Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Before I jump into the games, I just wanted to thank everyone for what has been I think the best season yet with this thread. I want to emphasize a couple things that were brought to my attention last week.
1. This is not the MOP look at me thread. I understand why people think that way, and I do get full of myself at times, I think most people that would write something like this would encounter the same challenges. But I started this thread and will continue to put it together with the idea that it is really what you all do after I post this that makes it worthwhile. If you have something to say, please post it. Its OK to be completely wrong in this thread, no one is going to hate on you for it. But be humble enough to also admit when you are wrong, something I have learned with this thread over the years.
2. There are no absolutes in football. I’m sure some of you have been astonished by some of the results in games over the past few weeks. Denver losing by 2 TDs to a helpless KC team? Cinci almost pulled of a big upset 2 weeks ago…my point is simply this…always expect the unexpected.
3. If something is not clear, and I don’t respond to a post, please understand that I work a full time job, go to school in pursuit of a degree I never thought I would need, maintain a marriage, fight the dark forces in the Middle East, it’s a full time job and this thread is typically 8-10 pages in MS Word…think about that. I write almost a term paper weekly in this thing…good thing is that all these classes at Miami require term papers…I laugh when the kids groan as they pile these on. If I don’t respond in let’s say 12-24 hours, please feel free to PM me, some of you do and most of you know that I will be happy to respond to anything you need.
Opening rant: Did you think Lane Kiffin was being honest with us after he was fired? I know Al Davis is a scumbag owner, but Kiffin looked terrible after he was fired on NFL Network and ESPN...basically if Davis had said some of those things and they were not true, I would have been screaming bloody murder on the TVs…this is an owner that is not well liked by the media at this point, and I don’t think Kiffin would have jeopardized future jobs had he gone on the offense…instead he looked like a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. I know Davis did him wrong but I also think Davis was speaking the truth when he spoke to the media…however I understand why Kiffin did what he did. Does that makes sense? I didn’t think so either.
How does a team like Philly go ,500 when they only allow 54 yds a game and 2.6 ypc?
Cinci might have to start Fitzpatrick the rest of the year-WOW!!!
Herm Edwards, Marvin Lewis, Brad Childress, and Rod Marinelli should all be fired along with Kiffin and Scot Linehan…just a matter of time.
Let’s jump into the games
KC at Carolina (-9.5) (38)
Overview: Well, well, well, just put the Chiefs at home 0-3 against the undefeated Broncos and low and behold they not only covered but they won the game outright. Logic would tell you that they are starting to pull together and now they take to the road and face the Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, even though they won by 2 TDs last week, they showed a lot of reasons why they were 0-3 to begin with including the inability to really score in the red zone with consistency. The Chiefs are now avg 4.9 ypc, an absolute tribute to the fact they have Larry Johnson, because lord knows that OL ain’t all that. The Panthers are allowing a league avg of about 115 yds a game but they have only allowed 1 TD in 4 games on rush defense.
Carolina is not a great team at home, Panthers fans will tell you that. Carolina is not a great rushing team really only avg 3.6 ypc on the ground but they do try and run the ball, and what I mean is that they are committed on a weekly basis to try and establish the run. The Chiefs are allowing 5.3 ypc and 6 rushing TDs over the 1st 4 weeks…the Panthers are a good bet to score on the ground a couple times this weekend.
This game will really boil down to whether Damon Huard can carry over some of the play he exhibited against Denver last week. I believe he gives the Chiefs the best chance to win when comparing him with Thigpen or Croyle…amazing that Herm can’t see what most of us do.
Larry Johnson: Had such a big week last week, and I think it will be very hard to ever bench LJ, but to project out more than about 75-80 yds and about a 50/50 chance of a TD would be a little optimistic.
JStewart : I like him a lot this week. He has a great match up, no reason to even think about benching him. No thing is sure but you gotta love this match up after the Panthers opened against the likes of Chicago, Minnesota, this week is a very advantageous match up.
DeAngelo Williams: Likely would start him too. Should see action in what I think will be a Carolina blowout.
