Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Greetings everyone,
Hopefully you had a great summer and are ready for some football. I've been writing this weekly thread for a long time and by now most of you know what's up. The idea in this thread is always about your ideas not just mine. We(The FBG Community) welcome differing POV, we welcome statistical analysis, we even welcome the ole gut around here. What we don't welcome are folks who are so closed minded they would rather tear apart the opposing poster than engage in any meaningful posts or exchange of ideas. And that's all I'm going to say about that. (Thanks Forrest)
One other thing I want to touch on and let you all know upfront. There is a good chance many weeks you will see a very slimmed down version. I have a lot more on my plate in my real life fighting crime and evil in my MOP cape. Seriously though I just finished a degree, am going into a fairly time consuming lifestyle, and in general my leisure time is getting cut way back so please understand. I actually was about 50/50 if I should even start this up again but I will try and do my best to help where needed.
Let's go through a few week 1 rules I always like to remind folks about.
1-This thread is really designed for redraft. If you play in dynasty and have the same players year in and year out you will get frustrated in here, especially if I start picking on your guys. So do us a favor and if you want to discuss a certain RB, let the rest of us know that it's coming from a dynasty owner. In dynasty I might understand why you are playing Delone Carter week 1, but in redraft it doesn't make much sense.
2-Stick with what you know over the unknown.
3-Don't jump to conclusions on the 1st week. I know we are all pseudo scouts for the NFL and we always see it crystal clear on who should be starting but try and keep an open mind to the overall situation.
4-Check the OL/DL/LB injuries on the weekly NFL injury report or simply IR...we won't be using IR in this thread to mean injured reserve but rather the injury report. These 3 positions are vital when trying to guess what a player might do.
5-I use a color system to highlight players that I think might be overlooked or are being over hyped that week. I can highlight ADP each week and bat about 75% on the season and shoot to the tops of the "experts" but that's pointless and not what the thread is designed for. Green is for money or money play of the week. Red means stop, don't play this RB if you have better options. Blue usually means injury. I don't have a set number for each color, just call them like I see it.
And finally, there is an Asst Coach's forum that I know folks wish was incorporated more into the SP but we should honor the rules here. I don't mind the WDIS questions as much but many posters don't want to read it so if you have something that would go beyond this thread just shoot me a PM and include your scoring rules etc...
Cleveland at Cincinnati
This looks like a great way to start off for both teams. Owners are going to love the track history for both runners. Obviously past stats are not always indicative of future stats but I think you'll agree for the most part that this looks good both ways.
Peyton Hillis exploded on to the scene last year and it took a long time to convince me he was the right guy. He seems to be capable of being a 3 down back. His 2 games against Cinci last year saw 27/102/TD, 2/8 and 14/59, 2/23. So the 2nd time out was not as strong but it was towards the end of the year and we all feel he was worn down at that point. I like his chances week 1 for sure.
Cedric Benson is sitting in a 1 bunk Hilton while I am typing this but hopefully he is out by the end of next week in time for the game. (He's OUT) If he cannot go then you might see some combination at RB with Bernard Scott getting a good bit of the workload. Benson last season was ho hum but against Cleveland he posted 31/150/TD and 38/171 in the 2nd meeting. I would not hesitate to play him if he is the starter week 1. (He Is) If it turns out to be Scott I would assume you have better options in redrafts.
Injury Update: Rookie lineman Clint Boling will start at RG fro Cinci, he's from Georgia. Major downgrade from Bobbie Williams. I'm sure he will be worried about pass protection but I am more concerned about his run blocking.
The last 4 meetings between the 2 teams have resulted in Cinci wins 3 out of the 4 times and a combined point differential of only 17 spread over 4 games. Cinci won 23-20, 16-7, and 19-17, Cle won 23-20 in the other game. I would expect this to be close except I hate Dalton as a starting QB if that is what happens.
Final Score: Cleveland 23...Cincinnati 13
Buffalo at Kansas City
The Bills were one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL last year allowing close to 5 yds a clip and a TD per game. Jamaal Charles owners must be licking their chops after having heart palpitations watching Tony Danza make Charles play in the 2nd half of a meaningless preseason game last week. Maybe if that turdmonster had taken some of the other games more seriously instead of a Pop Warner scrimmage contest perhaps he wouldn't feel the need to evaluate Charles so late in the game.
These two teams have recent history which is nice to get a feel for this game. Buffalo does not win a ton of road games but they have managed to take 2 out of 3 from the Chiefs the past 3 seasons as this will be the 4th time they have met in 4 years. In 2008, the Bills won 54-31, In 2009 they won 16-10 in week 14, and then last year in week 7 they lost 13-10. I know KC is tough in home openers over the years but Buffalo has to feel like they have a good chance in this game.
