RB strategy (1 Viewer)

[There it is]

I was under the impression that you were going Back to back, 6 and 7 rnds. Thats fine and how I did it before, but if you are allowing pick in between (that you can not control or know how they will go) then it's just a risky ffb strategy that you can not predict the outcome(relying on luck). Back to back and you rock them draft 1 and plan on getting the other,just another ffb move.

Except, by TC, either Dayne or Bell will be a 3rd or 4th round RB and either Adai or Rhodes will be a 4th or 5th round RB - if not higher.

!st what is TC?2nd I thought he meant back to back in whatever round necessary by draft time.

 

[Marc Levin]

I was under the impression that you were going Back to back, 6 and 7 rnds. Thats fine and how I did it before, but if you are allowing pick in between (that you can not control or know how they will go) then it's just a risky ffb strategy that you can not predict the outcome(relying on luck). Back to back and you rock them   draft 1 and plan on getting the other,just another ffb move.

Except, by TC, either Dayne or Bell will be a 3rd or 4th round RB and either Adai or Rhodes will be a 4th or 5th round RB - if not higher.

!st what is TC?2nd I thought he meant back to back in whatever round necessary by draft time.

training camp.he may have meant back to back, but I think the strategy is worth discussing regardless of back to back selection.

If I can get Bell in the 3rd and Dayne in the 7th (or vice versa - either is a distinct possibility by the end of this month), why would I take them back to back?

 

[Routilla]

Given the drop-off after the big 3, I think once Bell is picked it will not be long before one of the non big 3 owners goes into slight panic mode and grabs Dayne. I also expect the non big 3 owners to reach for RBs in early rounds(even for Bell) knowing they are behind the 8 ball. As an LJ owner, I am looking forward to grabbing some better value in the WR department as a result.

 

[Marc Levin]

Given the drop-off after the big 3, I think once Bell is picked it will not be long before one of the non big 3 owners goes into slight panic mode and grabs Dayne.  I also expect the non big 3 owners to reach for RBs in early rounds(even for Bell) knowing they are behind the 8 ball. 

Only if you are drafting in the next few weeks.if you draft at ANY point after TC, one of Dayne or Bell will be the nominal "starter" and noone is jumping on the other particularly early.Panic mode folks will be looking at Deuce, Gore, Chris Brown types over the "other" Demver RB - and the "other" denver RB will last into the 6th or later in non-Denver based drafts.

 

[There it is]

I was under the impression that you were going Back to back, 6 and 7 rnds. Thats fine and how I did it before, but if you are allowing pick in between (that you can not control or know how they will go) then it's just a risky ffb strategy that you can not predict the outcome(relying on luck). Back to back and you rock them draft 1 and plan on getting the other,just another ffb move.

Except, by TC, either Dayne or Bell will be a 3rd or 4th round RB and either Adai or Rhodes will be a 4th or 5th round RB - if not higher.

!st what is TC?2nd I thought he meant back to back in whatever round necessary by draft time.

training camp.he may have meant back to back, but I think the strategy is worth discussing regardless of back to back selection.

If I can get Bell in the 3rd and Dayne in the 7th (or vice versa - either is a distinct possibility by the end of this month), why would I take them back to back?

No problem. Exactly what I meant. By draft time you know where you can pull this off. I think everybody does this. Select one and try to grt the other later on. No problem, but you have to realize that others will take your 2nd before you. I actually teach a stratagy of "follow the Leader", meaning if you are not sure which one you want from a team (usually w/a solid O line) then when someone drafts the first one you draft the other. Right away to stop them from getting both and trade bait or if your right, then you win. Of course this method guarantees you never over spend for an unknown quanity.

The back to back really rocks them,puts some on tilt.

 

[Routilla]

I was under the impression that you were going Back to back, 6 and 7 rnds. Thats fine and how I did it before, but if you are allowing pick in between (that you can not control or know how they will go) then it's just a risky ffb strategy that you can not predict the outcome(relying on luck). Back to back and you rock them   draft 1 and plan on getting the other,just another ffb move.

Except, by TC, either Dayne or Bell will be a 3rd or 4th round RB and either Adai or Rhodes will be a 4th or 5th round RB - if not higher.

!st what is TC?2nd I thought he meant back to back in whatever round necessary by draft time.

training camp.he may have meant back to back, but I think the strategy is worth discussing regardless of back to back selection.

If I can get Bell in the 3rd and Dayne in the 7th (or vice versa - either is a distinct possibility by the end of this month), why would I take them back to back?

