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RBs to Exploit and Avoid Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Greetings Shark Pool,

I want to welcome anyone who is new and enjoying the boards for the first time this year. This thread was started many moons ago and has progressed a little bit with each passing season. The reason for it is to talk about the upcoming games for the week a little more in depth and to get the temperature of the Shark Pool as to where they see guys placing each week. I tend to stay away from hard projections and focus more on the opportunities for the backs in each game. What really drives this thread is the feedback and ideas from all the subscribers and board members. If you are a newbie, you'll get the hang of things pretty quick but here are some suggestions on what folks like to read in here.

Example 1: You have drafted Rashard Mendenhall, Jahvid Best, and Arian Foster as your top3 RBs but you can only start 2 for the week. Instead of asking the board to pick your players, post more about what you see as upside and potential for each back and concerns you might have for downside. You are going to find many other posters have similar concerns and there is nothing wrong with debating actual scenarios if they are presented in a way that everyone can enjoy and not just related to one owner's team. There is a great thread by Jeff Tefertiller in the Assistant Coaches forum where he will answer you back with specifics if you need help. My PM works as well but I try and encourage owners to make their own decisions.

Another good example of posts we all like to see would be trends with stats.

Example 2: "Hold the phone MOP you must have overlooked the last 3 outings that Ronnie Brown had against the Patriots." And then you post the stats and situations that lead to what happened. We like those posts and they give everyone a lot of food for thought.

Week 1 Expectations: Honestly, it's the first week and for many you should probably stick with your early picks. But that said you guys are sharks and you typically draft deep so I doubt everyone only has 2 choices at RB week 1. This is probably not the week to get too cute in your rosters until you get a better read on the coaches and weekly game plans of most teams.

This week I probably wrote more than I will write any other week during the season. Many weeks it will be very simple when talking about players and I will just point and assume you are going to play most guys drafted in the 1st 2-3 rounds of your redrafts. I do slant the thread more towards redraft. Dynasty leagues the rosters are set year to year with a little influx from the rookie pool.

Also I wanted to say that this thread is not about MOP being right or wrong. It's not a place to rub it in peoples' faces when you make a brilliant call or when someone steps out on a limb and makes a bad call. There actually is a weekly thread devoted to that very thing. This thread is about trying to gather the most info, picking the brains of others in here as well as to entertain and have a little fun along the way. I'm not being bossy or preachy, just be excellent to each other as is stated in the rules. There will be times when we all get involved in some heated debate, just keep the shots above the belt.

The color codes are never usually explained but I'll do my best. Red means avoid, Green means almost a must start, and Blue is usually for injury or for you to pay attention to the IR. I could put Chris Johnson and ADP in green for example but it doesn't matter because you are going to start them anyways. I try to highlight players in green when I think they could be overlooked. When you see Dodds weekly player rankings he will step out on a limb and usually put a guy in the top10 that he really wants you to take notice. Same thought process on why I use the colors as I do. If a player is simply bolded feel free to ask for more info if you deem it necessary.

The games are set up with the point spreads. I used to do an Oddsmaker thread a few years ago but this thread here gets very time consuming. I have tried and can never follow thru on a QB or WR thread because it's simply too much. The final score I post is just food for thought. Sometimes I think the spreads are really off and you will know when I do the write up how I feel. I'm just a beach bum in Miami and cannot predict the outcome of football games or I would be in Vegas raking it in. The spreads though sometimes can be a tip off to how a game might actually turn out and many times Vegas is very close on the total points of football games so I use them for that purpose.

Are you ready to start analyzing the week 1 games? Let's GO!!!

Minnesota at New Orleans (-4.5) (48.5)

This is a rematch of the NFC Championship from a year ago where Brett Favre came ever so close to being one of the oldest QBs ever to lead a team to the Super Bowl. If this were 2009 I would see this as being a very close game but in 2010 and with a lot of the flux right now in Minnesota I think this game will be handled quite well by New Orleans who should be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover…instead they likely will feast on the Vikings plus the game is at home.

Adrian Peterson: I can say this in week 1, week5, week 10, I can't think of too many scenarios where he won't be in your line up. The added benefit now that Minnesota is struggling with their receiving corp only makes him a better option with possibly more receptions. New Orleans defense has added some new faces and they will have their work cut out stopping the ground game however I don't believe the passing game will be doing ADP a lot of favors early on in the season.

Here in lies the rub for the Saints and owners of these 2 backs. Who is going to be the one to start? Against Minnesota and a fairly strong front seven I would say that Reggie Bush has the edge because of his receiving skills. He seems better equipped to exploit the Vikings' defense as they can shut down the run and to me that limits Pierre Thomas a little more.

Reggie Bush: I probably roll with him. He was a 5th-6th round pick in most redrafts. While I am sure most owners who grabbed him likely took a RB in the 7th, 8th, and or 9th to compliment Bush, he appears very focused and I wouldn't hesitate to start him in PPR leagues. If you grabbed him for your flex option I think you found the right guy as long as he can stay healthy. I can see him racking up 75+ yards combined and at least a few receptions to pull him into double digit range.

Pierre Thomas: So now we see if those that grabbed him in the 3rd round early 4th paid too much or not. You cannot like this match up in the 1st week as it doesn't really play to Thomas' strengths. He did do a number on the Vikes in the playoffs last year. Pierre can catch balls too but Reggie Bush has a lot more plays designed for him to get the ball out of the backfield (OTB). You hate to sit a guy in week 1 that you might have picked as your RB1 but if you have juicier match ups I might look there. Can Pierre have a good game this week? Of course but what are the percentages? As I have looked at this game a little more though I can see Thomas being asked to drop the hammer and close the game out on the ground.

Final Score: New Orleans 31…Minnesota 17



Miami at Buffalo (+3) (38.5)

Miami will travel to Buffalo and embark on the beginning of a murderous 1st half schedule that will see them turn around and travel to MN, then it's home for the Jets, Pats, road games @GB, @Cin, @BAL, with a home game of Pitt with Big Ben back and starting sandwiched in between. To say it is crucial for them to start out with a win is an understatement. On paper they should win this game. They have far more playmakers on offense than Buffalo has right now however do not discount the fact that Miami is starting 6 guys on defense with 1 year or less NFL experience. Guys like Koa Misi and Jared Odrick were just handed starting jobs and that doesn't mean they will be instant success stories. Misi inparticular has been handled most of the preseason trying to establish and set the end for the 3-4 alignment. I look for him to have a rough first outing and in this writer's opinion as well as some local media down here in South Florida, he really should not be starting right now. You add in a questionable secondary for Miami and we could be talking about some really unhappy Miami fans opening weekend. Hopefully the offense for Miami will be enough.

Ronnie Brown: Despite 5 seasons in division with the Buffalo Bills, Ronnie Brown has only participated in 2 road games up in Orchard Park due to injuries every year. In 2005 his rookie year he posted a 17/97 performance and in 2008 he was able to total up 88 yds on 16 carries and 2 receptions. He is not a sure thing to score this weekend. I am betting most that took Ronnie Brown are not banking on him to be their go to RB. I would rate him as a decent play but nothing that absolutely needs to be a must start. In fact you will probably see Ricky get in on some of the action this weekend.

