RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)

[Kleck.]

NFL.com says McGahee had 11 starts. Which is correct.

Travis Henry started week 7 at Baltimore.

 

[Joe T]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

Since when are 1400+ rushing seasons disturbing?

I don't have him at 1400.How many RB's played 16 games last year?

So to put him at 1400 you have to have him at 16 games played and 352 carries? That is a huge reach. Only 3 guys carried the ball that many times last season.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Interesting point. I agree that McGahee put up 1300 TOTAL yards in 15 games played with only 12 of those as the starter which I still find unimpressive. Yet the 13 TD's is impressive. But unless you are predicting him to be another Shaun Alexander, you can't draft him number five.There are so many differences in those two guys and their situations, I'm lost as to where to begin.

I agree, SA has the better Oline and wont have a rookie QB leading the offense. There is also another difference that i noticed last year, Mcgahee is the more talented runner. Before we go any fiurther, i would like to point out, i dont think Mcgahee is a lock for anything. It would not suprise me if he finished outside the top 10. However, i can say the exact same thing about every other RB(except Tomlinson) I prefer not to pick 2-5 in a redraft, but if i did, Mcgahee would be just as good a pick as any others i would consider there.

 

[David Yudkin]

Without spilling the beans on an article I am working on, the Bills were a somewhat rare breed last year as a whole. The team managed to rank 7th in total points scored and just 24th in offensive yardage. They are only one of 24 teams since 1978 to rank Top 10 in points scored while finishing the year ranked 10 or more spots LOWER in yardage.Cutting to the chase and leaving out the romance, the (close to) bottom line on this one is that a large majority of teams that did this fell back in scoring a fair amount the following season (I'm working on the math, so I don't have an exact number right now in terms of by what %).What I can say is that the previous teams went from an average points scored ranking of 6.7 to a points scored ranking of 12 the following year. (Three quarters of the teams ranked lower).The bottom line that I am rapdily approaching is that the Bills are most likely destined to score fewer points next year, and with Losman taking over, I don't think that will help any.With fewer points to be scored, Willis may not have as many TDs to score to begin with.

 

[Burning Sensation]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?

I think Mcgahee is in the top 5 more because the lack of any true top 5 backs. With the exception of Tomlinson, who else could you say is a lock to have a btter year than Mcgahee? Alexander or Holmes maybe, but they have ? that make me a bit nervous about spending a top 5 pick on them.

He's been a top 5 lock the last 4 years,

He has? 3 years ago i heard the exact same tings about him as i am hearing now about Mcgahee. I think his ADP last year was just outside the top 5.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Without spilling the beans on an article I am working on, the Bills were a somewhat rare breed last year as a whole. The team managed to rank 7th in total points scored and just 24th in offensive yardage.

Does that total points scored include defense and special teams scores?

 

[Snotbubbles]

For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25

 

[Burning Sensation]

For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25

hmm, thanks...whats your point?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Well considering there isn't a huge support for McGahee in this thread, it seems that his top 5 ranking is coming from somewhere else.

 

[David Yudkin]

Without spilling the beans on an article I am working on, the Bills were a somewhat rare breed last year as a whole.  The team managed to rank 7th in total points scored and just 24th in offensive yardage. 

Does that total points scored include defense and special teams scores?

The basic rankings include all total points by whatever means. Again, as I am not done yet I don't have all the answers, but I am in the process of filtering out the defensive and special teams scoring. So when I am all done, I hope to have only offensive numbers compared to offensive numbers.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Edge is getting the same amount of goalline carries.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25

I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.

 

[Kleck.]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?

I think Mcgahee is in the top 5 more because the lack of any true top 5 backs. With the exception of Tomlinson, who else could you say is a lock to have a btter year than Mcgahee? Alexander or Holmes maybe, but they have ? that make me a bit nervous about spending a top 5 pick on them.

He's been a top 5 lock the last 4 years,

He has? 3 years ago i heard the exact same tings about him as i am hearing now about Mcgahee. I think his ADP last year was just outside the top 5.

