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RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe T
- Start date
jurb26
Footballguy
This seems to be a conservative estimate for Willis' TDs IMO. The guy scored 13 TDs in only 12 starts last year. Placing him at 10-13 means you think he will likely not match his total last year in 16 games or you think he will get hurt. All it would realistically take is one or 2 more TDs from those conservative TD projections and you can see why Willis in the top 5 is not an unrealistic call. The seperation from those 4-10 RBs does not appear to be all that great. You guys happen to go conservative on Willis and bullish on others. Opinions vary on this though.
wilked
Footballguy
I think this is the key argument. Will McGahee score 16-18 TDs? I think notLook at his attempts within the 5 compared to the rest of the RBs last year (data from weeks 6-17, the weeks McGahee was getting 10+ carries / game)
http://footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt=p&g...l=10&mincat=rsh
McGahee received 25 goalline carries over this time. The next closest was Dillon at 23, and LaDanian at 21. In other words, he received over 2 carries / game (2.1) within the 5, whereas the average top 10 back receives about 1.4 - 1.5 carries / game at the goalline. In other words, he received 50% more goalline carries within the 5 than other top RBs. Factor in that many of these opportunities came against awful run-defense teams, and I argue that his numbers last year are an outlier, and he will be closer to the statistical average next year.
Again, until I see a convincing argument that Buffalo will have more opportunities within the 5 than any other NFL team, letting Mcgahee score the 16 - 18 TDs that people are estimating, than I will continue using my "conservative" (read: realistic) numbers for TDs
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jurb26
Footballguy
I agree to a point with you here. You do realize though that Willis got that many last year in only 12 games though. Even if Buf as a team has theirs decrease, odds are that still good that Willis' still will not (from a season standpoint). He has a 4 game cushion there to handle that. Again though, we are not talking about a huge disparity in points to make him take that jump from the 8-10 RB up to 5. He is as good a player as any to put there. One with more upside than most too. Like I said before, it doesn't bother me one bit if people don't see him top 5. There are about 10 RBs I can see in that spot. To say placing him there though is unrealistic seems crazy though.
wilked
Footballguy
I expanded the study to 2002 - 2004
NO ONE even came close to the # of goalline carries McGahee had weeks 6-17 last year. 23 was the closest anyone got. Of the top 30 RBs within the study (as defined by goalline fantasy numbers), the average goalline attempts was 15. McGahee's 25 was most certainly an outlier
http://footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt=p&g...l=10&mincat=rsh
NO ONE even came close to the # of goalline carries McGahee had weeks 6-17 last year. 23 was the closest anyone got. Of the top 30 RBs within the study (as defined by goalline fantasy numbers), the average goalline attempts was 15. McGahee's 25 was most certainly an outlier
http://footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt=p&g...l=10&mincat=rsh
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Great posting Wilked
Factor this data in with the fact that TD production from year to year is the least predictable variable of the major fantasy categories, and I think you have proof as to why McGahee is being overvalued by the masses.
wilked
Footballguy
btw, that is 12 games
Here is another random 12 game stretchhttp://footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt=p&g...l=10&mincat=rsh
Similar numbers
ill also toss out there that mcgahee scored once in 4th vs. arizona when the game was completely out of hand, and twice in the 4th vs. seattle when the game was completely out of hand - points in the game when the bills were up at least 21. As the season went on, the bills realized that they needed to protect willis - pulling him in garbage time - shaud williams scored twice in garbage time in the last 4 games. Another reason that his TD total from last year is deceiving.
Joe,It was merely a piece of data for people to consider.
Thanks for your insightful comments, as always.
A
so, you are predicting that the Bills will never win any games by a large margin in 2005? I don't see why people are discounting a player for scoring TDs. That's exactly what I look for from a RB1.If the over/under on McGahee's TD total in 2005 is 12, I'm betting the over. There are no other RBs outside of the top-4 that I would say that about.
