Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hello folks...let's get things rolling this week, I want to hear your takes on the games this week so jump in and lets mix it up. One of the things I want to emphasize this week is the need to look at not just the rushing defenses when examining whether to start a RB or not, but to also look at the overall match up including the pass defenses to see what you think the gameplan will be for whoever you are starting. I usually steer clear of projections but I did put some numbers in here and there where I felt they might help. Let's jump to the games and get things started.
Minnesota at Chicago
Overview: Battle for 1st place in the NFC North is on the line, and I think that is a very important piece of the equation here. The Bears have let some games slip away form them. They lost to Car 20-17, TB 27-24…they really should have won that game…and now they lose to ATL 22-20 when they had the lead with 11 seconds left and actually kicking off…they have to either be really steaming or a team that is on pins and needles.
The Vikings come into this game with a lot less behind their 3-3 record. They almost lost to the lowly Detroit Lions narrowly escaping with a 12-10 win. I still think they are the worst coached team in the NFL right now, lots of talent but just can’t seem to harness it, and they still have QB issues even with TJax out of the lineup.
The Bears are top5 very tough to run on with a 3.5 ypc avg, good for top10, almost top5, and they have allowed 4 rushing TD in 6 games. Peterson will have his work cut out for him but he has had some very big games in his young career against the very best rush defenses, so there really is not any hesitation to play him this week. The Vikings are allowing only 3.0 ypc but have managed to yield 6 rushing TDs so far, sort of an odd stat, but only 73 yds a game, far below the league average of around 115-120 a game. Forte will not have a strong day on theg round but the Bears have been smart in getting him the ball OOTB if need be and this week will not change any of that.
Adrian Peterson: 80/TD
Chester Taylor: Bench
Matt Forte: 100 total yds with some obviously coming thru the air.
Final Score: Chicago 16…Minnesota 13
Tennessee at Kansas City
Overview: The Titans were off last week and remained undefeated, haha. This week they travel to KC and I gotta be honest, I cannot see how the Chiefs pull this out of their bag of tricks. I mean they were ready to launch Gonzo, LJ if anyone would take him, they seem to be on a firesale of sorts even if they didn’t find any takers or decided to not go that route. I cannot imagine there is any unity in the locker room and I also feel herm will lose the team all together over the next couple weeks and have some sort of media meltdown that will be the beginning of ole Herm, Mr. Clock Manager, being shown the door. Does it matter that KC is abou the worst in the NFL against the run and the Titans love to run the football with White and Johnson?
Larry Johnson: 70/TD…the Titans do give up about a 100 yds and a TD each week. And the reason is their secondary has been lights out allowing about 170 a week, and they have 10 Interceptions vs 1 TD allowed in 5 games…HOLY SPIT!!! A 52 QB rating against them too…so the Chiefs have to run the ball, they have no choice…but they won’t come close to winnng this game.
Chris Johnson : 100/TD…should feast and I expect him to hit a long run in this game because the Chiefs have allowed a run of over 20+ yds 11 times already this season…imagine Johnson when he gets loose in this game.
LenDale White: I like him in this game, especially once the Titans get the lead in this game. I would not sell him short, at least 50-60 yds and a TD seems likely to me. This is a White type of game where they will run down the Chiefs throat all day long.
Final Score: Tennessee 27…Kansas City 10
New Orleans at Carolina
Overview: The Saints have managed to climb back into it and are only 1 game back of TB, CAR, and ATL who have all managed to 4-2 so far. Carolina was blown out in TB last week, almost looked like they didn’t even get off the bus. I want to highlight a couple POV in this game.
The Saints are actually below the league avg allowing just a little over 100 yds a game on the ground, nothing too special but you figure they could keep the Panthers in check…WRONG!!! And this is where stats are really misleading at times. We look a little closer and we see that they are actually giving up 4.4 ypc which is not very good at all. So why are they not giving up more yds per game you ask? Because teams feel like they need to throw the ball to keep pace with their prolific offense and thus they tend to abandon the run…something I doubt the Panthers will do this week. The Bucs just had their way on Sunday, jumped out to a lead, and then tried to keep Smith in check as much as possible, and it worked. I believe the outcome in this game will be much different.
