I agree, I have always had a tendency to go WR early. Seems like I never get top picks, whether by luck of the draw or by making the playoffs. Throw in some keepers and I just feel much more comfortable picking the top QBs/WRs that seem like locks to finish near the top vs. reaching for RBs that are hit or miss. I think 2011 in one draft was the only time I went RB-RB-RB and I ended up with CJ1K, McFadden and Felix Jones. According to the rankings it seemed pretty solid and with the flex I thought I was OK. Well, McFadden did well until his mid-season injury and CJ1K was mediocre and Felix sucked. I only made the championship game because I grabbed Harvin and Gronk late and they tore it up at the end of the year. Needless to say, RB-RB-RB is not my style.
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RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter prgromek
- Start date
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Means nothing unless you are drafting in the FPC. You have to know how your own league drafts.
I went RB/RB/RB once, thought it looked awesome, ended up not so great.
2007
I forget the order but I had Rudi Johnson (1,300+ rushing yards and 12 rushing TD's three years in a row before that), Larry Johnson (1,750+ rushing yards and 17+ rushing TD's 2 and 3 years before, coming back from injury) and Travis Henry (1,200 + rushing yards the year prior)
How did they finish that season? Travis Henry had 691 rushing yards. Rudi Johnson had 497. Larry did better, he had...874 rushing yards.
Oh, and last year in a league I went MJD/DMC/SJax.
Thank God I traded DMC + some WR for Calvin Johnson in the pre-season.
2007
I forget the order but I had Rudi Johnson (1,300+ rushing yards and 12 rushing TD's three years in a row before that), Larry Johnson (1,750+ rushing yards and 17+ rushing TD's 2 and 3 years before, coming back from injury) and Travis Henry (1,200 + rushing yards the year prior)
How did they finish that season? Travis Henry had 691 rushing yards. Rudi Johnson had 497. Larry did better, he had...874 rushing yards.
Oh, and last year in a league I went MJD/DMC/SJax.
Thank God I traded DMC + some WR for Calvin Johnson in the pre-season.
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Exactly.
Calvin, AJ, Dez, and Julio will be top 10 WRs, barring severe injury. RBs have a much higher bust rate.
Now, scarcity of RBs over WRs knocks the elite RB value over these guys, but I only take an elite RB that either has a super high floor (AP/Martin) or truly earthshattering upside (Charles/Spiller/McCoy) ahead of them.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
How were none of these guys held onto in a 2 keeper league and only 3 top RBs? And why would you keep Sproles over Brees? You even say you won last year by picking Brees and think he'll be gone by your pick, so why not keep him and cut Sproles and pick Sproles as he should be there?
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
And in regards to the posts above about going RB/RB/RB, first of all, it totally depends on who you pick. You guys picked busts, so yeah, its not going to work when that happens. Also, I dont think anyone is condoning going RB in the first 3 rounds. BPA is one thing, but you are spreading yourself too thin to start a draft. Not to mention when looking at this year, if you go RB in the first 2 rounds, I dont think you would want/be worried about taking the guys that are going in the 3rd. Im probably going to be going RB/RB more often than not this year based on ADP and positional depth at QB and WR. My leagues are start 2 RB/2 WR/2 flexes though so RBs are quite valuable. Lineups and roster size are also obviously big on how many RBs you should/need to take early.
LOL, sorry, pretty simple, you can't keep people drafted in the 1st two rounds and keepers are done by draft round. Keeping Sproles for an 8th and Morris for a 17th. Also, you can only keep players for 2 years after the first year you draft them, so great players get back into the pool pretty quickly. ADP was drafted in round 2 last year, so he couldn't be kept either.
The catch here, of course, is that busts are more likely at the RB position due to the high turnover. It's the nature of the beast.Kenny Powers said:
And luck plays a big part, but man, getting burned picking 3 RB's out of the gate (for me they could all start as it was 2RB + a flex) and having ALL of them bust just sucks out loud so freaking bad. Taking a safer position like QB or even WR starts to look good after that happens to you.
