RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

[Archer]

Lots of people doubting him and I honestly can't figure out why. Did these doubters not watch him in late Nov/Dec when he actually had a chance to touch the ball??

 

[mlball77]

1000 and 8 as a floor (assuming 16 games) seems a tad high to me, personally, and I'm in the pro-Patterson camp. There are some risks, as have been detailed in this thread. With that said, I love his upside, particularly in the long run. I own him and dynasty and likely will grab him in my standard redraft league (hopefully).

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Lots of people doubting him and I honestly can't figure out why. Did these doubters not watch him in late Nov/Dec when he actually had a chance to touch the ball??

That's not fair. Read the posts. Most of the doubters saw exactly what you did, but are having a harder time projecting that performance into big receiving numbers. What he showed /= what he needs to be an elite WR. It can happen, but what we saw his rookie year, as exciting as it was, isn't really evidence of it.

 

[Leonidas]

People still play non PPR? Anyways in PPR my guess is the above projections are still anticipated to be below Harvins career year.

Yes, people play standard leagues.

Hence the term...standard.

Not everybody wants to award points on negative plays.

I've heard this argument before but I suspect you award points on a 8 yard catch on 3rd and 9 which shouldn't be viewed as a "positive" play either. Well, unless they are in clear 4 down territory I suppose...

uh-huh

 

[Biabreakable]

I guess all of it. 1200 total yards seems steep. 300 rush yards does as well. 11 TD as well.

Let's start with rush yards. 300 rush yards is about 19 yards per game. I don't see him rushing 30 times this year, so that is going to mean #1 he is averaging over 10 ypc, and #2 that they are going to rush him 2 times per game. I don't see either being likely. I would project his carries to about 20 for the season. I anticipate him to catch more and run less.

Now for rec/rec yards. Last year 78 targets and 45 catches. 10.4 ypr. How many more targets are folks projecting? I know people want to say "he wasn't used in the first 8 games", but this is not true. He was playing and getting targets. So if you want to take the games he was playing full time (last 8), he got 54 targets and caught 29 of them. If he increases to 108 targets, at his catch rate that's 58 catches. And at his ypr that's 603 yards. People are predicting quite a jump IMO, hoping for him to improve on targets, catch rate, AND ypr. I think the most likely thing is targets, and even if you project him out to 120 targets, he needs 87 catches at his ypr rate OR improve his catch rate to 73% from 54% OR improve ypc from 10.4 to 13.8. Of course he could improve in 2 categories to make the leap, but it would still be substantial.

TDs are so flukey, I could see 11. But I could also see 5.

I just think you are asking a lot of this guy in this new offense, with these QBs, with AP who will get 300+ touches, and with a documented history of picking up the new offense slowly, to jump into 1200 yard 11 TD territory THIS season.

So, you decided to use Patterson's YPC of 10.4 last season but not use his YPR of 13.2? Pretty selective, no? Based on your own projection of 20 rushes he would put up 264 yds rushing based on his YPR last year.

You've also chosen an 8 game cut off to separate the numbers when it's clear that Patterson didn't really become more involved in the offense until after the bye week and starting with the Sea game. So, the divide of when he was given more touches/targets happened in the 9th game (giving him 7 games, not 8). This would give him an average of 7.14 targets and 1.4 carries per game. Prorated out to 114 targets and 23 carries for the season. This was despite the fact that he really wasn't even the WR1 on the team, Jennings was.

Regardless, last year is probably not the best gage for this year. We have a new QB, new coach and new system. Turner comes to town with a new offense and it's one that we know has been friendly to WR1s over the years. It does so without sacrificing RB production, either. So the fears of Peterson are misguided IMO. There is and will be enough to feed both guys and make fantasy owners very happy. The only thing that really matters is if Patterson will in fact be that WR1. To this, I say it looks pretty promising and there is no reason to believe he won't be at this point. So what have WR1s in Tuner's offense looked like the past 5 years? Well, let's take a look.

2013 - Gordon

159 targets, 87 rec., 1646 yds, 9 TDs, 14 games

2012 - Floyd

84 targets, 56 rec., 814 yds, 5 TDs, 14 games

2011 - Jackson

115 targets, 60 rec., 1106 yds, 9 TDs, 16 games

2010 - Floyd

77 targets, 37 rec., 717 yds, 6 TDs, 11 games

2009 - Jackson

107 targets, 68 rec., 1167 yds, 9 TDs, 15 games

Per game averages

7.7 targets, 4.4 rec., 78 yds, .53 TDs

Prorated season

123 targets, 70 rec., 1248 yds, 8.48 TDs

A couple of things to note. Gordon certainly sets the standard here for targets and would be the high benchmark. While Gordon may skew the targets a bit, the fact that all of the players in SD were fighting Gates for targets as well probably balances that out a good deal. While I like Rudolph, he's not Gates. So in the end, I think the target average plays out nicely. The most remarkable thing of note to me is the outstanding YPC of 17.8 that this group has managed. So, to you're question of Patterson improving on his 10.3 YPC I think it's not just likely to improve, but expected. Not just expected buy by a good amount as well. Will it match the 17.8 mark set here? Not likely. Patterson is still a work in progress and needs to prove he hips capable of such plays down field. Still, the fact remains that Turner likes to take shots with his WR1 and I see no reason Patterson will suddenly be an exception to that. Also of note is that most of this was done with Rivers at QB. I don't think we can expect that level of play from Minn at QB. Still, it's encouraging that Clev was as productive as they were with their toilet bowl group. The last note is that none of this includes rushing numbers at all. I agree that 20 carries is a safe and wise projection for Patterson in rushing attempts. Will he match his gaudy 13.2 YPR of last year? Highly doubtful. Still, I think a 10 YPR average is perfectly feasible.

