RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

If McGahee has to rely on yardage for his fantasy stats, his owners are in for long seasons.

he averaged 100 yards a game last year. that's plenty for a guy who can rack up TDs as well.Henry is a backup. The Bills want to move him, and he wants to be moved. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back to play, but that situation could still get a whole lot uglier before it gets any better. I think he's insurance and not really a legit threat to McGahee. But, that's just my feel about the situation. I don't think those numbers you present tell the whole story. While I always thought Henry was a solid goalline back, McGahee's power and patience last year was way more impressive. I seriously doubt McGahee is the type of RB that will get pulled in goalline situations. In fact, like Burning Sensation said, I think they will feed him the ball consistently once they get close.

 

[wilked]

Most people are missing the boat on J Jones. I am in the middle of writing an article on him, but see him as the biggest value at RB this year, ahead of Tiki

What makes JJones better than Mcgahee?

Quite simply, he will touch the ball moreCompare the two backs in terms of touches each game. I will use McGahee weeks 6-17, and J Jones 11-17, really the weeks that matter

McGahee:

29, 17, 31, 39, 15, 23, 30, 24, 29, 13, 16, 29

Average: 23.75

StDev: 7.97

Jones:

30, 34, 33, 25, 27, 24, 34

Average: 29.57

Stdev: 4.27

So, he sees 25% more touches per game, and has half the variablility in touches per game.

I will not even touch the fact that he is more effective when touching the ball, I think the above is enough to solidify my point

 

[Holy Schneikes]

If McGahee has to rely on yardage for his fantasy stats, his owners are in for long seasons.

he averaged 100 yards a game last year. that's plenty for a guy who can rack up TDs as well.Henry is a backup. The Bills want to move him, and he wants to be moved. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back to play, but that situation could still get a whole lot uglier before it gets any better. I think he's insurance and not really a legit threat to McGahee. But, that's just my feel about the situation. I don't think those numbers you present tell the whole story. While I always thought Henry was a solid goalline back, McGahee's power and patience last year was way more impressive. I seriously doubt McGahee is the type of RB that will get pulled in goalline situations. In fact, like Burning Sensation said, I think they will feed him the ball consistently once they get close.

Well, McGahee's power and patience on the goal-line may have been impressive, but it wasn't particularly effective. In goal-line situations (5 yards and in), he got 13 yards on 25 carries. He had 9 TDs in those 25 carries, so you have to figure that accounted for most if not all of the yardage. That means that for those other 16 carries, he averaged ZERO yards. I know numbers don't tell the whole story, but I think people are seeing what they want to see. How impressive can zero yards in 16 carries be? What other explanation is there?Again, I'm not even saying the guy is horrible. I'm just saying that his primary claim-to-fame from a fantasy standpoint is that he scores lots of TDs, and he wasn't really all that effective at doing it!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

If McGahee has to rely on yardage for his fantasy stats, his owners are in for long seasons.

he averaged 100 yards a game last year. that's plenty for a guy who can rack up TDs as well.Henry is a backup. The Bills want to move him, and he wants to be moved. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back to play, but that situation could still get a whole lot uglier before it gets any better. I think he's insurance and not really a legit threat to McGahee. But, that's just my feel about the situation. I don't think those numbers you present tell the whole story. While I always thought Henry was a solid goalline back, McGahee's power and patience last year was way more impressive. I seriously doubt McGahee is the type of RB that will get pulled in goalline situations. In fact, like Burning Sensation said, I think they will feed him the ball consistently once they get close.

Well, McGahee's power and patience on the goal-line may have been impressive, but it wasn't particularly effective. In goal-line situations (5 yards and in), he got 13 yards on 25 carries. He had 9 TDs in those 25 carries, so you have to figure that accounted for most if not all of the yardage. That means that for those other 16 carries, he averaged ZERO yards. I know numbers don't tell the whole story, but I think people are seeing what they want to see. How impressive can zero yards in 16 carries be? What other explanation is there?Again, I'm not even saying the guy is horrible. I'm just saying that his primary claim-to-fame from a fantasy standpoint is that he scores lots of TDs, and he wasn't really all that effective at doing it!

it's not easy to score TDs on the goalline so I don't worry too much about effectiveness. As long as he gets enough attempts down there, he'll put up solid TD numbers. The addition of Anderson at LG should also improve the interior run blocking.Another thing to consider is that with Bledsoe at QB, the entire defense was likely keying on McGahee. With a mobile QB like Losman under center, they will have to worry much more about the QB running/throwing the ball, and that could soften things up a bit.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Another thing to consider is that with Bledsoe at QB, the entire defense was likely keying on McGahee. With a mobile QB like Losman under center, they will have to worry much more about the QB running/throwing the ball, and that could soften things up a bit.

