RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (2 Viewers)

[menobrown]

I think this has more to do with the fact that Cleveland hasn't really even drafted a good offensive skill position player in the last decade plus.

How many players have been able to achieve top 10 seasons on the Browns at all?

Trent, Cameron and Winslow in last 10 seasons had top 10 seasons.

My point was that the Browns as a franchise are not keeping players from having fantasy success. Close to zero statistical info exists to back up this assertion. They just have been unable to assemble the right players and the few that have been talented have had major drug or injury issues. There is nothing to suggest that the franchise history is going to drag down Barkley unless you just believe in luck or curses or something and feel like going to Browns increases his injury risk or is going to turn him to a life of drugs. I don't.

My only concern at all with the Browns is a little more simple.  Duke is a good pass catching RB and in year one or as long as they play together he might syphon off a little of Barkley's work in the passing game.

 

[fruity pebbles]

In my league, Crowell and Dukes combined stats would have been the 2nd scoring RB behind only Gurley.  I know it’s not as easy as combining two guys stats but they did have only 380 touches which isn’t far from what Barkley will probably get. Not too mention he’s far superior than either of those two and they added Haley, who’s system helped make Leveon great.

 

[kittenmittens]

Trent, Cameron and Winslow in last 10 seasons had top 10 seasons.

My point was that the Browns as a franchise are not keeping players from having fantasy success. Close to zero statistical info exists to back up this assertion. They just have been unable to assemble the right players and the few that have been talented have had major drug or injury issues. There is nothing to suggest that the franchise history is going to drag down Barkley unless you just believe in luck or curses or something and feel like going to Browns increases his injury risk or is going to turn him to a life of drugs. I don't.

My only concern at all with the Browns is a little more simple.  Duke is a good pass catching RB and in year one or as long as they play together he might syphon off a little of Barkley's work in the passing game.

I just believe that good offenses produce more fantasy points than bad offenses.

I'm not saying that going to Cleveland means he's a bust, just that it's the opposite of the optimal situation in which he goes to a team that already has a good offense to plug him into.  Duke being there also doesn't help since it might hurt his passing game touches like you said.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I think he’s going to Cleveland and if they don’t draft him it will be their error. You just don’t pass on a guy who is this elite even if his position is devalued. And you have 1.04 to take another player. Then you tell, and pay, cousins or keenum to come to Cleveland because of all the offensive weapons already in place. That is what I would do if GM.

Me too and it seems so obvious which means CLE will do something else.  As someone who will be drafting Barkley with the 1.01, I hope CLE does something else.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Me too and it seems so obvious which means CLE will do something else.  As someone who will be drafting Barkley with the 1.01, I hope CLE does something else.

In the space of about 1 hr from the start of this year’s draft, CLE could easily turn into one of the more dynamic offenses in the league.

 

[Pipes]

Based on some of these valuations, it is funny how easy it is presumed he will most assuredly be the next LT or Faulk and not a smidgen of the possibility that he could become the next KiJana Carter, TRich, Spiller or McFadden.

Of course there is a chance just like there is a chance with every highly regarded prospect.  Nothing is 100% guaranteed.  However if I'm going to take a shot on someone I'm going to put my eggs in the basket of a physical freak who by all accounts is a great person as well. 

 

[Gandalf]

Of course there is a chance just like there is a chance with every highly regarded prospect.  Nothing is 100% guaranteed.  However if I'm going to take a shot on someone I'm going to put my eggs in the basket of a physical freak who by all accounts is a great person as well. 

The chance is less than 1% that Barkley bust, if you take out injuries

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

In the space of about 1 hr from the start of this year’s draft, CLE could easily turn into one of the more dynamic offenses in the league.

Definitely but their history of inadequacy is hard to ignore.  So as a future owner of Saquon, I'd rather he go to another team but I also realize being drafted by CLE is not necessarily a death sentence.

 

[Gandalf]

Definitely but their history of inadequacy is hard to ignore.  So as a future owner of Saquon, I'd rather he go to another team but I also realize being drafted by CLE is not necessarily a death sentence.