Are we being optimistic on Patterson? Yeah I'd say so. Quite frankly given the opportunity that might be ahead for him, matched with his skill set, I see no reason to not be optimistic. I see more opportunity, better coaching and better QB play in his future. Maybe the price is a tad high. Like I said before though, I'd rather be on this bus than watch it roll by.

I do not think it is correct to assume that Patterson will be the number 1 WR target. I think it is more likely that will be Greg Jennings.

I did an evaluation of the target distribution in a Norv Turner offense for the past 3 seasons. I think using the same process but going back to 2004 would be a better sample size to use perhaps and if I have time I may do that yet at some point. But this is how the last 3 seasons broke down as I posted here- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=707689


3yr average % of passing distribution Norv Turner

WR1 .216
TE1 .177
WR2 .162
RB1 .123
SWR .119
FB .104
TE2 .045
3/4RB .036
WR4 .034

2013 1029plays 681pa 348ra 33.81%
2012 939plays 528pa 411ra 43.76% 411ra 43.76%
2011 1018plays 582pa 436ra(Qb26) 42.82%

The league average in rushing attempts the last 4 seasons has been about 435. So these totals are well below league average with only 2011 being close to the league average in rushing attempts. So I think that is useful for figuring out the distribution of targets, the Vikings are not likely to trade away Adrian Peterson 2 games into the season or throw the ball nearly as much as the Browns last season. At least I sure hope not.

This is my projection for the Vikings 2014 995plays 563pa 432ra (QB32) 43.41%run with Cassel starting. If Bridgewater starts 9+ games 527pa 468ra 47%run. This is based on teams usually leaning more on the run when starting a rookie QB.

The Vikings ran the ball 423 486 and 448 times the past 3 seasons. 452 times on average which is 102 more rushing attempts than the 2013 Browns.

I do not think the difference in talent between Jennings and Patterson is anything near the difference between Gordon and Greg Little. But I do think Jennings will get more targets in the passing game than Patterson will.

Using the passing distribution above as a guide I ended up with this for the receivers

Jennings 100-120-140tg (.587cmp%) 59-71-82rec 14.9ypc 879-1058-1224yds 8TD

Rudolph 80-100-120tg (.612cmp%) 49-61-73rec 9.7ypc 475-592-712yds 5-7TD

Patterson 70-90-110tg (.577cmp%) 45-53-63rec 10.4ypc 468-551-655yds 5-7TD 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds 1-3TD

Peterson 65-70-75tg (.715cmp%) 47-50-53rec 8.2ypc 386-411-435yds 1-2TD

Simpson 50-60-70tg (.505cmp%) 25-30-35rec 13.8ypc 348-414-488yds 2-4TD

McKinnon 50-60-70tg (.650cmp%) 32-39-45rec 7.7ypc 246-300-346yds 0-2TD

Ford/Leonard 25tg (.6cmp%) 15rec 181yds 0-1TD

Felton/Line/Ellison 20tg (.7cmp%) 14rec 6.2ypc 87yds

Wright 10-20tg (.608cmp%) 6-12rec 15.5ypc 94-141-188yds 2-3TD

I think people are under estimating the targets Rudolph/Peterson will get a bit and either McKinnon or another RB/FB getting 10% of the targets as well.

Now if you think Patterson will get that 10% on top of the WR2 targets? I could see that possibly or him getting a portion of that pie. I could also easily see him getting over the 10.4ypc I projected for him. I had that number at 13 at one point, but I reduced it after seeing the projected passing yards were too high
At 13ypc Patterson 70-90-110tg (.577cmp%) 45-53-63rec 13ypc 585-689-819yds 5-7TD 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds 1-3TD

I have been trying to keep my enthusiasm for this player in check since the Vikings drafted him. I think he still has a lot to learn and his full potential may not be reached until 2015. For most WR I would expect more of a 2nd year break out, but most of those players were further along in their craft as WRs than Patterson as well. So it may take him a little longer to reach that level. Especially if he is playing much of the year with a rookie QB.

In that scenario I projected Patterson for 70-85-100tg (.577cmp%) 45-49-58rec 10.4ypc 468-510-603yds 5-7TD 8-24ra 13.2ypc 106-211-317yds 1-3TD

 

[Biabreakable]

People still play non PPR? Anyways in PPR my guess is the above projections are still anticipated to be below Harvins career year.

Yes, people play standard leagues.Hence the term...standard.

Not everybody wants to award points on negative plays.

Oh you mean the 0.5% of pass completions that result in negative yardage? I see.

The issue with PPR is not just about receptions behind the LOS being awarded positive points or the rarity of that occuring.

The problem I have with this scoring system is that it double dips for something a player is already being awarded in yards and TD. You do not hear of many leagues that award points for pass completions or for rushing attempts. But PPR should be considered the normal universal scoring system?

What PPR does is cause players who are getting higher percentage targets score comparably with players who are less consistent but who tend to score more TD.

Originally PPR scoring was developed as a way to make WR score more competitively with RB who dominated FF scoring in the 80's and 90's. Now that the NFL has shifted to more of a passing league, the opportunity for WR compared to RB has been greatly in favor of WR. That gap keeps widening. To the point where they should be valued very close in standard leagues now, but causes the WR to be overvalued in PPR because of the compounding effect of double dipping the reception stats.

