I don't have him at 1400.How many RB's played 16 games last year?Since when are 1400+ rushing seasons disturbing?You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.I love the 150 yd cut off too. You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.
I agree, SA has the better Oline and wont have a rookie QB leading the offense. There is also another difference that i noticed last year, Mcgahee is the more talented runner. Before we go any fiurther, i would like to point out, i dont think Mcgahee is a lock for anything. It would not suprise me if he finished outside the top 10. However, i can say the exact same thing about every other RB(except Tomlinson) I prefer not to pick 2-5 in a redraft, but if i did, Mcgahee would be just as good a pick as any others i would consider there.Interesting point. I agree that McGahee put up 1300 TOTAL yards in 15 games played with only 12 of those as the starter which I still find unimpressive. Yet the 13 TD's is impressive. But unless you are predicting him to be another Shaun Alexander, you can't draft him number five.There are so many differences in those two guys and their situations, I'm lost as to where to begin.Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
He has? 3 years ago i heard the exact same tings about him as i am hearing now about Mcgahee. I think his ADP last year was just outside the top 5.He's been a top 5 lock the last 4 years,I think Mcgahee is in the top 5 more because the lack of any true top 5 backs. With the exception of Tomlinson, who else could you say is a lock to have a btter year than Mcgahee? Alexander or Holmes maybe, but they have ? that make me a bit nervous about spending a top 5 pick on them.McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.Shaun Alexanderagreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.
Does that total points scored include defense and special teams scores?Without spilling the beans on an article I am working on, the Bills were a somewhat rare breed last year as a whole. The team managed to rank 7th in total points scored and just 24th in offensive yardage.
Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
hmm, thanks...whats your point?Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25
The basic rankings include all total points by whatever means. Again, as I am not done yet I don't have all the answers, but I am in the process of filtering out the defensive and special teams scoring. So when I am all done, I hope to have only offensive numbers compared to offensive numbers.Does that total points scored include defense and special teams scores?Without spilling the beans on an article I am working on, the Bills were a somewhat rare breed last year as a whole. The team managed to rank 7th in total points scored and just 24th in offensive yardage.
I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25
Last year Alexander was the concensus #5, and was the concensus #8 in 2003. In 2002 he did go at #2 in my No Mercy league. I'm not sure what the concensus was that year but I do believe it was top 5, so McGahee (2005) does remind me a bit of Alexander (2002) as well.He has? 3 years ago i heard the exact same tings about him as i am hearing now about Mcgahee. I think his ADP last year was just outside the top 5.He's been a top 5 lock the last 4 years,I think Mcgahee is in the top 5 more because the lack of any true top 5 backs. With the exception of Tomlinson, who else could you say is a lock to have a btter year than Mcgahee? Alexander or Holmes maybe, but they have ? that make me a bit nervous about spending a top 5 pick on them.McGahee MAY be a top 5 back, he's certainly got that ability. But my point (and I think it's Joe's point too) is that why is he considered a stone cold lock (his ADP suggests people view him as near can't miss) while other young runners with compelling 2004 campaigns are viewed as being less certain?Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.Shaun Alexanderagreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.
Yeah, but what percent of goalline oppurtunities did he get? plus, me point was was that last year, people were complaining all over these boards that Manning was being selfish, and that James was not getting any goalline carries.I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25
Perception and reality are not always the same.Yeah, but what percent of goalline oppurtunities did he get? plus, me point was was that last year, people were complaining all over these boards that Manning was being selfish, and that James was not getting any goalline carries.
So you are predicting injuries. Are you doing this for all the RBs or jsut the ones you don't like. What about Holmes, DD, LT, Portis, McAllister, ect. All of these guys may get hurt too and as a matter of fact did last year. Predicting injuries is nearly impossible. Either way, close to 90 yds per game on the ground is in no way bad.I don't have him at 1400.How many RB's played 16 games last year?Since when are 1400+ rushing seasons disturbing?You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.I love the 150 yd cut off too. You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.
So to put him at 1400 you have to have him at 16 games played and 352 carries? That is a huge reach. Only 3 guys carried the ball that many times last season.
You don't factor in injuries?I think Priest Holmes is the #1 back fantasy wise. But if I had the #1 pick, I'd go with LT. Not because I think he'll outscore Holmes. But because I feel more confident he'll be playing for me week 14-16.So you are predicting injuries. Are you doing this for all the RBs or jsut the ones you don't like. What about Holmes, DD, LT, Portis, McAllister, ect. All of these guys may get hurt too and as a matter of fact did last year. Predicting injuries is nearly impossible. Either way, close to 90 yds per game on the ground is in no way bad.