I think Cleveland is an okay landing spot based on their team and weapons. Sucks for Duke Johnson though.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think Cleveland is an okay landing spot based on their team and weapons. Sucks for Duke Johnson though.

At least Duke's a FA after this season.

If Barkley ends up in Cleveland, Duke will be a potential buy-low dynasty target. Especially since the 2019 rookie RB class looks weak and Duke should be one of the top backs on the market this time next year. 

 

[Gandalf]

At least Duke's a FA after this season.

If Barkley ends up in Cleveland, Duke will be a potential buy-low dynasty target. Especially since the 2019 rookie RB class looks weak and Duke should be one of the top backs on the market this time next year. 

Even more reason to draft Barkley if you are Cleveland 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think Cleveland or SF would be good options, as long as Cleveland has competent QB play (would settle for Bradford as a bridge QB) and a healthy OL. Would not be overly excited about NYG or TB.

So "As long as we assume the Browns successfully do that thing they've failed to do pretty much every year of their entire 18 season expansion franchise, they'll be fine!"? 

 

[Gandalf]

So "As long as we assume the Browns successfully do that thing they've failed to do pretty much every year of their entire 18 season expansion franchise, they'll be fine!"? 

I know - all they have to do this year is sign cousins or Keenum. Just get either guy and take Barkley. Isn’t that better than rookie QB and duke johnson?

 

[voiceofunreason]

The chance is less than 1% that Barkley bust, if you take out injuries

 It’s been said so many times about so many busts. If you believe this you are crazy.

 

[Faust]

At the Combine, Saquon Barkley showed he’s both an absurdly fast big guy and an absurdly strong little guy

 

[Faust]

2018 NFL Draft: Why Saquon Barkley To The Cleveland Browns At No. 1 Makes Perfect Sense

Will the Browns really draft Saquon Barkley first overall? There are pros and cons

 

[Gandalf]

 It’s been said so many times about so many busts. If you believe this you are crazy.

This time actually is different. His game tape and combine numbers back that up.

 

[voiceofunreason]

This time actually is different. His game tape and combine numbers back that up.

Yeah it’s different this time, lol. That’s what guys say every single year.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Yeah it’s different this time, lol. That’s what guys say every single year.

If you’re that talented, it’s almost always injury, off the field stuff or laziness that holds you back. Cant really think of a RB who busted with his talent level that didn’t have one of those issues.

 

[Gandalf]

Yeah it’s different this time, lol. That’s what guys say every single year.

Hmmm. Are we allowed to propose a bet on this site with each other? Because if so I have an idea.

 

[Gandalf]

If you’re that talented, it’s almost always injury, off the field stuff or laziness that holds you back. Cant really think of a RB who busted with his talent level that didn’t have one of those issues.

Exactly my point. Trent Richardson maybe but he did get injured and may have had off field issues affecting him. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Trent was a combo of injury and laziness.

 

[kittenmittens]

If you’re that talented, it’s almost always injury, off the field stuff or laziness that holds you back. Cant really think of a RB who busted with his talent level that didn’t have one of those issues.

Or you get drafted by a team where you don't fit the scheme and or the clubhouse.  

Marshawn Lynch in Buffalo was a bust because of a combination of these.  I'd say AP in New Orleans this year was another example of bad scheme fit.  

Scheme fit is actually really important for most positions. 

 

[Gandalf]

Or you get drafted by a team where you don't fit the scheme and or the clubhouse.  

Marshawn Lynch in Buffalo was a bust because of a combination of these.  I'd say AP in New Orleans this year was another example of bad scheme fit.  

Scheme fit is actually really important for most positions. 

Lynch was not a bust in buffalo. They gave up on him in part because of shenanigans 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Hmmm. Are we allowed to propose a bet on this site with each other? Because if so I have an idea.

You’re giving 99 to 1 odds so put me down for 20 bucks.

 

[Gandalf]

You’re giving 99 to 1 odds so put me down for 20 bucks.

