RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (5 Viewers)

[travdogg]

@travdogg Drop the deetz, dude!  Who are your 3 pro bowlers and why?

Baker Mayfield is the best player in the draft in my opinion, and the best QB to come out in at least 3 years. His height is the only negative I see about him, and that is a flimsy one at best, since it can be schemed around. Mayfield has a great arm, great accuracy, and top notch competitive spirit. He's also an outstanding decision maker, and knows when to take the shot, and when to check down. I hate comparing unproven rookies to hall of fame caliber guys, but man does Mayfield remind me of Drew Brees. 

Sam Darnold is the prototype NFL QB. His measurements will get him drafted ahead of Mayfield, but his talent isn't that far behind. He's the #2 QB of the last 3 drafts in my opinion. He's a little less NFL ready, and would be best served sitting behind a veteran for a year. Giants would be a perfect fit in my opinion, but it sure sounds like he's headed to Cleveland. He's got very good arm strength and can fit the ball in windows many QB's wouldn't dream of, of course that also gets him into trouble sometimes. In these ways he reminds me of another former USC QB, Carson Palmer. 

Josh Rosen brings a lot of similar things to the table as Darnold, but I think he's closer to a finished product than Darnold is, and likely has a lower ceiling. He's another guy who can fit balls into the tightest of windows, but sometimes makes odd decisions and throws balls that are basically impossible to complete. If I had to make a comparison I'd say Matthew Stafford. Like Stafford, he may be best served to be behind a veteran initially, Stafford never had that luxury, but I feel he'd have benefited from it.

I'd take all 3 of these guys over Barkley without a second thought unless I was set at QB. I also like Quenton Nelson and Derwin James more as well.

I like Mason Rudolph a lot as a nice consolation prize for somebody who waits a bit at QB. He's very accurate and has an underrated arm. He really impressed me with his ability to keep his eyes downfield when pressured. I think he's being unfairly punished because he had great WR's and played in a conference that doesn't play much defense. I'd profile him as sort of what Matt Schaub once was.

Lamar Jackson is a lot more of a sure thing than he is given credit for, but conversely, I think his ceiling is actually a bit lower than most. He's not accurate enough to be a fit for what a lot of teams want to do. He's on the Michael Vick/Tyrod Taylor spectrum. Taylor is probably his floor, but Vick is probably his ceiling. If he goes to a coach who is willing to accept that, and not try to square peg round hole him, he should be a solid NFL starter. He's also a guy who I think could be thrown in instantly, where you deal with the inconsistency and let him take his lumps, because of the big plays he'll bring.

Josh Allen screams bust to me. But, he certainly has everything you look for when he's doing 7-on-7's in shorts. Big, strong arm, mobile. His accuracy and decision making scare the hell out of me. I look at him like this, 5% chance he's Luck, 35% chance he's Bortles, 60% chance he's Locker. I'm 100% confident some team is going to convince themselves they can get the Luck result, and that will lead to him being incredibly over drafted. He's not a guy I'd take in round 1 personally.

A sleeper I like is Luke Falk, he doesn't have a strong arm, but is accurate and usually makes good decisions. He does have a tendency to check down too quickly, but he's a great flier for a team with an older starter, but doesn't want to make big investment. Chargers? Steelers? Saints? Patriots? I could see him being a discount Andy Dalton.

Overall, I think this might be the best QB class since 2004.

 

[Bojang0301]

Baker Mayfield is the best player in the draft in my opinion, and the best QB to come out in at least 3 years. His height is the only negative I see about him, and that is a flimsy one at best, since it can be schemed around. Mayfield has a great arm, great accuracy, and top notch competitive spirit. He's also an outstanding decision maker, and knows when to take the shot, and when to check down. I hate comparing unproven rookies to hall of fame caliber guys, but man does Mayfield remind me of Drew Brees. 

