Gatorade
Footballguy
Just got him in round 10 as my RB 5. Could not pass up at that price.
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RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (1 Viewer)
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
7 Fumbles last season
200 carries/17 games if he stays healthy which isn't a given as he's missed a few games each of the last 2 seasons
10-15 carries let's say depending on the game and how competitive the Patriots are.
The schedule looks soft, it's one fo the reasons I'm high on Trey Henderson.
I think trey will take the lead before mid season or make it easier for him to get more touches.
There is room for both with a conservative head coach and young but improving QB that doesn't have the type of weapons Burrow and Hurts have at their disposal.
210-156-207 last 3 years for total carries, 180-200 seems reasonable
Josh mcDaniels has been called on for another tour as OC, not sure how that drives the numbers
I still believe in Henderson and think RS has a clear ceiling, Henderson will get more touches as he proves himself and gains the trust of everyone
By Week 8-9 I think most will not be excited about an RS start in their line up as much as the Trey Henderson investors watching the numbers grow
I do think it's a 50/50 split early on, could see RS maybe even have 55/45 edge to start but that will slowly erode over September and October
The Autumn Wind is a patriot
Blustering in from sea ...
200 carries/17 games if he stays healthy which isn't a given as he's missed a few games each of the last 2 seasons
10-15 carries let's say depending on the game and how competitive the Patriots are.
The schedule looks soft, it's one fo the reasons I'm high on Trey Henderson.
I think trey will take the lead before mid season or make it easier for him to get more touches.
There is room for both with a conservative head coach and young but improving QB that doesn't have the type of weapons Burrow and Hurts have at their disposal.
210-156-207 last 3 years for total carries, 180-200 seems reasonable
Josh mcDaniels has been called on for another tour as OC, not sure how that drives the numbers
I still believe in Henderson and think RS has a clear ceiling, Henderson will get more touches as he proves himself and gains the trust of everyone
By Week 8-9 I think most will not be excited about an RS start in their line up as much as the Trey Henderson investors watching the numbers grow
I do think it's a 50/50 split early on, could see RS maybe even have 55/45 edge to start but that will slowly erode over September and October
The Autumn Wind is a patriot
Blustering in from sea ...
elguapo07
Footballguy
While his floor might be solid gotta think his ceiling is limited with Trey in the mix. Looks like a lot of 50 yds rush and .3 TDs weeks. Last few years he's had to compete for carries with Harris Zeke and Gibson. Trey should get the most touches (rush/rec) in this backfield as they haven't had a talent like him in quite some time.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree with the 2nd part. Might disagree with the 1st.
They’re just built so differently. IMO it would be malpractice for the Pats to give Hendo more carries.
Henderson 5’10”, 202
RS 6’ 227
I’m sure Hendo will have more receptions but not sure if that’ll be enough to lead the team in RB touches.
If both are healthy & assuming he buttons down the fumbling, RS should be the up the gut ball carrier, used in short yardage, and isn’t a zero in the passing game himself.
Boston
Footballguy
As stated before...part of Stevenson's appeal was his use in the passing game...that is going to take a very big hit...this is going to be an RBBC (as is happening with most teams) but I think it will be Stevenson that will be more of the complimentary piece not Henderson...Gibson is the x-factor here...the Pats like him and won't hesitate to use him and my guess right now is that is far more of a threat to Stevenson's value than Henderson's.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ironically, historically Gibson is a fumbler also. Led the league a couple years IIRC. I haven’t heard much about him this preseason.
Boston
Footballguy
With the Larison injury it looks like the Pats may only start the season with three RBs...Henderson, Stevenson and Gibson...not much to report on Gibson other than he looks like a solid veteran (we know what he is now) and is going to be involved...IMO how much will depend on what Stevenson shows up this year.
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
Honestly, I didn't watch Henderson at OSU and am not sure how good he is, but I do know Rhamondre's a good back. The fumbling problems and all the Henderson hype has lowered Rhamondre's price to the point he may turn out to be one of the best fantasy draft values when it's all said and done.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Back at practice today, doing football stuff.
