Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Greetings everyone, thanks for stopping by again this week. I changed it up just a little bit and you will find more about the passing game than I have ever incorporated into this thread but I think it is highly relevant when trying to determine the outcome of these games and how they impact the running game as well. I already caught the fact I did not post about the NY Giants RBs this week so I will turn that over to the board and then give my thoughts on them over the weekend at some point. Good Luck!!!
Miami at Carolina (-3) (42.5)
The Dolphins sustained a devastating injury this week as Ronnie Brown was placed on IR thus putting an end to any playoff chances that Miami might have been striving for.
On defense Miami is 7th vs rush and 27th vs the pass. Carolina is 4th vs the pass and 25th vs the rush. Carolina and Miami love to run the football and I would normally give a huge plus to Miami but Ronnie Brown is out so that will change the dynamics of the run game for the Phins. One of the big holes in the Miami rush defense though are 10 rushing TDs which for where they are ranked is pretty high. Almost every week they allow a rushing TD so the odds are with Carolina to do well running the football.
The teams rank 3rd and 4th in terms of rushing offense, both teams had good tandems at RB although Miami is running with Ricky solo for now. The key to this game will be if Carolina can exploit the pass defense of Miami. Some teams have done it but lesser QBs like rookie Mark Sanchez were not really able to exploit it the way other teams have done this year. The Jets account for half of Miami's wins which is why I included them.
Ricky Williams: I think without Ronnie Brown that he will struggle. I wrote in detail in the Ricky thread floating around that this guy has failed at almost every level except as a complimentary role to Ronnie where he excelled the past 2 years. But history has shown that when he has been leaned on as a franchise back that sooner or later he fails. Can he do some damage this week? Yes he can but I believe owners would be wiser to trade him while he is worth the most.
DeAngelo Williams: If he is a go tonight and is alright to start then I like him plenty. He was putting on a showcase against Miami in the preseason so perhaps Miami will rise to the occasion and have their eyes glued on Williams but he is so talented that even when defenses know he is coming they have a tough time stopping him. DWill is one of my favorite RBs in the league, I enjoy watching him and I believe he can have a double digit performance this week as long as he gets the touches.
JStew: Over the last 5 weeks he has had totals of 17, 8, 20, 4, and 20…if you believe in trends he should have a tough time hitting double digits this week. He might get a few more touches but this is a big game as both teams need a win to even think about getting in the playoff picture. The winner will get to .500 but I see Stew being pedestrian if DWill is good to go.
Passing match ups: No one should be starting Chad Henne right now or Delhomme for that matter. Jake was was a little better last week as Muhammed spoke out about Carolina getting the ball downfield and it worked. I also believe that if Delhomme is going to throw an interception, might as well be a long pass so it is more like a punt than the short passes where he throws picks this year. None of the Miami receivers are good options although Carolina does allow a 63% completion percentage which is unheard of if you have the 4th ranked passing defense so my gut tells me they allow short passes most of the time so Devone Bess might be the only play for the Phins WRs.
Final Score: Carolina 20…Miami 17
Cleveland at Detroit (-3) (38.5)
The Browns are dead last in passing offense and they rank 26th in rush offense. They are putrid and lucky they already have 1 win on the season. On defense they are 20th against the pass and 30th against the run. Basically they can't move the ball and they can't stop anyone. None of the Browns on offense are good plays no matter who they face.
The Lions are dead last against the pass allowing over 270 yds a game and 20 TDs vs 6 int. They are 19th against the rush and have only allowed 6 rushing TDs for the season. The fact the Browns cannot throw the football means they will not exploit the weakest part of Detroit's defense.
The Lions on offense have Kevin Smith who has been clawing his way for double digits but has not really done much the past few weeks. I see him having a good game this week as the Lions try and notch their 2nd win of the year and in many respects are a much better team than the Browns. I bet if these 2 teams faced each other 10 times that Detroit might win about 7-8 of them. If Calvin Johnson is back healthy then I see a major advantage for Detroit in the passing game.
Cleveland RBs: Pass
Kevin Smith: Should be a potential starter this week for most teams.
Final Score: Detroit 23…Cleveland 13
Buffalo at Jax (-8.5) (42.5)
The Bills fired their OC before the season started, now 10 weeks later they have fired **** Jauron. I know Ralph Wilson is one of the oldest and respected owners in the league but do you really see them landing a Shanahan, Gruden, or Cowher anytime soon? I don't want to put down the entire city of Buffalo and I even own some rental property up there but in all honesty it isn't an attractive city for most folks in the NFL. I do wish them the best in their search, certainly the Bills themselves have rich history and the only team to go to 4 Super Bowls in a row.
But the Bills are a total mess right now and I don't see how they can march into Jax and pull this off, however they did knock the Panthers off a coupel weeks back when I thought they had no chance in that game too. Jax is not a world beater although they typically play better at home.
Buffalo ranks dead last against the run so expect a huge dose of MJD this coming weekend. Buffalo gives up 1.5 TDs per game and 170 yds to boot. The Jags boast the 6th best rushing attack in the league and post about 1.5 TDs a week as well.
The Bills rank 9th against ht epass and although Jax has a decent air attack especially at home, you have to imagine that JDR will try and run his ground game down Buffalo's throat and see if they can stop it which they have not all season.
The Jags are 21st against the run but as I noted last week they rarely allow 100 yd rushers and they seem to be a bend don't break type which frustrates opposing offenses. Jacksonville also ranks 26th against the pass but Buffalo is not very good at exploiting the pass defense of most teams. If Trent is helthy and the new coach calls a few more pass plays to TO, then you might have a game here but I think that is the exception not the rule this week.
