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RB Samaje Perine, KC (2 Viewers)

Questionable advice right here. There is likely value in this backfield that can be had cheaply if you find the right guy. Thompson is not 100% healthy yet and he had an RB3 pricetag before the injury to Guice. While everyone is overpaying for an injured role player and "fading" the guys likely to handle the bulk of the load, not a bad time to swoop in and grab a lottery ticket. Thompson has only played 16 games once in his career. Not great for a guy still rehabbing and about to turn 28. Speaking of age, I was surprised to see Rob Kelley is about to turn 26. 

The most interesting thing about Perine is that he's only $4 in the subscriber contest. Rob Kelley didn't make the cut or else I'd be tempted to grab them both.
What’s questionable is thinking either of these two bring something to the table. Byron Marshall is more intriguing. Alex Smith is solidified as a high volume QB as long as it’s just Kelley or Perine for an early down role. Snap share and utilization was both ugly and irrelevant in fantasy for Kelley and Perine with Thompson healthy last season.

 
They are both better than Darkwa. 
Darkwa did a hell of a lot more with the same kind of #### OLine last year than Kelley or Perine did and he can catch out of the backfield. I imagine whatever injury he had was far worse than first thought upon him entering free agency.

 
Darkwa did a hell of a lot more with the same kind of #### OLine last year than Kelley or Perine did and he can catch out of the backfield. I imagine whatever injury he had was far worse than first thought upon him entering free agency.
Is that why he's unemployed? 

 
Boy, oh boy. The preseason sure invites all kinds. Good luck to those who defend Perine, Kelley and Jeremy Hill on these boards. This isn’t 1995 football anymore. These players are not good.

 
First there were flat earth truthers. Now there are Orleans Darkwa truthers. Folks, we are here. The end is near. 

 
Breakaway run rate: league average 4.61%; Kelley 3.2%, Perine 1.7%

Fantasy points per opportunity: league average .83; Kelley .56, Perine .63

Yards created per carry: league average 1.27; Kelley .68, Perine .57

Juke rate: league average 23.94; Kelley 15.2, Perine 17.8

Yards per touch: league average 4.9; Kelley 3.6, Perine 4.0

These guys are plodders, both below replacement level. Any street free agent brought in will likely 1) be more athletic, 2) be active is the passing game and 3) put one of the two of them on the street. Gruden can say he doesn’t want to bring someone in but that would be a mistake. 

 
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Breakaway run rate: league average 4.61%; Kelley 3.2%, Perine 1.7%

Fantasy points per opportunity: league average .83; Kelley .56, Perine .63

Yards created per carry: league average 1.27; Kelley .68, Perine .57

Juke rate: league average 23.94; Kelley 15.2, Perine 17.8

Yards pet touch: league average 4.9; Kelley 3.6, Perine 4.0

These guys are plodders, both below replacement level. Any street free agent brought in will likely 1) be more athletic, 2) be active is the passing game and 3) put one of the two of them on the street. Gruden can say he doesn’t want to bring someone in but that would be a mistake. 
So Bibbs might be an upgrade then

 
Breakaway run rate: league average 4.61%; Kelley 3.2%, Perine 1.7%

Fantasy points per opportunity: league average .83; Kelley .56, Perine .63

Yards created per carry: league average 1.27; Kelley .68, Perine .57

Juke rate: league average 23.94; Kelley 15.2, Perine 17.8

Yards pet touch: league average 4.9; Kelley 3.6, Perine 4.0

These guys are plodders, both below replacement level. Any street free agent brought in will likely 1) be more athletic, 2) be active is the passing game and 3) put one of the two of them on the street. Gruden can say he doesn’t want to bring someone in but that would be a mistake. 
Because stats. Got it.  :thumbup:

 
Bojang0301 said:
Boy, oh boy. The preseason sure invites all kinds. Good luck to those who defend Perine, Kelley and Jeremy Hill on these boards. This isn’t 1995 football anymore. These players are not good.
Yea but in Perine and Kelley's case if one of them gets the nod as a starting RB they are worth owning over any handcuff. Personally I think Washington will probably trade for another back-perhaps from Seattle, Denver or Oakland.

