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RB Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Hello Everyone, it's that time of year and all systems are go for the 2009 National Football League Kickoff. I will once again try and put together a weekly thread primarily focused on RBs. We have been doing this for so many years now but I want to especially wlecome the noobs to the board..."HI NOOBS"

As I like to do in the 1st thread of the year, I want to talk about strategy a bit for week 1 and also get some of the ground rules out of the way. I actually only have a couple of rules and they are mostly repeats of what the board has put in place.

1. Be kind to one another. If someone doesn't know who the RB4 on the practice squad of SF is, please don't light them up in here. This thread thrives with points of views from everybody so if someone isn't quite up to your knowledge simply help them out, don't rub their noses in it. And please don't elicit posts that belong in the FFA, Joe gives you an entire forum to roll out your schtick.

2. It's the 1st week of the season, don't try and out think it too much. Go with what you know over what you don't know. I posted some quick hits on players I am unsure of in week 1 and I encourage you to not input players that could be risks of not being in the game plan. Take a week to sit and watch the games before you start rolling Felix Jones out there as your RB1, that's all I'm really saying here.

3. You disagree with my takes, AWESOME. Tell us why you feel that way so we can all learn. If I gloss over a player, tell me about him, don't just post "You didn't say much about player X but I own him and.." I understand, we all want our starters to be green lighted every week and told they will score 300 yds and 5 TDs, however the reality is that ain't gonna happen. If you want green lighted RBs every week, I hope you drafted ADP and DWill :bag:

4. Have fun, have fun, have fun. When it stops being fun, its time to find a new hobby.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-5)(35): This is going to be a slugfest. I believe most owners who have to use players in this game are just hopeful for an average night from their starters.

Chris Johnson: Can’t be excited with this match up but even if TEN is held to around 200-250 yards you have to think CJ will account for at least 75 of that. Maybe 2-3 dumps to help pad the stats a little.

Len Dale White: I can’t envision TN running the ball to close the game out in the 2nd half. I would look elsewhere in week 1.

Willie Parker: Is he starting? Watch the injury reports, obviously the Steelers feel no need to abuse him in preseason so I imagine when we get to the live games that Parker is going to be asked to carry a good size of the load. If you have stronger options by all means go for it but I don’t see a huge need to rest him or put him on your bench.

Rashard Mendenhall: Has looked terrible in the preseason and I wouldn’t want to start him in week 1. Watch and observe with him for awhile, maybe a long while.

Mewelde Moore: Likely will some action, at least on passing situations I see him being on the field. Would not surprise me to see him with more points than Mendy.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 20…Tennessee 17

Miami at Atlanta (-4)(43): This game could go a few ways. Atlanta has had a lot of turnover on defense and no one really knows exactly what to expect from them. What we do know is they seem pretty coordinated on offense and whether they decide to line up and run right at you or go play action or run a wide open set, they have the personnel right now to do whatever they want. The Dolphins will be better on defense than offense again this year. Look for them to play good sound tight defense and I believe this game will actually be low scoring.

Ronnie Brown: I see no reason to sit him down. All signs point to him getting a large workload and a lot of touches. Unless the front office and coaching staff was setting us all up for a repeat of 2008, I believe Brown will have a much larger role this year. No reason he can’t be a factor on the road in Atlanta.

Ricky Williams: Shouldn’t have to look here for points in week 1.

Michael Turner: All systems go. I wouldn’t expect one fo those 200 yard performances this weekend but he should get his.

Jerious Norwood: Recovering form injury, see no reason you should be looking to start him this week.

Final Score: Miami 17…Atlanta 16

Kansas City at Baltimore (-10)(37): The Chiefs look to be in total disarray. The Ravens have looked like they were in mid season form. The Ravens should crush KC in week 1.

Larry Johnson/Jamal Charles: Bench them both. I cannot imagine KC putting a lot of points on the board or closing the game out in the 4th quarter.

Ray Rice: Best option of the three.

Willis McGahee: may see some extra mop up duty.

LeRon McClain: Gotta wait and see how many touches he gets and if he will continue to get the goal line work or not.

Final Score: Baltimore 34…Kansas City 7

Philly at Carolina (+1)(43): Gonna be a close game but one that should be good for RB owners.

Brian Westbrook: Hasn’t played during the preseason, so what? As long as he is named the starter you have to roll him out.

DWill: Also no reason to bench him for any reason in this game. I expect it to be hard fought and there will be points scored.

JStew: I would not play him until we have a chance to assess how injured he really is.

Final Score: Philly 27…Carolina 23

Denver at Cincinnati (-4)(43): Cincinnati might actually start the season on a good note. Denver looks terrible and while Cinci is not a world beater they have not had the off season disturbances that Denver had. I expect the Bengals to come out and do very well on Sunday.

Knowshon Moreno/Peyton Hillis/Buckhalter/Jordan…lets just wait and see what they doo for a week before we make any rash decisions like actually starting one of these guys. If you draft Moreno in late July/early Aug, you might want to go with RB3 this week.

