even siginificant in the 3rd and 4th quarter this week.
Final Score: New England 35…Kansas City 13
Houston at Pittsburgh (-6.5) (43.5)
I want to start this game by basically telling you that if you have to start a Houston RB in week 1…something went terribly wrong at your draft. Who the heck knows what they are going to try and do on Sunday…I do think they will rely heavily on their passing game as they are just too banged up right now and they have a rookie that many think cannot take the NFL grind/pounding so you probably are going to see a rotation of sorts at RB.
Ahman Green/Chris Taylor : I would just bench them in week 1 till we see the health and game plan of the rushing attack.
Steve Slaton: Just keep an eye on him, he might even be available on the WW in some leagues. Slaton is going to get touches at least early on in the season, he has looked good at times in preseason so I expect him to see some action. If you play in PPR leagues, large dynasty leagues…I could almost see people wanting to get him out there but I would likely let him ride the bench for now.
Willie Parker: With the fumbles that Mendy had over the past few weeks, I fully expect Parker to get a good amount of carries, especially early in the season. I am on board with Mendy getting touches near the goal line but if he fumbles, he might not even get those as much we anticipated. Houston has a decent defense and have really had some nice drafts over the past few years, that said they are still far from a world beater and you have to think even a depleted OL in Pitt will be able to open holes.
Rashard Mendenhall: You cannot be eager to start this guy in week 1. Allow him a couple of weeks at least to get into the flow of the regular season. I expect him to progress and come on as the season rolls along, but right now he is a very weak start with the other choices you should have on the roster.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24…Houston 20
Jacksonville at Tennessee (+3.0) (36.5)
This game has a few story lines going on in it. First of all the OL for Jax has sustained a few injuries in the preseason and they may have some challenges against the always stout DL of the Tennessee Titans. There are reasons I can’t get into in this thread for why Jax will win this game on Sunday, but I don’t expect them to run over Tennessee as they just are not healthy enough right now to do so. Garrard would be a nice sneaky play but he has no healthy weapons right now at WR, so I don’t like that move either.
Fred Taylor: Unless you drafted him as your RB2 and you must start 2 in a 12+ team league…I sit him this week. In his last 3 starts in TN, he has 6/-8(not a typo), 37 yds, 45/TD…he doesn’t mass produce against the Titans and I think his particular running style in the here and now, doesn’t match up so well with the Titans.
MJD: In PPR leagues he is always a start, especially if you flex positions. Want to know his stats in 2006 and 2007 on the road in Tenn? 25-98/3-47/TD, and 19-101/3-28/TD…so 150/TD and 130/TD in the two games…pretty good. I’m not usually a stat trend guy, I try to approach each game on its own but it never hurts when division rivalries square off to check the games over the past 3-5 years if players have been in the league that long.
LenDale White: Entering his 3rd year, I still expect him to have a decent role on the team especially early on in the season while Chris Johnson adjusts to the NFL. White has not played well against Jacksonville either. In 2 games last year he had 73 total yds and 8 carries for 12 yds in the 2nd go around. There has to be better options on your roster, sorry.
Chris Johnson: Most should know I am super high on this guy right now…love the mix of raw speed and vision, he has a great knack for taking away the angles for DBs to catch him so once he breaks into the secondary, he has a better than average chance of turning on the jets and going all the way. He tends to score his TD form outside the 10-20 yard line. I think there will be plenty of weeks to start Flash but why push it week 1? This will be a tough game for the Titans to win and I don’t expect their offense to have a lot of good fortune on Sunday.
Final Score: Jacksonville 17…Tennessee 10
Detroit at Atlanta (+3.0) (41.0)…should the Lions be favored on the road against anyone?
2 very questionable OL for these teams, however they both have major issues on the DL which I am going to get into as we break down the match ups here.
Kevin Smith: Seems to have won the starting role. There is a lot of rumor that Rudi Johnson might land here, but let’s deal with what we know. Smith has looked OK in the preseason, and he has run with the 1st team for most of camp…what are the odds a guy will be signed form the street and take over at RB? Not that high IMO. The Falcons have a lot of issues and I think Smith will have a decent 1st game as a rookie…I’m not thrilled with his overall outlook for the season but in week 1, I could see him landing in the top20 if things fall right on Sunday.
Tatum Bell: I wouldn’t even list him but Kevin Smith was not a high 1st round pick so it stands to reason he is going to be brought along somewhat slowly. Bell should be on your bench at best right now.
Michael Turner: I expect good things in week 1 form him even with a bad OL. The Lions lost Shaun Rodgers and he was the only thing keeping them from a decent rush defense and a terrible one. I think Detroit will have a major problem stopping the run this year, and when teams figure that out which won’t take long…it doesn’t bode well for Detroit Skill position players if they are on the sideline all the time. Turner has a great macth up and I think he might make a top10 appearance in week 1.