Last year Alexander was the concensus #5, and was the concensus #8 in 2003. In 2002 he did go at #2 in my No Mercy league. I'm not sure what the concensus was that year but I do believe it was top 5, so McGahee (2005) does remind me a bit of Alexander (2002) as well.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Edge was over 1500 yards, had 12 total td's and had 50+ catches, and plays in a dynamite offense. I'll take edge over willis in any non-dynasty league. Especially in PPR leagues.

 

[Burning Sensation]

For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25

I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.

Yeah, but what percent of goalline oppurtunities did he get? plus, me point was was that last year, people were complaining all over these boards that Manning was being selfish, and that James was not getting any goalline carries.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Yeah, but what percent of goalline oppurtunities did he get? plus, me point was was that last year, people were complaining all over these boards that Manning was being selfish, and that James was not getting any goalline carries.

Perception and reality are not always the same.

 

[jurb26]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

Since when are 1400+ rushing seasons disturbing?

I don't have him at 1400.How many RB's played 16 games last year?

So to put him at 1400 you have to have him at 16 games played and 352 carries? That is a huge reach. Only 3 guys carried the ball that many times last season.

So you are predicting injuries. Are you doing this for all the RBs or jsut the ones you don't like. What about Holmes, DD, LT, Portis, McAllister, ect. All of these guys may get hurt too and as a matter of fact did last year. Predicting injuries is nearly impossible. Either way, close to 90 yds per game on the ground is in no way bad.

 

[Snotbubbles]

So you are predicting injuries. Are you doing this for all the RBs or jsut the ones you don't like. What about Holmes, DD, LT, Portis, McAllister, ect. All of these guys may get hurt too and as a matter of fact did last year. Predicting injuries is nearly impossible. Either way, close to 90 yds per game on the ground is in no way bad.

You don't factor in injuries?I think Priest Holmes is the #1 back fantasy wise. But if I had the #1 pick, I'd go with LT. Not because I think he'll outscore Holmes. But because I feel more confident he'll be playing for me week 14-16.

 

[Bloom]

With fewer points to be scored, Willis may not have as many TDs to score to begin with.

BINGO!Willis put his numbers up during a winning streak where everything (defense, offense, special teams) was going right for the bills, which allowed them to play ball control football and feed willis 20+ carries a game - and giving him numerous opportunities to punch it in inside the 10.

If Bills are not able to play that kind of football this year, willis's numbers will take a huge hit, because he's just not the kind of back that creates lots of offense on his own.

For this year, I would say he and Corey Dillon have the exact role for their team. Ill take the guy whose team is going to be playing with the lead more often...

 

[Burning Sensation]

Yeah, but what percent of goalline oppurtunities did he get? plus, me point was was that last year, people were complaining all over these boards that Manning was being selfish, and that James was not getting any goalline carries.

Perception and reality are not always the same.

i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.

 

[Kleck.]

How many RB's played 16 games last year?

Played in or started?Technically, McGahee did play 16 games last year. 1 of 9 RB's in the top 30 to do so.Played and started, only 4 in the entire league (Alexander, Martin, Edge, Rudi). Tomlinson would have had he not sat week 17.

 

[Bloom]

mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Since when is that a determining factor of success in future years.

mmm 21x4 = 84he needs an average of like 8 ypc!!!

u consider that real?

my point was that an RB ranked in the top 5 who got the touches willis got should have had at least game with 150 TOTAL yards (includes receiving), not that he should average 150 yards a game.the fact that he didnt tells me that he isnt going to give you big weeks (20+ points) without multiple TD games, which is about the hardest thing to predict for RBs, unless we are talking about priest.

 

[Bloom]

consider this:willis got 10 (!) of his 13 TDs in 4 games that were complete blowouts (ARI, CLE, SEA, SF). He also went over 100 yard rushing in those 4 games.This year the NFC south replaces the west, and cincy replaces cleveland. that means instead of the sieve-like Ds of SF, ARI, and SEA, he'll get CAR, TB, and ATL.do you think the bills are going to be blowing teams out this year? take away the blowout stats and replace them with the kind of stats willis got in close games (a team factor, not individual), and willis is a mere mortal fantasy RB, an RB2 even.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I really think overall the top 5 ranking is not doing anyone justice. His hype reminds me alot of the Barlow hype last year.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.