League rules obviously have a huge impact. That said, there are lots of posts about going RB/RB/RB. We all did pick busts, but I think that happens because of that strategy. Going that method to me means you aren't going BPA and if you aren't doing that I would bet statistics would bear it out that the bust rate is higher.Kenny Powers said:
Barring injury, there is no way anyone could convince me that barring injury Graham won't be top 2, Rodgers, Brees and maybe Manning won't be top 5 and Bryant, Marshall, Jones, Thomas and Green won't be top 10. The RBs after the top tier taken around the same as these guys are not guys that you can say barring injury will be top 15. The top tier RBs are solid in my mind, but I think this year, those guys are all top 10 picks with maybe Calvin and possibly Rodgers/Brees before pick 12. I love the turn in the one league where I know my draft slot already because I know 2 stud WRs will be there for the picking to go with my kept RBs.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Yeah, but as good as starting out with something like AJ Green/Rodgers/Cruz may sound its very difficult to find RBs you can start on a weekly basis if you havent taken one in the first few rounds, if not first 2 rounds because the RBs going in the 3rd I expect to be hit or miss as well due to how many RBs are going early. Now I would think one or maybe two of the Miller, Bell, Ball, Mathews, Ivory will have a nice year, but its a gamble on picking the right one. Even then, if one of them, heck even really if any of the RBs going in the 3rd is my RB1, Im not feeling too good about my team.
As for the high RB position turnover, these are the players going in the first 2 rounds:
AD, Foster, Martin, Charles, Lynch, Spiller, Rice, McCoy, Trent, Morris, Forte, SJax, CJ2K, Ridley
Which of these guys is going to bust? Thats what different this year compared to last year as someone mentioned earlier, as DMC, Mathews, Murray, etc were 1st round picks. This year, these guys either all have track records and minimal/1 major injury histories, or are 2nd year players with strong rookie seasons/high pedigree/workhorse backs. Really the only guy who doesnt fit either of those is Morris since he was a late pick. Maybe he is the bust, but he looked damn good last year, theres no reason to think he wont get around as many touches, and if RG3 is behind center I think he will be fine.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I guess everyone drafts differently, but if I go RB/RB or RB/RB/RB its because that is the BPA, or there is a big dropoff/tier difference if I dont take a RB with a certain pick. Do people really plan on going RB/RB regardless of how the draft goes and take RBs for the hell of it?! I guess the people who lose might.
2nd paragraph, I see what youre saying, but even based on the players you mention I dont think Dez, Julio, or Demaryius are Top 10 locks barring injury. They may be amongst the most likely to finish Top 10 besides Megatron, but theyre hardly locks IMO each for different reasons. I said how I feel about the RBs going first 2 rounds in my last post so I wont rehash that, but youre drafting strategy for a keeper league is different when you already have a RB1 (Morris) and RB2 (Sproles) on your roster. It isnt hard to love going WR/WR when thats the case.
See that's just it you throwing out names because they seem like more of a sure thing and less questionable than last year, it DOES NOT MATTER THE NAMES OF THE RB!! This is not something new it's been going in for yrs go look at the last 5-7 yrs odds are of the top 10 RB 4-5 of them WILL NOT MAKE THE TOP 10 THE NEXT SEASON! It never fails so while we are drafting these 10 RB in the first rd know that 4 of you are gonna have a RB who does not perform up to Draft position.
So which 4 we don't know but we do know we haven't had a RB repeat as #1 in 6 yrs odds are there won't be a repeat this yr. odds say that most RB have a significant drop off after a 2000 yd season FANTASY FOOTBALL is gambling when gambling dont you play the best odds?
I think fantasy football drafts are more of a follow the crowd thing most of the time. What draft do you participate in where people don't refer to ADP when they make their picks? Who hasn't bought into the common wisdom that the pool of talent at QB and WR is deep, so it is "smart" to wait on them?
Maybe what we'll realize from all of this is that leagues that start 2 RBs along with teams not having a bell cow back force us to reach the conclusion that we need to secure RBs to fill those spots? Requiring 2 starting RBs forces scarcity at the position and makes acquiring the bell cow backs essential.