Jerious Norwood: Eager to see how they work him in, but for now he remains a reserve player in almost all leagues.
Final Score: Atlanta 21…Detroit 20
Seattle at Buffalo (+1.0) (39.5)
MoMo/JJ: Seattle is in complete disarray and quite frankly I expect them to get run out of the building on Sunday so I wouldn’t expect a lot of great things form their running game right now. They have no WR outside of Burleson, no TE, and Buffalo has a vastly improved defense. The line will catch up with Seattle, especially on the road away from their comfy nest. I bench them all right now for Seattle.
Marshawn Lynch : Even without Peters(LT), who is holding out, I still think Lynch should do well this week. I have big expectations for Lynch this year, and Seattle ill be miserable come the 2nd half. They might put up a good fight in the 1st, but once they see they have no offense to count on, they are going to fold in the 2nd. They have some great speedy LB to catch Lynch but this is not the Viking rush defense so don’t confuse the two of them. Start Lynch and shave about 25-30 yards off his total with Peters out…I still think he scores, maybe even twice on Sunday.
Final Score: Buffalo 26…Seattle 13
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5) (43.0)
I want to start this game capsule by talking about the Saints and how these Hurricanes have had an impact on them and their plight. I have two thoughts in them right now…the first is that as soon as the projected path for Gustav was announced…and we are talking about when it was much more spread out(the cone), they were on the 1st flight out of there. I’m not sure it was a good thing in terms of PR, but in another sense I thought it was smart because they basically are taking the approach of no excuses…but the reality is that while other teams are in the comfy confines of home, these guys are in Indianapolis presumably at a nice hotel but it’s like being on the road. Will this game be played in New Orleans? Odds are that Gustav is long gone by next Sunday but there is another storm out there that has been mentioned as possibly finding its way into the Gulf and that could have an impact as well. My heart and thoughts go out to all the folks along the Gulf, it seems like you have had more than your fair share of these over the past few years.
Earnest Graham : New Orleans is still not that tough on defense so I think teams should still have success. Davin Joseph(RG), a key part of the Bucs rushing game is out for awhile so it will be a little tougher for the Bucs on offense. Graham should have a decent day and put up respectable numbers in the opener…I’m not that high on him overall for the season but he should fare well on Sunday.
Warrick Dunn: I think he will surprise just how much he will be used this season but for now he is probably best left on the bench.
Reggie Bush: Always a threat OOTB, and I can’t imagine this changing much although if he continues to avg only 5ypc thru the air I would look for a decrease at some point in the number of touches for Bush. He is not going to get more than about 12-15 carries tops in most games this year.
Deuce McAllister: Looked great the other night. The guy has the heart of a lion so I’m sure he will give it 100%, and as long as he is healthy I would expect to see him get around 15 carries a game. I might not trot him out in week 1 till I see the role he plays but I imagine it will be similar to years past. And he can catch the ball when called upon as well.
Final Score: New Orleans 24…Tampa Bay 20
St Louis at Philadelphia (-7.0) (44.5)
I like Philly in this game a lot.
Steven Jackson: Hmmmm, start him? Of course you are going to start him…he is the whole team now. They sure paid him like he is, and last season I said there was no way he would catch 80+ balls again…well that was last year and his injury certainly made that an easy collect on the bet, however this year I can’t imagine how SJax won’t catch 60-70+ balls, in fact as long as he is healthy he is a top3-5 back…too many touches to not hit the numbers, sorry for those that passed on him at the 1.03 and beyond. He’ll find the end zone at some point on Sunday.
Brian Westbrook: Hmmmm, start him too? Again, this is one of those backs that you would almost never think of not starting unless he is injured. Westy should have a big game on Sunday, lot of questions at WR so I look for Westbrook to have probably 8-10 catches in this game, another 12-15 carries. If the Eagles end up running away with this game, you could see a little less of him in the 2nd half.
Buckhalter/Booker: Keep an eye on these 2 to see if either is used more than the other as the back up. I do expect Westbrook to miss some time this season, and when he does I feel one of these two will produce very well.
Final Score: Philadelphia 27…St Louis 17, and I don’t think it will even be that close
Dallas at Cleveland (+4.0) (49)
If you believe Vegas, this will be one of the higher scoring affairs of the day. Top skill position players across the board, should be very entertaining for fans.
Marion Barber III : Hopefully you took him in your redrafts because he is quickly becoming a safe harbor in the 1st round for a lot of owners. I don’t think you can lose if you took him anywhere in the 1st round. Start him with confidence.
Felix Jones: I haven’t seen a lot of him in the preseason and I don’t think he is going to play a large role in the 1st game of the season. This is on the road, and even though Dallas is favored in the football game, don’t think for a second they can just walk off the bus and win the game. I don’t expect that they will ask Felix to do a whole lot in the 1st game, better to let him get warm back in Dallas the next week.