$20, with the stipulation that he plays at least 12 games.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Why have a stipulation? Either he scores 12 or he doesn't.
b/c my projections are based on him playing a full season. I don't think he'll score 12 if he tears his ACL in the preseason so why would I bet on that? But, I'm also not trying to be unreasonable and saying he has to play in all 16 for the bet to count. 12 games = 75% of the season and is exactly the number of starts he had last year.less than 12 games played = no action.
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Willis was banged up late last year and that's why Shaud Williams got a bunch of playing time late in the year. McGahee wasn't even expected to play against San Francisco and he put up 102 yards rushing and 2 TDs.Most stud RBs get pulled when their team is up big. I don't think Willis is any more likely to get pulled, and may even be less likely based on how he was used last year. The backup RB situation is up in the air right now.
Joe T
Footballguy
Arud:How do you account for his lack luster 4.0 YPC average and his lack of receptions?Do you see his o-line improving this year?And do you think Losman is really going have defenses protecting more for the passing game than Bledsoe did?btw - if you answer yes to either of these your homerism has over run your analysis.THANKS GB. 
Deuce McAllister also averaged 4.0 YPC last year and hasn't scored double digit TDs in the past 2 seasons. He has now passed McGahee on our consensus rankings to reach the #5 spot, yet I don't see you starting a thread about him.McGahee wasn't fully recovered from his injury last year, but he became more confident and showed more explosion as the year wore on. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to expect improvement from a RB in his 2nd year as a starter.The offensive line has made an upgrade at LG and a downgrade at LT. I don't know whether that will result in a net improvement or not, but I know Mike Williams has a chance to become one of the best run blocking tackles in the league this year. I also saw dramatic improvement in the offensive line play from the beginning of 2004 to the end, and I think Jim McNally will be able to get them to play well again in 2005.As for Losman, I don't really know what to expect. Him and the left tackle position are the biggest question marks surrounding the Bills offense this year. But, with Moulds, Evans, Reed, and Parrish, and a scrambling QB with a strong arm, I'm pretty sure teams will have to honor the pass a little bit. With Bledsoe back there, defenses frequently stacked 8 in the box so I don't really see how things could get any worse in that regard.
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M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
Agreed that #5-#10 are fairly tightly grouped. Then, the onus for making him #5 falls on making a name for onesself instead of playing the odds. You're definitely gambling by putting him #5, imho.
Thorpe
Footballguy
Nice post. I would like to see the Bills put Gandy next to Mike Williams, and let Willis run behind their combined 725 pounds. Teams can try to crowd the line of scrimmage, but they better be careful because Evans can run past most CBs and Moulds can run over just about anyone in the secondary.
lol at the "right place".BTW, McGahee is still #5 according to ADP. Clearly, this isn't just an FBG staff issue. Most fantasy players feel pretty good about McGahee's prospects for 2005.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Details, details.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Anybody else want to bet this? I'll take the under.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
TOTAL COP-OUT. Injury risk is part of the game. It's what can seperate one player from another. McGahee is a definite injury risk. Why should someone else have to guard against injury. You're the one who made the bold statement on McGahee's TD production. I believe your initial post setting the over and under went something like this "If the over/under on McGahee's TD total in 2005 is 12, I'm betting the over." I don't recall you putting any qualifiers on it. If you think McGahee is gonna score 12 TDs then the risk of injury should be on you, not on the guy betting against you. If you're gonna have a stipultation at least give the guy odds, or give him a stipulation like McGahee can't have more than 20 carries inside the 5. I mean because that's what I based my projections on.
Joe T
Footballguy
Pretty good and #5 are two different things.The fact's are that when you break down his numbers, there's not much there to write home about. And when you consider all the other question marks including prior injuries, a questionable o-line, a huge question mark at qb and you have the most over rated fantasy player of '05.
Posting objectively regarding McGahee has passed you by... and since you are a member of the staff here, that is in itself unfortunate.
Please don't 'JW' us when McGahee falls far short of your expectations this year by going back and deleting all the threads where you tout McGahee.
