Ilov80s
Footballguy
He will improve but will he come anywhere close to White? White and Brady seem to have a total mind meld.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Sony Michel (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Gandalf
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Can't ever expect Michel to be like White in the passing game, but few RBs ever have been (maybe Kevin Faulk before him and a few non-Pats like Marshall Faulk, LT and Forte). But Michel doesn't have to be that good, just credible enough to make the defense think.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good point. I think he should become a good enough receiver to add the receiving threat. However for fantasy, I am still worried White is the one getting the bulk of the receptions and being on the field when the Pats need to throw a lot. Sony's TD upside is huge though.
zamboni
Footballguy
Also agree. White is only going to be 27 next month, so it's not like he's going anywhere.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not by me, at least not in PPR. I have him in dynasty and he's a quintessential sell to me. He had big games in the playoffs on the back of huge carry totals. 74 carries in 3 games which is a 400 carry pace over a full season which is not going to happen for him next season especially with those brittle knees.
Meanwhile they tried again to use him in the passing game early in this one and he again looked terrible at it. He now has 14 catches in the last 24 months going back to college and probably half that many drops as well.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I love me Sony, but NE simply wont use him in the PPR back role, as long as white is on the team, even if he walks, they will find another White/Lewis.
Absolute beast in standard scoring though.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not in any leagues that reward any PPR. He's about RB 10 for me in full PPR, and even in .5 he's not moving up much.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't play PPR, so he's an RB2 for me. He was getting almost all NE's goal line carries this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Gurley, Kamara, Zeke, Saquon, CMc, Gordon, Hopkins, Adams, Thomas are almost surely going in most 1st rounds. So that means Sony needs to go ahead of Julio, Brown, Bell, Mixon, Chubb, Tyreek, Conner, DJ, Juju, Beckham, Thielen, etc. I am just not sure I seeing him jumping all of those guys.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I don't think he's a 2019 first round FF pick. Hard to argue with his massive TD upside though.
Back in 2004 Corey Dillon put up 345/1635/12 with 15/103/1 receiving for the Patriots.
This year, if you toss out the five games that Michel was a bit player or got hurt (weeks 1-3 early season rookie + injury, weeks 7-10 injured) he put up 245/1152/12 in 12 games. That is a 326/1536/16 pace over a full season. I'm not gonna project that going into next year for him, but its definitely within his range of outcomes.
White is phenomenal in his role as pass catching back. So I don't think 50 receptions is in the cards for Michel. However, Michel is a respectable pass catcher, even lining up in the slot in college at times. Just for the sake of keeping teams honest, you can see him getting 25-30 receptions next year.
Back in 2004 Corey Dillon put up 345/1635/12 with 15/103/1 receiving for the Patriots.
This year, if you toss out the five games that Michel was a bit player or got hurt (weeks 1-3 early season rookie + injury, weeks 7-10 injured) he put up 245/1152/12 in 12 games. That is a 326/1536/16 pace over a full season. I'm not gonna project that going into next year for him, but its definitely within his range of outcomes.
White is phenomenal in his role as pass catching back. So I don't think 50 receptions is in the cards for Michel. However, Michel is a respectable pass catcher, even lining up in the slot in college at times. Just for the sake of keeping teams honest, you can see him getting 25-30 receptions next year.
He's not. I care more about actual drafts then mocks and based on actual FFPC best ball/DE drafts his ADP is 28. Out of 23 drafts listed his high is 24. It's a TE premium league and 3 TE's are always getting picked him over him, not sure what impact non TE league would have but at best we'd move him up 3 spots.
This is about what I'd expect and continue to expect. More of a mid third round type, and that's still to high for me.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Pats have Burkhead for $3MM Cap (2 dead) for 2019 so he’s not going anywhere.
It’s no secret that the Pats are trending back to smash mouth football. I Love Michel but absent injury I see BB spreading the load to keep everyone healthy/fresh for the playoffs. Matchups will determine big games (but will be tough to predict).,
IMO we are looking at 1100ish yards,. The goal line work seems to be his, though.
People projecting 4.6+YPC are nuts... you need Hunt style gamebreaking speed to sustain that and Sony just isn’t that kind of back. His long is 34yds on the year. 4.45 is about as high as I could see reasonably projecting him, (assuming the line stays intact/healthy). Especially with him getting ~20+ goal line carries.
With a healthy burkhead I think we are looking at a range of 220-260 carries, with a sweet spot of 240ish. I don’t think Bill wants to burn up those knees just yet. .
TDs... tough call but 10-18 is his range IMO, with a likely 14-16 landing.
REC... 14 targets with 7 catches in 16 games. Lot of checkdowns and dump offs in there. I don’t see that growing much. Maybe ~20 targets 10-12 catches if we are lucky?
I think we are looking at a moderately up/down ~1150yd season with 14-16 TD, and trivial involvement in the passing game. 200ish points standard, tack on another 15-20 in PPR. Good for RB16-17 or so... solid RB2. Someone will overpay in most leagues.
It’s no secret that the Pats are trending back to smash mouth football. I Love Michel but absent injury I see BB spreading the load to keep everyone healthy/fresh for the playoffs. Matchups will determine big games (but will be tough to predict).,
IMO we are looking at 1100ish yards,. The goal line work seems to be his, though.
People projecting 4.6+YPC are nuts... you need Hunt style gamebreaking speed to sustain that and Sony just isn’t that kind of back. His long is 34yds on the year. 4.45 is about as high as I could see reasonably projecting him, (assuming the line stays intact/healthy). Especially with him getting ~20+ goal line carries.
With a healthy burkhead I think we are looking at a range of 220-260 carries, with a sweet spot of 240ish. I don’t think Bill wants to burn up those knees just yet. .
TDs... tough call but 10-18 is his range IMO, with a likely 14-16 landing.