Reggie Bush: He will get his, no doubt about it, but I expect him to get bottled up running the football. I watched Warrick Dunn run run run last week but I think Carolina is better than what they showed. Carolina actually allows close to the same yds per game as NO on the ground but the difference is they only yield 3.8 ypc and they also don’t allow very many TDs…only 2 in 6 games or a 1 in 3 chance for Bush ot see the end zone. I’ll give him his 100 yds because of the catches and whatnot but I don’t see him scoring a lot on Sunday.
Deuce McAllister: Bench this week.
DeAngelo Williams: Very up and down but I see him doing well this week and knocking in somewhere around 75-100 total yds. I am going to give the TD over to JStew this however.
JStew: 60/TD, will see some short field at times and I expect him to help Carolina close this game out when they get ahead, control the clock, shorten the game, and pull out a much needed rebound win.
Final Score: Carolina 24…New Orleans 20
Baltimore at Miami
Overview: Talk about getting kicked in the almighty jewels last week, OMG did that hurt as a Dolphins Fan. Anytime Miami sees a team with a big dominant WR such as Fitz, AJ, they are going to have problems, no one on that team can hang with those guys even slightly. The Ravens have none of that and just got lit up by Indy last week. We’ll get to the Colts in a few.
The Ravens are allowing a league low 2.8 ypc and 1 TD on the season. Miami allows only 3.5 ypc and about 1 TD every other game. When you thow in limited passing games form each side, this spells a low scoring affair IMO…real low.
I think Miami will shut down the run for Baltimore, Flacco will struggle, and this game will be low scoring as Miami does not have anything that Indy has in the passing game. The local media down here thinks Miami will handle their business on Sunday, but the MOP is not nearly as confident in the Fish and I don’t assume they will beat anyone, I actually expected them to lose to the Texans last week too.
Willis McGahee: He is coming home and will likely want to make a decent showing. I expect him to scratch and claw for 60-70 yds in this one. Maybe no TD though.
LeMac: Not this week
Ronnie Brown: Not what owners would like but at best he manages 75 yds. I just don’t see a lot of points for him, Wildcat or not.
Ricky Williams: Not this week.
Final Score: Miami 10…Baltimore 9, Penny is the difference in this game.
Dallas at St Louis
Overview: People that have a big stake in Dallas just had their heart jump into their throats over the weekend. Dallas lost Romo, Felix Jones, their Punter, and Adam “Pacman” Jones all in the same week…they might have to go with the rookie from USF, Jenkins, as one of the starting CB. They also traded their 1st, 3rd, and 6th to get Roy Williams and a 7th in return. I understand the trade, but this team is all over the map.
St Louis comes in after a big win in DC, but reall they had the game gift wrapped to them in a lot of ways…Bulger didn’t even manage 100 yds passing IIRC…just pathetic. I do think they will have a little more success on offense this week…but I also think there is one sane person on defense for Dallas that is going to get those guys rallied, focused, and if there was ever a time to lean on Zach Thomas and his leadership abilities, those traits he has hammered into the NFL for the past 12 years should be present and on display. The offense might have lost a QB, but Thomas will take over that defense from here on out and take some of the pressure of the real playmakers like Ware and Brady James who are much better athletes at this point than Thomas.
I also want to add that Brad Johnson is not horrible and he will enjoy a few weeks of some of the best weapons that any QB in the NFL has at their disposal. Brett Favre called Romo and told him to try and play thru the pain…tape it up and lets go…course when Favre called, Romo was recouping in Simpson Valley so its possible he might sit out at least a week…I couldn’t help myself, sorry.
Have I talked at all about St Louis? Do I really need to until they put some real offense on the field? Holt had 1 catch ofr 5 yds last week, I mean throw up.
MB III: He should see a ton of action with Felix out. 100 yds and 2 TD. The Rams give up almost 5 ypc and 9 TD in 5 games.
Felix Jones: Out 2-4 weeks.
Tashard Choice: Don’t sleep on him…he is one (not gonna say it) from being on the field a lot. Dynasty leagues, he is likely not around, redraft leagues, very likely he is around.
Steven Jackson: Will see the ball a lot, no question about it. 100 yds and a score this week for the playmaker, look for some catches OOTB as well.
Final Score: Dallas 28…St Louis 17
San Fran at NY Giants
Overview: The Giants really were a disappointment for many on MNF, but I look for them to rebound nicely at home this weekend. They are no lock down against the run allowing 4 ypc but they also only allow 95 yds a game and just 2 rushing TD on the season. They see a ton of good RB in the NFC East with MB III, Portis, Westy…Gore is great but its nothing they haven’t seen before.