That could also take away from his attempts.

it's not easy to score TDs on the goalline so I don't worry too much about effectiveness. As long as he gets enough attempts down there, he'll put up solid TD numbers. The addition of Anderson at LG should also improve the interior run blocking.

When you look at some of the numbers inside the 5 you can see how bad McGahee really did.For RBs who had at least 10 attempts only Marshall Faulk and Clinton Portis had a lower ypr inside the 5.

For RBs who had at least 20 attempts he had the lowest ypr inside the 5.

Here's how hard it is to run inside the 5:

Tiki Barber: 10 TD's on 15 attempts

Thomas Jones: 7 TDs on 11 attempts

Curtis Martin: 8 TDs on 18 attempts

Dominick Davis: 10 TDs on 19 attempts

Jerome Bettis: 12 TDs on 23 attempts

Jamal Lewis: 6 TDs on 9 attempts

So I guess I need to add another requirement for McGahee to be in the top 5. He needs to:

1. Bring up his yards per carry.

2. He needs to rush 350+ times.

3. He needs to play all 16 games.

4. He needs to get at least 25 carries inside the 5 again. (only 6 teams had that many last year)

 

[DonnyT33]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Imagine this kid had one of the worst knee injuries we have ever seen and is still a beast of a runner. This kid will be heard from and is going to be the Buff Offense this year. I have him in my top five, I love the kids size strength and game. Remember this team finished very strong last year and there D is very good which will help him. I think he will average a TD a game a 100 yards at least.

jamal lewis ran for 2000 with hjis bad knee, how did edge look lately?

I am sure Willis knee injury was much worse and maybe as bad as they get. Lewis walked off when he got hurt so you go figure that one again.

 

[DonnyT33]

If McGahee has to rely on yardage for his fantasy stats, his owners are in for long seasons.

he averaged 100 yards a game last year. that's plenty for a guy who can rack up TDs as well.Henry is a backup. The Bills want to move him, and he wants to be moved. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes back to play, but that situation could still get a whole lot uglier before it gets any better. I think he's insurance and not really a legit threat to McGahee. But, that's just my feel about the situation. I don't think those numbers you present tell the whole story. While I always thought Henry was a solid goalline back, McGahee's power and patience last year was way more impressive. I seriously doubt McGahee is the type of RB that will get pulled in goalline situations. In fact, like Burning Sensation said, I think they will feed him the ball consistently once they get close.

Willis=TD machine

 

[Bouddha]

In response to several opinions in this thread:1. T Henry was with the Bills and healthy in the latter part of 2004 and did not play, so the 1 in 6 odds from Holy S are way too high (in fact 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9, not 1/6). I would bet the farm at these odds.2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004. The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity. Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.3. There is generally consensus that the top 4 RBs are a notch above, then there is a drop and RBs 5-18 are not separated by a whole lot. We all have different guys in 5-10 vs 13-18. Because of this, whoever has the ADP #5 will get bashed "he is overvalued". It just happens to be McGahee. If RBs #1-4 are above others, and if RBs 5-18 were theoretically extremely close, then of course the guy that's #5 will be considered overvalued and the guy #18 will be considered undervalued. It's the same thing with Vick. It is clear to everybody who the top 3 QBs are. Then there is a big dropoff. Put any QB at #4 and you could say he is overvalued because he has a slim chance of cracking the top 3 relative to the probability he will end up lower than #4. It would be more accurate to look at overall ADP, where you would see the big dropoff from QB #3 to QB #4.Just my opinion.

