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RB Nick Chubb, HOU (1 Viewer)

EBF said:
It's an ongoing conversation. Look at how LeVeon, Tomlinson, and Lynch started their careers vs. Doug Martin, Anthony Thomas, and Jeremy Hill. One season of production isn't going to provide us with conclusive answers. Now, I'm historically a Chubb supporter and I'm still an owner in dynasty and redraft. His speed at his size is unusual and his moves are better than advertised. I think he's a legit talent. I don't see him flaming out ala A-Train or Jeremy Hill. He may even be a Pro Bowl back if he stays healthy.

All the same, I view Saquon as a supernova type of talent. The kind of back you see once or twice per decade. Even if he's statistically worse than Chubb right now, there's no part of me that believes Chubb is the better back (and I do like Chubb). It's just that there's no more convenient time to hype a player than after the longest run of his career. It's like trying to have a reasonable conversation about Doug Martin after "that" Raiders game in his rookie season. Everyone is on cloud nine.

Big weeks come and go, and in the end it's about who can consistently deliver special moments. I happen to like both of those guys, but for me Chubb is a standout/Pro Bowl type of player, whereas Saquon is a generational/HoF type of player.
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I'm of the belief that Waldman was correct to rank them neck-and-neck. Barkley is the better receiver while Chubb has the better vision. Barkley has the better measurables while Chubb gets more yards after contact. Both of them have elite top end speed. I think at this time next year we'll be talking about Gurley, Barkley, and Chubb in the same breath. 

Yes, everyone is hyped after the big game with the big run, but keep in mind it came with a rag tag coaching staff two weeks after the HC and OC were fired. Chubb is saddled with a rookie QB who is saddled with no legitimate vertical threats. All things considered we're lucky to see decent games from Chubb, so some excitement for a massive game is warranted. His situation in 2019 will likely be much better than his current situation.

 
FF Ninja said:
I'm of the belief that Waldman was correct to rank them neck-and-neck. Barkley is the better receiver while Chubb has the better vision. Barkley has the better measurables while Chubb gets more yards after contact. Both of them have elite top end speed. I think at this time next year we'll be talking about Gurley, Barkley, and Chubb in the same breath.  

Yes, everyone is hyped after the big game with the big run, but keep in mind it came with a rag tag coaching staff two weeks after the HC and OC were fired. Chubb is saddled with a rookie QB who is saddled with no legitimate vertical threats. All things considered we're lucky to see decent games from Chubb, so some excitement for a massive game is warranted. His situation in 2019 will likely be much better than his current situation. 
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To support your point;

I think it's important to note that, in college, pre-injury Nick Chubb was being discussed as potentially being better than Todd Gurley

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2256931-georgia-rb-nick-chubb-is-not-the-next-todd-gurley-he-may-be-better

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/georgia-football/nick-chubb-factor-georgia-secret-weapon-better-gurley/

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/105257712/nick-chubb-todd-gurley-herschel-walker-uga-belk-bowl-louisville-heisman

If Chubb didn't have that injury in college, I think we're absolutely talking about him right now as in the same breath as Gurley and Barkley as generational talents.

 
Considering selling Chubb for WR help but not sure I will get a good enough WR to accept.  He is too fun to watch knowing he could break one from anywhere on the field.  Add in he is now getting receptions and his value is very high.

 
Don't Noonan said:
Considering selling Chubb for WR help but not sure I will get a good enough WR to accept.  He is too fun to watch knowing he could break one from anywhere on the field.  Add in he is now getting receptions and his value is very high.
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seriously?  I would not trade Chubb unless it's a tier 1 WR and even then I would be hesitant.  His ROS is favorable and he's just getting started on what he can deliver.  This is like selling Google stock when it hit $300 (now over $1000) because you think it can't go any higher.

my 2 cents

-DD

 
Devil_Dog said:
seriously?  I would not trade Chubb unless it's a tier 1 WR and even then I would be hesitant.  His ROS is favorable and he's just getting started on what he can deliver.  This is like selling Google stock when it hit $300 (now over $1000) because you think it can't go any higher.

my 2 cents

-DD
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Understood.  I was targeting Beckham for Chubb and one of my WRs.  I still can't find the courage to make the offer though

 
Don't Noonan said:
Understood.  I was targeting Beckham for Chubb and one of my WRs.  I still can't find the courage to make the offer though
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Chubb is my flex. If I could trade him and someone like Lockett for OBJ I wouldn't hesitate. Chubb's value is incredibly inflated after last week. He isn't doing that every week. It was pretty much as easy of a matchup as you can get (ATL is 2nd worst against RBs for fantasy). His value is potentially at an all time high, maybe even higher after week 12 but I don't believe many people have trade deadlines that late. 