The Niners come in with an a decent run support on defense…yes they give up 125 and 1.2 TD per game but opposition wants to control the clock and keep Martz and his offense on the sidelines. Lok for New York to try and pound the football, shorten the game up, but in all honesty I expect their offense to come out and blow the doors off SF, they needed a wake up call in Cleveland.
Frank Gore: 100/TD seems within his reach. He will be active catching the ball if nothing else.
Brandon Jacobs: What a TD he had in the MNF contest…he will break your arm off if you try and tackle him without a wrap up and a convoy of others from your team. I expect him to do well…70/TD.
Derrick Ward: He looked really good the other night, found all the hole, and exploited them. 50 yards for him.
Ahmad Bradshaw: If the Giants get ahead, he will likely see more action. I like him as a possible sneaky play…just never know if he is going to get any touches.
Final Score: New York 31…San Fran 19
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Overall: The Steelers have had their bye week, and even though I don’t think they are all that good, I do expect them to beat Cinci like a drum on Sunday. Not much to really say or talk about, the Bengals are like 0-6, and they will be like 0-7 after this game.
FWP: I like him plenty as long as he is back and healthy. 100/TD seem very likely from him.
Mewelde Moore: Keep an eye on him, if Parker is iffy, then get him ready off your bench.
Chris Perry: Rumor was circling he might be benched…doesn’t matter as Benson is not a better option really.
Cedric Benson: Bench him
Final Score: Pittsburgh 20…Cincinnati 12 Maybe my “beat like a drum” was a bit much.
San Diego at Buffalo
Overview: The Bolts got some revenge on the Pats this past Sunday, but it still doesn’t change the fact they are allowing 4.4 ypc on the ground…however they also have only given up 1 run of 20+ yards on the season, so they don’t exactly get gashed either. I believe the Bills will try and try to work the ball methodically down the field, and strive to keep San Diego, LT, and River on the sideline…will it work?
The Bills are OK against the run, allowing 4 ypc but they also in 5 games have given up 7 TDs…LT owners will like the sound of that. Buffalo might have been exposed in the Arizona game, but we’ll know for sure on Sunday.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 100yds and a score, bad toe and all.
Darren Sproles: even though he has looked good, and even though LT is hurting, he had about 3 touches in the game against the Pats this past week.
Marshawn Lynch: Has been pretty below average as of late. I am a big fan of his but he needs to start producing a little more consistently. 75 and a TD sounds about right for him this week.
Final Score: San Diego 26…Buffalo 17
Detroit at Houston
Overview: 2 teams that have a combined 1-9 record or something close to that. The 2 teams have allowed a combined 17 TD on the ground thru 5 weeks…UNREAL!!! If these teams had better weapons at RB, you might actually have something to exploit in this game.
Rudi Johnson: He had 17/8 last week and I expect the Lions will keep him out there even though I think Kevin Smith should be getting game reps as he is their future, not Rudi. Look for him to grab about 50-60 yds and a score this week.
Kevin Smith: I like him in flex dynasty leagues, he should see some action in this game.
Steve Slaton : I know owners don’t want to hear this but I felt Slaton did what he should have last week and he really should not see much more than 15 carries a game, he simply isn’t built for it. I do think he will have a nice game this week.
Ahman Green: Will see some action and could be a surprise flex play this week…actually I though he looked terrible in the game on Sunday, but that might have been some rust. Slaton seemed to find holes and Green didn’t look very explosive to me at all.
Final Score: Houston 24…Detroit 17
Cleveland at Washington
Overview: Talk about momentum swings…the Browns knock off the world champs and give them their first loss of the season while Washington managed to allow St Louis to get their 1st win of the season. Look for Portis and the Skins to try and exploit the Browns run defense which is pretty below average and has allowed 7 rushing TD already this season. Cleveland will likely try and build on their momentum and pass the ball on the Washington. Skins have gotten their run defense under control, and the Browns could get frustrated and end up trying to pass their way to victory. I expect this game to be pretty close.
Jamal Lewis: Had a nice game against the Giants, owners better hope he gets another gift TD like last week when Braylon was taken down form behind setting a short field for Jamal. I see just an average day here.
Clinton Portis: No reason the train is going to slow down this week. 100+/TD at least.
