RB Nick Chubb, HOU (3 Viewers)

[EBF]

Lots of college prospects have a thread dedicated to them, so I thought we might as well get one started for Nick Chubb. Here's the tale of the tape:

- 5'10 228 pounds

- 4-5 star recruit in 2014

- Georgia 4A state shotput champ in 2014 (55'8"). Also made the finals in the 100m (10.69s) and 200m (21.83s).

- Nike HS combines SPARQ champion at the RB position (4.47 40, 40.8" vertical, 4.10 second short shuttle).

- SEC Freshman of the Year

- First Team All-SEC

- 2014 stats: 186 carries, 1281 yards (6.9 YPC), 12 TDs, 18 catches, 213 yards, 2 TDs

- Currently on a streak of 7 100+ yard rushing games

- Ranks 48th in the country in carries (186), but 12th in long runs (14). Averages a long run on 7.5% of his carries.

- Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBngK7-iNUg

This guy might be my favorite skill prospect in college football. He is a true freshman, but I think he would be a first round pick this year if eligible. He is a physical runner, so let's hope he can avoid the fate of Gurley and Lattimore.

 

[Milkman]

Love the size/speed combo. The highlight reel looks sick. They all do though. Still love how he stays low in the hole and he's a load to bring down.

 

[Faust]

Rotowolrd:

Georgia freshman RB Nick Chubb has been named The SEC Freshman of the Year.
The 5-foot-10, 228-pound Chubb also added First Team Coaches All-SEC honors, as well as being named First Team AP All-SEC. The Bulldogs prospect has rushed for 1,281 yards and 12 touchdowns on 186 carries, while averaging 6.9 yard a carry. Chubb became the 12th Bulldog in history to reach 1,000 yards rushing in a single season.

Source: SEC Sports on Twitter
Dec 10 - 3:26 PM

 

[EBF]

Love the size/speed combo. The highlight reel looks sick. They all do though. Still love how he stays low in the hole and he's a load to bring down.

He's also a very good receiver, which is almost a prerequisite for top FF RBs these days:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=11598465

 

[Faust]

100 days, 100 players: No. 63 Nick Chubb

 

[massraider]

True Freshman?

 

[Faust]

Chubb’s 100-yard streak UGA’s longest since Herschel Walker

 

[starks]

Love the size/speed combo. The highlight reel looks sick. They all do though. Still love how he stays low in the hole and he's a load to bring down.

Tee-hee. Chubb.

 

[tdmills]

He's my #4 overall devy prospect behind Gurley, Gordon, Treadwell. He has everything that you want. I've likened him to a juiced up Ray Rice or Jonathan Stewart and he's EBF's kind of prospect(BMI + speed player). The good news is he has good instincts and it translates.

 

[JohnnyU]

I wouldn't exactly put Gurley injury in the same conversation with Lattimore's injury history.

 

[tdmills]

I wouldn't exactly put Gurley injury in the same conversation with Lattimore's injury history.

True and that was also the 2nd time he tore his ACL within a year.

 

[BigTex]

I like Chubb a lot but don't sleep on Derrick Henry. I can't wait until the both of them are getting more touches.

Tex

 

[Cheesedawg]

Chubb laid the ball on the ground a few times but I feel sure he will clean that up with more experience. There is nothing else not to love about this kid. Great character, too. Humble, team-first attitude. And with Sony Michel there too (another good NFL prospect), they won't have to run him into the ground.

Also, skill players get a great education in pro-style offense by playing at UGA under Mike Bobo. He will come to the league ready.

 

[EBF]

I like Chubb a lot but don't sleep on Derrick Henry. I can't wait until the both of them are getting more touches.

Tex

No need to wait for that. Chubb has been averaging almost 20 carries per game for the last two months.

I'm not really a Derrick Henry fan. Unique athlete, but I don't like his style. Upright. High center of gravity. Long strides. No moves. Most of his best plays are just straight sprints. I can hardly ever remember him making anybody miss. He will play in the NFL, but IMO his reputation is a bit inflated.