Final Score: Carolina 27…Kansas City 6
San Diego at Miami(+7) (45)
Overview: The Chargers should really be 4-0…OK at least 3-1, can I we agree on that much? They should be 1-3 just a s easily you say? They were down 15-3 IIRC going into the 4th last week and they end up outscoring the Raiders 25-3 in the final quarter. The Chargers are avg 3.9 ypc and only 108 yds a game on the ground. Miami is coming off the biggest win for them in probably 2-3 seasons. The one thing Miami is decent at is stopping the run. They are giving up only 3.3 ypc and 2 TDs against the run this year. They will have their work cut out for them on Sunday.
The Dolphins are avg 112 yds a game on the ground , a 4.4 ypc avg to boot too. The Bolts are yielding 4.5 ypc but only 1 rushing TD on the season. Miami should find room to run on Sunday if they stick with it. San Diego will this game thru the air, not the ground.
LaDainian Tomlinson: Just keeps scoring TDs, owners can’t be unhappy with him right now…especially when you look and see all the landmines there were in the 1st round in hindsight.
Ronnie Brown: I think it’s a safe bet he doesn’t score 5 TD again this week but I do think he will see some success on the ground. Keep in mind that Ricky Williams will still see action as well.
Ricky Williams: Clearly the 2nd banana to Ronnie Brown, whether the coaches come out and say it or not.
Final Score: San Diego 23…Miami 17
Chicago at Detroit (+3.5) (44.5)
Overview: The Bears will destroy the Lions.
Matt Forte: The Lions are allowing 208 yds a game and 5.6 ypc on the ground, add in 6 rushing TD in 3 games on their defense…JACKPOT for Forte owners. Seriously, 100+ yds and a TD this week should be the low side for this guy. Bears OL is average at best but the Lions are in disarray and just downright pathetic.
Detroit RB: Bench all of them, Chicago can stop the run and I see nothing here for optimism…Smith, Rudi, just bench them this week.
Final Score: Chicago 37…Detroit 14
Seattle at NY Giants(-7) (43.5)
Overview: Both teams are pretty good at stopping the run. I calculated the league avg for rushing on defense and it is 115 yds a game as I eluded to in the Carolina/KC write up. These two teams allow 84(SEA) and 88(NYG) yds each on the ground. I think they both will be bringing their “A” games on Sunday. Here is what you won’t read on all those free sites you like to surf thru and turn your brain into total mush before you fill out those line ups…Seattle looks like they are getting back both Engram and Branch. This will have a major impact on Seattle moving the football, it also will take some pressure off the running game. Now the Seadogs out of sheer desperation have managed a great rushing offense early in the season with a 4.9 ypc avg and would you believe 166 yds on the ground? If they could get the passing game to open up the running game even more, I like their chances on Sunday and I think the +7 you get here is awfully enticing. The numbers don’t lie.
Seattle is not a good road team, no doubt about that, but you have to examine the body of work presently or what we have seen the past 3 weeks. Seattle has struggled but they are in a fairly weak division and a road win here puts them right in the thick of it…also don’t discount the fact Plax is out of the line up…what do the Giants bring to the table in the passing game? Plax really opens up the field for a lot of things.
Julius Jones: I am not going to green light him but I think he will perform admirably on Sunday…I also think he has done enough to make him the RB1 for the remainder of the season.
Maurice Morris: Not 100% yet
TJ Duckett: Will get any goal line work there might be…I could see him scoring on Sunday.
Brandon Jacobs: Not a strong play this week IMO.
Ahmad Bradshaw: With Plax out, I see him getting a few catches OOTB, but its very difficult to start him as he doesn’t seem to have a defined role.
Derrick Ward: The back up to Jacobs, and that is not changing anytime soon.
Final Score: Seattle 21…NY Giants 20
Atlanta at Green Bay
Overview: I have been very critical of the dirty birds the past few weeks but I think this week, even though they have a road game, I see them being able to do some things to Green Bay and I expect a decent contest on Sunday. With the Green bay passing attack possibly being less than 100%, it means that Atlanta will be in this game most of the way and that should mean good things for Turner. Not tooting my horn but we have had Turner dialed in pretty well so far and Atlanta in general. We had some very spirited debate about Turner last week, and I think I did overstep when I said he was a poor choice all the time on the road, that was not intended the way it came out.
Michael Turner: Start him. The Pack are giving up 158(5.2 ypc-OUCH!) and 4 rushing TD thru 4 games. I would expect 75-100+/TD from Turner this week.