No problem. Exactly what I meant. By draft time you know where you can pull this off. I think everybody does this. Select one and try to grt the other later on. No problem, but you have to realize that others will take your 2nd before you. I actually teach a stratagy of "follow the Leader", meaning if you are not sure which one you want from a team (usually w/a solid O line) then when someone drafts the first one you draft the other. Right away to stop them from getting both and trade bait or if your right, then you win. Of course this method guarantees you never over spend for an unknown quanity.

The back to back really rocks them,puts some on tilt.

I did that several years ago to the guy that drafted Hearst. I picked Barlow with the very next pick and I'm pretty sure he was thinking of grabbing them both. Atleast that's what I got from his non verbal behavior afterwards.

 

[Chaos Commish]

the "other" denver RB will last into the 6th or later in non-Denver based drafts.

Last year the weekend of the opener, both were gone by the end of the 5th. In my league Anderson went 4.11 and Bell 5.01 (a block of sorts). They'll go earlier this year if Dayne stays #1. Bell will skyrocket if he takes the job, then Dayne would free fall.

 

[Marc Levin]

but you have to realize that others will take your 2nd before you.

Yup - it's a risk.And you have to committ to drafting the handcuff earlier than conventional wisdom - you still might get scooped out of your handcuff, but you need to reach for the handcuff if you want both players.

 

[Marc Levin]

They'll go earlier this year if Dayne stays #1. Bell will skyrocket if he takes the job, then Dayne would free fall.

I think they'll go around the same place if dayne is the #1.I think you are dead-on if Bell wins the job. I think Bell = 2.11 to 3.08 as the Denver starter.

 

[There it is]

but you have to realize that others will take your 2nd before you.

Yup - it's a risk.And you have to committ to drafting the handcuff earlier than conventional wisdom - you still might get scooped out of your handcuff, but you need to reach for the handcuff if you want both players.

Then you agree, or see, my confusion that he thought this is new.We always grab the #2 usually at a bargain, that thwart this stratege.

Back to back rocks them IMHO. I know I did it and saw the results.

God, I love FFB.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The fact that there are so many RB combos out there like this makes this a very intriguing year.

The 4/5 and 6/7 combo picks are about where you'll see this strategy employed this season.

Calling it a "handcuff" move is inappropriate. That's picking a backup in case your stud gets hurt.

I'm going to try and name this the "Running Back Relay" strategy.

Here you are hoping that one back will become the feature back - sort of like Henry then McGahee in Buffalo - where the baton gets passed on to the new ballcarrier in town.

RBBCs are the downfall of this strategy. Both backs play most of or all of the season, but share playing time.

Selection of a "RB Relay" is completely biased towards a team that not only loves to run, but also likes a feature back.

Carolina fits that bill for me to a tee. (However I'm not convinced Foster even lasts very long as a starter, but that's another topic).

New England works, as does Green Bay. Tennessee seems to look like this as well.

I think Chicago could also work there.

Denver absolutely does not - however past history has Shanahan making two backs very productive with play calling. 15-20 touches for each back in that offense still gets you a Top 25 RB.

Other situations I am wary of are teams with possible "relay" situations, but new coaching staffs. For example - San Francisco. Who knows what model they will pick - committee? Feature back?

Same for New Orleans. I think Reggie Bush will get touches, as will Deuce. I think the Denver model would be more appropriate - two potential Top 25 RBs - but who knows right now.

Good topic.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Missed one.

Jacksonville - Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew.

FTaylor - ADP is 59-63.

MDrew's ADP is 145-149.

So you could get FTaylor in the 4th/5th then get his rookie backup incumbent in Round 13 pretty stealthily.

 

[Marc Levin]

Missed one.

Jacksonville - Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew.

FTaylor - ADP is 59-63.

MDrew's ADP is 145-149.

So you could get FTaylor in the 4th/5th then get his rookie backup incumbent in Round 13 pretty stealthily.

I'm gonna disagree - if Fred T gets hurt, I believe Jax will use Greg Jones in the feature back role.I also believe it could EASILY be Toefield over Drew on the depth chart and Drew being committed to ST for his first year with the team.

Calling it a "handcuff" move is inappropriate. That's picking a backup in case your stud gets hurt.

I'm going to try and name this the "Running Back Relay" strategy.

Here you are hoping that one back will become the feature back - sort of like Henry then McGahee in Buffalo - where the baton gets passed on to the new ballcarrier in town.

In line with this "relay" strategy, you don't REALLY care if one or the other outright wins the feature back - only that one or the other is USED as the feature back on a weekly basis and the other is a change of pace/backup rather than a member of an RBBC.IOW, Dayne can start weeks 1-3, and then Bell can start weeks 4-9 and then Dayne can start weeks 10-16 and the strategy is perfectly safe. Whichever is Shannie's starter is probably a good fantasy option.