Cedric Benson: If he happens to be the RB3 on your team with Moreno then by all means start him. Benson is not going to turn into Marshall Faulk anytime soon but he should be serviceable in this game.

Final Score: Cincinnati 28…Denver 16

Minnesota at Cleveland (+3.5) (40): I’m sure the dawg pound will be all over Favre but the fact is Cleveland hasn’t looked very good and they seem lost at the QB position. The Vikings may be without the service of their Pro Bowl DTs though and that could make a major difference in the game.

Adrian Peterson: Hmmmm, let’s see, uhmmmmm yeah, this looks like a decent place to start him.

Chester Taylor: Will score more than you think in PPR leagues.

Jamal Lewis: Still the starter for now. If the Vikes are missing pieces along the DL, Lewis becomes a viable start.

James Davis: Not yet

Final Score: Minnesota 19…Cleveland 16

New York Jets at Houston (-4.5)(43): I would not hesitate to start the Houston Texans defense this week. Sanchez will be in for a ride in his 1st regular season game.

Thomas Jones: I think everyone wants to see what happens with this guy when the season opens. Washington has been looking sensational in the preseason. I still think the Jets will lean on Jones a lot early in the season as Sanchez gets his bearings. Probably not a great start but that OL should open some holes for Jones to find running room.

Leon Washington: They will call his number, just a matter of how often. When the Jets fall behind you can bet Washington will be out there as a receiving threat. I could see where he might have 30-40 yds rushing but 3-5 receptions for another 30-50 yds which makes him start able in PPR Flex leagues.

Steve Slaton: No reason to sit him.

Final Score: Houston 26…NY Jets 20

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)(44.5): I believe this game will be choppy. The coaching changes in Indy really scare me. If this game comes down to coaching…Del Rio is not inspiring but Caldwell might be in over his head.

MJD: Had a big scare this past week but owners will have to start him unless the injury proves worse than a bruise.

Joseph Addai: I like him to start the season out on a good note. 100 yds combined and a few catches. Owners that gobbled him up in the 4th and 5th round of redraft are going to be happy Monday Morning.

Donald Brown: Wait and see for a week IMHO.

Final Score: Indy 24…Jacksonville 17

Detroit at New Orleans (-13)(48): I like the Saints offense but this is a pretty big spread for a team that was about .500 last season. I am pulling for Detroit to look better this season and I think they will get better as the year continues. But in week 1 the Saints should prevail with a superior offense. If the ground game is down to their RB3, look for NO to throw it a lot.

Kevin Smith: Should leap out week 1 with a nice match up. I would not hesitate to start him against NO.

Reggie Bush: Wait and see if he is healthy

Pierre Thomas: If he starts I would play him.

Mike Bell: If Bell is names the starter I think many will rush to get him in their line up…I would want to wait and see what he does when he is actually names the starter.

-Watch the IR report on this one. I’ll update once the IR comes out on Wed/Thur and then follow it up thru kick off.

Final Score: New Orleans 31…Detroit 20

Dallas at Tampa Bay (+5.5)(39): Line opened at 2.5, lot of money going on the Cowboys here. The Bucs look terrible and in disarray with the firing of their OC right before the season starts. Dallas simply has better players all over the field and talent should win out on Sunday.

Marion Barber III: Start him. Dallas will want to run the ball in the 2nd half to shorten the game as much as possible. They have the right type of team to grind the ball out when they want to. I expect MB III to get at least 15-20 touches for the game.

Felix Jones: Flex spots are ripe for this type of play. I expect him to see somewhere in the 10-15 touch range depending on how the game flows.

Tashard Choice: Bench until injuries pop up.

Cadillac Williams: Will get the start I believe. I wouldn’t expect a huge game but when this guy starts and competes big things happen. He’d be a very ballsy start for someone but personally I’d lie to see the Bucs offense for a week or two before I went and started making plans.

Derrick Ward: Wait and see I think

Earnest Graham: RB3 for the moment.

Final Score: Dallas 23…Tampa Bay 13

San Fran at Arizona (-6.5)(46): The Niners offense outside of Coffee has looked terrible in the preseason. Shaun Hill had his moments last year but he’s done diddly this preseason. The Cardinals simply have too much fire power for the Niners.

Frank Gore: Start him, no reason not to. In 2006 he racked up 16/87/2TD, 6/83 rec, 11/51/2TD, 6/35…In 2007 he produced 18/51/TD and 21/116/2TD plus 11/98 rec…In 2008 14/96/TD plus 4/55 rec, and 105 total yds in the last game…the point is he has big games against Arizona so of the studs this week Gore has an especially easy path.

Chris Wells: Likely to be involved this week. Looked good at the end of camp.

Tim Hightower: Should see action, sort of a wait and see approach to the split in carries here.

Final Score: Arizona 31…San Fran 17

Washington at New York Giants (-6.5) (37.5): This line is silly to be that lopsided for the Giants. I expect a very close game and an upset in this one.