Let's discuss Freddie Jackson because a lot of owners were all too happy to scoop him up in the 6th round this year, but I can't really put a strong push for him in week1. I believe the Bills will make an effort to have CJ Spiller more active in these games. Last year Fred Jackson only had 15 or more carries in 6 games for the season. His numbers against the Chiefs are 20/64 in 2010, and 20/99 in 2009. His other road games last year include 23/73@Bal, 15/36@Mia, 13/35@NYJ...now those might be 3 of the tougher run defenses but this is why I think Buffalo wants to use Spiller more especially since the Chiefs are not defensive juggernauts, not yet anyways. Fred Jackson is going to get action but I like a wait and see approach for the moment.
The OL also is all over the place right now, not even sure the Bills know what their depth chart actually looks like. We'll know more after the KC contest.
Jamaal Charles in 2009 notches 20/143, 7/38/TD...then in 2010 he racked up 22/177, 4/61. He has over 410 yards of offense against the Bills the last 2 years so I'm sure Haley will bench him once he catches wind of it...show him who the boss is. Of course you are going to start Charles but don't bellyache when Thomas Jones gets 12-15 touches in this game.
Final Score: Buffalo 20...Kansas City 17
Philadelphia at St Louis
Shady had 1 game on the road in a dome. Last year he played Detroit and did pretty good. I think this game will be closer than some think. Shady owners are not interested in if they want to start him or not, they simply want to know how many points he will rack. I think he has a solid if not spectacular performance this week simply because Philly has been banged up in their WR corp. I would guess McCoy is headed for 5-6 receptions, perhaps more this week.
Jackson has looked fairly pedestrian and you want to assume he was saving it for the season opener. Philly defense is hyped but is it really tough in the front 7 against the run? You have to think most teams are going to run the ball, try and control the clock and keep Vick on the bench. Wanting to do it and executing it are different.
Final Score: Philly 24...St Louis 20
Atlanta at Chicago
Atlanta's starting Center Todd McClure is out for this game, they also lost their starting RG Dahl to free agency. I think that is going to create some problems for them trying to run the football. I could also see some blocking assignments on pass protection being a slight issue as well although Center is not usually the place defenses come crashing through. Michael Turner is going to have some big games this year, feel very confident about that but I'm afraid this will not be the week to get him out there. If you have other options I might wait a week on him. There is a lot of hype about Atlanta but opening on the road against Chicago, not a big fan of the match up.
I am not a fan of the Bears OL. Not liking them on paper and actually seeing them in action are two different things. I don't have a major reason to not start Matt Forte or to say he will have a spectacular performance. He struggled a lot on the ground last year but he catches a lot of balls so that always helps. If you drafted him in he 2nd, no reason to think he won't combine for at least 75 yds and maybe 3-4 receptions. Injury Update Marion Barber is OUT
Final Score: Chicago 20...Atlanta 17
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Over the last 2 years we have seen TN win 30-3 @Jax, and also 30-13 at home. Jax won 17-6 @TN, and lost 37-17 at home. Despite being a division rivalry the avg win has been about 18-19 pts a game so if you can figure out who will win, you have been beating the spread just about every time. Not that any of us would ever want to wage money on these games.
Chris Johnson is said to be getting a full slate of touches this week which is why I am putting him in green. I see no reason not to start him but I will say outside of a wicked 24/228/2TD that started his 2009 explosion in about week 7; the majority of his games have been avg. Even last year Jeff Fisher was force feeding him at the end of one of these blowouts so Fisher's FF team didn't lose that week. I won't be benching him in any format I own him.
MJD has some solid games against Tennessee. 2009 @TN, 8/177/2TD, 2010 @TN, 31/186. For some reason he has played them better on the road than at home but Jax doesn't have a lot of options. I expect MJD to be active, involved, and a solid play against a Tennessee team that has a new coach and will be looking to figure out who they are now. Eben Britton might be back in the rotation along the OL which is good news for MJD running off-tackle. Expect the jags to lean on MJD for most o the season.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24...Tennessee 14
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Mendy the last 2 years...24/95, 17/36/TD, 25/79/TD, 19/45...has not been easy but what are the options? Baltimore has been documented on these boards as not having the strongest run defense as in years past. I still feel they are pretty tough and you have to think week 1 at home in a game that might mean more to the Ravens than the Steelers, they are going to bring their "A" game. If you went deep at RB and you have easier options I would not hesitate to bench Mendy as you will have much easier contests to pick through in the coming weeks.