 

[Snotbubbles]

3. There is generally consensus that the top 4 RBs are a notch above, then there is a drop and RBs 5-18 are not separated by a whole lot. We all have different guys in 5-10 vs 13-18. Because of this, whoever has the ADP #5 will get bashed "he is overvalued". It just happens to be McGahee. If RBs #1-4 are above others, and if RBs 5-18 were theoretically extremely close, then of course the guy that's #5 will be considered overvalued and the guy #18 will be considered undervalued. It's the same thing with Vick. It is clear to everybody who the top 3 QBs are. Then there is a big dropoff. Put any QB at #4 and you could say he is overvalued because he has a slim chance of cracking the top 3 relative to the probability he will end up lower than #4. It would be more accurate to look at overall ADP, where you would see the big dropoff from QB #3 to QB #4.

Agree...but, there are better RBs to slot #5 than McGahee. He relies too heavily on TDs for his success. You're better off grabbing a guy who puts up more total yardage per game then a guy who NEEDS to get 14+ TDs to even sniff the top 5.As I said before, McGahee would have needed 17 TDs last year to be in the top 5. A guy like Tiki Barber would have only needed 9.

 

[Bouddha]

3. There is generally consensus that the top 4 RBs are a notch above, then there is a drop and RBs 5-18 are not separated by a whole lot. We all have different guys in 5-10 vs 13-18. Because of this, whoever has the ADP #5 will get bashed "he is overvalued". It just happens to be McGahee. If RBs #1-4 are above others, and if RBs 5-18 were theoretically extremely close, then of course the guy that's #5 will be considered overvalued and the guy #18 will be considered undervalued. It's the same thing with Vick. It is clear to everybody who the top 3 QBs are. Then there is a big dropoff. Put any QB at #4 and you could say he is overvalued because he has a slim chance of cracking the top 3 relative to the probability he will end up lower than #4. It would be more accurate to look at overall ADP, where you would see the big dropoff from QB #3 to QB #4.

Agree...but, there are better RBs to slot #5 than McGahee. He relies too heavily on TDs for his success. You're better off grabbing a guy who puts up more total yardage per game then a guy who NEEDS to get 14+ TDs to even sniff the top 5.As I said before, McGahee would have needed 17 TDs last year to be in the top 5. A guy like Tiki Barber would have only needed 9.

I don't necessarily disagree with you. I just think McGahee and Vick get more bad press than they deserve, simply because of the fact that they happen to be ranked first of a group of players after a dropoff in talent above them.

 

[Thorpe]

3. There is generally consensus that the top 4 RBs are a notch above, then there is a drop and RBs 5-18 are not separated by a whole lot. We all have different guys in 5-10 vs 13-18. Because of this, whoever has the ADP #5 will get bashed "he is overvalued". It just happens to be McGahee. If RBs #1-4 are above others, and if RBs 5-18 were theoretically extremely close, then of course the guy that's #5 will be considered overvalued and the guy #18 will be considered undervalued. It's the same thing with Vick. It is clear to everybody who the top 3 QBs are. Then there is a big dropoff. Put any QB at #4 and you could say he is overvalued because he has a slim chance of cracking the top 3 relative to the probability he will end up lower than #4. It would be more accurate to look at overall ADP, where you would see the big dropoff from QB #3 to QB #4.

Agree...but, there are better RBs to slot #5 than McGahee. He relies too heavily on TDs for his success. You're better off grabbing a guy who puts up more total yardage per game then a guy who NEEDS to get 14+ TDs to even sniff the top 5.As I said before, McGahee would have needed 17 TDs last year to be in the top 5. A guy like Tiki Barber would have only needed 9.

Won't Willis be better physically this year, with another passed since his injury, and a whole training camp?Won't he have a better idea of what he needs to do since he has been in the league a season?

Won't the Bills be better as a team now that their head coach and line coach are in their second year with the team?

You need to account for improvement when you figure Willis's numbers. I agree that many other runners will not improve from last year, but Willis is not one of them.

Also, I have a feeling that part of the reason Willis had a lot of TDs and not so many yards is that the Bills defense and special teams consistently gave the offense very good field position.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Won't Willis be better physically this year, with another passed since his injury, and a whole training camp?Won't he have a better idea of what he needs to do since he has been in the league a season?

There is the possibility that he can improve physically. There is also the possibility that he may never be 100% ever again. He's entering his 3rd season. He's been in the league 2 years already. He should already know what it takes.

Won't the Bills be better as a team now that their head coach and line coach are in their second year with the team?

Did they add more talent along the offensive line? Or did they lose talent on the offensive line?

You need to account for improvement when you figure Willis's numbers. I agree that many other runners will not improve from last year, but Willis is not one of them.