Sam Darnold is the prototype NFL QB. His measurements will get him drafted ahead of Mayfield, but his talent isn't that far behind. He's the #2 QB of the last 3 drafts in my opinion. He's a little less NFL ready, and would be best served sitting behind a veteran for a year. Giants would be a perfect fit in my opinion, but it sure sounds like he's headed to Cleveland. He's got very good arm strength and can fit the ball in windows many QB's wouldn't dream of, of course that also gets him into trouble sometimes. In these ways he reminds me of another former USC QB, Carson Palmer. 

Josh Rosen brings a lot of similar things to the table as Darnold, but I think he's closer to a finished product than Darnold is, and likely has a lower ceiling. He's another guy who can fit balls into the tightest of windows, but sometimes makes odd decisions and throws balls that are basically impossible to complete. If I had to make a comparison I'd say Matthew Stafford. Like Stafford, he may be best served to be behind a veteran initially, Stafford never had that luxury, but I feel he'd have benefited from it.

I'd take all 3 of these guys over Barkley without a second thought unless I was set at QB. I also like Quenton Nelson and Derwin James more as well.

I like Mason Rudolph a lot as a nice consolation prize for somebody who waits a bit at QB. He's very accurate and has an underrated arm. He really impressed me with his ability to keep his eyes downfield when pressured. I think he's being unfairly punished because he had great WR's and played in a conference that doesn't play much defense. I'd profile him as sort of what Matt Schaub once was.

Lamar Jackson is a lot more of a sure thing than he is given credit for, but conversely, I think his ceiling is actually a bit lower than most. He's not accurate enough to be a fit for what a lot of teams want to do. He's on the Michael Vick/Tyrod Taylor spectrum. Taylor is probably his floor, but Vick is probably his ceiling. If he goes to a coach who is willing to accept that, and not try to square peg round hole him, he should be a solid NFL starter. He's also a guy who I think could be thrown in instantly, where you deal with the inconsistency and let him take his lumps, because of the big plays he'll bring.

Josh Allen screams bust to me. But, he certainly has everything you look for when he's doing 7-on-7's in shorts. Big, strong arm, mobile. His accuracy and decision making scare the hell out of me. I look at him like this, 5% chance he's Luck, 35% chance he's Bortles, 60% chance he's Locker. I'm 100% confident some team is going to convince themselves they can get the Luck result, and that will lead to him being incredibly over drafted. He's not a guy I'd take in round 1 personally.

A sleeper I like is Luke Falk, he doesn't have a strong arm, but is accurate and usually makes good decisions. He does have a tendency to check down too quickly, but he's a great flier for a team with an older starter, but doesn't want to make big investment. Chargers? Steelers? Saints? Patriots? I could see him being a discount Andy Dalton.

Overall, I think this might be the best QB class since 2004.

Highly appreciate this post. Pretty infatuated with Derwin James for the IDP side of the house. I really am starting to believe Jacksonville, NE or NO walk out with Lamar or Mason in round 1. 

Edit to add: Any thoughts on Logan Woodside?

 

[Faust]

Understanding Saquon Barkley

 

[travdogg]

Highly appreciate this post. Pretty infatuated with Derwin James for the IDP side of the house. I really am starting to believe Jacksonville, NE or NO walk out with Lamar or Mason in round 1. 

Edit to add: Any thoughts on Logan Woodside?

I'd be surprised if Jackson made it that far. I think he's in play for Miami, Arizona and the Chargers in the 11-20 range. Wouldn't totally rule out the Bengals trying to make a splash. I think Rudolph is in that range you specified though, or possibly Giants/Jets/Broncos at the top of 2, where I think he'd be a sizable steal.

Woodside is a guy who I think gets a shot late. along with Mike White. Small school guys, who put up good numbers against really low competition. White probably has a higher ceiling, but a lower floor. Woodside reacts well to pressure, but there are questions about his accuracy and size. I think they both go in rounds 5-6 or so. Woodside could be a Matt Moore type who hangs around as a decent backup, and White, if he cleans up his mechanics when pressured(which is make or break for him) could maybe hit a Ryan Fitzpatrick level.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

ok so Hyde to the Browns, JStew to the Giants, Crowell to the Jets - Where is Barkley going to land now?? Could it be Denver, Colts, TB? Could he drop to Oak or SF??