 

[cowboymouth]

I like Chubb a lot but don't sleep on Derrick Henry. I can't wait until the both of them are getting more touches.

Tex

No need to wait for that. Chubb has been averaging almost 20 carries per game for the last two months.

I'm not really a Derrick Henry fan. Unique athlete, but I don't like his style. Upright. High center of gravity. Long strides. No moves. Most of his best plays are just straight sprints. I can hardly ever remember him making anybody miss. He will play in the NFL, but IMO his reputation is a bit inflated.

You are correct on Henry. He needs a 4 or 5 step head start to build up steam. Toss sweep or something out in space, he's good. Straight up the gut, not going to happen...unless the defense is slap worn down in the second half.

Freak of an athlete though and he should test very well at the combine.

 

[dickey moe]

I like Chubb a lot but don't sleep on **** Henry. I can't wait until the both of them are getting more touches.

 

[BigTex]

I like Chubb a lot but don't sleep on Derrick Henry. I can't wait until the both of them are getting more touches.

Tex

No need to wait for that. Chubb has been averaging almost 20 carries per game for the last two months.

I'm not really a Derrick Henry fan. Unique athlete, but I don't like his style. Upright. High center of gravity. Long strides. No moves. Most of his best plays are just straight sprints. I can hardly ever remember him making anybody miss. He will play in the NFL, but IMO his reputation is a bit inflated.

We've seen a lot more of Chubb and not enough of Henry. IMHO his ceiling is so high we've yet to see ALL of his game. He like Chubb has a great coach and I believe he will be better as time goes along. Great backs take what they are given. Henry explodes through the holes before anyone can react and it's so effortlessly it's ridiculous.

I'm not taking anything away from Chubb I like what he brings to the table but mark my words. We have not seen the best of Henry.

Good topic though, I'm a fan but I'm not sure he's the best young prospect just yet. I even like Drake, just hate he's on the same team as Henry.

Tex

 

[Xue]

I like Chubb a lot but don't sleep on Derrick Henry. I can't wait until the both of them are getting more touches.

Tex

No need to wait for that. Chubb has been averaging almost 20 carries per game for the last two months.

I'm not really a Derrick Henry fan. Unique athlete, but I don't like his style. Upright. High center of gravity. Long strides. No moves. Most of his best plays are just straight sprints. I can hardly ever remember him making anybody miss. He will play in the NFL, but IMO his reputation is a bit inflated.

Sounds like Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Henry is huge, just don't see his game translating into todays NFL.

 

[Raider Nation]

Treat 'em right.

 

[EBF]

33 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs in the bowl game tonight against Louisville.

Eight straight 100+ yard games to close the season.

He'll finish the year with 1550 rushing yards. The 4th best rushing season in Georgia school history, behind three years of Herschel Walker ('80-'82).

What's especially crazy is that he did it as a true freshman on just 219 carries. 7.1 YPC.

 

[steveski]

Unreal. But really makes me wonder how great that offensive line is. There's a very good chance that Gurley and Chubb are the best backs in college football right now, but still...

 

[IHEARTFF]

in on page 1

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

His middle name is "Gives Me A". #amirite

 

[elguapo07]

Henry is huge, just don't see his game translating into todays NFL.

I think his game might end up being like another huge RB named Derrick, Derrick Fenner.

 

[Faust]

Georgia's Nick Chubb runs for 269 yards in Belk Bowl victory:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000452267/article/georgias-nick-chubb-runs-for-269-yards-in-belk-bowl-victory

 

[Mighty Mice]

Don't watch a ton of college ball so last night was the first live game I've seen Nick Chubb play. Wow. Much better instincts and balance than I suspected. He definitely looks the part. Not many negatives to see in his size/build/speed/etc

Two more years at Georgia until he's eligible for the 2017 draft. Has to be one of the elite prospects at this point.

Stay healthy, Nick.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

33 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs in the bowl game tonight against Louisville.

Eight straight 100+ yard games to close the season.

He'll finish the year with 1550 rushing yards. The 4th best rushing season in Georgia school history, behind three years of Herschel Walker ('80-'82).

