RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)

[Kenny Powers]

Let's put some pen to paper here. Let's say you're drafting from the 11 or 12 hole. Which of these first four picks do you like the LEAST?

1. Two of Green, Dez, Julio, or Marshall PLUS two of Bell, Miller, and Gore

2. Two of Morris, Forte, SJax Plus two of Bowe, Nelson, Vjax

3. Combo WR/RB listed above Plus combo WR/RB listed above?

I will note that while I put this list together using MFL's ADP, I was surprised to see Miller and Gore so late since they never fall that far in mocks. On the other hand, Cruz, Roddy, and AJ usually slip to 36 and beyond. I find myself starting off with Morris, Sjax, White, and AJ which is just fine for my money.

Dont know which I like most, but I like Scenario 1 the least, by a lot. I have a feeling a few weeks from now you would be lucky to get 2 of those RBs picking end of 3rd/beginning of 4th round. Gore's ADP is a half round+ higher than that, and I have a feeling Bell's ADP is going to vault up a full round over during preseason.

 

[Kenny Powers]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

I have gone wr-wr-wr or qb-wr-wr or a close variation for almost 5 years now. 2 things happen here. You tend to be locked and loaded with your qb and wr position throughout the year and in the mid rounds you have your choice of that tier running back. Load up on those, pay attention to the waiver wire and who is hurt and I guarantee you if you are diligent you can find at the minimum one quality starter and another plug and play. Last year I rode Shown Greene, Andre Brown, Bryce Brown and vick ballard and Spiller into the finals. I got beat by the dude who had Morris.

Because typically 15 RBs are going in the first 2 rounds. If youre ignoring that position in the first 2 rounds, your chances of landing a RB1 is very slim. As I also said earlier, the RBs going in the first 2 rounds list year are not risky picks, theyre all proven guys or young players whose talent/situation make it more unlikely than usual they will bust this year.

I dont think Shonn Greene carried anyone into the finals last year. Thats a mid round guy that ended up being a decent RB2, which is another thing that I think looks different this year. Last year you probably got Greene in the 5th or 6th round, and got what you paid for from him. The RBs going in that range this year I have much less confidence in putting up a solid yet unspectacular season like that.

My leagues are deep (12 teams, 1QB/2RB/2WR/TE/2 flex plus 10 player bench), so it is hard to find even flex worthy RBs on the WW. Id guess at least 60 RBs are typically rostered at any given time. No, Andre Brown, Bryce Brown, Ballard werent drafted in my leagues from what I recall, but those are the type of guys whoever has 1st waiver priority gets every time, and they never see the WW again (barring injury).

I realize being smart with the WW for RBs is big if you go with your strategy of waiting for RBs on your roster, but typically those guys are only short term (3-4 weeks) lineup fill ins anyway.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Just took Graham at 2.5 (after taking Richardson at 1.8) in a 12 team PPR redraft and am scared at what my RBs might look like. But Graham was too good to pass on right?

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think a lot of it depends on league size.

In 10-12 teamers, my approach is a lot more loose. I don't mind taking WR or QB early and it usually works out fine cause the pool is bigger.

In 14-16 teamers, I've had very little success kicking off a draft with QB or WR. In these larger leagues, RBs are like gold. By Week 1 Kickoff, everybody already has every possible combination of RB starter, cuff, RBBC and scrub on their roster ...all while a hot new WR option arrives almost weekly.

I am a big trader in Fantasy Football. Since everyone in larger leagues needs/wants a RB, that's what I've found is the best early and mid-round position to draft.

Good point that hasnt really been brought up in here. While I dont play in any 14-16 teamers, our 12 team rosters are deep enough where its probably equivalent to a 14 team league.

The 10 team leagues Ive played in I can definitely see waiting on RBs making more sense. In those leagues that Ive done, its more difficult for me to figure out who I want to start/sit than having a lack of starter worthy players on my bench, which Ive had trouble with on occasion for RBs or WRs in the leagues I play in every year.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is the ADP from MFL 12team PPR redraft 1243 drafts are in this sample:


1. 1.01 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.73 1 14
2. 1.02 Martin, Doug TBB RB 3.07 1 12
3. 1.03 Foster, Arian HOU RB 4.34 1 24
4. 1.04 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 4.59 1 21
5. 1.05 Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 5.76 1 23
6. 1.06 Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 7.04 1 21
7. 1.07 Richardson, Trent CLE 7.10 1 24
8. 1.08 Rice, Ray BAL RB 8.31 1 27
9. 1.09 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 8.54 1 25
10. 1.10 Green, A.J. CIN WR 11.12 1 31
11. 1.11 Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 11.73 3 31
12. 1.12 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 14.16 3 37

13. 2.01 Morris, Alfred WAS RB 15.41 2 36
14. 2.02 Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 15.55 3 34
15. 2.03 Marshall, Brandon CHI 15.70 4 34
16. 2.04 Jones, Julio ATL WR 15.91 3 44
17. 2.05 Forte, Matt CHI RB 16.08 6 51
18. 2.06 Thomas, Demaryius DEN 19.70 6 47
19. 2.07 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 23.12 1 57
20. 2.08 Johnson, Chris TEN RB 23.46 7 68
21. 2.09 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 25.69 8 57
22. 2.10 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI 27.08 8 61
23. 2.11 Jackson, Steven ATL RB 27.50 5 130
24. 2.12 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC 28.26 8 107

25. 3.01 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 30.14 11 77
26. 3.02 Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 30.17 5 79
27. 3.03 Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 30.44 12 94
28. 3.04 Brees, Drew NOS QB 31.49 1 70
29. 3.05 McFadden, Darren OAK RB 31.61 12 117
30. 3.06 Sproles, Darren NOS RB 31.64 11 150
31. 3.07 Wilson, David NYG RB 31.76 7 69
32. 3.08 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 32.05 9 59
33. 3.09 White, Roddy ATL WR 32.22 13 79
34. 3.10 Bush, Reggie DET RB 32.43 11 108
35. 3.11 Harvin, Percy SEA WR* 32.78 5 273
36. 3.12 Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 33.37 12 145

37. 4.01 Miller, Lamar MIA RB 38.91 17 106
38. 4.02 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 39.28 18 77
39. 4.03 Newton, Cam CAR QB 43.40 3 92
40. 4.04 Gore, Frank SFO RB 43.48 6 159
41. 4.05 Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR 43.70 19 75
42. 4.06 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 44.01 19 90
43. 4.07 Welker, Wes DEN WR 45.59 9 121
44. 4.08 Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR 47.25 18 88
45. 4.09 Colston, Marques NOS WR 49.28 26 95
46. 4.10 Witten, Jason DAL TE 50.19 13 94
47. 4.11 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 52.26 16 151
48. 4.12 Amendola, Danny NEP WR 52.80 18 164

49. 5.01 Manning, Peyton DEN QB 52.81 1 159
50. 5.02 Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 53.24 17 148
51. 5.03 Wallace, Mike MIA WR 54.37 22 87
52. 5.04 Brady, Tom NEP QB 56.31 1 189
53. 5.05 Decker, Eric DEN WR 56.89 25 101
54. 5.06 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 58.17 20 98
55. 5.07 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 58.50 25 99
56. 5.08 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 58.85 27 101
57. 5.09 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 60.62 3 569
58. 5.10 Ball, Montee DEN RB 60.73 2 567
59. 5.11 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 61.59 2 111
60. 5.12 Kaepernick, Colin SFO 62.64 2 142

61. 6.01 Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 62.77 6 571
62. 6.02 Luck, Andrew IND QB 66.85 3 152
63. 6.03 Davis, Vernon SFO TE 67.02 23 141
64. 6.04 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 68.10 1 565
65. 6.05 Griffin III, Robert WAS 68.18 3 139
66. 6.06 Stafford, Matthew DET 69.30 4 116
67. 6.07 Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 71.51 11 225
68. 6.08 Wilson, Russell SEA QB 72.29 3 141
69. 6.09 Johnson, Stevie BUF WR 72.43 42 132
70. 6.10 Jennings, Greg MIN WR 74.33 40 185
71. 6.11 Smith, Steve CAR WR 74.96 35 231
72. 6.12 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 75.08 20 287

73. 7.01 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 75.49 25 135
74. 7.02 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 77.47 25 154
75. 7.03 Jones, James GBP WR 77.84 29 178
76. 7.04 Austin, Tavon STL WR 78.65 4 566
77. 7.05 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 78.70 25 162
78. 7.06 Vereen, Shane NEP RB 80.28 30 294
79. 7.07 Mendenhall, Rashard ARI 81.76 35 238
80. 7.08 Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR* 82.86 45 293
81. 7.09 Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 84.65 22 134
82. 7.10 Romo, Tony DAL QB 84.96 17 193
83. 7.11 Britt, Kenny TEN WR 86.63 39 211
84. 7.12 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 86.91 47 181

I believe in remaining flexible in the draft at all times and to draft for value. What I see from the ADP here is that there are many RB drafted in the 3rd round who are risky. So drafting 2RB before that group helps you avoid some of that risk.

