Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
In a vacuum, if that was the only pick, sure. But we're talking about manipulating the draft a bit as there are subsequent picks involved.
But yes, this has turned into something excessive in a Najee Harris thread.
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RB Najee Harris, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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But yes, this has turned into something excessive in a Najee Harris thread.
jm192
Footballguy
He says they don't buy into the belief that running backs have less value and that's why they drafted Harris.
But you had one of the two best backs in the league and wouldn't pay him. Which, fine, I don't blame you. But it's weird to turn around and draft a RB in the 1st.
Shawnky
Footballguy
You really hate Harris. I guess everyone is entitled to an opinion. I think he’s going to be a monster.
I certainly don't hate the person. He seems like a good guy.
I really hate the pick for the Steelers. Running backs don't contribute much to team success and have short careers.
As a player in fantasy, I hate his landing spot. The Steelers line was 31st in run blocking last year. They have a huge downgrade at LT. Even if you are optimistic, you have to expect terrible run blocking. I would be shocked if he averages 4.0 ypc. Given the team makeup they are still going to be very pass heavy. His volume won't be what people think.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Good news is Pitt has historically got their RBs involved in the passing game. Najee brings a nice skillset to that area with route running ability and good hands. Even if the run blocking is bad he should have a pretty high floor especially in PPR.
If his run blocking is poor he may not have much involvement on passing downs. With this line, you can't afford bad blocking from your rb
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
Much cheaper to pay a RB rookie contract and lock him up for 4, if not 5 years paying him a fraction of what it would cost to keep that veteran RB who had already seen a 400 touch season. Once they hit that touch total, their days are numbered and never worth the money to keep them.
Finding a 220-230 lb RB that can catch seems to be the Steelers MO. It's a solid move to me knowing that Ben is almost done. If they are going to make a run at a championship with Ben, it's now or never. WRs are in place and that offense has always gone through a workhorse RB when it works right.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
His Instagram profile picture is him smoking something. This seems like an odd choice for anyone, much less a professional athlete.
This is an interesting twist. Typically I say make a combined draft board and take BPA according to your board and don't worry about positions because the whole point is to find starters. If you force a position out of "need" but it's a lesser player in your eyes and he doesn't hit while the better player in your eyes does (as you expected) it's a lot harder to take. Plus even if you get a guy in a position of strength if he hits you can move him easier to fill a need.
However in your spot it seems you have a few players in the same tier and are trying to manipulate to make sure you can as many as you can in that tier. I still wonder if it's still better just to rank them and take your highest ranked guy and do the same on down the line for the subsequent picks. Kind of like a don't overthink this approach.
I am in a similar spot at 1.03 and 1.07 with the same guy at 1.04-1.06 in a SF/IDP league. I am guessing two QB's go 1.01 and 1.02 and doubt the other guy goes two QB's in the next three so do I take the QB I like best or take the other guy I like best (Harris for me) and then take whichever QB is left (the guy between my picks will take a QB but I doubt he would take 2). Such a fun time of year.
"I think as a defender, we're most excited to have him," Heyward said of Harris. "Having a guy like that that can tote the rock 30 to 40 times a game really puts an ease for the defense. He can do multiple things. I think the investment in our offense this offseason has been huge."
barackdhouse
Footballguy
oh ####
"I think as a defender, we're most excited to have him," Heyward said of Harris. "Having a guy like that that can tote the rock 30 to 40 times a game really puts an ease for the defense. He can do multiple things. I think the investment in our offense this offseason has been huge."
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I nominate Heyward to be the next player/coach and let him call the plays. Just try to mix in some PA to Claypool 10 times a game and I'm happy.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He will get the opportunities but either the Steelers run blocking will need to significantly improve or Najee will need to be a much better after contact runner than he was in college to win OROY.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
IDK the answer but these advanced stats make me curious:
Anyway, suffice to say the push and holes he was accustomed to seeing at Alabama won't exist in the NFL. But he was a top 3 can't miss h.s. prospect and did everything expected of him; he really doesn't have any major concerns in his makeup. He's big, he's a mismatch for any LB trying to cover him, and he's playing for a HC who loves to lean heavily on his RB1. The O-line is def not great but given the pedestrian competition in the RB room I don't see any reason he shouldn't be a top 10 RB simply on volume.
- 962 yards after contact, third-most in college football (PFF)
- 69 missed tackles forced, second-most in college football (PFF)
- 3.26 yards after contact per attempt, a surprisingly low 89th in college football (PFF)
- Only 25 career carries of 20-plus yards
- 22 broken tackles on 43 catches this year
- Just one drop in 2020, just one fumble lost in his entire college career
Anyway, suffice to say the push and holes he was accustomed to seeing at Alabama won't exist in the NFL. But he was a top 3 can't miss h.s. prospect and did everything expected of him; he really doesn't have any major concerns in his makeup. He's big, he's a mismatch for any LB trying to cover him, and he's playing for a HC who loves to lean heavily on his RB1. The O-line is def not great but given the pedestrian competition in the RB room I don't see any reason he shouldn't be a top 10 RB simply on volume.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sportsline said of 92 college RBs measured last year, Harris was 22nd in yards before contact per carry and 42nd in yards after contact per carry. He was very skeptical about Harris ability to succeed behind the Steelers offensive line.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He definitely has 2 concerns. His age both in terms of dynasty outlook and that he was just older and more developed than his opponents the last 2 years. The other is a seeming lack of speed/burst/big play ability. He didn’t test either so his athleticism is a total mystery. He’s got a lot going for him but he’s got a couple areas of concern. Purely from an a numbers based approach, he’s not the overwhelming prospect that I think he’s being classified as for dynasty.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I see. I think this is PFF metric.
