RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)

[pantherclub]

Calvin and AJ Green on the same team would be an amazing foundation to any team. I think its possible the way running backs are going. You have 2 lock in studs with little room for either to bust. Flip that around and take 2 running backs you have to assume one and maybe both will fizzle out and now you are scrambling to figure out what to do. Most people ride their first 2 picks for weeks thinking they will come out of the slump and therefor getting nothing in return.

 

[We Tigers]

That would be a good draft, but not a very likely one. I know some guys will always slip depending on preferences in each league, but based on current ADP you're counting on slips in rounds 2-4, and then again at the 7/8. Risky proposition if you're focused in on specific players like that, especially in early rounds where variance against ADP is less likely. It plays a bit differently if you end up with Calvin, Julio, Leveon Bell, and Montee Ball.

 

[chickensoup]

I just can't see not taking a RB (or 2) by the end of the second round this year. Of course everything depends on how the draft is going, but I don't see how you win without a top 15 preseason ranked RB, which is where you'll be if you skip RB in the first 2 rounds.

I'm sure one of Murray, MJD, Miller etc is going to break the top 12, possibly top 8ish. It happens every year. But which one? That's the big downside. And 15 backs still leaves 7 other owners without a RB2 on their roster past the second round in a 12 team league so you're competing with them plus anyone wanting to flex a RB. You just have to hit on RB later, against a shallow pool of unknowns (Miller, Bell, Lacy) injuries (MJD, McFadden, Murray) and RBBC (Carolina, CIN). It's ok to try with one guy to pick up Rodgers, Graham, or Mega (maybe Brees) but I think you will regret not taking someone in round 2 if you do.

The whole premise of "I'll just get someone like Bush or Miller later" is kind of a weird stance to me. It means you know you're getting them or are going to reach for them. It's easy to theorize a lineup taking WR/TE early for instance, another thing entirely to actually get it.

Enough people pick non-standard (ie not RB/RB) now days in most leagues I've joined in the past 3 years that upside down drafting just doesn't work. The premise is that you are zigging while everyone else zags. You're getting elite production from WR and QB and fliers on RB that noone else is taking because they already have 2 and now need other positions. It's just not working out that way anymore. Fantasy Football used to have no QB taken in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 1 or 2 WR in the first 2 rounds. It's just not that way anymore. You're not the sole person vying for the Lamar Millers and Eddy Lacys of the draft anymore, so relying on getting them is a fools game

The times I've gone WR/WR, I've typically grabbed 4-5 RB's in the next 8 rounds. The additional outs, so to speak, enhance your odds of finding solid value. You aren't gambling that any one of the guys pans out - you're gambling that at least two pan out. I don't think all of the 'safe' RB1s offer the security that a top 4 WR does, and I certainly don't think the RB2s do.

So the question to me boils down to, do I feel safer grabbing 2 RBs in late position and throwing a bunch of WR's at the wall, or vice versa.

Have you gone WR/WR this year though? If so care to share a typical roster you have? I went WR/TE in a league last year, but I was pretty sure I could get a couple of guys later in the 3/4 rounds (got Gore and Martin) And the guys at the end of the first were not interesting to me (Matthews, McFadden). But then again it was following one of the craziest years in FF for QB do they flew off the board really fast in standard scoring leagues.This year I see limited options in the late 3rd early 4th for decent RB gambles. Bell is as close as it gets and he doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

My typical WR/WR strategy from mid/late position right now (some tweaks depending on if 7th or 12th,of course:1: Calvin (strategy hinges on starting with him)

2: 1 of Dez, Green, Julio

3/4: 2 of DWilson, LMiller, LBell

5: Bernard or Vereen (used to be able to get both at 5/6, no longer)

6: I like taking RG3 here unless QB's really slipping. I've also taken V Davis, but his value may have skyrocketed past this now

7/8: QB and either Mendenhall or Hopkins

9/10: target list includes Michael Floyd, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead. You have to grab a Pierce, Andre, or Bryce here if you want one.

11th:Hillman used to be available here, no longer. Jacquizz Rodgers still is, but meh. Not a huge fan.

Late target has been Bilal Powell. Late late late target has been Chris Polk.

This is just a predraft plan. You have to be flexible if value drops, however.

What do you do if you don't get 2 of Bell, Miller, Wilson? That's the problem with the strategy overall IMO. you list specific guys, ones you are likely high on and have it in your head they will return low end RB1 to RB 2 numbers (just a guess) but what if you don't get them? Are you ok starting Mendenhall? What if you get only one and they are a bust?

If you are drafting like this because of the normally large disadvantage drafting from the end of the first round brings I can somewhat understand it. Big risk/reward plays can be fun. But it is a lot more risky than people let on. And that's why RB are getting taken highly again. I think what's very likely is that over the past couple of years, as more and more people have experimented with the idea of going WR/WR or WR/QB and then subsequently get burned at RB because they didn't happen to pick the right guys so drafting is moving back towards RB/RB or at least 1 within the first 2 rounds. So much has to go right for the risky play to work

 

[We Tigers]

That's actually another reason I strongly recommend tiers over focusing on specific players. Group your guys so you can take some emotion/attachment out of it. If you do have a tier that's just Wilson/Miller/Bell, what do things look like if that tier gets exhausted early? Where can you find value in your other tiers to compensate? Maybe you actually have a guy like Steven Jackson or Forte or CJ in a higher tier than you thought, and getting one of them in the first or second round is a better outcome than fixating on a WR/WR approach.