What's especially crazy is that he did it as a true freshman on just 219 carries. 7.1 YPC.

If you're Keith Marshall you have to be thinking of declaring even with the lost year in 2014. What's the point of staying?

 

[jurb26]

33 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs in the bowl game tonight against Louisville.

Eight straight 100+ yard games to close the season.

He'll finish the year with 1550 rushing yards. The 4th best rushing season in Georgia school history, behind three years of Herschel Walker ('80-'82).

What's especially crazy is that he did it as a true freshman on just 219 carries. 7.1 YPC.

If you're Keith Marshall you have to be thinking of declaring even with the lost year in 2014. What's the point of staying?

Marshall should stay IMO. He will still hpget carries even though Chubb is there just like other backs were getting them with Gurley there. I think he's still got a lot to prove in college and he's got a better chance of being a top RB in 16. Unless of course UGA has another stud waiting in the wings... They might. Chubb has gotten better and better as the year went on. Running with better vision and patience. He's the clear top player in devy right now.

 

[JohnnyU]

Don't watch a ton of college ball so last night was the first live game I've seen Nick Chubb play. Wow. Much better instincts and balance than I suspected. He definitely looks the part. Not many negatives to see in his size/build/speed/etc

Two more years at Georgia until he's eligible for the 2017 draft. Has to be one of the elite prospects at this point.

Stay healthy, Nick.

A lot can happen in 2 years.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

33 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs in the bowl game tonight against Louisville.

Eight straight 100+ yard games to close the season.

He'll finish the year with 1550 rushing yards. The 4th best rushing season in Georgia school history, behind three years of Herschel Walker ('80-'82).

What's especially crazy is that he did it as a true freshman on just 219 carries. 7.1 YPC.

If you're Keith Marshall you have to be thinking of declaring even with the lost year in 2014. What's the point of staying?

Marshall should stay IMO. He will still hpget carries even though Chubb is there just like other backs were getting them with Gurley there. I think he's still got a lot to prove in college and he's got a better chance of being a top RB in 16. Unless of course UGA has another stud waiting in the wings... They might.Chubb has gotten better and better as the year went on. Running with better vision and patience. He's the clear top player in devy right now.

Other than proving the knee is better (which teams will be able to figure out on their own through medical evals at the combine), what's he going to accomplish with 50-75 touches? There's no real upside for the guy IMO. Better to be a 5th, 6th round pick today than stay a year, risk injury and be a 4th round pick next year if everything goes right.

 

[jurb26]

33 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs in the bowl game tonight against Louisville.

Eight straight 100+ yard games to close the season.

He'll finish the year with 1550 rushing yards. The 4th best rushing season in Georgia school history, behind three years of Herschel Walker ('80-'82).

What's especially crazy is that he did it as a true freshman on just 219 carries. 7.1 YPC.

If you're Keith Marshall you have to be thinking of declaring even with the lost year in 2014. What's the point of staying?

Marshall should stay IMO. He will still hpget carries even though Chubb is there just like other backs were getting them with Gurley there. I think he's still got a lot to prove in college and he's got a better chance of being a top RB in 16. Unless of course UGA has another stud waiting in the wings... They might.Chubb has gotten better and better as the year went on. Running with better vision and patience. He's the clear top player in devy right now.

Other than proving the knee is better (which teams will be able to figure out on their own through medical evals at the combine), what's he going to accomplish with 50-75 touches? There's no real upside for the guy IMO. Better to be a 5th, 6th round pick today than stay a year, risk injury and be a 4th round pick next year if everything goes right.

I think he could move up to a 3rd rounder, best case, if he stays. That's a good deal better on his first contract.Honestly, I'm really not sure he's going to be drafted this year. The RB class is too deep. He may become a UDFA.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Nick Chubb - RB - Bulldogs

Georgia freshman RB Nick Chubb rushed for 269 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries in Tuesday's 37-14 Belk Bowl victory over Louisville.