 
Yea but in Perine and Kelley's case if one of them gets the nod as a starting RB they are worth owning over any handcuff. Personally I think Washington will probably trade for another back-perhaps from Seattle, Denver or Oakland.
That’s acceptable but I’m still seeing people in best ball take either of them over Peyton Barber and Bilal Powell (both of whom are starters right now). This isn’t some high upside get. It’s a low quality back that is going to split with Thompson and likely to split with the other low quality back. Now can high volume be a smart play on backs like these? Yep, I’ve taken Jamaal Williams enough as a bench stash and I hate him as a talent. I’m not seeing the appeal here. You take them and hope for a Thompson injury? Hasn’t that guy suffered enough? I guess to be fair to that point, I don’t really try to predict or factor in injuries to projections. 

If you put a gun to my head to pick: Rob Kelley. I think the staff has always liked his work ethic and mentality, whereas their opinion of Perine last year appeared to be putrid. I hadn’t even heard them whisper his name until the Guice injury. I don’t know what happened to that guy but his measurables ended up being reflective of who he was when he left college. He certainly was not the same runner his freshman year. Does that mean he can change? Possibly, though unlikely. His freshman year was probably his physical peak and now through injury and deterioration he is what he is. These guys have short shelf lives. It’s why the NCAA cartel and NFL collusion is such BS but that’s a conversation for another day.

 
That’s acceptable but I’m still seeing people in best ball take either of them over Peyton Barber and Bilal Powell (both of whom are starters right now). This isn’t some high upside get. It’s a low quality back that is going to split with Thompson and likely to split with the other low quality back. Now can high volume be a smart play on backs like these? Yep, I’ve taken Jamaal Williams enough as a bench stash and I hate him as a talent. I’m not seeing the appeal here. You take them and hope for a Thompson injury? Hasn’t that guy suffered enough? I guess to be fair to that point, I don’t really try to predict or factor in injuries to projections. 

If you put a gun to my head to pick: Rob Kelley. I think the staff has always liked his work ethic and mentality, whereas their opinion of Perine last year appeared to be putrid. I hadn’t even heard them whisper his name until the Guice injury. I don’t know what happened to that guy but his measurables ended up being reflective of who he was when he left college. He certainly was not the same runner his freshman year. Does that mean he can change? Possibly, though unlikely. His freshman year was probably his physical peak and now through injury and deterioration he is what he is. These guys have short shelf lives. It’s why the NCAA cartel and NFL collusion is such BS but that’s a conversation for another day.
First of all, Crowell is the starter on the Jets and the key words for Barber are "right now" because I think even you realize Rojo is going to take the job from Barber at some point. Personally, I'm looking for guys who will have their peak value in weeks 14-16. Not weeks 1-4. And no, you're not drafting Perine with a hope for a Thompson injury. Last year they split the job into thirds. Thompson (who is still getting up to speed from his last injury) can keep third down duties and leave plenty of work for an early down bruiser. The gamble here is simply that one of the early down players will emerge over the other.

And you don't seem to have a clue when talking about Perine. I'll admit he's a gamble (still trying to figure out if it is one I want to take), but when you talk about work ethic and mentality you show you haven't done your homework. Perine's coaches, teammates, and combine interviews all left the most positive reflections possible about the guy. Top notch work ethic, humble, team first, etc. What got him in trouble last year was fumbling. Something he had not done in college (not literally, but he had a crazy low fumble rate in college).

 
I got around to updating Washington projections. I had 251 carries available after starting back at zero and doing a new Thompson projection. Have a 60/40 split to Kelley over Perine. Has Perine projected at:

150car 585yd 3.9ypc 4TD 

Targets and receptions pretty much irrelevant. He was RB 62. If Demarco or AD signed I would give them ~220 carries and they would have viable fantasy value. My  :2cents: .

 
First of all, Crowell is the starter on the Jets and the key words for Barber are "right now" because I think even you realize Rojo is going to take the job from Barber at some point. Personally, I'm looking for guys who will have their peak value in weeks 14-16. Not weeks 1-4. And no, you're not drafting Perine with a hope for a Thompson injury. Last year they split the job into thirds. Thompson (who is still getting up to speed from his last injury) can keep third down duties and leave plenty of work for an early down bruiser. The gamble here is simply that one of the early down players will emerge over the other.

