JohnnyU
Footballguy
Even though I had my doubts about ETN being a bell cow RB, the Jags had nothing behind Robinson.
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RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dahabi
- Start date
woodstock
Footballguy
Despite my protestations in the other threads, I do think Etienne has to win the job, actually. That's different than being able to step in and catch your footing. Robinson was ready to go right from the jump last year; one thinks Etienne must do the same to win the job. I think Meyer wants competition in camp. He's a rah-rah guy. No better place to rah-rah it than a good old-fashioned professional UDFA vs. first-round battle at running back.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Do you guys hear yourselves? "If" he beats out Robinson?
Blick
Footballguy
No kidding. There is no way Etienne doesn't lead this backfield. Based on how well Robinson did last season, Etienne should feast.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Excuse me, 1000+ yards, 4.5 avg, 7 TDs, 49 receptions 344 yds and 3 TDs isn't chop liver. You think they are going to bench that? I think not. You have to look at the reality of this and ETN going to the Jags hurts both Robinson and ETN for fantasy, but helps the Jags, because they didn't have much behind Robinson.
Blick
Footballguy
So you think Etienne and Robinson are similar talents? Obviously Robinson isn't going away. Its going to be a shared backfield. I just don't see how Etienne doesn't get the bigger share.
jm192
Footballguy
I just don’t think the coaching staff sees it that way. RB’s are a dime a dozen in the NFL. We’ve seen fewer and fewer RB’s go in the 1st round. And yet they took one here, despite having a ton of needs.
I don’t think they’re drafting for RB depth. I don’t think they see Robinson as a really good player. I don’t think they see him as unbenchable. You just don’t use that kind of draft capital on a RB and not use the heck out of him.
Maybe they want to ease ETN in and Robinson gets more work early. I certainly don’t think Robinson just goes away. He’ll have a role. He’s not chopped liver. But I think this pick sends a big message as to how the new regime sees Robinson.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
....or maybe they see a specific role for ETN. This isn't a situation that is bell cow or the bench. Yes, I see them using ETN a lot, but that doesn't mean they won't use Robinson, especially on early downs and at the goal line. Anyone thinking this is going to be a 70/30 split for ETN need to take off the rose colored glasses and look at the reality of this.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
We have some delusional Robinson owners in here. ETN wasn't drafted in the first to spell Robinson. I'm also pretty sure the new franchise QB is going to make it clear how much he loves playing with his college buddy. In fact I'd say Lawrence may have had a big impact on this selection. Glad I don't own Robinson anywhere. He just turned into Trent Richardson (year 2) overnight.
jm192
Footballguy
I’m not calling you crazy or anything, I find myself agreeing with a ton of your posts.
I can’t see Jacksonville’s new coaching staff spending a 1st round pick on a RB for specific role. There are other solid RB’s that they could have taken later for that kind of utilization.
Why not go Carter/Gainwell later?
I don’t think Robinson goes away. It could be a split for part of this season. But I think the 1st round RB is very much “the plan.”
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woodstock
Footballguy
I'm just hedging against Etienne coming into the pros and throwing a horrific dud up, á la Trent Richardson. I think if Etienne flashes in camp, it's over.
Robinson's not awful. He also didn't just get drafted in the first round. We all, except really for one or two guys, see that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree with the bolded but I also felt there was a pretty good chance ETN was going to be in a RBBC type situation so this doesn't move him down all that much for me - I've always been a lot less high on Robinson than most people here. I just didn't see anything other than a decent grinder type RB that saw massive volume. He should surely still see a decent workload but he went from a potential RB1 to a fantasy RB3.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Guys like Robinson get supplanted on the regular.
CJ Anderson was coming off a 1k year when he went to Carolina - and was obliterated by year 2 Christian McCaffrey.
Chester Taylor went for 1200 yards and 42 receptions - and was obliterated by rookie Adrian Peterson.
Even pretty good Mark Ingram welcomed Kamara to the backfield in 2017 and both had great years - but by the next year was being shown the door.
CJ Anderson was coming off a 1k year when he went to Carolina - and was obliterated by year 2 Christian McCaffrey.
Chester Taylor went for 1200 yards and 42 receptions - and was obliterated by rookie Adrian Peterson.
Even pretty good Mark Ingram welcomed Kamara to the backfield in 2017 and both had great years - but by the next year was being shown the door.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No doubt this hurts Robinson the most, but it isn't great for ETN either (short term). I'm a big believer in draft capital, so there is that, but Robinson had a great year for someone that went undrafted. Worst case scenario for ETN is being used primarily in passing situations. I suppose this could end up being a 70/30 split for ETN because of draft capital, but perhaps the Jags have a specific role in mind for ETN, we don't know.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Lets just get this out there and not sugar coat it. Absurd pick for a 1-15 team to take a RB in the first round. They own the 33rd pick so they will get a great value but a 1st round RB?
The reason Robinson blew up is because the Jags took Leonard Fournette with the 4th pick of the 2017 draft and didn't resign him. Lesson NOT-learned.