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson: Lynch has been pretty bad along with the entire Bills organization this year. I'm sure he will get some touches but until the passing game takes off there is little to help him and keep defenses honest. Jackson's numbers last week are a little skewed because of the passing TD which you certainly cannot plan on him doing again this week. I wouldn't be excited about either of the this week.
MJD: Should have a big day this week and maybe recapture his #1 spot for the season. Hopefully he doesn't take a knee again at the 1 yd line although you'll get no sympathy points form me as owners have made a killing on this guy all year.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24…Buffalo 14
Pitt at KC (-10) (40)
The Steelers lost to Cinci twice in the same season, wow. Pitt will have a tough time getting a high seed in the playoffs now as they still have to face Baltimore twice which I imagine could be a split.
You know going in that Pitt has a good defense and KC doesn't have a good enough offense to really compete against Pitt. I believe TP is out again with an injury as he re-aggravated an injury from earlier this year.
KC is bottom 10 in almost every phase of the game…rush defense, pass defense, rush offense, and pass offense…this should be a Steeler rout.
Rashard Mendenhall: 2 of his last 3 outings have been real stinkers. Hopefully they get him the ball or at least once they establish the lead they should feed Mendy as they are on the road and want to get out of KC with the victory this weekend. He should have a decent chance for 100 yds and a socre but he is rather inconsistent.
Jamaal Charles: He has a terrible match up this week but boy did he turn some heads last weekend as he racked up over a 100 yds rushing and a TD. He also had 5 targets and I believe 4 receptions in the game so he is a good part of the passing attack as well. While this is going to be a bad week for him, you might be able to scoop him up from an owner that thinks he is sort of meh after this weekend. KC has a decent run schedule down the stretch.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27…Kansas City 14
Indianapolis at Baltimore (PK) (44)
Let's look at Baltimore because they have some real issues stopping the pass. You might say they are ranked 10th against the pass and have allowed 10 TD vs 9 picks…about 200 yds a game so one could post that Manning should have about 200 yds and a TD come Sunday. But if look closer you can see QBs who have had success and they include River 436/2TDs, Brady 258/TD, Palmer 271/TD and 224/TD, and Favre had 278/3TDs. Against the better QBs in the league which Peyton Manning certainly is, the Ravens were not nearly as good as that ranking of 10th would indicate. They have gobbled up the bad QBs but have been exposed by others. I think Peyton will take full advantage of them come Sunday. The Ravens are allowing 8 ppg over the last 3 weeks…just thought I would throw that out there.
Joseph Addai: The Ravens have been in the top5 against the run most of the year but Addai can hurt you in so many different ways. He has had a slew of double digit performances most of the season and many of them in the 15-22 range so I would not be sitting him as he can take 3 or 4 recptions and lengthen out to a nice day for most owners.
Ray Rice: Has really moved to a point where you don't even pay attention to he plays and you just start him. The Colts have been decent against the run lately but it shouldn't matter much on Sunday and when the Ravens do fall behind you can be sure they set up some screens for Rice as he is an excellent receiver for them too.
Final Score: Indy 27…Baltimore 23
Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5) (46)
The Falcons are hurting big time right now as they have come off a pretty bad loss at Carolina and they also have lost the service of Michael Turner for likely the next week or two during a very critical part of the season for Atlanta. The Giants have dropped 4 in a row and are on the brink of a total collapse if they don't right the ship here pretty soon. Both teams are very desperate for a win. Desperation football can sometimes bring out the best in certain players and the Giants' RBs and the running game in general has to "step up" and take charge here.
Atlanta is 26th in rush defense and 28th in pass defense…its amazing that they are even 5-4 right now. Take one of their biggest weapons on offense away and I might be able to understand why this spread is -6.5 for New York who have a healthy dup at RB and Eli Manning to exploit this defense.
New York is 2nd is pass defense although they allow 1.5 TD per game thru the air so don't bench your QB automatically and they also are 13th against the run so teams have found a way to gash them on the ground and then toss it in form short range.
Michael Turner: Won't rule himself out for this week but I cannot imagine he plays with a high ankle sprain and as an owner I hope he rests for a week or two until I need him for the playoffs…aren't you glad I shared that personal team info with you…haha.
Jason Snelling: He was a nice story last week but I assure you that he is no Michael Turner. He was 18/60 on the ground which isn't all that impressive. He might be OK as a stop gap for Turner owners but I am not going to reach for him on the WW nor am I interested in starting him on the road in the Meadowlands.
Can Matt Ryan and the passing game show up this weekend? He has been struggling lately but I would expect with Turner out that you will see a lot of targets for White and Gonzo this week as they try and stay in the game but in all likelihood they are in for a long Sunday.
Final Score: New York 24…Atlanta 17
San Fran at Green Bay (-6.5) (42.5)
SF is near the bottom of passing defenses so expect Green bay to come out throwing it all over the place. It should be a big day for the Green Bay passing game and all their receivers. The Niners are 3rd against the rush and for those saying it is easier to pass the ball, I agree with you but they also are only allowing 3.3 ypc so they are decent against the run, have allowed an avg of .8 rushing TD or almost 1 a game on avg.
Check this out…did you know Green Bay ranks 4th against the run and 6th against the pass? I had to do a double take but it's true!!! With a decent offense how is this team 5-4? Clearly the Pack have the advantage as Alex Smith has shown he is completely unreliable as a starting QB again. The Niners are in a downward spiral after being on the cusp of going 4-0 coming out of Minnesota, unreal. The Packers should run SF out of the bldg.
Frank Gore: Has been awesome the past 3 weeks with scores of 24, 28, and 22. He will have a tougher time this weekend but certainly should claw together double digits. I don't see him blowing past 20 this week but then again nothing with Gore should surprise you because when he is on he is capable of top5 numbers any week, not a lot of back you can say that about.
