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RB Nick Chubb, HOU (4 Viewers)

ugh, some people can't see something that is right in front of their face.  Chubb is a generational talent, jump on the wagon while there are still those who don't see it.
He's very. very good, but there are others who fit that description too.

He may be the best.  ...but so might Fournett or Cook.

That "not really close" stuff is old and arrogant jerkwad stuff, though.

 
He's very. very good, but there are others who fit that description too.

He may be the best.  ...but so might Fournett or Cook.

That "not really close" stuff is old and arrogant jerkwad stuff, though.
those terms all describe me pretty well, so makes sense i'd pull out the not really close line.

 
Now that we've seen that he's back and fully recovered, maybe he should take it easy and play sparingly. I just want to see him healthy the whole year. After today, I've seen enough. Shut him down.

 
I'm still hopeful of getting Chubb at the end of the 1st for the Panthers. Preseason 2017 mocks had him late first. Was thinking Carolina's offense could be fun to watch in 2017 with Chubb replacing Stewart (first year where dead cap is reasonable,/$5M cap savings).

I watched the highlights and he looked good, but I didn't see anything that would lead me to believe he's the best prospect since sliced bread. I liked him from watching him with Gurley, but most of the highlights from UNC came from a couple runs including the long TD. The other 30 were just normal good runs/getting stuff sometimes.

That said, they keep running him 30+ times a game and I'm not sure I'm as eager to draft him coming off the ACL. That worries me a bit.

 
I'm still hopeful of getting Chubb at the end of the 1st for the Panthers. Preseason 2017 mocks had him late first. Was thinking Carolina's offense could be fun to watch in 2017 with Chubb replacing Stewart (first year where dead cap is reasonable,/$5M cap savings).

I watched the highlights and he looked good, but I didn't see anything that would lead me to believe he's the best prospect since sliced bread. I liked him from watching him with Gurley, but most of the highlights from UNC came from a couple runs including the long TD. The other 30 were just normal good runs/getting stuff sometimes.

That said, they keep running him 30+ times a game and I'm not sure I'm as eager to draft him coming off the ACL. That worries me a bit.
I thought he looked good but didn't have the suddenness and cutting he had before. But it's very early after a bad injury, so you can't complain too much.

He won't be around in the late 1st if healthy, not a chance.

 
I thought he looked good but didn't have the suddenness and cutting he had before. But it's very early after a bad injury, so you can't complain too much.

He won't be around in the late 1st if healthy, not a chance.
Late 1st is definitely possible even if healthy. With Fournette, Cook and McCaffery as potential 1st rounders as well, it wouldn't surprise me if Chubb fell to late first. There are a ton of 1st-3rd round RBs in the 2017 draft. Having that depth, will sometimes mean that players go later than expected. Maybe later this season he'll look better, but so far he hasn't looked like a first rounder yet. 

 
If this is going to devolve into another McCaffery debate, at least make sure it goes in the McCaffery thread guys. I can feel it coming.

 
I think I like Freeman and Gaskin more than McCaffrey, but yeah...this isn't really the right thread for that discussion.

Chubb's struggles are predictable. The guy probably shouldn't even be playing football right now. The combine is 5 months from now. If he can heal up and put up the kind of numbers that you'd expect based on his freshman-sophomore seasons, I'll pretty much write off this season as meaningless. If he still doesn't look right by February-March then I think you have to consider a slight possibility that he'll never be the same.

 
I think I like Freeman and Gaskin more than McCaffrey, but yeah...this isn't really the right thread for that discussion.

Chubb's struggles are predictable. The guy probably shouldn't even be playing football right now. The combine is 5 months from now. If he can heal up and put up the kind of numbers that you'd expect based on his freshman-sophomore seasons, I'll pretty much write off this season as meaningless. If he still doesn't look right by February-March then I think you have to consider a slight possibility that he'll never be the same.
Sitting out isn't going to be an advantage.  Taking time off from being hit on weekly basis can have the opposite effect.

 
Speaking on the Paul Finebaum Show on Friday, Georgia HC Kirby Smart called junior RB Nick Chubb (ankle) a game-time decision for Saturday's showdown with Tennessee.
Conflicting reports on Chubb's availability surfaced on Friday. His father, Henry Chubb, said that the medical recommendation was "a couple weeks" of rehab, which would rule him out for Saturday's contest. Smart offered a potentially more optimistic view on the Paul Finebaum Show, saying, "Nick has improved in the last probably 48 hours immensely. We’re going to go out tomorrow in warmups, see how he does and if the medical staff clears him, he is going to play." Fantasy owners are going to have to keep a close eye on this one before kickoff. Should Chubb be unable to play, the starting load would fall to Sony Michel, with Brian Herrien and Elijah Holyfield seeing additional bumps in playing time as well.
Source: SEC Country

 
So what's the word on this guy?  Two months ago people were talking about him as a consensus top 10 NFL pick and ZWK said he's the best college RB he's ever seen.  Now I'm seeing him being mocked in the 3rd round of the NFL draft as the 8th RB taken.