Shaun Alexander: No No No…
Final Score: Cleveland 20…Washington 19
Indy at Green Bay
Overview: If a team ever came out of a bye week with a new attitude…cue the 2008 Indianapolis Colts. Manning stormed the building last week, Harrison looked 25 not 35, and the Colts took a team that was #1 on defense in the NFL and simply trashed them. Momentum is clearly with the Colts at the moment. Can they continue that momentum in Lambeau this weekend?
Neither Green Bay or Indy are very good on rush defense, but both teams have had challenges running the football this season, so we’ll see if either of them can actually exploit the other.
Joseph Addai: Going to have ot watch and check the IR this week. Right now, until I see him practice fully I would not be in a hurry to run him out there. Hard for me to imagine that he will get all the carries this week despite a nice match up.
Dominic Rhodes: Again, watch the IR and I will try and update this game later in the week.
Ryan Grant: No reason to not play him this week. He is starting to show signs of life.
Final Score: Indianapolis 34…Green Bay 24
New York Jets at Oakland
Overview: The Jets took care of business at home last week. The Raiders really showed that Kiffin was not the big problem as they played a pathetic game against New Orleans, the new coach, Cable, looks lost. Sorry to the Raider Nation but I’m sort of glad it happened, and I hope it continues. What an terrible front office they have including the owner there in Oakland.
The Raiders actually hold opponents to 3.9 ypc but they also have 8 TD they have yielded in 5 games so the likelihood that Thomas Jones can come out and do well again are pretty high. Meanwhile the Jets are in the top5 of the league with a 2.9 ypc avg on defense, simply amazing.
Anyone ever see the movie Snatch? I think Al Davis actually played Bricktop in that movie.
Thomas Jones: Start him with confidence, has a real shot to score once or twice on Sunday in the Black Hole.
Darren McFadden: He had 8 carries for about 30 yds last week, long of 8, no receptions, just not gonna work for owners…you would think when they were down that he would get the ball OOTB on screens and stuff, but that did not happen…maybe Al Davis is calling the plays. I don’t see him doing well this week but he has more upside than the next guy I will highlight.
Justin Fargas: 10/35 last week, now faces a top3 rush defense, gonna be a long day.
Michael Bush: Back to being the RB3 here.
Final Score: NY Jets 28…Oakland 14
Seattle at Tampa Bay
Overview: Let me sum this up…Seattle has gone on the road and gotten blown out by Buffalo in week 1 and were routed 34-10, then on the road in NY they got blown out 44-6, now they take to a hostile C.I.T.S. to take on the Bucs who just disposed of Carolina 27-3 last week. Did I mention that Seattle will not have Hasselbeck, a group of gimpy WR, and a running game that is far from dominant and facing a very tough defense in the Buccaneers?
Usually I like to play devil’s advocate and give you all a bunch of reasons to go against the grain, but not this week as I just cannot come up with a good reason why Seattle should be able to hang around unless the Bucs just give it away.
Julius Jones/MoMo: Both of them should be on your bench this weekend.
Earnest Graham: The Seahawks are not complete swiss cheese on defense but at the same time they don’t shut it down very well either. If Graham can get 18-20 carries he will rack up 100/TD in this game easy. The problem for owners is that Dunn did very well last week, and Graham/Dunn seem like buddies, neither caring who actually carries the rock, just win win win. Form a fan perspective you love this, as a FF owner you want to pull your hair out.
Warrick Dunn: Bucs should win this game easily so I expect to see him in the game quite often.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 23…Seattle 9
Denver at New England
Overview: I am not sold on Denver but I am sold that the Pats have gotten old on defense, and that their offense is going to struggle a lot. Can they run the football? I’m not sure but they are all over the map from week to week with their running game. Both teams give up a lot of yards on the ground, neither of them should be feared a whole lot.
Michael Pittman: Starting to creep up as a sleeper for 2008. I think he might have nailed down the starting job with his performance last week. I can see him racking up 60-70/TD easily this week.
Sammy Morris: He has a 3.2 ypc avg…one of the worst amongst starters. But Sammy is 31 years old and was always a journeyman so this should not be a surprise. Maroney should have pushed him to the side a long long time ago. Great match up but I’m not 100% sure that Morris and the Pats can exploit this situation.
Kevin Faulk: I’ll be interested to see why people need to start him.
LaMont Jordan: If he could stay healthy, I think he would be starting. But he isn’t healthy so leave him alone for now.