Chubb's most impressive run didn't end in the end zone. From the two-yard line in the third quarter, Chubb rumbled 82 yards before he was wrestled down. Chubb was simply one of the nation's best first-year players this season, running for 113 yards in eight straight games to end the year, going over 140 in six of those contests. Recently named SEC Freshman of the Year and First Team Coaches All-SEC, Chubb finished with 1,547 and 14 touchdowns. After the Bulldogs lost Todd Gurley, the 5-foot-10, 228-pound Chubb proved indispensable. Chubb boasts an impressive combination of "vision, lateral agility, acceleration and versatility in the passing game for a bigger back," Scout Inc.'s Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl recently wrote. Consider Chubb a name in bold on the 2015 Heisman watch list.

Dec 30 - 11:36 PM

 

[ROCKET]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

33 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs in the bowl game tonight against Louisville.

Eight straight 100+ yard games to close the season.

He'll finish the year with 1550 rushing yards. The 4th best rushing season in Georgia school history, behind three years of Herschel Walker ('80-'82).

What's especially crazy is that he did it as a true freshman on just 219 carries. 7.1 YPC.

If you're Keith Marshall you have to be thinking of declaring even with the lost year in 2014. What's the point of staying?

Marshall should stay IMO. He will still hpget carries even though Chubb is there just like other backs were getting them with Gurley there. I think he's still got a lot to prove in college and he's got a better chance of being a top RB in 16. Unless of course UGA has another stud waiting in the wings... They might.Chubb has gotten better and better as the year went on. Running with better vision and patience. He's the clear top player in devy right now.

Other than proving the knee is better (which teams will be able to figure out on their own through medical evals at the combine), what's he going to accomplish with 50-75 touches? There's no real upside for the guy IMO. Better to be a 5th, 6th round pick today than stay a year, risk injury and be a 4th round pick next year if everything goes right.

I think he could move up to a 3rd rounder, best case, if he stays. That's a good deal better on his first contract.Honestly, I'm really not sure he's going to be drafted this year. The RB class is too deep. He may become a UDFA.

Its an interesting dilemma for Marshall for sure. He certainly could move up in the draft just by staying healthy for a year. But how much playing behind Chubb, and splitting carries with Michel? I dunno.

He'd risk UDFA by coming out now, but if he killed it at the combine, which he very well might, he could easily be a 5th round selection.

I guess what I'm saying is I agree with Rob.

 

[tdmills]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

 

[ROCKET]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

 

[EBF]

I see it the reverse way. Fournette is a good player who has a chance to be a round 1-3 pick down the line.

However, Chubb is already a 1st round talent. I truly believe he would be a first round pick in this draft if eligible.

Fournette has had some very good moments this season, but at his best he has never looked as good as Chubb has.

 

[Xue]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

Fournette doesn't have the cutting ability as Peterson and doesn't have the same type of tackle-breaking ability as Chubb.

 

[JohnnyU]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

Fournette doesn't have the cutting ability as Peterson and doesn't have the same type of tackle-breaking ability as Chubb.

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

 

[jurb26]

I don't think there's enough footage of Fournette for such conviction.

 

[EBF]

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

They both played a lot this year. Chubb had 219 carries and Fournette had 187. I think that's a big enough body of work to give you some idea of what these players can do. Having watched a lot of them this year, Chubb looked better from day one. Simply stands out more in the eyeball test.

If you don't find that convincing, the statistics and workout numbers tell the same story.

Chubb - 219 carries, 1547 yards (7.1 YPC), 18 runs of 20+ yards

Fournette - 187 carries, 1034 yards (5.5 YPC), 10 runs of 20+ yards

Best 100m time in high school:

Chubb - 10.69s

Fournette - 10.78s (in slightly wind-illegal conditions)

Nike HS combine numbers:

Chubb - 4.47s 40, 4.10s shuttle, 40.8" vertical, 43' power throw

Fournette - 4.30s shuttle, 29.9" vertical, 38.5' power throw

Chubb is also stronger and more compact at 5'10" 228 pounds compared with 6'1" 230 pounds for Fournette.