 

[Chaos Commish]

We might call it the "hoping for injury feature RB strategy". Soon as one goes down you have your man. I'm being silly, but it is a real feature of the thinking, and a high percentages of these combos will have injuries clearing the fog, even if it's the nagging kind.

 

[There it is]

Missed one.

Jacksonville - Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew.

FTaylor - ADP is 59-63.

MDrew's ADP is 145-149.

So you could get FTaylor in the 4th/5th then get his rookie backup incumbent in Round 13 pretty stealthily.

Ah memories. This is the exact team i First rocked (their words) the league w/in 1998 . When I selected Taylor and Steward, back to back.

I look for strong O line, aesy SOS and an unsettled backfield. I only chance it(w/confidence on the turn)

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think too much is being made of the difficulty of pulling this off. Dozens of mocks behind me and only the two that started the thread seem particularly dicey - Den and Indy.

GB is easy - Gado falls

SF is easy - Barlow falls

Dal is easy - Barber falls

Min is easy - no love for Memo

Car is easy - but don't dilly dally with DeAngelo

Jax w/Jones is easy, easier if Drew is the target

NE can be tougher, but Maroney can be had fairly easily.

Tenn and NO require a back to back, but at least not too early with Tenn.

 

[Marc Levin]

We might call it the "hoping for injury feature RB strategy". Soon as one goes down you have your man. I'm being silly, but it is a real feature of the thinking, and a high percentages of these combos will have injuries clearing the fog, even if it's the nagging kind.

disagree - I think one back emerges in all three of Indie, Den, and probably Tenn and that it will be the one back that you want to have with the other being there in case of injury.

 

[Chaos Commish]

We might call it the "hoping for injury feature RB strategy". Soon as one goes down you have your man. I'm being silly, but it is a real feature of the thinking, and a high percentages of these combos will have injuries clearing the fog, even if it's the nagging kind.

disagree - I think one back emerges in all three of Indie, Den, and probably Tenn and that it will be the one back that you want to have with the other being there in case of injury.

Not sure what you disagree with because I agree with your post. I think you may be taking my silly name for the strategy seriously? I was kidding, but injury insurance certainly is, as we both agree, a feature of this thinking. I don't like the "Relay" name either. Simply, this is Team RB strategy. Pasquino is right-- this isn't a traditional handcuff. But it isn't a relay in each case either. It is monopolizing (hopefully) a potentially good running attack from a team with a murky picture. Team RB.I think it was Maurile who recently posted some startling figures for fantasy playoff starting RBs who were not week one starters. Over 50% some years. The majority percentage of those RB changes are due to injury. RBs go down like flies. This theory says taking Brown and White or Gore and Barlow is better than taking Brown and Barlow, or Gore and White. Even if you prefer White to Barlow, taking both from the 9ers is safer/smarter/stronger, because having one from each team presents the potential to get it wrong both times. Taking both from the same team guarantees getting it right short of full fledged RBBC, and really sets you up nicely in the somewhat likely event of injury. (Marc, this isn't directed at you, just me rambling, I'm sure you understand all of this.)

Fwiw, I came by here after yet another mock. I watched the ten situations discussed in this thread. Only Bush McAlister and Addai Rhodes were problematic. They went five and seven picks apart. Gore and Barlow and Foster and Williams were successfully handcuffed. The others could have been, even Bell/Dayne.

 

[Reaper]

I'm looking at the Foster/Williams pairing. I think Foster will be very productive as long  he can stay healthy. I think Foster will be the primary RB as long as he is healthy. But DeAngelo Williams could be very good if he gets a shot. Foster, in a 10 team is going mid-fifth. Williams is going mid-ninth. Carolina's running game was very solid last year. They have a solid line and I think the addition of Keyshawn helps the running game.

I like this one too. the biggest problem I am having with this strategy is if you go RB WR WR you are not guarunteed one of those pairings on the round 4-5 swing. I like the idea but I just worry about being stuck with only one starting RB. Foster most likely would be there on the 4-5 swing. I'm thinking something more like...Alexander

Owens

Chambers

Foster

Williams

I know this is a little early for Williams but his ADP is 69 according to FBG's which is about 5.8. I Really think if you want to go this strategy you can't wait. What you could do is assume some pairing of RB will be availible at 4/5 and go for it.

Other pairings to consider...

Jones/Benson

Dillon/Maroney

I posted something similar in the Handcuff thread.....

