pantherclub
Footballguy
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RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter prgromek
- Start date
Super King
Footballguy
Went RB-RB-RB in my 16 team PPR league off of all the hype (especially this thread)
But... with some timely waiver moves, and trading TRich for Cruz, I'm sitting at 4-3 with a pretty decent team
DWI
Footballguy
My best team so far is Charles second overall, Verren in the 5th, Woodhead in 10th, Knowshon in 11th. Some other missed running backs in the 8th,9th,12th,and 13th. Wanted to go rb,rb,rb in draft but the guys I wanted were gone and had to go rb, te, wr, wr. Will have to try something like this for now on, its the only team producing for me and its not even close.
Of course you still have to hit on your players.
Of course you still have to hit on your players.
Johnny Blood
Footballguy
Went RB-WR-RB-RB-RB in a 12 teamer and am tied for most wins. That's with taking David Wilson in the third. He's already cut.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Since you asked, here's my RB-heavy draft update.
I have Spiller, Murray, Vereen, J.Bell, Tate, and Ellington.
In other words, I'm very thin at RB right now.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Most opponents of waiting on all/some RBs until later in the draft can't wait to bring up the "if you hit big on late picks with any strategy, you'll be successful" as if it invalidates going non-RB early. What seems to be missing from their analysis is the fact that early RBs tend to have a lower hit percentage than early WRs or stud QB/TE.
My 20+ year league has always had an unusual scoring format that helps to equalize positional value, so I've always been open to drafting virtually any of the RB/WR/TE/QB quartet in any round, even in the heyday of the stud RB approach of the late 90s/early 2000s. Then, I did so for strategic reasons and in particular if I had an information advantage on RB battles. Now, it's become obvious that whether due to injury, ineffectiveness, RBBC, or the general pass-o-rama that the NFL has become, it's better to devalue RBs early in a draft.
Posters will correctly state that the scarcity of top RBs makes them more valuable. That's true, but which RBs are they going to be? Out of my top 12 preseason RBs, only four are performing anywhere close to their draft position, and of the four, two seem to be trending down. Meanwhile, 7 of 12 of the RBs ranked 13-24 in the preseason are performing very close to the level of the top tier.
Yes, you must hit on your players, but it becomes easier to do so when your earlier round selections have a higher hit ratio. And if you haven't noticed that several mid-to-late round RBs and waiver wire players emerge every year, you haven't been paying attention. I will still select RB value in the early rounds, but it will need to be a pretty good sale.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Mixed bag of sorts for me.
In my one league where I went Spiller-Richardson, I'm sitting at 4-3. Thanks mostly to Cameron, RG3, Eddie Lacy, and Antonio Brown.
Went RB-RB in a 14-team and I'm 4-3. Went Richardson-MJD. Neither of them are doing much of anything.
My 2 leagues I went RB-WR, I'm 6-1 and 5-2.
In my one league where I went Spiller-Richardson, I'm sitting at 4-3. Thanks mostly to Cameron, RG3, Eddie Lacy, and Antonio Brown.
Went RB-RB in a 14-team and I'm 4-3. Went Richardson-MJD. Neither of them are doing much of anything.
My 2 leagues I went RB-WR, I'm 6-1 and 5-2.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I went RB, RB, RB and got lucky this year as I hit on all three of them (Charles, Forte, Bush). Because we can start a RB in the Flex I have been pretty dominate this year and am sitting at 7-0. I did not intend to go RB for the first three rounds but that's how it worked out. I drafted from the 7 spot in a 12 team non PPR. I was targeting AJ Green, or Dez in round 2 and A. Johnson or Fitz in the 3rd. I feel I got lucky not getting any of them as Forte and Bush have out scored any of the WRs I could have drafted.
I will admit that I was extremely lucky and picking almost any other backs that were available would have been a disaster.
In week four I traded Bush, Cruz, Cameron for Foster, Green, Clay so my current RB's are Charles, Forte, Foster, Tate, Ellington. WR's are Green, Gordon, K Allen. Having three dominate RB's feels like cheating most weeks and wouldn't trade any of them for any one shy of Payton plus a RB2.
I will admit that I was extremely lucky and picking almost any other backs that were available would have been a disaster.
In week four I traded Bush, Cruz, Cameron for Foster, Green, Clay so my current RB's are Charles, Forte, Foster, Tate, Ellington. WR's are Green, Gordon, K Allen. Having three dominate RB's feels like cheating most weeks and wouldn't trade any of them for any one shy of Payton plus a RB2.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Have you guys learned your lesson yet?
pantherclub
Footballguy
So much fail on this thread. I wonder if Kenny p will admit that he is wrong.Peterson
Foster
Martin
Charles
Lynch
Rice
Spiller
Richardson
McCoy
Morris
Forte
Jackson
So 6-8 of these guys will bust? Meaning, finish worse than RB18 say (mid level RB2). I doubt it, but can you tell me me which 6-8 of the 12 will be those busts Nostrapantherclub?
Guy who (is about to) win the title in my big money league went J Charles, Forte & D Murray with his first 3 picks. The guy who many thought had the best team to start the season went Calvin, Julio & Larry Fitz with his first 3... he missed the playoffs.
pantherclub
Footballguy
AhemAnything can be a truth until you are proven wrong.the truth, I speak itOut of all the people who post in this thread, you're my favorite.
Gawain
Footballguy
The only lesson to be gained is that if none of your picks get hurt or bust, you're going to be in good shape.