Ryan Grant: "Hi, we'd like a RB that offers little downside but also isn't a threat to break 20 most weeks." Yes, you want a Ryan Grant, just take this to the front register and they will ring it up for you…"Thanks!"
Final Score: Green Bay 24…San Fran 13
Seattle at Minnesota (-11) (46)
The Seahawks have been torched in their passing defense for the past 4 games with Kurt Warner accounting for 600 yds and 4 TDs over that span. Romo blew them up for 250/3TDs, and even Stafford put up 200/2TDs although they did pick him off 5 times too. Favre should have no problem throwing the ball on Seattle this weekend and guys like Sidney Rice should prove start able once again.
The Seahawks have had a lot of injuries on defense and offense too so it is hard to gauge how good or bad they are but even the rush defense which is borderline top10 on the season has fallen off the past few weeks. Wells/Hightower ripped off 120/2TDs, Lions rushed for about 100 yds, and Dallas racked up about 100/TD when they faceoff 3 weeks ago.
The Vikings are 6th in rush defense and bottom 10 in pass defense although they have 34 sacks this season and that covers up some of their deficiencies on defense. I imagine the Seahawks will try and throw the ball as much as they can but in the end they simply do not have the horses to beat Minnesota right now who should coast in this game by the 2nd half. Seattle also is a terrible road team over the past several years.
Justin Forsett: I believe Julius Jones is out for right now so enter Forsett. I like Justin a lot and he will have a few decent games if he is allowed to start for awhile but I wouldn't get too excited. Forsett is pretty small IMO and likely will have a hard time if asked to carry the ball much more than 12-15 times a game per week. I do believe he can advance a lot more in the passing game and I expect him to collect 4-5 reception this weekend as Seattle will likely be behind most of the game.
Adrian Peterson: Had a very nice game last week and I called for him to go nuclear. Now nuclear might be more in the 35-45 range but he posted up 28 points last week and was in the top5. Many on here said that he doesn't do as ell against Detroit but the reality of the situation was that he had a soft defense he was facing no matter what. I try and explain this in poker terms as it's a great analogy. Having ADP or a similar back is like having pocket AAces or pocket KKings, you might not win 100% of the time but you have the highest percentage to do the most damage with these hole cards. And again this week ADP should have the advantage.
Final Score: Minnesota 28…Seattle 20
Washington at Dallas (-11) (41.5)
Let's start with the Washington rush defense vs the Dallas rushing attack which has been invisible for over a month. Washington is ranked 24th against the rush but the difference between them and other teams that are ranked even 10 spots higher is very little. Washington has 2 very interesting stats that I think forces folks to look at them just a little bit different. 1st of all the Skins are only allowing about a half a TD per game meaning they have only given up 5 rushing TDs on the season where as most of the other teams ranked around them have allowed about twice as many. But if that stat means nothing than look at the amount of first downs they have given up on the ground…46. Most teams around them have allowed between 60-65 first downs on the ground this season so that tells me that they are a little better at rush defense than some might think so this isn't a slam dunk for Dallas and their running game to get back on track.
Would you believe the Skins rank 1st in pass defense? I'm not kidding you, they only allow 160 yds per game passing. Maybe instead of firing Jim Zorn they simply they need a better OC in the off season. Who is their DC…Greg Blache? 160 and not quite a TD per game…Dallas is going to have their hands full this weekend and in fact this spread is a joke. The Dallas spread is always more than it should be as too many Dallas fans bet their team every week plus their "America's Team" so that spread probably is a good 3.5-4.5 points slanted to them every week over what it should be.
Dallas rush defense is 10th and they give up about 100 and .5 TDs a week. I have been impressed with the Dallas rush defense for most of the season and I anticipate that they can keep Ladell Betts bottled up this weekend. Dallas is 18th against the pass and part of a large band of teams from Philly at about 10 down to Atlanta at 27/28 where there isn't a whole lot of difference form week to week amongst those teams. If you have a good strong QB play him, if not than find another team to exploit. Campbell will be avg in this game. Maybe the point spread isn't a joke as I can't see Washington scraping together a ton of points but still 11 is a lot. This is likely going to be a low scoring affair.
Final Score: Dallas 20…Washington 16
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11.5) (51)
Tampa Bay came within a few plays of notching their 2nd victory in a row for the season. Josh Freeman is giving them confidence and he looks like a leader when he is out there. Freeman has great size and to me looks a little like a young Steve McNair although I am not getting a lot of folks that agree with me just yet. While this season is a total disaster for the Bucs, I can see Freeman as a building block for this offense and possibly someone for them to build around for the future.
The Bucs on paper are not going to match up with New Orleans very well so you can save the energy of running a lot of numbers here. The Saints are going thru what a lot of teams who are undefeated do and that is they play almost like they are waiting to take a loss and get it out of their system. Very few teams want to win all their games because they know the unlikelihood of going 19-0 is pretty rare. The Saints were without Darren Sharper last week and they might want to rest him again this week.
Pierre Thomas: Terrible game last week but I would look for him to rebound as the Bucs have been pretty meh on rush defense. 3 of the last 4 weeks they have given up 250/3TDs to Carolina, 140/TD to Green Bay, and about 200/TD last week to Miami. If New Orleans just runs the ball could win this game handily.
All Bucs RBs: Cadillac is avg 8 ppg over the last 5 weeks, and Ward 5 ppg over the same stretch. Ward is a total bust for the year and Cadillac seems to be about 50 yds and a TD and that is deemed pretty good for him lately. Look elsewhere despite the giving spirit of the Saints rush defense lately.