But he’s reportedly wearing the non-contact jersey. Makes me think the injury could be a bad bruise or something.
Anyway, sounds like he’s on the right track.
But he’s reportedly wearing the non-contact jersey. Makes me think the injury could be a bad bruise or something.
Anyway, sounds like he’s on the right track.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
For redraft I am seeing him ranking round 7/8. If Stevenson goes around round 10 I will be all over him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I sure hope so - I have way too many shares across dynasty & redraft.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
From FBG
Henderson should also lead the team in rushing this season. Rhamondre Stevenson has the contract to his name, but he has played mediocre football over the last couple of seasons, getting benched for Antonio Gibson multiple times.
Thats a new one, I know he lost snaps due to fumbles... but really wouldn't call it a benching
Henderson should also lead the team in rushing this season. Rhamondre Stevenson has the contract to his name, but he has played mediocre football over the last couple of seasons, getting benched for Antonio Gibson multiple times.
Thats a new one, I know he lost snaps due to fumbles... but really wouldn't call it a benching
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Boston
Footballguy
It was more of a demotion…still not a good thing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, that was not an awesome development last year.
Hopefully he can shore up the ball security.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Sort of. Gibson got the start in Week 5 after Stevenson had back-to-back weeks with a lost fumble, but Stevenson out-touched Gibson 16-7 despite both playing 28 snaps. Gibson got the start again the next week because Stevenson was out with a foot injury. Stevenson outsnapped Gibson in every game since then, from Week 7 until the third quarter of Week 16 when Stevenson lost a fumble in Buffalo. It was all Gibson the rest of that game and the final two games.
Boston
Footballguy
Having Gibson there makes it very easy to pivot away from Stevenson if they lose faith in him…Gibson is a real solid NFL RB…Stevenson can play but he just needs to play at a high-level every week…if he can a Henderson-Stevenson-Gibson backfield can be one of the better ones in the whole league.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The guy has never carried the ball more than about 200 over a season...that's like 12 per game
Anyone think Vrabel is going to run the ball 12 times?
Lots of touches left for Trey who will also likely be the lead reception RB on the team
Why are people so dismissive of Henderson and eager to take RS?
Anyone think Vrabel is going to run the ball 12 times?
Lots of touches left for Trey who will also likely be the lead reception RB on the team
Why are people so dismissive of Henderson and eager to take RS?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The odd thing about that situation is Gibson has almost as troubling a fumble history. He led the league with 6 in 2020. He had 4 in 2023.
On a related note, Ekeler has led the NFL (RB) with 24 fumbles (18 FL). I’ve never thought of him as a fumbler, but noticed that when checking on Gibson. But that’s off topic.
It’s like a poor man’s Gibbs/Montgomery with a qb who can steal TDs
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Are they? Feels the opposite fto me, people avoiding Rhamondre like the plague, which then makes him a decent value in drafts. I still wont be taking him in redraft, but he's a nice piece to hold onto in dynasty for at least the next year - maybe 2.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good point RB
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This is just plain untrue. People are wish casting on Henderson by completely ignoring what really actually happened. Gibson had ZERO games where he out touched Stevenson, He was never benched. Not even once. This is as they say . . . an alternate reality. Here's what I said in the Henderson thread. It's not an opinion. These are facts.
Nothing has changed since I posted this 2 weeks ago. Only the hype for Henderson. Based on a couple of preseason and scrimmage touches on busted plays and holes that were 5 yards wide. The NE OL still isn't very good, and the offense was Bottom 3 in just about everything last year. Maybe they improved offensively to Bottom 5 with Bottom 10 upside. And Maye should pirate almost 100 carries. NE is not an offense people should be expending high fantasy assets on.
For the record, as a starter Stephenson has average 16 touches a game as a starter. That's a pace of 272 touches a year. If people want to knock him for missing time, so be it. He's always had other backs on the team that got the ball. He's never been an exclusive every down back. It's not his fault the NE O-line has been horrid and the offense slightly better than a college FBS team. Henderson will likely evolve into the main back next year or the year after. But McDaniels doesn't normally elevate a rookie RB in his first season.