While I'd love to see what he could do in the Silver & Black, I can safely say there is no way in hell Barkley will ever fall that far to the Niners at #9, let alone the Raiders at #10.

Agree with @Buckna that there is no way he's getting past the Colts of Bucs at picks at picks 6 and 7.

 

[Phenomena]

He looks like the most polished prospect since Elliot.  I think Zeke's success is going to make him a top-5 pick.  Probably goes #4 to the Browns after they take a QB with the top pick.  

 

[travdogg]

He looks like the most polished prospect since Elliot.  I think Zeke's success is going to make him a top-5 pick.  Probably goes #4 to the Browns after they take a QB with the top pick.  

I agree that Barkley is an Elliott level prospect, but that draft wasn't as QB heavy as this one. I'd also suggest that the Elliott pick wasn't really a big success at all. If they had it to do over again, I think Dallas would certainly choose Jalen Ramsey over him, and possibly DeForest Buckner as well, and those guys both went in the next few picks. 

I still think its pretty likely that Barkley falls out of the top-5. Just too many QB needy teams, and impact players at more important positions.

 

[Super King]

I agree that Barkley is an Elliott level prospect, but that draft wasn't as QB heavy as this one. I'd also suggest that the Elliott pick wasn't really a big success at all. If they had it to do over again, I think Dallas would certainly choose Jalen Ramsey over him, and possibly DeForest Buckner as well, and those guys both went in the next few picks. 

I still think its pretty likely that Barkley falls out of the top-5. Just too many QB needy teams, and impact players at more important positions.

Zeke is the engine to there offense. He makes Dak better. Barkley is maybe better. The Bucs will get a steal when he falls to them. And if he falls to the niners.... we're talking 1st Rd pick in redraft

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'd also suggest that the Elliott pick wasn't really a big success at all. 

Come on. It's one thing to say Ramsey was the better pick, but there's no way the Elliot pick was not a big success. He transformed that offense and made their rookie QB a success also.

 

[travdogg]

Come on. It's one thing to say Ramsey was the better pick, but there's no way the Elliot pick was not a big success. He transformed that offense and made their rookie QB a success also.

Yeah, that was a little bit of hyperbole on my part. The point I was attempting to make, was that Elliott has been very good, but Dallas certainly could have done better, and that even if a RB pans out, he helps less than an elite player at a more important position. 

I would disagree that Elliott transformed the offense, and made Prescott a success. Prescott is good, and the o-line had more to do with his success. I mean, McFadden and Morris averaged 4.6 and 4.8 YPC in the years they saw work. Elliott has been at 5.1 and 4.0. I'm not arguing Elliott isn't better than those guys, but I am saying the running game was just fine without him. Going back even further, Dallas has run essentially the same game plan since late 2013 with Murray. The only time it hasn't worked was in 2015, and that was due to awful QB play, the running game was still solid, and even then, they weren't as bad as their record that year.

My overall point is that in today's NFL, and in hindsight maybe for longer than we think, RB simply isn't worth a top-5 pick no matter how talented the guy is. I like Elliott a lot, and I like Barkley a lot as well. But Barkley being talked about as #1 overall was always silly, and should probably go no higher than 7th. Will he he go higher than that, I'm honestly not sure.

 

[daveR]

If your team (name your team) had the first pick overall, would you take him?    Would you be willing to move up to take him at #1?  For what price?

 

[fruity pebbles]

If your team (name your team) had the first pick overall, would you take him?    Would you be willing to move up to take him at #1?  For what price?

Pats...no. Id rather they draft Brady’s replacement.

 

[az_prof]

If your team (name your team) had the first pick overall, would you take him?    Would you be willing to move up to take him at #1?  For what price?

I like the fact that he is as as close to a sure thing as you get--remember, at least half of those first rounders will bust.  And I do think he is a difference maker. But my team, Vikings, have Cook, so I would rather see them draft an offensive lineman because that is the greater need.

 

[kutta]

If your team (name your team) had the first pick overall, would you take him?    Would you be willing to move up to take him at #1?  For what price?