The 4th round is heavy at WR so having a WR before this run is likely a good idea. If you can get Frank Gore here (currently going 4.04) that would be great value I think and support the drafting at other positions pretty well. But I bet he becomes a 3rd round pick soon if he isn't already.

5th round the best values are the 3QB I do not like the WR or RB being drafted there.

The 6th round has 4 QB so you may want to have one before this round.

Romo seems like a great value at QB right now. Shane Vereen and TY Hilton may be overdrafted.

 

[Kenny Powers]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

I have never not "hit" on my mid round or free agent running backs. Never. Look at the top 12ish this year. I see 3 maybe 4 guys that were f/a's or mid rounds in there. Spiller, Morris, Ridley, Martin, Richardson and maybe sproles. (he was going late 3rd last year)

Oh bull####. Even the best players in FF miss on certain guys, and WW RBs are luck of the draw.

And none of the top 12 were FA's last year. The only guys who you could call mid rounders were Spiller and Morris. Spiller, because he was a backup and with FJax getting hurt week 1 you essentially got a starting RB for backup value. Morris is truly a rarity. Him being a mid round pick was a combination of doubt on his preseason performance, lack of pedigree as a prospect, and most importantly Shanahanigans and no one wanting to deal with that. He is the true needle in a haystack, 1/20 or 5% chance you have at finding a RB1 in the mid rounds.

 

[amicsta]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

GL finding your RB1 and RB2 with the guys youll have available in the 4th round on

Last year from the 4rth and on you could have had, Spiller, Bradshaw (your boy), Spoles, Martin, BJE, Mcgahee, Ridley, Greene etc. Meanwhile 6 of the top 10 rb's were total flameouts and busts and the next 4 past the top 10 Forte, Dmac, Murray and Matthews were pretty bad. Picking a RB at the top is a high percentage bust rate. I could post the wideouts picked that high and their success rate but I think you get he picture.

When the rest of the teams are filling out their wr's and qb's from round 4 on very few of them are locking in more running backs allowing teams like me to load up on those guys knowing one, two and maybe 3 will hit. This doesnt even factor in the f/a you can pick up Morris, Brown, Brown etc to plug and play when one of those top picks go down with injury.

Running backs going 1,2 rounds is a prehistoric way to play IMO

You arent going to have that kind of turnover every year though. Last season was a "changing of the guard" of sorts at RB. Now, many of the top guys are young and talented as opposed to last year when it was loaded with risk. That tells me that RB early is the play this year because I don't expect the guys I like early to flame out.

 

[Kenny Powers]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

You are talking about some really different guys here. Spiller is going very early (top 5), Lynch and McCoy are usually going in the top 8, and Jackson and Morris sometimes fall to the end of the first. So if you are picking at the end of round 1, no way are you having the choice of those guys. I guarantee you that if I'm drafting 12th and I see Spiller and Lynch, they will be on my team. Jackson and Morris? Not so sure about them.

But realistically, at least in all the mocks I've done, the only guy on your list available at pick 12 is Jackson. And I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to a 30 year old RB who just switched teams when I could grab Graham, Dez, or AJ in that spot.

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

We all like taking RB's in round 1. But they have to be worthy of round 1. Some of the guys at the end of the first just have too many question marks this year. It is much "safer" to take a top WR/TE that has less of a chance of busting and fill out the RB's later.

Im just not seeing that. In previous years, yes. This year, not so much. Really the only guy I think that can apply to is Morris, but he doesnt seem to have much risk either. You dont just trip and fall into 1600yd rushing seasons as a rookie.

Going along with your previous post on "Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson", you claim they are different guys, but Id disagree. Just to streamline things, Dodds has the first 4 RBs there projected within 6 pts of each other, for the entire season. Thats basically the opposite of different. Really, which one of those RBs is available near/at the end of the 1st I think depends on preference of the people picking ahead of you more than anything.

SJax is the outlier of the group, and for good reason. I realize why you would be the least high on him. But is he so far behind the other RBs already picked where you completely skip him? I understand not going RB/RB at this point, but whether I go with an elite WR, QB, or Graham, Im having trouble conceiving the notion of not taking SJax (or Forte) with my other pick. SJax is a lot closer to the RBs picked before him than the ones you can pick from in Round 3, IMO (and Dodds' )

 

[amicsta]

Let's put some pen to paper here. Let's say you're drafting from the 11 or 12 hole. Which of these first four picks do you like the LEAST?

1. Two of Green, Dez, Julio, or Marshall PLUS two of Bell, Miller, and Gore

2. Two of Morris, Forte, SJax Plus two of Bowe, Nelson, Vjax

3. Combo WR/RB listed above Plus combo WR/RB listed above?

I will note that while I put this list together using MFL's ADP, I was surprised to see Miller and Gore so late since they never fall that far in mocks. On the other hand, Cruz, Roddy, and AJ usually slip to 36 and beyond. I find myself starting off with Morris, Sjax, White, and AJ which is just fine for my money.

Definitely scenario 2 for me (although it would have to be Forte and SJax for me). Here are my rankings for the players you listed at their position (.5 ppr)

1) 5, 2, 7, 3.....23, 25, 15

2) 16, 7, 10.....13, 8, 12

Now the player rankings are obviously a matter for debate, but I do make my own projections and rankings so I like to trust them. In scenario 1, I'm definitely scoring at WR, but giving up a LOT at RB. In scenario 2, I'm nabbing 2 top 10 RBs in Forte and SJax (I'd pass on Morris like I said) and can still snag 2 WR1s (according to my rankings) at the next turn of picks. No brainer imo

 

[LususV]

What's the point differential between AJ, Julio, Dez, Marshall and guys like White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson?

White, VJax, Cobb, A.Johnson are going in the 3rd to early 4th rounds...

What's the point differential between Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, and RBs taken in rounds 3&4?

To me DMC, Gore, Ridley, Matthews, Miller, Wilson, Ball, Bell, Murray are all much higher risks for being a bust then any of the top 10-12 RBs. I wouldn't want to trust these guys to act as my#1 RB...

Just my preference.

You are talking about some really different guys here. Spiller is going very early (top 5), Lynch and McCoy are usually going in the top 8, and Jackson and Morris sometimes fall to the end of the first. So if you are picking at the end of round 1, no way are you having the choice of those guys. I guarantee you that if I'm drafting 12th and I see Spiller and Lynch, they will be on my team. Jackson and Morris? Not so sure about them.But realistically, at least in all the mocks I've done, the only guy on your list available at pick 12 is Jackson. And I'm not ready to hitch my wagon to a 30 year old RB who just switched teams when I could grab Graham, Dez, or AJ in that spot.

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

We all like taking RB's in round 1. But they have to be worthy of round 1. Some of the guys at the end of the first just have too many question marks this year. It is much "safer" to take a top WR/TE that has less of a chance of busting and fill out the RB's later.

Im just not seeing that. In previous years, yes. This year, not so much. Really the only guy I think that can apply to is Morris, but he doesnt seem to have much risk either. You dont just trip and fall into 1600yd rushing seasons as a rookie.

Going along with your previous post on "Spiller, Lynch, Morris, McCoy, Jackson", you claim they are different guys, but Id disagree. Just to streamline things, Dodds has the first 4 RBs there projected within 6 pts of each other, for the entire season. Thats basically the opposite of different. Really, which one of those RBs is available near/at the end of the 1st I think depends on preference of the people picking ahead of you more than anything.

SJax is the outlier of the group, and for good reason. I realize why you would be the least high on him. But is he so far behind the other RBs already picked where you completely skip him? I understand not going RB/RB at this point, but whether I go with an elite WR, QB, or Graham, Im having trouble conceiving the notion of not taking SJax (or Forte) with my other pick. SJax is a lot closer to the RBs picked before him than the ones you can pick from in Round 3, IMO (and Dodds' )

This is precisely why I hate expected value projections. Spiller's upside is much higher than Lynch's (his odds of averaging 20+ ppg (PPR) are higher), but his floor is much lower (odds of less than 13 ppg are also higher). Average everything out, and they look identical, but are anything but.