 

[wilked]

So FBG Game log stats are not accurate??

 

[Thorpe]

As a Bills fan, I'll make the case for Willis.1. Players typically take two full years to recover from injury, even though they may play during the second year. Because McGahee is still a young guy, which helps the healing process, and because he is two years removed from his injury, he can be expected to be a more effective back than last year. I think this is the biggest factor, and the most overlooked factor.2. Not having Henry on the field and in the locker room will make McGahee a better player than last year.3. The QB combination of Losman/Holcomb is better than Bledsoe. Plus, Moulds is now two years removed from his injury, and Evans is not a rookie. I'm not sure what effect this has on McGahee's numbers, but most of his detractors like to bring up the fact that Losman is an unknown (but they never mention how ineffective Bledsoe was last year). 4. The defense and special teams are every bit a strong as last year, which should put the Bilsl in position to blow teams out and run the ball for 4 quarters.5. The Bills do not like to kick long field goals, which gives McGahee a better chance of scoring TDs.6. Mularkey is in his second year, and so is the line coach. I personally feel that continuity in the coaching staff is extremely important in the NFL.7. TE was a disaster for the Bills last year because of several injuries. There was also several injuries on the o line in the first 8 weeks, and Mike Williams had a very slow start to the season. Bills did lose Jennings, but they picked up some free agents to help fill that void.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.

For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.

This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.

agreed, good posting, I wonder why kevin Jones doesn't have the same hype as Willis though. He had a pretty decent season ending stretch , and has a lot of talent around him and his QB situation might be better Garcia/harrington vs Losman?

 

[David Yudkin]

Not to take anything away from McGahee's fine season, but this year he loses:(Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, TD)Arizona 102/9/2St. Louis 100/27/0Seattle 116/24/4San Francisco 102/14/2Instead he gets Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans--the first three should have much better run defenses than the lowly NFC West.He also gets the AFC West this year which had 3 teams with solid numbers against the run (KC, Den, and SD), although they probably ranked well against the run because they were passed on all day long.

 

[Bloom]

Not to take anything away from McGahee's fine season, but this year he loses:

(Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, TD)

Arizona 102/9/2

St. Louis 100/27/0

Seattle 116/24/4

San Francisco 102/14/2

Instead he gets Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans--the first three should have much better run defenses than the lowly NFC West.

He also gets the AFC West this year which had 3 teams with solid numbers against the run (KC, Den, and SD), although they probably ranked well against the run because they were passed on all day long.

as i said in my earlier post - in addition to the sieve like Ds of the NFC west, another one of willis's big games in a blowout was against the team with the league worst rushing defense - cleveland - another team that is not his schedule this year...

 

[Kleck.]

I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.

For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.

This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.

I have over 60 points separating my #1 RB and #5 RB, while my #5 and #12 RB's are only separated by 25 points. Add or subtract just one TD from each and the order would change quite a bit.

 

[Jason Wood]

Not to take anything away from McGahee's fine season, but this year he loses:

(Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, TD)

Arizona 102/9/2

St. Louis 100/27/0

Seattle 116/24/4

San Francisco 102/14/2

Instead he gets Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans--the first three should have much better run defenses than the lowly NFC West.

He also gets the AFC West this year which had 3 teams with solid numbers against the run (KC, Den, and SD), although they probably ranked well against the run because they were passed on all day long.

Hey David,I've noticed a running theme this offseason with you focusing on strength of schedule and who teams faced versus who they face this year. While I understand the reason behind wanting to look at things that way, projecting the effectiveness of league defenses from year N to year N+1 has been shown time and again to be foolhardy, and to actually figure out how any defense is going to do any given week in particular is even less feasible.

Woodrow

 

[Bloom]

I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.

For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.

This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.

