EBF, How much does McFadden have to put on, to go up in BMI?i think the big question is who has room to grow? Some of these smaller guys can hit the weight-room and add some bulk with some hard work
He'd have to gain 7 pounds to get to Peterson's BMI of 28.6. He'd have to gain 22 pounds to get to the top 30 RB BMI average of 30.5. He's very thin by NFL RB standards. He doesn't have the lower body bulk you usually see and I doubt weight training will correct the issue.EBF, How much does McFadden have to put on, to go up in BMI?i think the big question is who has room to grow? Some of these smaller guys can hit the weight-room and add some bulk with some hard work
Thanks.He'd have to gain 7 pounds to get to Peterson's BMI of 28.6. He'd have to gain 22 pounds to get to the top 30 RB BMI average of 30.5. He's very thin by NFL RB standards. He doesn't have the lower body bulk you usually see and I doubt weight training will correct the issue.EBF, How much does McFadden have to put on, to go up in BMI?i think the big question is who has room to grow? Some of these smaller guys can hit the weight-room and add some bulk with some hard work
Usually what you see is what you get when you talk about RB prospects entering the league. The only recent guy I can think of who put on a lot of pounds after being drafted is Portis. He is listed at 5'11" 204 on his draftscout prospect profile. He is listed at 5'11" 223 on his NFL.com profile. Most of the guys who are going to get big do it while they're in college. Kevin Jones started his college career as a speed back, but had grown into a power back by the time the draft came around. He went from about 205 to 220-225 over the course of his three years at Va Tech. These high level college football players are basically professional athletes. Football is their job. And if they play at a D1 school, you can bet they're involved in some type of rigorous weight training program. So the idea that they're suddenly going to gain 10-15 pounds when they get to the NFL seems a little misguided. I think only players who haven't quite filled out their frames can get bigger. If I had to guess about this year's RBs, I'd say Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles, and Steve Slaton look like they could maybe add 5-10 pounds. Mendenhall and Stewart are maxed out. Ditto Rice and Hart. I don't see Chris Johnson or Darren McFadden getting much bigger. Forte and Choice are already at the ideal size.i think the big question is who has room to grow? Some of these smaller guys can hit the weight-room and add some bulk with some hard work
Funny you mention Portis - I singled him out as a smaller back last night with a leaguemate and got corrected. Was shocked he was 223. btw... how are those weights determined? Is there a formal weigh each year? Teams just do it on their own? The NFL mandate anything?Usually what you see is what you get when you talk about RB prospects entering the league. The only recent guy I can think of who put on a lot of pounds after being drafted is Portis. He is listed at 5'11" 204 on his draftscout prospect profile. He is listed at 5'11" 223 on his NFL.com profile.
btw... how are those weights determined? Is there a formal weigh each year? Teams just do it on their own? The NFL mandate anything?
that's what a number of observers have said. those two guys aren't headliners in this draft but, as NFL RBs go, they are straight from central casting. if they grade out well, these are some terrific sleeper picks.Forte and Choice are already at the ideal size.
You sure put the BM in BMI.Ok, back to topic.1.1 Stewart - 33.71.2 Mendenhall - 32.31.3 Hart - 31.31.4 Choice - 30.81.5 Rice - 30.31.6 Felix - 29.71.7 Slaton - 29.11.8 Charles - 27.91.9 McFadden - 27.81.10 Johnson - 27.5 Thats how the rook draft would go based on BMI.So McFadden would be the 9th best RB. Hart 3rd.OK, so I guess I don't have to trade up to get McFadden.This was turning into a good topic.So do you use BMI?You've got your very own topic that the mods have left open just for you to be a tool in. How about limiting that activity to just one place.TIAGet the point.All because McFadden is too tall, and has skinny legs.Ok, I get it. How much would McFadden have to gain to get a better BMI?
You wont be saying that when Stewart runs a 4.55 40Not a bad thing for a RB. Mendenhall and Stewart anre the perfect size. Rice needs to add about 15 lbs. Good to see Chalres well under his listed 6'-1" toSlaton and Rice shorter than I thought, but Slaton has put on some weight. It's sort of comical that almost every back on that list in an inch or two shorter than their press guide height.f course if you are a WR...DeSean Jackson....fizzle.