Jamal Lewis: Another RB that I think is relatively a safe choice and will get you some nice points week in and week out. He has one of the best OL in football right now so I expect him to play well on Sunday, no reason to leave him out of your line up.
Final Score: Dallas 31…Cleveland 28
Carolina at San Diego (-9.5) (42.5)
DeAngelo Williams: Stewart, the 1st word I use to describe his outlook and I started it off with Stewart…and the reason is I think we all are a little in the dark as to the exact roles we are going to see. I do think DeAngelo will take the field as the starter but I expect both back to be used a lot. The problem is that San Diego is pretty good on defense and I can’t imagine a scenario where both of these backs are going to have starter type games in week 1. I imagine some of you might have to start DWill this week, but again I don’t see huge numbers for the Carolina ground game, not to mention that Steve Smith is not in the line up and they have few healthy WR right now.
Johnathon Stewart: The 3rd game against Washington in the preseason sent out an awful loud THUD! That sound was Stewart running like a freight train thru that defense…granted it was preseason and I don’t think the Skins are very good at stopping the run, but I do feel he is coming along well after the toe surgery and must be close to full speed if he was playing in that game.
LaDainian Tomlinson: Anyone lucky enough to have him on a roster can just bite me.
Final Score: San Diego 27…Carolina 14
Arizona at San Francisco (-3.0) (41.5)
Edge: Start him with confidence, even with Hightower’s emergence in the preseason James will still be given the majority of the touches. I am being told to not sleep on the SF rush defense, but I’ll believe it when I see it. For right now I wouldn’t keep a guy out of my starting line up because he is facing the big bad 49ers rush defense.
Frank Gore: All systems are go. While I do think his OL presents a challenge, his talent combined with Mike Martz should make for a fun ride for FF owners.
Final Score: Arizona 21…San Fran 20
Chicago at Indianapolis (-9.5) (44.5)
I’m yawning as I am writing this…might not be a good sign for this game on Sunday Night.
Cedric Benson: Just checking to make sure you’re still here.
Matt Forte: I will say this again but the Chicago Bears have perhaps one of the worst OL in the NFL…they are old, slow, and not that powerful either. Now the Colts are not a great rush defense but they seem to be able to come up with plays when they need them…in other words they might allow 5 yds a rush but when it is 3rd and 2, they somehow manage to stop the other team…just something I notice about them. Forte is an unkwown and just because he is starting does not make him a great option. I would do a wait and see with him for a week or two.
Kevin Jones: Forget about it for right now.
Joseph Addai: I don’t think he will have a great night on the ground, but I do expect him to be active in the short passing game. 100 total yds are not out of the question for him.
Final Score: Indianapolis 24…Chicago 14
Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5) (38.5)
What a treat for the MNF kick off, this will be one of the games I most want to watch. So many good skill position players all the way around in this game, but new/young QBs under center…we’ll see how this shakes out but it ought to be fun to watch while I am sitting at the Wynn in Vegas.
Adrian Peterson: Start/Not Start isn’t the issue ever with him, it’s just a matter of what we can expect. Peterson can go off for 200 yards any week but the Packers defense is pretty decent and might present a few problems for an OL missing McKinnie…normally that would cripple a passing game but the Vikes don’t throw the ball so they will simply run between the LG and Center or the right side of the line. I’m sure on MNF, Peterson is going to want to showcase his skills for the entire world to see, not everyone knows him as well as the FF community.
Chester Taylor: No reason to have him in your line up this week I would think.
Ryan Grant : You will want to monitor the health of him this week, but that said he likely will struggle against the #1 rush defense in the NFL over the past 2 years running. The Williams boys clog up the middle and I don’t see how the packers will move the ball on the ground…this is a game where Rodgers, Jennings, and Driver factor greatly into the play book this week…plus Clifton gets a new gift this year of having to block Jared Allen flying off the corner so I expect the pack to really struggle on the ground in this game.
Final Score: Minnesota 20…Green Bay 17
Denver at Oakland (+3.0) (41.5)
Not as exciting as the 1st game but it will be fun to see the career start for McFadden, and also to see how Cutler performs now that he is healthy again.
Selvin Young: Should do well, won’t get all the carries as Hall will see action but I anticipate at least 100 total yds from him.
Andre Hall: He is going to carry some of the load, just how much we won’t know till after the 1st real full game of the season. Let him relax on your bench for now.
Darren McFadden: I am excited to see him take the field but I also think you must temper enthusiasm for him somewhat. He will be splitting time with Fargas for awhile, and I think everyone should be happy if DMC gets around 15 touches a game initially…that would be a good sign.
Justin Fargas: In most redraft leagues this guy should have been about your RB4, so I doubt there is any reason you need to push him out there right now.