Clinton Portis: I looked up his stats vs the G-Men and it’s a pretty mixed bag to be honest. I don’t see anything that screams easy like I did Gore. I wouldn’t bench Portis but I would not be expecting a huge day either.

Brandon Jacobs: Gonna be tough sledding for him against that new and improved Skins DLine. With not a lot of air support at the moment it might be difficult for Jacobs to get going in this one.

Ahmad Bradshaw: I like him as a possible flex play this week. I want to see if NY plans to use him as extensively as they did Derrick Ward.

Final Score: Washington 20…New York Giants 17

St Louis at Seattle (-7.5) (41.5): Can’t say I am eager for this game. One of the few stinkers over the weekend. Only thing interesting really is the skill players for these two teams.

Steven Jackson: Start him while you can. The guy has suffered thru a lot of injuries so here’s to a healthy season. IN PPR leagues vs Seattle recently he has posted 17, 22, 18, 22, 25…the guy racks points and he should see the ball plenty against Seattle.

All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.

Final Score: Seattle 21…St Louis 20

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5) (46): What a great week 1 match up. Should be a lot of fireworks in this one.

Matt Forte: Start him all day long. He was not great against GB last season but he wasn’t terrible either. Should be fine on Sunday with some new and improved air attack behind him.

Ryan Grant: Should do very well. He plays well against the Bears too so he’s familiar with their defense. I think Grant could be in for a big year as I reposted in my RB thread earlier in the week. A guy that suddenly stands to benefit big time form playing in the same backfield with Aaron Rodgers.

Final Score: Green Bay 27…Chicago 21

Buffalo at New England (-10.5) (47): Pats win handily

Fred Jackson: Will get the workload with Lynch suspended. I don’t think he’ll fare too well but I understand a lot of people have to start him.

Fred Taylor: I expect Taylor to have a lot of 15/60 performances throughout the year. I don’t see him featured at the goal line, nor do I see him catching a lot of balls. He will get a few carries just to keep the defenses guessing but if you faced brady and Moss I think you would focus your attention to stopping him 1st. The rest of the NE RBs are going to be hard to predict.

Final Score: New England 35…Buffalo 14

San Diego at Oakland (+9.0) (43): Chargers should blow them out on MNF.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Always, always, always

Darren Sproles: Will see time and especially once San Diego get on top of Oakland. Possible flex option but I want to see the actual split in carries before I get too excited.

Darren McFadden: Is he starting? I think if you have other solid options I would turn to them for the 1st week. Let’s see what Oakland has planned first.

Michael Bush: Said to be in line to get touches.

Final Score: San Diego 37…Oakland 14

This thread lives and dies with all your posts and questions throughout the week so don't be shy. Also I know people get upset because of potential WDIS posts. Let me walk you thru a way to get more info and everyone comes out ahead.

Scenario: I have players A, B and C...I am leaning towards sitting player B for player C because of these stats and or personal opinions...blah blah blah. Folks will answer you back or give differing opinions. Again, use your head and you'll get some good responses.

Good Luck in week 1 everyone :goodposting:

 
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Nice write up...I'm getting pumped.

Edit: I love these posts throughout the year. I really don't have any major decisions to make or I would try to generate some discussion. Thanks for the effort. If time permits, would love to see some projections for a few players, just for fun. But thanks :goodposting:

 
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At 1st look, it seems like most of the stud RBs or 1st/2nd round Rbs all have decent to favorable match ups except for just a few like Chris Johnson who has a rough go of it week 1. I would think most owners are pretty excited about week 1.

 
Good job as always MOP.

I'll be rolling with Ray Rice as RB2 over Portis this week. I don't see any way the Ravens don't roll over the Chiefs. Rive should get a good number of touches and may break a long one.

 
I can't remember, do you do WR matchups too or is that laughinboy? Those seem to be where I really struggle on WDIS type deals.

 
San Diego at Oakland (+9.0) (43): Chargers should blow them out on MNF.

Final Score: San Diego 37…Oakland 14

I am calling you on this one, although I generally agree with your analysis. Chargers should still win, maybe cover the spread, but this game will be competitive. Raiders just got Seymour from the Pats, and a lot of people don't realize just how good Jamarcus Russell is. As for RB's, I see McFadden getting close to 100 yards and 1 TD. A week ago, I couldn't have agreed more with your prediction.

 
I can't remember, do you do WR matchups too or is that laughinboy? Those seem to be where I really struggle on WDIS type deals.
Not sure but Jeff Tefertiller from the staff runs a lot of thread in the Ast Coach's forum. He is a very kind gentleman, if you PM him I bet he'll try and help. But he has a big thread pinned I think in the other forum. He's a plethora of useless knowledge :thumbup:
 
Any possibility Fred Jackson could be a start in PPR leagues. I can see them getting behind and Jackson getting ALOT of dump off passes in that one. 6-7 catches seem like the floor.

 
San Diego at Oakland (+9.0) (43): Chargers should blow them out on MNF.

