Travis Etienne, Clemson Tigers
BackCAST Score: +124.2%
RecIndex: +0.33
Similar Historical Prospects: Dalvin Cook, Reggie Bush
Travis Etienne is one of the top-rated running backs in this draft, so it is no surprise to see him top this year's projections. Although his projection falls short of some of the all-time greats, he is still an excellent prospect who is worthy of his draft status.
Etienne's best statistic is his yards per attempt. Etienne averaged 7.22 yards per carry over his college career, which is outstanding. Indeed, only three running backs in BackCAST's database had a better adjusted yards per attempt than Etienne. The metric definitely has some diminishing returns, as the three top running backs in the metric (Melvin Gordon, Darrell Henderson, and Rashaad Penny) have had mixed success. However, more efficient college running backs have succeeded at a greater rate than less efficient ones, so Etienne's success on a per-play basis is a definite plus.
Etienne's size-speed ratio also better than average. The average drafted running back is just over 215 pounds with a 4.54s 40-yard dash. Etienne weighed in at 215 pounds but was fast, running the 40-yard dash in 4.42 seconds.
Etienne's biggest "weakness" is that he did not dominate his backfield like other top running backs prospects in past drafts. Etienne had an AOEPS of +1.8%, which is better than average but not spectacular. Although Etienne was very efficient, Clemson gave several carries to other running backs such as Lyn-J Dixon, Chez Mellusi, Adam Choice, and others during Etienne's career.
Etienne's final plus is that he was strong in the receiving game. Even if Etienne ultimately does not pan out as a pure runner, he will likely add value as a receiver.