Final Score: Denver 23…Oakland 20
This thread lives and dies with the feedback and insight of all of you. Please post any thoughts you have but remember we don't do WDIS which is not an abreviation for Disney World in here...feel free to go over your RB on your roster and why you are playing a guy over another, that is good feedback and the kind of stuff we can all learn from.
Good luck everyone!!!
The 1st week I have to be honest, typically I advise playing it close to the vest. Try as we might, sometimes we just won’t know how good or bad certain rush defenses are or the offensive lines opening the holes.
This season, I am inviting someone to come in and write a few game overviews on a week by week basis. I felt it would be a good idea to have a fresh set of eyes on these threads, and also I really like this person’s posts and think they have a lot of merit in the short time he has been a board member, and that is JGalligan who you will see at different times, and likely at least once during the year might have to run the entire thing.
I also want to highlight some things that will help as the season rolls along…
-No matter what you think is going to happen on Sunday, there are no sure things. Just like in poker you can go to the flop with pocket AA every time but it doesn’t mean you’re going to win them all.
-Don’t over think things too much…if you have Lynch and Lewis just start them, no reason to try and make up a story in your head to try and start your RB4 that week.
-Remember that this thread is really a template to try and work off of. MOP does not have all the right answers so if you know more about a game than the rest of us by all means post and share, but be ready to defend that POV with at least a few fictional stats, thanks.
-Always be closing
-Red means I am not optimistic they do well, green means I think they will have a strong game. I don't always color code the superstars because they don't need the hype anyways.
Let’s jump to the games, are you ready for some football!!!
Washington at NY Giants (-3.5) (40.5)
The NY Giants have outscored the Skins 65-25 in the last 3 games they have played in New York. The Giants have a lot of question marks on their DL with a Pro Bowler out for the season and a retired HoF DE as well. The problem is the Skins have not looked real good except for the opening drive in their 1st preseason game.
Clinton Portis: In his 4 games in Giant Stadium, he has avg about 80 total yds and .5 TD over those 4 games. In other words, Portis is fairly average, his biggest game was 22/126/TD last season when the Skins knocked off the Giants 22-10 to help push them into the playoffs. I do think that Washington in theory should be able to open holes against the Giants, however they have looked very pedestrian at best in the pre season. I’m not telling you to not play Portis who you picked in the 1st round but I wouldn’t pencil him in for a huge night either.
Brandon Jacobs: If you were lucky enough to grab Brandon Jacobs at some point in your draft, likely n RB2/3 for your team, I think you are going to be really happy this season as long as he stays on the field. He has looked terrific so far and I honestly see him as a candidate for double digit TD this year. Look at these game logs for Jacobs at home last season…NYJ-20/100/TD, SF-18/107TD, 3/16, DAL-23/95, 1/10, WAS-25/130, 3/30, NE-15/67/TD, 5/44…every game at home he was up over 100 total yds and TD in 60% of those home games. I like Jacobs this week, the Skins are not stopping the run all that well, and I see no reason Jacobs cannot crack the top 12-15 this week.
Ahmad Bradshaw: I would seriously let him sit right now. There will be a time this year and games where he is a good option but I am not expecting him to take the field by storm on Thursday Night.
Final Score: NY Giants 24…Washington 17
Cincinnati at Baltimore (+1.0) (39)
Both teams have a lot of uncertainty as we open the season. The Bengals have an injury riddled and suspended WR stable. Chad Johnson and TJ Housh have been nursing injuries, and Chris Henry, the Steve Howe of the NFL, is suspended once again for 4 games to start the season. The Ravens are trying to figure out who is going to start at QB, and also the health of Willis McGahee is in question, not to mention the retirement of their HoF LT, Johnathon Ogden…they have a lot of problems.
Chris Perry: Here’s the thing…great, wonderful, terrific, he has not only won the starting job but he also made such an impression that the Bengals cut Rudi Johnson. Swell, but I’m not sure I trust the Cincinnati front brass, or Marvin Lewis for that matter when it comes to player evaluations…call me crazy but I just don’t really trust this organization because they simply continue to fail year after year, decade after decade. The Ravens might not be the same defense they were several years ago but they still are not easy to run the ball on…they were top3-5 in rush defense a year ago. Where Perry will earn his stripes will be the out of the backfield(OOTB) receptions he can rack up. I am calling for a mild afternoon, Perry is going to have to prove himself before we start to issue must starts for him.
Kenny Watson: Again, I will not be making recommendations that you start back ups in week 1 of the season but just keep him stashed on your roster.
Willis McGahee: Seems like he is still recovering form his surgery in the pre season. In all likelihood you have not been drafting McGahee in the 1st round of your redrafts. I am sure once he is healthy that there will be plenty of good starts for him, but he is going to take awhile to get on track. I would look other avenues just to be safe in week 1. Monitor the injury report(IR) so you can see what his condition is come Sat/Sun.