Would this year's conventional wisdom to load up at RB early still be followed if lineups required 1 RB? If PPR was set at .25 per catch for RB, .5 per catch for WR, 1.0 per catch for TE?
Anyway, my advice is that you don't draft anyone with a high ADP who is going to be injured and miss the season. I think this will help you more than grabbing RBs early.
Maybe what we'll realize from all of this is that leagues that start 2 RBs along with teams not having a bell cow back force us to reach the conclusion that we need to secure RBs to fill those spots? Requiring 2 starting RBs forces scarcity at the position and makes acquiring the bell cow backs essential.
Would this year's conventional wisdom to load up at RB early still be followed if lineups required 1 RB? If PPR was set at .25 per catch for RB, .5 per catch for WR, 1.0 per catch for TE?
Anyway, my advice is that you don't draft anyone with a high ADP who is going to be injured and miss the season. I think this will help you more than grabbing RBs early.
There's a big difference between taking 3 RB's in the first three rounds, and taking 0.
I have relatively high picks in most of my leagues this year (4, 2, 4 yet to go) and I will most likely go RB/WR/WR, unless I can get Graham in the late 2nd or a pretty good RB falls. I'd rather take Demaryius Thomas with 2.11 than Chris Johnson (I think...).
We Tigers
Footballguy
I think this a commonly misstated point for a few reasons. RB vs. WR isn't really about odds.About half of the previous year's top ten running backs do drop out of the top ten, but some of those aren't drafted as top ten backs anyway. The other factor is that many of these dropouts are due to injury. Let's look at the top ten dropouts from 2011 to 2012 as one example.
There were six 2011 top ten backs who didn't repeat in 2012: MJD, McCoy, Mathews, and Sproles all missed between 3 and 10 games due to injury. Along with Sproles, neither of the other two dropouts--Michael Bush and Michael Turner--were drafted as top ten backs.
If you go back to the six 2011 dropouts from 2010, you see similar results: Charles, Forte, McFadden, and Hillis missed between 4 and 15 games due to injury. Mendenhall and Chris Johnson were that draft's legit disappointments, playing 15 and 16 games and just not getting it done.
Really, all this means to me is something we already know: because of the nature of what the position does, running backs are the fantasy players most susceptible to injury. While 7 WRs dropped out from 2010 to 2011, only Andre Johnson, Jennings, and Nicks were due to injury, and several others weren't drafted as top ten receivers by ADP. Same situation last year: 6 dropouts, but only 2 due to injury.
By saying "I don't draft first and second round RBs because WRs are safer," you're actually saying "I have low risk tolerance for injuries, which means I have less preference for RBs, the most injured position." The difference in your odds of being disappointed by an early pick of WR or RB are pretty negligible. The real difference between WR and RB dropouts is that a top ten WR dropout is more likely to give you 16 games of ~WR20-30ish production while an RB dropout is probably going to miss games. I dislike both of those situations about equally, so I don't let a strict position strategy define my early rounds.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
its all about knowing your league scoring and leaguemates tendencies.
RB to me looks super deep this year and Ive been a WR/QB early guy for awhile now especially in PPR
RB to me looks super deep this year and Ive been a WR/QB early guy for awhile now especially in PPR
I understand what you are trying to get across here, but not sure you are following me. I never said you had to forgo the RB for WR what I was pointing out was that instead of jumping in on the end of a RB run at the end if the first i think the better odds are to consider drafting another position. The 2 position that retain there value the most or live up to there drafted rankings are Qb and TE so if you take say a Steven Jackson at the end of the 1st when a Aaron Rogers and a Jimmy Graham are sitting there I think it's foolish. Of those 3 players which is more likely to live up to his draft ranking? Now if you have ya rankings and they are a lil different than everyone else and one of ya top 5 RB fall to you by all means draft him. I just think people have to be a lil more willing to think outside if the box instead if following the herd. If I took Brees Dez Randall Cobb and Welker with my 1st 4 picks without taking a RB I bet I could still make the playoffs especially in a ppr league. You Clare always gonna have a weakness somewhere that's what the waiver wire is for IT DOES NOT MATTER WHERE THE POINTS COME FROM
We Tigers
Footballguy
You didn't say anything about the end of an RB run or drafting late in the first in your initial post, but I generally agree with the idea that zigging when your opponents zag is a good way to create separation.