I did a quick search after asking the question, didnt find the answer but I did find something talking about ETN being number one in this metric in 2019 and 2020 FWIW.
ETA- Thanks for answering the question in regards to Harris.
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I think Harris is closer to a JAG than a 1st round type RB talent, and the first three points above illustrate that. 2/3 points are accumulation stats, which the RB of the best team in CFB will accumulate. The 3rd is an efficiency metric, which doesn't look good.
Najee Harris was the overall #2 player in this HS class and #1 RB. He was all world then. I think he peaked early at Bama (played his true freshman season), his potential has been hit for a couple years now. Steelers drafted a plodder. Similar to James Conner, he'll get stats, but they won't be efficient, especially in the current version of the Steelers' Offense.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
The OL will have 3 different starters and hopefully a healthier Decastro. We'll see if its an upgrade but the Steelers think so. They made no reported effort to retain two of them. Pouncey retired and most think the Center they drafted is an upgrade.
I've mentioned in this thread before the Steelers began last year with Snell running for 100 against the Giants after Conner got pulled early dealing with an injury. That's Benny Snail folks. Then from weeks 2-7 Conner had 3 different 100 yard rushing games, was RB3 in rushing yardage in the NFL during this timeframe, averaged close to 5 YPC and then got dinged up and the running game went in the toilet. If the OL was so horrendous how were they doing this? Or was a lack of RB talent the issue? Again I know what the Steelers think.
The top 3 drafted RB's in FFPC in the month of may are CMC, Dalvin and Barkley. Did those teams suddenly get great run blocking OL's? And oh the 4th RB chosen is Kamara whose career high is 956 yards rushing.
If you are viewing Najee's value just as a runner you are missing a large part of the equation.
I've mentioned in this thread before the Steelers began last year with Snell running for 100 against the Giants after Conner got pulled early dealing with an injury. That's Benny Snail folks. Then from weeks 2-7 Conner had 3 different 100 yard rushing games, was RB3 in rushing yardage in the NFL during this timeframe, averaged close to 5 YPC and then got dinged up and the running game went in the toilet. If the OL was so horrendous how were they doing this? Or was a lack of RB talent the issue? Again I know what the Steelers think.
The top 3 drafted RB's in FFPC in the month of may are CMC, Dalvin and Barkley. Did those teams suddenly get great run blocking OL's? And oh the 4th RB chosen is Kamara whose career high is 956 yards rushing.
If you are viewing Najee's value just as a runner you are missing a large part of the equation.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Its a bit chicken and egg trying to figure out if the running game is mostly a product of the offensive line and supporting cast or if it is on the RB to make it go. I have been trying to figure that out for decades now and I am still not sure if one is more important than the other.
FBO has those offensive line metrics that I have always found interesting in how they separate yards before contact (giving that credit to the offensive line) and yards after contract (giving that credit to the RB). FBO is subscriber content now (grumble) but I did find this talking about from a quick search:
According to this the Steelers have been a very good pass blocking line but run blocking not as good.
If the offensive line is as bad as people are saying, then maybe a way to overcome that is by having a RB who is a tackle breaking machine, but as we have talked about recently, that does not seem to be something that Harris excels at. In my personal opinion from watching Harris I think he runs too upright. He makes himself more of a target than I think he should and you need leverage from running low behind your pads to gain yards after contact. This is just my casual observation but those metrics do back up my concern about it as well.
The main thing that bothers me about the Steelers picking Harris is that I think they should have drafted ETN instead. They could have but they chose Harris. In what way is Harris better than ETN? I do not think he is. They messed up with that move.
Overwhelmingly running sucsess is a function of the blocking and system. It is why handcuffs are valuable at the RB position in fantasy.
You can use metrics or you can just use your eyes if you watched the Steelers play, but either way the run blocking was terrible.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I was surprised they didn't go OL early in the draft instead of mostly defense.
I did and apparently so did Steelers when they determined lack of healthy RB talent was main issue.
I think Harris is better then ETN in every single capacity other then pure speed.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Did you know Harris was the first offensive player they chose in round one in over 10 years?
But I'm not sure what you are talking about here, their first 3 picks were on offensive side and they took an OL before taking a defensive player.
ETA-they took two OL before taking a defensive player.
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And I think Harris is the safest fantasy rookie for redraft and it's not remotely close.
To add to this if Harris turns out to be no better then say James Conner in talent I still think he'll be a top 10 RB so long as he's healthy. That's why I think he's safe for early production. Considering his age and way I think they are gong to run him into the ground his dynasty long term prospects is a bit murkier. I did take him at 1.1 in two leagues and I struggled with the decision and still have a degree of buyers remorse over it though that's for his longer term projections.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
That might not be saying much.
ETA: . I don't play redraft, but if were, I wouldn't anywhere near one of these rookie RBs except maybe Williams if he jumps Gordon. Outside chance Sermon.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah you are on Pluto and I'm on Mars as far as how much we disagree about that then.menobrown said:
Green was my top choice for C prospects and the LT prospects were pretty much nonexistent when they picked in the 2nd.JohnnyU said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Same. I don’t fault anyone for grinding the film and just thinking Harris is better. That’s actually the normal view now. It’s just every objective measure says ETN is better. Maybe someone could argue size but is there any data that says 6’1” 232 produces better outcomes than 5’10” 215? ETN’s BMI is actually slightly higher. Every advantage people are having Najee has is based on something subjective (better footwork, better vision, in better shape, etc).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I do think Harris is a good RB and he will have a lot of opportunity with the Steelers which will be great for fantasy.
Its perhaps splitting hairs as far as which RB is more valuable in fantasy.
I just think ETN is the more talented RB.
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