Does anyone know White's contract status going forward? If he wasn't there next year, Michel would be a fantasy monster.
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RB Sony Michel (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
jtp1982
Footballguy
Wait until next weekend, then you’ll be more worried about Burkhead than White as a Michel owner.
White just has inflated production this year due to literally everyone else at RB on the roster week 1 getting injured. RBBC in NE has been the norm long before White or Michel got there and if White were gone next year they’d fill the role like they always have.
The real fantasy upside limitation on Michel this season has been the chronic knee issues. I think he can be an RB1 in that backfield even with the RBBC setup, he’s their 1A for sure, but he’s gotta be on the field for that to happen.
Workhorse
Footballguy
The Pats system is different in that RBs are expected to run option routes based on coverage. Michel doesn't have that particular ability just yet. This isn't a question of "run a wheel/flat/go/etc... route. It's learning that James White/Shane Vereen/Kevin Faulk role. He's not there yet.
I will grant you that, you made it sound like he didn't have the route running/catching ability. He does have that but yes, the Patriots' system is complex. It is likely Michel hasn't grasped the nuances yet and maybe doesn't have the ability to make those determinations on option routes. Again though, I don't think it matters when White is elite in that role and there is little reason to give it to Michel at this stage in the season barring an injury.
irish eyes
Footballguy
Burkhead won't do squat when he comes back. He wasn't doing anything before he got hurt. It won't be but a few plays before he is nursing some other ailment and he'll be irrelevant again.jtp1982 said:
I think Burkhead's return is to take over Patterson's gadget role plus he will help on special teams. Patterson showed some promise but he's still developing. Patriots have been riding Michel (when healthy) and White all year. But their history always have 3 active RBs on game days. Cold weather is coming. This is the time of the year when they establish the run game. Let me break this down and it's my opinion cause you never know with evil Bill:
Michel - lead ball carrier with a couple of passes and goal line back
White - lead pass catcher with a few carries and red zone back
Burkhead - hybrid ball carrier and pass catcher to give Michel and White a breather some redzone/goal line looks plus special teams
Patterson - gadget plays and go route supporting field stretch plays
Michel - lead ball carrier with a couple of passes and goal line back
White - lead pass catcher with a few carries and red zone back
Burkhead - hybrid ball carrier and pass catcher to give Michel and White a breather some redzone/goal line looks plus special teams
Patterson - gadget plays and go route supporting field stretch plays
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
While ultimately this may end up as the RB framework for NE, I think they will probably start shifting some of the workload from Michel and White to Burkhead to keep those guys fresh for the playoffs. Put another way, I think if they had a choice they wouldn't be giving Michel the ball 20-25 times a game in December if they could avoid it. I hate to say it, but if the offense gets healthier and they can get back to scoring 30-40 ppg, they may give Patterson some late game carries as he would not be considered a primary offensive weapon and they would rather he got hurt than the other guys.
So down the stretch, maybe 15 touches for Michel, 8 for Burkhead, 6 for White, and a few for Patterson in games that are out of reach. By comparison, RB's had 35 rushing attempts and 9 receiving targets against the Jets. I think NE would love to have a 50/50 run-pass ratio to take some of the strain and burden off of Brady.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Sort of yes and sort of no. NE has had key guys out and scenarios that have somewhat inflated Michel's usage. Edelman was suspended and later banged up. Gronk banged up and out a lot. Gordon learning the offense. Burkhead on IR. All that has factored into what NE did with Michel. Still hard to fully grasp what his role will be week to week (in addition to game plan specific usage).
ahartig
Footballguy
I dunno, I guess there are two trains of thought here. Belicheck went out of his way to draft this kid in the first round and he has delivered in spades when healthy. If he was still a piece of the RB carousel, I would think that they would have kept Barner and Patterson more involved during the last 7 - 8 weeks. I really think the Pats now have a full time first and second down banger. Add that to the fact Michele caught two balls last week, which I think is huge. Every game Michel has seen 18+ carries, they have won. They're 3 losses were when Michel saw 14 or fewer carries.... I still think Michele will get 20+ carries a game and more targets, allowing the pats to keep Ds on their toes.
But, I own Michele in both my leagues, so I am probably biased, and I rostered Burkhead on both a few weeks ago, just in case because after all, it is the Pats
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
After 11 games the Vikings defense is giving up 3.7 yards per carry (3rd best in the league)
irish eyes
Footballguy
Michel no longer startable. He gets 1 carry & comes out. Wash, rinse, repeat. I @@@@@@@ hate belichek. Knew I should have never put this guy on my roster. YAY burkhead the new 3 down back.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
jtp1982
Footballguy
Burkhead less of a concern for Michel/White owners than I feared, obvious third option and the two main guys both played amazing. Just that level of organization means this is still less like a Patriots cluster**** of a backfield than most years..
I’d relax if I owned Michel. That’s an elite D when it comes to rushing yards allowed. I own White and Burkhead and Michel is still the back to own here. Belichick saw something in the short passing game he wanted to attack in Minnesota’s D so they did. Obviously Whites the dink and dunk passing game back so he had the better game.
Miami is going to get the full Michel treatment next weekend. For week 15 at Pittsburgh I could see it resemble today’s scheme more though but that’s a total guess.
I’d relax if I owned Michel. That’s an elite D when it comes to rushing yards allowed. I own White and Burkhead and Michel is still the back to own here. Belichick saw something in the short passing game he wanted to attack in Minnesota’s D so they did. Obviously Whites the dink and dunk passing game back so he had the better game.