I have over 60 points separating my #1 RB and #5 RB, while my #5 and #12 RB's are only separated by 25 points. Add or subtract just one TD from each and the order would change quite a bit.

seems that VBD would dictate that owners sitting in the 5,6,7 slots should be looking at elite QB/WR in the first and take whomever out of that 5-12 range is left in the 2nd (or elite QB/WR if all of em go before you can pick again, whichever was not taken in the first)

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

I have Deuce ranked higher than 5th, so it's moot.#1 Priest

#2 Deuce

#3 Rudi

#4 Edge

#5 Dillon

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

I have Deuce ranked higher than 5th, so it's moot.#1 Priest

#2 Deuce

#3 Rudi

#4 Edge

#5 Dillon

LT 6th? :X

 

[jurb26]

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

I have Deuce ranked higher than 5th, so it's moot.#1 Priest

#2 Deuce

#3 Rudi

#4 Edge

#5 Dillon

Is this how you would draft them or your expect finish?

 

[jurb26]

I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.

For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.

Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.

Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.

This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.

I have over 60 points separating my #1 RB and #5 RB, while my #5 and #12 RB's are only separated by 25 points. Add or subtract just one TD from each and the order would change quite a bit.

People are completly overreacting to Willis be ranked 5th. Yeah, he could be anywhere from 5th to 12th. Its all just personal preference with that group of guys and very little seperates them.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.

McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.

 

[wilked]

i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.

McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.

Exactlylol at 'guaranteed'

 

[Burning Sensation]

i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.

McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.

How many times did Mcgahee score a TD once the Bills were inside the 5? It may have taken him 2-3 carries, but he is force fed the ball inside the 5, James is not.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.

McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.

How many times did Mcgahee score a TD once the Bills were inside the 5? It may have taken him 2-3 carries, but he is force fed the ball inside the 5, James is not.

Well, simple math tells me that unless he got three cracks at it each and every time the Bills were inside the 5, he left them hangin' once or twice.All I'm saying is you might want to be careful with that "guarantee".

That's what I don't get. Everybody has the impression that this guy was just an incredible unstoppable force on the field last year, when the fact is that his super-duper numbers had more to do with his opportunities than his performance. I guess as long as all those opportunities keep falling in his lap, he'll be OK, but I don't want to bank on that with a top 5 pick.

And for those crackpots who will undoubtedly want me to ignore the stats and "just watch him", I have. I didn't see every game or anything, but I saw at least one full game and parts of several others. In none of those games did I see him do anything that a lot of starting RBs couldn't do just as well. Travis Henry for example looked just as good to me in his breakout year (when everyone was calling him a super-stud).

I'm not saying the guys sucks. He doesn't. I'm just saying some of us have put the cart before the horse.

 

[wilked]

Here aer all of McGahee's plays within the opponent's 10 weeks 6-9. As you can see, automatic is far from the right word. 11 times his team was within the 10, and gave him opportunities, twice he converted these chances to points. BTW, I stopped at 9 due to boredom. Week 10 was NE, something tells me it didn't get any betterWeek 63 8:43 10 - 10 1st-and-7 opp 7 rushed for 2 yardsNo TD4 9:21 17 - 13 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards4 8:44 17 - 13 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -1 yardsNo TD4 1:49 20 - 13 1st-and-6 opp 6 rushed for 2 yards4 0:59 20 - 13 3rd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 3 yardsNo TDWeek 73 9:09 3 - 17 1st-and-7 opp 7 rushed for 2 yardsNo TD4 6:54 6 - 17 2nd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for -1 yardsNo TDWeek 81 4:36 3 - 0 1st-and-5 opp 5 rushed for 5 yards TOUCHDOWN3 0:43 17 - 7 2nd-and-6 opp 6 rushed for -2 yardsNo TD4 13:39 24 - 7 1st-and-10 opp 11 rushed for 7 yards4 13:03 24 - 7 2nd-and-3 opp 4 rushed for 1 yards4 12:19 24 - 7 3rd-and-2 opp 3 rushed for 1 yardsNo TD4 8:03 37 - 7 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 1 yards4 7:36 37 - 7 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards4 6:59 37 - 7 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWNWeek 92 0:33 7 - 10 2nd-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 0 yardsNo TD3 9:37 10 - 10 1st-and-6 opp 6 rushed for 1 yardsNo TD4 12:38 17 - 10 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 6 yards4 12:04 17 - 10 2nd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 0 yards4 11:28 17 - 10 3rd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for -8 yardsNo TD

 

[jwvdcw]

For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25

I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.