Final Score: San Diego 37…Oakland 14

I am calling you on this one, although I generally agree with your analysis. Chargers should still win, maybe cover the spread, but this game will be competitive. Raiders just got Seymour from the Pats, and a lot of people don't realize just how good Jamarcus Russell is. As for RB's, I see McFadden getting close to 100 yards and 1 TD. A week ago, I couldn't have agreed more with your prediction.
Guilty.
 
Fantastic write up and I agree with pretty much everything. A few things to add...

according to the FBGs ultimate strength of schedule article, the following teams have HOT match-ups in week 1

Baltimore
Dallas
Miami
Minny
New Orleans
San Diego
SeattleAlso i think Harvin should be included on this discussion even tho he's listed as WR because he figures to get 5+ carries, esp. if Minny puts the game away in the 3rd quarter. I would expect them to take it easy with AP (i would) and let chester and harvin ice the game. Harvin might be looking at 30-50 yards rushing. Always risky to start a rookie in week 1, but i missed out big time last year by keeping CJ4.24 on the bench vs. Jax.

i've got a few lineup decisions to make, here are a few quandaries (all PPR):

Felix, DBrown, or PThomas. If Thomas practices this week, he's looking really juicy against Detroit, but if he's not practicing i will not feel comfortable putting him in. according to reports, he suggested he's 75-80%. I'm starting Addai - supported by your comments - and considering starting DBrown as well. I would hate to see Addai get the work on a couple drives and Donald to vulture a TD or two. Felix falls into more of the "wait and see" category.

DBrown or Harvin. i also own Addai in this league and am really tempted to start Brown for reasons listed above. But Harvin is very intriguing... I think the safer play tho is to start Brown and see how Harvin is going to be implemented in the game plan. in other leagues where i have Brown but DON'T have Addai, i'm less compelled to start him.

Moreno, Wells, Washington. i'd like to see Moreno practicing this week, but more than that i would like to have seen him play in the pre-season. same goes for Wells, although he did look solid in pre-season week 3 with 2 TDs. wait-and-see seems like the way to go here, but i do feel like i'm taking a step down by starting Washington... but Leon may be the safe 10 point play.

Reggie Bush, Felix might as well play Bush here (while he's moderately healthy) with the juicy matchup.

feel free to comment on whatever you like, or if you don't like, hopefully this will encourage some discussion about Harvin and the idea of starting Rookie RBs in general (specifically, Moreno, Wells, and Brown - with and without Addai).

 
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.

 
Fantastic write up and I agree with pretty much everything. A few things to add...

according to the FBGs ultimate strength of schedule article, the following teams have HOT match-ups in week 1

Baltimore
Dallas
Miami
Minny
New Orleans
San Diego
SeattleAlso i think Harvin should be included on this discussion even tho he's listed as WR because he figures to get 5+ carries, esp. if Minny puts the game away in the 3rd quarter. I would expect them to take it easy with AP (i would) and let chester and harvin ice the game. Harvin might be looking at 30-50 yards rushing. Always risky to start a rookie in week 1, but i missed out big time last year by keeping CJ4.24 on the bench vs. Jax.

i've got a few lineup decisions to make, here are a few quandaries (all PPR):

Felix, DBrown, or PThomas. If Thomas practices this week, he's looking really juicy against Detroit, but if he's not practicing i will not feel comfortable putting him in. according to reports, he suggested he's 75-80%. I'm starting Addai - supported by your comments - and considering starting DBrown as well. I would hate to see Addai get the work on a couple drives and Donald to vulture a TD or two. Felix falls into more of the "wait and see" category.

DBrown or Harvin. i also own Addai in this league and am really tempted to start Brown for reasons listed above. But Harvin is very intriguing... I think the safer play tho is to start Brown and see how Harvin is going to be implemented in the game plan. in other leagues where i have Brown but DON'T have Addai, i'm less compelled to start him.

Moreno, Wells, Washington. i'd like to see Moreno practicing this week, but more than that i would like to have seen him play in the pre-season. same goes for Wells, although he did look solid in pre-season week 3 with 2 TDs. wait-and-see seems like the way to go here, but i do feel like i'm taking a step down by starting Washington... but Leon may be the safe 10 point play.

Reggie Bush, Felix might as well play Bush here (while he's moderately healthy) with the juicy matchup.

feel free to comment on whatever you like, or if you don't like, hopefully this will encourage some discussion about Harvin and the idea of starting Rookie RBs in general (specifically, Moreno, Wells, and Brown - with and without Addai).
Excellent!!!1. I could not disagree with your harvin analysis more although it does sound good the way you put it...but believe me they won't be winning in a blowout at this game. I think Taylor is a much better option in a flex on that team. Harvin has not shown he can run a route worth a lick, he really looks like a project to me right now.

2. Addai, yes I would favor him.

3. I like your Washington take.

4. And I follow your Bush logic.

Please frequent this thread, excellent post.