Ricky Williams: In 2008 he had 40 yds on 11 carries @Buff, and last year during a Miami loss to buffalo on the road he managed to rack 115 yds and a TD on the ground. In Miami he was also able to post 85 yds on 16 carries and a TD so he has had some moderate success against the Bills. Again, Ricky was likely an RB3 selection for many, doubtful you absolutely must play him in week1 and since he is not the starting RB I would try to find more pop elsewhere on your roster. That said Ricky seems to do well against buffalo including when he first started in Miami back in 2002-2003.

C.J.Spiller: The health status of Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch is a little bit fuzzy right now but we do know that Spiller seems to be healthy and has looked pretty good in the preseason for whatever that is worth. People are going to overlook the Buffalo OL but right now they have a lot more chemistry than the Miami DL which features Kendall Langford(3rd year-run specialist), Randy Starks(1st year at NT), and Odrick a rookie from Penn State who was basically handed a starting job. At ILB, Dansby will want to show he was worth the $40+ million Miami ponied up, but the OLBs for Miami are a big mystery right now and Spiller might be able to get loose along the sides for a couple big gains in this one. Miami was good at shutting the run down early in the preseason but Spiller having a decent 1st game out of the box would not surprise me. Is Spiller a must start? Absolutely not, but this matchup is decent and he could make a nice flex option this week if he can catch a few balls.

Final Score: Miami 20…Buffalo 17



Carolina at NY Giants (-7) (41.5)

The Giants were not a great running team late last year. In fact the final 7 weeks of the season saw them put up rushing totals of 88(week11), 57(week12), 60(week16), 35(week17), and 2 of the other 3 games were 100 and 114 respectively, not real strong numbers for a team that is better known as having a good ground game. They compounded the problem with a lot of turnovers down the stretch as well. But things are and have been changing in New York as they move towards a more vertical passing game with guys like Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Steve Smith, and even other WRs with a lot of promise behind them. How will this help the running game opening week? Julius Peppers is no longer around to disrupt the QB for Carolina so they might have to commit more to the passing game and thus allow a few more running lanes for Bradshaw and Jacobs, at least we can talk about the possibilities.

On the flipside the lack of a good QB and several weapons at WR after Steve Smith for Carolina is going to hurt them as they try and pound the football. Matt Moore said in the preseason openly on the TV reports that their game plan is to run the ball and that will not change. Sounds very john Fox like which is why he probably will be fired at the end of the season.

DeAngelo Williams/JStewart: The fact is that Stewart has not touched the ball much if at all in the preseason. Maybe Carolina was resting him for the regular season but they were letting Williams get plenty of action and he actually has racked up 20 TDs in a season so you would think they value him as much or more than Stewart at this point. I am not going to debate who's the better back, in fact I think it is mildly obvious who should be getting the majority of the touches. But the fact is when both are healthy they will split a lot of the carries. For week1 with Stewart not participating much in camp and preseason you have to assume John Fox will go with the veteran for a majority of the touches. Will DeAngelo be effective? In early road games in 2008 he was pretty avg. 86 yds @SD, 27yds @MN, and 27yds @TB. In 2009 he was a little better with 16/79 plus 4/42 and a TD @Atl, and then a mediocre 11/64 @Dallas…he certainly is not a gimme to walk up to New York and lay big points on them. There is however another back who did tattoo these guys last season. Stewart went up there and had a career day with 206 yds rushing on 28 carries and a TD to boot. I'm sure New York has not forgotten about that and will be going all out to shut down the Panthers ground game this time out. I am not expecting major points from the Carolina run game this weekend but realize that folks who took these 2 backs are going to want to play them both…one because he cost a 2nd round pick and the other based on last year's stats. Owners beware.

Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs: I guess we are going to find out very quickly just how much of the workload Bradshaw is going to get. He has looked wonderful in the preseason. I hearken back to Siragusa in the middle of the season last year saying on Fox NFL during the game that the wrong RB is on the field for New York and he simply didn't understand why. Whether you like the guy or not (I happen to love his insight and takes) I think that was all I needed to hear to reaffirm what many of us knew already. Jacobs is more of a weapon to be used in and around the goal line and short yardage although he is not always a given to make positive yards. Ideally Bradshaw should get about 14-17 carries a game and 2-3 receptions while Jacobs should see around 8-12 carries including those near the goal line. Think Alstott and Dunn in Tampa, that's the best analogy I can really come up with. Jacobs is simply a monster at 260 lbs but he really cannot be an every down RB, finally the Giants are realizing that. I like Bradshaw a little more right now but that is mostly due to anticipation. Bradshaw was a not a great start many of the weeks last year so he is not a total given to have a big game out of the gate but you have to like what you have been watching in the preseason. He tends to play beyond his abilities though and can get injured, he needs to reel in just a little of his enthusiasm.

Final Score: New York 27…Carolina 14



Atlanta at Pittsburgh (+2.5) (38)

By now you know that Ben Roethlisberger has been suspended by Roger Goodell for at least the first few games of the season. It has been an eventful off season for Pittsburgh and their fans; I'm sure one they would soon like to forget. But the problem is they can't. Fox in primetime against the Emmys no less went with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman (their A-Team) and televised an exhibition game like it mattered. The lead story was Big Ben and his suspension…the heat is only going to go up form here. Ben might feel like he has moved on, the fans might feel like they have moved on, the HC might feel like he has moved on…but the media is going to continue to bring this up as the lead story and mention it during broadcasts, and the whole thing is going to perpetually be a mess. How can this team focus on football? Maybe if they were opening against Cleveland I might say they have a chance but Atlanta is a pretty good team with playoff aspirations. Nothing would make them happier than to march up into Pittsburgh and knock off a team that is well respected and a household icon for many.

Michael Turner: Here are some of Turner's road games on grass or natural surfaces away from the comfy confines of the dome he usually runs in…2008 @TB 14/42, @Car 18/56, @GB 26/120/TD(nice), @Phi 17/58(not sure what they play on), @Oak 30/139, @SD 30/120…in 2009 @NE 15/56/TD, @SF 22/97/3Tds…he is a mix of good and some bad on the road. I do know that Big Ben does not play on the defense and that Pittsburgh will be amped up to try and shut these guys down especially Turner. Almost all of Turner's games on the road east of the Mississippi have been downright avg to putrid. His road games in California look nice but remember he played in San Diego for a few years and probably is comfortable out there and familiar with things. I hate to rain on the Michael Turner parade but I would put the % chance of 100 yds and a TD for him at under 40-50%. Owners don't want to hear it but if he does well it would not be the norm for him. Perhaps the Steelers will realize how much they are going to stink it up on offense and quit on defense at the end of the game but I doubt it.

Rashard Mendenhall: His road games avg out better than his home games for whatever reason that is. You have suspect OL vs a pretty strong front 7 for Atlanta. To compound the problem you have either Byron "Winds up the Pitch" Leftwich or Dixon who may actually be the better option. Lefty was horrendous in the season opener for TB a year ago, can't see how his game has gotten any better. Atlanta has looked good on 1st unit during the preseason and they have a nice balanced offense that should eventually get them a lead and perhaps put Pitt in a place they really don't want to be, throwing the football. I know they are going to give Mendy as many carries as he can handle but will he find any holes to run through? That's the big question. And I might add if you look at Atlanta down the stretch last season they only allowed 100 yds rushing total on defense from 1 team in their last 7 weeks and that was Philly with 103. They posted 88/73/103/95/99/40/40…this is an improving defense and Mendenhall will have his work cut out for him.