Rodgers and Graham with a late pick is certainly a strong, low-risk combo based on their positions and track record. There's certainly a trade-off, however, and it hinges heavily on hitting RB hard through the mid-rounds. Because of both the higher injury rate and scarcity of the RB position, you may need 4-5 mid round RBs to approximate the number of high VBD RBs you can could have gotten with 1-2 early picks. It is not an intrinsically safer solution (and I understand you may not be arguing that, so this is more just a conclusion for the crowd); you just distribute the risk across a different part of your draft and sacrifice the potential value of the deep QB class. Different strokes for different folks.
Rodgers and Graham with a late pick is certainly a strong, low-risk combo based on their positions and track record. There's certainly a trade-off, however, and it hinges heavily on hitting RB hard through the mid-rounds. Because of both the higher injury rate and scarcity of the RB position, you may need 4-5 mid round RBs to approximate the number of high VBD RBs you can could have gotten with 1-2 early picks. It is not an intrinsically safer solution (and I understand you may not be arguing that, so this is more just a conclusion for the crowd); you just distribute the risk across a different part of your draft and sacrifice the potential value of the deep QB class. Different strokes for different folks.
WampusCat43
Footballguy
The only time I've been able to put together a decent team from 12 without going RB/RB was when there was multiple QBs/WRs taken in the first, which doesn't seem realistic.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I know many have said this, but if you play high stakes FF...you don't know your leaguemates tendencies.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
yeah but if its not your first year playing in that particular format, you probably have an idea of how it goes.
the more "shark" filled the league the more it goes according to form normally.
When I drafted from the ten spot for my FPC team I went with RB/RB first 2 rounds and WR/WR in rounds 3&4..
Had Lynch, Morris and White, VJax
That's two top ten RBs and two top ten WRs from last year. Rather have balance then try to spend middle rounds chasing RBs because I can't trust my starters...
Had Lynch, Morris and White, VJax
That's two top ten RBs and two top ten WRs from last year. Rather have balance then try to spend middle rounds chasing RBs because I can't trust my starters...
hauser42
Footballguy
Why would having more sharks in your league make it go to form? I think sharks are ahead of the curve and change how a draft goes year to year. Sharks starting tight ends ealry in drafts before it came into the norm. Sharks also tend to know when a player is at a value and grab him earlier than most.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I'd bet on Doug Martin, Arian Foster, or Adrian Peterson finishing top 5 before I'd bet on Calvin finishing WR1.
Now, Calvin finishing top 2? I'd take the Calvin side of the bet at that point.
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Ha, not sure where you got that I have a strict draft approach from that. My draft approach is based on VBD, with first round extremely averse to downside risk. There are just way too many questions on the back half of the 1st round RBs, in my opinion, and Calvin's advantage over the rest of the WRs is immense.
Again -highly- dependent on league specs. Taking away or adding 1 WR position GREATLY affects VBD calcs.
No. I wouldn't. I have no clue how you possibly came to that conclusion.
I went to the trouble of highlighting the part of my two sentences you seemed to miss.
I would bet on either Martin, or on Peterson, or on Foster, finishing in the top 5 of RB's before I'd bet on Calvin finishing as the top 1 WR.
chickensoup
Footballguy
I just can't see not taking a RB (or 2) by the end of the second round this year. Of course everything depends on how the draft is going, but I don't see how you win without a top 15 preseason ranked RB, which is where you'll be if you skip RB in the first 2 rounds.
