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RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable said:
Yeah I do still like Coleman and Docton, although my optimism for them becomes top 12 at the position has waned since then. Zimmer recently stated that Treadwell just needs to get out of his own way. You are absolutely right in that Diggs and Thielen beng unknowns at that time and while I thought Diggs was very good I could envision Treadwell possibly being better than him.

Treadwell is likely the one I regret the most, as I think I should have known better. In some ways I just made those 3 WR tier one because I thought some player besides Elliot should be tier one players in fantasy. I guessed wrong. Thomas has been tier one and those 3 have not. Shephard I think I got more right than the other WR. He is a tier 2 upside guy. They likely should have all been tier two guys though. I just thought Elliot was too lonely all alone there.

Thats not really rational though is it? So I have changed my view about that and the player has to be really good for me to consider them tier one now.
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I think that's a good way of looking at it that I would concur with. At the time I looked at it as you are describing now with there being Zeke... huge break, then Doctson, Coleman, Treadwell & Henry. Small break and then Shepherd and Thomas. My love for Cooks blinded me to Thomas and I went with Shepherd over him that year :wall: . It's a similar argument that I made about JuJu being currently overvalued in the dynasty thread, I don't think the massive upside is there that others do when there's already an established, not old #1 WR stud. That doesn't mean the player won't be good, just they won't reach the lofts people are propelling his trade value into. I was right about it when people were in love with Michael Floyd but wrong on Thomas, I had anointed Cooks too soon in his case. I may end up wrong on JuJu also. :shrug:

 
Buckna said:
I think that's a good way of looking at it that I would concur with. At the time I looked at it as you are describing now with there being Zeke... huge break, then Doctson, Coleman, Treadwell & Henry. Small break and then Shepherd and Thomas. My love for Cooks blinded me to Thomas and I went with Shepherd over him that year :wall: . It's a similar argument that I made about JuJu being currently overvalued in the dynasty thread, I don't think the massive upside is there that others do when there's already an established, not old #1 WR stud. That doesn't mean the player won't be good, just they won't reach the lofts people are propelling his trade value into. I was right about it when people were in love with Michael Floyd but wrong on Thomas, I had anointed Cooks too soon in his case. I may end up wrong on JuJu also. :shrug:
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I thought Cooks was better than Thomas was certainly a part of it for me as well. I did recognize that Drew Brees is good for any WR though and that perhaps should have propelled him to tier one and ahead of the other 3. From just watching them though they were all pretty much the same level to me. OBJ and Cooks big obstacles to any player trying to earn the most targets on the team, which I for the most part consider a prerequisite for a WR being able to become a top 12 in fantasy. There are a few instances of two WR from the same team both being in the top 12 in a season, but that is pretty rare.

I basically thought Shephard and Thomas were pretty much tied. I thought Shephard might have more receptions but that Thomas would score more because of Brees but otherwise about the same.

I should have known better as one of my favorite writers that I follow considered Mike Thomas a better WR prospect than Laquon Treadwell. That was a somewhat lonely voice in the wilderness though as almost everyone seemed to think Treadwell was great and I think I believed what I heard more than I should have in regards to him. I really didn't see that much that was fantastic about him as a receiver. A very physical guy at the college level was the main thing to like about him and his blocking ability. His routes were often just drags across the middle where he could generate a lot of YAC. You could see from how he was used in college that he may not have top end speed and you need to scheme him open. He has to win a lot of contested situations because he wasn't getting open.

 
So. Where do people think Barkley goes now in a startup dynasty league? Just wondering how high ADP has risen post combine. I think he will deliver. He’s a first rounder in my eyes.

 
Gandalf said:
So. Where do people think Barkley goes now in a startup dynasty league? Just wondering how high ADP has risen post combine. I think he will deliver. He’s a first rounder in my eyes.
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He went 1.6 in a superflex startup I’m doing right now. 

 
Gandalf said:
So. Where do people think Barkley goes now in a startup dynasty league? Just wondering how high ADP has risen post combine. I think he will deliver. He’s a first rounder in my eyes.
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only guys ive got in front of him are Gurley, Zeke, ODB and Hopkins, so #5 for me.

 
Yenrub said:
If the Browns goal is to get a franchise QB and the stud RB

They should take Barkley with the #1 pick then take which ever QB falls to #4. Figure the Colts aren't taking a QB at #3
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I figure they're a prime target if a team wants to trade up. Not sure how much it would cost for a mid 1st like the Cardinals to trade to 3, probably really expensive. 

Gandalf said:
So. Where do people think Barkley goes now in a startup dynasty league? Just wondering how high ADP has risen post combine. I think he will deliver. He’s a first rounder in my eyes.
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It will be the rare league where he doesn't go top 10. Top 5 seems right. I'm not regretting trading Hunt and Cooks for him.