His playoff schedule is pretty brutal for weeks 14 and 15. If you manage to make it to the Championship, then you're sitting pretty good there week 16. 

I would disagree that is ROS schedule is favorable. He has CIN after the bye, and CIN week 16. In between are some pretty tough defenses against RBs for fantasy points. I'm a fan, but until we see him doing it against a tough matchup, I'd be hesitant to crown him un-tradeable. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Understood.  I was targeting Beckham for Chubb and one of my WRs.  I still can't find the courage to make the offer though
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Chubb AND a receiver? Who are you offering, Terrelle Pryor?

Sorry, that was uncalled called for. But you get my drift.

 
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EBF said:
It's an ongoing conversation. Look at how LeVeon, Tomlinson, and Lynch started their careers vs. Doug Martin, Anthony Thomas, and Jeremy Hill. One season of production isn't going to provide us with conclusive answers. Now, I'm historically a Chubb supporter and I'm still an owner in dynasty and redraft. His speed at his size is unusual and his moves are better than advertised. I think he's a legit talent. I don't see him flaming out ala A-Train or Jeremy Hill. He may even be a Pro Bowl back if he stays healthy.

All the same, I view Saquon as a supernova type of talent. The kind of back you see once or twice per decade. Even if he's statistically worse than Chubb right now, there's no part of me that believes Chubb is the better back (and I do like Chubb). It's just that there's no more convenient time to hype a player than after the longest run of his career. It's like trying to have a reasonable conversation about Doug Martin after "that" Raiders game in his rookie season. Everyone is on cloud nine.

Big weeks come and go, and in the end it's about who can consistently deliver special moments. I happen to like both of those guys, but for me Chubb is a standout/Pro Bowl type of player, whereas Saquon is a generational/HoF type of player.
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Great post, couldn't agree more. Excited about the browns team composition/commitment to the run going forward in dynasty but they're still the BROWNS until proven otherwise. I'm a Chubb owner and a believer in talent, but I've seen this many a time with rookie RBs and such. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Chubb is my flex. If I could trade him and someone like Lockett for OBJ I wouldn't hesitate. Chubb's value is incredibly inflated after last week. He isn't doing that every week. It was pretty much as easy of a matchup as you can get (ATL is 2nd worst against RBs for fantasy). His value is potentially at an all time high, maybe even higher after week 12 but I don't believe many people have trade deadlines that late. 

His playoff schedule is pretty brutal for weeks 14 and 15. If you manage to make it to the Championship, then you're sitting pretty good there week 16. 

I would disagree that is ROS schedule is favorable. He has CIN after the bye, and CIN week 16. In between are some pretty tough defenses against RBs for fantasy points. I'm a fan, but until we see him doing it against a tough matchup, I'd be hesitant to crown him un-tradeable. 
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Traded in 14 team PPR super flex. Sent him, Chark, Graham, Mark Andrews and mid 3rd for Kerryon, Mack, Corey Davis and late 1st. Sent Davis, Mark Barron and 2nd (5-7) for Diggs and Eric Kendrick’s.

so look at added Kerryon, Diggs and Mack for Chubb. Huge Cleveland homer. 

 
FWIW I offered (2) 1st round draft picks (projected 6-9), (1) 2nd round pick (projected 6-9), Gallup, Barber for Chubb. Rejected. He has a pretty good team, but players are getting older and this would have helped him not only now but in the future. I was surprised. 
I have the draft capital to swing this trade, and he's been valuing Chubb very high all season, so I was just seeing what would happen if I offered a ridiculous trade. I don't think Chubb is worth that much and I would have been fine if he accepted as I am finding I have to over-pay for the guys I want... and I'm okay with that. 
Glad I own him in my other dynasty league. I may make a run at him in the offseason yet when hype has settled down a little bit. 

 
For guys like me, who has Chubb ranked as the #2 RB in this class, and an absolute freak of nature, I wouldnt accept that either.

Is it  a bad offer? Not at all. I imagine some would take it.