For sure. Screw QB. Put Barkley in the backfield with David Johnson and the Cardinals would be unstoppable.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I like the fact that he is as as close to a sure thing as you get--remember, at least half of those first rounders will bust.  And I do think he is a difference maker. But my team, Vikings, have Cook, so I would rather see them draft an offensive lineman because that is the greater need.

Far from a sure thing.  He's 233lbs but he runs like he is 190lbs.  His highlight reel looks just like Reggie Bush's despite the size difference.  His yards created on off tackle runs is insanely, almost unrealistically high, but his yards created on inside runs is well below average (and in college, well below average is really bad considering you are being compared to some really bad players).  He disappeared in games like previous generational prospects never did.  Struggled against bad defenses like other generational prospects never did, even with worse QB/line problems (Fournette).  He really struggled to grind out yards when the holes to get him to the outside or second level weren't there.  Again, like other generational RB prospects never did.

I like him, but people are really looking at his 233lb frame and assuming he's the total package.  But he hasn't actually used that 233lb frame yet and unless he does, he's Reggie Bush.

 

[Super King]

Far from a sure thing.  He's 233lbs but he runs like he is 190lbs.  His highlight reel looks just like Reggie Bush's despite the size difference.  His yards created on off tackle runs is insanely, almost unrealistically high, but his yards created on inside runs is well below average (and in college, well below average is really bad considering you are being compared to some really bad players).  He disappeared in games like previous generational prospects never did.  Struggled against bad defenses like other generational prospects never did, even with worse QB/line problems (Fournette).  He really struggled to grind out yards when the holes to get him to the outside or second level weren't there.  Again, like other generational RB prospects never did.

I like him, but people are really looking at his 233lb frame and assuming he's the total package.  But he hasn't actually used that 233lb frame yet and unless he does, he's Reggie Bush.

https://youtu.be/XfMF-uBQGAI

Plenty of inside runs for big gains in that clip. Plenty of runs of him shrugging off would be tacklers, with ease, that had great tackling angles. Barkley's acceleration is elite. Him accelerating at his weight makes so ####### dangerous. He ran outside, cuz he could. ####, he might be able to do that in the NFL. He's that quick and fast. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Far from a sure thing.  He's 233lbs but he runs like he is 190lbs.  His highlight reel looks just like Reggie Bush's despite the size difference.  His yards created on off tackle runs is insanely, almost unrealistically high, but his yards created on inside runs is well below average (and in college, well below average is really bad considering you are being compared to some really bad players).  He disappeared in games like previous generational prospects never did.  Struggled against bad defenses like other generational prospects never did, even with worse QB/line problems (Fournette).  He really struggled to grind out yards when the holes to get him to the outside or second level weren't there.  Again, like other generational RB prospects never did.

I like him, but people are really looking at his 233lb frame and assuming he's the total package.  But he hasn't actually used that 233lb frame yet and unless he does, he's Reggie Bush.

They don't look very similar to me at all in their running style. Barkleys closest comps to me are Tomlinson, David Johnson and Barry Sanders.

 

[DocHolliday]

They don't look very similar to me at all in their running style. Barkleys closest comps to me are Tomlinson, David Johnson and Barry Sanders.

I like the David Johnson comparisons.  

 

[-OZ-]

If your team (name your team) had the first pick overall, would you take him?    Would you be willing to move up to take him at #1?  For what price?

Titans... While I like the Henry and Dion duo, I take Barkley unless a deal that makes the colts/jets trade or Goff deal look cheap.

 

[-OZ-]

I like the David Johnson comparisons.  

Agreed.

But I don't like the Barry comps.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Titans... While I like the Henry and Dion duo, I take Barkley unless a deal that makes the colts/jets trade or Goff deal look cheap.

 

[daveR]

They don't look very similar to me at all in their running style. Barkleys closest comps to me are Tomlinson, David Johnson and Barry Sanders.

He's a very aggressive runner with good lateral moves.  He'll make a move & get back up to speed in an instant.  Not a lot of evidence regarding power running, but why not avoid defenders?  The aggressive approach will play well in the NFL.