I'm sure one of Murray, MJD, Miller etc is going to break the top 12, possibly top 8ish. It happens every year. But which one? That's the big downside. And 15 backs still leaves 7 other owners without a RB2 on their roster past the second round in a 12 team league so you're competing with them plus anyone wanting to flex a RB. You just have to hit on RB later, against a shallow pool of unknowns (Miller, Bell, Lacy) injuries (MJD, McFadden, Murray) and RBBC (Carolina, CIN). It's ok to try with one guy to pick up Rodgers, Graham, or Mega (maybe Brees) but I think you will regret not taking someone in round 2 if you do.
The whole premise of "I'll just get someone like Bush or Miller later" is kind of a weird stance to me. It means you know you're getting them or are going to reach for them. It's easy to theorize a lineup taking WR/TE early for instance, another thing entirely to actually get it.
Enough people pick non-standard (ie not RB/RB) now days in most leagues I've joined in the past 3 years that upside down drafting just doesn't work. The premise is that you are zigging while everyone else zags. You're getting elite production from WR and QB and fliers on RB that noone else is taking because they already have 2 and now need other positions. It's just not working out that way anymore. Fantasy Football used to have no QB taken in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 1 or 2 WR in the first 2 rounds. It's just not that way anymore. You're not the sole person vying for the Lamar Millers and Eddy Lacys of the draft anymore, so relying on getting them is a fools game
I'm sure one of Murray, MJD, Miller etc is going to break the top 12, possibly top 8ish. It happens every year. But which one? That's the big downside. And 15 backs still leaves 7 other owners without a RB2 on their roster past the second round in a 12 team league so you're competing with them plus anyone wanting to flex a RB. You just have to hit on RB later, against a shallow pool of unknowns (Miller, Bell, Lacy) injuries (MJD, McFadden, Murray) and RBBC (Carolina, CIN). It's ok to try with one guy to pick up Rodgers, Graham, or Mega (maybe Brees) but I think you will regret not taking someone in round 2 if you do.
The whole premise of "I'll just get someone like Bush or Miller later" is kind of a weird stance to me. It means you know you're getting them or are going to reach for them. It's easy to theorize a lineup taking WR/TE early for instance, another thing entirely to actually get it.
Enough people pick non-standard (ie not RB/RB) now days in most leagues I've joined in the past 3 years that upside down drafting just doesn't work. The premise is that you are zigging while everyone else zags. You're getting elite production from WR and QB and fliers on RB that noone else is taking because they already have 2 and now need other positions. It's just not working out that way anymore. Fantasy Football used to have no QB taken in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 1 or 2 WR in the first 2 rounds. It's just not that way anymore. You're not the sole person vying for the Lamar Millers and Eddy Lacys of the draft anymore, so relying on getting them is a fools game
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
You basically did the research I didnt feel like doing. There is turnover every year and every position, RB has the most partially because they get injured more, but also because with RBBC and such, situations change frequently year to year.
There's around 25 WRs that I think could realistically end up in the Top 10 at the position this year. There's probably 15 RBs that I think can realistically do that. The biggest difference though, is you can still get 2 of those 25 WRs in the 3rd and 4th round after getting those RBs in the first couple rounds. Just look at the post above where someone got Lynch, Morris, Roddy, VJax.
There's much more reliable WRs in the middle rounds than the RBs you take a flier one. You pretty much have to take a few mid round RBs and hope one of them hits if you got that route.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I agree it looks deep, but when 15 RBs are going in the top 24 picks, you cant wait to get those RBs that are the reason why its deep in the first place.
Yeah, ignore my keepers, that makes it easier. That said, I think we just disagree. I think Dez, Julio and Demaryius are locks for top 10 barring injury and disagree that there are 25 WRs with the potential to be top 10 versus only 15 RBs for top 10.
Let's look at WRs. According to FBG rankings, there were 3 WRs that were top 10 in 2011 and 2012. At first glance, that seems like a lot of turnover, but of the 7 top 10 in 2011 that weren't top 10 in 2012, we had Harvin who was top 5 when he got hurt and missed almost half the season, Nelson, who finished 31st, but missed 4 games, prorated he finishes 17, Welker and Cruz, who finished 12 and 13, just out of the top 10, Smith who finished 19th, Wallace who finished 24th, and Fitz who finished 42nd. So, from 2011 to 2012, 1 of the 7 finishes top 10 barring injury, 2 of the 7 were just out of the top 10, 2 of the 7 were still top 20, 1 of the 7 was still a WR2 and 1 of the 7 completely fell off the face of the earth.
