Mario Kart
Footballguy
I like both of those teams. Team B does not have his 4th rounder listed... I assume it was a QB however waiting till round 4 for a RB is not the worst situation this year or any year.
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RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter prgromek
- Start date
cobalt_27
Footballguy
There were also two teams that went RB/RB/RB in the same league as the two teams that went WR/WR/WR
Here are their RBS and WRS
Team C (had first pick in the draft)
RB
AP-1st
D.Murray-2nd
D.Sproles-3rd
Hillman-8th
S.Greene-13th
D.Thomas-14th
WRS
H.Nicks-4th
A.Brown-5th
D.Jackson-7th
A.Boldin-9th
S.Rice-12th
G.Little-15th
S.Hill-19th
D.Baldwin-20th
Team D
RBS
D.Martin-1st (had the 3rd pick)
CJ1K-2nd
DMC-3rd
C.Michael-14th
M.Reece-15th
J.Forsett-18th
WRS
P.Garcon-5th
K.Britt-7th
J.Gordon-9th
J.Blackmon-10th
R.Broyles-11th
R.Randle-12th
C.Givens-13th
Here are their RBS and WRS
Team C (had first pick in the draft)
RB
AP-1st
D.Murray-2nd
D.Sproles-3rd
Hillman-8th
S.Greene-13th
D.Thomas-14th
WRS
H.Nicks-4th
A.Brown-5th
D.Jackson-7th
A.Boldin-9th
S.Rice-12th
G.Little-15th
S.Hill-19th
D.Baldwin-20th
Team D
RBS
D.Martin-1st (had the 3rd pick)
CJ1K-2nd
DMC-3rd
C.Michael-14th
M.Reece-15th
J.Forsett-18th
WRS
P.Garcon-5th
K.Britt-7th
J.Gordon-9th
J.Blackmon-10th
R.Broyles-11th
R.Randle-12th
C.Givens-13th
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cobalt_27
Footballguy
Incidentally, where were Ryan and Luck selected?Wait, did Andrew Luck not get picked until the 13th round? I think my head is about to explode.
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I'm telling you I'm really starting to think teams are crazy to pass on a top 3 Qb just to justify taking these RB if I'm drafting #1 it's no way in hell I could pass on having Peterson and Rogers arguably the #1 RB and Qb in the draft if you walk away with that you are playing from ahead big time!!!
cobalt_27
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
bagger
Footballguy
theres not a problem with the model, you just need to understand when and where you take positions given ADP, your proejctions, and where value is.
I'm drafting #10 out of 12 if Rogers or Brees is there I'm taking him I want a sure thing with my #1. The only way I pass is if one of my top #5 RB falls to me. Again my league gives 6pt all Tds 9 pts over 40 yds the last 5yrs the champ has had a top 5 QB in my league! The only one who didn't had a 2000 yd rusher. Now they weren't all drafted early I won league in 2011 because I drafted Stafford in 7th rd and got Cam as a FA and traded Stafford but you have to have one
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Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
Texasmouth
Footballguy
Aaron Rodgers only average 2 more points than Matt Ryan yet he is going 4-5 rounds sooner.
That is just plain moronic in my opinion.
That is just plain moronic in my opinion.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Well, its nice to finally see why you slobber over QBs. Thats your league, not the standard! 4 pt pass TDs is the standard, your scoring ridiculously favors QBs. Its pretty clear you cant look at this from an objective POV.
He wouldn't go 4-5 rds ahead in my league they will both go. Again you can't follow the herd we don't draft last yr number we draft on what we expect to happen this yr.