Ray Rice: If McGahee cannot go, and if Rice is given the green light to start…some of you in redrafts are thinking I got Rice as my RB4/5, why would I want to start him…there are lots of dynasty owners out there that play in large leagues, and sometimes have as many as 2-3 flex positions to fill, so this actually is pretty important for some of the owners out there. I love Rice, loved him in college, wish I had grabbed him in a few dynasty leagues but I didn’t like the situation he was drafted into. This is the reason you have to look beyond just those types of things, because if Rice starts, he might give the coaching staff something to think about over the next few weeks and could push a split at RB if he were to get on track early. If you play in a large league and Rice is named the starter, I see no reason not to put him in your line up. He will likely touch the ball 20-25 times if he is starting.
Final Score: Cincinnati 23…Baltimore 16
NY Jets at Miami (+3.0) (36.5)
Could the NFL write a better story? Favre is traded by the Pack to NY, then Penny is cut and signs with his former coach in Miami, now the two teams square off in week 1…unbelievable.
Thomas Jones: TJ had a rough year last season in terms of FF points, but I think he is a good bet to do much better this year and has been great value in the 4th-5th round of a lot of drafts leading up to the season. Brett Favre is going to make this offense better, I have little doubt about that, and RBs in Favre’s backfield typically put up really strong numbers. Jones should be thought of as a starter in most line ups this week, although I do think Miami is going to surprise some people. Also, don’t overlook the humidity which has really been kicked up down here in Miami over the past couple of weeks, gonna be a cooker that some players will not be used to…lot of cramping in this game.
Leon Washington: Bench, we have no idea what the role is at this moment for Leon so leave him alone right now.
Ricky Williams: Has been named the starter but I think we all saw what happened to him last season. Now he has had an off season like no other with the instruction of Sporano, Parcells, his OC, I think I want to believe that Rickey(31 yrs old), will be a viable starter but part of my brain says the deck is stacked against him. Now as far as this game is concerned…I’m not high on the Jets defense, not tickled over Gholston, not impressed with them at this moment…so I think Ricky might have a decent game on Sunday, but just because he was named the starter, doesn’t mean he will be a Superback.
Ronnie Brown: The Dolphins are bringing him along slowly from his injury and have a human punching bag in front of him with Ricky Williams. The Dolphins don’t care about Ricky but he’s perfect for right now until Brown proves he can handle a full load which I think he will by maybe week 4 or 5, mid season for sure. I don’t see Ricky starting all season.
Final Score: Miami 20…NY Jets 17
Kansas City at New England (-16.5) (46.5)
The Chiefs get the pleasure of going into Foxboro after the Pats went 18-0 and failed to win the Super Bowl to cap off a perfect season…should be fun for the Chiefs.
Larry Johnson: Don’t let the absence of an OL, QB, and supporting cast on offense keep you from wanting to start LJ. Certainly his schedule gets easier but you have tot hink that Croyle will have very little success in the passing game and that the Pats are going to key in on LJ and try and shut him down. In all likelihood Johnson is not going to have a great game against the Pats. Now I think New England is going to be challenged on defense a lot more this year as they have lost some parts but they still are coached by one of the best defensive minded coaches in the entire history of the league. If you have other options, you might think about LJ…I benched him in week 1 last year but I had a stable of ADP, Rudi, and Lamont Jordan to choose from in week 1.
Laurence Maroney: Your guess will be about as good as mine. I have to think the Pats have the upper hand in the trenches even with Dorsey coming in at DT for the Chiefs. What exactly Maroney will do and what his role is in 2008, just remains to be seen. If you have him, certainly think about starting him, but last year he was so hit and miss.
Jordan/Morris: I would just sit these guys as they were likely drafted for bye week fill ins and just allow yourself to gather info and see what/who is going to have what role. Right now, it simply is a guessing game and one I would just leave alone till we know more. But I think the pats are going to win handily so it is likely that they will some action, maybe even siginificant in the 3rd and 4th quarter this week.
Final Score: New England 35…Kansas City 13
Houston at Pittsburgh (-6.5) (43.5)
I want to start this game by basically telling you that if you have to start a Houston RB in week 1…something went terribly wrong at your draft. Who the heck knows what they are going to try and do on Sunday…I do think they will rely heavily on their passing game as they are just too banged up right now and they have a rookie that many think cannot take the NFL grind/pounding so you probably are going to see a rotation of sorts at RB.
Ahman Green/Chris Taylor : I would just bench them in week 1 till we see the health and game plan of the rushing attack.
Steve Slaton: Just keep an eye on him, he might even be available on the WW in some leagues. Slaton is going to get touches at least early on in the season, he has looked good at times in preseason so I expect him to see some action. If you play in PPR leagues, large dynasty leagues…I could almost see people wanting to get him out there but I would likely let him ride the bench for now.