1 reception is worth as much as 10 yards. That is the main problem I have with it. If you wanted to give a value for making a reception it would make more sense if that action was worth 5 yards or 1 yard than 10. 10 is a 1st down. The leagues that award for 1st down receptions are perhaps better in this regard, because at least the double dipping only occurs on a reception that was worth a 1st down, which is more impactful than a reception that did not lead to a 1st down. But that is still double dipping. It is just that the amount of double dipping is more fairly priced.To even that out you would still need to award 1st downs thrown and run as well. Where it is even less fairly priced is in comparison to TD. In a standard league a player would need 60 yards to equal a TD. In PPR all they would need in 3 catches for 30 yards.

The easy solution to me is to play standard where all players are valued equally to each other for producing yards and TD. FF points would then always be based on real stats not stats that distort a players real value by relative comparison.

Playing PPR to me is asking me to devalue TD and yards. I do not like that at all.

 

[JPeso]

I haven't seen anything stating CP is the Vikings' WR1. Only that he will "be showcased" and "has figured out how to be a pro". Am I wrong about this? Please show me where the Vikings said "He's our top WR" or "he's our #1 WR". I'd like to see that.

Here's the most direct suggestion I've read on "Patterson is the #1". Agree or parse at your discretion:

Greg Jennings hands No. 1 receiver baton to Cordarrelle Patterson

Posted by Michael David Smith on June 23, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT

AP

Last year Greg Jennings led the Vikings with 68 catches and 804 receiving yards. This year, if all goes according to plan, it will beCordarrelle Patterson who serves as the teams top receiver. And Jennings welcomes that.

Jennings told ESPN.com that after talking with head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, he could see that the new coaching staff wants to make the talented Patterson the focal point of the passing game. Rather than grousing about having fewer passes thrown his way this year, Jennings has taken it upon himself to impress on Patterson that he needs to be ready to take a big step up in his second season.

I wanted him to know that, coming in, the expectation of you is no longer rookie.Its, You gotta go. We saw what you can do. Were gonna showcase this, Jennings said. For me, it was making sure that he understands that he has to be a professional. He has to be a pros pro when he steps foot in this building, because were expecting [him] to give us what weve seen you put out there.

Patterson wasnt always the most consistent player as a rookie, but he was dynamite with the ball in his hands: Among his touchdowns were a 79-yard reception, runs of 33, 35 and 50 yards, and kickoff returns of 105 and 109 yards. Jennings said Patterson needs to be given more opportunities to do that.

Im going to be honest: Once I saw him make a couple plays, Im like, Weve got to get him the ball. He does too much well for us not to get him the ball, Jennings said.

It could be said that more passes thrown to Patterson will mean fewer for Jennings, but Jennings isnt worried about that.

If Im having success, its going to open up the door for success for other guys, Jennings said. If Cordarrelles having success, its going to open up the door for a lot of other guys, as well.

Pattersons success (or lack thereof) will be a major part of the Vikings success (or lack thereof), and Jennings knows that part of his role as the veteran in the receiving corps is to pave the way for Patterson to take his place as the No. 1 receiver.

Apparently you stopped reading any post that don't agree with you a long time ago. You asked for this, got it and then chose to ignore it. I'm well aware there are people who believe Jennings is to still the WR1. Funny that Jennings doesn't seem to think he is, no?I never said that Patterson would equal his YPR from last year. I predicted a nice drop, actually.

You keep saying that Patterson doesn't have down field skills but isn't simply isn't true. He does and flashed those skills latest season as well as in college. He needs refining on his downfield route running. There is a difference.

You want to bet on 1200/11 as if it this the baseline we are talking about. I just flat out told you in that post that I fully acknowledge I/we are being optimistic. You are creating a stawman here.

If he really wanted to make a bet and put his balls on the line, he wouldn't set the over/under this high. Happy to bet someone $50 on CP having 1200 total yards and 8.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I haven't seen anything stating CP is the Vikings' WR1. Only that he will "be showcased" and "has figured out how to be a pro". Am I wrong about this? Please show me where the Vikings said "He's our top WR" or "he's our #1 WR". I'd like to see that.

Here's the most direct suggestion I've read on "Patterson is the #1". Agree or parse at your discretion:

Greg Jennings hands No. 1 receiver baton to Cordarrelle Patterson

Posted by Michael David Smith on June 23, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT

AP

Last year Greg Jennings led the Vikings with 68 catches and 804 receiving yards. This year, if all goes according to plan, it will beCordarrelle Patterson who serves as the teams top receiver. And Jennings welcomes that.

Jennings told ESPN.com that after talking with head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, he could see that the new coaching staff wants to make the talented Patterson the focal point of the passing game. Rather than grousing about having fewer passes thrown his way this year, Jennings has taken it upon himself to impress on Patterson that he needs to be ready to take a big step up in his second season.

I wanted him to know that, coming in, the expectation of you is no longer rookie.Its, You gotta go. We saw what you can do. Were gonna showcase this, Jennings said. For me, it was making sure that he understands that he has to be a professional. He has to be a pros pro when he steps foot in this building, because were expecting [him] to give us what weve seen you put out there.

Patterson wasnt always the most consistent player as a rookie, but he was dynamite with the ball in his hands: Among his touchdowns were a 79-yard reception, runs of 33, 35 and 50 yards, and kickoff returns of 105 and 109 yards. Jennings said Patterson needs to be given more opportunities to do that.

Im going to be honest: Once I saw him make a couple plays, Im like, Weve got to get him the ball. He does too much well for us not to get him the ball, Jennings said.