I am accounting for an improvement. But how much do you account for? McGahee had alot of things go right for him last year. 1. He face a relatively easy schedule where he saw most of his production. 2 TDs vs. ARI (27th in yardage, 13th in TDs)2 TDs vs. SF (20th in yardage, 31st in TDs)2 TDs vs. CLE (32nd in yardage, 32nd in TDs)4 TDs vs. SEA (23rd in yardage, 25th in TDs)2 TDs vs. PIT subs.Instead of those teams, this year he'll face TB (9th), DEN (10th), SD (11th) ATL (14th), CAR (15th), HOU (16th). Of course he gets some cupcakes OAK (31st), KC (29th), NO (27th). But he has alot less games against weaker opponents this year.2. He saw a ton of rushing attempts inside the 5. If he hopes to even get close to 14+ TDs he's gonna have to have the same amount of opportunities inside the 5 where he was a TERRIBLE runner. 9 TDs in 25 attempts. And he's gonna have to do a better job with the attempts he gets. Here's where he needs to improve:1. He's gonna have to get ALOT more carries. 284 ain't gonna cut it. I didn't watch too many Bills games, but from what other are saying, he got dinged up quite a bit last year. He has to put up AT LEAST 350 carries. 2. Edge was the #6 RB last year with these stats: 334-1548-4.6-9; 51-483-9.5-0. McGahee averaged 4.0 ypr and 7.7 ypc. So he's gonna have to get more rushes at a higher average and more catches at a higher average.

Also, I have a feeling that part of the reason Willis had a lot of TDs and not so many yards is that the Bills defense and special teams consistently gave the offense very good field position.

Not really sure what relevance that has but. On McGahee TDs the BUF starting field position was their opponents 48 yard line.

 

[reg]

For those that are saying he has such a tough run schedule this upcoming year, you don't think any of those teams are going to become worse?From NFL.com RYPG given up.2002 top 10 vs run: (four from previous year)Pit*Ten*OakDen*MiaTBSF*CarPhiMin2003 top 10 vs run: (three from previous year)Ten*JaxDalNEMia*BalDenBufSF*GB2004 top 10 run defense: (five from previous year)PitWasSDDen*NYJNE*Buf*Bal*AtlDal*Some have a history of being in the top rush defenses, so those you could say will likely continue to be tough, but to expect all the teams he will face this year to be strong against the run just because they were a year ago is not realistic.

 

[Snotbubbles]

It would be hard for me to believe that his schedule will be easier then this: 2 TDs vs. ARI (27th in yardage, 13th in TDs)2 TDs vs. SF (20th in yardage, 31st in TDs)2 TDs vs. CLE (32nd in yardage, 32nd in TDs)4 TDs vs. SEA (23rd in yardage, 25th in TDs)2 TDs vs. PIT subs.If you're relying on him to go off vs. KC, OAK, NO to make it to the top 5 ok. I play in a h2h league. I'll go 3-11 with that kind of production.

 

[Thorpe]

Not really sure what relevance that has but. On McGahee TDs the BUF starting field position was their opponents 48 yard line.

Where did you get this stat? How does that compare with other RBs?The point I was going for, is that when you get consistently good field position, you can score a lot of TDs, but you can't rack up a lot of yards.To me, the Willis debate comes down to how much better will Willis be this year compared to last year. I think he will be a half-step faster. Since he was pretty good a getting around the corner last year, this year I think he will be a monster. The game from last year to watch is the Baltimore game, where Willis stiff-armed Ray Lewis two times.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Where did you get this stat? How does that compare with other RBs?

I looked at all the drives he scored a TD on and looked where they started the drive.

The point I was going for, is that when you get consistently good field position, you can score a lot of TDs, but you can't rack up a lot of yards.

Not really relevant. Total carries is more relevant. He was 10th in total carries last year, yet he was only 14th in total rush yards.

To me, the Willis debate comes down to how much better will Willis be this year compared to last year. I think he will be a half-step faster. Since he was pretty good a getting around the corner last year, this year I think he will be a monster. The game from last year to watch is the Baltimore game, where Willis stiff-armed Ray Lewis two times.

16 carries for 58 yards. 3.6 yards per carry. Stiff-arms are not a scoring category in FF.

 

[wilked]

In response to several opinions in this thread:

2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004. The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity. Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.