 

[Concept Coop]

Far from a sure thing.  He's 233lbs but he runs like he is 190lbs.  His highlight reel looks just like Reggie Bush's despite the size difference.  His yards created on off tackle runs is insanely, almost unrealistically high, but his yards created on inside runs is well below average (and in college, well below average is really bad considering you are being compared to some really bad players).  He disappeared in games like previous generational prospects never did.  Struggled against bad defenses like other generational prospects never did, even with worse QB/line problems (Fournette).  He really struggled to grind out yards when the holes to get him to the outside or second level weren't there.  Again, like other generational RB prospects never did.

I like him, but people are really looking at his 233lb frame and assuming he's the total package.  But he hasn't actually used that 233lb frame yet and unless he does, he's Reggie Bush.

I just looked at Fournette's LSU game logs - and he absolutely disappeared in games, including games against bad defenses.  And I'm not sure LSU's line wasn't better than PSU's.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I just looked at Fournette's LSU game logs - and he absolutely disappeared in games, including games against bad defenses.  And I'm not sure LSU's line wasn't better than PSU's.

Their lines graded out pretty much the same in yards created per rush, also right in the same area as the FSU line that Cook ran behind.  Also note that was only this past year's PSU line that graded as poorly as LSU's, prior to that they were pretty solid.

Regarding the game logs, in his last two years the only games that Fournette got 10+ carries and failed to eclipse 3ypc were both against Alabama.  Even if we bump the cutoff way up to 4ypc that only adds one more game, against another top 10 defense (Florida) in a game where he was so hurt that he was scheduled to miss the game but decided to play injured at the last minute because of a pre-game fight.  If we go back to his freshman year where he was in a timeshare we can find one more such game.

Barkley, just in the last 2 years alone, failed to eclipse 3ypc SIX times, with only one of them coming against a top 10 defense (heck two were against Indiana, and one against Rutgers), which is double the number of times it happened to Fournette, Gurley, and Elliot COMBINED.

Like I said I love the upside in Barkley, but "safe" is not a word I would use for him in the context it was being discussed (as an NFL player.  In fantasy his receiving ability gives him a nice floor).  He struggled when he couldn't get outside, failing to create yards in those games where previous great RB prospects lowered their head and grinded the game out.  HIs yards created on inside runs is REALLY bad.  The guy who measures the stat shrugs it off as "eh, it was the line's fault, look they're as bad as LSU and FSU lines were!" even though Fournette's yards created on inside runs was way above average while playing with a line that he ranked just as badly.

 

[DocHolliday]

Agreed.

But I don't like the Barry comps.

Me neither.  Barry was insanely quick with his cuts.  Never saw anything like it.  

 

[Phenomena]

I agree that Barkley is an Elliott level prospect, but that draft wasn't as QB heavy as this one. I'd also suggest that the Elliott pick wasn't really a big success at all. If they had it to do over again, I think Dallas would certainly choose Jalen Ramsey over him, and possibly DeForest Buckner as well, and those guys both went in the next few picks. 

I still think its pretty likely that Barkley falls out of the top-5. Just too many QB needy teams, and impact players at more important positions.

Lol in a redraft Zeke goes #2 right behind Wentz. He's the biggest impact player from that draft.

The 2016 draft class is looking pretty good. All top 5 players have had good/great success so far.

 

[Hankmoody]

Lol in a redraft Zeke goes #2 right behind Wentz. He's the biggest impact player from that draft.

The 2016 draft class is looking pretty good. All top 5 players have had good/great success so far.

Might wanna say "do over" rather than redraft on a FF board.  It took me about 5 minutes to decipher this.

And Goff still goes 2nd.  QB is too important and Goff hasn't busted - that alone makes him 1.02 and he actually looked pretty darn good last year.  QB goes in that situation all day long.  EZE is in the conversation for 1.03 though.

 

[JohnnyU]

Me neither.  Barry was insanely quick with his cuts.  Never saw anything like it.  

Barry is the all-time leader in negative yardage.