Looking at the top 10 in 2012, why weren't they top 10 in 2011? Well Green, DT and Jones were rookies in 2011, but all 1st round picks and they lived up to their potential. AJ and Jones were actually 14 and 17 in 2011. Marshall finished 13th even with crappy QBs. Bryant was #19. Decker was a rookie as well. Andre Johnson was top 10 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, only missing 2011 because he missed 9 games. The top 10 in 2012 looks real good in terms of consistency/meeting expectations.
Obviously there is a numbers game and with Calvin and only 10 slots, it is hard to "guarantee" 5 more WRs being in the top 10, but as you can see, barring injury, the top WRs are consistent and when you figure out who is a real stud, they are pretty solid locks at staying at the top barring injury. Look at all the real top WRs, i.e. not the Wallaces/Nelsons, in NFL history and they are usually extremely consistent. I don't think Dez, Julio and Thomas would be confused with Nelson/Wallace talent wise, they are stud talents, have the same QBs as last year and I have no doubt in my mind they are locks for the top 10, barring injury.
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Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
That's a hell of a start to your draft. I'd be interested in hearing the rest of your roster.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I figured I didnt need to explain why I though Dez, Demaryius, and Julio might not end up as Top 10 WR's, but...
Dez had a breakout year last year, no doubt. He is still on a team with Witten and Austin though. Both those guys get a lot of targets. Witten only had 3 TDs last year despite having the most receptions of his career. Wouldnt be surprising if he got a few more TDs at Dez's expense. Austin I think is really underrated this year, he finished as almost a WR2 last year and is barely being drafted as a WR3. Really the biggest X factor is Murray who was hurt most of last yr, and was certainly out of the lineup when Dez busted out. If Murray stays healthy this year, Dez wont be doing what he did 2nd half last season.
Demaryius has great talent, has a great QB albeit on the downside, but the team also signed Welker and drafted Ball. While I think getting Welker dips Decker's stats more than DT, there's no way you can say adding Welker helps DT's overall numbers or targets. This team is playoff made this year while it wasnt at the start of last year. I can see Fox leaning on the run game more.
I love Julio, took him in the 2nd in a couple drafts last year even, but he still only finished WR9 last year. Thats great, but youre calling him a top 10 lock this year when he barely finished that high in last year. Roddy White is still there and I doubt he falls off this year. More importantly, SJax is there after Turner looked like crap last year. SJax is going to take some points from those WRs this year that Turner couldnt last year. Also, Matt Ryan had a career year last year. While I dont expect him to drop off much, I dont think he has a better year either.
I like all 3 of these guys talent wise, but each has a reason to fall off a bit this year in regards to their stats.
And the fact that in your keeper league you already have your top 2 RBs absolutely makes a difference draft wise and why your plan is going WR/WR
My Full Team...TE is my weak point, but my strategy was to target high upside guys and hope one hits or play the waiver wire...
QB- Kaepernick, Dalton
RB- Lynch, Morris, Ivory, J. Rodgers, Stacy, Leshoure
WR- White, VJax, D.Alexander, M.Austin, Hartline, Bess
TE- Housler, Ausberry, Walker
K- Akers
DEF- NE, SD
Starters would be:
QB- Kap
RB- Lynch
RB- Morris
WR-White
WR-DJax
FLEX-D.Alexander
FLEX-M.Austin
TE-Housler
K-Akers
Def-NE
ShaqAttaq
Morally Ambiguous
last year, in one league i took rodgers at 1.04, then charles, then ridley later. it obviously worked. certainly wouldn't take rodgers in that spot again this year
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This also shows the extent of recency bias that goes into projections. Too much emphasis on the most recent season.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
No one is saying that....its a question of supply and demand.
The difference between taking Brady and taking Romo is about 3 PPG based on standard scoring. Romo you can get in the 7th round.