Good news for the OL in Baltimore. Andre Gurode was signed and while he won't start he makes a great reserve for them should anyone in the interior have a hiccup during the year. I believe Birk is returning form knee surgery and has been battling some nagging injuries but either way I like what they did. Not a fan of McKinnie but flipping Oher to the right side is going to make life easier for Ray Rice running off-tackle to that side of the line. Rice the last two years...19/88rush 5/67rec, 30/141, then last year he had only 8/20 and then 9/32 in the next contest. Pittsburgh had the best rush defense by a mile last year. This might be a tough match up but I feel like Rice will also have some holes to run through with the OL in place, maturation of Flacco, and some desire to prove he can do it all.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24...Baltimore 21
Indianapolis at Houston
This game is difficult to discuss because of major injuries to Peyton Manning and also the conflicting reports about Arian Foster. I believe Foster will play but I don't think he will be overused. That does not mean I would bench him and miss out on 15-20 touches in an explosive offense against a run deficient defense. I would not try and get cute, trying to start Ben Tate or Derrick Ward. My opinion if Foster is out for any games that Ward will see significant action. If Foster is healthy then I believe you will see more Ben Tate in the COP role even though it's not really so much a COP as it is fresh legs.
Indianapolis has a pretty shaky OLine and I expect Joseph Addai to get plenty of touches as well as Delone Carter seeing action. I do not think either of them will perform particularly well without the big arm of Peyton Manning clearing the way. Going from Manning to Collins who was ready to retire is huge. If you have to play Addai, then expect a limited upside despite maybe having 15+ touches especially with Manning out.
All that said, this game is critical for Houston. The Texans are going to have the best chance ever to take this division and they need to seize the opportunity. The season will unravel quickly if they lose at home in the opener. With Manning out I don't think thumbing thru the archives is going to help much.
Final Score: Houston 30...Indianapolis 20
Detroit at Tampa Bay
The Lions marched into Tampa Bay last year and won a game that cost the Bucs a chance to get into the playoffs. I think this game should be exciting as you have two up and coming QBs for both teams, both going into year 3, two RBs both going into year 2 that look promising, and both teams have a dynamic WR1 although I think Calvin is clearly the better receiver right now.
Tampa Bay was not a great run defense last year however the 2nd half of the season they improved quite a bit with a couple hiccup games including this one last year. Tampa Bay has decent speed so I don't think Jahvid Best, who actually did not participate much in the game last year, I don't expect a big opening week from him. I am anxious to see Jerome Harrison and if he is going to be the guy they hand the ball off to in some running situations(Sneaky waiver wire move if he is available.). I would not be surprised if Harrison had a score this week when they set up shop inside the red zone. I am not telling you to play him ahead of anyone though. Just the MOP gut, nothing else.
Blount will start for the Bucs and we should see if the Lions are gettng better against the run. I do think the heat is going to hit the Lions hard on a Sunday afternoon in September in Florida, can be mighty sticky and teams in Florida have a huge advantage as it is still pretty much summer here until late October. I would suspect Blount will have a softer defense to plow through in the 4th and the Bucs will keep it close with a chance to get some revenge for last year. Should be a close game with both QBs having their moments.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 24...Detroit 21
Carolina at Arizona
Cam Newton at least has a fighting chance of getting his club going this weekend. The Cardinals should still have the upper hand but both offenses should move the ball. I expect some of the starters on both sides to put up top10-20 numbers at the various skill positions. Don't sleep on this game.
DeAngelo should be ready to roll in this one. If he has a quiet day on Sunday it really is going to be a long painful year for owners once again. This defense might be ok in a best ball rotation of 2-3 defenses but in real NFL terms I believe it is pretty weak. Only 3 times did AZ hold the opposition to under 100 yds rushing last year. I would start DWill with confidence and while you cannot start JStew, also would not surprise me if he makes an appearance in this game too.
Christopher Wells is one of my least favorite starting RBs in the NFL, very little faith in him going into the season. That said he should be OK this week. There is no one to really push him and Carolina looks to be one of the worst defenses heading into the season. Their first team defense hasn't stopped anyone and Arizona has plenty of weapons to stretch the defense out. This is one of Wells best chances to crack the top12. We'll see how he does.
Final Score: Arizona 31...Carolina 17
Minnesota at San Diego
I would like to think that McNabb could go on the road and with a strong running game behind him, be able to muster a close game. San Diego is notorious for slow starts under Norv Turner but this game is at home and the Bolts look pretty strong heading into the season. On paper they should win the game. The Vikings are going to have their moments this year but I don't see them flying across the country and knocking off San Diego week 1.
Adrian Peterson is going to be an automatic unless something weird happens during the season. I simply won't be writing about him too often and not because I don't like him, in fact I own him in multiple leagues but there isn't a lot to say. No matter what you are going to play him.
The Vikings are pretty good against the run usually, fell off some last year and they have a suspension on the interior of the DLine so I thin San Diego will have some room to run. The Ryan Mathews long run for a TD in the last preseason game got folks excited but I watched that play a few times, really not that impressive when you look at the blocking and also the terrible positioning by the defense on that play. I'm not sure you can count on those types of runs very often. Mike Tolbert is going to see touches and I expect a 60/40 split with Tolbert seeing the ball near the end zone whenever they are driving. They could have similar days fantasy wise.