Final Score: New Orleans 38…Tampa Bay 17
Arizona at St Louis (+9) (47)
Fortunately for Arizona and unfortunately for the Rams their strengths and weaknesses favor the Cardinals big time. The Cards are ranked 30th on pass defense and there are many factors that play into that as teams fall behind to them and have to try and catch up but the fact is they are soft against the pass but St Louis doesn't really have the personnel to take it to Arizona and test that secondary for themselves.
The Rams are decent at running the football , however the Cards are ranked #8 against the run even if you don't believe they are world beaters at stopping the run. Where the Cards have a major advantage is in their passing game which ranks 5th and the Rams are 25th against the pass. And the Cards rank 31st in rush offense but St Louis is 28th against the run so they might find some running room this week.
Beanie Wells: Had 80+ and 2 TDs last week; are we seeing him take over in terms of carries per game? Hightower is still the clear favorite in terms of catching the ball. St Louis is soft and if you want a sneaky play maybe Beanie Wells is the answer this week as Arizona should feel right at home in St Louis where Kurt Warner has played many games as a Ram and as a Cardinal.
Steve Jackson: Top10 candidate this week.
Final Score: Arizona 34…St Louis 17
NY Jets at New England (-10.5) (45)
This game is going to come down to a couple factors. The first is this…can the #1 pass defense in the NFL which the Jets currently are…can that pass defense keep Brady and his crew at bay for awhile this weekend? My money is on Brady obviously but it should be interesting to watch how the Pats deal with how they lost the football game last week. This battle is basically the football game in a nutshell. Can Ryan put heat on Brady?
The rest are middle of the road rush defenses on both sides. The Jets are #1 at rushing the football too I should add. #1 in rushing offense, #1 in pass defense and they are 4-5??? Oh yeah, Mark Sanchez and their passing offense is pretty subpar right now.
Thomas Jones: Start him and continue riding him although he should be no more than about 12-15 points this week.
Laurence Maroney: Continues to show his inconsistency on a week to week basis. Expect Morris to take over when he returns.
Final Score: New England 24…NY Jets 20
Cincinnati at Oakland (+9.5) (36)
Cinci is on a roll but they sustained a key injury to Cedric Benson that prompted them to sign Larry Johnson. I believe if they have trouble running the ball that they will turn to Palmer to ignite the passing game a little more and I expect an uptick for their passing yds in the coming weeks. The Bengals are solid on defense and rank 2nd is rush defense to only the Steelers who they have gone out and copied.
Bernard Scott has a total of 15 points on the season so to expect a lot form him is a total pipedream IMO. I would avoid the CInci backs this week until we have a better understanding of the Benson injury and also what role if any that Johnson is going to have. Coach Marvin Lewis, is on record as saying that LJ will deactivated any week that Benson is healthy and ready to roll…that doesn't sound good for ny remote LJ owners still out there.
Fargas/Bush/McFadden: Fargas has had double digits every week for a month so he is the best idea of the 3 however none of them are strong plays this week against a CInci rush defense that has been pretty light out all season.
Final Score: Cincinnati 21…Oakland 14
Sidenote: I didn't mention the QB switch for Oakland because I don't think it will really matter much, both are awful.
San Diego at Denver (NL)
Streaks, is how I would look at this game. San Diego has won 4 games in a row? Denver is now 6-3 and has lost those 3 games all in a row over the past few weeks.
LaDainian Tomlinson: The Broncos have been gashed the past 3 weeks allowing 100/TD to Baltimore, 155 to Mendy, and Betts took them for 115/TD a week ago so they are not looking too good right now. LT has scored 4 TDs in the past 3 weeks which is huge for him right now. I believe he will get at least 15-17 carries in this game and should find the end zone. If he can just be good inside the 5 again he is going to make owners happy as Rivers can move the ball thru the air against almost anyone.
Knowshon Moreno: Both Moreno and Bucky have been very pedestrian to non existent for much of the past several weeks. San Diego is on a roll and I don't see how anyone can expect top20 numbers form either of them this week. Neither of them posted great numbers the last time these two teams met earlier this year. Not one of my green lights this week, that's for sure.
Final Score: San Diego 23…Denver 17
Philly at Chicago (+3) (45)
Philly is a mystery to me at this point. They rank in the top 10 against the run and the pass, 9th overall to boot. They are top10 in passing offense and even though they are 23rd in rush defense which means they can run the football when they want as well.
The Bears are a mess right now and Cutler is just completely out of control and throws far too many interceptions right now for them to be competitive week to week.
LeSean McCoy: You are not getting an in his prime Westbrook here, please understand that. He is a rookie and very erratic. Some weeks he will post 15 and you will be happy, other weeks he is going to post 5 and leave you with a warm feeling. I think he will have to find his points with receptions this week.
Matt Forte: 26, 16, and 24 the past 3 weeks but he has had to do it thru the air. 31 targets the past 5 weeks and 17 the past 2 weeks. The Bears are not winning games though so this offensive philosophy might change some over the next few weeks. I think again this week he will have to find his niche in the passing game if he is to have success on Sunday.
Final Score: Philly 20…Chicago 17
Tennessee at Houston (-5) (48)
The Titans have really gotten things turned around in a hurry as they have ripped off 3 quick wins under the leadership of Vince Young . Actually Chris Johnson has opened a can of "whoop there it went" and "lookout!" just about every time he is getting into and out of the hole along the OL. It is the Chris Johnson show until further notice.
Chris Johnson: Will be tested as the Texans have vastly improved on rush defense over the past many weeks but Johnson IMO is still a decent bet to make it to 20 this week, how can anyone bet against him right now?
Slaton/Moats: I think the Moats hype has quieted down some and I expect to see a good healthy does of Slaton this week. If nothing else he should catch a few balls and scrape 12-15 together for most owners. I would leave Moats alone for now.