Jerious Norwood: This could be the week he busts one of those 60 yard runs…the Bucs were able to do very well on the Pack last week.
Ryan Grant: Atlanta is pretty soft against the run with 131(4.6) and 5 rushing TD so far this year. If Grant is healthy he should be a good play this week, they will be leaning on him.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…Green Bay 21
Washington at Philly (-5.5) (43)
Overview: The Skins are riding high after they beat the mighty Cowboys last week in the final game at Texas Stadium for the 2 teams and their rich history, fun game to watch as a fan. Philly lost a tough game in Chicago…momentum is with the Skins right now.
Clinton Portis: He is having a solid season, anyone that does not think so isn’t watching the games. He is running hard, and I think he really likes the new offense. He seems to be put into situations where he can choose the holes to run through, I felt when Gibbs was there that he sometimes was forced to go certain ways, much like Julius Jones used to complain about Parcells. I was very critical of Portis in the off season, but I like what I see in him. This week will not be easy though as Philly gives up 54 yds a game(NFL best), and 2.6 ypc(NFL best). I also think that even the best teams sometimes don’t shut down everyone every week, that defense has played lights out against the run and they still are only 2-2 record wise. The Skins avg 130+ on the ground. I see Portis scoring, but that isn’t going out on a limb as he does almost every week. I wouldn’t bench Portis although I don’t think he will get to 100 yds rushing either.
Brian Westbrook: Game time decision, obviously if he starts, play him.
Buckhalter: Philly is not the best rushing team, only 3.5 ypc…if you have better options I would look there.
Final Score: Washington 17…Philly 14
Tennessee at Baltimore
Overview: Here we have two teams that love to run the ball, and two defenses that are very stingy against the run. If you like a nasty defensive struggle, look no further as this is your game. The Titans allow 87 yds a game and a 3.7 ypc, Baltimore brings a rush defense that has allowed 69 yds, 3.1 ypc, and ZERO rushing TDs on the season.
You factor in that both passing games are pretty iffy with a rookie on one side, and a group of underwhelming WR/TE on the other…whenever the line is released, I would bet the under on total points.
Chris Johnson: Only RB I would consider. He did have 2 rushing TDs on the mighty Vikes defense. He is worth playing but I would hold back on expectations.
LenDale White: Bench, this is not his game.
Willis McGahee: Cannot stay healthy, monitor this but overall these are bad match ups.
LeMac: I know people are going to want to prognosticate this guy , factor in McGahee might not play much…let me help you…BENCH HIM AGAINST THE TITANS.
Ray Rice: If McGahee is out, I would look for Rice to see some action, but his best asset would be his ability OOTB in catching the ball.
Final Score: Tennessee 2…Baltimore 0, Titans sack Flacco in the end zone with less than a minute left in overtime.
Indy at Houston: Line opened at +5.5, but now it is (+3) (47)
Overview: Both teams are a hot mess right now. The Texans are allowing 160 yds on the ground per game, almost 5 yards a clip, and 7 rushing TDs in just 3 games…PUKE!!! That has to be a league worst, right? Wait a minute, the Colts are allowing almost 200 yds a game on the ground…HOLY MACARONI!!!
Joseph Addai: The Colts are only rushing for 64 yds a game, but I think Addai and that rushing game is going to get healthy quickly on Sunday after the bye week. The Colts are probably one of the few teams that needed a week off to gather themselves for the rest of the season. Addai is a must play this week.
Steve Slaton: Again, no reason to leave this guy on your bench, assuming he is healthy.
Final Score: Indianapolis 37…Houston 24
Tampa Bay at Denver (-3)(48)
Overview: Very simple…with Denver there isn’t much to discuss in the rushing game this week because A-they don’t give the ball to any of their backs for more than about 10 carries a game no matter how they are doing, and B-the Bucs rush defense has not allowed a TD on the season.
Earnest Graham: Big start this week as the Bucs are rushing at a 5 ypc avg and the Broncos allow 5 ypc…the Bucs rush for about 135 a game, and the Broncos allow 135 a game. Just start Graham, the only thing working against him is the air up there.
Warrick Dunn: Worth mentioning although he is not a feature back in TB.