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...dpost&p=5103592

Last year the obvious one was Larry Johnson. But, there was a price to pay - My #1 Handcuff target last year instead was Najeh Davenport - Turns out, he gets injured the same day he gets the starting gig... But, to me Value wise, he was my guy while everyone else chased LJ.... Turns out, the LJ people were rewarded handsomely, that was just a roll of the dice though, If LJ is the one who gets injured on day 1 and Najeh stays healthy - All LUCK, I would have been King of all the land ; ).

As for your examples - You give good insurance policies, as stated above...

What I look for in a handcuff is to lock up a running game on the cheap.... OF COURSE I Also lock up insurance policies... If I have LT on my team I'll have Turner as well but, that's all a product of having a top 3 draft pick or like most of your examples, a shot at a top RB.

Take Chicago for example... Benson/Jones would cost you maybe a 5th and a 6th -To me THAT could be better than lets say Tiki Barber or any other late 1st round RB pick where his backup is unproven... One reason it's better is that it comes with insurance (2 Talented RB's)... But, also now in the late 1st I can lock up the WR I think it the best... How about Carolina - Foster / Williams might cost a 4 and a 7. Somewhere in your draft, that combo is a Better value than grabbing a late 1st round / 2nd round questionable RB.

Handcuffing 2 Cheaper Rb's later affords a RB Theorist to sit back on RB's and lock up some decent talent at WR and maybe QB and/or TE.....

The Top Handcuffs looking at it this way might be:

1) Jones / Benson

2) Foster / Williams

3) Dillon / Maroney

4) Brown / White

5) Rhodes / Addai

6) Taylor / Moore

7) Dayne / Bell

Handcuff or not, once I have my starters I like to lock up the 2nd tier RB's even without Handcuffing them to the potential starter which gives you possble value later in the season as a starter or as trade bait.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Fwiw, I came by here after yet another mock. I watched the ten situations discussed in this thread. Only Bush McAlister and Addai Rhodes were problematic. They went five and seven picks apart. Gore and Barlow and Foster and Williams were successfully handcuffed. The others could have been, even Bell/Dayne.

What league size is this? I seriously think, in my 10 owner league, this is doable. Add in the fact that QBs are awarded 6 pts per td pass, and it's very possible since QB's will go earlier than usual.

I'll do a few mocks at xpertsports in the next couple of days to see if it's possible.

 

[There it is]

I'm looking at the Foster/Williams pairing. I think Foster will be very productive as long he can stay healthy. I think Foster will be the primary RB as long as he is healthy. But DeAngelo Williams could be very good if he gets a shot. Foster, in a 10 team is going mid-fifth. Williams is going mid-ninth. Carolina's running game was very solid last year. They have a solid line and I think the addition of Keyshawn helps the running game.

I like this one too. the biggest problem I am having with this strategy is if you go RB WR WR you are not guarunteed one of those pairings on the round 4-5 swing. I like the idea but I just worry about being stuck with only one starting RB. Foster most likely would be there on the 4-5 swing. I'm thinking something more like...Alexander

Owens

Chambers

Foster

Williams

I know this is a little early for Williams but his ADP is 69 according to FBG's which is about 5.8. I Really think if you want to go this strategy you can't wait. What you could do is assume some pairing of RB will be availible at 4/5 and go for it.

Other pairings to consider...

Jones/Benson

Dillon/Maroney

I posted something similar in the Handcuff thread.....

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...dpost&p=5103592

Last year the obvious one was Larry Johnson. But, there was a price to pay - My #1 Handcuff target last year instead was Najeh Davenport - Turns out, he gets injured the same day he gets the starting gig... But, to me Value wise, he was my guy while everyone else chased LJ.... Turns out, the LJ people were rewarded handsomely, that was just a roll of the dice though, If LJ is the one who gets injured on day 1 and Najeh stays healthy - All LUCK, I would have been King of all the land ; ).

As for your examples - You give good insurance policies, as stated above...

What I look for in a handcuff is to lock up a running game on the cheap.... OF COURSE I Also lock up insurance policies... If I have LT on my team I'll have Turner as well but, that's all a product of having a top 3 draft pick or like most of your examples, a shot at a top RB.

Take Chicago for example... Benson/Jones would cost you maybe a 5th and a 6th -To me THAT could be better than lets say Tiki Barber or any other late 1st round RB pick where his backup is unproven... One reason it's better is that it comes with insurance (2 Talented RB's)... But, also now in the late 1st I can lock up the WR I think it the best... How about Carolina - Foster / Williams might cost a 4 and a 7. Somewhere in your draft, that combo is a Better value than grabbing a late 1st round / 2nd round questionable RB.

Handcuffing 2 Cheaper Rb's later affords a RB Theorist to sit back on RB's and lock up some decent talent at WR and maybe QB and/or TE.....