Count me in the corner that upside is how you win in fantasy football, and you'll see why I never own Lynch, heh.

 

[Run It Up]

Let's put some pen to paper here. Let's say you're drafting from the 11 or 12 hole. Which of these first four picks do you like the LEAST?

1. Two of Green, Dez, Julio, or Marshall PLUS two of Bell, Miller, and Gore

2. Two of Morris, Forte, SJax Plus two of Bowe, Nelson, Vjax

3. Combo WR/RB listed above Plus combo WR/RB listed above?

I will note that while I put this list together using MFL's ADP, I was surprised to see Miller and Gore so late since they never fall that far in mocks. On the other hand, Cruz, Roddy, and AJ usually slip to 36 and beyond. I find myself starting off with Morris, Sjax, White, and AJ which is just fine for my money.

Definitely scenario 2 for me (although it would have to be Forte and SJax for me). Here are my rankings for the players you listed at their position (.5 ppr)

1) 5, 2, 7, 3.....23, 25, 15

2) 16, 7, 10.....13, 8, 12

Now the player rankings are obviously a matter for debate, but I do make my own projections and rankings so I like to trust them. In scenario 1, I'm definitely scoring at WR, but giving up a LOT at RB. In scenario 2, I'm nabbing 2 top 10 RBs in Forte and SJax (I'd pass on Morris like I said) and can still snag 2 WR1s (according to my rankings) at the next turn of picks. No brainer imo

Same in mocks I'm doing Gore is regularly a late 2nd early 3rd, and White is a mid-late 3rd and Cruz is a early 4th. Almost like clockwork.

 

[stbugs]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.

Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

 

[chickensoup]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

 

[Broncobiv]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

 

[Run It Up]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

Offer everyone in your league the opportunity to buy out, if they decline take an RB2 and a WR1.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

Offer everyone in your league the opportunity to buy out, if they decline take an RB2 and a WR1.

Yeah, no sense in splitting here. While you may have a stud RB1, if you dont get a solid RB2 there you are pretty much giving away the advantage you had starting out with a stud RB. Looking at those RB/RB/RB or WR/WR/WR posts tells the tale even more, that you go RB/WR - or vice versa - with those picks. You cant ignore either position, and youre off to a great start.

 

[Broncobiv]

Is it that obvious, to split the round 2/3 picks between a RB2 and a WR1? I thought it sounded pretty nice to have a first-tier RB (from pick 1-3) to go along with two top-10 WR's. But I guess it just hurts your RB corps too much to wait till the end of round 4 for your RB2.

What about in a PPR format? Does that change things, making it viable to go RB/WR/WR with a top-3 pick?

 

[Run It Up]

Is it that obvious, to split the round 2/3 picks between a RB2 and a WR1? I thought it sounded pretty nice to have a first-tier RB (from pick 1-3) to go along with two top-10 WR's. But I guess it just hurts your RB corps too much to wait till the end of round 4 for your RB2.

What about in a PPR format? Does that change things, making it viable to go RB/WR/WR with a top-3 pick?

I assumed PPR tbh, I think its better to do it in non-ppr but in ppr its still the best imo, I would really only consider going RB/RB/RB or RB/RB/TE (Graham/Gronk) after RB/RB/WR and would exclude RB/WR/WR entirely, everyone else is going RB heavy, WRs will slip even further. Basically the 1-5 seats get the luxury of a top 5 RB, a RB2, a WR1 and a WR2 in their first 4 picks, no one else gets close to that. If you wanna take a third RB in the first 3 picks, you can get away with some stuff, but its risky imo. You can throw together some nice WRs in the 4/5 say Amendola and Brown or Nicks, and then in the 6/7 I've seen Brady, Stafford and Ryan slip this far, you can go QB/WR pretty safely with say a Mike Wiliams or Miles Austin.

Its just much less safe IMO than going RB/RB/WR, although you do miss out on some of that mid-round WR value taking your RB3.

 

[We Tigers]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

Take the value that's there. I agree with the previous responses that it's most likely to be RB/WR. If Graham slips, he would be hard to pass up; similarly, if there's a QB run or the RB run continues, you could find yourself staring at two of Marshall, Julio, and Thomas. Still, I'd be inclined to take Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, or Darren Sproles, and grab someone like Nicks or Garçon as my WR2 towards the end of the 4th/early 5th.

 

[G5781]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

 

[Ilov80s]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

Take the value that's there. I agree with the previous responses that it's most likely to be RB/WR. If Graham slips, he would be hard to pass up; similarly, if there's a QB run or the RB run continues, you could find yourself staring at two of Marshall, Julio, and Thomas. Still, I'd be inclined to take Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, or Darren Sproles, and grab someone like Nicks or Garçon as my WR2 towards the end of the 4th/early 5th.

I find my options usually being some combo of Julio/Demaryius/Graham/Andre/Fitz/MJD/Gore/White... I don't think you can go wrong pairing Peterson or Foster with any of these 2 players. If you decide to take 2 non RBs, I think you are ok because you have such a strong, reliable #1 RB. There are RBs later on down that you can stockpile at a good value and expect that 1 of them is strong enough to be consistently started.

 

[chickensoup]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

Take the value that's there. I agree with the previous responses that it's most likely to be RB/WR. If Graham slips, he would be hard to pass up; similarly, if there's a QB run or the RB run continues, you could find yourself staring at two of Marshall, Julio, and Thomas. Still, I'd be inclined to take Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, or Darren Sproles, and grab someone like Nicks or Garçon as my WR2 towards the end of the 4th/early 5th.

I find my options usually being some combo of Julio/Demaryius/Graham/Andre/Fitz/MJD/Gore/White... I don't think you can go wrong pairing Peterson or Foster with any of these 2 players. If you decide to take 2 non RBs, I think you are ok because you have such a strong, reliable #1 RB. There are RBs later on down that you can stockpile at a good value and expect that 1 of them is strong enough to be consistently started.

It's going to depend on what's available to you in all reality. People are down on CJ and MJD this year. If one of them slips to you, I can't see passing them up as they are really the only ones available to you that could realistically grant top 5 seasons. And if they don't they are still a great bet, outside of injury, to still give top 15 numbers (ie live up to draft position). Pretty consistantly you can get either guy plus a pretty fantastic WR (usually Thomas, Andre Johnson, or Marshall). I would follow that up with either WR/QB at 4/5 or if you feel comfortable WR/WR.

 

[Leonidas]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

Standard scoring, 3 wide, no flex, pick 2 or 4 of 12, is my perspective. In the second I take Graham if he is there. If not I look for Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones or Chris Johnson. One of those choices should be there. If not then Brees probably is,but I don't think it'll get to that point.

In the third I look for Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, or Roddy White. Some other WR too.

With an elite RB1 I am willing to wait on RB2 in order to get players I consider elite at other positions. If I come out of the turn with RB/TE/WR or RB/WR/WR I often take two RB'S at 4/5. I can take anybody that fell through the cracks and I can take one of those non - durable (wouldn't want to say injury prone because that doesn't t exist...) RB's like Ryan Mathews

 

[Runningman]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

The one point differences in points between the 6th Wr and the 16th cannot be in a ppr league with 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per td. Thomas, 6th best WR averaged 18.21 per game in that format. Cobb, 16th averaged 16.31 but missed his last game. If cobb scored his average that last game he would have been more like the 10th best WR. the 15t best WR , Crabtree, averaged 15.64. The 6th best RB in that format, Spiller, averaged 15.96, 16th best RB, Sjax averaged 12.52.

Thomas plus Sjax is 30.73, Spiller plus crabtree is 31.6.

The top ten WRs averaged 18.5 points per game, Top ten RBs averaged 17.2 points per game. WRs 11 to 20 averaged 15.1 points per game. RBs 11 to 20 averaged 13.7 points per game.

In average points per game the following is very interesting.

Top ten RBs plus 11 to 20 WRs is 32.3 points per game.

Top Ten WRs plus 11 to 20 RBs is 32.2 points per game.

Drafting from the late spots (say 10, 11, 12,) can you find two top ten WRs going WR/WR? In all the other rounds can you find two RBs that can pierce the top twenty? Can you find two top ten RBs? In all the other rounds can you find two WRs that can pierce the top 20?