Final Score: San Diego 27...Minnesota 20
Seattle at San Francisco
Two pretty bad teams but the problem here is they both have 2 pretty awful veteran QBs in TJax and Alex Smith. Marshawn Lynch is coming off an injury that has kept him out for a good chunk of camp. I don't think Forsett or Leon will have more touches than Lynch will have but I also am not expecting a big day out of him. Limited flex option is how I would look at him. Until Seattle can prove they have the ability to sustain a passing attack I wouldn't expect much. Also Robert Gallery could be out for Seattle on their OL so nothing is working in their favor right now.
Frank Gore got his contract extension. I am still a mild fan of the OL here for the Niners and hope we see some that come into focus this weekend. San Fran has a slightly better passing attack but I wouldn't expect miracles. Gore catches quite a few balls so he should make a run at top12 this week. Gore has not had a bad game against Seattle at the Stick since he came into the league. If this were in Seattle I might feel different.
Final Score: San Fran 21...Seattle 16
NY Giants at Washington
The Skins rush defense at home the last 3 years against the Giants has been pretty solid. Right around 100 yds a game so is that 60 for Bradshaw and 40 for Jacobs? I think it will be more of the same. Bradshaw with his receptions is a stronger play in PPR, and folks will find that Jacobs TD will flow but be unpredictable when they will happen.
Hightower started going in the 4th/5th round of a lot of drafts so unless you have a superior option I can't understand why you would not want to start him. Hightower has the speed to take it to the house on any play. hHe is now in a 1 cut and go system also known as zone blocking. I like Washington in a mild upset.
Final Score: Washington 24...NY Giants 21
Dallas at NYJets
Ever see that scene in Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon when the chick walks into the arena and simply says "Get Out!" I'm warning Dallas fans now, rough water ahead in this thread. I cannot say strongly enough how appalled(to horrify) I am about the OLine they are going to roll with. The rookie RT is OUT possibly the next month, other rookies playing and a lot of inexperience. Free and Kosier cannot play all 5 positons so I'm not real sure what Dallas thinks is going to happen here. Romo won't have time to throw so you can just move Dez and Miles down your charts fyi...Witten might have to stay in and block so that limits him too.
Felix Jones? Good luck. He might rip a long one off , after Chris Johnson he is one of the more dangerous and fast RBs in the leaue but where is he going ot find space this week? I'll keep it neutral(changed my mind) but I don't expect a great game this week.
Dallas is weaker against the pass right now but after the Jets loosen them up I think they will be running the ball quite a bit and let Romo and crew watch the game from the stands. I like Greene this week and LT will see some good action too. LT as a flex is not a bad idea. The Jets are going to blow out the Cowboys Sunday night so sure Greene/LT will be running the clock out.
Final Score: NY Jets 38...Dallas 12
New England at Miami
Head Coach Tony Sporano pumped noise thru speakers into the practices this week. Why would a HC do that when Miami is playing at home? Because the Phinsfans have left in droves and most suspect there will be even more Patsfans in the stands on Monday. Something like 35,000 season tickets for the Miami Dolphins have been sold this season, lowest in 2-3 decades. I thin Miami will give them a run for their money but we'll see.
New England RBs...start BJGE, as I recall he did alright against the Phins last year down here. I also like Woodhead in the flex assuming he is healthy.
The Phins have signed Larry Johnson...and Daniel Thomas(Gonna be seeing that color a lot) is not practicing with a mild hammy problem. Reggie Bush looks like he is ready to roll...to the sidelines, sorry couldn't help myself. Do you know where Reggie's Heisman is? You know the one he agreed to give back? In his house still...fyi Dan LeBatard mentioned this a few times over the last month. I don't trust Reggie Bush but he likely will be given a lot of touches and receptions in this game. I'm sure the Pats will be ready for him.
Final Score: New England 34...Miami 24
Oakland at Denver
This one is short and sweet. DMC racked 350 yds and 4 TDs agains the Broncos last year. I'm sure Fox has been playing the tapes for these guys and getting them fired up to sell out and stop him. I don't know that Denver will be much better right away this year. I wouldn't expect anything close to last year but he has a nice match up and should make a run at top12-15 this week.
I think folks might be surprised by McGahee on Monday Night but I think he will see some serious action especially when Denver gets near the end zone. Knowshon Moreno has not seized the starting gig, coaches open in training camp about him not being a 3 down type back and possibly not a feature back, just not feeling the Moreno love.
Final Score Denver 23...Oakland 20
Try to relax and enjoy the opening week of the season. When you post up if you could share your beer/drink of choice for Sundays to start or end the post, much appreciated.
-Amstel Light...GO!!!