But this cat is a top 5 dynast y RB for me now that I know what system he's in, and w the QB he has at the helm. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
FWIW I offered (2) 1st round draft picks (projected 6-9), (1) 2nd round pick (projected 6-9), Gallup, Barber for Chubb. Rejected. He has a pretty good team, but players are getting older and this would have helped him not only now but in the future. I was surprised. 
I have the draft capital to swing this trade, and he's been valuing Chubb very high all season, so I was just seeing what would happen if I offered a ridiculous trade. I don't think Chubb is worth that much and I would have been fine if he accepted as I am finding I have to over-pay for the guys I want... and I'm okay with that. 
Glad I own him in my other dynasty league. I may make a run at him in the offseason yet when hype has settled down a little bit. 
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It’s a fine offer for the future but I don’t see how that would help him now. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
FWIW I offered (2) 1st round draft picks (projected 6-9), (1) 2nd round pick (projected 6-9), Gallup, Barber for Chubb. Rejected. He has a pretty good team, but players are getting older and this would have helped him not only now but in the future. I was surprised. 
I have the draft capital to swing this trade, and he's been valuing Chubb very high all season, so I was just seeing what would happen if I offered a ridiculous trade. I don't think Chubb is worth that much and I would have been fine if he accepted as I am finding I have to over-pay for the guys I want... and I'm okay with that. 
Glad I own him in my other dynasty league. I may make a run at him in the offseason yet when hype has settled down a little bit. 
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That's a lot of okay for a player, by all accounts, could be a top tier RB.  I'll take the quality over quantity.  

 
Don't Noonan said:
Considering selling Chubb for WR help but not sure I will get a good enough WR to accept.  He is too fun to watch knowing he could break one from anywhere on the field.  Add in he is now getting receptions and his value is very high.
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I can’t imagine a realistic WR return on Chubb that would be worth it.  

 
2018 NFL rookie rankings through Week 10

Excerpt:

Chubb’s been left off this list up until now due to sample size, but his usage has been high ever since the Cleveland Browns decided to trade Carlos Hyde to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Chubb hit the 100-touch mark this past weekend, and his play has simply been exceptional. Chubb leads all running backs in terms of overall grade for the season, and he’s been a nightmare for opposing defenses when the ball is in his hands. At PFF, we have a measurement called elusive rating that distills the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking in front of him by looking at how hard he was to bring down: Chubb leads all running backs with a 131.9 elusive rating, no other running back is even above 100. Chubb is currently averaging 5.28 yards after contact per attempt (over 1.5 yards more than Royce Freeman or Austin Ekeler, who are tied for second with an average of 3.69 YCO/A). And of the 53 running backs who’ve carried the ball at least 50 times this season, Chubb ranks first with an average of 0.28 forced missed tackles per attempt.
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Crippler said:
Traded in 14 team PPR super flex. Sent him, Chark, Graham, Mark Andrews and mid 3rd for Kerryon, Mack, Corey Davis and late 1st. Sent Davis, Mark Barron and 2nd (5-7) for Diggs and Eric Kendrick’s.

so look at added Kerryon, Diggs and Mack for Chubb. Huge Cleveland homer. 
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I would rather have Chubb (who wouldnt?) 

 
Biabreakable said:
I would rather have Chubb (who wouldnt?) 
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Obviously me. He is good and I like him but give me 3 nice pieces I can start

in PPR, Kerryon will close the gap on Chubb and is 2 years younger. I think Kerryon is top 10 RB to own. 

Diggs is only 25 and top 15 WR. To drop only a little at RB to grab a useful WR is big

Mack is top 25 LB and if he ever goes back to DE designation, his value would explode. Top 3 there. But in league where 56 LBs start each week, he is good. 

The guy getting Chubb now starts him with John Ross and Jerome Baker. Guarantee The 3 guys outscore that. 

 
davearm said:
Not Gurley and Kamara, but Elliott and Ingram.  Between Chubb's bye and Ingram getting ATL W12 and TB W14, I might only use Chubb a few more games.

Was thinking of offering Chubb for Julio and Aaron Rodgers.
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The only time you should consider starting Ingram over Chubb is if Kamara wasn't playing.

 
Crippler said:
Obviously me. He is good and I like him but give me 3 nice pieces I can start

in PPR, Kerryon will close the gap on Chubb and is 2 years younger. I think Kerryon is top 10 RB to own. 

Diggs is only 25 and top 15 WR. To drop only a little at RB to grab a useful WR is big

Mack is top 25 LB and if he ever goes back to DE designation, his value would explode. Top 3 there. But in league where 56 LBs start each week, he is good. 

The guy getting Chubb now starts him with John Ross and Jerome Baker. Guarantee The 3 guys outscore that. 
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I was just making a joke.

Your reasoning is sound especially in regards to Mack. I actually thought you meant Marlon Mack not Khalil. Diggs is great of course. Your opinion of Johnson is different than mine but I do like him and I may have underestimated him rating him as a tier two RB prospect instead of a tier one RB like Chubb. 

 
Crippler said:
Obviously me. He is good and I like him but give me 3 nice pieces I can start

in PPR, Kerryon will close the gap on Chubb and is 2 years younger. I think Kerryon is top 10 RB to own. 