Well wouldn't you have to also cite Henry's nubmer of carries inside the 5 along with his QB's in order to contrast the two?

 

[jwvdcw]

With fewer points to be scored, Willis may not have as many TDs to score to begin with.

BINGO!Willis put his numbers up during a winning streak where everything (defense, offense, special teams) was going right for the bills, which allowed them to play ball control football and feed willis 20+ carries a game - and giving him numerous opportunities to punch it in inside the 10.

If Bills are not able to play that kind of football this year, willis's numbers will take a huge hit, because he's just not the kind of back that creates lots of offense on his own.

For this year, I would say he and Corey Dillon have the exact role for their team. Ill take the guy whose team is going to be playing with the lead more often...

Thats a pretty bold statement(no pun intended). Willis has as much natural talent as any player(not just RB) in the league- only injuries may hold him back. What makes you say this?

 

[jwvdcw]

mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Since when is that a determining factor of success in future years.

mmm 21x4 = 84he needs an average of like 8 ypc!!!

u consider that real?

my point was that an RB ranked in the top 5 who got the touches willis got should have had at least game with 150 TOTAL yards (includes receiving), not that he should average 150 yards a game.the fact that he didnt tells me that he isnt going to give you big weeks (20+ points) without multiple TD games, which is about the hardest thing to predict for RBs, unless we are talking about priest.

unless you are talking about Priest or Alexander...or T Davis in his prime...or E Smith in his prime...or maybe, just maybe, McGahee.Why are you ignoring this possiblity that McGahee is the next great TD scoring RB? EVerything he did last year points towards that.

 

[DonnyT33]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

From looking at the title, I actaully thought this thread had usefull information or some sort of breaking news in it. Silly me I suppose.

I have him fourth and have nop respect for any guppie that has him 16 and wish i was in leagues with you.

 

[ko-jack]

Willis McGahee is still way overrated.

Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.

I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.

i dont think he is overrated at all.first of all, he is the #9 ranked rb in terms of points, but who cares about points? its about value. the difference between #4 (e.james) and willis is 28 points. the difference between willis (#9) and #18 (tatum bell) is 27 points. in other words, after lt2, alexander, holmes, james, its time for qbs and wrs. (valuewise)

what willis does have is upside. he did what he did last year in a partial season, he scores tds, he plays on a team with a good defense/special teams which means he will have the oppostunity to produce/breakout, and he is even furhter removed from his knee injury.

when it comes to FF, intangibles mean a lot more than rankings and projections.

if you wanna knock willis, tell me that he doesnt catch enough passes, and in point per catch leagues, his value drops, other than that, willis should go ahead of a lot of backs this year.

or

like i have stated numerous times in the past, tell me that he did his damage when the bills were on a 9-3 tear throughot the league, and most of those wins/games were against crap teams

 

[reg]

For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21

Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25

I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.

In 2004, 15 of his 21 rushing attempts came in weeks 1-9. During those weeks he had 15 attempts for 4 yards and 4 td's. Same weeks Manning was 9-12 and 9 TD's. The funny part is is that people (on this board) were complaining about James' lack of touches during the first part of the season (when james had his most GL touches).

 

[Holy Schneikes]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

What about:Tiki

DD

Martin

Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB )

From looking at the title, I actaully thought this thread had usefull information or some sort of breaking news in it. Silly me I suppose.

I have him fourth and have nop respect for any guppie that has him 16 and wish i was in leagues with you.

Only when people can't suppoort an argument do they resort to classless nonsense like this.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Why are you ignoring this possiblity that McGahee is the next great TD scoring RB?

Because that "possibility" is no greater for McGahee than any other back who converted 35% of his goal-line attempts into TDs.

EVerything he did last year points towards that.

No, it really doesn't, and many of us have already explained why it doesn't.