I wrote this section a couple days ago, obviously Leftwich is hurt and now the Steelers are looking at possibly Charlie Batch to start QB over Dixon…oh my.

Final Score: Atlanta 21…Pittsburgh 17



Detroit @Chicago (-6) (43)

This is one of the games I am definitely interested in as both teams are sporting a lot of new players and systems. Stafford in year 2, Cutler in year 2 for the Bears and a new OC in Mike Martz who has always had success form his QB and passing games almost every place he has ever been. I want Detroit to be better and they will be in 2010 but how much ground have they made up after horrific 0-16 and then 2-14 campaigns the past 2 years. When the Lions win it is a cause for a celebration. Their last road win believe it or not was back in 2007 against (Anyone want to guess?)…that's right the Chicago Bears, who they beat 16-7, in fact they swept the Bears that year and Martz was the OC for Detroit, what irony in week 1!!!

Jahvid Best: The rookie is likely going to start and see plenty of action. I still worry about his size but it's like being at the top of the drop for a roller coaster, there is no turning back now so strap in and enjoy the ride everyone. Best has a lot of skills and should inject some spark into the ground game for Detroit which has sorely been lacking since the days when Kevin Jones was healthy. Chicago at home early in the season last year gave up 105 to Pitt and 90 yds to these Lions. They lost Brian Urlacher very early in the season and it took a toll with other injuries. Seems the Bears are always sustaining injuries. I don't think things will be easy for Detroit but they have a couple of new players along the OL that should help in this season opener. Their defense is better too and maybe they can capitalize on some turnovers which Cutler and the Bears are prone to do. Many owners want to play with their new toy and that's understandable but right now no one is going to have a completely accurate assessment of what best will do early on. There is a limit to what rookies typically do when they hit the field. If you want to see the high side, pull up "Cadillac's" early run in the NFL in 2005. I want to say LT had at least 100 yds rushing on something like 36 carries but I don't think Detroit will use him like that.

Matt Forte: Coming off a disappointing 2nd season but a lot of his was not his fault. The OL in Chicago is pretty much in the bottom of the league, something I don't believe will magically change this season. Forte however has looked pretty good even spectacular at times this preseason. Many were touting Chester Taylor but now I am not sure if Taylor will do more than 3rd down duty and the occasional 3rd or 4th drive for Chicago. We'll know a lot more after this game but Forte looks like the starting RB for now. Detroit is going to look a lot different to fans on defense this year but are they ready to have a season opener surprise like when Warren Sapp and the Bucs unleashed holy hell on Steve Young and the Niners week 1 in 1997? I don't think they are quite there yet but they will show improvement and owners should not look at them as a total pushover every week when they fill out their rosters.

Final Score: Chicago 24…Detroit 20



Cincinnati at New England (-5) (44.5)

Cedric Benson: Early last season the Bengals had a road game @Green Bay and they called upon Benson early and often. Despite the addition of TO and despite them looking like they can stretch the field more and more you have to think the game plan is going to be to keep Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Tom Brady on the sidelines as much as possible during this game. Benson has no one pushing him for touches and attempts. The Bengals have come a long way in a short period of time; this is not the same Cinci team you are accustomed to seeing. They weren't last year either but the playoffs left everyone with a sour taste in their mouth. I would likely roll with Benson week 1 as he seems safe to get about 20+ touches in this game unless things go hideously wrong for Cinci and they regress into a David Shula squad.

New England RBs: Avoid like the plague for week 1. We don't know who is really going to get all the carries and there is no reason to start Fred Taylor who went undrafted in many leagues early in the summer. This is a passing team and Cinci was really strong against the run last year. The preseason has done nothing to change anyone's mind.

Final Score: Cincinnati 24…New England 21



Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-3) (37)

Here are two teams that are in transition to find themselves both on offense and defense. The two teams racked up something like 25 losses between them last season. While we don't know much about the true identity of these squads we can make some assumptions based on the little bit we do know. The fact is both teams have pretty young and inexperienced WRs but they both have TEs that have a lot of NFL starts under their belts. Both coaches are trying to prove themselves and will need to come out of the early part of the season with a few wins in order to maintain their jobs. And both teams probably feel this is a winnable game on paper compared to some of their tougher challenges later on in the season. Also both teams have some identity in the running game so we may see a low scoring affair with a lot of hand offs to keep things close till the 4th quarter.

Jerome Harrison: A very undervalued RB and perhaps for good reason for the better part of the spring and summer in most fantasy circles. He had some competition brought in via Montario Hardesty who is now out for the season with a torn ACL. There are 2 camps when it comes to Harrison…on one side you have folks that dismiss his abilities and feel that his late season surge in stats was merely a product of Cleveland having nowhere to turn and based on the high number of carries that he was bound to produce the numbers he did get. Others feel he finally broke through and flashed some of the skills that allowed him to run for over 1900 yds and 16 TDs as a senior when he came out of Washington State back in 2005. Harrison has a solid chance to be the starter now and for those that might have taken him as a weaker RB2 or RB3 option, I think you are going to be happy with that investment when all is said and done. What are his stats going to be week1? The Bucs were the league's worst rushing defense in yards per carry (ypc) last season with 4.8 ypc. They surrendered almost 160 yds and 1TD per week on the ground. Cleveland has a decent OL and I think they will try and pound the ball some. They don't exactly strike fear at this point into defenses in the passing game. Also, the Bucs could be without Josh Freeman at QB, and even if he does play you might see some turnovers which he was prone to do last year and he has a broken thumb he is recovering from. A couple short fields could lead to some easy points for Harrison.

Peyton Hillis: Just monitor him for right now. If he does outplay Harrison by a good margin in week1, you might want to think about rostering him. I went back and checked his college stats and he never carried the ball more than about 60-65 times in a season while he was at Arkansas all 4 years. It would take a mighty leap by the front office and coaches to make him the primary weapon running the football. He is a big specimen though at 6-1 and 240 lbs, so look for him to be used in short yardage situations. Also he has pretty nice hands OOTB and could see some action there.

Cadillac Williams: Cleveland was not much better at stopping the run last year than Tampa Bay was, however the Bucs OL has regressed a lot the past year or two. Let's do a check up here and I am going to bring Kareem Huggins into the equation here. Despite Cadillac being the primary guy last year for the Bucs, he only got about 220 carries for the season. I cannot envision him being a 20 carry guy in the NFL with all the injuries that have mounted. That said, Huggins is pretty small at 5-9 and perhaps a hair under 200 lbs. He is a great story out of Hofstra but I don't see either back being dominant. They likely were not high picks in most leagues and should be thought of more as bye week fillers and RB4 types. Trying to guess which one will cash in is probably moot because quite frankly it could be either of them. Cadillac had a nice game 1 last year but he also posted stats at home throughout the season like 16/56-GB, 11/32-NO, 11/14-NYJ, 12/34-NE, 20/42-ATL, so he is far from a slam dunk to score. I would only think about this in dynasty leagues where you are trying to rack losses to get a higher rookie pick in 2011. We'll know more in a week or two about how Huggins will be used but I can almost guarantee he is going to see action, just not sure quite how much or extensively they want to roll with him.