Go ahead and take away 5 carries per game. He still has more touches / game than McGahee, is still more of a two-dimensional back, and is more effective with the carries he has.You can throw a 5 carry / game handicap on J Jones and he still comes out ahead

 

[Burning Sensation]

In response to several opinions in this thread:

2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004.  The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity.  Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.

He still has more touches / game than McGahee, is still more of a two-dimensional back, and is more effective with the carries he has.

You are just making stuff up now.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Another thing to consider is that with Bledsoe at QB, the entire defense was likely keying on McGahee. With a mobile QB like Losman under center, they will have to worry much more about the QB running/throwing the ball, and that could soften things up a bit.

That could also take away from his attempts.

it's not easy to score TDs on the goalline so I don't worry too much about effectiveness. As long as he gets enough attempts down there, he'll put up solid TD numbers. The addition of Anderson at LG should also improve the interior run blocking.

When you look at some of the numbers inside the 5 you can see how bad McGahee really did.For RBs who had at least 10 attempts only Marshall Faulk and Clinton Portis had a lower ypr inside the 5.

For RBs who had at least 20 attempts he had the lowest ypr inside the 5.

Here's how hard it is to run inside the 5:

Tiki Barber: 10 TD's on 15 attempts

Thomas Jones: 7 TDs on 11 attempts

Curtis Martin: 8 TDs on 18 attempts

Dominick Davis: 10 TDs on 19 attempts

Jerome Bettis: 12 TDs on 23 attempts

Jamal Lewis: 6 TDs on 9 attempts

So I guess I need to add another requirement for McGahee to be in the top 5. He needs to:

1. Bring up his yards per carry.

2. He needs to rush 350+ times.

3. He needs to play all 16 games.

4. He needs to get at least 25 carries inside the 5 again. (only 6 teams had that many last year)

You cant seriously think that these stats reflect who is the better goalline back, do you?

 

[wilked]

In response to several opinions in this thread:

2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004. The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity. Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.

He still has more touches / game than McGahee, is still more of a two-dimensional back, and is more effective with the carries he has.

You are just making stuff up now.

Show me numbers to say otherwiseAverage touches J Jones = 29.57

29.57 - 5 = 24.57

Average touches / game McGahee = 23.75

McGahee:

Average receptions / game: 1.6

J Jones:

Average receptions / game: 2.2 (2.8 over last 5)

Average yds / carry

McGahee: 3.99

J Jones: 4.18

Which of the above points was I making up?

edited to add: as with all stats I produce for Jones and McGahee, I use McGahee weeks 6-17, and Jones 11-17

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal (his first game back from injury) andl his average jumps to 4.46 YPC. Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

 

[Burning Sensation]

In response to several opinions in this thread:

2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004.  The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity.  Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.

He still has more touches / game than McGahee, is still more of a two-dimensional back, and is more effective with the carries he has.

You are just making stuff up now.

Show me numbers to say otherwiseAverage touches J Jones = 29.57

29.57 - 5 = 24.57

Average touches / game McGahee = 23.75

McGahee:

Average receptions / game: 1.6

J Jones:

Average receptions / game: 2.2 (2.8 over last 5)

Average yds / carry

McGahee: 3.99

J Jones: 4.18

Which of the above points was I making up?

edited to add: as with all stats I produce for Jones and McGahee, I use McGahee weeks 6-17, and Jones 11-17

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal his average jumps to 4.46 YPC. Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal his average jumps to 4.46 YPC. Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

I was going to comment further, until i read this, and realized i am wasting my time.

 

[wilked]

In response to several opinions in this thread:

2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004. The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity. Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.

He still has more touches / game than McGahee, is still more of a two-dimensional back, and is more effective with the carries he has.

You are just making stuff up now.

Show me numbers to say otherwiseAverage touches J Jones = 29.57

29.57 - 5 = 24.57

Average touches / game McGahee = 23.75

McGahee:

Average receptions / game: 1.6

J Jones:

Average receptions / game: 2.2 (2.8 over last 5)

Average yds / carry

McGahee: 3.99

J Jones: 4.18

Which of the above points was I making up?

edited to add: as with all stats I produce for Jones and McGahee, I use McGahee weeks 6-17, and Jones 11-17

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal his average jumps to 4.46 YPC. Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal his average jumps to 4.46 YPC. Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

I was going to comment further, until i read this, and realized i am wasting my time.