And you don't seem to have a clue when talking about Perine. I'll admit he's a gamble (still trying to figure out if it is one I want to take), but when you talk about work ethic and mentality you show you haven't done your homework. Perine's coaches, teammates, and combine interviews all left the most positive reflections possible about the guy. Top notch work ethic, humble, team first, etc. What got him in trouble last year was fumbling. Something he had not done in college (not literally, but he had a crazy low fumble rate in college).
What got him in trouble last year was being terrible. Sorry that you wasted a pick on him. I did too. Took him over JuJu. He’s not good.

 
What got him in trouble last year was being terrible. Sorry that you wasted a pick on him. I did too. Took him over JuJu. He’s not good.
100% honest full disclosure: drafted him in zero dynasty leagues last year... but I would have if I could have :bag:  - that's why I remember reading all the glowing reviews from teammates, coaches, and interviewers as well as college fumble rate. So I'll admit I got lucky by circumstance. But now I'm thinking about possibly acquiring him in dynasty and/or redraft. Looking at the facts, his ypc was poor, but his OL was bedraggled by the time he got his shot. Rob was running behind a healthier line and somehow had an even worse ypc. Perine excelled in the passing game when he got a chance. Rob was below mediocre.

I know you think I'm an optimistic bag holder - I'm honestly not. But you do sound a bit like a jaded owner. I get it. Once bitten, twice shy. That's understandable but it can hurt you. Gotta learn to hit reset after the season ends.

 
100% honest full disclosure: drafted him in zero dynasty leagues last year... but I would have if I could have :bag:  - that's why I remember reading all the glowing reviews from teammates, coaches, and interviewers as well as college fumble rate. So I'll admit I got lucky by circumstance. But now I'm thinking about possibly acquiring him in dynasty and/or redraft. Looking at the facts, his ypc was poor, but his OL was bedraggled by the time he got his shot. Rob was running behind a healthier line and somehow had an even worse ypc. Perine excelled in the passing game when he got a chance. Rob was below mediocre.

I know you think I'm an optimistic bag holder - I'm honestly not. But you do sound a bit like a jaded owner. I get it. Once bitten, twice shy. That's understandable but it can hurt you. Gotta learn to hit reset after the season ends.
I reset... I don’t hold grudges. I don’t think he is good. I think his peripheral stats tell his story. I found this interesting: https://twitter.com/stephengill_ts/status/1028356133134786560?s=21

Guy is hopeful about Perine, as others on this board are. I think he’s fighting his own metrics though as I think they reinforce that he has some major issues with the NFL game. Players can definitely change, it’s not like it’s not possible. I could be very wrong. Odds are against Perine though given his output last year, success rate compared to draft postion and poor yards created. Washington’s OLine was very bad last year, obviously that affected him but he wasn’t really doing much independent of that OLine either. Couple that with a bad situation and we’re reaching to have volume that would make him viable. If he shows out the rest of preseason or Kelley/Thompson gets dinged, I’ll gladly reevaluate my stance but for now I’m staying away in most formats where his selection would count for anything.

Also if anyone has his game speed metrics from last year I’d be curious to see it. 

 
I reset... I don’t hold grudges. I don’t think he is good. I think his peripheral stats tell his story. I found this interesting: https://twitter.com/stephengill_ts/status/1028356133134786560?s=21

Guy is hopeful about Perine, as others on this board are. I think he’s fighting his own metrics though as I think they reinforce that he has some major issues with the NFL game. Players can definitely change, it’s not like it’s not possible. I could be very wrong. Odds are against Perine though given his output last year, success rate compared to draft postion and poor yards created. Washington’s OLine was very bad last year, obviously that affected him but he wasn’t really doing much independent of that OLine either. Couple that with a bad situation and we’re reaching to have volume that would make him viable. If he shows out the rest of preseason or Kelley/Thompson gets dinged, I’ll gladly reevaluate my stance but for now I’m staying away in most formats where his selection would count for anything.