Willie Parker: With the fumbles that Mendy had over the past few weeks, I fully expect Parker to get a good amount of carries, especially early in the season. I am on board with Mendy getting touches near the goal line but if he fumbles, he might not even get those as much we anticipated. Houston has a decent defense and have really had some nice drafts over the past few years, that said they are still far from a world beater and you have to think even a depleted OL in Pitt will be able to open holes.
Rashard Mendenhall: You cannot be eager to start this guy in week 1. Allow him a couple of weeks at least to get into the flow of the regular season. I expect him to progress and come on as the season rolls along, but right now he is a very weak start with the other choices you should have on the roster.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24…Houston 20
Jacksonville at Tennessee (+3.0) (36.5)
This game has a few story lines going on in it. First of all the OL for Jax has sustained a few injuries in the preseason and they may have some challenges against the always stout DL of the Tennessee Titans. There are reasons I can’t get into in this thread for why Jax will win this game on Sunday, but I don’t expect them to run over Tennessee as they just are not healthy enough right now to do so. Garrard would be a nice sneaky play but he has no healthy weapons right now at WR, so I don’t like that move either.
Fred Taylor: Unless you drafted him as your RB2 and you must start 2 in a 12+ team league…I sit him this week. In his last 3 starts in TN, he has 6/-8(not a typo), 37 yds, 45/TD…he doesn’t mass produce against the Titans and I think his particular running style in the here and now, doesn’t match up so well with the Titans.
MJD: In PPR leagues he is always a start, especially if you flex positions. Want to know his stats in 2006 and 2007 on the road in Tenn? 25-98/3-47/TD, and 19-101/3-28/TD…so 150/TD and 130/TD in the two games…pretty good. I’m not usually a stat trend guy, I try to approach each game on its own but it never hurts when division rivalries square off to check the games over the past 3-5 years if players have been in the league that long.
LenDale White: Entering his 3rd year, I still expect him to have a decent role on the team especially early on in the season while Chris Johnson adjusts to the NFL. White has not played well against Jacksonville either. In 2 games last year he had 73 total yds and 8 carries for 12 yds in the 2nd go around. There has to be better options on your roster, sorry.
Chris Johnson: Most should know I am super high on this guy right now…love the mix of raw speed and vision, he has a great knack for taking away the angles for DBs to catch him so once he breaks into the secondary, he has a better than average chance of turning on the jets and going all the way. He tends to score his TD form outside the 10-20 yard line. I think there will be plenty of weeks to start Flash but why push it week 1? This will be a tough game for the Titans to win and I don’t expect their offense to have a lot of good fortune on Sunday.
Final Score: Jacksonville 17…Tennessee 10
Detroit at Atlanta (+3.0) (41.0)…should the Lions be favored on the road against anyone?
2 very questionable OL for these teams, however they both have major issues on the DL which I am going to get into as we break down the match ups here.
Kevin Smith: Seems to have won the starting role. There is a lot of rumor that Rudi Johnson might land here, but let’s deal with what we know. Smith has looked OK in the preseason, and he has run with the 1st team for most of camp…what are the odds a guy will be signed form the street and take over at RB? Not that high IMO. The Falcons have a lot of issues and I think Smith will have a decent 1st game as a rookie…I’m not thrilled with his overall outlook for the season but in week 1, I could see him landing in the top20 if things fall right on Sunday.
Tatum Bell: I wouldn’t even list him but Kevin Smith was not a high 1st round pick so it stands to reason he is going to be brought along somewhat slowly. Bell should be on your bench at best right now.
Michael Turner: I expect good things in week 1 form him even with a bad OL. The Lions lost Shaun Rodgers and he was the only thing keeping them from a decent rush defense and a terrible one. I think Detroit will have a major problem stopping the run this year, and when teams figure that out which won’t take long…it doesn’t bode well for Detroit Skill position players if they are on the sideline all the time. Turner has a great macth up and I think he might make a top10 appearance in week 1.
Jerious Norwood: Eager to see how they work him in, but for now he remains a reserve player in almost all leagues.
Final Score: Atlanta 21…Detroit 20
Seattle at Buffalo (+1.0) (39.5)
MoMo/JJ: Seattle is in complete disarray and quite frankly I expect them to get run out of the building on Sunday so I wouldn’t expect a lot of great things form their running game right now. They have no WR outside of Burleson, no TE, and Buffalo has a vastly improved defense. The line will catch up with Seattle, especially on the road away from their comfy nest. I bench them all right now for Seattle.
Marshawn Lynch : Even without Peters(LT), who is holding out, I still think Lynch should do well this week. I have big expectations for Lynch this year, and Seattle ill be miserable come the 2nd half. They might put up a good fight in the 1st, but once they see they have no offense to count on, they are going to fold in the 2nd. They have some great speedy LB to catch Lynch but this is not the Viking rush defense so don’t confuse the two of them. Start Lynch and shave about 25-30 yards off his total with Peters out…I still think he scores, maybe even twice on Sunday.