The difference between taking a RB in the first or a RB in the 3rd is you end up with a guy in a time share that is getting you 7-10 points less.
Huge difference. Why waste a pick on a QB high when there are 15 of them who score within 4-5 points of each other. There are not 30+ RB that are weekly fantasy starters.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
But that's not guaranteed. Cue the stats for turnover in the running back department.
If you have a good feel for a RB in the 4th or 5th round that pans out, go for it. Myself, if I am at one of the turns, I am going to go WR/WR the first time it comes to me because whatever productivity I lose at the RB2 spot will be made up by having my WR2 being astoundingly ahead of the game. Do the odds favor the team that go RB/RB? Probably, but I wouldn't say definitively so. Besides, if you do what everyone else does, you are in the same pile of odds as everyone else. Going against the grain and being at the front end of a run rather than the tail end... particularly if you are at either of the turns... you can still get good return on your investment.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
It's actually a question of supply and demand, which changes based on league setup. There are not 30 QBs who are weekly fantasy starters, either. Change your league setup to incorporate 6pt PaTD and -3 INT and make it a start 2 QB league. Now tell me if you're waiting until Round 7 to pick up a top-tiered QB. You can't. You'll be left choosing between Jake Locker or Brandon Weeden.
pantherclub
Footballguy
how many teams are in your league? I don't see you getting green and Martin in a 12 team redraft
well it depends on your team make up so far and who else is out there obv. in my 12 team leagues i would be absolutely ecstatic if those guys were around that late. they are going early 3rd and late 2nd and seem to be creeping higher as ppl realize the rb cliff is precipitous in the mid rounds.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Big difference between going WR/WR at the 1st/2nd turn than WR/WR at the 2nd/3rd turn. Doing the former would pretty much be FF suicide this year.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
I disagree. Loading up on RBs at the end of the first round run seems like you're willing to take what's left just because of the shortage. But if what's left isn't that much different than what you'd get at the end of the third, why rush? If I'm being pushed into taking Steven Jackson or LeSean McCoy, guys who are presumed to be good players but still back end RB1s, or getting the #2 and 3 WRs on my board, then it comes down to what the difference is between the backs I would get at 1.11 or 1.12 and the ones I'm getting at 3.11 or 3.12.
No matter who I take at RB in the first round, I will always be at a presumed disadvantage at the RB1 position to those who drafted in the top 5-10 spots. Yes, some settling occurs during shipping, but unless I really like one of the guys who comes to me (I've gotten Rice at 1.11 on a couple of mocks) then I need to look to make up the points I've already fallen behind. Why must I try to make them up at my RB2, especially if I'm not giddy over who would be RB1? Why can't I try to make up the difference by having the best WR2 in the league? Yes, the depth at WR is good this year, but if I get RBs 23 and 25 (-ish... at worst) at the 3/4 turn but the WRs 2 and 3 to start, is that significantly worse than RBs 10 and 12 and then WRs... what.... 11 and 14? Just typing that makes me feel very middle-of-the-road.
Picking RB/RB at the tail end of the RB run in the opening rounds sets you up to be forced into WR/WR at the tail end of the inevitable WR run coming in round 3. My last mock I got the 20th and 22nd RBs off the board from the 11 spot, guys who I had above quite a few of the guys ahead of them. I feel I still got value at my RB position. I don't expect it to be what I would have gotten if I went RB/RB, but I expect the difference to be less than the WRs I get at 1/2 and what I would have gotten at 3/4. Dez, Julio, Sproles and David Wilson was my last mock, and I would take that over having to force Shady and SJax and then settle for Andre Johnson and Wes Welker.
I can see going RB/WR if the right RB falls to me, but I just see a RB/RB start at the back turn forcing me into the same bad position in rounds 3 and 4. The only way to break that cycle to me seems to be to get at least one WR early. And since I think the top 4 WRs are significantly better than the "depth" picks that will be filling other people's rosters at their WR2 and even their WR1 spots (if they go for Brees, Rodgers or Graham early), I feel I'm maximizing the options I have.