I bet he'll run at least 4.45-4.48, not that it really matters all that much.You wont be saying that when Stewart runs a 4.55 40Not a bad thing for a RB. Mendenhall and Stewart anre the perfect size. Rice needs to add about 15 lbs. Good to see Chalres well under his listed 6'-1" toSlaton and Rice shorter than I thought, but Slaton has put on some weight. It's sort of comical that almost every back on that list in an inch or two shorter than their press guide height.f course if you are a WR...DeSean Jackson....fizzle.
redman said:You sure put the BM in BMI.Maroney=Speed said:Ok, back to topic.1.1 Stewart - 33.71.2 Mendenhall - 32.31.3 Hart - 31.31.4 Choice - 30.81.5 Rice - 30.31.6 Felix - 29.71.7 Slaton - 29.11.8 Charles - 27.91.9 McFadden - 27.81.10 Johnson - 27.5 Thats how the rook draft would go based on BMI.So McFadden would be the 9th best RB. Hart 3rd.OK, so I guess I don't have to trade up to get McFadden.King of the Jungle said:This was turning into a good topic.Maroney=Speed said:So do you use BMI?wdcrob said:You've got your very own topic that the mods have left open just for you to be a tool in. How about limiting that activity to just one place.TIAMaroney=Speed said:Get the point.All because McFadden is too tall, and has skinny legs.Ok, I get it. How much would McFadden have to gain to get a better BMI?
I used the RB combine #'s from nfldraftscout.com from 1999-2007 to determine their BMI.
Year Total >33 <28 OK % OK1999 30 1 6 23 762000 34 1 7 26 762001 20 1 2 17 852002 36 2 4 30 832003 24 3 3 18 752004 23 2 0 21 912005 28 2 2 24 852006 25 1 0 24 962007 28 2 2 24 85Total 249 15 26 207 83.5%Since most of the players are within the parameters, then most of starting RB's will also be within the parameters.Of the 207 that were within the range, 117 of them were drafted = 56.5%
Of the 41 that were outside of the range, 24 of them were drafted = 58.5%
Players taken within the 1st 3 rounds with < 28 BMI
Canidate, Trung
Brown, *Chris
Booker, Lorenzo
Players taken within the 1st 3 rounds with > 33 BMI
Williams, Ricky
Dayne, Ron
Jordan, Lamont
Duckett, *T.J.
Players taken within the 1st 3 rounds with >28 and < 33 BMI (63 players)
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
James, *Edgerrin
Faulk, Kevin
Montgomery, Joe
Cloud, Mike
Zereoue, *Amos
Johnson, J.J.
Alexander, Shaun
Chapman, Doug
Droughns, Reuben
Jones, Thomas
Lewis, *Jamal
Prentice, Travis
Redmond, J.R.
Barlow, Kevan
Bennett, *Michael
Henry, Travis
Jackson, James
McAllister, Deuce
Minor, Travis
Thomas, Anthony
Tomlinson, LaDainian
Betts, Ladell
Foster, DeShaun
Gordon, Lamar
Green, *William
Morris, Maurice
Portis, *Clinton
Westbrook, Brian
Johnson, Larry
Fargas, Justin
McGahee, *Willis
Smith, *Musa
Bell, Tatum
Jackson, *Steven
Jones, *Kevin
Jones, Greg
Jones, Julius
Perry, Chris
Arrington, J.J.