 

[DocHolliday]

Barry is the all-time leader in negative yardage.

Ok.  He sucked.  

 

[JohnnyU]

Ok.  He sucked.  

I think he was the second best RB of all time, just making a coment that he is the all time leader in negative yardage.

 

[zed2283]

What is the 1.1 worth?  Guy in my league won't come off of it.

 

[Andrew74]

What is the 1.1 worth?  Guy in my league won't come off of it.

I wish I knew.  I offered the 1.02 + 1.05 + 1.08 and got crickets. 

 

[zed2283]

I wish I knew.  I offered the 1.02 + 1.05 + 1.08 and got crickets. 

Sounds pretty solid!

 

[Zyphros]

What is the 1.1 worth?  Guy in my league won't come off of it.

I just acquired it for the 1.04, 1.07 and 1.10, which I thought was reasonable.  It would honestly take a another guy who is top5 at their position on top of that for me to give it up.  

 

[Otis]

I have 1.1.  I might consider 1.2 through 1.6. Not sure I’d do it though. Seriously. 

 

[mcintyre1]

So, I'm really considering trying to move up to grab 1.01 and Barkley in a kind of weird league that boosts RB scoring by giving more points per yard for rushing vs receiving, and a small amount of points per carry.

I offered David Johnson straight up for 1.01, but the guy countered with 1.01, 2.01 for David Johnson, Stefon Diggs, and the 2.05. Normally I'd say that's far too rich for my blood, but WRs are a bit devalued in the league, and I've got decent depth at WR. I'd also still have the 1.05 to pick up another young RB, or maybe the top rookie WR. I do like David Johnson, but the wrist injury does worry me a little bit (seems odd to miss the entire year with a wrist injury), and he's already at prime RB age with only 1 top season under his belt due to coming in to the league so old. Add to that the risk involved with Bradford helming that offense and I'm really thinking about pulling the trigger. Any thoughts?

 

[kutta]

So, I'm really considering trying to move up to grab 1.01 and Barkley in a kind of weird league that boosts RB scoring by giving more points per yard for rushing vs receiving, and a small amount of points per carry.

I offered David Johnson straight up for 1.01, but the guy countered with 1.01, 2.01 for David Johnson, Stefon Diggs, and the 2.05. Normally I'd say that's far too rich for my blood, but WRs are a bit devalued in the league, and I've got decent depth at WR. I'd also still have the 1.05 to pick up another young RB, or maybe the top rookie WR. I do like David Johnson, but the wrist injury does worry me a little bit (seems odd to miss the entire year with a wrist injury), and he's already at prime RB age with only 1 top season under his belt due to coming in to the league so old. Add to that the risk involved with Bradford helming that offense and I'm really thinking about pulling the trigger. Any thoughts?

I mentioned earlier I traded DJ and received the 1.01 and 2.01. And I’m as big a DJ fan as there is.

But, I agree with your thoughts. New offense, new coach, new QB, and coming off a missed year. There is reason to believe he’s not going to be the far and away top FF player like he was a couple years ago.

I would pull the trigger on that trade. Heck, I’d probably actually do Diggs and DJ for 1.01 without the swap of 2’s. Diggs  has a new QB too, so there are some questions there also.

 

[Phenomena]

I wish I knew.  I offered the 1.02 + 1.05 + 1.08 and got crickets. 

That's craziness.  If your league has a large number of roster spots to stash prospects, you gotta keep the 2/5/8.

Barkley could end up in a really bad situation. All the top drafting teams have either bad/no QB and/or bad offensive line. 

One of the reasons Zeke exploded was that Dallas, despite drafting high, had an excellent o-line. And they got a miracle with Prescott in the 3rd and ended up with a good QB situation, too.  

 

[Andrew74]

That's craziness.  If your league has a large number of roster spots to stash prospects, you gotta keep the 2/5/8.

Barkley could end up in a really bad situation. All the top drafting teams have either bad/no QB and/or bad offensive line. 