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Is that really the standard how many people actually play in leagues that only award 4pts for passing Tds,? If that was the case Cam Newton is probably the best player in those leagues! All over these boards it seems that a lot of leagues play 6pt td leagues
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I think the teams sithrich posted just reiterates how difficult it is to take the same position in the first 3 rounds and not needing luck to help stabilize the positions you past on those first few rounds. I think team A looks good and the best of the 4 he posted, but Gore is going early 3rd so getting him in the 4th is a gift, Bell in the 5th is also a round below his ADP, and over the next couple weeks I fully expect his ADP to approach the 3rd round. Team B looks awful at RB and I would give them almost no shot at making the playoffs, and I like Vereen this year.
Team C overdrafted Murray and Sproles. Even with that, switch whichever one for a WR in the 3rd and thats a solid team. Team D after having solid RB/RB picks the first 2 rounds, DMC was a totally unnecessary pick, and a risky one to boot. It looks like they went QB and TE in rounds 4 and 5 which makes the WRs look even worse, but use the 3rd round pick on a WR and that is a stacked WR corps. Its just missing a legit WR1 (although the RB depth is horrid too after DMC).
Team C overdrafted Murray and Sproles. Even with that, switch whichever one for a WR in the 3rd and thats a solid team. Team D after having solid RB/RB picks the first 2 rounds, DMC was a totally unnecessary pick, and a risky one to boot. It looks like they went QB and TE in rounds 4 and 5 which makes the WRs look even worse, but use the 3rd round pick on a WR and that is a stacked WR corps. Its just missing a legit WR1 (although the RB depth is horrid too after DMC).
chickensoup
Footballguy
It's the exact reason you normally don't go with 3 RB to start. 1 or 2 is fine. You give up a ton of points for the third RB. Those are not good cases of what people are talking about. Show the full lineups for all teams IMO. Guaranteed the ones that look the best going into the year are the ones with a 1st and/or second round RBEdit: I meant at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds.
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<--Raises hand.
4 points for all passing TD's in every one of my leagues
And no, Cam is far from the best player in those leagues.
You simply don't have a clue.
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Texasmouth
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Why do you think Cam Newton is the 4th QB being picked? Or RG3, Kaepernick, and Wilson are considered QB1's? Its because of their rushing TDs being more valuable, and the yards as well. Yes I still think 4pt pass TDs is the standard. The whole point using 4pt pass TDs (and less pts/yd) is to equalize the positional value since QBs obviously get the most TDs and yards.
Thats fine and all that you play in a league that ridiculously overvalues QBs, but dont come in here and act like everyone else is crazy for waiting on QBs when I guessing no one else plays in a league like yours.
And every league I have ever been in no one is still going 4pt passing td maybe y'all prehistoric asses need to get a clue?
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Considering youve averaged 75 posts a year here since 2003 maybe you are the one who is behind the times.
In ESPN, Yahoo, NFL., etc the standard league rules are 4pt passing TDs. Is doesnt get more standard than that.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Its true, but if I'm not mistaken a lot of leagues are 1 pt per 20 passing yards these days (at least thats what I hear) and 4 pts per passing TD. Personally, I think 1 pt per 20 yards is too high and I think 4 pts per passing TD is too low.
My leagues use 6pt all TDs, 1pt per 25 yards, 0.1 pt per completion and -0.1 per attempt. Even with what I consider settings that favor elite QBs I still like QBBC.
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Wow so 6 pt Td overvalues Qb. I like to think it gives Qb is proper value I've been playing for about 15 yrs now and some leagues were like that in beginning but not too many leagues I've seen still use 4pt passing Tds but why be a smart ### about it? Aren't we all just sharing our opinion bout Fantssy football I'm no better than no one I just find it hard to believe in any scoring system I'd pass on having the #1 RB and the #1 Qb in the first 2 rds
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
What do high stakes fantasy football leagues do? That will tell you what is standard. Local leagues all have their own odd ball rules.
Saint
Footballguy
I agree with Kenny. Most of the leagues I'm in are 4 pt per passing TDs, including the FPC. Unless you are playing in a traditional league, most tournament leagues are 4 pt per passing TDs. Just my observation.