Pittman, Hall, and Young: Seems like Pittman is the only decent play simply because he rushes for TDs…guy is going to break his season high by week 8 at this pace.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19…Denver 17, Bucs shorten the game by pounding the rock.
New England at San Fran (+3)(41.5)
Overview: Honestly, I don’t feel like I have a good read on this game at all. I would really be more interested in what the board had to say about this game. I don’t think you could bench Gore ever this season, so let’s not even entertain that idea, but what about the Pats? Who is starting? Is Bellichek the new Shanahan?
Stats: Pats rush for 3.9 ypc(103 a game), the Niners allow about 125 a game on the ground, 4.0 ypc and about a TD per week. I attribute that to most teams wanting to keep their offense and Martz in the garage as much as possible. The Niners rush for 118 and 4.7 ypc a game, Pats shockingly allow 140 (5.0 ypc) and a TD every week…well they ahdn’t allowed any till Ronnie showed them what Brown can do for you…Oh have I been waiting to unleash that one.
Final Score: San Fran 23…New England 17
Cincinnati at Dallas
Overview: I wouldn’t want to be the Bengals this week…I expect Dallas to come out and destroy them in every facet of the game this week. And with palmer likely out this week too, this is a landslide for Dallas.
Chris Perry: Nope
Cedric Benson: Nope
OJ Simpson: Guilty
MB III: Start him start him start him…if Dallas learned one thing in that game last week it is that they must run the football. They do that, they win, and TO can’t say a word if they were winning football games. They have some cupcakes the next 3 weeks, and I expect big things from this running game. I expect 125 and a score from him this week.
Felix da HouseKat Jones: They have to get the ball into his hands a few times a game because he is just too explosive. In the cupcake games, I can see starting Felix in a flex spot, but its very dicey to try and project out for him.
Final Score: Dallas 50…Cinci 3
Buffalo at Arizona (-1)(44.5)
Overview: The Bills come marching into Arizona with a 4-0 record, and I think they will leave very disappointed this week. The Cards went on the road, lost a close one with the Skins, then last week they fell behind badly to the jets but rallied hard in the 2nd half trying to overcome a 34-0 halftime lead of the Jets…they didn’t fold that is for sure. Glad to see Boldin is going to be OK, although I think he might miss this week, not sure how you can play a guy after that hit he sustained last week.
Marshawn Lynch: You must start him every week, no reason not to.
Fred Jackson: Looking good when on the field, but I expect him to be quiet this weekend.
Edge: had a decent game last week, very middle of the pack at best most of the time now.
Hightower: The Bills rushing defense is kind of neutral with 101 a game and a 4.0 ypc avg...but he has a decent shot to hit paydirt this week.
Final Score: Arizona 24…Buffalo 17
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Overview: Steelers come into this game pretty gimpy. Parker is out, Mendenhall is out, their OL has been exposed the past 2 weeks, I think they are in for a rough game this weekend. Too bad Big Ben has been gimpy too, they have not really taken to the air much.
MeWelde, Najeh, Russell: Bench them all, although if moore is actually healthy I like him a little more than the rest because of OOTB touches…but he had 8/13 on the ground last IIRC, not exactly inspiring.
MJD: Big disappointment last week. Probably not a great start this week in what will be a low scoring affair.
Fred Taylor: Meh…
Final Score: Jacksonville 14…Pittsburgh 13
Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)(46.5)
Overview: This could be the nail in the coffin for Brad Childress, I don’t think they can come back form a 1-4 start, and I think New Orleans will be happy to take to the air and pass all over them this week in the Superdome. Drew brees is the best Quarterback in the National Football League bar none right now. Guy has both starting WR out and his #1TE out, doesn’t matter, this guy doesn’t complain, he’s a great leader, and any team that passed on him when he was a FA is kicking themselves right about now. I like the Saints in this game, although the Vikes could win if they can gt a dominating performance from ADP, something that has not really happened yet, he has not gone nuk-u-lar yet.
Adrian Peterson: Odds are with him that he has a good game. Will they continue to run the ball when they fall behind, that is the question.
Reggie Bush: might not run for a lot but he should get 5-6 catches this week.
Deuce: Seems to be getting into the flow of the offense, but this is not his week, the Vikes only give up 2.9 ypc on the ground.
Final Score: New Orleans 28…Minnesota 20
Good Luck this week everyone!!!