Has the injury just done him in and made him the next Marcus Lattimore, or is this a situation where he was maybe just still not playing at 100% this year and is going to be his old self again next year when he's 2 years removed from the injury (a la Edgerrin James and Wes Welker)?  I haven't really seen him play much this year, but he started so strong it has me confused on the injury front.

 
Chubb's numbers are way down this year. I haven't watched his most recent games, but in the games I have watched from this year he looked much worse than he did in previous years.

So the question is if the injury has permanently sapped his abilities, or if it's a temporary thing where his recovery is still in progress. If his tape looks better in the last few games of the season, and he does well at the combine, then that will point in the direction of a temporary thing that he's recovering from.

I do think that fantasy owners should be more tolerant of risk, and should put more weight on upside, than NFL teams. So he should go earlier in dynasty rookie drafts than his NFL draft position would suggest.

 
Gurley is the best as far as far combination of size,speed,power that I've seen in the last 10 years since AP - this is clear from the college tape.  Chubb pre-injury was a tier right below but above Zeke. Now, I'm not sure what to think except I don't think any of these RB's are HOFer's. Fournette doesn't look special at all

 
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Gurley is the best as far as far combination of size,speed,power that I've seen in the last 10 years since AP - this is clear from the college tape.  Chubb pre-injury was a tier right below but above Zeke. Now, I'm not sure what to think except I don't think any of these RB's are HOFer's. Fournette doesn't look special at all
I think Dalvin Cook is.

 
I have Chubb in my top 4 RBs right now.  He might be 4 though.  I think the top 4 are very close, however.  VERY close.

McCaffrey, Cook, Fournette, Chubb - in some order.

 
Chubb's numbers are way down this year. I haven't watched his most recent games, but in the games I have watched from this year he looked much worse than he did in previous years.

So the question is if the injury has permanently sapped his abilities, or if it's a temporary thing where his recovery is still in progress. If his tape looks better in the last few games of the season, and he does well at the combine, then that will point in the direction of a temporary thing that he's recovering from.

I do think that fantasy owners should be more tolerant of risk, and should put more weight on upside, than NFL teams. So he should go earlier in dynasty rookie drafts than his NFL draft position would suggest.
I would give Chubb another year to get back to form.  He suffered an unprecedented/uncommon injury, even among athletes.

 
Chubb was better than Gurley pre-injury.
 

Will he be the same guy again? I don't know how you can say for sure. He isn't yet, but the injury was pretty devastating and he may need more time to get back to 100%.

 
I would give Chubb another year to get back to form.  He suffered an unprecedented/uncommon injury, even among athletes.
I'd be more optimistic about him if it was just a torn ACL, since players usually make their way back from those and it does sometimes take more than a year.

When he got injured, there were 3 possibilities:

He returns to form in his first season back
He eventually returns to form, but not in his first season back
He never returns to form

We're now getting close to ruling out the first possibility (unless his late-season tape looks good). So if you initially thought that these 3 possibilities were equally likely and he had a 2/3 chance of returning to form at some point, now that's down to a 1/2 chance.

 
anyone think it's possible he stays in school another year? 
There are two ways to look at this, from his point of view:

1. Having to stay in school longer is what caused him to get injured before getting paid in the first place, and its time to get a paycheck ASAP and go pro

2. One more year could rehab both his knee and his draft stock (if he thinks he'll fall)

He's a smart kid, but idk which option he'll choose. Seems very loyal to Georgia and a guy that loves the college game, so who knows. I'm really hoping he declares. 

 
Rookie contracts are so cheap that Todd Gurley makes less per year than Bilal Powell. So it doesn't make sense financially to stay in college another year just to try to improve his draft stock.

 
Rookie contracts are so cheap that Todd Gurley makes less per year than Bilal Powell. So it doesn't make sense financially to stay in college another year just to try to improve his draft stock.




 
Honestly, he might come out ahead by not being a first-round pick, because of no 5th-year option. Going back to school and being a 1st rounder sets him back 2 years from a new contract. 

 
Rookie contracts are so cheap that Todd Gurley makes less per year than Bilal Powell. So it doesn't make sense financially to stay in college another year just to try to improve his draft stock.


Honestly, he might come out ahead by not being a first-round pick, because of no 5th-year option. Going back to school and being a 1st rounder sets him back 2 years from a new contract. 
Yep.  Goal #1 for these guys is to come out as soon as they will get playing time and get that rookie contract ticking.  While it's a slight exaggeration to say Powell makes more than Gurley, it's shockingly close enough to really drive the point home.  Elliott is making $24M guaranteed, Gurley $14M only $9M of which is guaranteed, and that's a 10.  A later 1st makes even less.  What he does as a rookie isn't going to affect his second contract anyway.  He'll have three more years to show what he's worth.  He'll get a year of NFL-caliber rehab and medical care.  And then in 2021 he hits his UFA year at age 25 rather than 2023 at 27.  By today's numbers he could make $20M in those two years alone.

 

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