Hopefully you had a great summer and are ready for some football. I've been writing this weekly thread for a long time and by now most of you know what's up. The idea in this thread is always about your ideas not just mine. We(The FBG Community) welcome differing POV, we welcome statistical analysis, we even welcome the ole gut around here. What we don't welcome are folks who are so closed minded they would rather tear apart the opposing poster than engage in any meaningful posts or exchange of ideas. And that's all I'm going to say about that. (Thanks Forrest)
One other thing I want to touch on and let you all know upfront. There is a good chance many weeks you will see a very slimmed down version. I have a lot more on my plate in my real life fighting crime and evil in my MOP cape. Seriously though I just finished a degree, am going into a fairly time consuming lifestyle, and in general my leisure time is getting cut way back so please understand. I actually was about 50/50 if I should even start this up again but I will try and do my best to help where needed.
Let's go through a few week 1 rules I always like to remind folks about.
1-This thread is really designed for redraft. If you play in dynasty and have the same players year in and year out you will get frustrated in here, especially if I start picking on your guys. So do us a favor and if you want to discuss a certain RB, let the rest of us know that it's coming from a dynasty owner. In dynasty I might understand why you are playing Delone Carter week 1, but in redraft it doesn't make much sense.
2-Stick with what you know over the unknown.
3-Don't jump to conclusions on the 1st week. I know we are all pseudo scouts for the NFL and we always see it crystal clear on who should be starting but try and keep an open mind to the overall situation.
4-Check the OL/DL/LB injuries on the weekly NFL injury report or simply IR...we won't be using IR in this thread to mean injured reserve but rather the injury report. These 3 positions are vital when trying to guess what a player might do.
5-I use a color system to highlight players that I think might be overlooked or are being over hyped that week. I can highlight ADP each week and bat about 75% on the season and shoot to the tops of the "experts" but that's pointless and not what the thread is designed for. Green is for money or money play of the week. Red means stop, don't play this RB if you have better options. Blue usually means injury. I don't have a set number for each color, just call them like I see it.
And finally, there is an Asst Coach's forum that I know folks wish was incorporated more into the SP but we should honor the rules here. I don't mind the WDIS questions as much but many posters don't want to read it so if you have something that would go beyond this thread just shoot me a PM and include your scoring rules etc...
Cleveland at Cincinnati
This looks like a great way to start off for both teams. Owners are going to love the track history for both runners. Obviously past stats are not always indicative of future stats but I think you'll agree for the most part that this looks good both ways.
Peyton Hillis exploded on to the scene last year and it took a long time to convince me he was the right guy. He seems to be capable of being a 3 down back. His 2 games against Cinci last year saw 27/102/TD, 2/8 and 14/59, 2/23. So the 2nd time out was not as strong but it was towards the end of the year and we all feel he was worn down at that point. I like his chances week 1 for sure.
Cedric Benson is sitting in a 1 bunk Hilton while I am typing this but hopefully he is out by the end of next week in time for the game. (He's OUT) If he cannot go then you might see some combination at RB with Bernard Scott getting a good bit of the workload. Benson last season was ho hum but against Cleveland he posted 31/150/TD and 38/171 in the 2nd meeting. I would not hesitate to play him if he is the starter week 1. (He Is) If it turns out to be Scott I would assume you have better options in redrafts.
Injury Update: Rookie lineman Clint Boling will start at RG fro Cinci, he's from Georgia. Major downgrade from Bobbie Williams. I'm sure he will be worried about pass protection but I am more concerned about his run blocking.
The last 4 meetings between the 2 teams have resulted in Cinci wins 3 out of the 4 times and a combined point differential of only 17 spread over 4 games. Cinci won 23-20, 16-7, and 19-17, Cle won 23-20 in the other game. I would expect this to be close except I hate Dalton as a starting QB if that is what happens.
Final Score: Cleveland 23...Cincinnati 13
Buffalo at Kansas City
The Bills were one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL last year allowing close to 5 yds a clip and a TD per game. Jamaal Charles owners must be licking their chops after having heart palpitations watching Tony Danza make Charles play in the 2nd half of a meaningless preseason game last week. Maybe if that turdmonster had taken some of the other games more seriously instead of a Pop Warner scrimmage contest perhaps he wouldn't feel the need to evaluate Charles so late in the game.
These two teams have recent history which is nice to get a feel for this game. Buffalo does not win a ton of road games but they have managed to take 2 out of 3 from the Chiefs the past 3 seasons as this will be the 4th time they have met in 4 years. In 2008, the Bills won 54-31, In 2009 they won 16-10 in week 14, and then last year in week 7 they lost 13-10. I know KC is tough in home openers over the years but Buffalo has to feel like they have a good chance in this game.