Add it all up and there's a strong narrative. Chubb looks better than Fournette to the naked eye. Though Fournette had a solid debut season, Chubb was much better overall. More yards. Higher YPC. More long runs. A higher frequency of long runs. Chubb is stronger, faster, and more explosive than Fournette.

Hypothetically, things could still change in the future, but from where we stand today there is very little reason to favor Fournette. The only thing that seems to support him being the better prospect are year-old recruiting rankings, which are outdated now.

Fournette has done some good things this year. I think he'd be in the conversation with Freeman and Perine for spots in the second tier of this freshman class. However, there's only one can't-miss player in this group for me now and that's Chubb. He is the real deal. No doubt about it.

 

[JohnnyU]

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

They both played a lot this year. Chubb had 219 carries and Fournette had 187. I think that's a big enough body of work to give you some idea of what these players can do. Having watched a lot of them this year, Chubb looked better from day one. Simply stands out more in the eyeball test.

If you don't find that convincing, the statistics and workout numbers tell the same story.

Chubb - 219 carries, 1547 yards (7.1 YPC), 18 runs of 20+ yards

Fournette - 187 carries, 1034 yards (5.5 YPC), 10 runs of 20+ yards

Best 100m time in high school:

Chubb - 10.69s

Fournette - 10.78s (in slightly wind-illegal conditions)

Nike HS combine numbers:

Chubb - 4.47s 40, 4.10s shuttle, 40.8" vertical, 43' power throw

Fournette - 4.30s shuttle, 29.9" vertical, 38.5' power throw

Chubb is also stronger and more compact at 5'10" 228 pounds compared with 6'1" 230 pounds for Fournette.

Add it all up and there's a strong narrative. Chubb looks better than Fournette to the naked eye. Though Fournette had a solid debut season, Chubb was much better overall. More yards. Higher YPC. More long runs. A higher frequency of long runs. Chubb is stronger, faster, and more explosive than Fournette.

Hypothetically, things could still change in the future, but from where we stand today there is very little reason to favor Fournette. The only thing that seems to support him being the better prospect are year-old recruiting rankings, which are outdated now.

Fournette has done some good things this year. I think he'd be in the conversation with Freeman and Perine for spots in the second tier of this freshman class. However, there's only one can't-miss player in this group for me now and that's Chubb. He is the real deal. No doubt about it.

Offensive line for each team is the outlier that nobody has talked about. Several Georgia RBs look successful behind the Georgia line (Todd Gurley who was arguably the best rb in the nation before his injury), just as Trent Richardson looked great behind the Alabama line, just as Mark Ingram did before him, and Yeldon after. I'm not saying he won't be a stud in the pros based on that, but it is something you have to look at to some degree and can't ignore. I don't put too much into the HS combine numbers either. Hell, we've seen many HS and College combine studs fail at the next level, but I know you're a big fan of that so I understand your bias. Also, has there been enough data on Fournette? or even Chubb for that matter?

 

[EBF]

Offensive line for each team is the outlier that nobody has talked about. Several Georgia RBs look successful behind the Georgia line (arguably the best rb in the nation before his injury), just as Trent Richardson looked great behind the Alabama line, just as Mark Ingram did before him, and Yeldon after. I'm not saying he won't be a stud in the pros based on that, but it is something you have to look at to some degree. I don't put too much into the HS combine numbers either. Hell, we've seen many HS and College combine studs fail at the next level, but I know you're a big fan of that so I understand your bias. Also, has there been enough data on Fournette? or even Chubb for that matter?

I think it's harder to come up with reasons for why Chubb might not be for real than to accept that he's a great talent. Let's recap:

- 4-5 star recruit by every major HS recruiting service

- legitimate athletic freak (10.69s 100m time / state shotput champion / Nike combine SPARQ national RB champion out of thousands of participants)

- SEC freshman of the year

- best rushing season by any UGA player besides Herschel Walker, and he did it on 219 carries

You don't even have to believe in the "eyeball test" to like this kid. He checks every box.