 
Ministry of Pain. I agree the Seattle RB's may be fuzzy as to who to start. However do you really believe the Rams will keep it that close? I will be surprised if Seattle can not muster up 28 points easy on the Rams. I see them passing at will against the Rams and one of the backs reaping the benefits during garbage time. Could be Edge but most likely JJ raking up points on someones bench

 
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.
Out of curiosity, where do you see JJ finishing this week? There are 32 starting RBs, probably another 10-15 that see significant playing time...where does JJ rank in your mind this week?
 
Cadillac Williams: Will get the start I believe. I wouldn’t expect a huge game but when this guy starts and competes big things happen. He’d be a very ballsy start for someone but personally I’d lie to see the Bucs offense for a week or two before I went and started making plans.

Derrick Ward: Wait and see I think

Earnest Graham: RB3 for the moment.

___________________________________________________

I'd have to disagree and swap Ward and Caddy. Ward will get the start and the lions share of carries. Caddy will see carries when D Ward needs a breather or as a change of pace.

 
Cadillac Williams: Will get the start I believe. I wouldn’t expect a huge game but when this guy starts and competes big things happen. He’d be a very ballsy start for someone but personally I’d lie to see the Bucs offense for a week or two before I went and started making plans.Derrick Ward: Wait and see I thinkEarnest Graham: RB3 for the moment. ___________________________________________________I'd have to disagree and swap Ward and Caddy. Ward will get the start and the lions share of carries. Caddy will see carries when D Ward needs a breather or as a change of pace.
Do you have a link for this? From what I observed in the preseason the Bucs want to use Caddy as he is healthy. From Bob Henry's camp report...RB: The Bucs RB picture has evolved during the preseason into a potential three-headed monster that has fantasy owners a bit nervous. Derrick Ward was given a lot of money to come to Tampa Bay and play a significant role. Earnest Graham figured to be in the mix as he has been the last few seasons. Cadillac Williams seemed like an afterthought coming off his second straight season-ending knee injury. Yet Williams was given the start so the team could judge where he’s at going into the season. Williams responded running eight times for 54 yards. His fourth run went for 19-yards and while he lacked the explosion and cutting ability he showed as a rookie, he still ran strong and decisively. Williams said his left knee felt great after his first preseason action, and so the discussion begins. Graham also looked good running for 39 yards on five carries. Ward didn’t have as much room to run on his four carries as he gained only 3 yards, but caught two balls for 13 yards. Coach Morris spoke of a 2-2-1 rotation with Ward, Graham and Williams all playing a part, but the surprising part is that Graham, not Williams, was the one mentioned as the 20% backup contributor.If Caddy gets 40% of the carries or 2 series then Ward 2 series...could get dicey.
 
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.
The odds are definitely in JJ favor to have a good game against the Rams. I see no way the Rams will hang with the Seahawks. Unless you lucked up and have two solid RB's or play in a start one RB league, I would find it hard to bench Jones against the Rams.
 
Ministry of Pain. I agree the Seattle RB's may be fuzzy as to who to start. However do you really believe the Rams will keep it that close? I will be surprised if Seattle can not muster up 28 points easy on the Rams. I see them passing at will against the Rams and one of the backs reaping the benefits during garbage time. Could be Edge but most likely JJ raking up points on someones bench
Here's my problem with Seattle...they are not great along the OL or DL...are they better at QB, WR/TE, LB, and DB? Probably but where they need to be the toughest they simply are not. Very pedestrian OL and their DL...can you name the starting 3 or 4 there? I can't and I actually follow this crap. There just doesn't seem to be a reason to think they blow the Rams out. The Rams are looking at this as a possible win on their schedule, not an automatic loss.
 
MOP, curious why ADP is not in green? I know green makes more sense, but can you find one that is easier to see or possibly go blue?

 
What is your take on the Oakland RB situation? Do you see it similar to NO where McFadden=R Bush and M Bush=PT?

Trying to get a feel for M Bush and what to expect from him or if it will be another Oakland trainwreck worth avoiding.

Thanks.

 
Shouldnt Ray Rice and Cedric Benson be in Green? Seems to me that both KC and Denver have horrible run defenses and both games look to be a blowout so wouldnt the starting RB be an awesome play here? Maybe I am reading your synopsis wrong?

 
MOP, curious why ADP is not in green? I know green makes more sense, but can you find one that is easier to see or possibly go blue?
Good question PT. Honestly, I don't typically highlight guys like ADP and LT because they are going tob e started no matter what. maybe if MN had a lot of injuries to their OL, ADP was struggling, and they were playing Balt/Pitt...but even then you would want to start ADP likely.
 
Detroit at New Orleans (-13)(48): I like the Saints offense but this is a pretty big spread for a team that was about .500 last season. I am pulling for Detroit to look better this season and I think they will get better as the year continues. But in week 1 the Saints should prevail with a superior offense. If the ground game is down to their RB3, look for NO to throw it a lot.

Kevin Smith: Should leap out week 1 with a nice match up. I would not hesitate to start him against NO.