1. This is not the MOP look at me thread. I understand why people think that way, and I do get full of myself at times, I think most people that would write something like this would encounter the same challenges. But I started this thread and will continue to put it together with the idea that it is really what you all do after I post this that makes it worthwhile. If you have something to say, please post it. Its OK to be completely wrong in this thread, no one is going to hate on you for it. But be humble enough to also admit when you are wrong, something I have learned with this thread over the years.
2. There are no absolutes in football. I’m sure some of you have been astonished by some of the results in games over the past few weeks. Denver losing by 2 TDs to a helpless KC team? Cinci almost pulled of a big upset 2 weeks ago…my point is simply this…always expect the unexpected.
3. If something is not clear, and I don’t respond to a post, please understand that I work a full time job, go to school in pursuit of a degree I never thought I would need, maintain a marriage, fight the dark forces in the Middle East, it’s a full time job and this thread is typically 8-10 pages in MS Word…think about that. I write almost a term paper weekly in this thing…good thing is that all these classes at Miami require term papers…I laugh when the kids groan as they pile these on. If I don’t respond in let’s say 12-24 hours, please feel free to PM me, some of you do and most of you know that I will be happy to respond to anything you need.
Opening rant: Did you think Lane Kiffin was being honest with us after he was fired? I know Al Davis is a scumbag owner, but Kiffin looked terrible after he was fired on NFL Network and ESPN...basically if Davis had said some of those things and they were not true, I would have been screaming bloody murder on the TVs…this is an owner that is not well liked by the media at this point, and I don’t think Kiffin would have jeopardized future jobs had he gone on the offense…instead he looked like a kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. I know Davis did him wrong but I also think Davis was speaking the truth when he spoke to the media…however I understand why Kiffin did what he did. Does that makes sense? I didn’t think so either.
How does a team like Philly go ,500 when they only allow 54 yds a game and 2.6 ypc?
Cinci might have to start Fitzpatrick the rest of the year-WOW!!!
Herm Edwards, Marvin Lewis, Brad Childress, and Rod Marinelli should all be fired along with Kiffin and Scot Linehan…just a matter of time.
Let’s jump into the games
KC at Carolina (-9.5) (38)
Overview: Well, well, well, just put the Chiefs at home 0-3 against the undefeated Broncos and low and behold they not only covered but they won the game outright. Logic would tell you that they are starting to pull together and now they take to the road and face the Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, even though they won by 2 TDs last week, they showed a lot of reasons why they were 0-3 to begin with including the inability to really score in the red zone with consistency. The Chiefs are now avg 4.9 ypc, an absolute tribute to the fact they have Larry Johnson, because lord knows that OL ain’t all that. The Panthers are allowing a league avg of about 115 yds a game but they have only allowed 1 TD in 4 games on rush defense.
Carolina is not a great team at home, Panthers fans will tell you that. Carolina is not a great rushing team really only avg 3.6 ypc on the ground but they do try and run the ball, and what I mean is that they are committed on a weekly basis to try and establish the run. The Chiefs are allowing 5.3 ypc and 6 rushing TDs over the 1st 4 weeks…the Panthers are a good bet to score on the ground a couple times this weekend.
This game will really boil down to whether Damon Huard can carry over some of the play he exhibited against Denver last week. I believe he gives the Chiefs the best chance to win when comparing him with Thigpen or Croyle…amazing that Herm can’t see what most of us do.
Larry Johnson: Had such a big week last week, and I think it will be very hard to ever bench LJ, but to project out more than about 75-80 yds and about a 50/50 chance of a TD would be a little optimistic.
JStewart : I like him a lot this week. He has a great match up, no reason to even think about benching him. No thing is sure but you gotta love this match up after the Panthers opened against the likes of Chicago, Minnesota, this week is a very advantageous match up.
DeAngelo Williams: Likely would start him too. Should see action in what I think will be a Carolina blowout.
Final Score: Carolina 27…Kansas City 6
San Diego at Miami(+7) (45)
Overview: The Chargers should really be 4-0…OK at least 3-1, can I we agree on that much? They should be 1-3 just a s easily you say? They were down 15-3 IIRC going into the 4th last week and they end up outscoring the Raiders 25-3 in the final quarter. The Chargers are avg 3.9 ypc and only 108 yds a game on the ground. Miami is coming off the biggest win for them in probably 2-3 seasons. The one thing Miami is decent at is stopping the run. They are giving up only 3.3 ypc and 2 TDs against the run this year. They will have their work cut out for them on Sunday.
