fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Chubb reminds me of Jeremy Hill
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RB Nick Chubb, HOU (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
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Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
He reminds me of Marcus Lattimore. Obviously not as bad an injury, but with both of them I feel cheated out of seeing what might have been. Hopefully Chubb can regain his burst and become a solid back. I'm not sure the Freshman Chubb will be seen again.
Zyphros
Footballguy
No no no no no no no no. Chubb actually has decent to pretty good feet. I don't recall Hill having very good feet coming out of college, but that was before I actually took a good bit of time to scout myself.
Chubb reminds me of Ajayi a bit with a little bit more quickness and suddenness. Which is interesting to me because of the parallels in knee injuries which had Ajayi drop more than expected in the NFL draft. Might make an interesting case study depending on when Chubb is drafted.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Dunno, never gave Jeremy a foot massage. Wasn’t really meant to be a knock on Chubb just who he reminded me of when watching his clips. Hill was a very good runningback his first year in the league.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
From what I have seen of Chubb I like DJs Johnathan Stewart with perhaps less burst comparison, that seems fair. I can somewhat see the Ajayi comparison. Disagree with the Jeremy Hill comparison but I disliked Jeremy Hill as a NFL RB. Been wrong but somewhat right about that.
To me Stewart and Ajayi were tier one RB prospects and I can see Chubb being in similar high upside tier, or maybe Chubb is tier two. I haven't decided about that, still need to watch some more games. From what I have seen of of him he is closer to Stewart or Ajayi to me than Hill. Even if Chubb ends up being tier two, he will be higher in tier two than where I had Hill (near the bottom of the tier).
To me Stewart and Ajayi were tier one RB prospects and I can see Chubb being in similar high upside tier, or maybe Chubb is tier two. I haven't decided about that, still need to watch some more games. From what I have seen of of him he is closer to Stewart or Ajayi to me than Hill. Even if Chubb ends up being tier two, he will be higher in tier two than where I had Hill (near the bottom of the tier).
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hill was really nimble for a back of his size.
Maybe he could pull a McGahee. He was never the same, but still had a very good (and long) career.Jello_Biafra said:
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As for the Hill comparisons, c'mon, that's just mean. Hill was literally one of the least agile RB prospects: http://dev.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jeremy-hill/
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Fred Taylor
The Captain
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
"Men who stand 6-foot-2 and weigh 235 pounds are not supposed to be as nimble as Hill"
http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2014/01/jeremy_hill_column.html
"Good initial quickness -- gets rolling downhill in a hurry. Quick feet for a bigger back. "
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/jeremy-hill?id=2543603
"Flashes a jump cut, stiff arm and spin move to help him separate from defenders, can be slippery."
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1960086-jeremy-hill-nfl-draft-2014-highlights-scouting-report-more
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not saying the combine metrics can accurately define a players agility or change of direction ability at all. It doesn't.
That said I can't really say I saw Hill demonstrate the abilities that the articles you are pointing out thought of him. I disagreed with those perspectives at the time as well. He really did not show much of that in college. If it was blocked Hill got big runs. If it wasn't he didn't create on his own.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Not that you're wrong, but I personally disagree. If we're using metrics that say Julio is more agile than Green, of course Hill is going to bomb, as he's just not explosive. But I did find him fluid and nimble, and as I drafted him, I did spend a good deal of time checking out. I obviously missed on the pick, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
No worries. We disagree. I was out on one of my islands a bit in regards to Hill. Almost everyone seemed to think he was a better RB than I did.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I just watched 4 more of Chubb's games. Using the new trait based charting of the plays for each game.
When I watched the game against Samford, I could see a noticable difference in the quality of opponent, as I had just watched Chubb against Auburn the game before, not a very good game for Chubb there. Well, I have the most positive hits for Chubb thus far against Samford. He does some good change of direction plays that are successful in this game, that I don't think I have really seen from him in the other 4 games I've charted so far that much.
This game against Samford the score is 0-0 until some point in the second quarter, and Chubb is not making as many positive plays in the early going, but the blocking is there, and it is wearing the defense down.
Chubb ends up with 48 points in the game vs Samfdord, his next highest total is 28 vs Mississippi State. I am curious to see how this goes, after I have 10 games for Chubb and have several other players done.
When I watched the game against Samford, I could see a noticable difference in the quality of opponent, as I had just watched Chubb against Auburn the game before, not a very good game for Chubb there. Well, I have the most positive hits for Chubb thus far against Samford. He does some good change of direction plays that are successful in this game, that I don't think I have really seen from him in the other 4 games I've charted so far that much.
This game against Samford the score is 0-0 until some point in the second quarter, and Chubb is not making as many positive plays in the early going, but the blocking is there, and it is wearing the defense down.