The Top Handcuffs looking at it this way might be:

1) Jones / Benson

2) Foster / Williams

3) Dillon / Maroney

4) Brown / White

5) Rhodes / Addai

6) Taylor / Moore

7) Dayne / Bell

Handcuff or not, once I have my starters I like to lock up the 2nd tier RB's even without Handcuffing them to the potential starter which gives you possble value later in the season as a starter or as trade bait.

That was a great thread. Excellent infohere and there.

 

[shadow2k]

In line with this "relay" strategy, you don't REALLY care if one or the other outright wins the feature back - only that one or the other is USED as the feature back on a weekly basis and the other is a change of pace/backup rather than a member of an RBBC.

IOW, Dayne can start weeks 1-3, and then Bell can start weeks 4-9 and then Dayne can start weeks 10-16 and the strategy is perfectly safe.  Whichever is Shannie's starter is probably a good fantasy option.

Problem with this is that certain coaches, including Shanahan, are going to give you a headache every week trying to figure out which one to play. You assume they're going to come out and name which one will start each week, and follow through with it.The other dangerous part is that these guys have a better chance at getting yanked mid-game.

 

[There it is]

Fwiw, I came by here after yet another mock. I watched the ten situations discussed in this thread. Only Bush McAlister and Addai Rhodes were problematic. They went five and seven picks apart. Gore and Barlow and Foster and Williams were successfully handcuffed. The others could have been, even Bell/Dayne.

What league size is this? I seriously think, in my 10 owner league, this is doable. Add in the fact that QBs are awarded 6 pts per td pass, and it's very possible since QB's will go earlier than usual.

I'll do a few mocks at xpertsports in the next couple of days to see if it's possible.

Great point. My main league awards 6 pts for passing tds, it also awards bonus points for distance of tds.( 1 bonus point per 10 yds of td passing)Needless to say our QB's go real early too. That's what makes these threads so important to me.

EDIT to add. What picks do you have in rnd 6 & 7?

 

[m_sell31]

what if you take say williams/foster 5/6 after passsing on a RB in the second. HYou are now relying on one of them to become the clear cut starter to fill your RB #2 spot. What if the split carries about like Brown/Williams did later in the year last season for Miami? Then you have two good RB#'s but no good RB2? I like the idea but it sounds pretty risky.

 

[einstein2u]

i tried this theory in a 12 man mock..picking 2nd....foster, dillion, bush were all gone. I had SA/Moss/Boldin.....but was stuck with Tjones/Benson.....which is risky.....

 

[Marc Levin]

Fwiw, I came by here after yet another mock. I watched the ten situations discussed in this thread. Only Bush McAlister and Addai Rhodes were problematic. They went five and seven picks apart. Gore and Barlow and Foster and Williams were successfully handcuffed. The others could have been, even Bell/Dayne.

These RB sitches, IMO< will be THE most volatile draft positions all preseason.By Aug. 20 - 28, almost all of them will be apparently resolved or close to resolved and the ability to handcuff them will be closer to the several rounds apart sitch than the one right after the other - or else you will be serioiusly reaching on one or the other to make them draftable one right after the other.

I skipped coffee today, so I am not sure that was really english.

 

[lebowski]

i tried this theory in a 12 man mock..picking 2nd....foster, dillion, bush were all gone. I had SA/Moss/Boldin.....but was stuck with Tjones/Benson.....which is risky.....

that is what i am saying! but if you are willing to live with the risk it is a possible strategy. What you might want to do is rank your pairings in the order you would like them and take whatever is left.

#1 Ind.

#2 Den.

#3 Car.

#4 Chi.

etc.

You still have to prepare yourself for the chance that none of these work out and have a plan B...like F. Taylor, C. Brown etc.

The biggest problem I have (and I'm sure many of you do as well) is that I have a couple owners in my league that LOVE rookies. That makes this strategy even harder this year.

 

[lebowski]

By Aug. 20 - 28, almost all of them will be apparently resolved or close to resolved and the ability to handcuff them will be closer to the several rounds apart sitch than the one right after the other - or else you will be serioiusly reaching on one or the other to make them draftable one right after the other.

I skipped coffee today, so I am not sure that was really english.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Ok, instead of doing 10 mock drafts myself, I went to Antsports.com and viewed 10 mock drafts that were completed (only the serious mock drafts). I was looking to see if certain players would be available in certain rounds....

2nd: Owens or Holt

3rd: Harrison or Boldin, K. Jones

4th: R. Williams, C. Taylor

5th: Dunn, Driver, T. Bell

6h: Bell, Addai

7th: Dayne, Rhodes

This way, I can see if my original idea was even a possibility.