The Dolphins are avg 112 yds a game on the ground , a 4.4 ypc avg to boot too. The Bolts are yielding 4.5 ypc but only 1 rushing TD on the season. Miami should find room to run on Sunday if they stick with it. San Diego will this game thru the air, not the ground.
LaDainian Tomlinson: Just keeps scoring TDs, owners can’t be unhappy with him right now…especially when you look and see all the landmines there were in the 1st round in hindsight.
Ronnie Brown: I think it’s a safe bet he doesn’t score 5 TD again this week but I do think he will see some success on the ground. Keep in mind that Ricky Williams will still see action as well.
Ricky Williams: Clearly the 2nd banana to Ronnie Brown, whether the coaches come out and say it or not.
Final Score: San Diego 23…Miami 17
Chicago at Detroit (+3.5) (44.5)
Overview: The Bears will destroy the Lions.
Matt Forte: The Lions are allowing 208 yds a game and 5.6 ypc on the ground, add in 6 rushing TD in 3 games on their defense…JACKPOT for Forte owners. Seriously, 100+ yds and a TD this week should be the low side for this guy. Bears OL is average at best but the Lions are in disarray and just downright pathetic.
Detroit RB: Bench all of them, Chicago can stop the run and I see nothing here for optimism…Smith, Rudi, just bench them this week.
Final Score: Chicago 37…Detroit 14
Seattle at NY Giants(-7) (43.5)
Overview: Both teams are pretty good at stopping the run. I calculated the league avg for rushing on defense and it is 115 yds a game as I eluded to in the Carolina/KC write up. These two teams allow 84(SEA) and 88(NYG) yds each on the ground. I think they both will be bringing their “A” games on Sunday. Here is what you won’t read on all those free sites you like to surf thru and turn your brain into total mush before you fill out those line ups…Seattle looks like they are getting back both Engram and Branch. This will have a major impact on Seattle moving the football, it also will take some pressure off the running game. Now the Seadogs out of sheer desperation have managed a great rushing offense early in the season with a 4.9 ypc avg and would you believe 166 yds on the ground? If they could get the passing game to open up the running game even more, I like their chances on Sunday and I think the +7 you get here is awfully enticing. The numbers don’t lie.
Seattle is not a good road team, no doubt about that, but you have to examine the body of work presently or what we have seen the past 3 weeks. Seattle has struggled but they are in a fairly weak division and a road win here puts them right in the thick of it…also don’t discount the fact Plax is out of the line up…what do the Giants bring to the table in the passing game? Plax really opens up the field for a lot of things.
Julius Jones: I am not going to green light him but I think he will perform admirably on Sunday…I also think he has done enough to make him the RB1 for the remainder of the season.
Maurice Morris: Not 100% yet
TJ Duckett: Will get any goal line work there might be…I could see him scoring on Sunday.
Brandon Jacobs: Not a strong play this week IMO.
Ahmad Bradshaw: With Plax out, I see him getting a few catches OOTB, but its very difficult to start him as he doesn’t seem to have a defined role.
Derrick Ward: The back up to Jacobs, and that is not changing anytime soon.
Final Score: Seattle 21…NY Giants 20
Atlanta at Green Bay
Overview: I have been very critical of the dirty birds the past few weeks but I think this week, even though they have a road game, I see them being able to do some things to Green Bay and I expect a decent contest on Sunday. With the Green bay passing attack possibly being less than 100%, it means that Atlanta will be in this game most of the way and that should mean good things for Turner. Not tooting my horn but we have had Turner dialed in pretty well so far and Atlanta in general. We had some very spirited debate about Turner last week, and I think I did overstep when I said he was a poor choice all the time on the road, that was not intended the way it came out.
Michael Turner: Start him. The Pack are giving up 158(5.2 ypc-OUCH!) and 4 rushing TD thru 4 games. I would expect 75-100+/TD from Turner this week.
Jerious Norwood: This could be the week he busts one of those 60 yard runs…the Bucs were able to do very well on the Pack last week.