Chubb ends up with 48 points in the game vs Samfdord, his next highest total is 28 vs Mississippi State. I am curious to see how this goes, after I have 10 games for Chubb and have several other players done.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I finished watching 10 games of Chubb,
I am interested to go back later and grade some of his 2015 games, and see if those turn out better.
Overall from the games I watched Chubb had two bad games. Against Auburn and Notre Dame.
Since I haven't graded any other players yet, I am not sure how good his best games will stack up to them. I know on some of Chubbs plays he was getting a +1 on 4 or more categories on the same play. Usually explosive ones. His best game from my grades was against TCU in 2016 with a 51 total score. He had three other games relatively close to this, 48,48, 47 Samford, South Carolina and Appalachan State.
After this I watched one game of Sony Michel against Auburn. Chubb had 14 points from this game and Michel had 11. A lot of negative plays as Auburn was winning and their defense disrupting a lot of things. Chubb had more opportunities than Michel in this game. Which is somewhat a problem with this method, but builds in a player earning opportunity as well I suppose. An average score from all of the games can even out that type of disparity too.
Some notes
Has some big plays where getting the direct snap. Worries me about how that might transate to the NFL. Would like to see more good runs on traditional hand offs. Seems to have better burst from toss plays as well.
I had to add the balance category as Chubb keeps his feet on one play in pretty amazing fashion and is able to get low and drive the defenders backwards after being stood up. Some of these other plays he shows good balance after contact. If he didn't run so high at times I think this would be less obvious. When he does use good pad level it usually leads to extra yards. I wish he would do that more.
Doesn't play as well against better competition. I didn't know there was a college team called Samford before. He does some nice cutting in this game, the defense is getting blocked better than Auburn for example. His pad level bothers me and he rarely makes the first defender miss when blocking breaks down.
In pass blocking he failed some assignments. Generally does a good job of checking before releasing on his route unless it is a flare pass or something meant for him to be an available receiver early. Two of his negative blocking grades came from plays where he was the lead blocker and failed to block his guy well enough. Isn't targeted often over 10 games. He dropped two of I think 4 pass opportunities. No wonder the QB doesn't look his way on other plays where he is pretty open.
I am curious to watch some 2015 games and see if those grade out higher than the best games I did grade so far.
I am interested to go back later and grade some of his 2015 games, and see if those turn out better.
Overall from the games I watched Chubb had two bad games. Against Auburn and Notre Dame.
Since I haven't graded any other players yet, I am not sure how good his best games will stack up to them. I know on some of Chubbs plays he was getting a +1 on 4 or more categories on the same play. Usually explosive ones. His best game from my grades was against TCU in 2016 with a 51 total score. He had three other games relatively close to this, 48,48, 47 Samford, South Carolina and Appalachan State.
After this I watched one game of Sony Michel against Auburn. Chubb had 14 points from this game and Michel had 11. A lot of negative plays as Auburn was winning and their defense disrupting a lot of things. Chubb had more opportunities than Michel in this game. Which is somewhat a problem with this method, but builds in a player earning opportunity as well I suppose. An average score from all of the games can even out that type of disparity too.
Some notes
Has some big plays where getting the direct snap. Worries me about how that might transate to the NFL. Would like to see more good runs on traditional hand offs. Seems to have better burst from toss plays as well.
I had to add the balance category as Chubb keeps his feet on one play in pretty amazing fashion and is able to get low and drive the defenders backwards after being stood up. Some of these other plays he shows good balance after contact. If he didn't run so high at times I think this would be less obvious. When he does use good pad level it usually leads to extra yards. I wish he would do that more.
Doesn't play as well against better competition. I didn't know there was a college team called Samford before. He does some nice cutting in this game, the defense is getting blocked better than Auburn for example. His pad level bothers me and he rarely makes the first defender miss when blocking breaks down.
In pass blocking he failed some assignments. Generally does a good job of checking before releasing on his route unless it is a flare pass or something meant for him to be an available receiver early. Two of his negative blocking grades came from plays where he was the lead blocker and failed to block his guy well enough. Isn't targeted often over 10 games. He dropped two of I think 4 pass opportunities. No wonder the QB doesn't look his way on other plays where he is pretty open.
I am curious to watch some 2015 games and see if those grade out higher than the best games I did grade so far.
The Captain
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Brutal comps, brutal writeup, brutal grade...
And a round 3-4 projection.... While guys like Keryon and Sony are 2-3
Strange.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
The shine is off chubb for sure....use it to your advantage
Boston
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Not even sure why. He looke better and better as the season went on... Looking a bit more like "old chubb"
Sony ripped some big ones in that last bowl game that somehow turned Chubb into a scrub.