Reggie Bush: Wait and see if he is healthy

Pierre Thomas: If he starts I would play him.

Mike Bell: If Bell is names the starter I think many will rush to get him in their line up…I would want to wait and see what he does when he is actually names the starter.

-Watch the IR report on this one. I’ll update once the IR comes out on Wed/Thur and then follow it up thru kick off.

Final Score: New Orleans 31…Detroit 20
There is no way the revamped New Orleans defense gives up 20 points to the Lions. Forget last year and think of other Greg Williams led defenses- Skins, Jacksonville, etc etc. Kevin =75 yds and 1 TD. I would still start him unless I had better options. FINAL New Orleans 31 Lions 10. Also They will have a balanced attack in the first half and grind it out with Bell the rest of the way. Forget the #3 RB crap. He is very capable.
 
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Excellent!!!1. I could not disagree with your harvin analysis more although it does sound good the way you put it...but believe me they won't be winning in a blowout at this game. I think Taylor is a much better option in a flex on that team. Harvin has not shown he can run a route worth a lick, he really looks like a project to me right now.2. Addai, yes I would favor him.3. I like your Washington take.4. And I follow your Bush logic.Please frequent this thread, excellent post.
you don't see Minny blowing out a listless Cleveland team that can't stop the run? i'm thinking Peterson is going to go over 150 yards and maybe get 2 TDs, with chester also flex worthy with 50-100 total yards including 2 or 3 receptions. excellent rush offense + terrible run defense = good things for everyone. harvin is certainly a risky play, but it sounds like we're on opposite sides of the hype. i've acquired him in 5 out of 8 leagues. i'll probably only start him in one or two leagues this week.what about the idea of starting both brown and addai?
 
Shouldnt Ray Rice and Cedric Benson be in Green? Seems to me that both KC and Denver have horrible run defenses and both games look to be a blowout so wouldnt the starting RB be an awesome play here? Maybe I am reading your synopsis wrong?
Tell me what you see for Rice in week 1? They are playing KC, he will see action, but do you think he gets all the touches? How many touches? If it's a blowout does mcGahee and McClain see any action? Do you think Baltimore will unroll a new and improved passing game with a 2nd year QB now in Joe Flacco? Benson is worth starting but I might not highlight him in green. Cinci has some major holes on that OL, Smith breaking his foot didn't help either.
 
What is your take on the Oakland RB situation? Do you see it similar to NO where McFadden=R Bush and M Bush=PT?Trying to get a feel for M Bush and what to expect from him or if it will be another Oakland trainwreck worth avoiding.Thanks.
IMO i'd start McFadden this week, but i would wait and see with Bush. McFadden has a real advantage right now in that the defense won't be prepared for the packages that Oakland is going to use him... ie in the slot or out wide (if he does that). he's fresh and fast right now. in a few weeks, i think you can expect more pounding from Bush.
 
There is no way the revamped New Orleans defense gives up 20 points to the Lions. Forget last year and think of other Greg Williams led defenses- Skins, Jacksonville, etc etc. Kevin =75 yds and 1 TD. I would still start him unless I had better options.
it's not necessary to quote the entire OP... please edit to make the thread more readable. TIA.
 
Detroit at New Orleans (-13)(48): I like the Saints offense but this is a pretty big spread for a team that was about .500 last season. I am pulling for Detroit to look better this season and I think they will get better as the year continues. But in week 1 the Saints should prevail with a superior offense. If the ground game is down to their RB3, look for NO to throw it a lot.

Kevin Smith: Should leap out week 1 with a nice match up. I would not hesitate to start him against NO.

Reggie Bush: Wait and see if he is healthy

Pierre Thomas: If he starts I would play him.

Mike Bell: If Bell is names the starter I think many will rush to get him in their line up…I would want to wait and see what he does when he is actually names the starter.

-Watch the IR report on this one. I’ll update once the IR comes out on Wed/Thur and then follow it up thru kick off.

Final Score: New Orleans 31…Detroit 20
There is no way the revamped New Orleans defense gives up 20 points to the Lions. Forget last year and think of other Greg Williams led defenses- Skins, Jacksonville, etc etc. Kevin =75 yds and 1 TD. I would still start him unless I had better options.
Thanks Bush, in the future try and just highlight the section of the original post you want to discuss...or even just state Det vs NO. I think most will know what you are talking about. Do you live in NO? Are you going to the game?
 
Shouldnt Ray Rice and Cedric Benson be in Green? Seems to me that both KC and Denver have horrible run defenses and both games look to be a blowout so wouldnt the starting RB be an awesome play here? Maybe I am reading your synopsis wrong?
Tell me what you see for Rice in week 1? They are playing KC, he will see action, but do you think he gets all the touches? How many touches? If it's a blowout does mcGahee and McClain see any action? Do you think Baltimore will unroll a new and improved passing game with a 2nd year QB now in Joe Flacco? Benson is worth starting but I might not highlight him in green. Cinci has some major holes on that OL, Smith breaking his foot didn't help either.
I see Rice having a phenomenal game at KC. Why wouldnt he get the bulk of the carries? I doubt that the Ravens use McGahee too much early in the year to not wear him out. I see Rice catching at least 5 balls and running at least 15 times. McClain might vulture a TD but based on preseason I doubt they pull Rice at the GL. Personally I would think that Rice is the best play this week in Fantasy.As for Benson you know he will get every significant touch at RB and even catch a few balls. Denver run d was atrocious last year and you would think the Bengals would exploit that with Benson.
 