Final Score: Buffalo 26…Seattle 13
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3.5) (43.0)
I want to start this game capsule by talking about the Saints and how these Hurricanes have had an impact on them and their plight. I have two thoughts in them right now…the first is that as soon as the projected path for Gustav was announced…and we are talking about when it was much more spread out(the cone), they were on the 1st flight out of there. I’m not sure it was a good thing in terms of PR, but in another sense I thought it was smart because they basically are taking the approach of no excuses…but the reality is that while other teams are in the comfy confines of home, these guys are in Indianapolis presumably at a nice hotel but it’s like being on the road. Will this game be played in New Orleans? Odds are that Gustav is long gone by next Sunday but there is another storm out there that has been mentioned as possibly finding its way into the Gulf and that could have an impact as well. My heart and thoughts go out to all the folks along the Gulf, it seems like you have had more than your fair share of these over the past few years.
Earnest Graham : New Orleans is still not that tough on defense so I think teams should still have success. Davin Joseph(RG), a key part of the Bucs rushing game is out for awhile so it will be a little tougher for the Bucs on offense. Graham should have a decent day and put up respectable numbers in the opener…I’m not that high on him overall for the season but he should fare well on Sunday.
Warrick Dunn: I think he will surprise just how much he will be used this season but for now he is probably best left on the bench.
Reggie Bush: Always a threat OOTB, and I can’t imagine this changing much although if he continues to avg only 5ypc thru the air I would look for a decrease at some point in the number of touches for Bush. He is not going to get more than about 12-15 carries tops in most games this year.
Deuce McAllister: Looked great the other night. The guy has the heart of a lion so I’m sure he will give it 100%, and as long as he is healthy I would expect to see him get around 15 carries a game. I might not trot him out in week 1 till I see the role he plays but I imagine it will be similar to years past. And he can catch the ball when called upon as well.
Final Score: New Orleans 24…Tampa Bay 20
St Louis at Philadelphia (-7.0) (44.5)
I like Philly in this game a lot.
Steven Jackson: Hmmmm, start him? Of course you are going to start him…he is the whole team now. They sure paid him like he is, and last season I said there was no way he would catch 80+ balls again…well that was last year and his injury certainly made that an easy collect on the bet, however this year I can’t imagine how SJax won’t catch 60-70+ balls, in fact as long as he is healthy he is a top3-5 back…too many touches to not hit the numbers, sorry for those that passed on him at the 1.03 and beyond. He’ll find the end zone at some point on Sunday.
Brian Westbrook: Hmmmm, start him too? Again, this is one of those backs that you would almost never think of not starting unless he is injured. Westy should have a big game on Sunday, lot of questions at WR so I look for Westbrook to have probably 8-10 catches in this game, another 12-15 carries. If the Eagles end up running away with this game, you could see a little less of him in the 2nd half.
Buckhalter/Booker: Keep an eye on these 2 to see if either is used more than the other as the back up. I do expect Westbrook to miss some time this season, and when he does I feel one of these two will produce very well.
Final Score: Philadelphia 27…St Louis 17, and I don’t think it will even be that close
Dallas at Cleveland (+4.0) (49)
If you believe Vegas, this will be one of the higher scoring affairs of the day. Top skill position players across the board, should be very entertaining for fans.
Marion Barber III : Hopefully you took him in your redrafts because he is quickly becoming a safe harbor in the 1st round for a lot of owners. I don’t think you can lose if you took him anywhere in the 1st round. Start him with confidence.
Felix Jones: I haven’t seen a lot of him in the preseason and I don’t think he is going to play a large role in the 1st game of the season. This is on the road, and even though Dallas is favored in the football game, don’t think for a second they can just walk off the bus and win the game. I don’t expect that they will ask Felix to do a whole lot in the 1st game, better to let him get warm back in Dallas the next week.
Jamal Lewis: Another RB that I think is relatively a safe choice and will get you some nice points week in and week out. He has one of the best OL in football right now so I expect him to play well on Sunday, no reason to leave him out of your line up.
Final Score: Dallas 31…Cleveland 28
Carolina at San Diego (-9.5) (42.5)
DeAngelo Williams: Stewart, the 1st word I use to describe his outlook and I started it off with Stewart…and the reason is I think we all are a little in the dark as to the exact roles we are going to see. I do think DeAngelo will take the field as the starter but I expect both back to be used a lot. The problem is that San Diego is pretty good on defense and I can’t imagine a scenario where both of these backs are going to have starter type games in week 1. I imagine some of you might have to start DWill this week, but again I don’t see huge numbers for the Carolina ground game, not to mention that Steve Smith is not in the line up and they have few healthy WR right now.