Final Score: Cleveland 17…Tampa Bay 14



Denver at Jacksonville (-2.5) (39.5)

You are going to need to pay close attention to the IR (injury report) for this game. Several key players are nursing injuries. It's always tough for teams to travel cross country and perform well on the road. The humidity in Jacksonville week1 of the NFL season should not be downplayed and Denver will have a very rough go of it form a conditioning stand point when the game gets into the 2nd half, especially the 4th quarter as you have to believe this game will be somewhat close. These 2 teams have played a couple times in the past 2-3 years both of them were JAX wins in Denver 24-13 and 24-17.

All Denver RBs: The Jags have been middle of the road lately at stopping the run however at home they are actually a very strong team. Look what they did…they had rushing totals allowed last year of 95(TN), 55(StL), 60(KC), 53(BUF), 72(HOU), 61(Indy) and a couple times teams like Miami were able to have success in their backyard against them. I understand those were not the best offenses they faced but is Denver a world beater on offense? I think Denver will quickly realize they need to throw the football in order to win. Chad Henne looked like a Pro Bowl QB on this defense in the preseason so look for Denver to attack from the air. I would avoid almost all Denver RBs in week 1.

MJD: Simple, if he is anything from questionable on up you start him. Doubtful would be a red flag but you kind of know that if you follow the IR much. He might be probable which is even better or maybe he won't even be on the IR this week. Denver was pretty giving on the ground last year and I expect Jax to open with a win at home in this heat. Also Jax needs to keep that secondary off the field because Orton can hurt them. Denver will want no part of that OL come the 4th quarter so look for MJD to be in the top10 this week assuming he is healthy.

Final Score: Jacksonville 24…Denver 17



Houston at Indy (-2.5) (46.5)

These two teams are sure to spark fireworks week1. They have averaged their last 4 meeting of over 750 yds combined total offense. You don't need to overanalyze this game, just plug in anyone who is starting and cross your fingers. The ball gets spread around a lot but you are bound to score points in this game. The game is huge for Houston who has drafted really well the past 4-5 years and in any other division I believe they would be looked at as possible favorites but you stick them in with Indy and they are fighting for a wildcard spot…unless they can come out swinging and clobber these guys for once. As long as manning is the QB in Indy, I am afraid that might not happen. I will be watching this game closely but I also anticipate hearing a lot of cheering in the bars when these two teams take the field.

Arian Foster: Let's all dive into the Kool-Aid pool for week1. There simply are not any healthy RBs on the roster to the point they went out and signed Derrick Ward the past 24 hours. I see that as no threat to Foster whatsoever. Foster has looked sensational in the preseason. This OL while still not spectacular looks much improved even from when we released the OL article back in July. It will be a mild upset if Foster doesn't crack the top20 in his first start of the season. He might be even higher if Houston can establish a running game early on. The last 6 meetings against Indy the Texans have racked up less yds in their 1st outing of the season than their 2nd outing. '07-92, 120…'08-72, 114…'09-79, and 154…hopefully they can come out strong against Indy. I do think Bob Sanders will want to meet Foster during the game a few times and let him know he is lurking. Let's see if Foster can live up to the board hype and produce his 1st week out of the box.

Joseph Addai: He had a concussion in week3 of the preseason but he should be cleared to play. Addai has faced Houston 8 times and almost all of them he would have been top10-12 for the week. 104/TD, 108/4Rec, 91/2Tds, 71/TD, 150/2Tds, 110/2Tds…guy racks up points against them. You don't need to think much here. If he is healthy enough to start you play him. It would be hard to imagine you have 2 other better match ups on your rosters.

Final Score: Indianapolis 33…Houston 30, but I'm rooting for the Texans

Oakland at Tennessee (-6.5) (40.5)

I was a big fan of what Oakland had done in the off season. Turning the page on Russell, looking to get Michael Bush involved and possibly the RB2 even though they have a ton of money locked up in McFadden. All that aside they simply got hit with the injury bug a week ago and despite the fact I think they will be improved on offense; the flight across country could really hurt them week 1 and possibly they will struggle. I say possibly because on the flipside if Bruce Gradkowski is asked to start he is a perfect back up in the league and could surprise some folks. Remember the game he had in Pittsburgh a year ago, the guy has some cajones and that goes back to when he was starting for awhile in Tampa bay. He might not be the best starting QB in the league and probably not what you want to build your offense around but for 1 week until Campbell can be 100% I would not be that concerned with Bruce under center.

Michael Bush: Broken thumb had surgery and might miss a month. Tom Cable thinks he can play soon but most medical folks on the boards feel this is a 4-6 week process. Leave him on your bench for now.

Darren McFadden: Has looked terrible in the preseason, regular season, no reason to believe he is going to march into Tennessee and take the place by storm. You should have other options than McFadden week1, and if not you have bigger concerns.

Chris Johnson: I hear he is pretty good, fluid thru the hips, makes good cuts, and can take it the distance when need be. I'll step out and say he has a pretty good game 1. All kidding aside the Raiders are actually going to be better against the run but in week 1 they might not look so good against Chris Johnson and a determined TN running attack. I like the Titans and how Vince Young has progressed to lead this team. Look for the rookie ILB, McClain to make his presence felt in this game. I think he will have at least one "Hello" to Chris Johnson when he comes into his territory in the middle. He'll have to catch him 1st but I am pretty stoked about McClain added to the front seven to stabilize the middle for Oakland. He could be one of the best picks in the draft this past year and I see an early front runner for defensive rookie of the year.

Final Score: Tennessee 24…Oakland 17





Green Bay at Philadelphia (+3) (47.5)

This should be another fireworks game if Kolb and the Eagles can show the preseason was just that…preseason. The Packers have a lot to prove as they are now clearly the front runners in the NFC north. The Vikings have been nothing but distracted the past 2-3 weeks and I think Green Bay has a chance to jump out and seize control early. Marching into Philly week 1 will be no easy task but the Packers have the firepower to make defenses squeamish and DCs to get no sleep all week leading up to the games. Can Philly put 24-30 points on the board? Absolutely but can they keep Green Bay under 30…can anyone keep them under 30 this season?

Ryan Grant: Should be a nice 1st week. He is not explosive and will have many weeks of average production but you probably knew that when you drafted him. Can he go out and find 12-18 point against Philly? He should do OK. He broke 100 yds rushing twice last season on the road against Cleveland and an Urlachlerless Chicago team. Look for Grant to total about 75-100 yds but in this game he should get a crack or two from inside the 5 yd line. If he crashes and cashes in on those touches you should feel pretty good Monday morning.

LeSean McCoy: Because of the amount of points in this game and also since this is only his 2nd season, I want to believe he can go out and do fairly well. His stats last year are somewhat unimpressive but he was looking for time when Westbrook was the starter early in the season. I have not been impressed by him to this point in his career but he's young and I want to try and keep an open mind for the weekly thread right now. I want to see a couple of games from him to determine how strong of a play he can be in certain situations. The Packers were pretty stout against the run last year and didn't give up 100 yds rushing on the road after week3 of the season. They were lights out in stopping the run, in fact you take away the playoff run of THT on the 1st carry of the playoffs and they were pretty strong even in that game. Teams attack their passing defense; let's see if that trend can continue. McCoy is going to need to catch 3-5 balls in order to have a strong game this week.