Let's discuss Freddie Jackson because a lot of owners were all too happy to scoop him up in the 6th round this year, but I can't really put a strong push for him in week1. I believe the Bills will make an effort to have CJ Spiller more active in these games. Last year Fred Jackson only had 15 or more carries in 6 games for the season. His numbers against the Chiefs are 20/64 in 2010, and 20/99 in 2009. His other road games last year include 23/73@Bal, 15/36@Mia, 13/35@NYJ...now those might be 3 of the tougher run defenses but this is why I think Buffalo wants to use Spiller more especially since the Chiefs are not defensive juggernauts, not yet anyways. Fred Jackson is going to get action but I like a wait and see approach for the moment.
The OL also is all over the place right now, not even sure the Bills know what their depth chart actually looks like. We'll know more after the KC contest.
Jamaal Charles in 2009 notches 20/143, 7/38/TD...then in 2010 he racked up 22/177, 4/61. He has over 410 yards of offense against the Bills the last 2 years so I'm sure Haley will bench him once he catches wind of it...show him who the boss is. Of course you are going to start Charles but don't bellyache when Thomas Jones gets 12-15 touches in this game.
Final Score: Buffalo 20...Kansas City 17
Philadelphia at St Louis
Shady had 1 game on the road in a dome. Last year he played Detroit and did pretty good. I think this game will be closer than some think. Shady owners are not interested in if they want to start him or not, they simply want to know how many points he will rack. I think he has a solid if not spectacular performance this week simply because Philly has been banged up in their WR corp. I would guess McCoy is headed for 5-6 receptions, perhaps more this week.
Jackson has looked fairly pedestrian and you want to assume he was saving it for the season opener. Philly defense is hyped but is it really tough in the front 7 against the run? You have to think most teams are going to run the ball, try and control the clock and keep Vick on the bench. Wanting to do it and executing it are different.
Final Score: Philly 24...St Louis 20
Atlanta at Chicago
Atlanta's starting Center Todd McClure is out for this game, they also lost their starting RG Dahl to free agency. I think that is going to create some problems for them trying to run the football. I could also see some blocking assignments on pass protection being a slight issue as well although Center is not usually the place defenses come crashing through. Michael Turner is going to have some big games this year, feel very confident about that but I'm afraid this will not be the week to get him out there. If you have other options I might wait a week on him. There is a lot of hype about Atlanta but opening on the road against Chicago, not a big fan of the match up.
I am not a fan of the Bears OL. Not liking them on paper and actually seeing them in action are two different things. I don't have a major reason to not start Matt Forte or to say he will have a spectacular performance. He struggled a lot on the ground last year but he catches a lot of balls so that always helps. If you drafted him in he 2nd, no reason to think he won't combine for at least 75 yds and maybe 3-4 receptions. Injury Update Marion Barber is OUT
Final Score: Chicago 20...Atlanta 17
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Over the last 2 years we have seen TN win 30-3 @Jax, and also 30-13 at home. Jax won 17-6 @TN, and lost 37-17 at home. Despite being a division rivalry the avg win has been about 18-19 pts a game so if you can figure out who will win, you have been beating the spread just about every time. Not that any of us would ever want to wage money on these games.
Chris Johnson is said to be getting a full slate of touches this week which is why I am putting him in green. I see no reason not to start him but I will say outside of a wicked 24/228/2TD that started his 2009 explosion in about week 7; the majority of his games have been avg. Even last year Jeff Fisher was force feeding him at the end of one of these blowouts so Fisher's FF team didn't lose that week. I won't be benching him in any format I own him.
MJD has some solid games against Tennessee. 2009 @TN, 8/177/2TD, 2010 @TN, 31/186. For some reason he has played them better on the road than at home but Jax doesn't have a lot of options. I expect MJD to be active, involved, and a solid play against a Tennessee team that has a new coach and will be looking to figure out who they are now. Eben Britton might be back in the rotation along the OL which is good news for MJD running off-tackle. Expect the jags to lean on MJD for most o the season.
Final Score: Jacksonville 24...Tennessee 14
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Mendy the last 2 years...24/95, 17/36/TD, 25/79/TD, 19/45...has not been easy but what are the options? Baltimore has been documented on these boards as not having the strongest run defense as in years past. I still feel they are pretty tough and you have to think week 1 at home in a game that might mean more to the Ravens than the Steelers, they are going to bring their "A" game. If you went deep at RB and you have easier options I would not hesitate to bench Mendy as you will have much easier contests to pick through in the coming weeks.