It's smart to identify a few guys about whom you feel really strongly, but if you really pin yourself to more than 1-2, you can end up on tilt if things don't work out as planned.

 

[cvnpoka]

Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

vbd

 

[LususV]

I just can't see not taking a RB (or 2) by the end of the second round this year. Of course everything depends on how the draft is going, but I don't see how you win without a top 15 preseason ranked RB, which is where you'll be if you skip RB in the first 2 rounds.

I'm sure one of Murray, MJD, Miller etc is going to break the top 12, possibly top 8ish. It happens every year. But which one? That's the big downside. And 15 backs still leaves 7 other owners without a RB2 on their roster past the second round in a 12 team league so you're competing with them plus anyone wanting to flex a RB. You just have to hit on RB later, against a shallow pool of unknowns (Miller, Bell, Lacy) injuries (MJD, McFadden, Murray) and RBBC (Carolina, CIN). It's ok to try with one guy to pick up Rodgers, Graham, or Mega (maybe Brees) but I think you will regret not taking someone in round 2 if you do.

The whole premise of "I'll just get someone like Bush or Miller later" is kind of a weird stance to me. It means you know you're getting them or are going to reach for them. It's easy to theorize a lineup taking WR/TE early for instance, another thing entirely to actually get it.

Enough people pick non-standard (ie not RB/RB) now days in most leagues I've joined in the past 3 years that upside down drafting just doesn't work. The premise is that you are zigging while everyone else zags. You're getting elite production from WR and QB and fliers on RB that noone else is taking because they already have 2 and now need other positions. It's just not working out that way anymore. Fantasy Football used to have no QB taken in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 1 or 2 WR in the first 2 rounds. It's just not that way anymore. You're not the sole person vying for the Lamar Millers and Eddy Lacys of the draft anymore, so relying on getting them is a fools game

The times I've gone WR/WR, I've typically grabbed 4-5 RB's in the next 8 rounds. The additional outs, so to speak, enhance your odds of finding solid value. You aren't gambling that any one of the guys pans out - you're gambling that at least two pan out. I don't think all of the 'safe' RB1s offer the security that a top 4 WR does, and I certainly don't think the RB2s do.

So the question to me boils down to, do I feel safer grabbing 2 RBs in late position and throwing a bunch of WR's at the wall, or vice versa.

Have you gone WR/WR this year though? If so care to share a typical roster you have? I went WR/TE in a league last year, but I was pretty sure I could get a couple of guys later in the 3/4 rounds (got Gore and Martin) And the guys at the end of the first were not interesting to me (Matthews, McFadden). But then again it was following one of the craziest years in FF for QB do they flew off the board really fast in standard scoring leagues.This year I see limited options in the late 3rd early 4th for decent RB gambles. Bell is as close as it gets and he doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

My typical WR/WR strategy from mid/late position right now (some tweaks depending on if 7th or 12th,of course:1: Calvin (strategy hinges on starting with him)

2: 1 of Dez, Green, Julio

3/4: 2 of DWilson, LMiller, LBell

5: Bernard or Vereen (used to be able to get both at 5/6, no longer)

6: I like taking RG3 here unless QB's really slipping. I've also taken V Davis, but his value may have skyrocketed past this now

7/8: QB and either Mendenhall or Hopkins

9/10: target list includes Michael Floyd, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead. You have to grab a Pierce, Andre, or Bryce here if you want one.

11th:Hillman used to be available here, no longer. Jacquizz Rodgers still is, but meh. Not a huge fan.

Late target has been Bilal Powell. Late late late target has been Chris Polk.

This is just a predraft plan. You have to be flexible if value drops, however.

What do you do if you don't get 2 of Bell, Miller, Wilson? That's the problem with the strategy overall IMO. you list specific guys, ones you are likely high on and have it in your head they will return low end RB1 to RB 2 numbers (just a guess) but what if you don't get them? Are you ok starting Mendenhall? What if you get only one and they are a bust?If you are drafting like this because of the normally large disadvantage drafting from the end of the first round brings I can somewhat understand it. Big risk/reward plays can be fun. But it is a lot more risky than people let on. And that's why RB are getting taken highly again. I think what's very likely is that over the past couple of years, as more and more people have experimented with the idea of going WR/WR or WR/QB and then subsequently get burned at RB because they didn't happen to pick the right guys so drafting is moving back towards RB/RB or at least 1 within the first 2 rounds. So much has to go right for the risky play to work

The guys listed were examples of guys I've been able to land in drafts (mocks and real). Value is changing, though, and some ADPs are shifting during camp.

If I can't land one of the guys in that tier at 3/4, that typically means there's a solid WR tier still available.