Joe,you never answered my initial question. who do you believe should be ranked #5?TIAA
TOTAL COP-OUT. Injury risk is part of the game. It's what can seperate one player from another. McGahee is a definite injury risk. Why should someone else have to guard against injury. You're the one who made the bold statement on McGahee's TD production. I believe your initial post setting the over and under went something like this "If the over/under on McGahee's TD total in 2005 is 12, I'm betting the over." I don't recall you putting any qualifiers on it. If you think McGahee is gonna score 12 TDs then the risk of injury should be on you, not on the guy betting against you. If you're gonna have a stipultation at least give the guy odds, or give him a stipulation like McGahee can't have more than 20 carries inside the 5. I mean because that's what I based my projections on.
indeedI'd put the 12 games played stipulation on any player I was placing a bet on, not just McGahee. If he doesn't play very much, it's not exactly a fair bet and the under would have a significant advantage. The bet's not with you, so what do you care? Wilked didn't seem to have a problem with it.Go tell the sportsbooks your theories on wagering. I'm sure they'd be fascinated.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I'm sure if the Eagles are -7 on any given week I can place a bet on the stipulation that McNabb, Owens and Westbrook all play at least 2 quarters because lets face it, I'm placing the bet based on that. If you know any book that allows that give me their name, number, address, or website. I would assume that if they would even allow that, instead of betting $100 to win $100, they would change the odds so that when I bet $100 I'd only win $50.
it's a wager between two people. feel free to make your own wagers in any way you see fit.
btw, most prop bets in a game are done with a stipulation that the player actually plays the game. not sure why you are giving me such a hard time on this. I just want to make sure McGahee has a decent chance to reach 12. Most injuries are random, and I don't consider him any more of an injury risk than any other RB in the top-10.if it was a straight up over/under bet without an injury protection, I would have set the number lower to make it more fair. I still think wilked probably has the odds in his favor here, but I'm willing to take on a little added risk.
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so, why do you expect Deuce to improve on his 4.0 YPC average last year? doesn't the fact that he hasn't scored 10 TDs the past 2 seasons bother you? Deuce barely had 300 total touches in 15 starts in 2004. What about the promotion of Mike Sheppard to offensive coordinator excited you? The guy was terrible in Buffalo in 2001 and the Bills that year scored just 9 rushing TDs total. Deuce finished last year ranked as the #17 ranked fantasy RB. Yet, he's somehow a safer bet to finish #5 this year than anyone else?and, how is Portis a safer bet? He averaged 3.7 YPC last year, the Redskins WR group is one of the worst in the league, and Ramsey/Brunell/Campbell at QB is just as big of a question mark as Losman/Holcomb.
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Sidewinder
Footballguy
Healthy ankle + Jammal Brown + Jermane Mayberry = improved Deuce in 2005
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I would not draft Rudi 3rd overall (I'd take Priest or Deuce in that order). I would not take my chances on Rudi coming back to me in the 2nd round if I were in spot 1.08 or so. You have to be a bit pre-emptive in good leagues since there's usually more than 1 other member who believes in a guy who isn't getting any love.
FWIW, I have Deuce #6 and nearly equivalent with McGahee. Just not sure why one is considered safe after a #17 finish with 15 starts last year while the other is considered overrated despite a #9 finish with 12 starts.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Team situations. New Orleans may not be very good in the grand scheme of things, but I'd rather have a more accomplished RB that doesn't get as many GL opportunities as I would like, on a team that should finish 8-8 with a top 15 offense, than a RB who gets most of the GL opportunities, that's been in the league 1 year, on a team that will finish with 5 wins at best in the bottom 10 on offense.
We've seen McAllister with 350+ carries in a season and 70 catches. We've seen him rush for double digit TDs. It's established that those goals are achievable for him, now he just needs to do both in the same season.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I guess the only explanation is personal preference. I personally have Tiki Barber ahead of both those guys.I'm just thankful that I have the 1.03 in my draft this year. I'd wouldn't know what to do if I were drafting in the 1.05-1.08 slot.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Well for one the QB situation in New Orleans is more stable. With Duece your looking at twice as many balls thrown his way, with the potential of twice as many yards. Duece actually started 14 games last year and left 3 of those injured early. McGahee also has a very able back up in Travis Henry that is capable of taking snaps away from him.