Good news for the OL in Baltimore. Andre Gurode was signed and while he won't start he makes a great reserve for them should anyone in the interior have a hiccup during the year. I believe Birk is returning form knee surgery and has been battling some nagging injuries but either way I like what they did. Not a fan of McKinnie but flipping Oher to the right side is going to make life easier for Ray Rice running off-tackle to that side of the line. Rice the last two years...19/88rush 5/67rec, 30/141, then last year he had only 8/20 and then 9/32 in the next contest. Pittsburgh had the best rush defense by a mile last year. This might be a tough match up but I feel like Rice will also have some holes to run through with the OL in place, maturation of Flacco, and some desire to prove he can do it all.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24...Baltimore 21
Indianapolis at Houston
This game is difficult to discuss because of major injuries to Peyton Manning and also the conflicting reports about Arian Foster. I believe Foster will play but I don't think he will be overused. That does not mean I would bench him and miss out on 15-20 touches in an explosive offense against a run deficient defense. I would not try and get cute, trying to start Ben Tate or Derrick Ward. My opinion if Foster is out for any games that Ward will see significant action. If Foster is healthy then I believe you will see more Ben Tate in the COP role even though it's not really so much a COP as it is fresh legs.
Indianapolis has a pretty shaky OLine and I expect Joseph Addai to get plenty of touches as well as Delone Carter seeing action. I do not think either of them will perform particularly well without the big arm of Peyton Manning clearing the way. Going from Manning to Collins who was ready to retire is huge. If you have to play Addai, then expect a limited upside despite maybe having 15+ touches especially with Manning out.
All that said, this game is critical for Houston. The Texans are going to have the best chance ever to take this division and they need to seize the opportunity. The season will unravel quickly if they lose at home in the opener. With Manning out I don't think thumbing thru the archives is going to help much.
Final Score: Houston 30...Indianapolis 20
Detroit at Tampa Bay
The Lions marched into Tampa Bay last year and won a game that cost the Bucs a chance to get into the playoffs. I think this game should be exciting as you have two up and coming QBs for both teams, both going into year 3, two RBs both going into year 2 that look promising, and both teams have a dynamic WR1 although I think Calvin is clearly the better receiver right now.
Tampa Bay was not a great run defense last year however the 2nd half of the season they improved quite a bit with a couple hiccup games including this one last year. Tampa Bay has decent speed so I don't think Jahvid Best, who actually did not participate much in the game last year, I don't expect a big opening week from him. I am anxious to see Jerome Harrison and if he is going to be the guy they hand the ball off to in some running situations(Sneaky waiver wire move if he is available.). I would not be surprised if Harrison had a score this week when they set up shop inside the red zone. I am not telling you to play him ahead of anyone though. Just the MOP gut, nothing else.
Blount will start for the Bucs and we should see if the Lions are gettng better against the run. I do think the heat is going to hit the Lions hard on a Sunday afternoon in September in Florida, can be mighty sticky and teams in Florida have a huge advantage as it is still pretty much summer here until late October. I would suspect Blount will have a softer defense to plow through in the 4th and the Bucs will keep it close with a chance to get some revenge for last year. Should be a close game with both QBs having their moments.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 24...Detroit 21
Carolina at Arizona
Cam Newton at least has a fighting chance of getting his club going this weekend. The Cardinals should still have the upper hand but both offenses should move the ball. I expect some of the starters on both sides to put up top10-20 numbers at the various skill positions. Don't sleep on this game.
DeAngelo should be ready to roll in this one. If he has a quiet day on Sunday it really is going to be a long painful year for owners once again. This defense might be ok in a best ball rotation of 2-3 defenses but in real NFL terms I believe it is pretty weak. Only 3 times did AZ hold the opposition to under 100 yds rushing last year. I would start DWill with confidence and while you cannot start JStew, also would not surprise me if he makes an appearance in this game too.
Christopher Wells is one of my least favorite starting RBs in the NFL, very little faith in him going into the season. That said he should be OK this week. There is no one to really push him and Carolina looks to be one of the worst defenses heading into the season. Their first team defense hasn't stopped anyone and Arizona has plenty of weapons to stretch the defense out. This is one of Wells best chances to crack the top12. We'll see how he does.
Final Score: Arizona 31...Carolina 17
Minnesota at San Diego
I would like to think that McNabb could go on the road and with a strong running game behind him, be able to muster a close game. San Diego is notorious for slow starts under Norv Turner but this game is at home and the Bolts look pretty strong heading into the season. On paper they should win the game. The Vikings are going to have their moments this year but I don't see them flying across the country and knocking off San Diego week 1.
Adrian Peterson is going to be an automatic unless something weird happens during the season. I simply won't be writing about him too often and not because I don't like him, in fact I own him in multiple leagues but there isn't a lot to say. No matter what you are going to play him.
The Vikings are pretty good against the run usually, fell off some last year and they have a suspension on the interior of the DLine so I thin San Diego will have some room to run. The Ryan Mathews long run for a TD in the last preseason game got folks excited but I watched that play a few times, really not that impressive when you look at the blocking and also the terrible positioning by the defense on that play. I'm not sure you can count on those types of runs very often. Mike Tolbert is going to see touches and I expect a 60/40 split with Tolbert seeing the ball near the end zone whenever they are driving. They could have similar days fantasy wise.