Final Score: Green Bay 35…Philadelphia 21

San Fran at Seattle (+2.5) (37.5)

The Nest is always a tough place to come into and trounce the Seahawks. That said this team looks to be in a total rebuild mode. They have very little at WR right now, not much in the running game, a weak OL, a defense where if you can name their starters along the DL you are a better man than I. If this is a trap game I can see it as San Fran must play NO at home next week, a team they would like to make a statement with. I have to assume that Coach Singletary will have his team focused and the talent in San Fran should help them win this game fairly easily. But remember the fact this is in Seattle and the trap factor.

Frank Gore: In 3 of the last 4 games against Seattle, Gore has stats that look like this…19/61/TD+5/38 rec, 18/94+7/65 rec, 16/207/2Tds+5/39rec…his worst game he only had 9/25+5/37 rec…that seems like he simply did not get enough touches but he still managed double digits in PPR. No brainer here, you start him and smile.

Seattle RBs: You should really avoid this situation for right now. It looks like an RBBC where guys like Leon Washington are returning kicks which you would never do with your lead back. Forsett was underwhelming in the preseason and Pete Carroll is not showing a lot of confidence in anyone right now. The Seattle offense is a mess and San Fran should buck the trend as of late and blow these Seadogs out even if they have to run the ball 40 times to do it.

Final Score: San Fran 24…Seattle 9



Arizona at St Louis (+4) (39.5)

Ooooooof, I'm gonna be a few draft beers in by the time I glance at this game…oof. So many question marks in this game but dynasty owners will want to see the progress of Bradford, Wells, etc…St Louis has won 2 home games in 3 seasons…they are 2-22 at home the past 3 years. Their last home win was against the Dallas Cowboys back in 2008 in case you were interested.

Chris Wells: Check the IR because he might have suffered something in the past week. Early prognosis was nothing serious but THT is always under the radar and this week he might end up scoring more points as a nice check down for Anderson.

Tim Hightower: As a flex option, especially in dynasty where you have a pretty set roster year to year, no reason to think Hightower won't see plenty of receptions with boldin now gone and no clear 2nd, 3rd, and 4th WR slots set anymore. @St L last year he had 14/110+2/15rec. 35 yds and a TD later in the season when Wells was getting a little more action. In 2008 @St L he had 22/109/TD, and then again had 30+ yds and a TD at home later in the season. If you believe in trends he should have a decent game on the road in St Louis, it has been a place where he has had success. Hightower could be the sleeper of the week.

Steven Jackson: Due a lot to injuries SJax has not always performed as well as you would hope the past 2-3 years against Arizona. They lost Dansby and Rolle, they should be ripe to be run on. Bradford has looked good in the preseason but any rookie should struggle their first time out of the gate so look for the Rams to lean on Jackson a lot in week 1. He should easily pop into the top12 this week. And while I have been hard on him this off season he has a really nice schedule this year and could be in for a big year if they can get any type of rush attack out of their OL. Bradford keeping teams honest would sure be a big plus too. Here is hoping to this guy staying healthy this year, we need more stud RBs in the mix.

Final Score: Arizona 21…St Louis 20



Dallas at Washington (+4) (40.5)

Dallas has looked terrible in the preseason but you cannot just look at that and measure what they will do in the regular season. The fact is Washington has a poor front 7 right now and will likely be one of the bottom teams against the run this year. They have not looked real good in the preseason and there are questions whether McNabb will be ready to go week 1. It is hard to gauge the Skins based on the past 2 seasons because things were wrong under Zorn and went downhill. Shanny is a better coach and will scheme better even with lesser talent. Rarely is he outcoached in football games and rarely does he ever really have a team that posts 4-12 type seasons.

Marion Barber III: Back in March/April it was released that Felix Jones was going to be the starter. Well well well, when training camp opened Barber showed up weighing in at 218 lbs, a good 10-15 less than what he has been playing at, and he appeared much quicker sometimes even quicker on cute than Felix who certainly has better flat out breakaway speed. Last year both RBs were really able to be counted on and MB III did an admirable job from an NFL standpoint of trying to go out there and compete each week with pain in his legs. He showed Dallas why they paid him $30-$35 million a couple years ago. I see him getting somewhere in the 12 to maybe 17 carry range most weeks depending on where Dallas is ahead or behind in the football games. On paper they should take a big ugly stick to Washington this week so I expect barber to be a decent play with perhaps 75-80 yds of offense and a couple cracks at the end zone, maybe 2-3 receptions too. 10-15 points in PPR leagues and a decent flex option.

Felix Jones: Similar to Barber but less carries. Felix should get between 8-12 carries and hoefully 3-4 receptions but it's what he does with them that makes him explosive. He could rack up 100 yds rushing on 10 carries easily because of his long runs. I would not start him as my Rb2, too much risk but maybe in a flex spot he fits better until we see exactly what the intention is for both backs in 2010. Last year was marred by injuries to both of them; let's see if they can stay healthy.



Clinton Portis: Should be the go to guy at RB initially for Shanny and this offense. I don't see a big day in store against Dallas in week 1. Dallas has kept the Skins in check with rushing totals allowed the past 3 games of 92, 78, and 43 however it should also be noted that Portis did not play in either of the Dallas games last year. Portis will see plenty of carries and opps but can he move the sticks against a defense that probably doesn't see the passing game as a major weapon with little to hurt them on the outside so they can focus their attention to stopping the run?

Final Score: Dallas 27…Washington 17

Baltimore at NYJets (-2) (36)

I am a little surprised at the line and then again maybe not. Both teams have strong defenses but decent offenses and Baltimore has a suspect secondary right now that could cause them to open up the playbook a little more and try to attack Revis Island and whatever is filling that spot which as of right now looks to be Jimmy Johnson…sorry that's Survivor I get so confused in my old age. This should be a great game and certainly a fantastic way to kick off Monday Night Football. Gruden should be on all cylinders for this one.

Ray Rice: Rice only broke the 100 yd barrier on the road during the regular FF season once and that was at NE in week 4. But racking 100 yds on the ground is not his big sticking point. It's what he adds in the receiving game and last year he broke the 40 yd mark 4 times the 1st half of the year and zero times on the road in the 2nd half of the season. I am one that thinks he numbers are going to dip a little bit this year but since Baltimore will probably pass more this week than normal against the Jets I like him to have a pretty solid day OOTB and with that and his rushing yds you can see something like 15/60+4/40rec which should put him in the top15-20 for the week. It won't be a cakewalk that's for sure but owners also would not be wise to bench the guy week 1…unless you have superior match ups in other games. But drafting a guy as high as 1.03 and then not using him in the 1st game of the season seems like crazy talk.