I had something cooler in mind. If Barkley is a top 10 back within 3 years, you send me his jersey. If he’s not a starter I will send you a jersey of your favorite player. You will say no because if the odds, but I do think some versions of this would be a fun bet

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This time actually is different. His game tape and combine numbers back that up.

I love Barkley but the comment was way out there.

People come up with the reasons post-haste for the busts.  No one was questioning Trent's work ethic as a prospect.

Saquon has very real red flags about his ability to grind out games when there isn't a lot of space to run.  He struggled with that way more than the last few great running back prospects.  He disappeared for really long stretches that at his alleged talent level he really shouldn't have.

 

[Super King]

Dude's a stud. He didn't grind it out in college, because he didn't need to. Why run over people when you can just go around them? We've seen him bull people on the inside. If I had the 1.1 in dynasty, I'd probably have a constant erection. Lol

 

[Gandalf]

I love Barkley but the comment was way out there.

People come up with the reasons post-haste for the busts.  No one was questioning Trent's work ethic as a prospect.

Saquon has very real red flags about his ability to grind out games when there isn't a lot of space to run.  He struggled with that way more than the last few great running back prospects.  He disappeared for really long stretches that at his alleged talent level he really shouldn't have.

Okay well I guess we will see. I think - note it’s my opinion here - that he is as good as advertised. Anyone can string together a few bad games during a season.  I have not felt this way about a prospect ever.  I don’t say this every year.  Could I be wrong?  Sure.  But I don’t think so. He’s going to be the 1.1 overall by this time next year.  I think.

 

[FF Ninja]

So "As long as we assume the Browns successfully do that thing they've failed to do pretty much every year of their entire 18 season expansion franchise, they'll be fine!"? 

Hey now... I know everyone likes to pretend like JG was the only free agent QB this offseason, but I think it would actually be hard for the Browns to botch this one. I'm not a huge Keenum fan, but I think Bradford, Bridgewater, and Keenum would all suffice for the Browns' needs. I do fear they might invest too much in AJ McCaron, but they've got the cap space to do it. I don't understand their infatuation with him, but he might be a mistake. However, even if they do that, Kizer in year 2 might be significantly improved. He was seen by many as the most raw prospect and in most need of sitting a year. I'm not writing him off after one season. So they might already have a decent QB on their roster. But even if they don't, there are plenty of options out there and they've got their pick of the litter of a very nice rookie QB class. So I see no need to hold previous regimes' failures against the current regime. This is Dorsey's first crack at it.

It sounds like Joe Thomas is healthy and returning, so I think this could be one of the better OL units in the league. Barkley could thrive in Cleveland. I know it sounds crazy, but it's possible. I like his chances there better than NYG or TB. However, slipping to 9 to go to SF would probably be the safest landing spot.

 

[Gandalf]

I love Barkley but the comment was way out there.

People come up with the reasons post-haste for the busts.  No one was questioning Trent's work ethic as a prospect.

Saquon has very real red flags about his ability to grind out games when there isn't a lot of space to run.  He struggled with that way more than the last few great running back prospects.  He disappeared for really long stretches that at his alleged talent level he really shouldn't have.

Also to your last point. Barkley can catch. So if I am a coach facing an 8 man front. I might try some screen passes to open things up. That means Barkley will still get his. Look at Todd Gurley. Barkley just needs to land in a spot not coached by Jeff Fisher.

 

[FF Ninja]

Marshawn Lynch in Buffalo was a bust

Wait, what? Lynch had one bad season in Buffalo. In his first two season, his per game average was 77 rushing yards, 2.3 receptions, 17 rec yards, 0.6 TDs per game. The 16 game equivalent would be 1229 yds, 37 rec, 277 yds, 9 TDs

 

[bengalbuck]

Hey now... I know everyone likes to pretend like JG was the only free agent QB this offseason, but I think it would actually be hard for the Browns to botch this one. I'm not a huge Keenum fan, but I think Bradford, Bridgewater, and Keenum would all suffice for the Browns' needs. I do fear they might invest too much in AJ McCaron, but they've got the cap space to do it. I don't understand their infatuation with him, but he might be a mistake. However, even if they do that, Kizer in year 2 might be significantly improved. He was seen by many as the most raw prospect and in most need of sitting a year. I'm not writing him off after one season. So they might already have a decent QB on their roster. But even if they don't, there are plenty of options out there and they've got their pick of the litter of a very nice rookie QB class. So I see no need to hold previous regimes' failures against the current regime. This is Dorsey's first crack at it.