Bizarre.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Thats the thing more people watched the bowl games and sony shined. Chubb looked pediatrian vs bama. Alot of backa do. Forunette comes to mindSoulfly3 said:
Soulfly3
Footballguy
well, then the wouldve seen the bowl game before the rose bowl where chubb was monsterous as well.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Chubb is faster than Morris.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It's weird. People in here loved him pre-injury and thought he was better than Gurley. Yet the scouting reports say he isn't a good 3rd down back. I can't believe his pass catching ability was massively impacted by his injury.....so why did so many people think he projected better than Gurley?The Captain said:
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Not at all. It's a serious question. I never got the sense that he had issues as a pass catcher when people loved him. Now all of a sudden he's a two down back. I don't know if the truth is somewhere in the middle or not, but it affects my view of him. He's on my radar based on where I'll be drafting...and I'm truly interested in hearing if/how perceptions of him have changed over time.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
but someone on his own team looked better. it is what it is. I think Sony goes before him in NFL draft and FF draft. Take Chubb on value.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Why do so many people, including experts, feel otherwise? What makes you confident proclaiming this?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Don’t think he is. I think he can catch passes ala Fournette but think most teams will have a guy better at third and longs, two minute drill etc. and that’s if he’s a teams bell cow.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Just from watching him. He's had great RBs next to him throughout college, so if course they were utilized
Maybe he pans out better as a 2 down back, but i think he has all the tools for a 3 Downer
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sure. But that is true for lots of teams. I guess a better question would have been "do you think he will be capable catching passes out of the backfield?"
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Capable sure. I compared him to Jeremy Hill earlier and stick to that. That’s who he most reminds me of. When Hill was getting 200-250 carries a season, he’d catch the ball 20-30 times.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Thx. I don't really think of J Hill as an effective or capable receiving back. But he did catch 63 passes in his first 3 years.
Appreciate the comment.
ZWK
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
He was awesome. It’s a tribute to him he was able to come back at all, tore everything in his knee but the ACL. Unfortunately, he’s lost a lot of that quickness, burst and agility. Still a good back but more of a power runner now. If you can watch that game in 2014 and a recent game and say that’s the same guy, you’re fooling yourself imo
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EBF
Footballguy
Statistically, he was pretty close to being "back" this season. I need to go watch some game clips before I make any kind of a judgment because I barely watched any CFB this year. That said, this guy was on track to be one of the all-time great workout freaks at RB before his injury. He was a 10.7 automatic 100m guy in HS at about 230 pounds. That's not a common combination. He was explosive, not just a big plodder. And he wasn't just a workout guy. He was awesome on the field. Why did people think he was better than Gurley? Because he was. He was averaging 8.1 YPC when he got hurt and was on a huge string of consecutive 100+ yard games dating back to his freshman year. He was on track to become a TRich/Gurley/Zeke/Barkley level prospect before the injury.
I don't put much stock in NFL.com's ratings. With a few exceptions, they're down on everybody. Nor does the Bama game matter to me. I remember Adrian Peterson getting eaten alive by USC in the title game when he was in college. You can't run if there's a party in your backfield on every down. I'm going to disregard that stuff and take a look at some game clips to see how he looks compared to what he used to be. My initial hunch is that it could be kind of a McGahee situation. He might not ever become what he looked like at one point, but he still has a lot of the traits to be a good pro back.
I don't put much stock in NFL.com's ratings. With a few exceptions, they're down on everybody. Nor does the Bama game matter to me. I remember Adrian Peterson getting eaten alive by USC in the title game when he was in college. You can't run if there's a party in your backfield on every down. I'm going to disregard that stuff and take a look at some game clips to see how he looks compared to what he used to be. My initial hunch is that it could be kind of a McGahee situation. He might not ever become what he looked like at one point, but he still has a lot of the traits to be a good pro back.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I agree- I think he looked better the further along he got. Having some rest/recovery and killing it at the combine could drastically improve his draft stock. Perhaps some good reviews from the teams doctors will give a clearer picture. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had an ajayi type fall either.
As for nfl.com rankings, I like how they display the info after the combine, it’s easy to check out a guys numbers and read a small history of the player, especially as far as injuries are concerned. As for the strengths/weaknesses, I’m not buying into some of that. I try to watch a guy before I read what others think then go back if I feel I’m missing something. Reading Calvin Ridley- weaknesses include tight skin? Wtf is that supposed to mean? He can’t add muscle because he doesn’t have enough skin to accomodate it?
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This. They are garbage. I know this because I've accidentally stumbled upon them when googling combine stats for veteran players... and when viewed with the advantage of hindsight they are comically bad. Even though I'm just looking for old combine stats, I usually take a few seconds to glance at the scouting report and player comparison just for a quick laugh. I've never come across one that actually looked accurate in hindsight.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think his demise has been greatly over stated.
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