Also if anyone has his game speed metrics from last year I’d be curious to see it. 
That guy has some interesting data there. Thanks for sharing it.

I feel like a disciplined rookie is more inclined to follow his blockers to a fault. Maybe he'll be more comfortable this year with deviating from the intended game plan when the blocking isn't working. But if he can get back to not fumbling and continue his high rate of gaining 3+ yards (from that tweet) regardless of blocking, I don't see why he can't get the volume he'd need to be a useful piece in fantasy.

 
Thompson isn’t going to be out. He just said he won’t be 100% healthy to start the season but he expects to play.
Thompson is rarely healthy.  The likelihood he makes it through 16 games seems very, very low (even by NFL RB standards).  If either back steps up they could eventually end up with 3 down touches.

SeniorVBDStudent said:
Agree.  Of course its also important to remember that Jay Gruden and Dan Snyder are idiots.
Jay Gruden seems like a solid coach.  No argument on Daniel Snyder.

 
I know you think I'm an optimistic bag holder - I'm honestly not. But you do sound a bit like a jaded owner. I get it. Once bitten, twice shy. That's understandable but it can hurt you. Gotta learn to hit reset after the season ends.
This is why I think Perine is a good trade target. Many of the people who drafted him probably spent an early rookie pick, passed over players who had more productive or promising rookie seasons, and watched him struggle throughout the year. All trade markets are localized to specific leagues of course, and you may have a stubborn person or a believer holding him, but I imagine many people will see the Guice injury as an opportunity to get out from under their 2017 investment before the season starts and Perine potentially struggles again. If you're even the least bit optimistic, it may be worth a try. Stranger things have happened than a productive college player who was a well-regarded prospect looking like a different guy in his second year.

 
I really don't like posts that speculate whether or not someone owns a player as the basis of their opinion.

 
It matters. Especially on these boards. Bring back up the old locked Christine Michael thread.
It may matter (probably not so much) but the unfounded accusations as a basis of opinion is entirely useless.

"Oh you disagree with my opinion therefore you must be a player X owner and are clearly biased and unable to see the situation with clear objectivity like I can."

Useless.

 
If we held every RB to how they did as a rookie, how would we be doing right now? Is a year to learn acceptable? I'm asking and curious- no tone here

 
If we held every RB to how they did as a rookie, how would we be doing right now? Is a year to learn acceptable? I'm asking and curious- no tone here
Bell was 3.5 ypc, Tomlinson 3.6, Forte 3.9... followed up with 3.6, Melvin Gordon has played 3 seasons without cracking 4 ypc. Mark Ingram started off with back-to-back 3.9 ypc seasons - was considered a bust through 3 years and didn't hit 1000 yards until year 6. Shady's first year paled in comparison to his 2nd year. Freeman was pretty meh as a rookie. 

 
It may matter (probably not so much) but the unfounded accusations as a basis of opinion is entirely useless.

"Oh you disagree with my opinion therefore you must be a player X owner and are clearly biased and unable to see the situation with clear objectivity like I can."

Useless.
A-freaking-men.  It's the laziest tactic out there and more than anything else helps me realize whose posts I can safely ignore, either literally or figuratively.

 
Bell was 3.5 ypc, Tomlinson 3.6, Forte 3.9... followed up with 3.6, Melvin Gordon has played 3 seasons without cracking 4 ypc. Mark Ingram started off with back-to-back 3.9 ypc seasons - was considered a bust through 3 years and didn't hit 1000 yards until year 6. Shady's first year paled in comparison to his 2nd year. Freeman was pretty meh as a rookie. 
Go with 4th rounders and go apples for apples, only Freeman applies on that list I believe. 

 
Before someone says I’m just being a draft capital whore the point being that teams are either way more apt to give up on a 4th rounder or the talent level just isn’t NFL caliber. His odds of defying what he has already done from where he has come from are incredibly low. Freeman was an outlier.