It could be said that more passes thrown to Patterson will mean fewer for Jennings, but Jennings isnt worried about that.

If Im having success, its going to open up the door for success for other guys, Jennings said. If Cordarrelles having success, its going to open up the door for a lot of other guys, as well.

Pattersons success (or lack thereof) will be a major part of the Vikings success (or lack thereof), and Jennings knows that part of his role as the veteran in the receiving corps is to pave the way for Patterson to take his place as the No. 1 receiver.

Apparently you stopped reading any post that don't agree with you a long time ago. You asked for this, got it and then chose to ignore it. I'm well aware there are people who believe Jennings is to still the WR1. Funny that Jennings doesn't seem to think he is, no?I never said that Patterson would equal his YPR from last year. I predicted a nice drop, actually.

You keep saying that Patterson doesn't have down field skills but isn't simply isn't true. He does and flashed those skills latest season as well as in college. He needs refining on his downfield route running. There is a difference.

You want to bet on 1200/11 as if it this the baseline we are talking about. I just flat out told you in that post that I fully acknowledge I/we are being optimistic. You are creating a stawman here.

If he really wanted to make a bet and put his balls on the line, he wouldn't set the over/under this high. Happy to bet someone $50 on CP having 1200 total yards and 8.

I didn't set the numbers. Did you read the previous posts?

I will happily take your bet (no return yards), because he will not get 1200 yards my friend.

 

[JPeso]

I haven't seen anything stating CP is the Vikings' WR1. Only that he will "be showcased" and "has figured out how to be a pro". Am I wrong about this? Please show me where the Vikings said "He's our top WR" or "he's our #1 WR". I'd like to see that.

Here's the most direct suggestion I've read on "Patterson is the #1". Agree or parse at your discretion:

Greg Jennings hands No. 1 receiver baton to Cordarrelle Patterson

Posted by Michael David Smith on June 23, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT

AP

Last year Greg Jennings led the Vikings with 68 catches and 804 receiving yards. This year, if all goes according to plan, it will beCordarrelle Patterson who serves as the teams top receiver. And Jennings welcomes that.

Jennings told ESPN.com that after talking with head coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, he could see that the new coaching staff wants to make the talented Patterson the focal point of the passing game. Rather than grousing about having fewer passes thrown his way this year, Jennings has taken it upon himself to impress on Patterson that he needs to be ready to take a big step up in his second season.

I wanted him to know that, coming in, the expectation of you is no longer rookie.Its, You gotta go. We saw what you can do. Were gonna showcase this, Jennings said. For me, it was making sure that he understands that he has to be a professional. He has to be a pros pro when he steps foot in this building, because were expecting [him] to give us what weve seen you put out there.

Patterson wasnt always the most consistent player as a rookie, but he was dynamite with the ball in his hands: Among his touchdowns were a 79-yard reception, runs of 33, 35 and 50 yards, and kickoff returns of 105 and 109 yards. Jennings said Patterson needs to be given more opportunities to do that.

Im going to be honest: Once I saw him make a couple plays, Im like, Weve got to get him the ball. He does too much well for us not to get him the ball, Jennings said.

It could be said that more passes thrown to Patterson will mean fewer for Jennings, but Jennings isnt worried about that.

If Im having success, its going to open up the door for success for other guys, Jennings said. If Cordarrelles having success, its going to open up the door for a lot of other guys, as well.

Pattersons success (or lack thereof) will be a major part of the Vikings success (or lack thereof), and Jennings knows that part of his role as the veteran in the receiving corps is to pave the way for Patterson to take his place as the No. 1 receiver.

Apparently you stopped reading any post that don't agree with you a long time ago. You asked for this, got it and then chose to ignore it. I'm well aware there are people who believe Jennings is to still the WR1. Funny that Jennings doesn't seem to think he is, no?I never said that Patterson would equal his YPR from last year. I predicted a nice drop, actually.

You keep saying that Patterson doesn't have down field skills but isn't simply isn't true. He does and flashed those skills latest season as well as in college. He needs refining on his downfield route running. There is a difference.

You want to bet on 1200/11 as if it this the baseline we are talking about. I just flat out told you in that post that I fully acknowledge I/we are being optimistic. You are creating a stawman here.

If he really wanted to make a bet and put his balls on the line, he wouldn't set the over/under this high. Happy to bet someone $50 on CP having 1200 total yards and 8.

I didn't set the numbers. Did you read the previous posts?

I will happily take your bet (no return yards), because he will not get 1200 yards my friend.

No return yards needed. You have a deal.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Vikings

Both Matt Cassel and Vikings OC Norv Turner are praising Cordarrelle Patterson's route-running improvement.

Route limitations forced ex-OC Bill Musgrave to utilize Patterson as a gadget player on offense last year. Cassel cited Patterson's "route-running and his ability to recognize defense" as areas where he's made the most progress. "I think from Day 1 to now he's improved as a route runner," added Turner. "He's been very serious about working as a route runner." Patterson's breakout potential is unfortunately already built into his early fifth-round ADP. He'll be a boom-or-bust fantasy pick.

Source: FOX Sports Minnesota

Jul 4 - 1:31 PM

 

[Bob Magaw]

Patterson's rare elusiveness to get in the open field for a 6'2", 220 lb. WR stands out, but the extra gear once he gets there to just destroy pursuit and rocket past multiple defenders that should have had the angle roars off the screen.

 

[JPeso]

Patterson's rare elusiveness to get in the open field for a 6'2", 220 lb. WR stands out, but the extra gear once he gets there to just destroy pursuit and rocket past multiple defenders that should have had the angle roars off the screen.