I can see Pittsburgh taking Najee since they are a 11-5 playoff team in dire need of a RB and don't have a 1,000 yard rusher on the team but Jacksonville?
You don't build a team from the RB position.
Come on, this was a terrible TERRIBLE pick because of the position before considering need.
The reason Robinson blew up is because the Jags took Leonard Fournette with the 4th pick of the 2017 draft and didn't resign him. Lesson NOT-learned.
I can see Pittsburgh taking Najee since they are a 11-5 playoff team in dire need of a RB and don't have a 1,000 yard rusher on the team but Jacksonville?
You don't build a team from the RB position.
Come on, this was a terrible TERRIBLE pick because of the position before considering need.
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jm192
Footballguy
We don’t know if the tv will come on when we press the power button, but from previous experience, it’s likely.
A team doesnt draft a RB in the 1st because they have a specific role. Jacksonville does not have the luxury of taking a COP/3rd down back in the 1st.
Pwingles
Footballguy
This is a solid point but J Rob also had literally 99% of the volume or something crazy like that. This muddys the water a ton for both in terms of opportunities they might get. If they are both really efficient they could be contributors to your fantasy team, but their value just dropped a lot from any ideal scenario
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Could be a Marion Barber/Felix Jones situation when Barber was a 1000 yd RB and the Cowboys drafted Felix Jones.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
They had Hyde, who is nothing special, but a competent backup. Other than QB, C and LB, there wasn't a position the Jags needed less than a RB.
Its especially weird to me, because no team should have appreciated the RB's don't matter idea, more than the team that just got a pro bowl year from the undrafted rookie who has several cheap years left.
Great point. Its like Khalil Mack trade a bit, where on paper the draft picks should be the winning side, but if this is how they were spent, then never mind.
It was true to a study that showed when teams have multiple 1sts, they tend to be a little more bold with the 2nd one, like they are playing with house money so to speak.
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https://twitter.com/heathcummingssr/status/1387972916147638273?s=21Heath Cummings @heathcummingssr
Travis Etienne initial projection for Jaguars
757 rush yards, 5 TD
374 receiving yards, 3 TD
RB25 in PPR projections
RB21 in Dynasty
James Robinson
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
ETN is obviously the odds on favorite to lead the backfield sooner rather than later, but the certainty people have in it is probably over the top. We FFers sure do have short memories.
When the Seahawks drafted Rashaad Penny at roughly the same spot in the draft Chris Carson hadn't done half as much as what JRob has done, AND Carson was coming off a major injury, AND the Seahawks were adamant that Rashaad Penny was their stud 3-down back going forward.
Carson ran for 1150 yards and 9 TDs that year while Penny spelled him
ETN was drafted in roughly the same spot in the draft as Penny, the incumbent JRob is 100% healthy, and the coaching staff has already said ETN will be a 3rd down back with JRob leading the way on early downs.
I don't buy what Urban is saying, and I am targeting ETN if anyone is selling at a discount, but we've seen plenty of times before where the incumbent surprisingly held onto the lead role for another year or two and in many of those circumstances the writing was a lot less on the wall than it is here.
When the Seahawks drafted Rashaad Penny at roughly the same spot in the draft Chris Carson hadn't done half as much as what JRob has done, AND Carson was coming off a major injury, AND the Seahawks were adamant that Rashaad Penny was their stud 3-down back going forward.
Carson ran for 1150 yards and 9 TDs that year while Penny spelled him
ETN was drafted in roughly the same spot in the draft as Penny, the incumbent JRob is 100% healthy, and the coaching staff has already said ETN will be a 3rd down back with JRob leading the way on early downs.
I don't buy what Urban is saying, and I am targeting ETN if anyone is selling at a discount, but we've seen plenty of times before where the incumbent surprisingly held onto the lead role for another year or two and in many of those circumstances the writing was a lot less on the wall than it is here.
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Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Big difference between those RBs and James Robinson. JR still has 2 yrs left on his contract..and CJ anderson had only like a 4.0 yd avg.Andy Dufresne said:
IMO, I think ETN is just a fall back option just in case James Robinson falls below a 4.0 yd avg.
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jm192
Footballguy
People on Twitter keep talking about ETN playing the Harvin Role in this offense and how they wanted Toney for it.
I think Toney would have been used similarly to Harvin had they gotten him. But just because that's your plan for Toney, are they going to make ETN a WR that they occasionally use as a running back? That doesn't make sense to me.
Harvin's career high in touches was 139. ETN is going to get more than that. I'm sure they'll want to get him out in space. Alvin Kamara is probably a better comparison for how he'll be used. Not saying he's Kamara.
ETN will be the most heavily utilized back, and not some guy with "a role." Robinson won't shrivel up and die. But he won't be anywhere near what he was this past year. As time goes on, it will become more lopsided for ETN, IMO.
I think Toney would have been used similarly to Harvin had they gotten him. But just because that's your plan for Toney, are they going to make ETN a WR that they occasionally use as a running back? That doesn't make sense to me.