Benson, Cedric
Brown, Ronnie
Clarett, *Maurice
Gore, *Frank
Moats, *Ryan
Morency, *Vernand
Shelton, *Eric
Williams, Carnell
Addai, Joseph
Bush, *Reggie
Calhoun, *Brian
Drew, *Maurice
Maroney, *Laurence
Norwood, Jerious
White, *LenDale
Williams, DeAngelo
Henry, *Chris
Hunt, Tony
Irons, Kenny
Jackson, *Brandon
Leonard, Brian
Lynch, *Marshawn
Peterson, *Adrian
Wolfe, Garrett
*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
Jevy: The BMI calculations you listed were from prior scouting combines? I couldn't find the data - would you please list the heights and weights of each of these RBs taken in the 1st 3 rounds. I'd like to compare them to the current listed ht/wt's per latest nfl rosters. In some cases, it appears there has been considerable 'bulking up' by some of these players in the intervening years since their draft (for ex., J. Lewis)In my own analysis, there is a HUGE drop off in the success rate of RBs taken in rounds 2-3 relative to round 1, which indicates that drafting based on the scout's 'eye test' ie, breaking down the tape' is really the best predictor of future success.I used the RB combine #'s from nfldraftscout.com from 1999-2007 to determine their BMI.
Year Total >33 <28 OK % OK1999 30 1 6 23 762000 34 1 7 26 762001 20 1 2 17 852002 36 2 4 30 832003 24 3 3 18 752004 23 2 0 21 912005 28 2 2 24 852006 25 1 0 24 962007 28 2 2 24 85Total 249 15 26 207 83.5%Since most of the players are within the parameters, then most of starting RB's will also be within the parameters.Of the 207 that were within the range, 117 of them were drafted = 56.5%
Of the 41 that were outside of the range, 24 of them were drafted = 58.5%
Players taken within the 1st 3 rounds with < 28 BMI
Canidate, Trung
Brown, *Chris
Booker, Lorenzo
Players taken within the 1st 3 rounds with > 33 BMI
Williams, Ricky
Dayne, Ron
Jordan, Lamont
Duckett, *T.J.
Players taken within the 1st 3 rounds with >28 and < 33 BMI (63 players)
mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("
James, *Edgerrin
Faulk, Kevin
Montgomery, Joe
Cloud, Mike
Zereoue, *Amos
Johnson, J.J.
Alexander, Shaun
Chapman, Doug
Droughns, Reuben
Jones, Thomas
Lewis, *Jamal
Prentice, Travis
Redmond, J.R.
Barlow, Kevan
Bennett, *Michael
Henry, Travis
Jackson, James
McAllister, Deuce
Minor, Travis
Thomas, Anthony
Tomlinson, LaDainian
Betts, Ladell
Foster, DeShaun
Gordon, Lamar
Green, *William
Morris, Maurice
Portis, *Clinton
Westbrook, Brian
Johnson, Larry
Fargas, Justin
McGahee, *Willis
Smith, *Musa
Bell, Tatum
Jackson, *Steven
Jones, *Kevin
Jones, Greg
Jones, Julius
Perry, Chris
Arrington, J.J.
Benson, Cedric
Brown, Ronnie
Clarett, *Maurice
Gore, *Frank
Moats, *Ryan
Morency, *Vernand
Shelton, *Eric
Williams, Carnell
Addai, Joseph
Bush, *Reggie
Calhoun, *Brian
Drew, *Maurice
Maroney, *Laurence
Norwood, Jerious
White, *LenDale
Williams, DeAngelo
Henry, *Chris
Hunt, Tony
Irons, Kenny
Jackson, *Brandon
Leonard, Brian
Lynch, *Marshawn
Peterson, *Adrian
Wolfe, Garrett
*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();
I bet he'll run at least 4.45-4.48, not that it really matters all that much.You wont be saying that when Stewart runs a 4.55 40Not a bad thing for a RB. Mendenhall and Stewart anre the perfect size. Rice needs to add about 15 lbs. Good to see Chalres well under his listed 6'-1" toSlaton and Rice shorter than I thought, but Slaton has put on some weight. It's sort of comical that almost every back on that list in an inch or two shorter than their press guide height.f course if you are a WR...DeSean Jackson....fizzle.
Not a great time for Stewart as, He starts His slip slip away.I bet he'll run at least 4.45-4.48, not that it really matters all that much.You wont be saying that when Stewart runs a 4.55 40Not a bad thing for a RB. Mendenhall and Stewart anre the perfect size. Rice needs to add about 15 lbs. Good to see Chalres well under his listed 6'-1" toSlaton and Rice shorter than I thought, but Slaton has put on some weight. It's sort of comical that almost every back on that list in an inch or two shorter than their press guide height.f course if you are a WR...DeSean Jackson....fizzle.