One of the reasons Zeke exploded was that Dallas, despite drafting high, had an excellent o-line. And they got a miracle with Prescott in the 3rd and ended up with a good QB situation, too.  

I do have those picks plus 2.03 and 2.07.  I will need to pick up a kicker and DEF by season’s start, so I’ll need to cut 7 players eventually. I have 4 no brainers, so some of the offer had that in mind.  I thought it was expensive.  Right now I’ve resigned myself to keeping those picks. 

 

[kutta]

That's craziness.  If your league has a large number of roster spots to stash prospects, you gotta keep the 2/5/8.

Barkley could end up in a really bad situation. All the top drafting teams have either bad/no QB and/or bad offensive line. 

One of the reasons Zeke exploded was that Dallas, despite drafting high, had an excellent o-line. And they got a miracle with Prescott in the 3rd and ended up with a good QB situation, too.  

I own the 1.01 and would not accept that offer for it.

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

I traded 1.02, 1.08 and 1.10 for 1.01 about a month ago and would not accept the reverse if I held the 1.01.

 

[Faust]

✔@DanGrazianoESPN

Dave Gettleman was absolutely glowing today when talking about Saquon Barkley: "He's big, he's powerful, he can step on the gas, he's got different levels of speed, he catches the heck out of the ball and he gets the blitz pickup stuff. He's real."

11:47 AM - Mar 27, 2018

 

[Gandalf]

I traded 1.02, 1.08 and 1.10 for 1.01 about a month ago and would not accept the reverse if I held the 1.01.

Of course not. Dumb trade for the other guy.

 

[Gandalf]

That's craziness.  If your league has a large number of roster spots to stash prospects, you gotta keep the 2/5/8.

Barkley could end up in a really bad situation. All the top drafting teams have either bad/no QB and/or bad offensive line. 

One of the reasons Zeke exploded was that Dallas, despite drafting high, had an excellent o-line. And they got a miracle with Prescott in the 3rd and ended up with a good QB situation, too.  

It’s this kind of logic re Barkley that will cost fantasy teams for decades. Don’t over think it. Draft Barkley wherever he lands.

 

[msudaisy26]

That's craziness.  If your league has a large number of roster spots to stash prospects, you gotta keep the 2/5/8.

Barkley could end up in a really bad situation. All the top drafting teams have either bad/no QB and/or bad offensive line. 

One of the reasons Zeke exploded was that Dallas, despite drafting high, had an excellent o-line. And they got a miracle with Prescott in the 3rd and ended up with a good QB situation, too.  

If Barkely is as good as we think, he will make the situation good. Peterson went to a spot as a guy that was going to share carries and that didn't last, Gurley went to the Rams and even Jeff Fischer couldn't hold him back his rookie year, Trent Richardson went to a bad spot and did fine his rookie year. Then he got fat and sucked. 

 

[Hankmoody]

I wish I knew.  I offered the 1.02 + 1.05 + 1.08 and got crickets. 

Lost in all the noise and hype about Barkley is the fact that Guice is really, really good too and the premium between 1.01 and 1.02 is significantly overblown IMO.  If we knew Barkley were in a best-case like EZE then maybe, maybe some of these trades make sense.  But he's not yet and that probably doesn't even exist now - SFO might be the closest thing.  As a 1.01 owner in two leagues I'm pretty sure I'd take that offer, and if I didn't it would be because I think someone will beat it.  But I wouldn't leave it on the table going into the draft.

 

[Hankmoody]

If Barkely is as good as we think, he will make the situation good. Peterson went to a spot as a guy that was going to share carries and that didn't last, Gurley went to the Rams and even Jeff Fischer couldn't hold him back his rookie year, Trent Richardson went to a bad spot and did fine his rookie year. Then he got fat and sucked. 

Well that's the first question.  Second is why can't Guice do the same thing?  Penny?  Michel?  That's what studs do - they make the situation good.  I agree Barkley's got a ton of potential and would put him right in that Gurley/EZE tier coming out of college, but the current prices aren't reflecting that - they are putting him in Gurley/EZE territory right now and that's just nutty.