It sounds like Joe Thomas is healthy and returning, so I think this could be one of the better OL units in the league. Barkley could thrive in Cleveland. I know it sounds crazy, but it's possible. I like his chances there better than NYG or TB. However, slipping to 9 to go to SF would probably be the safest landing spot.

I'm curious what you're hearing on this. I've heard rumors that he's down to ~270 pounds and there are reports he's been auditioning for announcing/commentary jobs over the last few weeks. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Okay well I guess we will see. I think - note it’s my opinion here - that he is as good as advertised. Anyone can string together a few bad games during a season.  I have not felt this way about a prospect ever.  I don’t say this every year.  Could I be wrong?  Sure.  But I don’t think so. He’s going to be the 1.1 overall by this time next year.  I think.

I agree with you.  But 99:1 is massively overstating it.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm curious what you're hearing on this. I've heard rumors that he's down to ~270 pounds and there are reports he's been auditioning for announcing/commentary jobs over the last few weeks. 

I read it a couple weeks ago. Maybe sleeperbot? I can't recall now, but I remember thinking "that's reassuring for whoever gets drafted/signed by CLE." Maybe things have changed.

 

[Ditka Butkus]

If Cleveland goes Barkley number 1 they better hit on the QB position....Otherwise they will end up like the Detroit Lions and Barry Sanders

 

[Gandalf]

I agree with you.  But 99:1 is massively overstating it.

The point I was trying to make is that he is the best prospect I have ever seen at RB.  What odds for busting do you give the best RB you have ever seen??? 

 

[Faust]

Dane Brugler view:

Why Saquon Barkley falls a hair behind Ezekiel Elliott as the more impressive RB entering the NFL

Excerpt:

Is Saquon Barkley looking more impressive than Zeke did coming into the NFL draft?

Brugler: Barkley is the freakier athlete, there isn't much debate about that. However, I have a higher grade on Zeke as a college prospect than Barkley because Zeke gets the edge in the RB-specific traits like vision, patience and decision-making. And in the NFL, that matters more. I love Barkley and expect him to be an outstanding back. But he falls a hair behind Zeke in my mind.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Dane Brugler view:

Why Saquon Barkley falls a hair behind Ezekiel Elliott as the more impressive RB entering the NFL

Excerpt:

Can understand that view after watching nearly every carry this season. Although I’d be curious how his vision, patience and decision making would rank if he didn’t have a division 2 offensive line. He was a very different runningback his freshman year. Patience this season would have dropped him for a five yard loss on a majority of carries.

 

[kittenmittens]

Wait, what? Lynch had one bad season in Buffalo. In his first two season, his per game average was 77 rushing yards, 2.3 receptions, 17 rec yards, 0.6 TDs per game. The 16 game equivalent would be 1229 yds, 37 rec, 277 yds, 9 TDs

I guess we have a different version of bust.  His average yards per carry were disappointing and the Bills increasingly preferred Fred Jackson.  

They were about to cut him before the trade.  When your first round pick doesn't make it through his rookie contract he is a bust IMO. 

The two "good" years were passable for fantasy,  but not good for what Buffalo wanted.  Don't really want to debate this further, but the point was that good players sometimes don't work out because of locker room and scheme fit. 

 

[FF Ninja]

I guess we have a different version of bust.  His average yards per carry were disappointing and the Bills increasingly preferred Fred Jackson.  

They were about to cut him before the trade.  When your first round pick doesn't make it through his rookie contract he is a bust. 

The two "good" years were passable for fantasy,  but not good for what Buffalo wanted.  Don't really want to debate this further but the point was that good players sometimes don't work out because of locker room and scheme fit. 