BINGO!Willis put his numbers up during a winning streak where everything (defense, offense, special teams) was going right for the bills, which allowed them to play ball control football and feed willis 20+ carries a game - and giving him numerous opportunities to punch it in inside the 10.With fewer points to be scored, Willis may not have as many TDs to score to begin with.
i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.Perception and reality are not always the same.Yeah, but what percent of goalline oppurtunities did he get? plus, me point was was that last year, people were complaining all over these boards that Manning was being selfish, and that James was not getting any goalline carries.
Played in or started?Technically, McGahee did play 16 games last year. 1 of 9 RB's in the top 30 to do so.Played and started, only 4 in the entire league (Alexander, Martin, Edge, Rudi). Tomlinson would have had he not sat week 17.How many RB's played 16 games last year?
my point was that an RB ranked in the top 5 who got the touches willis got should have had at least game with 150 TOTAL yards (includes receiving), not that he should average 150 yards a game.the fact that he didnt tells me that he isnt going to give you big weeks (20+ points) without multiple TD games, which is about the hardest thing to predict for RBs, unless we are talking about priest.mmm 21x4 = 84he needs an average of like 8 ypc!!!Since when is that a determining factor of success in future years.mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.
u consider that real?
agreed, good posting, I wonder why kevin Jones doesn't have the same hype as Willis though. He had a pretty decent season ending stretch , and has a lot of talent around him and his QB situation might be better Garcia/harrington vs Losman?I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.
For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.
Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.
This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.
as i said in my earlier post - in addition to the sieve like Ds of the NFC west, another one of willis's big games in a blowout was against the team with the league worst rushing defense - cleveland - another team that is not his schedule this year...Not to take anything away from McGahee's fine season, but this year he loses:
(Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, TD)
Arizona 102/9/2
St. Louis 100/27/0
Seattle 116/24/4
San Francisco 102/14/2
Instead he gets Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans--the first three should have much better run defenses than the lowly NFC West.
He also gets the AFC West this year which had 3 teams with solid numbers against the run (KC, Den, and SD), although they probably ranked well against the run because they were passed on all day long.
I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.
For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.
Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.
This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.
Hey David,I've noticed a running theme this offseason with you focusing on strength of schedule and who teams faced versus who they face this year. While I understand the reason behind wanting to look at things that way, projecting the effectiveness of league defenses from year N to year N+1 has been shown time and again to be foolhardy, and to actually figure out how any defense is going to do any given week in particular is even less feasible.Not to take anything away from McGahee's fine season, but this year he loses:
(Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, TD)
Arizona 102/9/2
St. Louis 100/27/0
Seattle 116/24/4
San Francisco 102/14/2
Instead he gets Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and New Orleans--the first three should have much better run defenses than the lowly NFC West.
He also gets the AFC West this year which had 3 teams with solid numbers against the run (KC, Den, and SD), although they probably ranked well against the run because they were passed on all day long.
seems that VBD would dictate that owners sitting in the 5,6,7 slots should be looking at elite QB/WR in the first and take whomever out of that 5-12 range is left in the 2nd (or elite QB/WR if all of em go before you can pick again, whichever was not taken in the first)I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.
For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.
Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.
This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.I have over 60 points separating my #1 RB and #5 RB, while my #5 and #12 RB's are only separated by 25 points. Add or subtract just one TD from each and the order would change quite a bit.
I have Deuce ranked higher than 5th, so it's moot.#1 PriestDeuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
LT 6th? :XI have Deuce ranked higher than 5th, so it's moot.#1 PriestDeuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
#2 Deuce
#3 Rudi
#4 Edge
#5 Dillon
Is this how you would draft them or your expect finish?I have Deuce ranked higher than 5th, so it's moot.#1 PriestDeuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
#2 Deuce
#3 Rudi
#4 Edge
#5 Dillon
I think there's a significant dropoff after the top-4 and that the next bunch of RBs are all relatively equivalent. Just b/c McGahee is ranked at #5 doesn't mean he's head and shoulders above the guys he's ranked with. Most people like his upside more than the players he's being compared to. Nearly every player in that group has some question marks though.
For those arguing against McGahee, I'm interested to know who you think should be ranked #5. I have a feeling that there will be very little consensus on the answer to that question.
Deuce seems like the most popular choice, but he's failed to score 10 TDs in each of the past 2 seasons and finished last year ranked #17 while ALSO averaging a measly 4.0 YPC.
Clinton Portis is another player that I'm sure people love b/c of what he did in Denver. But, in his first year in Washington, he started 15 games and finished ranked #11 while averaging a paltry 3.8 YPC and only managing 7 TDs.