I could care less what people want to do for their fantasy teams. Draft Kings has Henderson's ADP now at 35. MFL has Stephenson with an ADP at 135. People can draft whomever they want. But IMO, Stephenson is the way better value going 100 picks later, and I have him out touching and outscoring Henderson fantasy wise this year. That's how I see it. YMMV.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
RS has been slowly creeping up the ROC ADP. Seems like folks are catching on a little, plus he looked decent in his preseason game (before the undisclosed injury kept him out of practice)
He's an insane value and in mocks he is avoided like the plague.
Between the Henderson hype and last year's fumbling he's a huge value. I may be proven wrong, but I think the fumbling thing was a one year deal. Based on his previous years, I don't consider him a "fumbler."
He's a talented back. Hell a couple of years ago he was a more than capable RB2 would was catching several passes here and there and running extremely well.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Could you at least take a look at that soft serve schedule they have? It's one of the reasons I'm high on Trey Henderson and some chunk plays running the ball
New head Coach that will emphasize the run and is reshaping the OL. Up and coming young QB that looks promising
I'm just saying it's 2025, let's not live in the past
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s my most owned player in dynasty. Both start-ups he was just too good a value to pass up (14.09, 14.02 respectively)
As a 3rd, 4th or 5th RB he’s going to be useful to teams more than folks think.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'll go there if you want. Yes. Vrabel is a run first guy. It doesn't change that NE is offensively challenged. I'd love NE to be good again. It would get me into watching them and not ready to turn the game off by halftime.
NE was 30th in scoring and 31st in yardage last year. Did they get that much better? Diggs is entering his age 32 season trying to come back from a serious knee injury. That usually doesn't go well. The next time McDaniels get production from a rookie WR (Williams) will be the first. How did the OL get any better? They picked up to rookies and two castoff linemen. The same thing they've done the past 7 years. They are on their 7th OL coach in as many years.
Vrabel did well when he inherited a talented team. NE is not that talented. That's how he lost his job in TEN. He wasn't a miracle worker.
McDaniels without Brady has been bottom 10 as an OC. I don't need to go there again. He had the 22nd ranked offense in points and scoring in his first year in LV. With first team All Pros in Adams and Jacobs and a Pro Bowl QB in Carr.
Lat year, Maye won one game. He got credit for two other wins. One when he was knocked out and Jacoby Brissett entered in the first half to lead a comeback victory. Maye also got the victory in the final came of the year when he played a total of 5 snaps before Milton took over. Maye's passing numbers were significantly worse than Mac Jones' as a rookie, both on a per start and efficiency basis.
Bottom line, the only thing better for NE is an easy schedule. They played 7 games against Bottom 10 defenses last year, too. They averaged 19.4 points and 330 yards per game.
And I am worried that Maye is not a scheme fit for McDaniels offense. He takes a long to process, has been hesitant to get rid of the ball when he is unsure, and gives up a lot of turnovers. But he is someone that is better at downfield throws than precise, well-timed short ones. And he is often better at scrambling and ad libbing, which is not what McDaniels offense is designed for. We say last year that Maye needs time to throw, and NE was one of the worst O-lines in pass protection. He took a ton of sacks.
I'm not saying Maye was the problem or that he wont turn into a decent pro. But, IMO, his 2-3 great plays a game last year dwarfed his 8-10 questionable ones. Yes, he's "promising" as you put it. But IMO, he still doesn't have much to work with and is not at a point where he will make everyone else better. He could be fine with an offense with actual talent, but we wont be able to tell that until they have more talent.