We Tigers
Footballguy
I play in a league with 6 point passing TDs, but we also bumped interceptions to -3, and reduced yardage to 25 yards/1 point like Run It Up suggested. This added a little more value to the players with elite TD:INT ratio without making the scoring absurd.
Also, even if one grants that 6 point passing TDs are standard, 8 points for TDs of 40+ certainly isn't a standard. QBs will clearly be the biggest beneficiaries of that since they produce a much larger quantity of TDs than any other single player.
Also, even if one grants that 6 point passing TDs are standard, 8 points for TDs of 40+ certainly isn't a standard. QBs will clearly be the biggest beneficiaries of that since they produce a much larger quantity of TDs than any other single player.
chickensoup
Footballguy
It's helpful to establish baselines when making discussions on draft strategy.
1pt/20 Yds passing
1/10 Yds running or receiving
6/TD receiving/running
4/TD throwing
Those are all pretty standard. Most sites you actually specifically have to change it from that when you make a league because almost all ADP and points projections are based on those numbers. If you are making a point about draft strategy in any thread, and your thoughts differ from others based on numbers different than those above that's a good thing to mention
1pt/20 Yds passing
1/10 Yds running or receiving
6/TD receiving/running
4/TD throwing
Those are all pretty standard. Most sites you actually specifically have to change it from that when you make a league because almost all ADP and points projections are based on those numbers. If you are making a point about draft strategy in any thread, and your thoughts differ from others based on numbers different than those above that's a good thing to mention
Lmao ok maybe so what does that have to do with how many posts I make a yr??
Ok that's fine maybe in mistaken I thought more leagues had gotten past that but I can respect ya answer but what's up with people being such smart a####!! It's like people hate u to have a difference of opinion
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Call it overvaluing QBs, undervaluing other positions, whatever you want. The top QBs in the league throw 40+ TDs per year. The leading RB or WR is typically about 15 TDs, some years a little higher, but 20 TDs is a rare thing from those positions. The point of having passing TDs be worth 4 pts is to equalize the positional scoring because naturally QBs get more TDs. I dont see why that it hard to understand. In leagues like yours where QBs can get 8pts for a TD, no wonder you are gung ho about getting a QB early and whoever won your league the last 10 years had a Top 5 QB, because QBs dominate scoring in your league.
I apologize for being a smart ### if it came across that way, but I find it mindboggling how youve been claiming it is ridiculous to go RB/RB or WR/WR and the importance of taking an elite QB early when that has purely been due to your own leagues rules that are far from the norm and skewing your perspective on this discussion.
Did you and Kenny read the post we were replying to talking about 26/29 of the first 36 picks being RBs? Well, that means only 7-10 other players are being taken, so one would think that would mean Graham (no Gronk yet), 3-4 QBs and 3-5 WRs would be taken when the 26th-29th RBs are being taken. We weren't talking about ADP, we were saying that it is crazy to think that is the way a draft should go. The guys I listed are correct in terms of ADP if you take into account 26-29 RBs in the first 36 picks.
Also, my points on the points was in regards to someone who said you should wait until the other 11 teams have picked QBs before thinking about QBs. My point was that if you are late in the first round, taking Brees/Rodgers gives you the same points advantage over QB12 as Peterson's owner got over RB12.
Anyway, all my points were more about absolutes (never pick a QB until 11 are gone or always go RB-RB-RB) and I am not against taking RBs in the first couple rounds based on value. I play in 2 of 3 keeper leagues, so sometimes it is hard to compare, but I always seem to draft late and I often pass on questionable RBs for the top QBs/WRs. I look at what gives me the most advantage for each pick, period.
The times I've gone WR/WR, I've typically grabbed 4-5 RB's in the next 8 rounds. The additional outs, so to speak, enhance your odds of finding solid value. You aren't gambling that any one of the guys pans out - you're gambling that at least two pan out.
I don't think all of the 'safe' RB1s offer the security that a top 4 WR does, and I certainly don't think the RB2s do.