There is no way the revamped New Orleans defense gives up 20 points to the Lions. Forget last year and think of other Greg Williams led defenses- Skins, Jacksonville, etc etc. Kevin =75 yds and 1 TD. I would still start him unless I had better options.
it's not necessary to quote the entire OP... please edit to make the thread more readable. TIA.
fixed before I even read this but thanks
 
Excellent!!!

1. I could not disagree with your harvin analysis more although it does sound good the way you put it...but believe me they won't be winning in a blowout at this game. I think Taylor is a much better option in a flex on that team. Harvin has not shown he can run a route worth a lick, he really looks like a project to me right now.

2. Addai, yes I would favor him.

3. I like your Washington take.

4. And I follow your Bush logic.

Please frequent this thread, excellent post.
you don't see Minny blowing out a listless Cleveland team that can't stop the run? i'm thinking Peterson is going to go over 150 yards and maybe get 2 TDs, with chester also flex worthy with 50-100 total yards including 2 or 3 receptions. excellent rush offense + terrible run defense = good things for everyone. harvin is certainly a risky play, but it sounds like we're on opposite sides of the hype. i've acquired him in 5 out of 8 leagues. i'll probably only start him in one or two leagues this week.

what about the idea of starting both brown and addai?
Another good question but I would not do this? In best ball league it doesn't matter but starting Addai and Brown week 1? no way I could support that and Addai has looked really good in the preseason. His receiving abilities i believe will give him about a 2:1 lead on drives. Meaning I think we see him 2 drives and then Brown.
 
Thanks Bush, in the future try and just highlight the section of the original post you want to discuss...or even just state Det vs NO. I think most will know what you are talking about. Do you live in NO? Are you going to the game?
Yes. i am a season ticket holder. I am also the entertainment on the Bud bridge before the game.
 
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I see felix doing more with his 10-15 touches than CJ against Pitt. Hell, if mike bell is named starter he will outproduce CJ, IMO

 
What is your take on the Oakland RB situation? Do you see it similar to NO where McFadden=R Bush and M Bush=PT?Trying to get a feel for M Bush and what to expect from him or if it will be another Oakland trainwreck worth avoiding.Thanks.
I definitely could see where McFadden could be used like a RBush and Michael Bush being used int he Pierre Thomas role but the difference here is that Bush and Thomas explode because of the total offense. Oakland doesn't have Drew Brees, Colston, or even Lance Moore right now. Until the passing game can make teams respect it, the running game will suffer.
 
Shouldnt Ray Rice and Cedric Benson be in Green? Seems to me that both KC and Denver have horrible run defenses and both games look to be a blowout so wouldnt the starting RB be an awesome play here? Maybe I am reading your synopsis wrong?
Tell me what you see for Rice in week 1? They are playing KC, he will see action, but do you think he gets all the touches? How many touches? If it's a blowout does mcGahee and McClain see any action? Do you think Baltimore will unroll a new and improved passing game with a 2nd year QB now in Joe Flacco? Benson is worth starting but I might not highlight him in green. Cinci has some major holes on that OL, Smith breaking his foot didn't help either.
I see Rice having a phenomenal game at KC. I got that part

Why wouldnt he get the bulk of the carries?

He shares the backfield with 2 RBs that both have had their moments.

I doubt that the Ravens use McGahee too much early in the year to not wear him out.

If this is true, then you are saying that McGahee is who they really covet...you're not implying that are you? i don't think so but it reads that way.

I see Rice catching at least 5 balls and running at least 15 times. McClain might vulture a TD but based on preseason I doubt they pull Rice at the GL.

I do think McClain will still see action near the goal line

Personally I would think that Rice is the best play this week in Fantasy.

#1? Really? He does have other backs that will see touches. This isn't like Turner here with no one else touching the ball.

As for Benson you know he will get every significant touch at RB and even catch a few balls. Denver run d was atrocious last year and you would think the Bengals would exploit that with Benson.
 
Thanks Bush, in the future try and just highlight the section of the original post you want to discuss...or even just state Det vs NO. I think most will know what you are talking about. Do you live in NO? Are you going to the game?
Yes. i am a season ticket holder. I am also the entertainment on the Bud bridge before the game.
Awesome, what do you do for Budweiser?
 