I have no problem with Mendenhall at RB2 and 2-3 good bench guys of the Woodhead variety if I have a dominant advantage at the other positions.

 

[LususV]

Calvin and AJ Green on the same team would be an amazing foundation to any team. I think its possible the way running backs are going. You have 2 lock in studs with little room for either to bust. Flip that around and take 2 running backs you have to assume one and maybe both will fizzle out and now you are scrambling to figure out what to do. Most people ride their first 2 picks for weeks thinking they will come out of the slump and therefor getting nothing in return.

Exactly. Reaching for Demarco Murray or DMC only to have them bust is a team killer.

 

[cvnpoka]

Looking at this in hindsight is a lot easier to make this argument. In the past, Ive found it quite difficult to pick the mid-late round RBs that you can count on to be your RB2, or better. Most of the time you have to get lucky and have a talented backup who becomes the starter due to injury. Last year I actually had Martin, McGahee, and Ridley each on at least 2 of my 3 teams, Spiller on 1, because I believed in their talent and situation (Spiller to a lesser degree in that regard) and thought they were great values.

That was last year though, this is this year. Many more RBs are going in the first 2 rounds this year, making it difficult to get a RB you can count on in even the 3rd round. Also, I dont see near as much talent and value in the mid-round RBs this year as I did last year. The only RBs I see going after the 4th round with a bettor's shot at ending up RB2's are Ivory, Bradshaw (I'll change my tune on him in a few weeks if he still is on PUP), and Ingram. Anyone else I think absolutely needs an injury to the guy ahead of them, or their RBBC counterpart.

Oh, and if you want to use the argument look at the RBs I couldve got in the 4th round or later last year, you couldve got Dez, Demaryius, VJax, Andre, Decker, Colston, Cobb, Wayne, Crabtree, and more WRs who finished as WR2's or better in the 4th round or later last year. It works both ways, RBs are just more scarce.

theres a lot more rbs going in the 4th to consider. mathews, mendenhall, bell, ball, bernard. gore sometimes drops. ridley often drops to 4th in ppr.

mathews and mendenhall in particular have little competition for workload.

 

[cvnpoka]

I think the teams sithrich posted just reiterates how difficult it is to take the same position in the first 3 rounds and not needing luck to help stabilize the positions you past on those first few rounds. I think team A looks good and the best of the 4 he posted, but Gore is going early 3rd so getting him in the 4th is a gift, Bell in the 5th is also a round below his ADP, and over the next couple weeks I fully expect his ADP to approach the 3rd round. Team B looks awful at RB and I would give them almost no shot at making the playoffs, and I like Vereen this year.

Team C overdrafted Murray and Sproles. Even with that, switch whichever one for a WR in the 3rd and thats a solid team. Team D after having solid RB/RB picks the first 2 rounds, DMC was a totally unnecessary pick, and a risky one to boot. It looks like they went QB and TE in rounds 4 and 5 which makes the WRs look even worse, but use the 3rd round pick on a WR and that is a stacked WR corps. Its just missing a legit WR1 (although the RB depth is horrid too after DMC).

no way. sproles at the start of the 3rd is good value if anything. he often goes mid 2nd.

i like both teams a lot actually. realize these drafts are all about big risks on upside since you need to beat out thousands of other teams. for that reason dmac is an excellent gamble.

 

[Run It Up]

I think the teams sithrich posted just reiterates how difficult it is to take the same position in the first 3 rounds and not needing luck to help stabilize the positions you past on those first few rounds. I think team A looks good and the best of the 4 he posted, but Gore is going early 3rd so getting him in the 4th is a gift, Bell in the 5th is also a round below his ADP, and over the next couple weeks I fully expect his ADP to approach the 3rd round. Team B looks awful at RB and I would give them almost no shot at making the playoffs, and I like Vereen this year.

Team C overdrafted Murray and Sproles. Even with that, switch whichever one for a WR in the 3rd and thats a solid team. Team D after having solid RB/RB picks the first 2 rounds, DMC was a totally unnecessary pick, and a risky one to boot. It looks like they went QB and TE in rounds 4 and 5 which makes the WRs look even worse, but use the 3rd round pick on a WR and that is a stacked WR corps. Its just missing a legit WR1 (although the RB depth is horrid too after DMC).

no way. sproles at the start of the 3rd is good value if anything. he often goes mid 2nd.

i like both teams a lot actually. realize these drafts are all about big risks on upside since you need to beat out thousands of other teams. for that reason dmac is an excellent gamble.

Agree his draft position varies wildly, ive seen him go as early as 16 and as late as 30.

I like Sproles in the 3rd, in fact hes one of the few backs that if they slip into my 3rd round pick Ill go RB/RB/RB.

 

[fightingillini]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

I prefer to have an elite WR or Jimmy Graham over a RB with question marks like Murray or MJD or McFadden.