 

[Concept Coop]

Their lines graded out pretty much the same in yards created per rush, also right in the same area as the FSU line that Cook ran behind.  Also note that was only this past year's PSU line that graded as poorly as LSU's, prior to that they were pretty solid.

Regarding the game logs, in his last two years the only games that Fournette got 10+ carries and failed to eclipse 3ypc were both against Alabama.  Even if we bump the cutoff way up to 4ypc that only adds one more game, against another top 10 defense (Florida) in a game where he was so hurt that he was scheduled to miss the game but decided to play injured at the last minute because of a pre-game fight.  If we go back to his freshman year where he was in a timeshare we can find one more such game.

Barkley, just in the last 2 years alone, failed to eclipse 3ypc SIX times, with only one of them coming against a top 10 defense (heck two were against Indiana, and one against Rutgers), which is double the number of times it happened to Fournette, Gurley, and Elliot COMBINED.

Like I said I love the upside in Barkley, but "safe" is not a word I would use for him in the context it was being discussed (as an NFL player.  In fantasy his receiving ability gives him a nice floor).  He struggled when he couldn't get outside, failing to create yards in those games where previous great RB prospects lowered their head and grinded the game out.  HIs yards created on inside runs is REALLY bad.  The guy who measures the stat shrugs it off as "eh, it was the line's fault, look they're as bad as LSU and FSU lines were!" even though Fournette's yards created on inside runs was way above average while playing with a line that he ranked just as badly.

Have you've checked AP's game logs?   He failed to hit 4 YPC in 11 games; and 3 YPC twice.

This feels nitpicky to the point of hyperbole.  When asked to, Barkley absolutely lowered his shoulder and moved the pile.  That wasn't what the offense highlighted, the way LSU's did - but he's absolutely capable.  Rather than look at the game logs, we can watch his carries in those games in a few minutes each.  Sure he gambles a bit, but to blame him when guys are in his face at the snap doesn't seem wise to me.  

(And PFF has its holes at the NFL level - so trying to grade across different college conferences is a bit much for me. Barkley's line was trash a lot more often than it wasn't.)

I have no idea where you get Reggie Bush from and suggesting he's not safe is quite the hot take.  You're literally the only person I've seen make that claim.  He's as safe as it gets.

 

[bengalbuck]

Well that's the first question.  Second is why can't Guice do the same thing?  Penny?  Michel?  That's what studs do - they make the situation good.  I agree Barkley's got a ton of potential and would put him right in that Gurley/EZE tier coming out of college, but the current prices aren't reflecting that - they are putting him in Gurley/EZE territory right now and that's just nutty.

I agree to some extent with this point. If one of the other running backs ends up showing elite skills early in their career, the team will eventually change the offense to be built around them. David Johnson is a prime example of a RB being way better than the team expected (remember AZ wanted Ameer Abdullah and were pissed they had to settle for DJ) and almost forcing his way into a massive role. 

Where I disagree though is that the chances that an offense gets completely built around one of those guys is much lower because of the investment required for a team to take Barkley. As with Fournette last year and Zeke the year before, if you are a team taking a running back in the top-5, it is because you believe both in his talent and in the team building philosophy of investing in your OL and making sure your lead back gets 20-25 touches a game. No team will use a super premium pick on Barkley without being dead set on him seeing a ton of touches. If you believe that Barkley is going to go top-5, then you can feel extremely confident he is going to be a centerpiece of the offense and won't be part of a committee.

If a guy like Penny or Michel go in the 2nd or 3rd round, it could be to a team that philosophically believes in using multiple backs and spreading the touches around. Or to a team that already has a very good back but wants to add depth. You just don't know what the team's plan is because the cost isn't so high that they have to be committed to a ton of touches to get their money's worth.

 

[bengalbuck]

I'm a big Barkley fan/believer but I do think some of the hype is going too far. I saw the following trade in one of my leagues this week:

David Johnson, Stefon Diggs, 2.05

for

1.01, 2.01

I can see the case for already valuing Barkley the same as DJ or even slightly ahead (big age difference). But a Stefon Diggs sized gap?