 

[fightingillini]

While it may be true that 1st round QBs and WRs don't bust as much as RBs, that strategy assumes that you will hit on your RBs later. While that can be done, that's a tall order. So it really doesn't matter that you're 1st round QB didn't bust....if you don't draft the later RBs well, you don't win. Where as if a 1st round RB busts, you also won't be in good shape, but my experience is.......it's very rare to win a title without good RBs. So it's a better strategy to take at least 1 RB in the 1st 2 rounds.

This is what many of the people who think going WR/WR is better this year are relying on, saying theyll pick a handful of RBs in the mid rounds and a couple will hit. While that can happen and work, I agree with you its much harder to do that it sounds. These RBs are all going much later for a reason. Typically rookies are a decent bet because theyre undervalued due to no track record so you can draft them at a discount, but this year it appears Bell is the only rookie who'll be a lead back, and some guys like Bernard and Ball may not even be on the better end (more touches) of their RBBC. Also, I would think history shows any RB going in the 7th round or later, maybe even 6th round, almost always needs an injury to occur to the RB that is preventing them from getting more touches for you to get RB2 production out of them, so now youre counting on luck basically to find your RB2.

Count me out on employing this strategy, this year.

how is this year any different?

The way I see it is........which has a higher probability?

1) taking the "safer" elite QB/WR in rounds 1-2......where your QB-WR or WR-WR CAN'T bust AND you hit on your later RB picks.......OR

2) your 1st round RB busting, with the worst scenario a season ending injury

The answer is clearly #2. While it's not easy......you can recover from a 1st round RB bust......I have won titles with my 1st round RB busting before. But the chances of you winning a title taking the upside down strategy when NOT hitting your later RBs is slim to nil.

I have tried upside down strategy before......it didn't work for me. I prefer a balanced approach to drafting after taking my RB in Round 1. I take the best player available in Rounds 2-3 after I get my RB1 secured.

I have never not "hit" on my mid round or free agent running backs. Never. Look at the top 12ish this year. I see 3 maybe 4 guys that were f/a's or mid rounds in there. Spiller, Morris, Ridley, Martin, Richardson and maybe sproles. (he was going late 3rd last year)

yeah, OK, forgot pantherclub is perfect.

 

[fightingillini]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

It's simple for me. If a top 6 WR or Graham is available, I snag him in round 2 and take the best RB in Round 3.

If the elite WRs and Graham are all gone (which is very likely), I take the best RB left in Round 2 and take a WR in Round 3, like Roddy or AJ or V Jackson.

I would never go WR/WR unless I could get two in the top 6, which is never going to happen if I am drafting in the top 3.

 

[Instinctive]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

Then I can be flexible rest of draft in grabbing WR or RB depending on where value falls. I get my QB depending on how far Newton and Griffin fall, and if neither falls I'll overdraft Romo a bit typically (think he's WAY underrated this year for fantasy).

If you can get a top WR and a top RB, I think there's a lot of depth later. I'm comfortable with guys like Miles Austin, Mike Williams as my WR2. I'm comfortable with one of Jonathan Franklin, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Hillman breaking out to be a decent RB2 behind whichever earlier RB you take.

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

 

[Instinctive]

I've seen a lot of strategy in this thread about drafting at the end of round 1. But much less about drafting at the front of round 1.

What's your strategy at the 2/3 turn if you have a top-3 pick? Obviously, round 1 is RB. But at 2/3, do you go WR/RB in either order, or WR/WR? Would be nice to have a RB1 and also 2 WR1's...but leaving your RB2 to pick 46-48 is a scary proposition.

It's simple for me. If a top 6 WR or Graham is available, I snag him in round 2 and take the best RB in Round 3.

If the elite WRs and Graham are all gone (which is very likely), I take the best RB left in Round 2 and take a WR in Round 3, like Roddy or AJ or V Jackson.

I would never go WR/WR unless I could get two in the top 6, which is never going to happen if I am drafting in the top 3.

I have typically been able to get either Graham/Demaryius or Demaryius/RB at the 2/3 turn. Sometimes Julio Jones falls, if the league goes super RB crazy, and sometimes I'll take a guy like LeVeon Bell or David Wilson. The 2/3 turn is probably the spot I know the least about what I'll end up with going into a draft because the 1/2 turn picks can be so different from one draft to another.

 

[stbugs]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

Well. maybe it is revisionist theory, but I went by my PPR league with lots of FBGs and I took Thomas in the 3rd after Bryant was gone four picks earlier, two picks after Harvin at the beginning of the 3rd. VJ was early 4th (sorry, I thought he went in the 3rd), although someone not in their right mind selected Stevie Johnson before VJ in the 3rd, so VJ shouldn't have gotten out of the 3rd. I already said I knew Decker went later, but in start 3 WR PPR leagues, I don't think Thomas was going in the 5th round. If he was that was a heck of a value. Maybe I liked him enough (and I was right) to take him earlier.

That said, who cares about RB6 to RB16 vs WR6 to WR16? Stuff like that keeps coming up when the folks pimping WRs are talking about WR2-6 or so, who are available after RB6-7 are already taken. You are comparing apples to oranges. If I am talking about selecting AJ Green or Brees at the end of the 1st/early 2nd, I am comparing them to RB10, not someone already gone mid 1st.

 

[stbugs]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

The one point differences in points between the 6th Wr and the 16th cannot be in a ppr league with 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per td. Thomas, 6th best WR averaged 18.21 per game in that format. Cobb, 16th averaged 16.31 but missed his last game. If cobb scored his average that last game he would have been more like the 10th best WR. the 15t best WR , Crabtree, averaged 15.64. The 6th best RB in that format, Spiller, averaged 15.96, 16th best RB, Sjax averaged 12.52.

Thomas plus Sjax is 30.73, Spiller plus crabtree is 31.6.

The top ten WRs averaged 18.5 points per game, Top ten RBs averaged 17.2 points per game. WRs 11 to 20 averaged 15.1 points per game. RBs 11 to 20 averaged 13.7 points per game.

In average points per game the following is very interesting.

Top ten RBs plus 11 to 20 WRs is 32.3 points per game.

Top Ten WRs plus 11 to 20 RBs is 32.2 points per game.

Drafting from the late spots (say 10, 11, 12,) can you find two top ten WRs going WR/WR? In all the other rounds can you find two RBs that can pierce the top twenty? Can you find two top ten RBs? In all the other rounds can you find two WRs that can pierce the top 20?

I get revisionist theory for my post, yet if I look at points in my PPR league (same common scoring as yours), the difference between RB6 and RB16 was 56 points and WR6 and WR16 was 58. Seems like drafting Thomas in the 2nd round is a much better value than Spiller based on his PPG statement. I'd still take Spiller earlier, but again I think we were talking about people drafting near the turn.

 

[sithrich]

Last year's winning FPC online champion appears to have spent 3 of his first four picks on RBs.

Here is his winning lineup Roster:

QB-Griffin

RB-Rice, Lynch, Martin

WR-Bryant, Smith, Cobb

TE-Allen

K-Graham

Def-SD

Looks like he was lucky on the waiver by picking up Cobb. Bryant was a 3rd or 4th rounder last year.

First 4 picks were probably Rice, Lynch, Bryant, Martin...

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

Then I can be flexible rest of draft in grabbing WR or RB depending on where value falls. I get my QB depending on how far Newton and Griffin fall, and if neither falls I'll overdraft Romo a bit typically (think he's WAY underrated this year for fantasy).

If you can get a top WR and a top RB, I think there's a lot of depth later. I'm comfortable with guys like Miles Austin, Mike Williams as my WR2. I'm comfortable with one of Jonathan Franklin, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Hillman breaking out to be a decent RB2 behind whichever earlier RB you take.

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

Calvin/Graham were my 1/2 last year from the 8 spot in a 10-teamer. I was lucky to get Richardson in the 4th and Ryan in the 6th and Wayne in the 8th(?), as I was continually chasing my RB2 all year.

I think that if you do that, you have to hope and pray that Gore is still there in the 3rd and Wilson or Miller in the 4th. Might work. And then you probably have go hard after Bernard in the 6th and get the best available WR in the 5th, who will be dicey. And then just wait on QB. That's the way that I would see it.