I think you can cobble up a decent RB2 slot with a few guys drafted in rounds 3-6, so in a 12 teamer, I am looking at RB in the first and an elite WR/Graham in Round 2. Now if I am drafting in the 1st 4 slots, it's unlikely one of the top 6 WRs or Graham gets to me, so there I am probably going RB-RB in the 1st 2 rounds, since there is a solid WR tier after the 1st 6, which includes AJ, V Jackson, White, Fitzgerald, Cobb, and V Cruz. It's almost 100% certain that one of those WRs will be available at 3.4.....so I am happy with one of those WRs, and elite RB, and a decent RB2 to begin my draft.

I can't see a scenario of how you can pass on a RB in the first 2 rounds and end up with a solid team. After Calvin, the next 5 WRs on my list are interchangeable (Green, Marshall, Dez, Julio, and D Thomas), and while I think these guys are very good bets for elite production, they are likely not going to produce at a level where they will score enough over the next WR tier to cover the opportunity cost of passing on RBs.....therefore it's foolish to take 2 of these guys while taking no RBs in the first 2 rounds. You don't have this problem if you just take a RB in Round 1 and then most valuable player in Round 2.

 

[pantherclub]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

 

[oswizzle]

Calvin Johnson is next best safest pick after AP..... Madden Curse couldn't even hold him back....

 

[We Tigers]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

I discussed that conventional wisdom and what it actually means in detail on page 2, but here's the summary:

By saying "I don't draft first and second round RBs because WRs are safer," you're actually saying "I have low risk tolerance for injuries, which means I have less preference for RBs, the most injured position." The difference in your odds of being disappointed by an early pick of WR or RB are pretty negligible. The real difference between WR and RB dropouts is that a top ten WR dropout is more likely to give you 16 games of ~WR20-30ish production while an RB dropout is probably going to miss games. I dislike both of those situations about equally, so I don't let a strict position strategy define my early rounds.

I didn't discuss QBs, but there are only 1-2 you'd take in place of a 1st or 2nd round RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

Looking at this in hindsight is a lot easier to make this argument. In the past, Ive found it quite difficult to pick the mid-late round RBs that you can count on to be your RB2, or better. Most of the time you have to get lucky and have a talented backup who becomes the starter due to injury. Last year I actually had Martin, McGahee, and Ridley each on at least 2 of my 3 teams, Spiller on 1, because I believed in their talent and situation (Spiller to a lesser degree in that regard) and thought they were great values.

That was last year though, this is this year. Many more RBs are going in the first 2 rounds this year, making it difficult to get a RB you can count on in even the 3rd round. Also, I dont see near as much talent and value in the mid-round RBs this year as I did last year. The only RBs I see going after the 4th round with a bettor's shot at ending up RB2's are Ivory, Bradshaw (I'll change my tune on him in a few weeks if he still is on PUP), and Ingram. Anyone else I think absolutely needs an injury to the guy ahead of them, or their RBBC counterpart.

Oh, and if you want to use the argument look at the RBs I couldve got in the 4th round or later last year, you couldve got Dez, Demaryius, VJax, Andre, Decker, Colston, Cobb, Wayne, Crabtree, and more WRs who finished as WR2's or better in the 4th round or later last year. It works both ways, RBs are just more scarce.

theres a lot more rbs going in the 4th to consider. mathews, mendenhall, bell, ball, bernard. gore sometimes drops. ridley often drops to 4th in ppr.

mathews and mendenhall in particular have little competition for workload.

DeAngelo Williams will likely outperform most of if not all of these guys.

 

[pantherclub]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

I discussed that conventional wisdom and what it actually means in detail on page 2, but here's the summary:

By saying "I don't draft first and second round RBs because WRs are safer," you're actually saying "I have low risk tolerance for injuries, which means I have less preference for RBs, the most injured position." The difference in your odds of being disappointed by an early pick of WR or RB are pretty negligible. The real difference between WR and RB dropouts is that a top ten WR dropout is more likely to give you 16 games of ~WR20-30ish production while an RB dropout is probably going to miss games. I dislike both of those situations about equally, so I don't let a strict position strategy define my early rounds.

I didn't discuss QBs, but there are only 1-2 you'd take in place of a 1st or 2nd round RB.

Theres injury and then there are full fledged busts. Which looking through the past 3 years top 12 happened more frequently for my tastes.

 

[We Tigers]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

I discussed that conventional wisdom and what it actually means in detail on page 2, but here's the summary:

By saying "I don't draft first and second round RBs because WRs are safer," you're actually saying "I have low risk tolerance for injuries, which means I have less preference for RBs, the most injured position." The difference in your odds of being disappointed by an early pick of WR or RB are pretty negligible. The real difference between WR and RB dropouts is that a top ten WR dropout is more likely to give you 16 games of ~WR20-30ish production while an RB dropout is probably going to miss games. I dislike both of those situations about equally, so I don't let a strict position strategy define my early rounds.

I didn't discuss QBs, but there are only 1-2 you'd take in place of a 1st or 2nd round RB.

Theres injury and then there are full fledged busts. Which looking through the past 3 years top 12 happened more frequently for my tastes.

Who are they? I did my analysis based on repeating performance since that was the original context, with a nod to ADP but not a focus on it. Our interpretation may also affect things; for example, I consider McFadden and Mathews to be injury busts from last year since they missed so many games and struggled with injury issues all year, but you may point out that their performances in the games they played wasn't great, either.