You shouldn't want to debate a losing point any further. A guy averaging a 16g equivalent of 1500 yards and 9 TDs is not bust territory at all. With better QB play it could've been phenomenal, but instead it was just good.

I understand the point you were trying to make, but in reality the scheme/surrounding talent held back a talented player, but it didn't completely stop him from producing or turn him into a bust. Lynch's talent was still evident and his production was good.

 

[Otis]

So giddy about having the #1 pick for the first time ever in my near 20-year dynasty league.  Talk about stepping in ####.  

Just so in love with this guy.  

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I guess we have a different version of bust.  His average yards per carry were disappointing and the Bills increasingly preferred Fred Jackson.  

They were about to cut him before the trade.  When your first round pick doesn't make it through his rookie contract he is a bust IMO. 

The two "good" years were passable for fantasy,  but not good for what Buffalo wanted.  Don't really want to debate this further, but the point was that good players sometimes don't work out because of locker room and scheme fit. 

I agree with this. I don’t care what the extrapolated numbers say, I remember when Lynch was in BUF and he seemed like a bust. Nobody was predicting him to become Beast Mode back then. 

 

[Buckna]

I agree with this. I don’t care what the extrapolated numbers say, I remember when Lynch was in BUF and he seemed like a bust. Nobody was predicting him to become Beast Mode back then. 

Agreed, Lynch lost his starting job to a 28 year old former Europe/arena league RB in Freddie Jackson mid way through his "only bad season." People had totally written him off by the time he got traded for peanuts to Seattle the following year. He actually played even worse for Seattle the 2nd half of that season. It wasn't until the following year that he finally started to put it together and he really didn't really become Beast Mode until Wilson was drafted.

If we are talking fantasy, then sure, he wasn't a bust right out the gate those first few seasons. But neither were TRich or Reggie Bush or Ronnie Brown or Ryan Mathews Jeremy Hill or Eddie Lacy... Many guys look like a fantasy force only to flame out altogether or squeek out only a few decent seasons here and there (Doug Martin or McFadden for ex), or in the case of Bush, didn't really put it together until they were playing on their next team like Skittles.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Why yes I can.  There are waaaay more draft busts, than draft successes.  This is such a factual figure, that I'm not going to waste my time with it.  

But the level of hype surrounding Barkley, he needs more than success...he needs superstardom.  He's far from guaranteed that, and I'll take the under every day of the week.  

I'm in!  How much you wanna bet?

 

[Faust]

Eric Dickerson raining on the parade:

NFL Draft 2018: Eric Dickerson says Saquon Barkley isn't best player on the board

 

[Bojang0301]

While it wouldn’t change my mind on 1.01 the worst case scenario is for Barkley to go to NYG. That line has been putrid for years on end now.

 

[FF Ninja]

While it wouldn’t change my mind on 1.01 the worst case scenario is for Barkley to go to NYG. That line has been putrid for years on end now.

There's talk that they might have 5 new starters this year. As bad as the OL has been, I could see that being even worse.

 

[fruity pebbles]

While it wouldn’t change my mind on 1.01 the worst case scenario is for Barkley to go to NYG. That line has been putrid for years on end now.

I think the worst case is the Jets sans Cousins.

 

[Pipes]

Why yes I can.  There are waaaay more draft busts, than draft successes.  This is such a factual figure, that I'm not going to waste my time with it.  

But the level of hype surrounding Barkley, he needs more than success...he needs superstardom.  He's far from guaranteed that, and I'll take the under every day of the week.  

No there is not.  If you compare him to all the draft picks then yes but compare him to the guys rated in the same stratosphere as him and it's a short list.  Yes there have been some can't miss RB busts like Trent Richardson and Kijana Carter but there have been some hits to like Elliot and Gurley.  Making a broad claim about way more draft busts is comparing Apples to Oranges its ridiculous. 

Also is the bust rate for RB's drafted in the 1st round any higher than for other positions?  Like QB?  Probably not.  I would argue the Barkley doesn't have a higher probability to bust than whoever else they draft which is the point you seem to be making.