 
BassNBrew said:
It’s already happening pre-draftIt’s already happening pre-draft
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yeah I think hes a perfect bottom of round1 guy in 12 teamers right now. come august his hype might be through the roof with the masses but RB looks damn deep this year.

I mean look at this top 12 ( ppr) :

Leveon Bell

Todd Gurley

David Johnson

Zeke Elliot

Alvin Kamara

Melvin Gordon

Leonard Fournette 

Kareem Hunt 

Dalvin Cook

Christian McCaffrey

Saquon Barkley®

Devonta Freeman

 
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Ack88 said:
I'd go

Zeke, Gurley, Bell, DJ, Brown, Hopkins, Barkley- so 7th overall for me
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I can see the reasoning but I just couldn’t take DJ or Antonio ahead of him in a start up I expect to be around long term. Just too much of a depreciating asset at the top of the first round. Now if I were a team built to win now, perhaps. 

 
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is "firmly in the mix at No. 1 for the Browns."

Barkley (6'0/233) proved to be a versatile, devastating weapon for the Nittany Lions over the past few years. He was already considered to be a near top-five lock, and then he went out and posted a 98th percentile athletic composite score. For Cleveland, the decision at 1.1 will almost assuredly come down to a quarterback or Barkley. If they choose quarterback, it would be a mild surprise if Barkley falls to them at 1.4.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter 

Mar 4 - 4:57 PM
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fruity pebbles said:
I can see the reasoning but I just couldn’t take DJ or Antonio ahead of him in a start up I expect to be around long term. Just too much of a depreciating asset at the top of the first round. Now if I were a team built to win now, perhaps. 
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Bell is five years older too.  I would have towards Barkley there as well

 
I think he’s going to Cleveland and if they don’t draft him it will be their error. You just don’t pass on a guy who is this elite even if his position is devalued. And you have 1.04 to take another player. Then you tell, and pay, cousins or keenum to come to Cleveland because of all the offensive weapons already in place. That is what I would do if GM.

 
Wooters said:
That's great.  You point to the one example there is.  For every example you can give I can give you 20 in the opposite direction.
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When Zeke was at Ohio St. they played against Barkley. When the game was over Zeke said that Barkley was the Truth! How many running backs give other backs credit as being the real deal while they’re both in college?

I pointed to the most recent back (same era) in which it was obvious he would blowup his rookie year yet a lot of people were in denial on this board  just like you. Good luck with all that!

Tex

 
Wooters said:
That's great.  You point to the one example there is.  For every example you can give I can give you 20 in the opposite direction.
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OK, let's start with one.  Name a rookie (to be) RB that was being projected/talked about as going ahead of the #3 (consensus) WR; then we can start to see if they lived up to that draft hype or not.

 
fruity pebbles said:
With Haley in town, I have absolutely no problem with Cleveland.
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I'm definitely not banking on Todd Haley fixing everything that's wrong in Cleveland.

Until Cleveland proves otherwise, you have to figure that going there is not positive for an NFL career or for fantasy.

It doesn't mean he can't succeed, but it is the opposite of going to an optimal situation the way Zeke did.

 
Cleveland is such a horrible landing spot I spent some quality time coming up with a list that goes back at least 10 years of players who disappointed in fantasy solely because they played for the Browns. This is a subjective list, and essentially is players who I think had they not played for the Browns would have been fantasy studs, in other words only thing that held them back was the Browns. Not them, their injuries, drug habits, just the Browns ineptness.

Here is the list:

After that I put together a list of players who had top 10 fantasy seasons with the Browns, left the team and had another top 10 fantasy season:

Here is that list:

Kellen Winslow

Lastly a list of players who had top 10 fantasy seasons with the Browns, left while relatively young and never was top 25 again:

Here is that list:

Trent Richardson

Jordan Cameron

(Braylon just missed the cut)

 
In each of the last two seasons Crowell and Duke have combined for around 2100 total yards on 370-380 total touches. This is without Haley.

 
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FF Ninja said:
I think Cleveland or SF would be good options, as long as Cleveland has competent QB play (would settle for Bradford as a bridge QB) and a healthy OL. Would not be overly excited about NYG or TB.
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Bradford would likely only play 2 weeks then be on IR

 
Saints coach Sean Payton told the MMQB's Peter King that Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is the best RB prospect he's seen in 25 years.

King adds another team he spoke with handed Barkley a perfect grade, only the fifth in the last 20 years. That is quite a statement. Payton was a focal point in trading a future second-round pick to acquire Alvin Kamara last offseason, so his running back evaluations should be heavily respected. To put 25 years in perspective, that is a higher grade than Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Ki-Jana Carter, Marshall Faulk and Garrison Hearst. Every one of those names was selected in the top five.