 

[pantherclub]

off the top of my head without going into my notes

Chris Johnson 2 years ago

MJD last year before his injury he was doing poorly

Forte

dmac (I guess you could argue he was hurt, but he still played)

Matthews - same with dmac

I know there are more but dont have it right in front of me. But it doesnt really matter if they just stink or are injured as you are not getting any points to justify that top pick. Add to the fact that most people never pull the plug on starting them until its too late then its a lot less risky to get a top 3 wr or a top 2 Qb. You simply know they are not going to let you down

 

[We Tigers]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

 

[pantherclub]

in my big money league the top 10 picked were Calvin, Roddy, Jones, Fitz, Andre J, AJ green, Welker, Marshall, Hakeen Nicks, Dez Bryant

Fitz was a true bust as was Nicks,

 

[LawFitz]

I find it interesting how many people still underestimate the bust factor at the RB position. QB and WR is much safer. Going RB-RB only increases your odds of at least one of them busting. Go with the safest RB available and supplement in either R1 or R2 with a top flight QB or WR or even Graham. Leave yourself room to hit on a later round RB2, or even off the wire in season. It can work if the rest of your team is firing.

This is for 6 pt passing TD leagues. 4 pt leagues, standard or not, are bunk IMO - QBs are too devalued due to VBD.

 

[Run It Up]

I find it interesting how many people still underestimate the bust factor at the RB position. QB and WR is much safer. Going RB-RB only increases your odds of at least one of them busting. Go with the safest RB available and supplement in either R1 or R2 with a top flight QB or WR or even Graham. Leave yourself room to hit on a later round RB2, or even off the wire in season. It can work if the rest of your team is firing.

This is for 6 pt passing TD leagues. 4 pt leagues, standard or not, are bunk IMO - QBs are too devalued due to VBD.

I don't disagree with most of this, I'm of the opinion that you should go RB/RB from pretty much every position this year, but I also think you should take the safest available RB - thats why Ray Rice is my RB3 this year.

 

[IZ4]

I'm of the opinion that you should go RB/RB from pretty much every position this year, but I also think you should take the safest available RB - thats why Ray Rice is my RB3 this year.

You're touching on something a lot of people don't like to discuss. A good majority of people don't actually play the entire game of FF. They start at the draft with cheat codes (read: other people's rankings) and then play the season from there. People are quick to say RB X is a bust because he was ranked at RB1 and didn't perform up to that level but not many are willing to accept the blame that they made a mistake. You rarely see someone take the safe pick when they are building a roster as the rush of the boom factor far outweighs the doubt of the bust factor.

 

[stbugs]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.

Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

 

[kutta]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

Exactly. Give me Graham and Dez, AJ, Julio, Marshall any day over Morris, Forte, and Jackson. If you are drafting at the end of the first and you take Jackson and Forte, you could be in some big trouble (injury and usage questions with Forte, age and usage questions with Jackson). I want 1st/2nd round picks that have the best chance of performing well all year, and at that point in the draft, you have to go for more security (TE or WR) than risk (RB).

 

[fightingillini]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

Exactly. Give me Graham and Dez, AJ, Julio, Marshall any day over Morris, Forte, and Jackson. If you are drafting at the end of the first and you take Jackson and Forte, you could be in some big trouble (injury and usage questions with Forte, age and usage questions with Jackson). I want 1st/2nd round picks that have the best chance of performing well all year, and at that point in the draft, you have to go for more security (TE or WR) than risk (RB).

I never recommended taking Forte AND Jackson. I said that I think you need ONE of the top 12 RBs. If I am drafting late, I am going RB in the first (I could take Calvin or Graham if I thought one of my top 12 will be there in the next round) and following it up with an elite receiver or Graham in the 2nd. So I agree that I would take Graham or AJ Green or Marshall before Forte or S Jackson.

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

 

[sithrich]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I just can't see not taking a RB (or 2) by the end of the second round this year. Of course everything depends on how the draft is going, but I don't see how you win without a top 15 preseason ranked RB, which is where you'll be if you skip RB in the first 2 rounds.

I'm sure one of Murray, MJD, Miller etc is going to break the top 12, possibly top 8ish. It happens every year. But which one? That's the big downside. And 15 backs still leaves 7 other owners without a RB2 on their roster past the second round in a 12 team league so you're competing with them plus anyone wanting to flex a RB. You just have to hit on RB later, against a shallow pool of unknowns (Miller, Bell, Lacy) injuries (MJD, McFadden, Murray) and RBBC (Carolina, CIN). It's ok to try with one guy to pick up Rodgers, Graham, or Mega (maybe Brees) but I think you will regret not taking someone in round 2 if you do.

The whole premise of "I'll just get someone like Bush or Miller later" is kind of a weird stance to me. It means you know you're getting them or are going to reach for them. It's easy to theorize a lineup taking WR/TE early for instance, another thing entirely to actually get it.