Final Score: Tennessee 23…Houston 21
Miami at Carolina (-3) (42.5)
The Dolphins sustained a devastating injury this week as Ronnie Brown was placed on IR thus putting an end to any playoff chances that Miami might have been striving for.
On defense Miami is 7th vs rush and 27th vs the pass. Carolina is 4th vs the pass and 25th vs the rush. Carolina and Miami love to run the football and I would normally give a huge plus to Miami but Ronnie Brown is out so that will change the dynamics of the run game for the Phins. One of the big holes in the Miami rush defense though are 10 rushing TDs which for where they are ranked is pretty high. Almost every week they allow a rushing TD so the odds are with Carolina to do well running the football.
The teams rank 3rd and 4th in terms of rushing offense, both teams had good tandems at RB although Miami is running with Ricky solo for now. The key to this game will be if Carolina can exploit the pass defense of Miami. Some teams have done it but lesser QBs like rookie Mark Sanchez were not really able to exploit it the way other teams have done this year. The Jets account for half of Miami's wins which is why I included them.
Ricky Williams: I think without Ronnie Brown that he will struggle. I wrote in detail in the Ricky thread floating around that this guy has failed at almost every level except as a complimentary role to Ronnie where he excelled the past 2 years. But history has shown that when he has been leaned on as a franchise back that sooner or later he fails. Can he do some damage this week? Yes he can but I believe owners would be wiser to trade him while he is worth the most.
DeAngelo Williams: If he is a go tonight and is alright to start then I like him plenty. He was putting on a showcase against Miami in the preseason so perhaps Miami will rise to the occasion and have their eyes glued on Williams but he is so talented that even when defenses know he is coming they have a tough time stopping him. DWill is one of my favorite RBs in the league, I enjoy watching him and I believe he can have a double digit performance this week as long as he gets the touches.
JStew: Over the last 5 weeks he has had totals of 17, 8, 20, 4, and 20…if you believe in trends he should have a tough time hitting double digits this week. He might get a few more touches but this is a big game as both teams need a win to even think about getting in the playoff picture. The winner will get to .500 but I see Stew being pedestrian if DWill is good to go.
Passing match ups: No one should be starting Chad Henne right now or Delhomme for that matter. Jake was was a little better last week as Muhammed spoke out about Carolina getting the ball downfield and it worked. I also believe that if Delhomme is going to throw an interception, might as well be a long pass so it is more like a punt than the short passes where he throws picks this year. None of the Miami receivers are good options although Carolina does allow a 63% completion percentage which is unheard of if you have the 4th ranked passing defense so my gut tells me they allow short passes most of the time so Devone Bess might be the only play for the Phins WRs.
Final Score: Carolina 20…Miami 17
Cleveland at Detroit (-3) (38.5)
The Browns are dead last in passing offense and they rank 26th in rush offense. They are putrid and lucky they already have 1 win on the season. On defense they are 20th against the pass and 30th against the run. Basically they can't move the ball and they can't stop anyone. None of the Browns on offense are good plays no matter who they face.
The Lions are dead last against the pass allowing over 270 yds a game and 20 TDs vs 6 int. They are 19th against the rush and have only allowed 6 rushing TDs for the season. The fact the Browns cannot throw the football means they will not exploit the weakest part of Detroit's defense.
The Lions on offense have Kevin Smith who has been clawing his way for double digits but has not really done much the past few weeks. I see him having a good game this week as the Lions try and notch their 2nd win of the year and in many respects are a much better team than the Browns. I bet if these 2 teams faced each other 10 times that Detroit might win about 7-8 of them. If Calvin Johnson is back healthy then I see a major advantage for Detroit in the passing game.
Cleveland RBs: Pass
Kevin Smith: Should be a potential starter this week for most teams.
Final Score: Detroit 23…Cleveland 13
Buffalo at Jax (-8.5) (42.5)
The Bills fired their OC before the season started, now 10 weeks later they have fired **** Jauron. I know Ralph Wilson is one of the oldest and respected owners in the league but do you really see them landing a Shanahan, Gruden, or Cowher anytime soon? I don't want to put down the entire city of Buffalo and I even own some rental property up there but in all honesty it isn't an attractive city for most folks in the NFL. I do wish them the best in their search, certainly the Bills themselves have rich history and the only team to go to 4 Super Bowls in a row.
But the Bills are a total mess right now and I don't see how they can march into Jax and pull this off, however they did knock the Panthers off a coupel weeks back when I thought they had no chance in that game too. Jax is not a world beater although they typically play better at home.
Buffalo ranks dead last against the run so expect a huge dose of MJD this coming weekend. Buffalo gives up 1.5 TDs per game and 170 yds to boot. The Jags boast the 6th best rushing attack in the league and post about 1.5 TDs a week as well.
The Bills rank 9th against ht epass and although Jax has a decent air attack especially at home, you have to imagine that JDR will try and run his ground game down Buffalo's throat and see if they can stop it which they have not all season.
The Jags are 21st against the run but as I noted last week they rarely allow 100 yd rushers and they seem to be a bend don't break type which frustrates opposing offenses. Jacksonville also ranks 26th against the pass but Buffalo is not very good at exploiting the pass defense of most teams. If Trent is helthy and the new coach calls a few more pass plays to TO, then you might have a game here but I think that is the exception not the rule this week.
Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson: Lynch has been pretty bad along with the entire Bills organization this year. I'm sure he will get some touches but until the passing game takes off there is little to help him and keep defenses honest. Jackson's numbers last week are a little skewed because of the passing TD which you certainly cannot plan on him doing again this week. I wouldn't be excited about either of the this week.