Laurence Maroney: Seems to be suffering from a shoulder injury.
Final Score: Denver 27…New England 21
Good Luck this weekend everyone!!!
Minnesota at Chicago
Overview: Battle for 1st place in the NFC North is on the line, and I think that is a very important piece of the equation here. The Bears have let some games slip away form them. They lost to Car 20-17, TB 27-24…they really should have won that game…and now they lose to ATL 22-20 when they had the lead with 11 seconds left and actually kicking off…they have to either be really steaming or a team that is on pins and needles.
The Vikings come into this game with a lot less behind their 3-3 record. They almost lost to the lowly Detroit Lions narrowly escaping with a 12-10 win. I still think they are the worst coached team in the NFL right now, lots of talent but just can’t seem to harness it, and they still have QB issues even with TJax out of the lineup.
The Bears are top5 very tough to run on with a 3.5 ypc avg, good for top10, almost top5, and they have allowed 4 rushing TD in 6 games. Peterson will have his work cut out for him but he has had some very big games in his young career against the very best rush defenses, so there really is not any hesitation to play him this week. The Vikings are allowing only 3.0 ypc but have managed to yield 6 rushing TDs so far, sort of an odd stat, but only 73 yds a game, far below the league average of around 115-120 a game. Forte will not have a strong day on theg round but the Bears have been smart in getting him the ball OOTB if need be and this week will not change any of that.
Adrian Peterson: 80/TD
Chester Taylor: Bench
Matt Forte: 100 total yds with some obviously coming thru the air.
Final Score: Chicago 16…Minnesota 13
Tennessee at Kansas City
Overview: The Titans were off last week and remained undefeated, haha. This week they travel to KC and I gotta be honest, I cannot see how the Chiefs pull this out of their bag of tricks. I mean they were ready to launch Gonzo, LJ if anyone would take him, they seem to be on a firesale of sorts even if they didn’t find any takers or decided to not go that route. I cannot imagine there is any unity in the locker room and I also feel herm will lose the team all together over the next couple weeks and have some sort of media meltdown that will be the beginning of ole Herm, Mr. Clock Manager, being shown the door. Does it matter that KC is abou the worst in the NFL against the run and the Titans love to run the football with White and Johnson?
Larry Johnson: 70/TD…the Titans do give up about a 100 yds and a TD each week. And the reason is their secondary has been lights out allowing about 170 a week, and they have 10 Interceptions vs 1 TD allowed in 5 games…HOLY SPIT!!! A 52 QB rating against them too…so the Chiefs have to run the ball, they have no choice…but they won’t come close to winnng this game.
Chris Johnson : 100/TD…should feast and I expect him to hit a long run in this game because the Chiefs have allowed a run of over 20+ yds 11 times already this season…imagine Johnson when he gets loose in this game.
LenDale White: I like him in this game, especially once the Titans get the lead in this game. I would not sell him short, at least 50-60 yds and a TD seems likely to me. This is a White type of game where they will run down the Chiefs throat all day long.
Final Score: Tennessee 27…Kansas City 10
New Orleans at Carolina
Overview: The Saints have managed to climb back into it and are only 1 game back of TB, CAR, and ATL who have all managed to 4-2 so far. Carolina was blown out in TB last week, almost looked like they didn’t even get off the bus. I want to highlight a couple POV in this game.
The Saints are actually below the league avg allowing just a little over 100 yds a game on the ground, nothing too special but you figure they could keep the Panthers in check…WRONG!!! And this is where stats are really misleading at times. We look a little closer and we see that they are actually giving up 4.4 ypc which is not very good at all. So why are they not giving up more yds per game you ask? Because teams feel like they need to throw the ball to keep pace with their prolific offense and thus they tend to abandon the run…something I doubt the Panthers will do this week. The Bucs just had their way on Sunday, jumped out to a lead, and then tried to keep Smith in check as much as possible, and it worked. I believe the outcome in this game will be much different.
Reggie Bush: He will get his, no doubt about it, but I expect him to get bottled up running the football. I watched Warrick Dunn run run run last week but I think Carolina is better than what they showed. Carolina actually allows close to the same yds per game as NO on the ground but the difference is they only yield 3.8 ypc and they also don’t allow very many TDs…only 2 in 6 games or a 1 in 3 chance for Bush ot see the end zone. I’ll give him his 100 yds because of the catches and whatnot but I don’t see him scoring a lot on Sunday.