Ryan Grant: Atlanta is pretty soft against the run with 131(4.6) and 5 rushing TD so far this year. If Grant is healthy he should be a good play this week, they will be leaning on him.
Final Score: Atlanta 24…Green Bay 21
Washington at Philly (-5.5) (43)
Overview: The Skins are riding high after they beat the mighty Cowboys last week in the final game at Texas Stadium for the 2 teams and their rich history, fun game to watch as a fan. Philly lost a tough game in Chicago…momentum is with the Skins right now.
Clinton Portis: He is having a solid season, anyone that does not think so isn’t watching the games. He is running hard, and I think he really likes the new offense. He seems to be put into situations where he can choose the holes to run through, I felt when Gibbs was there that he sometimes was forced to go certain ways, much like Julius Jones used to complain about Parcells. I was very critical of Portis in the off season, but I like what I see in him. This week will not be easy though as Philly gives up 54 yds a game(NFL best), and 2.6 ypc(NFL best). I also think that even the best teams sometimes don’t shut down everyone every week, that defense has played lights out against the run and they still are only 2-2 record wise. The Skins avg 130+ on the ground. I see Portis scoring, but that isn’t going out on a limb as he does almost every week. I wouldn’t bench Portis although I don’t think he will get to 100 yds rushing either.
Brian Westbrook: Game time decision, obviously if he starts, play him.
Buckhalter: Philly is not the best rushing team, only 3.5 ypc…if you have better options I would look there.
Final Score: Washington 17…Philly 14
Tennessee at Baltimore
Overview: Here we have two teams that love to run the ball, and two defenses that are very stingy against the run. If you like a nasty defensive struggle, look no further as this is your game. The Titans allow 87 yds a game and a 3.7 ypc, Baltimore brings a rush defense that has allowed 69 yds, 3.1 ypc, and ZERO rushing TDs on the season.
You factor in that both passing games are pretty iffy with a rookie on one side, and a group of underwhelming WR/TE on the other…whenever the line is released, I would bet the under on total points.
Chris Johnson: Only RB I would consider. He did have 2 rushing TDs on the mighty Vikes defense. He is worth playing but I would hold back on expectations.
LenDale White: Bench, this is not his game.
Willis McGahee: Cannot stay healthy, monitor this but overall these are bad match ups.
LeMac: I know people are going to want to prognosticate this guy , factor in McGahee might not play much…let me help you…BENCH HIM AGAINST THE TITANS.
Ray Rice: If McGahee is out, I would look for Rice to see some action, but his best asset would be his ability OOTB in catching the ball.
Final Score: Tennessee 2…Baltimore 0, Titans sack Flacco in the end zone with less than a minute left in overtime.
Indy at Houston: Line opened at +5.5, but now it is (+3) (47)
Overview: Both teams are a hot mess right now. The Texans are allowing 160 yds on the ground per game, almost 5 yards a clip, and 7 rushing TDs in just 3 games…PUKE!!! That has to be a league worst, right? Wait a minute, the Colts are allowing almost 200 yds a game on the ground…HOLY MACARONI!!!
Joseph Addai: The Colts are only rushing for 64 yds a game, but I think Addai and that rushing game is going to get healthy quickly on Sunday after the bye week. The Colts are probably one of the few teams that needed a week off to gather themselves for the rest of the season. Addai is a must play this week.
Steve Slaton: Again, no reason to leave this guy on your bench, assuming he is healthy.
Final Score: Indianapolis 37…Houston 24
Tampa Bay at Denver (-3)(48)
Overview: Very simple…with Denver there isn’t much to discuss in the rushing game this week because A-they don’t give the ball to any of their backs for more than about 10 carries a game no matter how they are doing, and B-the Bucs rush defense has not allowed a TD on the season.
Earnest Graham: Big start this week as the Bucs are rushing at a 5 ypc avg and the Broncos allow 5 ypc…the Bucs rush for about 135 a game, and the Broncos allow 135 a game. Just start Graham, the only thing working against him is the air up there.
Warrick Dunn: Worth mentioning although he is not a feature back in TB.
Pittman, Hall, and Young: Seems like Pittman is the only decent play simply because he rushes for TDs…guy is going to break his season high by week 8 at this pace.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19…Denver 17, Bucs shorten the game by pounding the rock.