Final Score: San Diego 27...Minnesota 20
Seattle at San Francisco
Two pretty bad teams but the problem here is they both have 2 pretty awful veteran QBs in TJax and Alex Smith. Marshawn Lynch is coming off an injury that has kept him out for a good chunk of camp. I don't think Forsett or Leon will have more touches than Lynch will have but I also am not expecting a big day out of him. Limited flex option is how I would look at him. Until Seattle can prove they have the ability to sustain a passing attack I wouldn't expect much. Also Robert Gallery could be out for Seattle on their OL so nothing is working in their favor right now.
Frank Gore got his contract extension. I am still a mild fan of the OL here for the Niners and hope we see some that come into focus this weekend. San Fran has a slightly better passing attack but I wouldn't expect miracles. Gore catches quite a few balls so he should make a run at top12 this week. Gore has not had a bad game against Seattle at the Stick since he came into the league. If this were in Seattle I might feel different.
Final Score: San Fran 21...Seattle 16
NY Giants at Washington
The Skins rush defense at home the last 3 years against the Giants has been pretty solid. Right around 100 yds a game so is that 60 for Bradshaw and 40 for Jacobs? I think it will be more of the same. Bradshaw with his receptions is a stronger play in PPR, and folks will find that Jacobs TD will flow but be unpredictable when they will happen.
Hightower started going in the 4th/5th round of a lot of drafts so unless you have a superior option I can't understand why you would not want to start him. Hightower has the speed to take it to the house on any play. hHe is now in a 1 cut and go system also known as zone blocking. I like Washington in a mild upset.
Final Score: Washington 24...NY Giants 21
Dallas at NYJets
Ever see that scene in Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon when the chick walks into the arena and simply says "Get Out!" I'm warning Dallas fans now, rough water ahead in this thread. I cannot say strongly enough how appalled(to horrify) I am about the OLine they are going to roll with. The rookie RT is OUT possibly the next month, other rookies playing and a lot of inexperience. Free and Kosier cannot play all 5 positons so I'm not real sure what Dallas thinks is going to happen here. Romo won't have time to throw so you can just move Dez and Miles down your charts fyi...Witten might have to stay in and block so that limits him too.
Felix Jones? Good luck. He might rip a long one off , after Chris Johnson he is one of the more dangerous and fast RBs in the leaue but where is he going ot find space this week? I'll keep it neutral(changed my mind) but I don't expect a great game this week.
Dallas is weaker against the pass right now but after the Jets loosen them up I think they will be running the ball quite a bit and let Romo and crew watch the game from the stands. I like Greene this week and LT will see some good action too. LT as a flex is not a bad idea. The Jets are going to blow out the Cowboys Sunday night so sure Greene/LT will be running the clock out.
Final Score: NY Jets 38...Dallas 12
New England at Miami
Head Coach Tony Sporano pumped noise thru speakers into the practices this week. Why would a HC do that when Miami is playing at home? Because the Phinsfans have left in droves and most suspect there will be even more Patsfans in the stands on Monday. Something like 35,000 season tickets for the Miami Dolphins have been sold this season, lowest in 2-3 decades. I thin Miami will give them a run for their money but we'll see.
New England RBs...start BJGE, as I recall he did alright against the Phins last year down here. I also like Woodhead in the flex assuming he is healthy.
The Phins have signed Larry Johnson...and Daniel Thomas(Gonna be seeing that color a lot) is not practicing with a mild hammy problem. Reggie Bush looks like he is ready to roll...to the sidelines, sorry couldn't help myself. Do you know where Reggie's Heisman is? You know the one he agreed to give back? In his house still...fyi Dan LeBatard mentioned this a few times over the last month. I don't trust Reggie Bush but he likely will be given a lot of touches and receptions in this game. I'm sure the Pats will be ready for him.
Final Score: New England 34...Miami 24
Oakland at Denver
This one is short and sweet. DMC racked 350 yds and 4 TDs agains the Broncos last year. I'm sure Fox has been playing the tapes for these guys and getting them fired up to sell out and stop him. I don't know that Denver will be much better right away this year. I wouldn't expect anything close to last year but he has a nice match up and should make a run at top12-15 this week.
I think folks might be surprised by McGahee on Monday Night but I think he will see some serious action especially when Denver gets near the end zone. Knowshon Moreno has not seized the starting gig, coaches open in training camp about him not being a 3 down type back and possibly not a feature back, just not feeling the Moreno love.
Final Score Denver 23...Oakland 20
Try to relax and enjoy the opening week of the season. When you post up if you could share your beer/drink of choice for Sundays to start or end the post, much appreciated.
-Amstel Light...GO!!!
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) Kev
I guess it's better than amber.