Deuce McAllister: Bench this week.
DeAngelo Williams: Very up and down but I see him doing well this week and knocking in somewhere around 75-100 total yds. I am going to give the TD over to JStew this however.
JStew: 60/TD, will see some short field at times and I expect him to help Carolina close this game out when they get ahead, control the clock, shorten the game, and pull out a much needed rebound win.
Final Score: Carolina 24…New Orleans 20
Baltimore at Miami
Overview: Talk about getting kicked in the almighty jewels last week, OMG did that hurt as a Dolphins Fan. Anytime Miami sees a team with a big dominant WR such as Fitz, AJ, they are going to have problems, no one on that team can hang with those guys even slightly. The Ravens have none of that and just got lit up by Indy last week. We’ll get to the Colts in a few.
The Ravens are allowing a league low 2.8 ypc and 1 TD on the season. Miami allows only 3.5 ypc and about 1 TD every other game. When you thow in limited passing games form each side, this spells a low scoring affair IMO…real low.
I think Miami will shut down the run for Baltimore, Flacco will struggle, and this game will be low scoring as Miami does not have anything that Indy has in the passing game. The local media down here thinks Miami will handle their business on Sunday, but the MOP is not nearly as confident in the Fish and I don’t assume they will beat anyone, I actually expected them to lose to the Texans last week too.
Willis McGahee: He is coming home and will likely want to make a decent showing. I expect him to scratch and claw for 60-70 yds in this one. Maybe no TD though.
LeMac: Not this week
Ronnie Brown: Not what owners would like but at best he manages 75 yds. I just don’t see a lot of points for him, Wildcat or not.
Ricky Williams: Not this week.
Final Score: Miami 10…Baltimore 9, Penny is the difference in this game.
Dallas at St Louis
Overview: People that have a big stake in Dallas just had their heart jump into their throats over the weekend. Dallas lost Romo, Felix Jones, their Punter, and Adam “Pacman” Jones all in the same week…they might have to go with the rookie from USF, Jenkins, as one of the starting CB. They also traded their 1st, 3rd, and 6th to get Roy Williams and a 7th in return. I understand the trade, but this team is all over the map.
St Louis comes in after a big win in DC, but reall they had the game gift wrapped to them in a lot of ways…Bulger didn’t even manage 100 yds passing IIRC…just pathetic. I do think they will have a little more success on offense this week…but I also think there is one sane person on defense for Dallas that is going to get those guys rallied, focused, and if there was ever a time to lean on Zach Thomas and his leadership abilities, those traits he has hammered into the NFL for the past 12 years should be present and on display. The offense might have lost a QB, but Thomas will take over that defense from here on out and take some of the pressure of the real playmakers like Ware and Brady James who are much better athletes at this point than Thomas.
I also want to add that Brad Johnson is not horrible and he will enjoy a few weeks of some of the best weapons that any QB in the NFL has at their disposal. Brett Favre called Romo and told him to try and play thru the pain…tape it up and lets go…course when Favre called, Romo was recouping in Simpson Valley so its possible he might sit out at least a week…I couldn’t help myself, sorry.
Have I talked at all about St Louis? Do I really need to until they put some real offense on the field? Holt had 1 catch ofr 5 yds last week, I mean throw up.
MB III: He should see a ton of action with Felix out. 100 yds and 2 TD. The Rams give up almost 5 ypc and 9 TD in 5 games.
Felix Jones: Out 2-4 weeks.
Tashard Choice: Don’t sleep on him…he is one (not gonna say it) from being on the field a lot. Dynasty leagues, he is likely not around, redraft leagues, very likely he is around.
Steven Jackson: Will see the ball a lot, no question about it. 100 yds and a score this week for the playmaker, look for some catches OOTB as well.
Final Score: Dallas 28…St Louis 17
San Fran at NY Giants
Overview: The Giants really were a disappointment for many on MNF, but I look for them to rebound nicely at home this weekend. They are no lock down against the run allowing 4 ypc but they also only allow 95 yds a game and just 2 rushing TD on the season. They see a ton of good RB in the NFC East with MB III, Portis, Westy…Gore is great but its nothing they haven’t seen before.
The Niners come in with an a decent run support on defense…yes they give up 125 and 1.2 TD per game but opposition wants to control the clock and keep Martz and his offense on the sidelines. Lok for New York to try and pound the football, shorten the game up, but in all honesty I expect their offense to come out and blow the doors off SF, they needed a wake up call in Cleveland.