Source: The MMQB

Mar 5 - 9:08 AM
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Magic_Man said:
Bradford would likely only play 2 weeks then be on IR
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Sure, that's what happened last year, but Bradford played 15 games the year before. Just need him to last long enough for the rookie or Kizer to get comfortable with Haley's offense. I'm not writing Kizer off just yet.

 
FF Ninja said:
Sure, that's what happened last year, but Bradford played 15 games the year before. Just need him to last long enough for the rookie or Kizer to get comfortable with Haley's offense. I'm not writing Kizer off just yet.
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Reportedly his knee condition from last season is degenerative, which not only increases his chances of re-injury but makes him even more immobile back there and thus more likely to take a beating.

 
Let me preface by stating that I absolutely love this kid and think he will have a brilliant career in the NFL.

That said, having seen plenty of his play I’m wondering how much he is going to want to run between the tackles in the NFL.  He seems to want to bounce everything outside, and in the NFL he isn’t going to find that nearly as easy as it was outrunning the edge setters and outside support as it was in college.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Reportedly his knee condition from last season is degenerative, which not only increases his chances of re-injury but makes him even more immobile back there and thus more likely to take a beating.
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Yeah, I saw that news blurb about Zimmer's quote. Taking it with a grain of salt. He's only 30. If the knee was so bad, why would he be skiing on it? I'm not saying you're wrong. It's a good point to bring up. I just don't think it's that big of a deal for a bridge QB.

 
menobrown said:
Cleveland is such a horrible landing spot I spent some quality time coming up with a list that goes back at least 10 years of players who disappointed in fantasy solely because they played for the Browns. This is a subjective list, and essentially is players who I think had they not played for the Browns would have been fantasy studs, in other words only thing that held them back was the Browns. Not them, their injuries, drug habits, just the Browns ineptness.

Here is the list:
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They almost never TRY.  In the last decade how many marquee skill position players have they acquired, either FA or draft?  They went after Dwayne Bowe a few years back, and drafted Trent Richardson high.  Trent obviously flamed out (which is still bizarre, but I don't attribute that to the Browns).  The lack of fantasy production seems to mostly be due to a) constantly drafting and massively overvaluing crappy QB's, b) very rarely signing key impact FA's

 
Cleveland doesn't score points.  The last 3 years they have failed to finish above 30th in Points Scored.

You're simply kidding yourself if you think Cleveland is anything other than a bad landing spot for a fantasy player.

Look at Todd Gurley 2016 vs Todd Gurley 2017 - that's a stark example of the difference between being on a good offense and being on a bad offense.

 
kittenmittens said:
Cleveland doesn't score points.  The last 3 years they have failed to finish above 30th in Points Scored.

You're simply kidding yourself if you think Cleveland is anything other than a bad landing spot for a fantasy player.

Look at Todd Gurley 2016 vs Todd Gurley 2017 - that's a stark example of the difference between being on a good offense and being on a bad offense.
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Disagree.  They have a legit GM now. 

 
menobrown said:
Cleveland is such a horrible landing spot I spent some quality time coming up with a list that goes back at least 10 years of players who disappointed in fantasy solely because they played for the Browns. This is a subjective list, and essentially is players who I think had they not played for the Browns would have been fantasy studs, in other words only thing that held them back was the Browns. Not them, their injuries, drug habits, just the Browns ineptness.

Here is the list:

After that I put together a list of players who had top 10 fantasy seasons with the Browns, left the team and had another top 10 fantasy season:

Here is that list:

Kellen Winslow

Lastly a list of players who had top 10 fantasy seasons with the Browns, left while relatively young and never was top 25 again:

Here is that list:

Trent Richardson

Jordan Cameron

(Braylon just missed the cut)
Click to expand...
I think this has more to do with the fact that Cleveland hasn't really even drafted a good offensive skill position player in the last decade plus.

How many players have been able to achieve top 10 seasons on the Browns at all?

 
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Faust said:
Saints coach Sean Payton told the MMQB's Peter King that Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is the best RB prospect he's seen in 25 years.

King adds another team he spoke with handed Barkley a perfect grade, only the fifth in the last 20 years. That is quite a statement. Payton was a focal point in trading a future second-round pick to acquire Alvin Kamara last offseason, so his running back evaluations should be heavily respected. To put 25 years in perspective, that is a higher grade than Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Curtis Enis, Ki-Jana Carter, Marshall Faulk and Garrison Hearst. Every one of those names was selected in the top five.

Source: The MMQB

Mar 5 - 9:08 AM




 
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Based on some of these valuations, it is funny how easy it is presumed he will most assuredly be the next LT or Faulk and not a smidgen of the possibility that he could become the next KiJana Carter, TRich, Spiller or McFadden.

 
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