benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Not just Lofa...all those Linebackers are scary.....Curry, Hawthorne.FTA: Great post MOP
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RBs to Exploit and Avoid Week 1 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
They all start off good don't they?
westcoastbias
Footballguy
+1Grammar guy can gtfo. As an owner of addai, thomas, portis and harrison, I'll be making decisions every week. The addai v houston info just got me half way there.This thread is always a good read. Keep 'em coming.
HellToupee
Footballguy
although I disagree with some of analysis from time-to-time this weekly thread is hands down my favorite in the pool during the season. Good stuff as usual MOP
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
It was when I started writing this. It might have moved a little bit. I think anything under 7 I would take the Saints. How is Minnesota going to get it together before week 1? Favre has not looked good at all in the preseason IMO. While NO has still got their SB win on the brains, Brew Brees is the pinnacle of what a professional athlete should do and I can't imagine he will show up unprepared or have his guys unprepared for the season opener. It could get ugly.Great thread each week/season MOP - thanks!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
My favorite avatar. Thanks HT, feel free to discuss the games or players you disagree with.although I disagree with some of analysis from time-to-time this weekly thread is hands down my favorite in the pool during the season. Good stuff as usual MOP
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
It's interesting because many times the NFL has games in week 1 where there isn't much to draw from but I found a lot of the games to be divisional match ups right out of the shoot and certainly we can go back and take a look at what happened in seasons past. Even some of the nondivisional games allowed for some patterns over the past 2-3 seasons. Addai really has racked it up on Houston. I hope he is over the concussion.westcoastbias said:+1Grammar guy can gtfo. As an owner of addai, thomas, portis and harrison, I'll be making decisions every week. The addai v houston info just got me half way there.Ghost Rider said:This thread is always a good read. Keep 'em coming.
Max Maximus
Footballguy
Great work, great analysis!
Das Boot
Footballguy
Thanks, I was just curious how you set your scoring predictions.I just checked, looks like NO -4.5Which is about what I would have expected - you don't usually see 7+ lines on games with good teams.But if I was to put a bet on this game, I'd definitely take NO and give the points.I think it will quickly turn into aIt was when I started writing this. It might have moved a little bit. I think anything under 7 I would take the Saints. How is Minnesota going to get it together before week 1? Favre has not looked good at all in the preseason IMO. While NO has still got their SB win on the brains, Brew Brees is the pinnacle of what a professional athlete should do and I can't imagine he will show up unprepared or have his guys unprepared for the season opener. It could get ugly.Great thread each week/season MOP - thanks!
for Minn. this year.I think in regards to the Dallas running game, we start seeing the beginning of Felix handling the majority of carries and play time for the Cowboys. Unless its a blowout, I'd be suprised if Felix doesn't handle the majority of carries. We haven't been able to see much in the preseason on how this will pan out, but given the O-Line worries, I think this game against Washington leads to more rushing attempts. I'm thinking 15-20 for Felix and 10-15 for Barber, unless its a total blowout in the 4th. On top of that I think McNabb keeps this game close. I am starting Felix with confidence.
Of course any injury throws this equation out.....
Of course any injury throws this equation out.....
BallparkFrank
Footballguy
Am I way off base for feeling the exact opposite regarding Felix and Barber? I've had both in a keeper league for a couple years now and I'm starting Barber without hesitation. Given their respective ADP's, I think Barber could easily be the SOD this year. It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Both of us maybe be drinking the Kool-aid for our respective guys, but I am judging this based on last seasons trend or what I see as a trend.. Felix began the year getting around 8 carries a game, which progressed to around 10 at the half way point. The last quarter of the season, Felix was around 15 carries a game. I see this trend continuing... Maybe its wishful thinking......
J Giles Band
Footballguy
MOP - I've somehow missed your RB threads in the past likely because I don't typically venture to the shark pool looking to answer starting lineup questions. That said, I found your post an excellent read.
As you know already, you'll not always find everyone in agreement with your opinions, but I respect the fact you're willing to take the time to share them. The time you've put in and homework you've done alone makes your work credible.
Thanks again. I look forward to reading all season.
As you know already, you'll not always find everyone in agreement with your opinions, but I respect the fact you're willing to take the time to share them. The time you've put in and homework you've done alone makes your work credible.