Enough people pick non-standard (ie not RB/RB) now days in most leagues I've joined in the past 3 years that upside down drafting just doesn't work. The premise is that you are zigging while everyone else zags. You're getting elite production from WR and QB and fliers on RB that noone else is taking because they already have 2 and now need other positions. It's just not working out that way anymore. Fantasy Football used to have no QB taken in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 1 or 2 WR in the first 2 rounds. It's just not that way anymore. You're not the sole person vying for the Lamar Millers and Eddy Lacys of the draft anymore, so relying on getting them is a fools game

The times I've gone WR/WR, I've typically grabbed 4-5 RB's in the next 8 rounds. The additional outs, so to speak, enhance your odds of finding solid value. You aren't gambling that any one of the guys pans out - you're gambling that at least two pan out.I don't think all of the 'safe' RB1s offer the security that a top 4 WR does, and I certainly don't think the RB2s do.

So the question to me boils down to, do I feel safer grabbing 2 RBs in late position and throwing a bunch of WR's at the wall, or vice versa.

Just wondering, who are your 'secure' top 4 WRs?

Who do you think?

Barring injury, Calvin, Dez, Green, Julio are going to put up numbers.

Calvin is really in his own tier. I would agree after him Green is the safest after him. Either way, both are going in the 1st round. Dez has 1 season in the top 5, a season where the starting RB was out when he really busted out and Austin hampered all year. I can easily see him dropping down to a low end WR1 with how close the top 12 WRs are. Julio has never finished better than WR9 so I dont see how he is secure as a top 4 by any means.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Looking at this in hindsight is a lot easier to make this argument. In the past, Ive found it quite difficult to pick the mid-late round RBs that you can count on to be your RB2, or better. Most of the time you have to get lucky and have a talented backup who becomes the starter due to injury. Last year I actually had Martin, McGahee, and Ridley each on at least 2 of my 3 teams, Spiller on 1, because I believed in their talent and situation (Spiller to a lesser degree in that regard) and thought they were great values.

That was last year though, this is this year. Many more RBs are going in the first 2 rounds this year, making it difficult to get a RB you can count on in even the 3rd round. Also, I dont see near as much talent and value in the mid-round RBs this year as I did last year. The only RBs I see going after the 4th round with a bettor's shot at ending up RB2's are Ivory, Bradshaw (I'll change my tune on him in a few weeks if he still is on PUP), and Ingram. Anyone else I think absolutely needs an injury to the guy ahead of them, or their RBBC counterpart.

Oh, and if you want to use the argument look at the RBs I couldve got in the 4th round or later last year, you couldve got Dez, Demaryius, VJax, Andre, Decker, Colston, Cobb, Wayne, Crabtree, and more WRs who finished as WR2's or better in the 4th round or later last year. It works both ways, RBs are just more scarce.

theres a lot more rbs going in the 4th to consider. mathews, mendenhall, bell, ball, bernard. gore sometimes drops. ridley often drops to 4th in ppr.

mathews and mendenhall in particular have little competition for workload.

I said after the 4th round. Bell and Ball are going in the 4th, and praying Gore or Ridley are available far past their ADP doesnt make much sense.

I guess Mathews could, but I want nothing to do with him. I'll give you Mendenhall as the one RB you mention that has a reasonable chance to finish as a low end RB2.

 

[Judge Smails]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

Exactly. Give me Graham and Dez, AJ, Julio, Marshall any day over Morris, Forte, and Jackson. If you are drafting at the end of the first and you take Jackson and Forte, you could be in some big trouble (injury and usage questions with Forte, age and usage questions with Jackson). I want 1st/2nd round picks that have the best chance of performing well all year, and at that point in the draft, you have to go for more security (TE or WR) than risk (RB).

I never recommended taking Forte AND Jackson. I said that I think you need ONE of the top 12 RBs. If I am drafting late, I am going RB in the first (I could take Calvin or Graham if I thought one of my top 12 will be there in the next round) and following it up with an elite receiver or Graham in the 2nd. So I agree that I would take Graham or AJ Green or Marshall before Forte or S Jackson.While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

What if at 11/14 two of your top 12 backs are available? Still take an elite WR with the 14th pick?

 

[Kenny Powers]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.

Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

 

[LawFitz]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.

Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

I like this group of top shelf RBs too, but I'm a believer that about four-five of the top ten will be bustarific again. Who will they be? That's the $1 MM question. I'd rather take one amongst the most safe on my board (due to positional scarcity), and pair with Calvin or Dez (or maybe a QB in 6 pt pass TD leagues). In my mind I have a 60% chance of hitting at RB and a 90+% chance of hitting with one of those two at WR. That may not be right at all, but my perception leads me that way each year. RB2 becomes a stream vehicle, but I like leaving my WR3/RB2 that way to an extent. Leaves room for wire hawking and such. Just my style of play, fwiw.