 

[chickensoup]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

The one point differences in points between the 6th Wr and the 16th cannot be in a ppr league with 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per td. Thomas, 6th best WR averaged 18.21 per game in that format. Cobb, 16th averaged 16.31 but missed his last game. If cobb scored his average that last game he would have been more like the 10th best WR. the 15t best WR , Crabtree, averaged 15.64. The 6th best RB in that format, Spiller, averaged 15.96, 16th best RB, Sjax averaged 12.52. Thomas plus Sjax is 30.73, Spiller plus crabtree is 31.6.

The top ten WRs averaged 18.5 points per game, Top ten RBs averaged 17.2 points per game. WRs 11 to 20 averaged 15.1 points per game. RBs 11 to 20 averaged 13.7 points per game.

In average points per game the following is very interesting.

Top ten RBs plus 11 to 20 WRs is 32.3 points per game.

Top Ten WRs plus 11 to 20 RBs is 32.2 points per game.

Drafting from the late spots (say 10, 11, 12,) can you find two top ten WRs going WR/WR? In all the other rounds can you find two RBs that can pierce the top twenty? Can you find two top ten RBs? In all the other rounds can you find two WRs that can pierce the top 20?

You have 1 data point (your league) which doesn't use standard scoring. I used MFL which had about 8300 data points. When talking about draft strategy overall, if you're thinking anything but standard scoring (ie PPR, 6pt passing TD etc) you need to make it clear that its what you are talking about. When saying things like "was drafted in the third round" and you're not talking about ADP data from some at least semi reputable sure, you should probably mention that as well.

Talking about your specific draft from last year that uses non standard scoring or lineup size while making an argument about overall draft strategy is kind of......disingenuous and frankly largely unhelpful unless you actually state that its what you're talking about.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

The one point differences in points between the 6th Wr and the 16th cannot be in a ppr league with 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per td. Thomas, 6th best WR averaged 18.21 per game in that format. Cobb, 16th averaged 16.31 but missed his last game. If cobb scored his average that last game he would have been more like the 10th best WR. the 15t best WR , Crabtree, averaged 15.64. The 6th best RB in that format, Spiller, averaged 15.96, 16th best RB, Sjax averaged 12.52. Thomas plus Sjax is 30.73, Spiller plus crabtree is 31.6.

The top ten WRs averaged 18.5 points per game, Top ten RBs averaged 17.2 points per game. WRs 11 to 20 averaged 15.1 points per game. RBs 11 to 20 averaged 13.7 points per game.

In average points per game the following is very interesting.

Top ten RBs plus 11 to 20 WRs is 32.3 points per game.

Top Ten WRs plus 11 to 20 RBs is 32.2 points per game.

Drafting from the late spots (say 10, 11, 12,) can you find two top ten WRs going WR/WR? In all the other rounds can you find two RBs that can pierce the top twenty? Can you find two top ten RBs? In all the other rounds can you find two WRs that can pierce the top 20?

You have 1 data point (your league) which doesn't use standard scoring. I used MFL which had about 8300 data points. When talking about draft strategy overall, if you're thinking anything but standard scoring (ie PPR, 6pt passing TD etc) you need to make it clear that its what you are talking about. When saying things like "was drafted in the third round" and you're not talking about ADP data from some at least semi reputable sure, you should probably mention that as well.

Talking about your specific draft from last year that uses non standard scoring or lineup size while making an argument about overall draft strategy is kind of......disingenuous and frankly largely unhelpful unless you actually state that its what you're talking about.

If you are stating that people should state things they are stating about, maybe you should state about that.

 

[cdubz]

Last year's winning FPC online champion appears to have spent 3 of his first four picks on RBs.

Here is his winning lineup Roster:

QB-Griffin

RB-Rice, Lynch, Martin

WR-Bryant, Smith, Cobb

TE-Allen

K-Graham

Def-SD

Looks like he was lucky on the waiver by picking up Cobb. Bryant was a 3rd or 4th rounder last year.

First 4 picks were probably Rice, Lynch, Bryant, Martin...

Cobb was his 13th round pick according to my excel file FWIW.

This reminds me that I wanted to go back and look at some more draft strategies for the top teams, so thanks for that.

ETA: lets do the first 10 rounds of that roster: Rice/Lynch/Martin/Bryant/Steve Smith/Matt Ryan/Fred Davis/Malcolm Floyd/Jared Cook/RGIII

Cobb was the only real hit in the backhalf of the draft as well.

 

[chickensoup]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

The one point differences in points between the 6th Wr and the 16th cannot be in a ppr league with 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per td. Thomas, 6th best WR averaged 18.21 per game in that format. Cobb, 16th averaged 16.31 but missed his last game. If cobb scored his average that last game he would have been more like the 10th best WR. the 15t best WR , Crabtree, averaged 15.64. The 6th best RB in that format, Spiller, averaged 15.96, 16th best RB, Sjax averaged 12.52. Thomas plus Sjax is 30.73, Spiller plus crabtree is 31.6.

The top ten WRs averaged 18.5 points per game, Top ten RBs averaged 17.2 points per game. WRs 11 to 20 averaged 15.1 points per game. RBs 11 to 20 averaged 13.7 points per game.

In average points per game the following is very interesting.

Top ten RBs plus 11 to 20 WRs is 32.3 points per game.

Top Ten WRs plus 11 to 20 RBs is 32.2 points per game.

Drafting from the late spots (say 10, 11, 12,) can you find two top ten WRs going WR/WR? In all the other rounds can you find two RBs that can pierce the top twenty? Can you find two top ten RBs? In all the other rounds can you find two WRs that can pierce the top 20?

You have 1 data point (your league) which doesn't use standard scoring. I used MFL which had about 8300 data points. When talking about draft strategy overall, if you're thinking anything but standard scoring (ie PPR, 6pt passing TD etc) you need to make it clear that its what you are talking about. When saying things like "was drafted in the third round" and you're not talking about ADP data from some at least semi reputable sure, you should probably mention that as well.Talking about your specific draft from last year that uses non standard scoring or lineup size while making an argument about overall draft strategy is kind of......disingenuous and frankly largely unhelpful unless you actually state that its what you're talking about.

If you are stating that people should state things they are stating about, maybe you should state about that.

Huh?

Sorry for missing that it was someone different between quotes though, the quote boxes get super long on my phone (down to 1 letter per line even) Sorry for the confusion.

 

[chickensoup]

7 top ten WRs have dropped out each of the past two seasons, including those drafted highly. What's the difference?

I posted on this a couple pages ago and it isn't as bad as it looks. First of all, guys like Welker and Cruz were top 10 in 2011 and a mere handful of points away from top 10 in 2012. Second of all, there are a group of young WRs that were rookies in 2011/2010 and are now studs , i.e. Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant. Heck, Eric Decker was a rookie in 2010 as well. Having Peyton as your QB helps. Andre Johnson was also top 10 for 2008, 2009 and 2010 before missing the top 10 in 2011 due to injuries, hence a full healthy season and he's back in the top 10. Percy Harvin was top 5 in 2012 before he got hurt. Jordy Nelson dropped off, but pro-rated for missing 4 games, he was still going to be top 20.Mike Wallace and Larry Fitzgerald dropped out badly. Wallace finished 24th and Fitz was even worse particularly due to horrid QB play. Also note, that Green, Jones, Marshall and Bryant all were top 20 WRs that moved into the top 10.

If you look at 2011 to 2012 top 10 RBs in FBGs rankings, it looks a lot worse. Turner, M. Bush, Sproles, Matthews, McCoy, and MJD went from top 10 to Mike Wallace/Fitz level rankings. Its only 2 years later now and only McCoy is ranked in the top 10.

That said, I look at the 2012 top 10 WRs and RBs and I see a lot more guys in both lists that I think have a much higher chance to stay top 10 in 2013.

You cant just look at year to year finish. None of Turner, Bush, Sproles, Mathews were being drafted as Top 10 RBs last year for various reasons. So, while they may have finished that high in 2011, people werent getting burned by using a 1st or 2nd round pick last year.

Also all the guys being drafted in the Top 10 RBs this year either have a history of finishing in the Top 10 RBs multiple times, or were high pedigree rookies last year and did so. Spiller is the only exception, and I think we can agree that has more to do with situation his first couple years than talent. I, like you, think these Top 10 RBs this year are more likely than your typical year to remain RB1's or barely miss.