Frank Gore: 100/TD seems within his reach. He will be active catching the ball if nothing else.
Brandon Jacobs: What a TD he had in the MNF contest…he will break your arm off if you try and tackle him without a wrap up and a convoy of others from your team. I expect him to do well…70/TD.
Derrick Ward: He looked really good the other night, found all the hole, and exploited them. 50 yards for him.
Ahmad Bradshaw: If the Giants get ahead, he will likely see more action. I like him as a possible sneaky play…just never know if he is going to get any touches.
Final Score: New York 31…San Fran 19
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Overall: The Steelers have had their bye week, and even though I don’t think they are all that good, I do expect them to beat Cinci like a drum on Sunday. Not much to really say or talk about, the Bengals are like 0-6, and they will be like 0-7 after this game.
FWP: I like him plenty as long as he is back and healthy. 100/TD seem very likely from him.
Mewelde Moore: Keep an eye on him, if Parker is iffy, then get him ready off your bench.
Chris Perry: Rumor was circling he might be benched…doesn’t matter as Benson is not a better option really.
Cedric Benson: Bench him
Final Score: Pittsburgh 20…Cincinnati 12 Maybe my “beat like a drum” was a bit much.
San Diego at Buffalo
Overview: The Bolts got some revenge on the Pats this past Sunday, but it still doesn’t change the fact they are allowing 4.4 ypc on the ground…however they also have only given up 1 run of 20+ yards on the season, so they don’t exactly get gashed either. I believe the Bills will try and try to work the ball methodically down the field, and strive to keep San Diego, LT, and River on the sideline…will it work?
The Bills are OK against the run, allowing 4 ypc but they also in 5 games have given up 7 TDs…LT owners will like the sound of that. Buffalo might have been exposed in the Arizona game, but we’ll know for sure on Sunday.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 100yds and a score, bad toe and all.
Darren Sproles: even though he has looked good, and even though LT is hurting, he had about 3 touches in the game against the Pats this past week.
Marshawn Lynch: Has been pretty below average as of late. I am a big fan of his but he needs to start producing a little more consistently. 75 and a TD sounds about right for him this week.
Final Score: San Diego 26…Buffalo 17
Detroit at Houston
Overview: 2 teams that have a combined 1-9 record or something close to that. The 2 teams have allowed a combined 17 TD on the ground thru 5 weeks…UNREAL!!! If these teams had better weapons at RB, you might actually have something to exploit in this game.
Rudi Johnson: He had 17/8 last week and I expect the Lions will keep him out there even though I think Kevin Smith should be getting game reps as he is their future, not Rudi. Look for him to grab about 50-60 yds and a score this week.
Kevin Smith: I like him in flex dynasty leagues, he should see some action in this game.
Steve Slaton : I know owners don’t want to hear this but I felt Slaton did what he should have last week and he really should not see much more than 15 carries a game, he simply isn’t built for it. I do think he will have a nice game this week.
Ahman Green: Will see some action and could be a surprise flex play this week…actually I though he looked terrible in the game on Sunday, but that might have been some rust. Slaton seemed to find holes and Green didn’t look very explosive to me at all.
Final Score: Houston 24…Detroit 17
Cleveland at Washington
Overview: Talk about momentum swings…the Browns knock off the world champs and give them their first loss of the season while Washington managed to allow St Louis to get their 1st win of the season. Look for Portis and the Skins to try and exploit the Browns run defense which is pretty below average and has allowed 7 rushing TD already this season. Cleveland will likely try and build on their momentum and pass the ball on the Washington. Skins have gotten their run defense under control, and the Browns could get frustrated and end up trying to pass their way to victory. I expect this game to be pretty close.
Jamal Lewis: Had a nice game against the Giants, owners better hope he gets another gift TD like last week when Braylon was taken down form behind setting a short field for Jamal. I see just an average day here.
Clinton Portis: No reason the train is going to slow down this week. 100+/TD at least.
Shaun Alexander: No No No…
Final Score: Cleveland 20…Washington 19
Indy at Green Bay
Overview: If a team ever came out of a bye week with a new attitude…cue the 2008 Indianapolis Colts. Manning stormed the building last week, Harrison looked 25 not 35, and the Colts took a team that was #1 on defense in the NFL and simply trashed them. Momentum is clearly with the Colts at the moment. Can they continue that momentum in Lambeau this weekend?