There were three non-injury busts on that list, Rice, Spiller and T-RIch.
pantherclub
Footballguy
that's three of the top 7 picks this year.
Gawain
Footballguy
To be honest, I don't really know. There's the old adage that you can't win your league in the first three rounds...but you sure can lose it.
Do you have top 10/12 WR for 2013? Curious as to their bust rate.
In hindsight, Peyton would have been 1.01 I imagine. Maybe the lesson is to take safe guys...there were , if not flags, at least question marks around Spiller and Richardson. Rice was a surprise to most of us I imagine...I remember at one point thinking he could be 1.01 in a redraft PPR league...whoops.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Woodhead, Murray and Donald Brown just beat Charles, Gore Moreno. I'm sure those are the only factors in play
Gawain
Footballguy
I'm open to the idea that the "RB run" shouldn't happen, but I don't think the decision can be made on anecdotal evidence from one league here or there.
In my keeper league the guy who has McCoy and Lacy would have won the Super Bowl...if he hadn't gotten bounced because he faced Justin Tucker last week. He's handily winning third place.
In another, Charles almost single handedly carried the #7 seed to the Super Bowl.
Neither of these outcomes speak to the overall value of running backs, just different outcomes in leagues.
just_want_2_win
Footballguy
Next year I'm waiting until the last two rounds of the draft to select my RBs.
purestrength
Footballguy
Next year I think I won't even draft RBs, then I'll wait til the first few good ones emerge in free agency and scoop em up.
MattFancy
Footballguy
If Gore doesn't get at least 12 points in one league I'm in, my Eddie Lacy could outscore his Gore/Bush/AP trio. And he needs 16 from Gore to not be outscored by Lacy/Dennis Johnson.
Strange year for RBs for sure. Alot of the highly picked guys like Rice, Spiller, Martin, Richardson, SJax, Sproles, McFadden, Ridley, Wilson, and Miller were all disappointments.
When you look at some of the top WRs drafted, most of them outside of Julio, Cruz, and Colston, all had good years.
Makes me want to think about my draft strategy for next year. Wait on a RB? Take one of the top RBs early? I'm not sure.
Strange year for RBs for sure. Alot of the highly picked guys like Rice, Spiller, Martin, Richardson, SJax, Sproles, McFadden, Ridley, Wilson, and Miller were all disappointments.
When you look at some of the top WRs drafted, most of them outside of Julio, Cruz, and Colston, all had good years.
Makes me want to think about my draft strategy for next year. Wait on a RB? Take one of the top RBs early? I'm not sure.
Koya
Footballguy
What I recall is that there was not much clarity at the top if the RB board this year at draft time. AP was the clear #1, with some question as to workload last year coming off the injury. D Martin was your consensus #2, but not a strong one. Some questions about his QB, his line and coach but he was a huge disappointment being outplayed by his replacements.
After that guys like Charles has a new coach and system and lots of upside ... Same with McCoy. But again there were nagging questions about most of the top guys and valid arguments for guys to go top 3 or bottom of the top ten.
MattFancy
Footballguy
True, but I don't think many people thought Rice, Spiller, and Martin would all be disappointments. You can make a case for Richardson, but even he was getting some hype come draft time. I just think RB is a position where there is more bust potential and you can find some late round gems. You would've been fine at RB in PPR leagues this year with Moreno, Woodhead, and Pierre Thomas. You could have gotten all those guys probably in the 8th round later in the draft.
Almost all of the guys who busted except for Rice had very little track record. The moral of the story here is maybe do not take Lacy or Stacy with a top ten pick next year. There were some good values this year that were pretty much no brainers, in my opinion. McCoy and Charles at the front were great picks and could be anticipated. I thought Peterson would fall back to earth as nobody who cracks 2000 rushing repeats the next year. At the back of the first round, Forte was probably the pick of the year, Bush was also very good. Both of those could be predicted by people who have their eyes open.
All in all, if there are any lessons to be learned...go with sure things at the front of the draft and take your chances with upside in the middle rounds. Honestly, the single best early pick this year was probably an owner who snagged Jimmy Graham at anywhere between the 8th and 12th pick.
All in all, if there are any lessons to be learned...go with sure things at the front of the draft and take your chances with upside in the middle rounds. Honestly, the single best early pick this year was probably an owner who snagged Jimmy Graham at anywhere between the 8th and 12th pick.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Truth. I got away with drafting T-Rich 3rd overall before McCoy (shoot me) and Wilson in the 4th right before Lacy (just as bad). Difference makers were Dez in round 2, Graham in round 3 and Josh Gordon in round 8, those won me my league, not to mention Dalton towards the end to back up Luck. Trading for Garcon and Bush mid-season helped some but really I won it with only one decent RB and he **** the bed in the championship game anyway.
Koya
Footballguy
RB early is the high risk, high reward approach. It's still a general consensus that in most leagues, if - IF - you have one of the too 2-3 RBs in a given year you have a nice advantage, and if you get a J Charles type of year (or even better, those referenced in this thread with LT2, Faulk, Priest) that's a tremendous advantage going into any given week. We just haven't seen a WR clear that type of room as compared to the competition (maybe if megatons record setting year last year also saw 16 TDs). That's said, a lot more chance for injury and other ups and downs at the position compared with the safer WR route, or QB route. QB being diminished because in a start one QB league there's enough depth to always start someone pretty good at least as compared to the #25-30 RB some weeks.
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