While we both agree that this years top 10 ranked RBs (and WRs) look much better than last year, you can't just disregard those RBs in 2011. That is one of the key points of a lot of folks talking about WRs/QBs early instead of guys like CJ, SJ, Forte, MJD, Murray, etc. None of those guys listed above were being drafted top 10 in 2011, yet they finished there. Same thing last year, Martin, Morris, Spiller and Ridley were not drafted anywhere near the top 10, but finished in the top 10. Heck, even Charles and ADP were most likely 2nd round picks. Look at the top 10 2012 WRs: Calvin, Marshall, Bryant, Green, AJohnson, Julio, Roddy, VJ, Thomas and Decker. Decker was probably the only one not consistently drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. I would bet that the other 9 were ranked in the top 10/top 15 of everyone's list. That is kind of why I see Julio, Bryant and Thomas as pretty solid top 10 locks, there are occasional WRs coming out of nowhere, but most of the top 10 WRs seem to be already top 10 or second tier top 20 guys ready to jump into the top 10. It just seems like there are double the amount of out of nowhere RBs every year.

Pure revisionist history. Thomas was a late 4th early 5th round pick last year. Bryant was mid 4th. VJ late 5th. Decker mid 5th. All per MFL. Different sites are going to show different absolute numbers but you're crazy if you think all 10 guys were gone by the end if the third. Last years top 10:Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Julio Jones

Andre Johnson

Wes Welker

AJ Green

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

I agree that normally the turnover for top 10 WR is less than RB. But don't bring a false argument to the table because there was significant turnover this past year at WR. And you still could have had Marshall alongside 2RB or a RB/QB from almost any position in the draft.

Would it surprise you to find out that the number 6 WR last year scored only a little over 1 point more per week than the number 16? The same gap in RB was almost 4 points. I put it outside the top 5 because any sane person takes a top 5 back in my mind.

People like theorizing about getting guys who are "locks to be top 10" and don't look at the actual point differential. Besides freaks like Calvin Johnson or Jimmy Graham or a truly elite QB, there's just not a gigantic difference in average points per week most of the time outside if RB.

Think about why that is. Some teams split carries. Some teams have bad running schemes. Some teams use goal line backs. Some teams just have bad RB. What does nearly every team have though? A favorite pass target. Chad Henne turned not 1 but 2 WR into fantasy relevant players. It didn't matter how horrible Fitzpatrick was, Stevie Johnson STILL was WR 20.

My point is that of course WR are consistant within the top of the ranks, because they are consistant throughout. the top guys for every team will get the ball thrown their way a lot. But a significant portion of the league uses RB in non traditional ways, be it RBBC, goal line backs, or just team indicision on who to play. WR doesn't have that.

If you feel confident that you can pick the one or two guys that end up being value picks at RB after the second round then by all means, do it. But don't do it because "I locked up two top 10 receivers." Including Megatron, it goes all the way to Crabtree til you have a 4 point per game difference. Take him out and it's Mike Williams. There's just so much room for error on WR I can't see getting in the first 2 rounds

The one point differences in points between the 6th Wr and the 16th cannot be in a ppr league with 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per td. Thomas, 6th best WR averaged 18.21 per game in that format. Cobb, 16th averaged 16.31 but missed his last game. If cobb scored his average that last game he would have been more like the 10th best WR. the 15t best WR , Crabtree, averaged 15.64. The 6th best RB in that format, Spiller, averaged 15.96, 16th best RB, Sjax averaged 12.52. Thomas plus Sjax is 30.73, Spiller plus crabtree is 31.6.

The top ten WRs averaged 18.5 points per game, Top ten RBs averaged 17.2 points per game. WRs 11 to 20 averaged 15.1 points per game. RBs 11 to 20 averaged 13.7 points per game.

In average points per game the following is very interesting.

Top ten RBs plus 11 to 20 WRs is 32.3 points per game.

Top Ten WRs plus 11 to 20 RBs is 32.2 points per game.

Drafting from the late spots (say 10, 11, 12,) can you find two top ten WRs going WR/WR? In all the other rounds can you find two RBs that can pierce the top twenty? Can you find two top ten RBs? In all the other rounds can you find two WRs that can pierce the top 20?

You have 1 data point (your league) which doesn't use standard scoring. I used MFL which had about 8300 data points. When talking about draft strategy overall, if you're thinking anything but standard scoring (ie PPR, 6pt passing TD etc) you need to make it clear that its what you are talking about. When saying things like "was drafted in the third round" and you're not talking about ADP data from some at least semi reputable sure, you should probably mention that as well.Talking about your specific draft from last year that uses non standard scoring or lineup size while making an argument about overall draft strategy is kind of......disingenuous and frankly largely unhelpful unless you actually state that its what you're talking about.

If you are stating that people should state things they are stating about, maybe you should state about that.

Huh?

Sorry for missing that it was someone different between quotes though, the quote boxes get super long on my phone (down to 1 letter per line even) Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Instinctive]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

Then I can be flexible rest of draft in grabbing WR or RB depending on where value falls. I get my QB depending on how far Newton and Griffin fall, and if neither falls I'll overdraft Romo a bit typically (think he's WAY underrated this year for fantasy).

If you can get a top WR and a top RB, I think there's a lot of depth later. I'm comfortable with guys like Miles Austin, Mike Williams as my WR2. I'm comfortable with one of Jonathan Franklin, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Hillman breaking out to be a decent RB2 behind whichever earlier RB you take.

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

Calvin/Graham were my 1/2 last year from the 8 spot in a 10-teamer. I was lucky to get Richardson in the 4th and Ryan in the 6th and Wayne in the 8th(?), as I was continually chasing my RB2 all year.

I think that if you do that, you have to hope and pray that Gore is still there in the 3rd and Wilson or Miller in the 4th. Might work. And then you probably have go hard after Bernard in the 6th and get the best available WR in the 5th, who will be dicey. And then just wait on QB. That's the way that I would see it.

I'm not taking a WR in the 5th. I probably won't take one til the 8th. I like a team that ends up like this from the back, at or very near the turn:

1. Calvin

2. Graham

3. Wilson/Bell/Demaryius (very rarely, almost never there) or Andre Johnson

4. Mathews/Bell/Wilson

At this point I pretty much abandon ADP to take purely RBs I like for a while. I want to come out of this section with a QB, 2 RBs, and a RB or Mike Williams. Or both Newton and RG3. That almost never happens but I know how to roll with it if it does.

5. Newton(if he falls)/Bernard/Franklin

6. Franklin/Bernard/Mike Williams/DeAngelo

7. RG3(if he falls)/Franklin/Hillman/Miles Austin/Britt/DeAngelo

8. Hillman/Miles Austin/Josh Gordon/Britt/Romo if I didn't get a QB

After that I'm taking mostly upside RBs, I try to get EJ Manuel depending on QB situation. I always grab Rod Streater, I like to grab Alshon Jeffery, Bernard Pierce if I can, Bryce Brown is nice to have, Blackmon and Randle are nice...it's a lot of high upside darts.

But I'm totally satisfied rolling out a team like this:

Newton/RG3 (5)

Mathews (4)

Franklin/Hillman/

Calvin (1)

Demaryius/Colston/Andre (3)

Graham (2)

And then my flex play comes from one of the many upside runners and receivers. I like this team a lot. Alternatively, put Romo at QB and have David WIlson and Mathews at RB with a 5th round receiver instead of a 3rd rounder...and I like that too.

All of this is viable of FBG ADP, and the guys I want to fall are way more viable if you use ESPN/Yahoo type ADPs. I play in some local leagues, so that can be more accurate at times.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think the biggest thing that Ive noticed/learned so far from this thread, is that youre really rolling the dice if you dont take a RB with either of your first 2 picks. Regardless of scoring system, regardless of league size.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

Then I can be flexible rest of draft in grabbing WR or RB depending on where value falls. I get my QB depending on how far Newton and Griffin fall, and if neither falls I'll overdraft Romo a bit typically (think he's WAY underrated this year for fantasy).

If you can get a top WR and a top RB, I think there's a lot of depth later. I'm comfortable with guys like Miles Austin, Mike Williams as my WR2. I'm comfortable with one of Jonathan Franklin, DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Hillman breaking out to be a decent RB2 behind whichever earlier RB you take.

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

Calvin/Graham were my 1/2 last year from the 8 spot in a 10-teamer. I was lucky to get Richardson in the 4th and Ryan in the 6th and Wayne in the 8th(?), as I was continually chasing my RB2 all year.