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He ran .04 seconds faster than Lynch and only .07 seconds behind Peterson. That's a very good time for a 235 pound man. He also had the best vertical jump of any of the RB prospects. He locked up a spot in the top 25 today.Not a great time for Stewart as, He starts His slip slip away.I bet he'll run at least 4.45-4.48, not that it really matters all that much.You wont be saying that when Stewart runs a 4.55 40Not a bad thing for a RB. Mendenhall and Stewart anre the perfect size. Rice needs to add about 15 lbs. Good to see Chalres well under his listed 6'-1" toSlaton and Rice shorter than I thought, but Slaton has put on some weight. It's sort of comical that almost every back on that list in an inch or two shorter than their press guide height.f course if you are a WR...DeSean Jackson....fizzle.
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I guess will see.He ran .04 seconds faster than Lynch and only .07 seconds behind Peterson. That's a very good time for a 235 pound man. He also had the best vertical jump of any of the RB prospects. He locked up a spot in the top 25 today.Not a great time for Stewart as, He starts His slip slip away.I bet he'll run at least 4.45-4.48, not that it really matters all that much.You wont be saying that when Stewart runs a 4.55 40Not a bad thing for a RB. Mendenhall and Stewart anre the perfect size. Rice needs to add about 15 lbs. Good to see Chalres well under his listed 6'-1" toSlaton and Rice shorter than I thought, but Slaton has put on some weight. It's sort of comical that almost every back on that list in an inch or two shorter than their press guide height.f course if you are a WR...DeSean Jackson....fizzle.
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Wow dude. I don't think I read anywhere in this post that anyone was basing their entire rookie rankings on a BMI! It's just like any other fact, chart, number, ratio, percentage or argument. You use it as anohter building block to form a more cohesive ranking list. How much weight you put on it is up to you. No matter what the stat is, you can find at least one NFL player throughout history that succeeds in spite of it.Maroney=Speed said:Ok, back to topic.1.1 Stewart - 33.71.2 Mendenhall - 32.31.3 Hart - 31.31.4 Choice - 30.81.5 Rice - 30.31.6 Felix - 29.71.7 Slaton - 29.11.8 Charles - 27.91.9 McFadden - 27.81.10 Johnson - 27.5 Thats how the rook draft would go based on BMI.So McFadden would be the 9th best RB. Hart 3rd.OK, so I guess I don't have to trade up to get McFadden.King of the Jungle said:This was turning into a good topic.Maroney=Speed said:So do you use BMI?wdcrob said:You've got your very own topic that the mods have left open just for you to be a tool in. How about limiting that activity to just one place.TIAMaroney=Speed said:Get the point.All because McFadden is too tall, and has skinny legs.Ok, I get it. How much would McFadden have to gain to get a better BMI?
You show up late for the party, without any beer? Who is this guy?Wow dude. I don't think I read anywhere in this post that anyone was basing their entire rookie rankings on a BMI! It's just like any other fact, chart, number, ratio, percentage or argument. You use it as anohter building block to form a more cohesive ranking list. How much weight you put on it is up to you. No matter what the stat is, you can find at least one NFL player throughout history that succeeds in spite of it.Maroney=Speed said:Ok, back to topic.1.1 Stewart - 33.71.2 Mendenhall - 32.31.3 Hart - 31.31.4 Choice - 30.81.5 Rice - 30.31.6 Felix - 29.71.7 Slaton - 29.11.8 Charles - 27.91.9 McFadden - 27.81.10 Johnson - 27.5 Thats how the rook draft would go based on BMI.So McFadden would be the 9th best RB. Hart 3rd.OK, so I guess I don't have to trade up to get McFadden.King of the Jungle said:This was turning into a good topic.Maroney=Speed said:So do you use BMI?wdcrob said:You've got your very own topic that the mods have left open just for you to be a tool in. How about limiting that activity to just one place.TIAMaroney=Speed said:Get the point.All because McFadden is too tall, and has skinny legs.Ok, I get it. How much would McFadden have to gain to get a better BMI?