Here's how it came out.

pick

2.08: either Owens or Holt were there 10/10 times

3.03: either Harrison or Boldin were there 10/10 times. K. Jones 8/10

4.08: R. Williams available 6/10 times, C. Taylor only there 2/10

5.03: Dunn available 10/10, Driver 9/10, Bell 9/10

6.08: Bell 0/10 , Addai 9/10

7.03: Dayne 10/10, Rhodes 10/10

Analysis...

Owens or Holt in the 2nd, and Harrison in the 3rd are a lock.

Looks like Bell and Dayne is out of the question for 6th and 7th, but could be had easily at 5th and 7th rounds.

If I want Addai and Rhodes, I can get them in the 6th and 7th.

There's a 60% chance I get R. Williams in the 4th.

So, this looks to be the safest route:

1st SA

2nd Owens/Holt

3rd Harrison

4th R. Williams

5th Dunn

6th Addai

7th Rhodes

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

 

[Marc Levin]

In line with this "relay" strategy, you don't REALLY care if one or the other outright wins the feature back - only that one or the other is USED as the feature back on a weekly basis and the other is a change of pace/backup rather than a member of an RBBC.

IOW, Dayne can start weeks 1-3, and then Bell can start weeks 4-9 and then Dayne can start weeks 10-16 and the strategy is perfectly safe.  Whichever is Shannie's starter is probably a good fantasy option.

Problem with this is that certain coaches, including Shanahan, are going to give you a headache every week trying to figure out which one to play. You assume they're going to come out and name which one will start each week, and follow through with it.The other dangerous part is that these guys have a better chance at getting yanked mid-game.

Both true points - but those are things you have to consider when trying to draft a team's running game for your RB2 rather than drafting a player.That said, I do not recall ANY problems last year determining who was Shannie's starting RB. It was MA at all times until the game when he was injured and it was Bell. When MA was healthy enough to play, he was the starter. Period.

 

[lebowski]

Ok, instead of doing 10 mock drafts myself, I went to Antsports.com and viewed 10 mock drafts that were completed (only the serious mock drafts). I was looking to see if certain players would be available in certain rounds....

2nd: Owens or Holt

3rd: Harrison or Boldin, K. Jones

4th: R. Williams, C. Taylor

5th: Dunn, Driver, T. Bell

6h: Bell, Addai

7th: Dayne, Rhodes

This way, I can see if my original idea was even a possibility.

Here's how it came out.

pick

2.08: either Owens or Holt were there 10/10 times

3.03: either Harrison or Boldin were there 10/10 times. K. Jones 8/10

4.08: R. Williams available 6/10 times, C. Taylor only there 2/10

5.03: Dunn available 10/10, Driver 9/10, Bell 9/10

6.08: Bell 0/10 , Addai 9/10

7.03: Dayne 10/10, Rhodes 10/10

Analysis...

Owens or Holt in the 2nd, and Harrison in the 3rd are a lock.

Looks like Bell and Dayne is out of the question for 6th and 7th, but could be had easily at 5th and 7th rounds.

If I want Addai and Rhodes, I can get them in the 6th and 7th.

There's a 60% chance I get R. Williams in the 4th.

So, this looks to be the safest route:

1st SA

2nd Owens/Holt

3rd Harrison

4th R. Williams

5th Dunn

6th Addai

7th Rhodes

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

Is this 10 or 12 team leagues. I am absolutely shocked Dunn was availible. I also agree with Wimer that unless your draft is this week a lot of this discussion doesn't matter...but it is still worth thinking about.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Fwiw, I came by here after yet another mock. I watched the ten situations discussed in this thread. Only Bush McAlister and Addai Rhodes were problematic. They went five and seven picks apart. Gore and Barlow and Foster and Williams were successfully handcuffed. The others could have been, even Bell/Dayne.

What league size is this? I seriously think, in my 10 owner league, this is doable. Add in the fact that QBs are awarded 6 pts per td pass, and it's very possible since QB's will go earlier than usual.

I'll do a few mocks at xpertsports in the next couple of days to see if it's possible.

It was also a ten teamer. I tried, always try in mock 10s, to consider "if" it were a 12. RBs go faster in 12s, but I still had the feeling I could have targeted any but the two mentioned and pulled it off from most draft positions, moving a round early if drafting on or very near a corner.

 

[Marc Levin]

what if you take say williams/foster 5/6 after passsing on a RB in the second. HYou are now relying on one of them to become the clear cut starter to fill your RB #2 spot. What if the split carries about like Brown/Williams did later in the year last season for Miami? Then you have two good RB#'s but no good RB2? I like the idea but it sounds pretty risky.

it is.you have to be "sold" on the feature back sitch - this strategy def. does NOT work everywhere. Tennessee being one of those question marks. SF being another.