Johnathon Stewart: The 3rd game against Washington in the preseason sent out an awful loud THUD! That sound was Stewart running like a freight train thru that defense…granted it was preseason and I don’t think the Skins are very good at stopping the run, but I do feel he is coming along well after the toe surgery and must be close to full speed if he was playing in that game.
LaDainian Tomlinson: Anyone lucky enough to have him on a roster can just bite me.
Final Score: San Diego 27…Carolina 14
Arizona at San Francisco (-3.0) (41.5)
Edge: Start him with confidence, even with Hightower’s emergence in the preseason James will still be given the majority of the touches. I am being told to not sleep on the SF rush defense, but I’ll believe it when I see it. For right now I wouldn’t keep a guy out of my starting line up because he is facing the big bad 49ers rush defense.
Frank Gore: All systems are go. While I do think his OL presents a challenge, his talent combined with Mike Martz should make for a fun ride for FF owners.
Final Score: Arizona 21…San Fran 20
Chicago at Indianapolis (-9.5) (44.5)
I’m yawning as I am writing this…might not be a good sign for this game on Sunday Night.
Cedric Benson: Just checking to make sure you’re still here.
Matt Forte: I will say this again but the Chicago Bears have perhaps one of the worst OL in the NFL…they are old, slow, and not that powerful either. Now the Colts are not a great rush defense but they seem to be able to come up with plays when they need them…in other words they might allow 5 yds a rush but when it is 3rd and 2, they somehow manage to stop the other team…just something I notice about them. Forte is an unkwown and just because he is starting does not make him a great option. I would do a wait and see with him for a week or two.
Kevin Jones: Forget about it for right now.
Joseph Addai: I don’t think he will have a great night on the ground, but I do expect him to be active in the short passing game. 100 total yds are not out of the question for him.
Final Score: Indianapolis 24…Chicago 14
Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5) (38.5)
What a treat for the MNF kick off, this will be one of the games I most want to watch. So many good skill position players all the way around in this game, but new/young QBs under center…we’ll see how this shakes out but it ought to be fun to watch while I am sitting at the Wynn in Vegas.
Adrian Peterson: Start/Not Start isn’t the issue ever with him, it’s just a matter of what we can expect. Peterson can go off for 200 yards any week but the Packers defense is pretty decent and might present a few problems for an OL missing McKinnie…normally that would cripple a passing game but the Vikes don’t throw the ball so they will simply run between the LG and Center or the right side of the line. I’m sure on MNF, Peterson is going to want to showcase his skills for the entire world to see, not everyone knows him as well as the FF community.
Chester Taylor: No reason to have him in your line up this week I would think.
Ryan Grant : You will want to monitor the health of him this week, but that said he likely will struggle against the #1 rush defense in the NFL over the past 2 years running. The Williams boys clog up the middle and I don’t see how the packers will move the ball on the ground…this is a game where Rodgers, Jennings, and Driver factor greatly into the play book this week…plus Clifton gets a new gift this year of having to block Jared Allen flying off the corner so I expect the pack to really struggle on the ground in this game.
Final Score: Minnesota 20…Green Bay 17
Denver at Oakland (+3.0) (41.5)
Not as exciting as the 1st game but it will be fun to see the career start for McFadden, and also to see how Cutler performs now that he is healthy again.
Selvin Young: Should do well, won’t get all the carries as Hall will see action but I anticipate at least 100 total yds from him.
Andre Hall: He is going to carry some of the load, just how much we won’t know till after the 1st real full game of the season. Let him relax on your bench for now.
Darren McFadden: I am excited to see him take the field but I also think you must temper enthusiasm for him somewhat. He will be splitting time with Fargas for awhile, and I think everyone should be happy if DMC gets around 15 touches a game initially…that would be a good sign.
Justin Fargas: In most redraft leagues this guy should have been about your RB4, so I doubt there is any reason you need to push him out there right now.
Final Score: Denver 23…Oakland 20
This thread lives and dies with the feedback and insight of all of you. Please post any thoughts you have but remember we don't do WDIS which is not an abreviation for Disney World in here...feel free to go over your RB on your roster and why you are playing a guy over another, that is good feedback and the kind of stuff we can all learn from.
Good luck everyone!!!
Last edited by a moderator:
AZ...lost@Pitt...lost 21-0@Cleve...lost@Car...lost@Atl...lostDid win back to back games at St Louis and Philly but were those two teams any good?Now they come in on opening day cross country to Buffalo. And the Bills are a lot better this season, have made a few acquisitions along their defense in th eoff season most notably at NT/DT where you need god players to stop the run. I really think Seattle will get throttled and especially when you factor in that thei WR1, WR2, and WR4 are all on the shelf, they have a rookie TE, OL is not what it was, no running game they can count on...what is appealing about this team? This is almost a slam dunk in favor of Buffalo.