Shonn Greene: I am not optimistic that he will run over Ray lewis and one of the most ferocious front 7 defenses you will find anywhere in the NFL. Despite a superior OL to most, this will not be a great coming out party for Greene in week1. I'm not even saying that LT will post great numbers in week 1 but I do think the Jets will have to take to the air at some point and that will eventually cause Sanchez to turn the ball over. The Jets should have some weeks where they are cruising and a healthy dose of Greene and maybe even LT will be just what the doctor ordered. But this week I see Baltimore stacking the line and daring Sanchez to connect with their WRs in the secondary.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Don't be surprised if he ends up with fewer touches but more points in this game. In fact that could happen a few times this year but Greene is clearly the starter for now and should be respected as such.

Final Score: Baltimore 20…New York 16



San Diego at Kansas City (+5.5) (45)

San Diego has won the last 5 meeting against Kansas City and blew them out twice last year by about 30 points in each game. Arrowhead is never easy to just show up and take the game but San Diego should have an advantage in this one. I am anxious to see the impact that Weiss and Romeo have on both sides of the line and units. KC could surprise in this game because San Diego might have trouble attacking them from the outside with their WRs which are largely unproven. Look for a steady diet of Ryan Mathews in his 1st game in the NFL.

Ryan Mathews: He might get winded into the 2nd half as the NFL can take a toll on rookies but he should see plenty of action. He has looked really good in the preseason and bounced off a lot of tacklers. We don't have a track record yet but we all feel that KC is somewhat suspect on defense and this game should be a good measuring stick. Marcus McNeil as I know is still holding out and the OL for San Diego could have a couple holes in it if KC can exploit that. Mathews seems like a lock in week 1 to total 100 yds and find pay dirt against the Chiefs. I would lock and load.

Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones: I want to green light Charles but you know that Haley is going to work both of them and probably allow the hot hand sort of speak to take over. If it is Charles then look for him to be the weekly starter more and more. But no matter who takes the field first, look for both to contribute and there is no denying the big play ability of Charles. I expect him to flash at least 2-3 defining plays in this game where folks can point to and easily see that he needs to be on the field. I am a huge Thomas Jones fan and supporter; he has turned his career around since leaving AZ but he is aging and he has seen a lot of action the past 5 years. I think it only pushes Charles to explode when he sees the field so he can get more opps during the game. Let's see how KC comes out in week 1 and if we can draw more conclusions for next week. Most drafted Jones in the double digit rounds, why not let him sit for a week and if you can play Charles in a flex spot for week1 I would jump on it depending on the make-up of your roster.

Final Score: San Diego 27…Kansas City 23

Good Luck everybody!

 
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Brady Gaga

Footballguy
Spiller could have a big game against the Phins. Phins always seem to have trouble with Bills RBs. Fred Jackson isn't even ready yet and Marshawn looks meh. The Phins have questions at OLB and even ILB with Crowder still bothered with an injury. Phins also have bad STs coverage. If Spiller gets off to a fast start, he could surprise with a huge year and end up a top pick in 2011.

SJax and Mathews should also have big days.

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Spiller could have a big game against the Phins. Phins always seem to have trouble with Bills RBs. Fred Jackson isn't even ready yet and Marshawn looks meh. The Phins have questions at OLB and even ILB with Crowder still bothered with an injury. Phins also have bad STs coverage. If Spiller gets off to a fast start, he could surprise with a huge year and end up a top pick in 2011.

SJax and Mathews should also have big days.
I tagged both of SJax and Mathews green for week 1, seems like they should both have strong openings.
 
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Clifton

Footballguy
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.

Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.
You are too kind Clifton. I will be doing some game recaps this year. Sigmund is still rounding out the writers. One thing you have to understand is this thread probably doesn't work except in the forum. The interaction throughout the week is what drives it. I'm glad you enjoy it.
 

Instinctive

Footballguy
You mention a Beanie Wells injury?

"heck the IR because he might have suffered something in the past week. Early prognosis was nothing serious but THT is always under the radar and this week he might end up scoring more points as a nice check down for Anderson. "

I totally missed that. Link?

ETA: You mention Hillis never getting over 65 carries at Arkansas...wasn't he behind Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, both now the #1 options for their teams? I could be wrong, but I have a feeling they're all the same age. Not something I would hold against him if that's the case indeed.

 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
You mention a Beanie Wells injury?

"heck the IR because he might have suffered something in the past week. Early prognosis was nothing serious but THT is always under the radar and this week he might end up scoring more points as a nice check down for Anderson. "

I totally missed that. Link?

ETA: You mention Hillis never getting over 65 carries at Arkansas...wasn't he behind Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, both now the #1 options for their teams? I could be wrong, but I have a feeling they're all the same age. Not something I would hold against him if that's the case indeed.
Shin But I guess he is going to be fine

 
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Instinctive

Footballguy
And do you have any insight into Hillis? I just checked, and here's what I came up with:

Hillis: 3rd season out of Arkansas

McFadden: 3rd season out of Arkansas

Jones: 3rd season out of Arkansas

Jones and McFadden are 23, Hillis is 24. Looks like Hillis definitely had to play behind the dual 1st round explosive RB threats at Arkansas. I wouldn't consider that a knock against him.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
And do you have any insight into Hillis? I just checked, and here's what I came up with:Hillis: 3rd season out of ArkansasMcFadden: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones and McFadden are 23, Hillis is 24. Looks like Hillis definitely had to play behind the dual 1st round explosive RB threats at Arkansas. I wouldn't consider that a knock against him.
And if Hillis was behind Harrison in 2005 at Wash St when he racked up 2,100 yds and 19 TDs we would say the same thing I guess. I would keep an eye on Hillis but I don't see him taking over in Cleveland. We have seen what RBs do in Denver under Shanny, that has not always meant success other places. I like Harrison to start and do well this week. Would you play Hillis this week?
 

Multiple Scores

Footballguy
Non PPR league, which of these to bench, just 1 to my bench - Mathews, Wells, Greene, Benson.... Leaning towards Greene to the bench vs. Ravens, not sure if that's a mistake though cause not sure about how many touches Wells gets.

 

Instinctive

Footballguy
And do you have any insight into Hillis? I just checked, and here's what I came up with:Hillis: 3rd season out of ArkansasMcFadden: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones and McFadden are 23, Hillis is 24. Looks like Hillis definitely had to play behind the dual 1st round explosive RB threats at Arkansas. I wouldn't consider that a knock against him.
And if Hillis was behind Harrison in 2005 at Wash St when he racked up 2,100 yds and 19 TDs we would say the same thing I guess. I would keep an eye on Hillis but I don't see him taking over in Cleveland. We have seen what RBs do in Denver under Shanny, that has not always meant success other places. I like Harrison to start and do well this week. Would you play Hillis this week?
No, but then again, I wouldn't play Harrison. I'd expect to have 2 RBs and a flex guy(W/R) better on my squad. :unsure: If I had Harrison as a guy I drafted under the elite WRs, elite QB, elite TE, then take a RB strategy (which I use) then I'd be playing him. And Hillis wasn't behind Harrison. Who's to say if Hillis had been at Wash St that Harrison wouldn't have been behind him? It's a terrible point to make, no offense. One guy sat behind two 1st round picks who are NFL starters now, but still got drafted closer to Harrison than Harrison did to them. It's definitely something to think about.In short, not saying Harrison is a terrible play here, but rather that you seem to be reaching your outcome through a poor process. Something like: "Harrison has been getting all the 1st team reps, GL work, and has the playbook down better from last year while Hillis has been seeing most of his snaps split at FB with Vickers" would be a much better process. I think that your outcome makes sense, but that your reasoning for it does not. Hillis never having that many carries is poor process because of the reasons he never did. It's like saying the derivative of x-squared is 2x because taking the square root of x and multiplying by 2 is how you get the derivative. It isn't, even though 2x is in fact the derivative of x-squared.I'd be worried that neither will score that much because they'll eat into each other, and Cribbs can eat into both of them. I would be getting Cribs the ball if I was the OC. If I had to start one, I would pick Harrison. But Hillis's collegiate carries are absolutely not a factor.
 