"Rocketman" starring Cordarrelle Patterson

 

[Steed]

Cordarelle The Rocketeer? Has a nice flow to it

 

[DropKick]

Lots of people doubting him and I honestly can't figure out why. Did these doubters not watch him in late Nov/Dec when he actually had a chance to touch the ball??

Love Patterson... two biggest concerns is quality of QB play and still developing as a WR. He came into the league pretty raw.

 

[Archer]

Any qb on an nfl roster can make a handoff or throw a bubble screen or 5-10 yard pass. That's all Patterson needs from his QB. Anything else further downfield is just gravy IMO.

 

[Grahamburn]

Any qb on an nfl roster can make a handoff or throw a bubble screen or 5-10 yard pass. That's all Patterson needs from his QB. Anything else further downfield is just gravy IMO.

He'll need to be able to do a lot more than take a handoff or catch a screen to justify a 5th round ADP. Defenses will start to sniff those plays out rather quickly.

 

[Faust]

Cordarrelle Patterson: I'll be a 'top-5 playmaker' in '14

 

[Lt. Bardolph]

Lots of people doubting him and I honestly can't figure out why. Did these doubters not watch him in late Nov/Dec when he actually had a chance to touch the ball??

It's bewildering to me as well. As everyone knows the key to winning is identifying middle round breakout players you can pair with your early round studs. Sometimes those breakout candidates are hard to identify; sometimes they're pretty easy. It doesn't get any easier than this one.

In their defense, not many are doubting his potential to breakout this year. It sounds like the skepticism surrounds his upside.

His current ADP is roughly WR20, about the 6th or 7th round. Last year's WR20 was TY Hilton, who had about 1,000 yards and 5 TDs. Getting 40% of the snaps last year, Patterson had over 600 total yards and 7 TDs (not including returns). If he does nothing more than what he did last year, that's already WR20 territory.

Considering he was the 5th ranked receiver in fantasy last year in points per snap, I just don't know how anyone can argue that his production is not going to improve dramatically given full-time work. Doubt the QB? OK, but CP is not QB-dependent. Question his ability to run routes? His routes have improved, but he's not that kind of receiver anyway. I hear so many (even his advocates) use the Turner/Gordon model to gauge his upside. CP is nothing like Josh Gordon. Rather, he's what every fantasy player hoped Percy Harvin would be.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Though not as polished a receiver, like Percy Harvin, you are basically getting a WR with elite, extremely dangerous return skills once he has the ball in his hands in the open field. Like a RB, which Harvin was primarily at Florida, they clearly have special vision/instincts and see the field very well (perhaps better than many RBs).

Also like Harvin, Patterson boosted his scoring (in the last five games) in non-traditional ways. While that stretch jumps out as unsustainable (6 TDs last 5 games, #1 WR last month), what are his prospects in the TD department, in many cases a notoriously unreliable year-to-year stat to hang your dynasty hat on? I think many NFL WRs have the speed but not the moves to make explosive big plays consistently, or vice verce. Harvin and Patterson clearly have both. There are times they only need to make one defender miss (or break a tackle) and they are off to the races. Patterson can make defenders miss.

As to the Matson reference in the below article, this could merely suggest historically there haven't been a lot of kick returners at least 6'2", 215 lbs. (though certainly some). The second quote addresses why there may be a reason for that. Patterson's almost unprecedented ability to break down defenders in space and string together moves at 6'2", 220 lbs. like a player 30-40 lbs. smaller is a big part of what makes him so rare.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/going-to-be-a-top-five-nfl-playmaker-cordarrelle-patterson-already-is/

"In league history, only two players 6-foot-2 or taller and at least 215 pounds have returned two kicks for touchdowns in a season. One is Patterson. The other is Ollie Matson, who did it for the Chicago Cardinals four times in the 1950s. He also happens to be in the Hall of Fame. Men who move like Cordarrelle Patterson do not look like Cordarrelle Patterson."

"Patterson’s best weapon isn’t his speed (although at 4.42 in the 40, he has plenty). It’s how easily he makes tacklers crumble. Wiggle isn’t a rare trait for great kick returners, but it is rare for someone who measures 6-foot-2 and nearly 220 pounds. Patterson can put his foot in the ground and stop his entire body, seemingly mid-stride, in the same way Devin Hester could. The difference is that Hester has less body to stop. The way Patterson changes direction at his size defies laws of nature."

* Dynasty top 5 WRs Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant have SOME size, skill set and pedigree similarities, so it might be instructive to look at their respective career arc's at a comparable stage of development.

Thomas (6'3", 230 lbs.) - 1.22 in 2010

Bryant (6'2", 222 lbs.) - 1.24 in 2010

Patterson (6'2", 220 lbs.) 1.31 in 2013

Thomas and Bryant, with Harvin, are among the best WRs in the game as far as their RAC ability. Thomas came from Georgia Tech (like Calvin Johnson), so for scheme reasons, he came out far from a finished product when it came to his hands and route running, but was drafted for his prototypical physical and athletic upside, and he did develop his receiving skills and got better and better. Thomas was recovering from a broken foot during the pre-draft process and I'm not sure if he was even able to get in a pro day or personal workout for a 40 time or VJ measure. Based on games, he looks like he would have run a 4.4 or even sub-4.4. With Bryant, don't know if it was due to injury or by choice, but I don't think he participated in the 2010 combine, either. His personal workout was by many accounts at least in some ways disappointing, he looked unprepared, had conditioning issues, didn't finish some drills, though he did have an exceptional VJ. As to his field speed, I don't think his top speed is as good as Thomas, but he has outstanding burst and short area quickness. He entered the league with a resume as a prolific WR at Oklahoma State (before Justin Blackmon) and was a more accomplished pass catcher. Bryant has insanely good body control, hands and acrobatic ball skills, among the best in the league (with Larry Fitzgerald).