MJD: Should have a big day this week and maybe recapture his #1 spot for the season. Hopefully he doesn't take a knee again at the 1 yd line although you'll get no sympathy points form me as owners have made a killing on this guy all year.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24…Buffalo 14
Pitt at KC (-10) (40)
The Steelers lost to Cinci twice in the same season, wow. Pitt will have a tough time getting a high seed in the playoffs now as they still have to face Baltimore twice which I imagine could be a split.
You know going in that Pitt has a good defense and KC doesn't have a good enough offense to really compete against Pitt. I believe TP is out again with an injury as he re-aggravated an injury from earlier this year.
KC is bottom 10 in almost every phase of the game…rush defense, pass defense, rush offense, and pass offense…this should be a Steeler rout.
Rashard Mendenhall: 2 of his last 3 outings have been real stinkers. Hopefully they get him the ball or at least once they establish the lead they should feed Mendy as they are on the road and want to get out of KC with the victory this weekend. He should have a decent chance for 100 yds and a socre but he is rather inconsistent.
Jamaal Charles: He has a terrible match up this week but boy did he turn some heads last weekend as he racked up over a 100 yds rushing and a TD. He also had 5 targets and I believe 4 receptions in the game so he is a good part of the passing attack as well. While this is going to be a bad week for him, you might be able to scoop him up from an owner that thinks he is sort of meh after this weekend. KC has a decent run schedule down the stretch.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27…Kansas City 14
Indianapolis at Baltimore (PK) (44)
Let's look at Baltimore because they have some real issues stopping the pass. You might say they are ranked 10th against the pass and have allowed 10 TD vs 9 picks…about 200 yds a game so one could post that Manning should have about 200 yds and a TD come Sunday. But if look closer you can see QBs who have had success and they include River 436/2TDs, Brady 258/TD, Palmer 271/TD and 224/TD, and Favre had 278/3TDs. Against the better QBs in the league which Peyton Manning certainly is, the Ravens were not nearly as good as that ranking of 10th would indicate. They have gobbled up the bad QBs but have been exposed by others. I think Peyton will take full advantage of them come Sunday. The Ravens are allowing 8 ppg over the last 3 weeks…just thought I would throw that out there.
Joseph Addai: The Ravens have been in the top5 against the run most of the year but Addai can hurt you in so many different ways. He has had a slew of double digit performances most of the season and many of them in the 15-22 range so I would not be sitting him as he can take 3 or 4 recptions and lengthen out to a nice day for most owners.
Ray Rice: Has really moved to a point where you don't even pay attention to he plays and you just start him. The Colts have been decent against the run lately but it shouldn't matter much on Sunday and when the Ravens do fall behind you can be sure they set up some screens for Rice as he is an excellent receiver for them too.
Final Score: Indy 27…Baltimore 23
Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5) (46)
The Falcons are hurting big time right now as they have come off a pretty bad loss at Carolina and they also have lost the service of Michael Turner for likely the next week or two during a very critical part of the season for Atlanta. The Giants have dropped 4 in a row and are on the brink of a total collapse if they don't right the ship here pretty soon. Both teams are very desperate for a win. Desperation football can sometimes bring out the best in certain players and the Giants' RBs and the running game in general has to "step up" and take charge here.
Atlanta is 26th in rush defense and 28th in pass defense…its amazing that they are even 5-4 right now. Take one of their biggest weapons on offense away and I might be able to understand why this spread is -6.5 for New York who have a healthy dup at RB and Eli Manning to exploit this defense.
New York is 2nd is pass defense although they allow 1.5 TD per game thru the air so don't bench your QB automatically and they also are 13th against the run so teams have found a way to gash them on the ground and then toss it in form short range.
Michael Turner: Won't rule himself out for this week but I cannot imagine he plays with a high ankle sprain and as an owner I hope he rests for a week or two until I need him for the playoffs…aren't you glad I shared that personal team info with you…haha.
Jason Snelling: He was a nice story last week but I assure you that he is no Michael Turner. He was 18/60 on the ground which isn't all that impressive. He might be OK as a stop gap for Turner owners but I am not going to reach for him on the WW nor am I interested in starting him on the road in the Meadowlands.
Can Matt Ryan and the passing game show up this weekend? He has been struggling lately but I would expect with Turner out that you will see a lot of targets for White and Gonzo this week as they try and stay in the game but in all likelihood they are in for a long Sunday.
Final Score: New York 24…Atlanta 17
San Fran at Green Bay (-6.5) (42.5)
SF is near the bottom of passing defenses so expect Green bay to come out throwing it all over the place. It should be a big day for the Green Bay passing game and all their receivers. The Niners are 3rd against the rush and for those saying it is easier to pass the ball, I agree with you but they also are only allowing 3.3 ypc so they are decent against the run, have allowed an avg of .8 rushing TD or almost 1 a game on avg.
Check this out…did you know Green Bay ranks 4th against the run and 6th against the pass? I had to do a double take but it's true!!! With a decent offense how is this team 5-4? Clearly the Pack have the advantage as Alex Smith has shown he is completely unreliable as a starting QB again. The Niners are in a downward spiral after being on the cusp of going 4-0 coming out of Minnesota, unreal. The Packers should run SF out of the bldg.
Frank Gore: Has been awesome the past 3 weeks with scores of 24, 28, and 22. He will have a tougher time this weekend but certainly should claw together double digits. I don't see him blowing past 20 this week but then again nothing with Gore should surprise you because when he is on he is capable of top5 numbers any week, not a lot of back you can say that about.
Ryan Grant: "Hi, we'd like a RB that offers little downside but also isn't a threat to break 20 most weeks." Yes, you want a Ryan Grant, just take this to the front register and they will ring it up for you…"Thanks!"