S, once you crunch the numbers, the story becomes more and more obvious.

 

[Burning Sensation]

In response to several opinions in this thread:

2. You cannot look at Ju Jones' carries in the last part of 2004 to say he will get more carries than Willis in 2004.  The Cowboys have openly said they want to limit him to 20 carries a game because it's better for his longevity.  Whether A-Train makes the team, or whether Marion gets carries, it remains to be seen, but to assume that Jones will get almost 30 touches a game is too optimistic.

He still has more touches / game than McGahee, is still more of a two-dimensional back, and is more effective with the carries he has.

You are just making stuff up now.

Show me numbers to say otherwiseAverage touches J Jones = 29.57

29.57 - 5 = 24.57

Average touches / game McGahee = 23.75

McGahee:

Average receptions / game: 1.6

J Jones:

Average receptions / game: 2.2 (2.8 over last 5)

Average yds / carry

McGahee: 3.99

J Jones: 4.18

Which of the above points was I making up?

edited to add: as with all stats I produce for Jones and McGahee, I use McGahee weeks 6-17, and Jones 11-17

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal his average jumps to 4.46 YPC. Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

edited to further add: throw out J Jones game against Bal his average jumps to 4.46 YPC.  Throw out McGahee's worst (NE), and his average only rises to 4.07

I was going to comment further, until i read this, and realized i am wasting my time.

S, once you crunch the numbers, the story becomes more and more obvious.

For a guy who relies on numbers as much as you do, i would figure you would be better at using them to support an argument. OF COURSE if you take Jones and Mcgahees worst game out Jones average will go up more, he played in LESS games.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I don't see the value of looking at YPR inside the 5 yard line when comparing RBs. You're dealing with a small sample size, and a very small standard deviation so 1 or 2 outliers could skew a player's numbers considerably. Players that get more carries from the 4 and 5 yard line are also likely to wind up with a higher average than players that get more carries from the 1 and 2 yard lines, regardless of any real difference in ability or performance.

 

[jurb26]

For a guy who relies on numbers as much as you do, i would figure you would be better at using them to support an argument. OF COURSE if you take Jones and Mcgahees worst game out Jones average will go up more, he played in LESS games.

Taking away both players WORST and BEST YPA games:Willis, 258/1001 for 3.9, down 0.1

JJ, 145/564 for 3.9, down 0.3

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

McGahee is ridiculously overvalued.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I love the 150 yd cut off too.  You do realize that in his 12 starts, Willis went for over 100 yds rushing in 7 of them.

You do realize that in 12 starts he averaged about 88 yards a game. His yardage totals given his very lackluster receiving skills are disturbing.

Joe brings up an excellent point...people seem comfortable to look at McGahee's part-time TD totals and think, "WOW, imagine what he'll do starting all 16 games!"

Not to be an ###, but how SHOULD a person project? I mean, McGahee was a beast, if only for 12 games. I'm not saying top 5 good, but you can only ignore the numbers so much. For what reasons should we expect a significant decline in carries per game? Since he played the rest of the year without significant injury, at what point should we expect one?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

This has already been disproven. Edge simply was not effective there last year. Good comment though

Oh dear, I thought you were smart.

 

[wilked]

This has already been disproven. Edge simply was not effective there last year. Good comment though

Oh dear, I thought you were smart.

eh?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

just another piece of data to consider: according to Clayton's SOS analysis, the Bills SOS for RBs is the same in 2005 as it was in 2004.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

McGahee is ridiculously overvalued.

some day, you'll become a believer too. some day.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

McGahee is ridiculously overvalued.

some day, you'll become a believer too. some day.

I find it hard to believe in torn ACL's, is all. Risk/reward.If you've had one (or two), you KNOW how easy it is to happen again. So, I won't pin my hopes on a reconstructed knee, especially when that runner relies on lateral movement.

So you want to bring up Edge now, I assume. Fine. But how anybody thinks he is the same, I will never know. He is good no doubt, but he used to be great, and is clearly a product of a GREAT situation for a RB...ala Denver.

For example, Jamal Lewis runs north/south, and has proven (with more games) he is less of a risk. If McGahee turns in an impressive season this year, I'll believe. For now, I'll take someone comparable, but with less risk (as I see it), and move on to the 2nd round.