I *believe* Indie and Den will work out to become one starter/one feature back by the third or fourth game of the year - and you would have them both on your squad, so you would have the guy. That makes it worth the risk.

I also *believe* SF and possibly NO will NOT work out that way absent injury - since I do not project injury, I would not invest in both RBs in that running game. Same problem if MORE THAN ONE backup is possible - like in Jax (you have any of GJones, Toefield, Drew or Pearman as possible replacements for Fred T)

side note on the Saints - I'd "buy" Bush in my draft, but not as a RB2, and not along with Deuce. I'd hope Deuce gets hurt - but I think if Deuce is playing, Bush's fantasy worth is best served in PPR and leagues where you reward ST yardage.

 

[Marc Levin]

By Aug. 20 - 28, almost all of them will be apparently resolved or close to resolved and the ability to handcuff them will be closer to the several rounds apart sitch than the one right after the other - or else you will be serioiusly reaching on one or the other to make them draftable one right after the other.

I skipped coffee today, so I am not sure that was really english.

the lack of english or the actual comment?I'm guessing the lack of english.

 

[Marc Levin]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Fwiw, I came by here after yet another mock. I watched the ten situations discussed in this thread. Only Bush McAlister and Addai Rhodes were problematic. They went five and seven picks apart. Gore and Barlow and Foster and Williams were successfully handcuffed. The others could have been, even Bell/Dayne.

These RB sitches, IMO< will be THE most volatile draft positions all preseason.By Aug. 20 - 28, almost all of them will be apparently resolved or close to resolved and the ability to handcuff them will be closer to the several rounds apart sitch than the one right after the other - or else you will be serioiusly reaching on one or the other to make them draftable one right after the other.

I skipped coffee today, so I am not sure that was really english.

Agreed, and I think the separation they will experience works out nicely for those of us with specific targets. I'm not going to pimp Gore/Barlow much more than I have, but I can't see either experiencing a big leap in ADP, while I can see a big jump coming with half of each of the other combos. In most cases the back on the rise is going to interfere with my other plans (wrs). If I went for Team Bronco or Team Colt, then I'm afraid that would be my RB2 not 3. Not that that is necessarily a bad thing, and a stud WR should be on board, but for me this is more an RB3 solution.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Ok, instead of doing 10 mock drafts myself, I went to Antsports.com and viewed 10 mock drafts that were completed (only the serious mock drafts).  I was looking to see if certain players would be available in certain rounds....

2nd:  Owens or Holt

3rd:  Harrison or Boldin, K. Jones

4th:  R. Williams, C. Taylor

5th:  Dunn, Driver, T. Bell

6h:  Bell, Addai

7th:  Dayne, Rhodes

This way, I can see if my original idea was even a possibility. 

Here's how it came out.

pick

2.08:  either Owens or Holt were there 10/10 times 

3.03:  either Harrison or Boldin were there 10/10 times. K. Jones 8/10

4.08:  R. Williams available 6/10 times, C. Taylor only there 2/10

5.03:  Dunn available 10/10, Driver 9/10, Bell 9/10

6.08:  Bell 0/10  , Addai 9/10

7.03:  Dayne 10/10, Rhodes 10/10

Analysis...

Owens or Holt in the 2nd, and Harrison in the 3rd are a lock.

Looks like Bell and Dayne is out of the question for 6th and 7th, but could be had easily at 5th and 7th rounds.

If I want Addai and Rhodes, I can get them in the 6th and 7th.

There's a 60% chance I get R. Williams in the 4th.

So, this looks to be the safest route:

1st SA

2nd Owens/Holt

3rd Harrison

4th R. Williams

5th Dunn

6th Addai

7th Rhodes

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

Is this 10 or 12 team leagues. I am absolutely shocked Dunn was availible. I also agree with Wimer that unless your draft is this week a lot of this discussion doesn't matter...but it is still worth thinking about.

10 team league...like I said before our league awards 6pts to QB Tds (not factored into this info)....so this is even more likely to happen in my league.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

 

[Marc Levin]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

all three are EXCELLENT choices for QB1 (along with Warner) if they are available.

 

[shadow2k]

That said, I do not recall ANY problems last year determining who was Shannie's starting RB. It was MA at all times until the game when he was injured and it was Bell. When MA was healthy enough to play, he was the starter. Period.

239/173 in 15 games each. Works out to 16/12 per game. Bell had more carries 1/4th of the time. I don't care what Shanahan says (I've learned not to listen to him). He would simply start Anderson, then play the hot hand. That's RBBC.