Instinctive

Footballguy
Non PPR league, which of these to bench, just 1 to my bench - Mathews, Wells, Greene, Benson.... Leaning towards Greene to the bench vs. Ravens, not sure if that's a mistake though cause not sure about how many touches Wells gets.
Let's not make this an ACF...but rather a discussion of your thoughts on each:Mathews looks to be the centerpiece of the SD attack this year, as does Benson in Cincy. So who do we prefer: Greene or wells?With DA at QB, the Cardinals could end up without a whole lot of sustained drives, meaning less touches for Wells. It could also mean Wells and THT both get a large amount of touches. Greene plays for a team without its best receiver and a QB who also has a tendency to make mistakes. However, Greene plays the Ravens...potential death to RBs in recent years not named Cedric Benson.In this case, it would appear that Wells has higher upside as well as a higher floor. I'd bench Greene.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
And do you have any insight into Hillis? I just checked, and here's what I came up with:Hillis: 3rd season out of ArkansasMcFadden: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones and McFadden are 23, Hillis is 24. Looks like Hillis definitely had to play behind the dual 1st round explosive RB threats at Arkansas. I wouldn't consider that a knock against him.
And if Hillis was behind Harrison in 2005 at Wash St when he racked up 2,100 yds and 19 TDs we would say the same thing I guess. I would keep an eye on Hillis but I don't see him taking over in Cleveland. We have seen what RBs do in Denver under Shanny, that has not always meant success other places. I like Harrison to start and do well this week. Would you play Hillis this week?
No, but then again, I wouldn't play Harrison. I'd expect to have 2 RBs and a flex guy(W/R) better on my squad. :unsure: If I had Harrison as a guy I drafted under the elite WRs, elite QB, elite TE, then take a RB strategy (which I use) then I'd be playing him. And Hillis wasn't behind Harrison. Who's to say if Hillis had been at Wash St that Harrison wouldn't have been behind him? It's a terrible point to make, no offense. One guy sat behind two 1st round picks who are NFL starters now, but still got drafted closer to Harrison than Harrison did to them. It's definitely something to think about.In short, not saying Harrison is a terrible play here, but rather that you seem to be reaching your outcome through a poor process. Something like: "Harrison has been getting all the 1st team reps, GL work, and has the playbook down better from last year while Hillis has been seeing most of his snaps split at FB with Vickers" would be a much better process. I think that your outcome makes sense, but that your reasoning for it does not. Hillis never having that many carries is poor process because of the reasons he never did. It's like saying the derivative of x-squared is 2x because taking the square root of x and multiplying by 2 is how you get the derivative. It isn't, even though 2x is in fact the derivative of x-squared.I'd be worried that neither will score that much because they'll eat into each other, and Cribbs can eat into both of them. I would be getting Cribs the ball if I was the OC. If I had to start one, I would pick Harrison. But Hillis's collegiate carries are absolutely not a factor.
Tampa Bay has a weak rushing defense even with McCoy at DT. Harrison is starting to my knowledge so I see him posting pretty strong numbers week 1. I put a green highlight on him so if I am wrong I'm sure I'll hear about it. I like him plety in the flex for sure. You have some valid points but my process mostly wraps around Harrison being a feature back most of his career and Hillis being a 6-1 240 lb bruiser that screams more short yardage to me possible goal lone touches. I feel Harrison can break a couple against the Bucs with his OL.
 

Hooper31

Footballguy
Just an FYI with regard to the Seattle defense. Its completely understandable that you don't know who is playing on the defensive line for Seattle. They get virtually no nationwide press, and I can't say they deserve it. However, The problem they have on defense will be lack of pass rush. They will likely get torched through the air. This said, they should able to stop the run just fine. They moved DT Red Bryant to DE, and he's a substantial addition to their run defense. Also, as long as LB Lofa Tatupu stays healthy will be play solid team defense. His presence in the middle of the defense is important to the entire unit.

 

Sweatpants

Footballguy
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.
Completely agree. Huge fan
 

Clifton

Footballguy
bg0546 said:
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.
Maybe because he doesn't know the difference between the words compliment and complement? And, he seems to have a problem with people who like Tuna sandwiches.
Lets not do this here.
 

The Jacket

Footballguy
You should follow through with your desire to green-light Charles. He only needed 17 touches against the Chargers last year to put up 150 yards and a touch. The OL is better, the passing game is better, and the Chargers defense is no better, at least on paper.

I'd be tempted to red-light Jones, but it's true that he could vulture a TD. That alone I guess makes him a passable play.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
You should follow through with your desire to green-light Charles. He only needed 17 touches against the Chargers last year to put up 150 yards and a touch. The OL is better, the passing game is better, and the Chargers defense is no better, at least on paper.

I'd be tempted to red-light Jones, but it's true that he could vulture a TD. That alone I guess makes him a passable play.
Jamaal Charles
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Gotta choose between Bradshaw / Harrison / Greene... I love Greene but the safe play maybe to BN him Monday night
Hey Kelly, let me use this as an example of how I would want to see folks try and construct this. Because if you read up top I have Harrison and Bradshaw more as plays and am pretty blunt about Greene.Example: This weekend I have to choose between Harrison/Bradshaw/Greene. Looks like Greene is going to be a tough match up but I feel he is a decent play because MOP is discounting the OL and making Baltimore out to be the '75 Steel Curtain. Greene will get plenty of touches and I don't see him landing outside the top10...Harrison can't stay ahead of Hillis so I don't think I can bring myself to playing him instead oif Greene. That's just an example and I understand not everyone will post that much but it helps. Also you can say something like "Does anyone else have 12 pts per TD in TD heavy leagues and thinks that Greene is still due for a beeter weekend than Harrison? You'll get a lot of feedback that way. Good luck Kelly and I think you know how I feel about those three. Feel free to post concerns you have and we'll try and discuss. Thanks... :yes:
 

Clifton

Footballguy
bg0546 said:
bg0546 said:
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.
Maybe because he doesn't know the difference between the words compliment and complement? And, he seems to have a problem with people who like Tuna sandwiches.
Lets not do this here.
Did you read his post about RB's? Don't you think tha t someone posting their opinions should understand the difference between the words "compliment" and "complement"? Seems significant to me. :lmao:
:yes:
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
bg0546 said:
bg0546 said:
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.
Maybe because he doesn't know the difference between the words compliment and complement? And, he seems to have a problem with people who like Tuna sandwiches.
Lets not do this here.
Did you read his post about RB's? Don't you think tha t someone posting their opinions should understand the difference between the words "compliment" and "complement"? Seems significant to me.
Sorry you feel that way bg, feel free to link to some of the threads you have started and discussed, I'm always trying to learn. If my writing isn't up to your standards then so be it, your loss.
 