I think that if you do that, you have to hope and pray that Gore is still there in the 3rd and Wilson or Miller in the 4th. Might work. And then you probably have go hard after Bernard in the 6th and get the best available WR in the 5th, who will be dicey. And then just wait on QB. That's the way that I would see it.

I'm not taking a WR in the 5th. I probably won't take one til the 8th. I like a team that ends up like this from the back, at or very near the turn:

1. Calvin

2. Graham

3. Wilson/Bell/Demaryius (very rarely, almost never there) or Andre Johnson

4. Mathews/Bell/Wilson

At this point I pretty much abandon ADP to take purely RBs I like for a while. I want to come out of this section with a QB, 2 RBs, and a RB or Mike Williams. Or both Newton and RG3. That almost never happens but I know how to roll with it if it does.

5. Newton(if he falls)/Bernard/Franklin

6. Franklin/Bernard/Mike Williams/DeAngelo

7. RG3(if he falls)/Franklin/Hillman/Miles Austin/Britt/DeAngelo

8. Hillman/Miles Austin/Josh Gordon/Britt/Romo if I didn't get a QB

After that I'm taking mostly upside RBs, I try to get EJ Manuel depending on QB situation. I always grab Rod Streater, I like to grab Alshon Jeffery, Bernard Pierce if I can, Bryce Brown is nice to have, Blackmon and Randle are nice...it's a lot of high upside darts.

But I'm totally satisfied rolling out a team like this:

Newton/RG3 (5)

Mathews (4)

Franklin/Hillman/

Calvin (1)

Demaryius/Colston/Andre (3)

Graham (2)

Id feel pretty awful about my chances at a championship with this team. QB is almost irrelevant because everyone is going to have a solid one this year it seems. You arent getting DT late 3rd round, period. Those RBs are putrid, you probably dont even have a RB2 on this team, and there's a decent chance 2 of those 3 RBs arent even RB3s. Having Colston or Andre as a WR2 is nice, but theyre both low end WR1s/high end WR2s to begin with.

 

[Leonidas]

I'm not taking a WR in the 5th. I probably won't take one til the 8th. I like a team that ends up like this from the back, at or very near the turn:


1. Calvin

2. Graham

3. Wilson/Bell/Demaryius (very rarely, almost never there) or Andre Johnson

4. Mathews/Bell/Wilson

At this point I pretty much abandon ADP to take purely RBs I like for a while. I want to come out of this section with a QB, 2 RBs, and a RB or Mike Williams. Or both Newton and RG3. That almost never happens but I know how to roll with it if it does.

5. Newton(if he falls)/Bernard/Franklin

6. Franklin/Bernard/Mike Williams/DeAngelo

7. RG3(if he falls)/Franklin/Hillman/Miles Austin/Britt/DeAngelo

8. Hillman/Miles Austin/Josh Gordon/Britt/Romo if I didn't get a QB

After that I'm taking mostly upside RBs, I try to get EJ Manuel depending on QB situation. I always grab Rod Streater, I like to grab Alshon Jeffery, Bernard Pierce if I can, Bryce Brown is nice to have, Blackmon and Randle are nice...it's a lot of high upside darts.

But I'm totally satisfied rolling out a team like this:

Newton/RG3 (5)

Mathews (4)

Franklin/Hillman/

Calvin (1)

Demaryius/Colston/Andre (3)

Graham (2)

Id feel pretty awful about my chances at a championship with this team. QB is almost irrelevant because everyone is going to have a solid one this year it seems. You arent getting DT late 3rd round, period. Those RBs are putrid, you probably dont even have a RB2 on this team, and there's a decent chance 2 of those 3 RBs arent even RB3s. Having Colston or Andre as a WR2 is nice, but theyre both low end WR1s/high end WR2s to begin with.

Sounds about right ^

 

[pantherclub]

I think the biggest thing that Ive noticed/learned so far from this thread, is that youre really rolling the dice if you dont take a RB with either of your first 2 picks. Regardless of scoring system, regardless of league size.

once again you refuse to acknowledge that the bust rate for the top 15 rb's is well over 60%.

 

[Instinctive]

I'm not taking a WR in the 5th. I probably won't take one til the 8th. I like a team that ends up like this from the back, at or very near the turn:


1. Calvin

2. Graham

3. Wilson/Bell/Demaryius (very rarely, almost never there) or Andre Johnson

4. Mathews/Bell/Wilson

At this point I pretty much abandon ADP to take purely RBs I like for a while. I want to come out of this section with a QB, 2 RBs, and a RB or Mike Williams. Or both Newton and RG3. That almost never happens but I know how to roll with it if it does.

5. Newton(if he falls)/Bernard/Franklin

6. Franklin/Bernard/Mike Williams/DeAngelo

7. RG3(if he falls)/Franklin/Hillman/Miles Austin/Britt/DeAngelo

8. Hillman/Miles Austin/Josh Gordon/Britt/Romo if I didn't get a QB

After that I'm taking mostly upside RBs, I try to get EJ Manuel depending on QB situation. I always grab Rod Streater, I like to grab Alshon Jeffery, Bernard Pierce if I can, Bryce Brown is nice to have, Blackmon and Randle are nice...it's a lot of high upside darts.

But I'm totally satisfied rolling out a team like this:

Newton/RG3 (5)

Mathews (4)

Franklin/Hillman/

Calvin (1)

Demaryius/Colston/Andre (3)

Graham (2)

Id feel pretty awful about my chances at a championship with this team. QB is almost irrelevant because everyone is going to have a solid one this year it seems. You arent getting DT late 3rd round, period. Those RBs are putrid, you probably dont even have a RB2 on this team, and there's a decent chance 2 of those 3 RBs arent even RB3s. Having Colston or Andre as a WR2 is nice, but theyre both low end WR1s/high end WR2s to begin with.

Sounds about right ^

Eh. We'll agree to disagree. Mathews is incredibly underrated, Wilson has huge upside, Bell could be 15+ touches per game. You're wrong about QB, that's the conventional wisdom but the top QBs (top 3 or so) are still putting up massive VBD numbers over the other QB1s.

The difference between you and I, I think, is that I'd rather build a team that will win it all or suck. I don't want 4th place. I don't want safe, I want to win. I trust that I can play the WW better than anyone in my leagues, and I trust that every year, RBs appear as massive value from late. Somebody from Green Bay will put up numbers, somebody from Denver will too (I'm betting on Hillman and Moreno as a combo that's cheap).

If all of my backs flame out, and I still have a team that starts out with Calvin/Graham/other top 10 WR, I'm going to be a bottom rung playoff team with solid roster management. On top of that, backs always pop up at the end of the year to carry you to success. I trust that I can be the guy to grab those players.

It's a lot of faith in myself, but rather than be above average everywhere, I think I can build a team with one glaring hole that is elite other places. With in season roster management, I think it's easier for me to win that way. Everyone does it differently.

ETA: Not to mention that as great as you think the 1st and 2nd round RBs are, more of them will bust than won't. Injuries, poor OLines, schedules that turn out to be way tougher than you think...RBs pop up all the time, even as 2-3 week plays. I can patch all that together to float my team at RB2.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

The more I think about it and read this thread, Im starting to think Graham is overrated. He was TE1 last year, but from 2011 his catches dropped by 14, yardage by 325, and TDs by 2. Now I think its reasonable for his numbers to go back up towards middle ground of his last 2 years, like 92/1170/10, but 2011 was a historic season for a TE (both him and Gronk) for a reason, because thats real tough to do. He offers no real advantage over Witten or Gonzalez in PPR, yet is going 3+ rounds ahead of them.

I realize TE is a position that looked deep 2 years ago and now looks questionable if you wait, but Graham,Gonzo, and Witten basically had identical seasons point wise last year in PPR, and not much of a difference in non-PPR. I actually think Witten and Gonzo are the value plays, but Im perfectly fine waiting for a TE and maybe grabbing combo like Daniels/Davis and I typically only roster 1 TE.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I wish I had bigger FF balls. Today in one of my MFL redraft leagues, I could have taken Gronk at 4.5, which even if he misses some games, I think its a steal. But because I took Graham at 2.5, felt there was no way I could not take a WR until round 5. Would anyone else have grabbed Gronk and passed on a WR after the first 4 rounds?

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I think the biggest thing that Ive noticed/learned so far from this thread, is that youre really rolling the dice if you dont take a RB with either of your first 2 picks. Regardless of scoring system, regardless of league size.