So the question to me boils down to, do I feel safer grabbing 2 RBs in late position and throwing a bunch of WR's at the wall, or vice versa.
OK, well those guys won't be available for me at the turn, so the guys I listed are the guys who I will be passing on. I guess that means you agree with me.
I am not arguing going WR-WR at the turn always. I probably wouldn't without keepers. This is PIA part of these discussions, trying to give examples about what you are doing in your own league. It isn't always applicable to other people.
Dez
Footballguy
I did an FPC draft live on the air on Friday night I took Brees in the 4th round because it was such "good value" but I was sure kicking myself when Manning and Newton went in the 6th, Ryan and Brady in the 7th and Luck/Romo in the 10th. What I sacrificed at RB, WR and TE for Brees I did not really make up for at RB, WR, TE later. Brees is going to have to score a heck of a lot of points to overcome that. Do you want Brees in the 4th or do you like Manning/Newton in the 6th ? They could score about the same points anyway but the difference at RB,WR and TE in the 4th and 6th could be big.
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chickensoup
Footballguy
Have you gone WR/WR this year though? If so care to share a typical roster you have? I went WR/TE in a league last year, but I was pretty sure I could get a couple of guys later in the 3/4 rounds (got Gore and Martin) And the guys at the end of the first were not interesting to me (Matthews, McFadden). But then again it was following one of the craziest years in FF for QB do they flew off the board really fast in standard scoring leagues.
This year I see limited options in the late 3rd early 4th for decent RB gambles. Bell is as close as it gets and he doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Dez
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I feel like Im having deja vu with having FBGs posting their opinion based on their own league.
However, it shouldnt be a PITA because you should be looking at things from the landscape as if you didnt have keepers, like I said earlier, for the purposes of this thread. There's a huge difference with your specific situation especially, since its a keeper league, that doesnt relate to redraft 2013 strategy, which is the entire point of this thread.
You aren't having deja vu. You are just arguing with me they way you did on the last page (see my post above to someone else). Hauser and I replied to someone that said 26-29 of the first 36 picks should be RBs and I posted the 27th-30th RB vs. the 7th-10th QB/TE/WR and we both agree how silly it was. You and We Tigers then posted how the RBs I listed didn't have the ADPs that the QB/WRs I listed. Well duh, because we were posting how silly it is to think that 26-29 RBs should be taken in the first 36 picks. So, you and We Tigers were agreeing with us even though you were arguing the players I listed were bad comparisons. Again, duh, that was my evidence that 26-29 RBs in the first 36 picks is crazy.
I am now having deja vu with having FBGs post replies to the last post in a discussion and not reading all the posts in the discussion thus ignoring the context of the last post.
Sure, it would be wonderful if we could discuss 2013 strategy, but you said you don't do PPR, so your judgement is clouded by that right away. All my posts tried to convey what I was doing and I tried to put in comparable players to illustrate my choices and that is all I can do.
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Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Yeah I read that post, and its asinine to say 26-29 RBs are going in the first 36 picks when 20 RBs are going that early based on ADP. Of course you arent talking about ADP, because RB26 is going mid 5th round, RB29 almost 7th round. You and hauser42 are hypothetically talking about a situation/draft that isnt going to happen unless you are in a league at your local assisted living facility. Even then, those old timers probably bought a fantasy football magazine at the grocery store in June and still wouldnt make such absurd picks.
As for your 2nd paragraph, unless you play in a start 1 RB league, VBD something you need to brush up on apparently. QB12 is equivalent to RB24, because most leagues start 2 RBs, with potentially 1-2 more depending on flex. Not that I go by Dodds' projections, but just to facilitate things, he has QB1 scoring about 75 more points than QB12. Dodds also has RB1 scoring about 120 more points than RB24. So no, your point about the points advantage of taking Brees/Rodgers is Samsonite, way off.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
If I was you and a stud WR falls to the 4th round, you should lock that in too and take him. He can be your flex so your flex will be much better than your opponents flex position. Shark move.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
You sir, are correct now that I look back at that. I think I read that post and it was so stupid it didnt deserve to stay in my short term memory.