REC... 14 targets with 7 catches in 16 games. Lot of checkdowns and dump offs in there. I don’t see that growing much. Maybe ~20 targets 10-12 catches if we are lucky?
I think we are looking at a moderately up/down ~1150yd season with 14-16 TD, and trivial involvement in the passing game. 200ish points standard, tack on another 15-20 in PPR. Good for RB16-17 or so... solid RB2. Someone will overpay in most leagues.
Last edited by a moderator:
Gandalf
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Kind of feels like DeAngelo Williams, circa 2008.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Moving this to the Michel thread...
I know I will take a lot of grief for this... but here's what I know and what I speculate: Sony Michel ruptured his ACL in his left knee in 2011. ACL tears are linked to a significant increase in OA later in life, and that chance is increased at least 6x if there is any damage at all to the surrounding cartilage and/or meniscus. I have no idea if his ACL rupture involved these structures, but considering his "bone on bone" condition in his knee, I have to assume yes.
In 2017 he had a grade 1 ligamentous strain. Not a huge deal by itself, but factor in that knee is already slightly less stable after the acl reconstruction (the surgeon can never get it 100% back to normal; it's about the stability after a grade 1 tear), it increases the chances for further micro damage to the cartilage and further progression toward OA.
2018 he had a mysterious left knee injury that resulted in draining of the knee and then further surgery to likely clean up the meniscus and other loose cartilage. Again, another surgery that creates trauma at the cartilage level, progressing OA.
He is reported to have a "bone on bone" issue in his left knee, which is not surprising given his significant injury history to this area. IMO his knee may be in worse shape than Gurley, but who knows- ita pure speculation, however I say that because to my knowledge Gurley doesnt have the injury history Michel has. We saw how quickly Ajayi's knee went in the dump, and I could probably dig into his thread and find at least a few posts where I said his knee issues raised red flags for me. I took grief in that thread too.I liked him early in his career and soured once I realized his knee was limiting him.
Michels knee is only going to progress. That's a certainty. I suspect they drafted Harris to take some volume off Michel, probably to help prolong his knee. Similarly to what Miami and Philly tried with Ajayi and what LAR is likely doing with Gurley. I'm not saying Michels knee gives out on him this year, but I do think he is at or approaching a sell high status and may not have a long career in the NFL.
ETA: Gurley did tear his left acl in 2014
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
sell high has come and gone
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I sold a few months back (before the draft) because I had concerns about his knee and his lack of catching passes. He was part of a package that got me OBJ. No regrets.
I couldn’t believe it when the Michel owner passed up Damien Harris at 17 in our draft. I ended up getting him all the way at 22 after thinking about trading up to get him at 15. I’m with Dr. D and some others in here that the knee is a concern. Needless to say I’ll be following this thread closely.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think when we look back at this draft in 3 years we will wonder how in the world Harris slipped to mid 2nd round. IMO he has potential to be a top 3 rb out of this class. I think I may have completely missed on him and I have no problems admitting that (FWIW I had an opportunity at 17, but I couldnt pass up Deebo there)
Last edited by a moderator:
Add 2019 knee scope to this list according to that Jeff Howe fella on Twitter
edit- and that list doesn’t have the left knee injury he had last year against the Bears. Man that’s a lot...
Last edited by a moderator:
Tanner9919
Footballguy
reports are it was minor , heck , Marshall Faulk used to have his knee fixed every week , or so it seemed.
1. no WRs in NE worth mentioning outside of fragile Edelman
2. NO TE in NE worth mentioning.period.
3. 42 year old Tom Brady not getting any younger.
4. good O-line.
conclusion:
BB has J. McDaniels call a TON of run plays, they pound the rock like mad, and Michel goes nuts in 2019. probably a top 6-10 finish for him. writing is on the wall IMO
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Faulk was found to have floating bodies in his knee, which he had removed. This still didnt fix the problem so he had microfracture. After that he enjoyed several good seasons and then eventually the arthritis set in.
The difference in knee situations between Faulk and Michel is that Faulk had good cartilage left and needed microfracture to "fill the holes" so to speak, which eventually resulted in arthrithis/"bone on bone." Michel has bone on bone already. IMO it's a mistake for you to shrug off his knee problems as no big deal.
But you absolutely got one thing right in your post, the writing is on the wall.
Last edited by a moderator:
zamboni
Footballguy
You're potentially overlooking the competition that Damien Harris may bring to the table as a perhaps even more well-rounded (in the passing game) RB than Michel.
To be fair, Michel was strong in the passing game in college, and perhaps his lengthy absence last year in pre-season hurt his development in that aspect of this game. But if Sony doesn't pick up his passing game chops, he could lose a lot of work to Harris if not the starting gig outright. As things stand now, when Sony is in the game, defenses will look for the run and when White is in there, for the pass. Harris could bring a lot more diversity and less obvious for defenses to read.
Obviously it's early and we haven't seen Harris yet, but there are some risk factors here for Michel beyond injury.
Last edited by a moderator:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, Michel wasn’t really a factor in the passing game in college. He had 9 receptions in 14 games and averaged 1.3 receptions per game over his 4 year college career. He did ok when he caught the ball in college (9.7 YPR), but he really was mostly an after thought.
He didn’t look great as a receiver last year No one will confuse him with James White. Or even with Rex Burkhead.
NFL MVP Odds: Only 3 players ahead of Carson Wentz
Interesting that only 3 running backs were given better odds than Michel to become league MVP, and those running backs were Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkely.
Running backs with the same odds as Michel?
Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, and Todd Gurley.
Interesting that only 3 running backs were given better odds than Michel to become league MVP, and those running backs were Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkely.
Running backs with the same odds as Michel?
Melvin Gordon, Nick Chubb, and Todd Gurley.