I still remember the Terrell Davis's and Jamal Anderson's. Both came back, and were felled. It happens.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

SLBD, we've had this discussion before. I know your thoughts on McGahee and ACLs very well. No sense in getting into it again.I think McGahee will make you a believer this year. We'll see how it goes though.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

SLBD, we've had this discussion before. I know your thoughts on McGahee and ACLs very well. No sense in getting into it again.

I think McGahee will make you a believer this year. We'll see how it goes though.

I was not trying to go at it again...just stating my reasons (to others, mostly) on selecting someone else.For instance, Deuce or Tiki are comparable, but with less risk.

 

[Snotbubbles]

just another piece of data to consider: according to Clayton's SOS analysis, the Bills SOS for RBs is the same in 2005 as it was in 2004.

When you consider that data, also consider that the numbers are skewed because McGahee played against the PIT subs in week 17 and they had the #1 defense in 2004. Thus he wasn't really playing against the #1 defense, but a shell of what was the #1 defense. Also you should base anything on the entire 2004 schedule since McGahee didn't start getting carries until week 6. So when determining McGahee's SOS it should be based from week 6 to week 17, not week 1 to week 17.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I just ran the numbers.Based on scoring defense in 2004 the average rank of defense McGahee faced from week 6 to 17 was: 15.8That includes the PIT game which definitely skews the ranking in McGahee's favor.Based on scoring defense in 2005 the average rank of defense that BUF faces will be: 14.8So the schedule overall may be the same, but the schedule McGahee will face will be tougher.

 

[Burning Sensation]

McGahee is ridiculously overvalued.

some day, you'll become a believer too. some day.

I find it hard to believe in torn ACL's, is all. Risk/reward.If you've had one (or two), you KNOW how easy it is to happen again.

Really? How many guys can you list who have suffered an ACL tears after tearing 2 already?

 

[lordofgun]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Good post! McGahee gets at least two cracks at the end zone every time the Bills are inside the 5. Also, McGahee had a few long TD runs called back last year due to holding calls.

 

[Joe T]

just another piece of data to consider: according to Clayton's SOS analysis, the Bills SOS for RBs is the same in 2005 as it was in 2004.

Aaron:Strength of Schedule analysis is a hallucinogen for the masses.

Please don't use SOS in any more of your comments. It is a VERY weak argument.

 

[Burning Sensation]

just another piece of data to consider: according to Clayton's SOS analysis, the Bills SOS for RBs is the same in 2005 as it was in 2004.

Aaron:Strength of Schedule analysis is a hallucinogen for the masses.

Please don't use SOS in any more of your comments. It is a VERY weak argument.

I agree, i dont care if my RB has to play 16 games against Baltimore or 16 games against the Cardinals.

 

[Jason Wood]

just another piece of data to consider: according to Clayton's SOS analysis, the Bills SOS for RBs is the same in 2005 as it was in 2004.

Aaron:Strength of Schedule analysis is a hallucinogen for the masses.

Please don't use SOS in any more of your comments. It is a VERY weak argument.

I agree, i dont care if my RB has to play 16 games against Baltimore or 16 games against the Cardinals.

It's too easy to find solace in the extremes. OBVIOUSLY in your example SOS would matter. What Joe is saying (or at least where I believe he's going) is that projecting how a given defense is going to perform in any specific week in 2005 based on how they did during the 2004 season is fodder and no one has ever showed statistically an ability to effectively do so.

 

[jurb26]

It's too easy to find solace in the extremes. OBVIOUSLY in your example SOS would matter. What Joe is saying (or at least where I believe he's going) is that projecting how a given defense is going to perform in any specific week in 2005 based on how they did during the 2004 season is fodder and no one has ever showed statistically an ability to effectively do so.

Absolutly true.

 

[wilked]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Good post! McGahee gets at least two cracks at the end zone every time the Bills are inside the 5. Also, McGahee had a few long TD runs called back last year due to holding calls.

This is a fallacy, FYICheck the numbers I posted earlier in this discussion. He received more than one rushing opportunity within the 10 50% of the time, far from "at least two cracks...every time..."

 

[Burning Sensation]

just another piece of data to consider: according to Clayton's SOS analysis, the Bills SOS for RBs is the same in 2005 as it was in 2004.

Aaron:Strength of Schedule analysis is a hallucinogen for the masses.