Fournette looks like a future NFL player as well, but there's no particular reason to think he's better than Chubb based on everything we've seen since their college careers began. You used Georgia's line as a reason to doubt Chubb without acknowledging that Jeremy Hill rushed for 1401 yards at 6.9 YPC behind LSU's line last season. Both players play on good teams. Despite that, Chubb had a much better freshman season by every objective measure. He's a better athlete on paper and he looks better to me when I watch clips of them. At the end of the day, I just don't see a credible argument for why Fournette should be ranked ahead of him right now. Is it possible that things could change? Yes, but I'm going to go with Occam's razor and assume that the simplest explanation is the correct one. The simplest explanation is that Chubb is better.

 

[jurb26]

UGA has a good oline the but RBs are special. Both Gurley and Chubb made people miss and broke tackles regularly. Gurley was better, but Chubb was very good as well. These guys are just hard to tackle. It's apparent when you watch them.

 

[tdmills]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

Fournette doesn't have the cutting ability as Peterson and doesn't have the same type of tackle-breaking ability as Chubb.

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

You seem to want to discount anyone's analysis on here and you've done it multiple times. (All they do is watch youtube highlights). Many different ways to watch every play, carry, touch of their college games.

 

[JohnnyU]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

Fournette doesn't have the cutting ability as Peterson and doesn't have the same type of tackle-breaking ability as Chubb.

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

You seem to want to discount anyone's analysis on here and you've done it multiple times. (All they do is watch youtube highlights). Many different ways to watch every play, carry, touch of their college games.

I'm not giving the analysis a discount Just saying there are plenty of factors that go into RB analysis and team OL seems to be ignored in this one and the sample size is pretty damn small for both runners. How big are those holes that Chubb is running through vs Fournette? Is it a coincidence that every single Georgia running back has great success? NFL scouts get it wrong too and they are the ones I pay most attention to, so it's hardly an exact science as some here seem to believe.

 

[tdmills]

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

They both played a lot this year. Chubb had 219 carries and Fournette had 187. I think that's a big enough body of work to give you some idea of what these players can do. Having watched a lot of them this year, Chubb looked better from day one. Simply stands out more in the eyeball test.

If you don't find that convincing, the statistics and workout numbers tell the same story.

Chubb - 219 carries, 1547 yards (7.1 YPC), 18 runs of 20+ yards

Fournette - 187 carries, 1034 yards (5.5 YPC), 10 runs of 20+ yards

Best 100m time in high school:

Chubb - 10.69s

Fournette - 10.78s (in slightly wind-illegal conditions)

Nike HS combine numbers:

Chubb - 4.47s 40, 4.10s shuttle, 40.8" vertical, 43' power throw

Fournette - 4.30s shuttle, 29.9" vertical, 38.5' power throw

Chubb is also stronger and more compact at 5'10" 228 pounds compared with 6'1" 230 pounds for Fournette.

Add it all up and there's a strong narrative. Chubb looks better than Fournette to the naked eye. Though Fournette had a solid debut season, Chubb was much better overall. More yards. Higher YPC. More long runs. A higher frequency of long runs. Chubb is stronger, faster, and more explosive than Fournette.

Hypothetically, things could still change in the future, but from where we stand today there is very little reason to favor Fournette. The only thing that seems to support him being the better prospect are year-old recruiting rankings, which are outdated now.

Fournette has done some good things this year. I think he'd be in the conversation with Freeman and Perine for spots in the second tier of this freshman class. However, there's only one can't-miss player in this group for me now and that's Chubb. He is the real deal. No doubt about it.

Offensive line for each team is the outlier that nobody has talked about. Several Georgia RBs look successful behind the Georgia line (Todd Gurley who was arguably the best rb in the nation before his injury), just as Trent Richardson looked great behind the Alabama line, just as Mark Ingram did before him, and Yeldon after. I'm not saying he won't be a stud in the pros based on that, but it is something you have to look at to some degree and can't ignore. I don't put too much into the HS combine numbers either. Hell, we've seen many HS and College combine studs fail at the next level, but I know you're a big fan of that so I understand your bias. Also, has there been enough data on Fournette? or even Chubb for that matter?