 

[Kenny Powers]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

 

[pantherclub]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

I have gone wr-wr-wr or qb-wr-wr or a close variation for almost 5 years now. 2 things happen here. You tend to be locked and loaded with your qb and wr position throughout the year and in the mid rounds you have your choice of that tier running back. Load up on those, pay attention to the waiver wire and who is hurt and I guarantee you if you are diligent you can find at the minimum one quality starter and another plug and play. Last year I rode Shown Greene, Andre Brown, Bryce Brown and vick ballard and Spiller into the finals. I got beat by the dude who had Morris.

 

[habsfan]

I never seem to be combing the waiver wire for WR or QB talent every week. It's always RBs I'm short on. I will be taking them early if they fall to me. You never seem to have too many decent ones...

 

[fightingillini]

This is a cool thread.

This year, I think there are 12 solid RBs, then another 12 or so that are OK but have question marks, then it gets really dicey.

My top 12 RBs are AP, Foster, Charles, Martin, Rice, Lynch, Spiller, Richardson, McCoy, Morris, Forte, and S Jackson.....IMO you HAVE to get one of these top 12 RBs, which means you need to take one in Round 1, unless you can get Calvin with the 11th pick, and that's highly unlikely.

The elephant in the room that some people refuse to acknowledge is that history shows that 6,7 or even 8 of those "top 12" will flame out or be busts. It simply is not the same rate with qb's or wr's.

Exactly. Give me Graham and Dez, AJ, Julio, Marshall any day over Morris, Forte, and Jackson. If you are drafting at the end of the first and you take Jackson and Forte, you could be in some big trouble (injury and usage questions with Forte, age and usage questions with Jackson). I want 1st/2nd round picks that have the best chance of performing well all year, and at that point in the draft, you have to go for more security (TE or WR) than risk (RB).

I never recommended taking Forte AND Jackson. I said that I think you need ONE of the top 12 RBs. If I am drafting late, I am going RB in the first (I could take Calvin or Graham if I thought one of my top 12 will be there in the next round) and following it up with an elite receiver or Graham in the 2nd. So I agree that I would take Graham or AJ Green or Marshall before Forte or S Jackson.While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

What if at 11/14 two of your top 12 backs are available? Still take an elite WR with the 14th pick?

If I could get a pretty good RB1 like Spiller or Richardson with the 11th pick, I could consider taking Forte or S Jackson with the 14, but I would probably still go elite WR.

I am taking the assumption that only Morris/Forte/S Jackson will be available at 11, and that my top 9 RBs are going in the 1st 10 picks, which is a pretty safe assumption.

 

[fightingillini]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

 

[pantherclub]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

I have never not "hit" on my mid round or free agent running backs. Never. Look at the top 12ish this year. I see 3 maybe 4 guys that were f/a's or mid rounds in there. Spiller, Morris, Ridley, Martin, Richardson and maybe sproles. (he was going late 3rd last year)

 

[L_O_D]

I never seem to be combing the waiver wire for WR or QB talent every week. It's always RBs I'm short on. I will be taking them early if they fall to me. You never seem to have too many decent ones...

1000% True. Post of the day.

This is really all that needs to be said. And I abhor the blind RB/RB strategy.

 

[chickensoup]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?I have gone wr-wr-wr or qb-wr-wr or a close variation for almost 5 years now. 2 things happen here. You tend to be locked and loaded with your qb and wr position throughout the year and in the mid rounds you have your choice of that tier running back. Load up on those, pay attention to the waiver wire and who is hurt and I guarantee you if you are diligent you can find at the minimum one quality starter and another plug and play. Last year I rode Shown Greene, Andre Brown, Bryce Brown and vick ballard and Spiller into the finals. I got beat by the dude who had Morris.

Almost seems like you should have just mentioned Spiller alone. Because that's what won you the league. What if instead you had gotten Roy Helu or Hillis? (Similar ADP per MFL)?

Anyone, no matter how they draft made out like a bandit getting Spiller when they likely did. But there's a huge difference in how much he's needed. I used Spiller as a Flex last year in one league and still had 3 good receivers (White, Harvin til injured, Wayne) whereas you needed him to hit or you missed the playoffs.

Risk vs Reward is what this is about. The upside down strategy can work. But it leans too much on luck with hitting a hard to predict position. One wrong selection in round 8 can cause you to basically automatically lose? Bid $1 less on FAAB causes you to not get Morris? Sorry, don't think it's best to follow that path

 

[kutta]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

You are talking about some really different guys here. Spiller is going very early (top 5), Lynch and McCoy are usually going in the top 8, and Jackson and Morris sometimes fall to the end of the first. So if you are picking at the end of round 1, no way are you having the choice of those guys. I guarantee you that if I'm drafting 12th and I see Spiller and Lynch, they will be on my team. Jackson and Morris? Not so sure about them.

But realistically, at least in all the mocks I've done, the only guy on your list available at pick 12 is Jackson. And I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to a 30 year old RB who just switched teams when I could grab Graham, Dez, or AJ in that spot.

 

[sithrich]

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

Every player can be a bust. An injury is always just a play or wet rubber mat away....

No such thing as bust proof.

 

[kutta]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

We all like taking RB's in round 1. But they have to be worthy of round 1. Some of the guys at the end of the first just have too many question marks this year. It is much "safer" to take a top WR/TE that has less of a chance of busting and fill out the RB's later.