Thomas (2010) 22-283-2 in just 10 games with two starts, he was probably delayed due to the foot injury. In 2011, he was 32-551-4, but only played in 11 games with five starts, rupturing his Achilles tendon early in that off-season. In fairness, he had Tebow as his starting QB for 11 games in 2011.

Bryant (2010) 45-561-6 in 12 games with two starts.

Patterson (2013) 45-469-4 receiving, 12-158-3 rushing in 16 games with five starts.

** Patterson was the third WR taken in 2013, but in retrospect, perhaps he should have been first. Some are higher on Hopkins, and if Patterson never improves as a WR, that may prove right. But if Patterson improves, imo he has vastly superior explosiveness and playmaking ability. Frank Coyle had Patterson as the #1 WR last year, and using Bryant as a comp (they are approximately the same size and both have great RAC skills) got my attention. Though I would reiterate/emphasize Patterson is not comparable to Bryant in terms of his hands, route running and pure RECEIVING SKILLS, even with the "at a comparable stage of development" qualifier.

 

[Lt. Bardolph]

** Patterson was the third WR taken in 2013, but in retrospect, perhaps he should have been first.

Good read. Keep in mind that CP was considered by almost everyone to be the best WR in the draft before he interviewed poorly at the combine and people started nitpicking his big school inexperience. Vikings were very lucky two years in a row now. You'll be seeing Bridgewater to Patterson on Sportscenter for years to come.

 

[Faust]

Making the Leap, No. 1: Vikings' Cordarrelle Patterson

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000364423/article/making-the-leap-no-1-vikings-cordarrelle-patterson

 

[DeaLerZ]

I do not understand why so many people are negative about Patterson's potential. It's not like we are expecting a Josh Gordon type season for Cordarrelle Patterson in year 2, but if there was a player that seems to fit the mold for a year #2 WR with breakout potential it is him. I would not be suprised if he reaches 1500 total yds rush/rec, and 10 tds, not to mention what he showed us last year that he can do in the return game. Look at the film on the guy, he clearly passes the eye ball test, has great play making ability after the catch, and elite break away speed.

You don't think the reason the Vikings are saying they are going to feature this guy has anything to do with what they were able to sit down and look at his film from last year?? He obviously was a game changer when they started making a point to put the ball in his hands. If you are doubting this guy at all this year, than I just feel bad for you. Anyone who knows anything about fantasy football knows that usually year 3, and if they are elite top WR's in the league than year 2 is often when we begin to see a huge difference. Don't wait til next year to findout that he is going to be a great WR. Isn't that the point of reading these forums?

Not to say that he is going to reach Josh Gordon's numbers by any means.. but a 2nd year player who has great play making ability, and not to mention the best RB in the league to keep Defenses honest, and coaches and players that have said Patterson will be a huge part of the offense this year sounds very similar to the situation Gordon was in last year. It is a recipe for a break out year when you combine that with the film we have seen from last year.

Come on... just be smart and draft him especially in Keeper/Dynasty leagues so you can have him for a looooong time to come

 

[Eminence]

Currently, he is the 20th WR off the board in the late 4th / early 5th. It's likely he ends up being somebody's WR2 which I would be veryyy unsure of.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Currently, he is the 20th WR off the board in the late 4th / early 5th. It's likely he ends up being somebody's WR2 which I would be veryyy unsure of.

Who are the 3 above him and the 3 after?

 

[Eminence]

Currently, he is the 20th WR off the board in the late 4th / early 5th. It's likely he ends up being somebody's WR2 which I would be veryyy unsure of.

Who are the 3 above him and the 3 after?

Wes Welker

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Cordarelle Patterson

Michael Crabtree

Roddy White

Desean Jackson

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Currently, he is the 20th WR off the board in the late 4th / early 5th. It's likely he ends up being somebody's WR2 which I would be veryyy unsure of.

Who are the 3 above him and the 3 after?

Wes Welker

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Cordarelle Patterson

Michael Crabtree

Roddy White

Desean Jackson

As far as PPR I dont see him any more riskey than anyone else on the list. I really like Harvin this season though

 

[Ted Mullins]

Currently, he is the 20th WR off the board in the late 4th / early 5th. It's likely he ends up being somebody's WR2 which I would be veryyy unsure of.

Who are the 3 above him and the 3 after?

Wes Welker

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Cordarelle Patterson

Michael Crabtree

Roddy White

Desean Jackson

I think I'd prefer Patterson to any of those guys right now...I also still think you can grab Jennings late to hedge if you are worried about Patterson, although people may not take someone that early if they feel the need to hedge.

I think it's possible Patterson's ADP keeps going up if the positive press keeps coming in.

 

[Bob Magaw]

For dynasty purposes, if he starts the first 4-5 games of the 2014 season anything like how he finished the last 4-5 games of 2013 (and he figures to see a greatly expanded role, increasing the chance of that happening), his value could surge quickly.

Cassell may be a common thread in his early developement. He is listed with six starts last year, played a lot in weeks 4 & 5, than not again until finishing up the last five games (which maybe not coincidentally, exactly overlapped and coincided with the timing of Patterson's emergence and breakout). MIN was 4-3 in those seven games. Ponder wasn't very good. If Bridgewater proves more talented and eventually supplants Cassell as the starting QB, that could also bode well for his long range projection.