Miami is going to get the full Michel treatment next weekend. For week 15 at Pittsburgh I could see it resemble today’s scheme more though but that’s a total guess.
Not really an endorsement to relax. So some weeks he may be useable but others he won’t be.
jtp1982
Footballguy
I guess, he’s not the only RB that may have a down game against a good run D or just due to randomness though.
I’ve gotten about 10 less points from Kamara the past two weeks than the Michel owner in my league has. Kamara’s fine, Michel’s fine; just a mix of good defenses and the randomness that predicting the future cannot account for.
Think Pats RBs will also have an additional level of randomness. Doesn’t make me feel at all relaxed going into playoffs.
True, though Minnesota's run D is legit. He gets a much easier match-up @ Miami next week, then closes with two tougher run Ds (Pitt/Buff).
I have Saquon and Lindsay in a league with no RB flex, so I probably won't start him ROS. But I'm not all that worried ... yet.
god bless rotoblurb writers.... the entire blurb makes a case for not panicking on michel... 17 carries in a positive game script... had two TD's vultured by a FB... burkhead had limited involvement.... but hell be "risky" next week against Miami.... a game that will have nearly an identical game script with the chance to get two rushing TD's that were unexpectedly vultured. sheeshFaust said:
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Saw a really good team yesterday utilize a really good running game.
KC should be worried.
KC should be worried.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I had Michel on my playoff subscriber team, but it seems like a lot of people don't know how to play the game, so I was out in the first round.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Sort of. You can project him to 16 games, but he doesn't strike me as a guy that will regularly play 16 games. As long as White is there, I wouldn't expect him to play a ton on passing downs (or get a ton of receptions).
For RBs that played in at least 12 games this year, he ranked 20th in fantasy ppg (0 ppr). He ranked lower than that in PPR leagues (probably in the 30's) but I don't feel like sorting out where he finished.
Unfortunately, in many league, I think someone will draft him like a low end RB1 next year, which IMO leaves him very limited upside and I doubt he would earn his draft spot. Several guys that may have ranked lower than him got hurt or had other issues (Hunt for one). He will probably do better than this year if he stays healthy, but it's hard to tell who will be on the field for NE next year on offense. A lot could change (or things could stay the same). Hard to tell right now.
Sounds ok until you start looking at fact if you extrapolate his production in passing game over a whole season it paled to James White's last game. 9 catches/62 yards/0 TD's.
I think he's a RB3 type, low end RB2 at best, and unless he picks up the receiving totals is going to be a highly unpredictable and untrustworthy player to put in my lineups.
I own him in two dynasty leagues. I was mainly happy seeing him do so well yesterday so I can now try and move him.
Workhorse
Footballguy
In my scoring system (0.5 PPR), he was RB #24 this season. As a rookie who missed some time with injury. IMO, his floor is somewhere above that for next season.
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He was a low-end RB2 this past season. And that's with missing games due to injury. If Belichick decides to not be cute by trying to give stats to guys like Devlin, Michel easily has RB1 potential.
That's not a blanket statement. In PPR leagues he was RB35 if you exclude week 17 and RB34 if you just take his average PPG which covers the missed games.
I don't play in non-PPR but looking at data provided by this site I see he was RB25 in no PPR last year. Which like is almost exactly as I said when I labeled him a RB3 or low end RB2, at least for 12 team leagues.
And that's not even getting into fact he's a major injury risk who entered the league with longterm knee concerns and then proceeded to have a knee surgery and miss some additional games with a knee injury.
And BB does not try and get cute or give stats to anyone, he just tries to win. I recall some of those Devlin TD's this year that Michel got cracks from the goal line a few of those times but failed to convert. Develin had 8 carries and 7 of those went for a TD or first down.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
If you extrapolate his playoff stats to a 16 game season we're talking 2,064 yards, 48 TDs, 16 receptions and 144 receiving yards.Workhorse said:
I believe that would make him the #1 fantasy RB.
Gandalf
Footballguy
This was my thought too. I don’t care if he had 30 carries. The best players should stay on the field in those situation. Unless he was hurt.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If Michel is in the game, it is almost always for him to run the ball. Yesterday, he only played 34 snaps. He had 29 carries. He hasn't been used all that much in the passing game, so defenses know what to expect when he is in the game. White played 33 snaps and Burkhead played 30. At least when they are in the game, it is harder to sniff out if a play is a run or a pass. Given that NE had 97 offensive plays, it seems like they rotated who was on the field pretty evenly.
Hard to criticize Belichick after the success he's had (and maybe it's on the OC) but Michel is a great receiver out of the backfield. That was his strength at Georgia. I find it strange that he only passes to White and only runs with Michel.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Michel had 64 receptions in 47 games in college and only 9 as a senior. Not sure I would say that would fall under the banner of heavy use / great receiver. He's had 8 receptions in 15 games with New England and just doesn't look right when they try to get him the ball out of the backfield. That may have more to do with James White being a receiving demi god catching the ball and making big plays than an indictment of Michel's receiving abilities. But for now the Pats haven't made a huge effort to get him receptions.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Hard to tell during the game but i suspect the chiefs changed personnel based on the rb, which is why they switched to burkhead who doesn't run or catch as well as either of them but is a pretty good all around guy.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Does look good but he has 2 sizeable red flags: history of knee problems and he's not pass catching RB. I think he could become that guy but he likely a long long way from being as good at it as James White.
zamboni
Footballguy
Hopefully both he and the team will make a concerted effort to work on his passing game chops for year 2. That can really make him a dynamic dual threat without tipping off the defense.