Final Score: Green Bay 24…San Fran 13
Seattle at Minnesota (-11) (46)
The Seahawks have been torched in their passing defense for the past 4 games with Kurt Warner accounting for 600 yds and 4 TDs over that span. Romo blew them up for 250/3TDs, and even Stafford put up 200/2TDs although they did pick him off 5 times too. Favre should have no problem throwing the ball on Seattle this weekend and guys like Sidney Rice should prove start able once again.
The Seahawks have had a lot of injuries on defense and offense too so it is hard to gauge how good or bad they are but even the rush defense which is borderline top10 on the season has fallen off the past few weeks. Wells/Hightower ripped off 120/2TDs, Lions rushed for about 100 yds, and Dallas racked up about 100/TD when they faceoff 3 weeks ago.
The Vikings are 6th in rush defense and bottom 10 in pass defense although they have 34 sacks this season and that covers up some of their deficiencies on defense. I imagine the Seahawks will try and throw the ball as much as they can but in the end they simply do not have the horses to beat Minnesota right now who should coast in this game by the 2nd half. Seattle also is a terrible road team over the past several years.
Justin Forsett: I believe Julius Jones is out for right now so enter Forsett. I like Justin a lot and he will have a few decent games if he is allowed to start for awhile but I wouldn't get too excited. Forsett is pretty small IMO and likely will have a hard time if asked to carry the ball much more than 12-15 times a game per week. I do believe he can advance a lot more in the passing game and I expect him to collect 4-5 reception this weekend as Seattle will likely be behind most of the game.
Adrian Peterson: Had a very nice game last week and I called for him to go nuclear. Now nuclear might be more in the 35-45 range but he posted up 28 points last week and was in the top5. Many on here said that he doesn't do as ell against Detroit but the reality of the situation was that he had a soft defense he was facing no matter what. I try and explain this in poker terms as it's a great analogy. Having ADP or a similar back is like having pocket AAces or pocket KKings, you might not win 100% of the time but you have the highest percentage to do the most damage with these hole cards. And again this week ADP should have the advantage.
Final Score: Minnesota 28…Seattle 20
Washington at Dallas (-11) (41.5)
Let's start with the Washington rush defense vs the Dallas rushing attack which has been invisible for over a month. Washington is ranked 24th against the rush but the difference between them and other teams that are ranked even 10 spots higher is very little. Washington has 2 very interesting stats that I think forces folks to look at them just a little bit different. 1st of all the Skins are only allowing about a half a TD per game meaning they have only given up 5 rushing TDs on the season where as most of the other teams ranked around them have allowed about twice as many. But if that stat means nothing than look at the amount of first downs they have given up on the ground…46. Most teams around them have allowed between 60-65 first downs on the ground this season so that tells me that they are a little better at rush defense than some might think so this isn't a slam dunk for Dallas and their running game to get back on track.
Would you believe the Skins rank 1st in pass defense? I'm not kidding you, they only allow 160 yds per game passing. Maybe instead of firing Jim Zorn they simply they need a better OC in the off season. Who is their DC…Greg Blache? 160 and not quite a TD per game…Dallas is going to have their hands full this weekend and in fact this spread is a joke. The Dallas spread is always more than it should be as too many Dallas fans bet their team every week plus their "America's Team" so that spread probably is a good 3.5-4.5 points slanted to them every week over what it should be.
Dallas rush defense is 10th and they give up about 100 and .5 TDs a week. I have been impressed with the Dallas rush defense for most of the season and I anticipate that they can keep Ladell Betts bottled up this weekend. Dallas is 18th against the pass and part of a large band of teams from Philly at about 10 down to Atlanta at 27/28 where there isn't a whole lot of difference form week to week amongst those teams. If you have a good strong QB play him, if not than find another team to exploit. Campbell will be avg in this game. Maybe the point spread isn't a joke as I can't see Washington scraping together a ton of points but still 11 is a lot. This is likely going to be a low scoring affair.
Final Score: Dallas 20…Washington 16
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11.5) (51)
Tampa Bay came within a few plays of notching their 2nd victory in a row for the season. Josh Freeman is giving them confidence and he looks like a leader when he is out there. Freeman has great size and to me looks a little like a young Steve McNair although I am not getting a lot of folks that agree with me just yet. While this season is a total disaster for the Bucs, I can see Freeman as a building block for this offense and possibly someone for them to build around for the future.
The Bucs on paper are not going to match up with New Orleans very well so you can save the energy of running a lot of numbers here. The Saints are going thru what a lot of teams who are undefeated do and that is they play almost like they are waiting to take a loss and get it out of their system. Very few teams want to win all their games because they know the unlikelihood of going 19-0 is pretty rare. The Saints were without Darren Sharper last week and they might want to rest him again this week.
Pierre Thomas: Terrible game last week but I would look for him to rebound as the Bucs have been pretty meh on rush defense. 3 of the last 4 weeks they have given up 250/3TDs to Carolina, 140/TD to Green Bay, and about 200/TD last week to Miami. If New Orleans just runs the ball could win this game handily.
All Bucs RBs: Cadillac is avg 8 ppg over the last 5 weeks, and Ward 5 ppg over the same stretch. Ward is a total bust for the year and Cadillac seems to be about 50 yds and a TD and that is deemed pretty good for him lately. Look elsewhere despite the giving spirit of the Saints rush defense lately.
Final Score: New Orleans 38…Tampa Bay 17
Arizona at St Louis (+9) (47)
Fortunately for Arizona and unfortunately for the Rams their strengths and weaknesses favor the Cardinals big time. The Cards are ranked 30th on pass defense and there are many factors that play into that as teams fall behind to them and have to try and catch up but the fact is they are soft against the pass but St Louis doesn't really have the personnel to take it to Arizona and test that secondary for themselves.