This same type of debate could be had on ANY player ranked #5 through #10.I have over 60 points separating my #1 RB and #5 RB, while my #5 and #12 RB's are only separated by 25 points. Add or subtract just one TD from each and the order would change quite a bit.
McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.
Exactlylol at 'guaranteed'McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.
How many times did Mcgahee score a TD once the Bills were inside the 5? It may have taken him 2-3 carries, but he is force fed the ball inside the 5, James is not.McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.
Well, simple math tells me that unless he got three cracks at it each and every time the Bills were inside the 5, he left them hangin' once or twice.All I'm saying is you might want to be careful with that "guarantee".How many times did Mcgahee score a TD once the Bills were inside the 5? It may have taken him 2-3 carries, but he is force fed the ball inside the 5, James is not.McGahee scored 9 TDs on 26 rushes on the GL. That ratio is not as bad as Edge's last year, but it isn't good either. Not by a long shot. Maybe he'll get 26 rushes (or more) on the goal line again next year, but I doubt it.i agree, my point is this. When the Bills do get inside the 5, its almost a guaranteed 6 for Willis. I cant say the same for Edge.
Well wouldn't you have to also cite Henry's nubmer of carries inside the 5 along with his QB's in order to contrast the two?I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25
Thats a pretty bold statement(no pun intended). Willis has as much natural talent as any player(not just RB) in the league- only injuries may hold him back. What makes you say this?BINGO!Willis put his numbers up during a winning streak where everything (defense, offense, special teams) was going right for the bills, which allowed them to play ball control football and feed willis 20+ carries a game - and giving him numerous opportunities to punch it in inside the 10.With fewer points to be scored, Willis may not have as many TDs to score to begin with.
If Bills are not able to play that kind of football this year, willis's numbers will take a huge hit, because he's just not the kind of back that creates lots of offense on his own.
For this year, I would say he and Corey Dillon have the exact role for their team. Ill take the guy whose team is going to be playing with the lead more often...
unless you are talking about Priest or Alexander...or T Davis in his prime...or E Smith in his prime...or maybe, just maybe, McGahee.Why are you ignoring this possiblity that McGahee is the next great TD scoring RB? EVerything he did last year points towards that.my point was that an RB ranked in the top 5 who got the touches willis got should have had at least game with 150 TOTAL yards (includes receiving), not that he should average 150 yards a game.the fact that he didnt tells me that he isnt going to give you big weeks (20+ points) without multiple TD games, which is about the hardest thing to predict for RBs, unless we are talking about priest.mmm 21x4 = 84he needs an average of like 8 ypc!!!Since when is that a determining factor of success in future years.mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.
u consider that real?
I have him fourth and have nop respect for any guppie that has him 16 and wish i was in leagues with you.What about:Tikiagreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.
DD
Martin
Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB)
From looking at the title, I actaully thought this thread had usefull information or some sort of breaking news in it. Silly me I suppose.![]()
i dont think he is overrated at all.first of all, he is the #9 ranked rb in terms of points, but who cares about points? its about value. the difference between #4 (e.james) and willis is 28 points. the difference between willis (#9) and #18 (tatum bell) is 27 points. in other words, after lt2, alexander, holmes, james, its time for qbs and wrs. (valuewise)Willis McGahee is still way overrated.
Concensus number 5 running back as of June 03, 2005.
I'll keep updating this as the season moves closer.
In 2004, 15 of his 21 rushing attempts came in weeks 1-9. During those weeks he had 15 attempts for 4 yards and 4 td's. Same weeks Manning was 9-12 and 9 TD's. The funny part is is that people (on this board) were complaining about James' lack of touches during the first part of the season (when james had his most GL touches).I believe the point was to show that Edge had similar opportunities and just didn't get the job done.Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2004): 24Manning Pass attempts inside the 5 (2003): 20For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2004): 21
Edge Rush attempts inside the 5 (2003): 25
Only when people can't suppoort an argument do they resort to classless nonsense like this.I have him fourth and have nop respect for any guppie that has him 16 and wish i was in leagues with you.What about:Tikiagreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.
DD
Martin
Bettis (umm nevermind you said top RB)
From looking at the title, I actaully thought this thread had usefull information or some sort of breaking news in it. Silly me I suppose.![]()
Because that "possibility" is no greater for McGahee than any other back who converted 35% of his goal-line attempts into TDs.Why are you ignoring this possiblity that McGahee is the next great TD scoring RB?
No, it really doesn't, and many of us have already explained why it doesn't.EVerything he did last year points towards that.