Hey madd.I got the info from nfldraftscout.com. They have a menu which links as far back as 1999.Jevy: The BMI calculations you listed were from prior scouting combines? I couldn't find the data - would you please list the heights and weights of each of these RBs taken in the 1st 3 rounds. I'd like to compare them to the current listed ht/wt's per latest nfl rosters. In some cases, it appears there has been considerable 'bulking up' by some of these players in the intervening years since their draft (for ex., J. Lewis)
In my own analysis, there is a HUGE drop off in the success rate of RBs taken in rounds 2-3 relative to round 1, which indicates that drafting based on the scout's 'eye test' ie, breaking down the tape' is really the best predictor of future success.
Of the 26 RBs taken in the 1st round since 1999, only 8 WERE NOT or have not been superior performers at least until significant injury:
R. Williams (high BMI +DRUGS), Dayne (high BMI), Canidate (low BMI), Wm Green (Character issues/substance abuse), Duckett (High BMI), C. Perry, C Benson and Deangelo Williams. I think that most would argue that the jury is still out on Deangelo Williams, and give him a pass. Excluding Williams and injuries, 7 out of 25 is a 28% 'failure rate'/ 72% 'success' rate. Not too shabby.
While BMI>33/<28 is indicated in 4 of these 8 cases of underperformance, the sample size appears too small to conclude definitively that BMI plays a significant part, especially when the Ricky Williams wash-out was primarily a drug/ character issue. But BMI outside of the parameters definitely should raise a flag.
But by my count, of the 41 rbs taken in rounds 2 & 3, only 6 have stood out as superior performers so far: T Henry, Portis, Westbrook, Gore, MJD, and Lendale White. This is only a 15% 'success' rate.
I haven't spent any time trying to find a predictor of sucess for RBs taken after round 1. For dynasty purposes tho, I would be inclined to draft any rb selected in the 1st round, and pass on any rb taken after, with the hope to trade for those who subsequently prove themselves.
I would especially be interested in reviewing the combine ht/wt or BMI for Reggie Bush and Lendale White, because intuitively I would think that Bush would have fallen into the low BMI category, and White on the >33 BMI side, but your data suggest that is not the case.
So far, my conclusion is this: While BMI parameters raise a flag in the cases of McFadden and Stewart, I would be most inclined to go with 'the tape' and draft any 1st rounder. But assuming Mendenhall and Jones go in the 1st round, they appear to be the 'safer' picks. I will be very suprized if Rice or Charles make it into round 1. And if they do not, after the 1st rounders, I'll go with the best veteran available when it is my turn to pick.
I've got beer! You should have told me you were dry. I'd have floated you a few pops!You show up late for the party, without any beer? Who is this guy?Wow dude. I don't think I read anywhere in this post that anyone was basing their entire rookie rankings on a BMI! It's just like any other fact, chart, number, ratio, percentage or argument. You use it as anohter building block to form a more cohesive ranking list. How much weight you put on it is up to you. No matter what the stat is, you can find at least one NFL player throughout history that succeeds in spite of it.Maroney=Speed said:Ok, back to topic.1.1 Stewart - 33.71.2 Mendenhall - 32.31.3 Hart - 31.31.4 Choice - 30.81.5 Rice - 30.31.6 Felix - 29.71.7 Slaton - 29.11.8 Charles - 27.91.9 McFadden - 27.81.10 Johnson - 27.5 Thats how the rook draft would go based on BMI.So McFadden would be the 9th best RB. Hart 3rd.OK, so I guess I don't have to trade up to get McFadden.King of the Jungle said:This was turning into a good topic.Maroney=Speed said:So do you use BMI?wdcrob said:You've got your very own topic that the mods have left open just for you to be a tool in. How about limiting that activity to just one place.TIAMaroney=Speed said:Get the point.All because McFadden is too tall, and has skinny legs.Ok, I get it. How much would McFadden have to gain to get a better BMI?
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