The Rams are decent at running the football , however the Cards are ranked #8 against the run even if you don't believe they are world beaters at stopping the run. Where the Cards have a major advantage is in their passing game which ranks 5th and the Rams are 25th against the pass. And the Cards rank 31st in rush offense but St Louis is 28th against the run so they might find some running room this week.
Beanie Wells: Had 80+ and 2 TDs last week; are we seeing him take over in terms of carries per game? Hightower is still the clear favorite in terms of catching the ball. St Louis is soft and if you want a sneaky play maybe Beanie Wells is the answer this week as Arizona should feel right at home in St Louis where Kurt Warner has played many games as a Ram and as a Cardinal.
Steve Jackson: Top10 candidate this week.
Final Score: Arizona 34…St Louis 17
NY Jets at New England (-10.5) (45)
This game is going to come down to a couple factors. The first is this…can the #1 pass defense in the NFL which the Jets currently are…can that pass defense keep Brady and his crew at bay for awhile this weekend? My money is on Brady obviously but it should be interesting to watch how the Pats deal with how they lost the football game last week. This battle is basically the football game in a nutshell. Can Ryan put heat on Brady?
The rest are middle of the road rush defenses on both sides. The Jets are #1 at rushing the football too I should add. #1 in rushing offense, #1 in pass defense and they are 4-5??? Oh yeah, Mark Sanchez and their passing offense is pretty subpar right now.
Thomas Jones: Start him and continue riding him although he should be no more than about 12-15 points this week.
Laurence Maroney: Continues to show his inconsistency on a week to week basis. Expect Morris to take over when he returns.
Final Score: New England 24…NY Jets 20
Cincinnati at Oakland (+9.5) (36)
Cinci is on a roll but they sustained a key injury to Cedric Benson that prompted them to sign Larry Johnson. I believe if they have trouble running the ball that they will turn to Palmer to ignite the passing game a little more and I expect an uptick for their passing yds in the coming weeks. The Bengals are solid on defense and rank 2nd is rush defense to only the Steelers who they have gone out and copied.
Bernard Scott has a total of 15 points on the season so to expect a lot form him is a total pipedream IMO. I would avoid the CInci backs this week until we have a better understanding of the Benson injury and also what role if any that Johnson is going to have. Coach Marvin Lewis, is on record as saying that LJ will deactivated any week that Benson is healthy and ready to roll…that doesn't sound good for ny remote LJ owners still out there.
Fargas/Bush/McFadden: Fargas has had double digits every week for a month so he is the best idea of the 3 however none of them are strong plays this week against a CInci rush defense that has been pretty light out all season.
Final Score: Cincinnati 21…Oakland 14
Sidenote: I didn't mention the QB switch for Oakland because I don't think it will really matter much, both are awful.
San Diego at Denver (NL)
Streaks, is how I would look at this game. San Diego has won 4 games in a row? Denver is now 6-3 and has lost those 3 games all in a row over the past few weeks.
LaDainian Tomlinson: The Broncos have been gashed the past 3 weeks allowing 100/TD to Baltimore, 155 to Mendy, and Betts took them for 115/TD a week ago so they are not looking too good right now. LT has scored 4 TDs in the past 3 weeks which is huge for him right now. I believe he will get at least 15-17 carries in this game and should find the end zone. If he can just be good inside the 5 again he is going to make owners happy as Rivers can move the ball thru the air against almost anyone.
Knowshon Moreno: Both Moreno and Bucky have been very pedestrian to non existent for much of the past several weeks. San Diego is on a roll and I don't see how anyone can expect top20 numbers form either of them this week. Neither of them posted great numbers the last time these two teams met earlier this year. Not one of my green lights this week, that's for sure.
Final Score: San Diego 23…Denver 17
Philly at Chicago (+3) (45)
Philly is a mystery to me at this point. They rank in the top 10 against the run and the pass, 9th overall to boot. They are top10 in passing offense and even though they are 23rd in rush defense which means they can run the football when they want as well.
The Bears are a mess right now and Cutler is just completely out of control and throws far too many interceptions right now for them to be competitive week to week.
LeSean McCoy: You are not getting an in his prime Westbrook here, please understand that. He is a rookie and very erratic. Some weeks he will post 15 and you will be happy, other weeks he is going to post 5 and leave you with a warm feeling. I think he will have to find his points with receptions this week.
Matt Forte: 26, 16, and 24 the past 3 weeks but he has had to do it thru the air. 31 targets the past 5 weeks and 17 the past 2 weeks. The Bears are not winning games though so this offensive philosophy might change some over the next few weeks. I think again this week he will have to find his niche in the passing game if he is to have success on Sunday.
Final Score: Philly 20…Chicago 17
Tennessee at Houston (-5) (48)
The Titans have really gotten things turned around in a hurry as they have ripped off 3 quick wins under the leadership of Vince Young . Actually Chris Johnson has opened a can of "whoop there it went" and "lookout!" just about every time he is getting into and out of the hole along the OL. It is the Chris Johnson show until further notice.
Chris Johnson: Will be tested as the Texans have vastly improved on rush defense over the past many weeks but Johnson IMO is still a decent bet to make it to 20 this week, how can anyone bet against him right now?
Slaton/Moats: I think the Moats hype has quieted down some and I expect to see a good healthy does of Slaton this week. If nothing else he should catch a few balls and scrape 12-15 together for most owners. I would leave Moats alone for now.
Final Score: Tennessee 23…Houston 21
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I tried to put a little extra into it this week.
Here's to hoping we both have 16-0 weeks this week, 
I could use the money from the pool. Oh, and good job on the runningback analysis too.
I feel like Flanders, just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
I feel like Flanders, just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Kolby Smith didn't get to touch the ball...single digit carries and no receptions.