 

[Touchdown There]

Webcam of the Vikings stadium. No official home stadium + transition QB + Greg Jennings + tough conference. I think the Vikings offense will be bottom of the barrel this year, very few touchdowns and wins. I do like Patterson as a talent, but no way I would take him as wr2.

 

[Ted Mullins]

The conference is pretty solid but all of the other teams were more high scoring and not particularly good defensively last year...I would not hold the conference against him at all personally. Other concerns are valid IMO.

 

[Bob Magaw]

The conference is pretty solid but all of the other teams were more high scoring and not particularly good defensively last year...I would not hold the conference against him at all personally. Other concerns are valid IMO.

Good point.

DET, GB and CHI are not exactly a murderer's row of stop units.

As to the transition QB, imo this is more of an issue if Bridgewater takes over quickly. Otherwise, as noted, his breakout coincided with Cassel starting the last five games (not necessarily just because of that - they started giving Patterson more carries, etc.).

I've also seen being outside the confines of the dome as a negative, which is interesting for a few reasons. Within the division, DET is a dome team, but they were already playing outdoors in the fall and winter at times at GB and CHI. Maybe the experience will make them "weather-hardened" for other late season games. It is a level playing field, and the opponents will have to deal with it, too. Back in the day, when MIN was going to the Super Bowl (albeit not winning), I thought they actually had an advantage over warm weather teams. Later, I think it was TB, for an example, that had a bad record in very cold weather games. Of course, if the offense is facing blizzard conditions, that probably isn't conducive to massive passing numbers that day. But when I think of some of the top QBs, Brady and Rodgers come immediately to mind as having thrived in adverse weather (not to say Cassel is them, just that it is possible), Manning was in a dome for most of his career but has thrived in DEN where it gets cold. I've heard skill position players say they think they have an advantage in bad weather, because they know where they are going, and footing becomes more of a problem for the defender who has to react and redirect quickly to what the RB or WR is doing. In the BAL game with the crazy ending, Patterson completely turned around and tripped up safety Matt Elam (maybe he will turn out to be the snow equivalent of a "mudder" in horse racing parlance). I view Jennings (and Rudolph) as positives. Some WRs thrive as the only weapon on pure volume, but with Patterson, I think quality as well as quantity of touches will be important. When it comes to secondaries defending Patterson, space is the enemy. Peterson creates space because defense still stack the box, understandably. Jennings and Rudolph, if they force the defense to account for them, will also help create space for Patterson.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

 

[steveski]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

 

[jurb26]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

 

[meatwad1]

This guy is a fourth round steal....I would take him in the third if I didn't like what I see.

Every year, new players emerge and it takes a little foresight to make those calls. I think it will be safe to say this guy is going to end up as a stud.

 

[steveski]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Wind is similar to heavy rain or snow in that it would make it very difficult or impossible to throw the ball deep. I don't see it limiting screen passes or other quick 10 yard passes. Poor weather like that can hurt the QB and most traditional WRs, but at the same time it helps the run game and guys like Patterson who are basically rbs at the WR position.

I'd imagine if/when the Vikings play in poor weather this season it will basically be Peterson and Patterson all day long.

Remind me to bet on the Vikings in poor weather.

 

[Eminence]

The only real concern you should have is whether or not Patterson can absorb a high volume of hits. Being that he's going to see a variety of screens and handoffs, you've got to worry about a few decent sized lineman and linebackers getting a clean shot on him because he touches the ball so close to the line of scrimmage.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

Anybody care to take a look at the numbers of Stafford, Johnson, Foles, and Jackson from that game? Or are we going to just keep making up things like "offenses do well in the snow/poor weather", using that game as the example? He's going to have to do more than catch 5 screens per game to put up numbers in crap weather.

 

[Eminence]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

I don't really understand how McCoy was able to dominate so much. It actually seems like McCoy could be the man in Buffalo. You've got to think Spiller has similar potential.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

Anybody care to take a look at the numbers of Stafford, Johnson, Foles, and Jackson from that game? Or are we going to just keep making up things like "offenses do well in the snow/poor weather", using that game as the example?He's going to have to do more than catch 5 screens per game to put up numbers in crap weather.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=331208021

I think the idea was the McCoy/Patterson comparison (quickness/elusiveness), as McCoy was awesome in that game. Outside of McCoy and a decent game for Joique (with 2 fumbles) the offensive stats for both sides in that game are pretty bad. I still think indoors is preferable for someone relying on speed/agility, but that's not happening for Patterson this year obviously.

I know they've said they are going to feature Patterson and he definitely looks incredible with the ball in his hands, but I still think it's risky to assume that Norv will feed him a bunch of short routes/screens. Seems like that'd require a pretty big shift from what Norv has done previously with his WR1s. Patterson will need to be able to make catches downfield - he has the speed/size to do it for sure, but we didn't get to see him do it much last year.

 

[steveski]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

Anybody care to take a look at the numbers of Stafford, Johnson, Foles, and Jackson from that game? Or are we going to just keep making up things like "offenses do well in the snow/poor weather", using that game as the example?He's going to have to do more than catch 5 screens per game to put up numbers in crap weather.

QBs and traditional WRs struggle in poor conditions. It's impossible to throw the ball deep down the field. Running the ball and throwing very short passes is all you can do. Patterson is far from a typical receiver. The knock on him is that he isn't a traditional downfield threat. Getting him the ball in space is where he's deadly.