As I mentioned already, the NE offense is likely going to improve from Bottom 3 to Bottom 5-10. Their record will likely be better too, but that's based on playing tomato cans and Coke bottles. But I think they are getting over hyped than they are actually improved.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We don't always agree but I appreciate the time and energy you put into your posts to convince me you're right or I'm not looking at the entire picture and I appreciate it
I still lean on that soft schedule and have a hard time understanding how they won't be super competitive in a lot of games and allow at least a couple of these skill players to succeed
Good OL or not, they did draft Will Campbell at Left Tackle, yeah he's a rookie but I think they will learn on the fly vs so so teams.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I didn't read through this entire thing, just wanted to add Vegas has the patriots at 8.5 wins ... I agree with that, i think they will surprise this year with Vrable, Maye and co.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There are people picking NE for 10, 11, even 12 wins.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. No matter what happens, neither one of us are right or wrong. You are correct, I generally focus more on the past than the future. But that's because I care more about what's already happened to map out what I think will probably happen in the future. Many times I don't even post opinions, I just post results. We all have opinions. They are best guesses on how we see things.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Yeah. but you inject stats and facts, I try when i talk about players to link to their stats so folks can see what the actual production is so i appreciate it
Maybe I didn't say it right but in the world of Shark Pool Debate, you are very strong and you make compelling reasons to stop and look at a few more angles
it's extremely helpful and I know i'm not the only one who think that.
The guy I want on the Patriots doesn't have any regular season stats yet so I guess it's mostly hope and wishful thinking but I like what Trey Henderson is doing
I think he will get every opp he can handle and won't take very long for everyone to see he needs to have the ball in his hands a certain number of times
And yes RS factors in, especially when the Pats are ahead and trying to work some clock in the 2nd half/4th Q
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Again, maybe Henderson really is THAT GOOD. But here are things I wonder about.
- McDaniels in NE often doesn't give a lot of playing time to rookie RBs (or rookie WRs for that matter).
As rookies:
Maroney 175 carries / 22 receptions
Green-Ellis 74 / 3
Vereen 62 / 8 (2nd year)
White 9 / 5
Michel 209 / 7
DHarris 4 / 0
Stevenson 133 / 14
- What NE does in the preseason and training camp has historically not reflected what they do in the regular season, especially with McDaniels. He plays all the young guys, rookies, and new to his system guys a ton in practice and camp to get them reps. That usually does not reflect the depth chart or how much playing time guys will see when the games count.
- I take no stock whatsoever as to what happens in preseason games and tweets of great plays from practice. Because they don't count, they were sessions in shorts, they came against 3rd stringers, etc. You don't see fans projecting what happens in preseason for baseball or basketball to in-season playing time. Those guys typically earn a roster spot and playing time in AAA or the G League. Yet for some reason, football fans try to tie in the preseason to the regular season, and there often isn't usually a tie in like people think there is.
- To be clear, this is not a knock on Henderson. I'm sure he'll be good eventually. I'm just not sure that will be this year. He could be "that good," but they are paying Rhamondre a lot, and I doubt he takes a back seat to Henderson. I would be very surprised if he sent Stevenson to the bench. IMO, the most Henderson could see is a split, and with Gibson there, I don't think a split comes close to 50% of the RB workload (unless Stephenson gets hurt). Stevenson has had 55% of the RB touches since 2022 in the games he played in. If everyone is healthy, I would give 30% to Henderson and 15% to Gibson.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I attribute some of what you are saying to the way New England ran their team when Brady was there and McDaniels was the OC
The Pats did not spend wild money at RB and WR, they loaded up along the OL/DL and DBs typically where they spent money, they didn't even really pay Brady true market value
I think things have changed after watching them flounder the last 2-3 seasons, this will be their 3rd HC in less than 3 years if you want to look at that way, I'm stretching that statement for sure
Sometimes, the players themselves make the plays and make it almost impossible for the coaches to not give them touches
Bucky Irving took almost half a season to finally seize the RB1 role with the Bucs
I'm sure RS will see at least half the carries early in the season but I also believe that Henderson will continue to make plays and get more of workload as the season unfolds
I've been wrong many times, not sure how many Pats' RB have looked like Trey has in the preseason and had this much hype around them.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I'll push back a little for conversational purposes. We have seen a decent amount of Henderson on the football field and not just a couple of busted preseason snaps. More and more people are making comments about his on field ability based on what they see with their eyes. From Edelman, Gruden, Vrabel, Mcdaniels, etc. Other teams coachs like Brian Flores and even other teams players from joint practices are commenting. Everyone who has spent time near him on the football field basically feel like yep, guys legit. I get how Mcdaniels has always used his rbs and I also get the history he has with immediate rookie usage. I think Mcdaniels has some heat on him. Maybe he makes some adjustments to not follow his statistical history. It's not just basic math where 1 plus 1 equals 2 in every situation. Mcdaniels has already said Henderson is the fastest rb he has coached. Maybe change the math problem a bit. One good thing about football is the cream usually rises to the top. I believe Henderson leads this team in touches. Not because of history or analytics or super computer analogies, but because as the season moves on, it will be obvious his on field play demands it. All my opinion of course. Sports is cool because we play the games and find out. Sometimes you eat crow. Sometimes you crow from the mountaintops. Ha ha
rockaction
Footballguy
What’s even more amazing than both of MoP’s and FarFromHome’s airtight appeals to reason, sense, and judgment is that some people are congenital ******** that never learn.