 

[sithrich]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

You are talking about some really different guys here. Spiller is going very early (top 5), Lynch and McCoy are usually going in the top 8, and Jackson and Morris sometimes fall to the end of the first. So if you are picking at the end of round 1, no way are you having the choice of those guys. I guarantee you that if I'm drafting 12th and I see Spiller and Lynch, they will be on my team. Jackson and Morris? Not so sure about them.But realistically, at least in all the mocks I've done, the only guy on your list available at pick 12 is Jackson. And I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to a 30 year old RB who just switched teams when I could grab Graham, Dez, or AJ in that spot.

I'm my FPC draft both Lynch and McCoy lasted to my 10th pick. McCoy lasted to the 12th...

 

[butcher boy]

I'm not really seeing the huge risk with the late 1st round RBs this year. If you want first round risk, look at last year. Mathews, McFadden, and Murray were first rounders last year at this time.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

I'm not really seeing the huge risk with the late 1st round RBs this year. If you want first round risk, look at last year. Mathews, McFadden, and Murray were first rounders last year at this time.

Yeah, its hard to compare to last year, Charles and Peterson had their values reduced due to injuries. MJD was threatening to hold out. Lynch had a possible suspension looming. On top of that, Brees, Rodgers and Stafford were coming off huge years. Many people got burned last year because they reached on RBs like DMC, Murray and Mathews.

Fast forward a year; Spiller, Morris, Martin and Trent have all entered the conversation for top tier running backs. On top of that most of the top tier QBs regressed last year while players like Luck and RG3 make it look like QB has never been deeper.

Last year going a QB or Calvin early, and hitting on Peterson and/or Martin was the best case scenario. This year we may have 9 to 11 "safe" RB1's in the first round. I think the real dilemma is going to be people reaching on RB's in the 2nd because they have to draft rb-rb.

 

[Dez]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

You are talking about some really different guys here. Spiller is going very early (top 5), Lynch and McCoy are usually going in the top 8, and Jackson and Morris sometimes fall to the end of the first. So if you are picking at the end of round 1, no way are you having the choice of those guys. I guarantee you that if I'm drafting 12th and I see Spiller and Lynch, they will be on my team. Jackson and Morris? Not so sure about them.But realistically, at least in all the mocks I've done, the only guy on your list available at pick 12 is Jackson. And I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to a 30 year old RB who just switched teams when I could grab Graham, Dez, or AJ in that spot.

I'm my FPC draft both Lynch and McCoy lasted to my 10th pick. McCoy lasted to the 12th...

The FPC is a little different though and you are going to see Lynch falling to the 2nd round in many and McCoy could hang around the 10-12 area.

 

[Pumpnick]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

You are talking about some really different guys here. Spiller is going very early (top 5), Lynch and McCoy are usually going in the top 8, and Jackson and Morris sometimes fall to the end of the first. So if you are picking at the end of round 1, no way are you having the choice of those guys. I guarantee you that if I'm drafting 12th and I see Spiller and Lynch, they will be on my team. Jackson and Morris? Not so sure about them.But realistically, at least in all the mocks I've done, the only guy on your list available at pick 12 is Jackson. And I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to a 30 year old RB who just switched teams when I could grab Graham, Dez, or AJ in that spot.

I'm my FPC draft both Lynch and McCoy lasted to my 10th pick. McCoy lasted to the 12th...

The FPC is a little different though and you are going to see Lynch falling to the 2nd round in many and McCoy could hang around the 10-12 area.

lynch and mccoy have week 12 byes and that is the first week of the ffpc playoffs. thats probably why they will drop a little

 

[One]

I think a lot of it depends on league size.

In 10-12 teamers, my approach is a lot more loose. I don't mind taking WR or QB early and it usually works out fine cause the pool is bigger.

In 14-16 teamers, I've had very little success kicking off a draft with QB or WR. In these larger leagues, RBs are like gold. By Week 1 Kickoff, everybody already has every possible combination of RB starter, cuff, RBBC and scrub on their roster ...all while a hot new WR option arrives almost weekly.

I am a big trader in Fantasy Football. Since everyone in larger leagues needs/wants a RB, that's what I've found is the best early and mid-round position to draft.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Let's put some pen to paper here. Let's say you're drafting from the 11 or 12 hole. Which of these first four picks do you like the LEAST?

1. Two of Green, Dez, Julio, or Marshall PLUS two of Bell, Miller, and Gore

2. Two of Morris, Forte, SJax Plus two of Bowe, Nelson, Vjax

3. Combo WR/RB listed above Plus combo WR/RB listed above?

I will note that while I put this list together using MFL's ADP, I was surprised to see Miller and Gore so late since they never fall that far in mocks. On the other hand, Cruz, Roddy, and AJ usually slip to 36 and beyond. I find myself starting off with Morris, Sjax, White, and AJ which is just fine for my money.

Depends on format. But if you are swinging for the fences you go with #1. It has the largest risk associated but also has the highest upside. Waiver wire pickups win leagues, very few are won draft day.