Please don't use SOS in any more of your comments. It is a VERY weak argument.

I agree, i dont care if my RB has to play 16 games against Baltimore or 16 games against the Cardinals.

It's too easy to find solace in the extremes. OBVIOUSLY in your example SOS would matter. What Joe is saying (or at least where I believe he's going) is that projecting how a given defense is going to perform in any specific week in 2005 based on how they did during the 2004 season is fodder and no one has ever showed statistically an ability to effectively do so.

I think SOS is way overated, but to dismiss it altogether is a mistake, and that was my point.

 

[jurb26]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Good post! McGahee gets at least two cracks at the end zone every time the Bills are inside the 5. Also, McGahee had a few long TD runs called back last year due to holding calls.

This is a fallacy, FYICheck the numbers I posted earlier in this discussion. He received more than one rushing opportunity within the 10 50% of the time, far from "at least two cracks...every time..."

 

[reg]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Good post! McGahee gets at least two cracks at the end zone every time the Bills are inside the 5. Also, McGahee had a few long TD runs called back last year due to holding calls.

This is a fallacy, FYICheck the numbers I posted earlier in this discussion. He received more than one rushing opportunity within the 10 50% of the time, far from "at least two cracks...every time..."

So he's good inside the 15?

 

[jurb26]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Good post! McGahee gets at least two cracks at the end zone every time the Bills are inside the 5. Also, McGahee had a few long TD runs called back last year due to holding calls.

This is a fallacy, FYICheck the numbers I posted earlier in this discussion. He received more than one rushing opportunity within the 10 50% of the time, far from "at least two cracks...every time..."

So he's good inside the 15?

Maybe we should just take redzone, idunno. Either way these guys are talking about 2 different things here. 1 said inside the 5, the other says no that is false because his numbers are x inside the 10.

 

[wilked]

agreed. no other top RB will depend so much on TDs for their fantasy value, which is a dicey proposition. mcgahee did not have one game over 150 total yards last year, despite getting fed the ball over 20 times a game.

Shaun Alexander

Is this fishing or serious?Alexander has averaged 15 TD's per year for the last four seasons. He relies on TD's yes, but not only has he proven he can do it year in and year out, he also puts on 1700 to 1800 APY per year which there is no way McGahee should be projected near.

Mcgahee had over 1300 yards and 13 TD's last year, and only started 12 games. Anyway, my point is this, the same things were being said about Alexander just a few years ago. For those of you who dont like Mcgahee because TD's are unpredictabe, go ahead and take Edge so i can listen to you cry every week that you hate Peyton Mannning because James isnt getting goalline touches.

Good post! McGahee gets at least two cracks at the end zone every time the Bills are inside the 5. Also, McGahee had a few long TD runs called back last year due to holding calls.

This is a fallacy, FYICheck the numbers I posted earlier in this discussion. He received more than one rushing opportunity within the 10 50% of the time, far from "at least two cracks...every time..."

So he's good inside the 15?

Seriously, rather than simply post why don't you run the numbers yourself? People like to make sweeping statements rather than show statistics.That said, while I could run the study, I think the results will be useless.

Let's say the study is, 'What % of the time did McGahee get 2 rushing attempts when the Bills were within the OPP 5'

How do you handle when he scores on his first attempt? How do you handle when they get within the 5 on 3rd down? How about 2nd or 4th?

I took a quick look, and when the Bills were within the 5 on 1st down, McGahee often received 2 carries. I just think that it is not significant, as most NFL teams tend to run two running plays when within the 5 on 1st down. That is why I think using the 10 is a better indicator.

The above poster was correct that when the Bills have a 1st down within the 5, McGahee usually received two cracks at the end zone. Without running the numbers, I expect that most every starting back in the NFL is in the same boat there, excepting the Colts, Vikings, and those teams with a goalline specialist.

 

[MondayQB]

In my league W McGahee finished the year as the 9th best RB. Ahead of him was:Alexander, Tomlinson, Barber, Martin, Dillon, Holmes, D Davis, and Rudi Johnson.I would expect:1200-1400 Rushing Yds200-300 Rec Yds10-13 Total TDsTop 5, probably not. I could find 5 guys to put ahead of him. Top 10 guaranteed.

 

[wilked]

[quote name=jurb26' date='Jun 6 2005, 12:01 PMSo he's good inside the 15?

eh?