 

[Marc Levin]

That said, I do not recall ANY problems last year determining who was Shannie's starting RB. It was MA at all times until the game when he was injured and it was Bell. When MA was healthy enough to play, he was the starter.  Period.

239/173 in 15 games each. Works out to 16/12 per game. Bell had more carries 1/4th of the time. I don't care what Shanahan says (I've learned not to listen to him). He would simply start Anderson, then play the hot hand. That's RBBC.

good point.

 

[There it is]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

Has anyone in your league ever waited until the 8th rnd to draft QB # 1?

 

[Marc Levin]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

Has anyone in your league ever waited until the 8th rnd to draft QB # 1?

can't speak for deuce's wild, but I can for mine.Yes - me. Everyone else, OTOH, has one by the end of the 6th/top of the 7th - some are drafting #2 when I take #1.

I always have a top-5 QB - every single year. This year, the possibility of that occurring is even greater - I could see any of Plummer, Brooks or Warner finishing in the top-5 (at least on a per game basis) and all three are easy to "backup" with a decent option.

 

[There it is]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

Has anyone in your league ever waited until the 8th rnd to draft QB # 1?

can't speak for deuce's wild, but I can for mine.Yes - me. Everyone else, OTOH, has one by the end of the 6th/top of the 7th - some are drafting #2 when I take #1.

I always have a top-5 QB - every single year. This year, the possibility of that occurring is even greater - I could see any of Plummer, Brooks or Warner finishing in the top-5 (at least on a per game basis) and all three are easy to "backup" with a decent option.

Is this a10 owner 6pt per td passing league?Mine was from 1991 to 2003 or 2004, and I can tell you first hand that if you didnot have a QB by rnd 5 the other 9 of us would draft our second just to stop you. Then offer a trade. be prepared to take QB ranked 16 or lower, if so, your gold.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

Has anyone in your league ever waited until the 8th rnd to draft QB # 1?

2 owners waited until the 7th last year, everyone else had at least one qb. Manning, McNabb and Culpepper went in rds 1-2. Don't forget the 6pt for qb td.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

Has anyone in your league ever waited until the 8th rnd to draft QB # 1?

can't speak for deuce's wild, but I can for mine.Yes - me. Everyone else, OTOH, has one by the end of the 6th/top of the 7th - some are drafting #2 when I take #1.

I always have a top-5 QB - every single year. This year, the possibility of that occurring is even greater - I could see any of Plummer, Brooks or Warner finishing in the top-5 (at least on a per game basis) and all three are easy to "backup" with a decent option.

Is this a10 owner 6pt per td passing league?Mine was from 1991 to 2003 or 2004, and I can tell you first hand that if you didnot have a QB by rnd 5 the other 9 of us would draft our second just to stop you. Then offer a trade. be prepared to take QB ranked 16 or lower, if so, your gold.

I realize this is possible. But, I feel okay with having a Kitna or Brooks, who both should be there at 8th rd.

 

[There it is]

Gold brother GOLD.

 

[Marc Levin]

or, this will work too

1st SA

2ndOwens/Holt

3rd K.Jones

4th R. Williams

5th Bell

6th D. Mason (ADP 7.04)

7th Dayne

I like this start to the draft better than the other one. Solidly three deep at both RB and WRHow far back are you at QB now? If Bell/Dayne works out, you have KJones to trade for a decent QB, but I'd like to know if you can still land Warner/McNair/maybe Leftwich in the 8th?

My plan is take a QB in the 8th....hoping to land Brooks (ADP 11.04)less likely would be Bledsoe (ADP 8.08) or Plummer (ADP 9.06)

Has anyone in your league ever waited until the 8th rnd to draft QB # 1?

can't speak for deuce's wild, but I can for mine.Yes - me. Everyone else, OTOH, has one by the end of the 6th/top of the 7th - some are drafting #2 when I take #1.

I always have a top-5 QB - every single year. This year, the possibility of that occurring is even greater - I could see any of Plummer, Brooks or Warner finishing in the top-5 (at least on a per game basis) and all three are easy to "backup" with a decent option.

Is this a10 owner 6pt per td passing league?Mine was from 1991 to 2003 or 2004, and I can tell you first hand that if you didnot have a QB by rnd 5 the other 9 of us would draft our second just to stop you. Then offer a trade. be prepared to take QB ranked 16 or lower, if so, your gold.

nope - 12 owner, 4pts/pass, 6pts/rush TDs, -1 per int.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

For those interested, I'm going to apply projected point totals for this the two possibilities I listed and see which looks better on paper.

 

[Marc Levin]

For those interested, I'm going to apply projected point totals for this the two possibilities I listed and see which looks better on paper.

i'd be more interested in about three weeks when some of the situations shake out and drafting is in full swing.