What is your take on the Oakland RB situation? Do you see it similar to NO where McFadden=R Bush and M Bush=PT?Trying to get a feel for M Bush and what to expect from him or if it will be another Oakland trainwreck worth avoiding.Thanks.
IMO i'd start McFadden this week, but i would wait and see with Bush. McFadden has a real advantage right now in that the defense won't be prepared for the packages that Oakland is going to use him... ie in the slot or out wide (if he does that). he's fresh and fast right now. in a few weeks, i think you can expect more pounding from Bush.
That's the feel I get and unfortunately I only have Bush although McFadden did slide in my draft. I'm in a situation where I need to cut Edge or Bush and am liking Bush because i do think he will see some GL carries.........if they ever get near the GL.
 
All Seattle RBs: Bench until we see how they are being used. In an absolute pinch you might start Julius Jones but even then I might wait and see. JJ’s 2nd biggest game last year was against St Louis.
If you drafted Julius Jones and don't have two top RBs on your squad with good matchups, this would be the week to start him IMO. Edge is fresh on the team and won't get many carries yet (this will probably change once we get a few weeks into the season) and it's against the Rams so they will have plenty of opportunity to run the ball throughout the game.

I don't see Forsett taking more than a change-of-pace role at this point of the season.
Out of curiosity, where do you see JJ finishing this week? There are 32 starting RBs, probably another 10-15 that see significant playing time...where does JJ rank in your mind this week?
I have not looked at the week 1 matchups yet (other than just looking through your post...which is great BTW). My draft is coming up on Wednesday night so I'm mostly concentrating on that. I could see JJ getting a TD and 80-90 yds without being surprised about it. I'm not saying his a must start or anything like that (just like you, I have some concerns about their O-line) but if you drafted him, this may be one of the best situations of the season to plug him in. If you drafted two RBs in the first 3 rounds then you probably have better options.

 
its my opinion that Rice is a must start against the Chiefs, and McGahee and McClain are only desperation moves. i predict that McClain will not be used except on 3rd and 1 and inside the 5.... Rice is still the RB inside the red zone because of his receiving ability. I just think McGahee and McLain are too risky to start even against a KC defense... if i had to pick one it would be Willis, because the defense is so soft that they won't need to use McClain.

ETA - one of Willis or McClain will get a TD, but i don't know who.

 
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I see felix doing more with his 10-15 touches than CJ against Pitt. Hell, if mike bell is named starter he will outproduce CJ, IMO
I follow what you're saying. It's a risk though. Johnson is likely to have 20 touches in the game. I just think in th eheat at Tampa that grinding it out with MB III in the 2nd half is going to look awfully appealing to Dallas at a certain point. Not sure why I give the Bucs no chance...it is Spetember, it is a 1:00 game, I will have a sunstroke in that stadium by 2:30...I jsut don't see TB really making a game of this.
 
I see felix doing more with his 10-15 touches than CJ against Pitt. Hell, if mike bell is named starter he will outproduce CJ, IMO
I follow what you're saying. It's a risk though. Johnson is likely to have 20 touches in the game. I just think in th eheat at Tampa that grinding it out with MB III in the 2nd half is going to look awfully appealing to Dallas at a certain point. Not sure why I give the Bucs no chance...it is Spetember, it is a 1:00 game, I will have a sunstroke in that stadium by 2:30...I jsut don't see TB really making a game of this.
furthermore, CJ tore up the Baltimore defense in the playoffs last year and they are just as good as Pitt. CJ will go over 100 total yards this game.but the real reason to start him is you get to watch him on opening night! what more reason do you need??
 
First off I love these threads that you do. I enjoy the constructive banter and different opinions. Makes the season interesting.

What I was saying about Mcghaee is that I doubt they will use him much early if they dont need him. Why risk it if Rice (and mcclain in your opinion) are doing well. Based on preseason again I doubt they pull Rice too much at the gl, he did well in that role. Plus this is an easy chance to dominate the run. I thought that the Ravens were using McClain more as a FB this year maybe I am wrong. I can easily see Rice getting 150 all purpose yards and at least 1 TD. I dont think you understand how bad KC defense was last year and how good the Ravens Oline is and how good the defense is playing right now. Plus if Flacco continues to develop into a passing QB then I think you see Rice run wild. I just dont think that based on McGahees past that you will see him run the ball 20+ times anymore as long as Rice is there.

 
Really think people are under estimating McFadden's value this year. Bush might be the goalline guy but I think McFadden will see the most touches and be a great target out of the backfield. Russel will need a dump off guy and also McFadden can be a great back running the screen.

Caddy has looked real good, but how can the Bucs just give all htat money to Ward and not give him the rock at least 50% of the time. Caddy will be nicked up by week 5 and make this a mute point.

 
Thanks Bush, in the future try and just highlight the section of the original post you want to discuss...or even just state Det vs NO. I think most will know what you are talking about. Do you live in NO? Are you going to the game?
Yes. i am a season ticket holder. I am also the entertainment on the Bud bridge before the game.
Awesome, what do you do for Budweiser?
I am a Musician. The Saints hire bands all season to play before the game but Bud is the sponsor. I GET FREE BEER!!! and pay. In that order.
 

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