Diggs is only 25 and top 15 WR. To drop only a little at RB to grab a useful WR is big

Mack is top 25 LB and if he ever goes back to DE designation, his value would explode. Top 3 there. But in league where 56 LBs start each week, he is good. 

The guy getting Chubb now starts him with John Ross and Jerome Baker. Guarantee The 3 guys outscore that. 
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KJ is 1.5 years younger and I think Chubb will widen the gap between them as he increases his role in the passing game. That being said, I don't hate the trade. It's a 14 team league so depth is huge. You just gained 2 nice pieces on offense and I don't play IDP but it sounds like Mack was a nice get. Mack is older but KJ and Diggs should each give you about 8 years of utility. However, as much as I like Diggs, I think I'd have kept Corey Davis over him. Diggs just can't seem to stay healthy and somehow Thielen is getting more targets than him. I know Davis has been up and down this year, but his upside is every bit as good as Diggs' and he's played every game this year, although I know he missed a lot of time as a rookie with a hamstring injury. 

 
Interesting comparison of Ker J and Chubb...... I had a chance to pick either of them in my 12 team PPR league.  Gave up Bell as I am in "Win Now" since #1 in Points & tied for 1st H2H record.   I took Chubb.....but it was a tough call.....  since I needed RB2 this past week (paired J Adams with Kamara)

I view Chubb as slightly more valuable for a few reasons,:

  • Blount in Det getting a few GL TD's 
  • Det Def not allow Off to maintain Run Game (too much play catch up)
  • Chubb is getting more involved in Pass Game 
  • Clev Def is on the rise & improving 
 
Haven’t watched the whole game yet but any data on snap share for Chubb? 

Towards the beginning I saw Duke in there on some third downs but the stat line looks like they already hired Arians and Chubb is transitioning to a feature back.

 
I picked up Chubb once I heard about the Hyde trade.  Within a week I offered Chubb for Leveon Bell and the other owner not only rejected me (understandably) but sent a rare comment back saying it was a terrible offer and countered with Crowell for my Gurley saying that was comparable offer.  So happy he declined now!

 
Hoping he can fill the void for the rest of the season with Melvin Gordon out.  Nice to see a heavy volume when they got up yesterday.

 
heckmanm said:
Crawl on RZ channel said Arians would come back only to coach the Browns.

Yes, have some.
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If they keep winning, does Williams get the HC job?  Obviously Chubb has done well with him as acting HC, but Arians at HC for Chubb at RB sounds so good.

 
Bayhawks said:
If they keep winning, does Williams get the HC job?  Obviously Chubb has done well with him as acting HC, but Arians at HC for Chubb at RB sounds so good.
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For the sake of Browns fans & Mayfield’s development, hopefully they look elsewhere. Looking at their remaining games, hard to seeing them winning more than 1-2 more. Williams will get a legit interview from Dorsey but IMO he’d b a terrible choice for their future.

 
BobbyLayne said:
For the sake of Browns fans & Mayfield’s development, hopefully they look elsewhere. Looking at their remaining games, hard to seeing them winning more than 1-2 more. Williams will get a legit interview from Dorsey but IMO he’d b a terrible choice for their future.
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Agreed.

Greg Williams is bad for the league and should not be coaching.

He does not know #### about the offensive side of the ball or QB development either. If they make him the head coach the offensive coordinator needs to have a lot of control of the offense. 

Williams does have a long track record of success coaching the defensive side of the ball. He has done some really dumb things there as well, such as having Peppers play single high free safety, but generally I think he is a good defensive coach, although I disagree with his motivational tactics.

 
Biabreakable said:
Agreed.

Greg Williams is bad for the league and should not be coaching.

He does not know #### about the offensive side of the ball or QB development either. If they make him the head coach the offensive coordinator needs to have a lot of control of the offense. 

Williams does have a long track record of success coaching the defensive side of the ball. He has done some really dumb things there as well, such as having Peppers play single high free safety, but generally I think he is a good defensive coach, although I disagree with his motivational tactics.
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Probably worth discussing in another thread but I think Freddie Kitchens deserves an interview. Arians would honestly not be a bad hire even with his age. It would give them a reason to stick with Kitchens as OC too. If they had success you may end up with a line of succession, though that rarely happens/works out in the NFL.

 
Don't Noonan said:
I picked up Chubb once I heard about the Hyde trade.  Within a week I offered Chubb for Leveon Bell and the other owner not only rejected me (understandably) but sent a rare comment back saying it was a terrible offer and countered with Crowell for my Gurley saying that was comparable offer.  So happy he declined now!
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I’d be hard pressed not to send back a, “hows that working out for you?” email. 

 
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