Neither Green Bay or Indy are very good on rush defense, but both teams have had challenges running the football this season, so we’ll see if either of them can actually exploit the other.
Joseph Addai: Going to have ot watch and check the IR this week. Right now, until I see him practice fully I would not be in a hurry to run him out there. Hard for me to imagine that he will get all the carries this week despite a nice match up.
Dominic Rhodes: Again, watch the IR and I will try and update this game later in the week.
Ryan Grant: No reason to not play him this week. He is starting to show signs of life.
Final Score: Indianapolis 34…Green Bay 24
New York Jets at Oakland
Overview: The Jets took care of business at home last week. The Raiders really showed that Kiffin was not the big problem as they played a pathetic game against New Orleans, the new coach, Cable, looks lost. Sorry to the Raider Nation but I’m sort of glad it happened, and I hope it continues. What an terrible front office they have including the owner there in Oakland.
The Raiders actually hold opponents to 3.9 ypc but they also have 8 TD they have yielded in 5 games so the likelihood that Thomas Jones can come out and do well again are pretty high. Meanwhile the Jets are in the top5 of the league with a 2.9 ypc avg on defense, simply amazing.
Anyone ever see the movie Snatch? I think Al Davis actually played Bricktop in that movie.
Thomas Jones: Start him with confidence, has a real shot to score once or twice on Sunday in the Black Hole.
Darren McFadden: He had 8 carries for about 30 yds last week, long of 8, no receptions, just not gonna work for owners…you would think when they were down that he would get the ball OOTB on screens and stuff, but that did not happen…maybe Al Davis is calling the plays. I don’t see him doing well this week but he has more upside than the next guy I will highlight.
Justin Fargas: 10/35 last week, now faces a top3 rush defense, gonna be a long day.
Michael Bush: Back to being the RB3 here.
Final Score: NY Jets 28…Oakland 14
Seattle at Tampa Bay
Overview: Let me sum this up…Seattle has gone on the road and gotten blown out by Buffalo in week 1 and were routed 34-10, then on the road in NY they got blown out 44-6, now they take to a hostile C.I.T.S. to take on the Bucs who just disposed of Carolina 27-3 last week. Did I mention that Seattle will not have Hasselbeck, a group of gimpy WR, and a running game that is far from dominant and facing a very tough defense in the Buccaneers?
Usually I like to play devil’s advocate and give you all a bunch of reasons to go against the grain, but not this week as I just cannot come up with a good reason why Seattle should be able to hang around unless the Bucs just give it away.
Julius Jones/MoMo: Both of them should be on your bench this weekend.
Earnest Graham: The Seahawks are not complete swiss cheese on defense but at the same time they don’t shut it down very well either. If Graham can get 18-20 carries he will rack up 100/TD in this game easy. The problem for owners is that Dunn did very well last week, and Graham/Dunn seem like buddies, neither caring who actually carries the rock, just win win win. Form a fan perspective you love this, as a FF owner you want to pull your hair out.
Warrick Dunn: Bucs should win this game easily so I expect to see him in the game quite often.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 23…Seattle 9
Denver at New England
Overview: I am not sold on Denver but I am sold that the Pats have gotten old on defense, and that their offense is going to struggle a lot. Can they run the football? I’m not sure but they are all over the map from week to week with their running game. Both teams give up a lot of yards on the ground, neither of them should be feared a whole lot.
Michael Pittman: Starting to creep up as a sleeper for 2008. I think he might have nailed down the starting job with his performance last week. I can see him racking up 60-70/TD easily this week.
Sammy Morris: He has a 3.2 ypc avg…one of the worst amongst starters. But Sammy is 31 years old and was always a journeyman so this should not be a surprise. Maroney should have pushed him to the side a long long time ago. Great match up but I’m not 100% sure that Morris and the Pats can exploit this situation.
Kevin Faulk: I’ll be interested to see why people need to start him.
LaMont Jordan: If he could stay healthy, I think he would be starting. But he isn’t healthy so leave him alone for now.
Laurence Maroney: Seems to be suffering from a shoulder injury.
Final Score: Denver 27…New England 21
Good Luck this weekend everyone!!!
thanks once again for your hard work.
(Browns fan)
Same situation here. Anyone want to comment? MOP where you at?