McDaniels is a guy that people loathe. For what appears to be good reasons. He burns bridges in fantastic displays of incompetence wherever he’s been in charge without Belichick. He does nothing right. People want him gone. Those appeals to all those virtues I list above normally mean something to people with a sense of propriety and shame. This man seems to have a natural disposition towards only arrogance and obstreperousness.
Good luck.
McDaniels is a guy that people loathe. For what appears to be good reasons. He burns bridges in fantastic displays of incompetence wherever he’s been in charge without Belichick. He does nothing right. People want him gone. Those appeals to all those virtues I list above normally mean something to people with a sense of propriety and shame. This man seems to have a natural disposition towards only arrogance and obstreperousness.
Good luck.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yes. All of this. While I acknowledge what McDaniels has done with Patriots rookie RBs, we can’t easily separate the impact of McDaniels from Brady. We’ll find out this year I guess.
hey guys, good discussion so far. noting the comments about the fumbles..... nothing can lose a starting gig faster than fumbling the ball too much.
If I were the coach/GM I'd be hoping that kid they drafted earns first team reps out of the gate. Rhamandre is an exciting player at times. makes some good plays. but you cant have the fumbles. you just cant.
I also think that a lot of coaches dont believe in just giving a starting job away. so they will force Henderson to earn it. so Rhamandre may actually start week 1 as the starter or the head of the committee. but I also think if Rhamandre starts fumbling early, hes gonna be punted to the 4th team and Henderson will get the love.
Sometimes with good coaching, you can fix fumbling problems. but sometimes you cannot. from what ive seen the odds seem to be around 50-50. so you can take that for what its worth. but there is (in my opinion) about a 50% chance Rhamadre gets that kick to the curb in the first 6 weeks of the season. He basically needs to be at his best with No fumbles to keep this kid at bay. I'll be honest. I dont know if hes up to the task.
I am a huge Pats fan and I think those numbers are nuts even with the easy schedule and new leadership. 8-9 wins is my range. I think growing pains and lack of cohesion early on for the OL and D will make us lose some tight ones we should have won.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I went under on 8.5 wins; they had 4 wins last yr and doubling you win total your 1st yr in an organization is extremely hard.
As improved as they are at QB / RB / O-Line... they don't have much at receiving and all a team has to do is double up 30ish old Diggs and then you got nothing to speak of. The defense has made some nice FAs but enough to carry them to 5 more games than they won last yr?
As for Stevenson since its his thread... the guy is super undervalued. He'll get his and is one of the best RB4 or 5s. He's going to get out touch and out scored by Henderson; I saw the data earlier about rookie RBs and even though its the same OC... that was an era ago; on top of that NE NEVER had a rookie like Henderson.
The Frankman
Footballguy
The revolution ain't happening yet, folks. Not saying it won't happen, but not this week.