That's why breaking down every aspect of the players game is key. Should we throw away every Alabama RB then? Guess we would've missed on Eddie Lacy.

If the RB is running through open lanes of not getting touched, then I discount them(see Seastunk). But Chubb/Gurley/Gordon all have shown me the ability to make defenders miss through agility, outrun a defender when they have the angle on them, break arm/tackle attempts from defenders, display good vision to make a hole, and creativity to make something happen when nothing is there. All of this is done through analyzing tape/film/plays over and over again.

All we can do at this point is judge the players from what they've done through their entire lives to this point and project a future.

The other aspect that hasn't been discussed is age. Fournette will turn 20 THIS January. Chubb is over a full year younger.

 

[tdmills]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

Fournette doesn't have the cutting ability as Peterson and doesn't have the same type of tackle-breaking ability as Chubb.

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

You seem to want to discount anyone's analysis on here and you've done it multiple times. (All they do is watch youtube highlights). Many different ways to watch every play, carry, touch of their college games.

I'm not giving the analysis a discount Just saying there are plenty of factors that go into RB analysis and team OL seems to be ignored in this one and the sample size is pretty damn small for both runners. How big are those holes that Chubb is running through vs Fournette? Is it a coincidence that every single Georgia running back has great success? NFL scouts get it wrong too and they are the ones I pay most attention to, so it's hardly an exact science as some here seem to believe.

You can try to manipulate this all you want. Many in this thread agree and no it's not an exact science. Nothing is for sure in this world if you want to go on that tangent.

Georgia RBs YPC with over 10 carries this year:

Todd Gurley 7.4

Nick Chubb 7.1

Sony Michel 6.4

Brendan Douglas 4.2

Keith Marshall 2.0

If it was the OL....wouldn't they all have the same YPC or near it?

 

[JohnnyU]

Love Chub, still think Fournette has way more upside than any rb in college right now and it's not even close.

How is it not close? Chubb beat Fournette in every statistical category in 2014. Chubb has a thicker build. Fournette is maybe a little faster and had more hype(that he didn't live up to)

A little? Fournette IMO has the most upside of any rb since AP as far as the combination of size, speed and power. He started off slow but the last half of the year he really started to come on. Like I said I love Chubb, I just don't see him on the same level as LF.

Hopefully they both stay healthy and we can revisit this debate in about 5-10 years. I think they both have stud potential but LF has uber stud potential.

Fournette doesn't have the cutting ability as Peterson and doesn't have the same type of tackle-breaking ability as Chubb.

How do you guys know so much about these players at this juncture? Youtube? A couple of games on national TV? I find these analysis hard to believe with confidence.

You seem to want to discount anyone's analysis on here and you've done it multiple times. (All they do is watch youtube highlights). Many different ways to watch every play, carry, touch of their college games.

I'm not giving the analysis a discount Just saying there are plenty of factors that go into RB analysis and team OL seems to be ignored in this one and the sample size is pretty damn small for both runners. How big are those holes that Chubb is running through vs Fournette? Is it a coincidence that every single Georgia running back has great success? NFL scouts get it wrong too and they are the ones I pay most attention to, so it's hardly an exact science as some here seem to believe.

You can try to manipulate this all you want. Many in this thread agree and no it's not an exact science. Nothing is for sure in this world if you want to go on that tangent.

Georgia RBs YPC with over 10 carries this year:

Todd Gurley 7.4

Nick Chubb 7.1

Sony Michel 6.4

Brendan Douglas 4.2

Keith Marshall 2.0

If it was the OL....wouldn't they all have the same YPC or near it?

The first 3 is good enough for me and 4.2 isn't bad either. Look, I'm not saying both Gurley and Chubb won't be studs, I'm just saying it's very difficult to predict. Very seldom does someone come along like ADP and I'm not seeing it with any RB to date. I think Fournette looks closer with the eyeball test than anyone else, but I'm not predicting an ADP career for him either. Nor am I saying Fournette is better than Chubb, but in my eyes he looks closer to ADP than Chubb does.