It really didnt even deserve a rebuttal in the 1st place because its outlandish. Yeah, maybe that guy did see 26 RBs have gone in the first 36 picks, and Im sure it was a mock draft where people were seeing what kind of team they could put together doing so.
I put some thought into the diff between drafting a QB higher in a 6pt for all TD league, or drafting a QB high in a standard 4pt for QB passing TD league. Here goes.
So I roughly calculated that last year the diff in ppg between the #1QB and #12QB was approx 5.3 pts in a standard league. The diff between those same players ppg in a 6ptfor all TD league was approx 7.4 pts. Now I did not take into account any difference in the interception cost of those two leagues, but I imagine it would bring those to numbers closer together.
Now lets take a look at the diff between the #1 and #12 RB ppg. This diff will be the same for both leagues. I calculated it to be approx 8.1ppg. The diff between the #1 and #24 RB is approx 12ppg.
This data alone can make the Argument that you need to take care of the RB position early, as it has the largest diff in ppg most years. This is regardless of whether what type of league it is IMO.
Now this doesn't account for any bust or injuries to draft picks, but a gauge to the diff in the players previous years stats. I have noticed that in years past that leagues have been won by having a "top" QB. I cannot explain why that is, but it is happening, possibly bc of the consistency?
Let me know if my logic or thought process has errors or I am missing anything.
Edit: data from http://www.profootballweekly.com/fantasy/statistics/?page=2&category=Overall&season=2012&position=RB
So I roughly calculated that last year the diff in ppg between the #1QB and #12QB was approx 5.3 pts in a standard league. The diff between those same players ppg in a 6ptfor all TD league was approx 7.4 pts. Now I did not take into account any difference in the interception cost of those two leagues, but I imagine it would bring those to numbers closer together.
Now lets take a look at the diff between the #1 and #12 RB ppg. This diff will be the same for both leagues. I calculated it to be approx 8.1ppg. The diff between the #1 and #24 RB is approx 12ppg.
This data alone can make the Argument that you need to take care of the RB position early, as it has the largest diff in ppg most years. This is regardless of whether what type of league it is IMO.
Now this doesn't account for any bust or injuries to draft picks, but a gauge to the diff in the players previous years stats. I have noticed that in years past that leagues have been won by having a "top" QB. I cannot explain why that is, but it is happening, possibly bc of the consistency?
Let me know if my logic or thought process has errors or I am missing anything.
Edit: data from http://www.profootballweekly.com/fantasy/statistics/?page=2&category=Overall&season=2012&position=RB
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I usually prefer to not do this unless the value is ridiculous (Victor Cruz in 4th ridiculous), as you then have no spot to put your breakout stars.
Who do you think?
Barring injury, Calvin, Dez, Green, Julio are going to put up numbers.
My typical WR/WR strategy from mid/late position right now (some tweaks depending on if 7th or 12th,of course:1: Calvin (strategy hinges on starting with him)
2: 1 of Dez, Green, Julio
3/4: 2 of DWilson, LMiller, LBell
5: Bernard or Vereen (used to be able to get both at 5/6, no longer)
6: I like taking RG3 here unless QB's really slipping. I've also taken V Davis, but his value may have skyrocketed past this now
7/8: QB and either Mendenhall or Hopkins
9/10: target list includes Michael Floyd, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead. You have to grab a Pierce, Andre, or Bryce here if you want one.
11th:Hillman used to be available here, no longer. Jacquizz Rodgers still is, but meh. Not a huge fan.
Late target has been Bilal Powell. Late late late target has been Chris Polk.
This is just a predraft plan. You have to be flexible if value drops, however.
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