Usually with most short passes all you have to do is make the first guy miss and you have a 10+ yard gain. That one guy is the difference between a loss and a 10+ yard gain. If he got 5 screen passes, I'd bet he makes the first guy miss on 3 of them in poor conditions. One or two of those he makes the next guy miss and it's a TD or a very big gain.

I'm not saying he's going to be put up better numbers in terrible conditions than he is in good conditions. I'm saying that terrible conditions shouldn't affect him as much as it would other WR's.

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

I don't really understand how McCoy was able to dominate so much. It actually seems like McCoy could be the man in Buffalo. You've got to think Spiller has similar potential.

I have no clue what you are trying to say.

 

[jurb26]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

Anybody care to take a look at the numbers of Stafford, Johnson, Foles, and Jackson from that game? Or are we going to just keep making up things like "offenses do well in the snow/poor weather", using that game as the example? He's going to have to do more than catch 5 screens per game to put up numbers in crap weather.

This isn't true. You can go ahead and search this topic if you want. It's been debunked many times and here is one example of a study done to to do so. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=616952

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

Anybody care to take a look at the numbers of Stafford, Johnson, Foles, and Jackson from that game? Or are we going to just keep making up things like "offenses do well in the snow/poor weather", using that game as the example? He's going to have to do more than catch 5 screens per game to put up numbers in crap weather.

This isn't true. You can go ahead and search this topic if you want. It's been debunked many times and here is one example of a study done to to do so. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=616952

So that game is an outlier? Not saying I completely disagree. I just think Cassel has enough problems throwing indoors. When guys like Stafford and Manning (Super Bowl) are throwing ducks in cold and snowy weather, why would we think a below average QB (or rookie) can get the ball to his WRs?

 

[jurb26]

Didn't even realize they were playing outside this year...personally does not sway me on Patterson much but dome would definitely be preferable IMO for a guy like him.

I actually think their QB play will be at least decent with either Cassel or Bridgewater. My concern is still the obvious one - the fact that Norv seems to pretty heavily favor one receiver in his offense, and that receiver usually runs a lot of deep routes. For whatever reason, Patterson did not run those deep routes last year, so either he needs to be able to do so this year, or Norv needs to adjust. If the buzz out of Vikes camp keeps coming and he eventually creeps up into the top 10-12 WRs by ADP I think he will be very risky there - his upside is huge but seems like his downside could be too.

One of his biggest plays last year was in the snow. If anything, I think guys with elite vision and elite moves benefit from poor conditions. Look what McCoy did in the snow fest last year. Imagine trying to tackle a guy like Patterson or McCoy when you don't have a good grip on the ground and your hands are slippery. I can see how it's more difficult to throw the ball, but thats why the 10 yard screen passes and gadget plays are perfect.

Bad weather favors the offense. Playing outside is a very poor reason to downgrade Patterson or any other Vike. Wind is the exception. Wind can effect the passing game.

Good points, I was not going to hold it against Patterson much if at all anyways, just didn't realize they'd be outdoors this year. I watched that Eagles vs Lions in the snow game, was insane.

Anybody care to take a look at the numbers of Stafford, Johnson, Foles, and Jackson from that game? Or are we going to just keep making up things like "offenses do well in the snow/poor weather", using that game as the example? He's going to have to do more than catch 5 screens per game to put up numbers in crap weather.

This isn't true. You can go ahead and search this topic if you want. It's been debunked many times and here is one example of a study done to to do so. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=616952

So that game is an outlier? Not saying I completely disagree. I just think Cassel has enough problems throwing indoors. When guys like Stafford and Manning (Super Bowl) are throwing ducks in cold and snowy weather, why would we think a below average QB (or rookie) can get the ball to his WRs?

I don't know if there have been any studies done to see if particular players are more prone to struggle in harsh weather. There could be some truth to that but I've just not seen it. I'd also say the game in Philly was a bit of an exception IMO. Weather is rarely going to be THAT bad. We may not see conditions like that in the next 5 years.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I'm just still bitter from the nor'easter storm in 2007 that derailed Brady to Moss against the Jets, and doomed countless teams' hopes at titles.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Vikings
Vikings OC Norv Turner is reportedly interested in getting Cordarrelle Patterson the ball "as much as he can."
There's nothing new here. As soon as Turner was hired back in February, he put in 10 plays for Patterson and then proceeded to move the explosive playmaker all over the formation during offseason workouts. We know there's going to be a concerted effort to manufacture touches for Patterson, the only question is if his route-running has improved enough to warrant a "go-to guy" kind of role. It's something worth watching very closely during camp, as C-Patt has the natural ability to be a weekly difference-maker.


Source: ESPN.com
Jul 17 - 10:27 AM

 

[LawFitz]

Mid-3rd round pick in most drafts by late August IMO, if he breaks a long one in preseason. One highlight play is going to send people into panic mode.

 

[steveski]

Mid-3rd round pick in most drafts by late August IMO, if he breaks a long one in preseason. One highlight play is going to send people into panic mode.

I could see the opposite happening too. No big plays in preseason and people get scared and he falls.

That's what I'm hoping for at least.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Patterson's 3 rushing TDs were the most for a WR since the merger. Patterson had one less rushing TD than Harvin has in five years (or three in a half, since he didn't play the last one and a half), in his last five GAMES.

He may have been the only player in the league last year to score three ways (via receiving, rushing and kick return), and I think in 2012 was the only player for several (four?) years in college to score four ways (also punt return).