Rolling the dice? Sure it is. But if you are at the back end of the draft, aren't you by nature starting off behind those who are sitting in the top 5-7* spots, especially if you don't draft Banzai? If you stick to the VBD formula, you still are needing a lottery ticket to hit. If everyone in the league goes VBD, then the margin by which the top 5 RBs separate themselves from the rest of the pack is a margin you simply can't overcome without a pick or three overplaying their draft position. So if you know that going in, why not set yourself up for that?

If a RB in the fourth round plays over his head and finishes like a RB1, then you have a WR1 better than everyone but Calvin, a WR2 vastly better than the WR1 of most teams, significantly better than the WR2 of every other team, and astronomically better than the WR2 of the teams waiting until round 5 to get their 2nd WR. That margin... that is where your team will have the advantage.

Without guys overplaying their ADP, you can't make up the difference between their RB1 and yours. But with a guy or two overperforming, you have drafted a team with a distinct roster advantage at WR1 and WR2, and one guy playing beyond himself can be the way you make up the shortcoming of not having one of the top 4-5 RBs.

Is it a gamble? Yes. Is it as big a gamble as just going along with the herd? I don't think so.

* The exact number of people varies according to how many guppies in your league use the 4th overall pick on Drew Brees. But you get the idea.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think the biggest thing that Ive noticed/learned so far from this thread, is that youre really rolling the dice if you dont take a RB with either of your first 2 picks. Regardless of scoring system, regardless of league size.

once again you refuse to acknowledge that the bust rate for the top 15 rb's is well over 60%.

Once again, you appear very close-minded. I typically draft the guys that dont bust that early. No one can predict a blownout knee like AD, Jamaal, etc. Well, you never miss, so maybe you do. You might have stud WRs if you go WR/WR this year, but far more often that not your gonna struggle finding your RB that produces near RB1 level, maybe even RB2. Id love it if you posted your roster(s) to begin the season in this thread after going WR/WR and we can see how they turn out.

Call it gut feeling, common sense, or supreme knowledge of the game, but I bet you dont even sniff a championship. Maybe not even playoffs.

 

[Instinctive]

Maaaaaaybe I've missed it in the last page or so, but I feel like Graham is being overlooked. If I'm at the back, I typically like my teams most when I end up with

Calvin/RB

Graham

WR or RB (opposite of round 1)

RB

That's why I like getting Graham early with a top WR or RB - you're locking in a positional advantage of quite a few points per week. If you're playing the WW to improve at one position...I think a RB or WR has proven to be a lot more likely to break out each year than a TE is.

The more I think about it and read this thread, Im starting to think Graham is overrated. He was TE1 last year, but from 2011 his catches dropped by 14, yardage by 325, and TDs by 2. Now I think its reasonable for his numbers to go back up towards middle ground of his last 2 years, like 92/1170/10, but 2011 was a historic season for a TE (both him and Gronk) for a reason, because thats real tough to do. He offers no real advantage over Witten or Gonzalez in PPR, yet is going 3+ rounds ahead of them.

I realize TE is a position that looked deep 2 years ago and now looks questionable if you wait, but Graham,Gonzo, and Witten basically had identical seasons point wise last year in PPR, and not much of a difference in non-PPR. I actually think Witten and Gonzo are the value plays, but Im perfectly fine waiting for a TE and maybe grabbing combo like Daniels/Davis and I typically only roster 1 TE.

This makes me think you don't get the math behind Graham's production:

Last year he was about 3 PPG better than Witten (this year's consensus "next guy"). He was about 2 PPG better than Tony G, who I personally don't see repeating his production at all.

Last year, as you so eloquently put, was far below his capabilities. He was hurt, he played hurt in many games, and he was still the #1 TE. He could be worth as much as 5-8 ppg over the #2 TE (and a helluva lot more over each TE worse...) all year long. The advantage is massive.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I'm not taking a WR in the 5th. I probably won't take one til the 8th. I like a team that ends up like this from the back, at or very near the turn:


1. Calvin

2. Graham

3. Wilson/Bell/Demaryius (very rarely, almost never there) or Andre Johnson

4. Mathews/Bell/Wilson

At this point I pretty much abandon ADP to take purely RBs I like for a while. I want to come out of this section with a QB, 2 RBs, and a RB or Mike Williams. Or both Newton and RG3. That almost never happens but I know how to roll with it if it does.

5. Newton(if he falls)/Bernard/Franklin

6. Franklin/Bernard/Mike Williams/DeAngelo

7. RG3(if he falls)/Franklin/Hillman/Miles Austin/Britt/DeAngelo

8. Hillman/Miles Austin/Josh Gordon/Britt/Romo if I didn't get a QB

After that I'm taking mostly upside RBs, I try to get EJ Manuel depending on QB situation. I always grab Rod Streater, I like to grab Alshon Jeffery, Bernard Pierce if I can, Bryce Brown is nice to have, Blackmon and Randle are nice...it's a lot of high upside darts.

But I'm totally satisfied rolling out a team like this:

Newton/RG3 (5)

Mathews (4)

Franklin/Hillman/

Calvin (1)

Demaryius/Colston/Andre (3)

Graham (2)

Id feel pretty awful about my chances at a championship with this team. QB is almost irrelevant because everyone is going to have a solid one this year it seems. You arent getting DT late 3rd round, period. Those RBs are putrid, you probably dont even have a RB2 on this team, and there's a decent chance 2 of those 3 RBs arent even RB3s. Having Colston or Andre as a WR2 is nice, but theyre both low end WR1s/high end WR2s to begin with.

Sounds about right ^

Eh. We'll agree to disagree. Mathews is incredibly underrated, Wilson has huge upside, Bell could be 15+ touches per game. You're wrong about QB, that's the conventional wisdom but the top QBs (top 3 or so) are still putting up massive VBD numbers over the other QB1s.

If all of my backs flame out, and I still have a team that starts out with Calvin/Graham/other top 10 WR, I'm going to be a bottom rung playoff team with solid roster management. On top of that, backs always pop up at the end of the year to carry you to success. I trust that I can be the guy to grab those players.

It's a lot of faith in myself, but rather than be above average everywhere, I think I can build a team with one glaring hole that is elite other places. With in season roster management, I think it's easier for me to win that way. Everyone does it differently.

ETA: Not to mention that as great as you think the 1st and 2nd round RBs are, more of them will bust than won't. Injuries, poor OLines, schedules that turn out to be way tougher than you think...RBs pop up all the time, even as 2-3 week plays. I can patch all that together to float my team at RB2.

First off, you are calling this a good draft based on picking late or at the turn in the 1st. So..

1) Good luck getting Calvin at that point in the first. Your stance almost hinges on getting his ridiculous advantage as your WR1, but his ADP is 5th overall.

2) Yes, Wilson has a lot of upside, you also arent getting him late 3rd like even you admit.

3) Mathews isnt underrated, he's fools gold, just like the RBs like DMC, MJD going in the 3rd.

4) You are wrong based on QB VBD. Based on last years stats - which certainly will change - Rodgers and Brees are in their own tier (I expect Brady to move down a bit). Last years numbers, Brees/Rodgers had a 40 pt advantage over Cam at QB4. Cam had that same point advantage over QB10/11 (in between the two). So no, getting a Cam, Ryan, RG3 is not a big advantage over the latter QB1's

5) Ive recently posted my thoughts on Graham being a little overrated this year.

Last, and maybe most importantly based on your strategy, you mention multiple times how RBs pop up all the time. Newsflash, WRs pop up unexpectedly too. You even mention how when WW RBs pop up, typically theyre short term fixes. When WRs do, they usually help you out most of the season. It works both ways.

 

[pantherclub]

I think the biggest thing that Ive noticed/learned so far from this thread, is that youre really rolling the dice if you dont take a RB with either of your first 2 picks. Regardless of scoring system, regardless of league size.

once again you refuse to acknowledge that the bust rate for the top 15 rb's is well over 60%.

Once again, you appear very close-minded. I typically draft the guys that dont bust that early. No one can predict a blownout knee like AD, Jamaal, etc. Well, you never miss, so maybe you do. You might have stud WRs if you go WR/WR this year, but far more often that not your gonna struggle finding your RB that produces near RB1 level, maybe even RB2. Id love it if you posted your roster(s) to begin the season in this thread after going WR/WR and we can see how they turn out.

Call it gut feeling, common sense, or supreme knowledge of the game, but I bet you dont even sniff a championship. Maybe not even playoffs.