Harvin's career high in touches was 139. ETN is going to get more than that. I'm sure they'll want to get him out in space. Alvin Kamara is probably a better comparison for how he'll be used. Not saying he's Kamara.
ETN will be the most heavily utilized back, and not some guy with "a role." Robinson won't shrivel up and die. But he won't be anywhere near what he was this past year. As time goes on, it will become more lopsided for ETN, IMO.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Having some mid-round picks, I hope they keep talking like this so people pass on him early.
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There is also a big difference between Adrian Peterson/CMC and ETN. I really don't seem him in that type of class.
The other thing I haven't seen mentioned on this board since the pick was that the biggest thing the new Jax staff said they needed from the backfield was explosiveness which matches the weakness of Robinson. I think this pick fits perfectly with what the coaches speak was before the draft. I see them using both of these guys together as they are really complimentary to each other based on strengths/weaknesses. It should be great for the Jags but terrible for FF. That being said, it was still a terrible pick for what that team really needs.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
People said nearly the exact same things about CMC as they are Etienne. "Too early", "A complimentary back"...
It's amazing that people seem to think less of him after a year of getting better at the position.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I'm not sure if people think Spiller's lack of success in the NFL coming out of Clemson is why they are down on Etienne but I don't think those are good comps anyway. I think as long as he's used correctly (and it sure sounds like they will, focusing on his speed, pass catching ability) he's going to be a very good FF player right out of the gate.
I was higher on CMC than most so I wasn't one of those guys that had CMC as too early or a complimentary back. I just don't see ETN in that same caliber of player. I think he can be productive and I think Robinson is really good at what he does (between tackles, initial burst to gain positive yardage, and power enough to break first tackles) which is a nice compliment to ETN as I don't think he is as good at those things but is better in space and long speed. I just don't think a 1st rounder was necessary for this team.
Now all that being said, the totally new coaching staff gives pause about Robinson although from watching him all last year (I had him most of the year until I traded him for Taylor right before Taylor took off) I think Robinson is a lot better of an NFL RB than he is given credit for. Not flashy but good at what he does.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I seriously don't know how some of you guys draft anybody.
Etienne isn't anywhere near the prospect CMC was. Etienne has a lot more warts, and landed in a worse situation.
I don't hate Etienne, I just think the Jags erred in spending a 1st at a less valuable position, that they didn't need. I think Robinson will probably be seeing at least 45% of the work. This might be a dreaded RBBC for years to come.
I'd probably rank Etienne as the 1.6 rookie pick right now. I'd rather have him than Robinson, but I'm a lot less excited about him(both of them really) than I was before the draft.
I don't hate Etienne, I just think the Jags erred in spending a 1st at a less valuable position, that they didn't need. I think Robinson will probably be seeing at least 45% of the work. This might be a dreaded RBBC for years to come.
I'd probably rank Etienne as the 1.6 rookie pick right now. I'd rather have him than Robinson, but I'm a lot less excited about him(both of them really) than I was before the draft.
Foosball God
Foos
Remember when Chris Carson got shown the door when 1st round RB Penny showed up?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have had some time to think about this and despite Harris being selected one pick higher than ETN and Harris going to the Steelers who have a long track record if not using RBBC and the Jaguars with no track record to speak of with new coaches I still settle on who I think is the best player and that is ETN.
I've heard this narrative a lot.
The issue(s) with Penny started before he even set foot on the football field.
He had put on 25 lbs between the NFL draft and training camp. He showed up to TC balloooned up and out of shape.
That played a big part in his under performing, opening the door for Carson to out perform him.
He eventually got his weight down mid to end of season of his rookie year and began to show some of that explosiveness, tackle breaking ability and skill that got him drafted (seemingly close to at least making the backfield a time share if not outright taking control) and then went on to tear his ACL.
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Foosball God
Foos
The point is that it isn't a forgone conclusion. Maybe Etienne comes in and blows the doors off, but writing off a guy that ran for over 1000 yards on that team seems a little short sighted.
Blick
Footballguy
Etienne was never going to be a workhorse, at least I didn't think so. He's in a spot where he doesn't have to be. I just can't see a world where is doesn't get 10-12 touches a game with most of those in space on receptions or outside runs. Short yardage TDs may not be there, but receptions should be.
Foosball God
Foos
He'll definitely get touches, and maybe a lot if he's really good. JAX would be pretty foolish to immediately throw Robinson to the side though.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
so true, pass on this guy at your own risk.Andy Dufresne said:
Im all over him.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, the Jax staff said that, and we actually did cover that in the Robinson thread or another thread. A bunch of us actually had a long discussion about what the coaches said and how it would impact their drafting. menobrown and I said the only back we could see them going that would really put a dent in Robinson in the early rounds (because Harris and Williams aren't speed guys) was Etienne at 25 or 33, and sure enough, it came to fruition.Gally said:
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
We can always find exceptions to rules but teams usually don't draft RBs in the 1st without the intention of getting them the ball early and often. Also, if ETN is truly the talent his college career makes him appear to be, he's going to force his way onto the field like Kamara did as a rookie.Foosball God said:
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