 
Before someone says I’m just being a draft capital whore the point being that teams are either way more apt to give up on a 4th rounder or the talent level just isn’t NFL caliber. His odds of defying what he has already done from where he has come from are incredibly low. Freeman was an outlier.
I agree in general but unless Washington signs some one else - and there’s not much out there - they are either relying on their fourth rounder  or their UDFA, both of which had dismal a ypc last season. But the fact they drafted Guice makes your point though - they in essence did give up on him, but now they may need to go back.

 
I wouldn't do this. That'd penalize him for sharing the rock with Nixon in college which was unfair on draft day too
You wouldn’t do what? He’s not special. If he was special that wouldn’t matter. It didn’t matter for Caddy Williams and Ronnie Brown. It didn’t matter for Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. There is a reason why he fell. Something happened between his freshman year and now that has taken his legs from under him. Go to player profiler and look at the athleticism and production between him and Andre Williams. It’s scary how similar it is. His best case scenario is probably a Bob Turbin career at this point. 

 
Go with 4th rounders and go apples for apples, only Freeman applies on that list I believe. 


Before someone says I’m just being a draft capital whore the point being that teams are either way more apt to give up on a 4th rounder or the talent level just isn’t NFL caliber. His odds of defying what he has already done from where he has come from are incredibly low. Freeman was an outlier.
This is pointless at this juncture. I actually agree with you - yes, they are much more likely to give up on a 4th rounder quicker... and they did! They drafted Guice. Gave up on Perine after one year. It happened and it's done. But the point that my post made was that not all RBs play their best football as a rookie and that was true even of 1st rounders. Therefore, it is very possible Perine figures things out this year now that fortune has smiled upon him and given him a second chance that the organization did not intend to give him.

So now he's got a year of experience and a healthy OL. 2018 should be better than 2017 for him.

 
Breakaway run rate: league average 4.61%; Kelley 3.2%, Perine 1.7%

Fantasy points per opportunity: league average .83; Kelley .56, Perine .63

Yards created per carry: league average 1.27; Kelley .68, Perine .57

Juke rate: league average 23.94; Kelley 15.2, Perine 17.8

Yards per touch: league average 4.9; Kelley 3.6, Perine 4.0

These guys are plodders, both below replacement level. Any street free agent brought in will likely 1) be more athletic, 2) be active is the passing game and 3) put one of the two of them on the street. Gruden can say he doesn’t want to bring someone in but that would be a mistake. 
Todd Gurley's advanced 2016 stats say hi.

 
Haven't we already seen that the best value in this specific backfield is Chris Thompson?

Samjae has a shot to carve his role, but nothing from his failed attempt to do this exact same thing last year gives me great pause in trusting that this is the time Perine is going to do it.

Rob Kelly, while also having a lot to prove, has done it at least. We can argue how successful he was in this role, but I'm avoiding this backfield except for Thompson who will have his role stay steady, and perhaps increase if Perine and Kelly continue to mire themselves in mediocrity.

 
Haven't we already seen that the best value in this specific backfield is Chris Thompson?
I would be surprised if he's healthy enough to play in more than 8 or 9 games. 

Perine is also a guy that seems constantly dinged.  It's the ankle right now, but if he's the starter one the season ramps up I bet he's questionable every week with random shoulder/rib/other boo-boo. 

 
I would be surprised if he's healthy enough to play in more than 8 or 9 games. 

Perine is also a guy that seems constantly dinged.  It's the ankle right now, but if he's the starter one the season ramps up I bet he's questionable every week with random shoulder/rib/other boo-boo. 
Poor Thompson -- aside from the ACL, he has suffered some weird injuries in is football career -- spinal compression fractures, torn labrum, then the broken fibula.

And I don't think Perine has anywhere near the injury history to justify the "constantly dinged" tag.

Bottom line you can't predict injuries, and I don't think that should come into the equation.

I think the fact that Perine has done squat with volume he's been given, and hasn't been able to hold the starting role despite a few opportunities, are the most telling things for me in terms of trend.

 
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And I don't think Perine has anywhere near the injury history to justify the "constantly dinged" tag.
A ding is not an injury. You don't miss a game over a ding.  But you do limp to the sideline and get attention and then usually miss some practice time the next week.  Perine is a guy who is constantly dinged.  It's just a result of his size and battering style.  

 

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