New England at San Fran (+3)(41.5)
Overview: Honestly, I don’t feel like I have a good read on this game at all. I would really be more interested in what the board had to say about this game. I don’t think you could bench Gore ever this season, so let’s not even entertain that idea, but what about the Pats? Who is starting? Is Bellichek the new Shanahan?
Stats: Pats rush for 3.9 ypc(103 a game), the Niners allow about 125 a game on the ground, 4.0 ypc and about a TD per week. I attribute that to most teams wanting to keep their offense and Martz in the garage as much as possible. The Niners rush for 118 and 4.7 ypc a game, Pats shockingly allow 140 (5.0 ypc) and a TD every week…well they ahdn’t allowed any till Ronnie showed them what Brown can do for you…Oh have I been waiting to unleash that one.
Final Score: San Fran 23…New England 17
Cincinnati at Dallas
Overview: I wouldn’t want to be the Bengals this week…I expect Dallas to come out and destroy them in every facet of the game this week. And with palmer likely out this week too, this is a landslide for Dallas.
Chris Perry: Nope
Cedric Benson: Nope
OJ Simpson: Guilty
MB III: Start him start him start him…if Dallas learned one thing in that game last week it is that they must run the football. They do that, they win, and TO can’t say a word if they were winning football games. They have some cupcakes the next 3 weeks, and I expect big things from this running game. I expect 125 and a score from him this week.
Felix da HouseKat Jones: They have to get the ball into his hands a few times a game because he is just too explosive. In the cupcake games, I can see starting Felix in a flex spot, but its very dicey to try and project out for him.
Final Score: Dallas 50…Cinci 3
Buffalo at Arizona (-1)(44.5)
Overview: The Bills come marching into Arizona with a 4-0 record, and I think they will leave very disappointed this week. The Cards went on the road, lost a close one with the Skins, then last week they fell behind badly to the jets but rallied hard in the 2nd half trying to overcome a 34-0 halftime lead of the Jets…they didn’t fold that is for sure. Glad to see Boldin is going to be OK, although I think he might miss this week, not sure how you can play a guy after that hit he sustained last week.
Marshawn Lynch: You must start him every week, no reason not to.
Fred Jackson: Looking good when on the field, but I expect him to be quiet this weekend.
Edge: had a decent game last week, very middle of the pack at best most of the time now.
Hightower: The Bills rushing defense is kind of neutral with 101 a game and a 4.0 ypc avg...but he has a decent shot to hit paydirt this week.
Final Score: Arizona 24…Buffalo 17
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Overview: Steelers come into this game pretty gimpy. Parker is out, Mendenhall is out, their OL has been exposed the past 2 weeks, I think they are in for a rough game this weekend. Too bad Big Ben has been gimpy too, they have not really taken to the air much.
MeWelde, Najeh, Russell: Bench them all, although if moore is actually healthy I like him a little more than the rest because of OOTB touches…but he had 8/13 on the ground last IIRC, not exactly inspiring.
MJD: Big disappointment last week. Probably not a great start this week in what will be a low scoring affair.
Fred Taylor: Meh…
Final Score: Jacksonville 14…Pittsburgh 13
Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)(46.5)
Overview: This could be the nail in the coffin for Brad Childress, I don’t think they can come back form a 1-4 start, and I think New Orleans will be happy to take to the air and pass all over them this week in the Superdome. Drew brees is the best Quarterback in the National Football League bar none right now. Guy has both starting WR out and his #1TE out, doesn’t matter, this guy doesn’t complain, he’s a great leader, and any team that passed on him when he was a FA is kicking themselves right about now. I like the Saints in this game, although the Vikes could win if they can gt a dominating performance from ADP, something that has not really happened yet, he has not gone nuk-u-lar yet.
Adrian Peterson: Odds are with him that he has a good game. Will they continue to run the ball when they fall behind, that is the question.
Reggie Bush: might not run for a lot but he should get 5-6 catches this week.
Deuce: Seems to be getting into the flow of the offense, but this is not his week, the Vikes only give up 2.9 ypc on the ground.
Final Score: New Orleans 28…Minnesota 20
Good Luck this week everyone!!!
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- That's all I got. Great post as usual MoP! 
... got a feeling the RBBC is scrapped this week to let Pittman get his.