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buckeye35

Footballguy
NOW it feels like football season. Great to see you back at it -- I know it takes a ton of time, but it's much appreciated. I can't even really find much to debate. Solid all the way around. ;)

 

dmac37

Footballguy
You mention a Beanie Wells injury?"heck the IR because he might have suffered something in the past week. Early prognosis was nothing serious but THT is always under the radar and this week he might end up scoring more points as a nice check down for Anderson. "I totally missed that. Link?ETA: You mention Hillis never getting over 65 carries at Arkansas...wasn't he behind Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, both now the #1 options for their teams? I could be wrong, but I have a feeling they're all the same age. Not something I would hold against him if that's the case indeed.
Great job MOP but just like Instictive I did not understand either of these points.I drafted both the Carolina RB's and both AZ RB's and plan on starting D Will and Hightower week 1, can't see Stew getting more than a few touches in week 1 and Hightower seems like the play for now. I also own Hillis and would really like to pull the trigger and start him this week but want to confirm if they use him like I think they will.I'm thinking by week 3 Hillis will be a regular in my RB starting lineup rotation depending on matchup. Just listened to Cecils lexycast and he seemed to have the opinion of Hillis being the lead back in Cleveland, he mentioned "a RBBC featuring Hillis with a little Harrison sprinkled in" after a week or two. It will be interesting how this plays out
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
You mention a Beanie Wells injury?"heck the IR because he might have suffered something in the past week. Early prognosis was nothing serious but THT is always under the radar and this week he might end up scoring more points as a nice check down for Anderson. "I totally missed that. Link?ETA: You mention Hillis never getting over 65 carries at Arkansas...wasn't he behind Felix Jones and Darren McFadden, both now the #1 options for their teams? I could be wrong, but I have a feeling they're all the same age. Not something I would hold against him if that's the case indeed.
Great job MOP but just like Instictive I did not understand either of these points.I drafted both the Carolina RB's and both AZ RB's and plan on starting D Will and Hightower week 1, can't see Stew getting more than a few touches in week 1 and Hightower seems like the play for now. I also own Hillis and would really like to pull the trigger and start him this week but want to confirm if they use him like I think they will.I'm thinking by week 3 Hillis will be a regular in my RB starting lineup rotation depending on matchup. Just listened to Cecils lexycast and he seemed to have the opinion of Hillis being the lead back in Cleveland, he mentioned "a RBBC featuring Hillis with a little Harrison sprinkled in" after a week or two. It will be interesting how this plays out
Nice post DMac. Great job of showing logically why you feel that way. Cecil is a good guy and I know he and Sig are pretty high on Hillis right now. Because I respect those guys I do take notice but right now I feel Harrison will show his chops week 1 against Tampa. It should be a good match up but I've been known to be wrong before.
 

jon_mx

Footballguy
There is a limit to what rookies typically do when they hit the field. If you want to see the high side, pull up "Cadillac's" early run in the NFL in 2005. I want to say LT had at least 100 yds rushing on something like 36 carries but I don't think Detroit will use him like that.
I am not sure I was be that concerned about starting a rookie running back. Billy Simms for Detroit went for a $1.53 and three TDs in his very first game. Yes, it took LT 36 carries to get 113 yards, and he added 2 TDs. Curtis Martin went over 100 his first game along with a TD. Unless you have two top 10 RB's on your team, I would not hesitate to start Best. I will be starting Best and Rice and be keeping Forte on the bench week 1.
 
And do you have any insight into Hillis? I just checked, and here's what I came up with:Hillis: 3rd season out of ArkansasMcFadden: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones: 3rd season out of ArkansasJones and McFadden are 23, Hillis is 24. Looks like Hillis definitely had to play behind the dual 1st round explosive RB threats at Arkansas. I wouldn't consider that a knock against him.
Hillis should've transfered like Brandon Jacobs did.Many don't realize that Jacobs was behind both Ronnie Brown and Caddy Williams at Auburn, then he transfered to Southern Illinois.
 

BustedKnuckles

Footballguy
bg0546 said:
How is this guy not on staff? Seriously....no shtick. Guy could run his own Fantasy Football site for crying out loud.Keep it up, pal. Big fan. Your RB threads are mandatory reading for anyone who wants to rise to Hawk status.
Maybe because he doesn't know the difference between the words compliment and complement? And, he seems to have a problem with people who like Tuna sandwiches.
Lets not do this here.
guys like bg0546 are the reason someone came up with the expression...'' there`s one in every crowd'' :lmao:
 
And do you have any insight into Hillis? I just checked, and here's what I came up with:

Hillis: 3rd season out of Arkansas

McFadden: 3rd season out of Arkansas

Jones: 3rd season out of Arkansas

Jones and McFadden are 23, Hillis is 24. Looks like Hillis definitely had to play behind the dual 1st round explosive RB threats at Arkansas. I wouldn't consider that a knock against him.
And if Hillis was behind Harrison in 2005 at Wash St when he racked up 2,100 yds and 19 TDs we would say the same thing I guess. I would keep an eye on Hillis but I don't see him taking over in Cleveland. We have seen what RBs do in Denver under Shanny, that has not always meant success other places. I like Harrison to start and do well this week. Would you play Hillis this week?
No, but then again, I wouldn't play Harrison. I'd expect to have 2 RBs and a flex guy(W/R) better on my squad. :lmao: If I had Harrison as a guy I drafted under the elite WRs, elite QB, elite TE, then take a RB strategy (which I use) then I'd be playing him. And Hillis wasn't behind Harrison. Who's to say if Hillis had been at Wash St that Harrison wouldn't have been behind him? It's a terrible point to make, no offense. One guy sat behind two 1st round picks who are NFL starters now, but still got drafted closer to Harrison than Harrison did to them. It's definitely something to think about.

In short, not saying Harrison is a terrible play here, but rather that you seem to be reaching your outcome through a poor process. Something like: "Harrison has been getting all the 1st team reps, GL work, and has the playbook down better from last year while Hillis has been seeing most of his snaps split at FB with Vickers" would be a much better process. I think that your outcome makes sense, but that your reasoning for it does not. Hillis never having that many carries is poor process because of the reasons he never did. It's like saying the derivative of x-squared is 2x because taking the square root of x and multiplying by 2 is how you get the derivative. It isn't, even though 2x is in fact the derivative of x-squared.

I'd be worried that neither will score that much because they'll eat into each other, and Cribbs can eat into both of them. I would be getting Cribs the ball if I was the OC. If I had to start one, I would pick Harrison. But Hillis's collegiate carries are absolutely not a factor.
Tampa Bay has a weak rushing defense even with McCoy at DT. Harrison is starting to my knowledge so I see him posting pretty strong numbers week 1. I put a green highlight on him so if I am wrong I'm sure I'll hear about it. I like him plety in the flex for sure. You have some valid points but my process mostly wraps around Harrison being a feature back most of his career and Hillis being a 6-1 240 lb bruiser that screams more short yardage to me possible goal lone touches. I feel Harrison can break a couple against the Bucs with his OL.
I think the TB front 4 and the Detroit front 4 are similar. However one gets hyped and one doesn't :shrug:
 

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