Thanks again. I look forward to reading all season.
heidbrink
Footballguy
Thanks MOP. The amount of effort you put into this board is amazing.
I was excited to roster both Turner and Greene this year but looking at their week 1 matchups temporarily threw on a bit of a wet blanket on my enthusiasm. I'm seriously considering benching them both for Felix and Bradshaw. It's the old "start your studs" versus "play the matchups" routine...gawd I love this hobby.
I was excited to roster both Turner and Greene this year but looking at their week 1 matchups temporarily threw on a bit of a wet blanket on my enthusiasm. I'm seriously considering benching them both for Felix and Bradshaw. It's the old "start your studs" versus "play the matchups" routine...gawd I love this hobby.
BallparkFrank
Footballguy
Fair enough, that's definitely a very possible outcome. I own them both so I'm not really biased one way or the other. At least starting week 1, I think the one thing that's clear is the reported demise of Barber and rise of Felix during the offseason was greatly exaggerated. I'm guessing we'll have a better read on this by MOP's next entry.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Good Job MOP - look forward to this each week
gethugefast1
Footballguy
Thanks also MOP! Always anticipated. Came through again. 
I start 3 RBs (2 RBs & Flex RB).
Leaning towards (in "BOLD" for Week 1)...
Adrian Peterson
DeAngelo Williams
Jahvid Best
Arian Foster
Joseph Addai
Clinton Portis
Wondering why you gave Addai this write up & don't have him in "green"?
Joseph Addai: He had a concussion in week3 of the preseason but he should be cleared to play. Addai has faced Houston 8 times and almost all of them he would have been top10-12 for the week. 104/TD, 108/4Rec, 91/2Tds, 71/TD, 150/2Tds, 110/2Tds…guy racks up points against them. You don't need to think much here. If he is healthy enough to start you play him. It would be hard to imagine you have 2 other better match ups on your rosters.
I start 3 RBs (2 RBs & Flex RB).
Leaning towards (in "BOLD" for Week 1)...
Adrian Peterson
DeAngelo Williams
Jahvid Best
Arian Foster
Joseph Addai
Clinton Portis
Wondering why you gave Addai this write up & don't have him in "green"?
Joseph Addai: He had a concussion in week3 of the preseason but he should be cleared to play. Addai has faced Houston 8 times and almost all of them he would have been top10-12 for the week. 104/TD, 108/4Rec, 91/2Tds, 71/TD, 150/2Tds, 110/2Tds…guy racks up points against them. You don't need to think much here. If he is healthy enough to start you play him. It would be hard to imagine you have 2 other better match ups on your rosters.
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killrobotkill
Footballguy
MOP - I wish you or someone else had the time and inclination to do a similar thread for the other fantasy positions. This is simply awesome. Thanks!
Lord Fantasy
Footballguy
Great job and a great read (as always) but I'm little curious why Chris Johnson isn't listen in green.
massraider
Footballguy
Great stuff, MoP.
I almost stopped reading after the 'compliment' snafu, but then I realized I wasn't an anal-retentive dweeb, and read on. Glad I did.
I almost stopped reading after the 'compliment' snafu, but then I realized I wasn't an anal-retentive dweeb, and read on. Glad I did.
Happy Ragnarok
Footballguy
You're under-thinking this. With all the talk TJ Houshmanzadeh may get a good, long look from the Vikes, Peterson may be flustered wondering how to spell his name on the greeting card for the fruit basket. He probably won't be all there in practice, and could suffer for it on game day. I'd bench him and start Portis. Go with the lineup you currently have, and you're going to give your sister just the edge she needs, and you'll probably be looking up at the cat in the standings.Thanks also MOP! Always anticipated. Came through again.
I start 3 RBs (2 RBs & Flex RB).
Leaning towards (in "BOLD" for Week 1)...
Adrian Peterson
DeAngelo Williams
Jahvid Best
Arian Foster
Joseph Addai
Clinton Portis
zoonation
Footballguy
Don't sell the Vikes short. They went into NO's house for the title game last year and dominated, moving the ball at will. If ever there was an example of a team losing a game, rather than a team winning the game, it was that game.No Rice is a big problem, but I still don't see the Saints running away with this one.It was when I started writing this. It might have moved a little bit. I think anything under 7 I would take the Saints. How is Minnesota going to get it together before week 1? Favre has not looked good at all in the preseason IMO. While NO has still got their SB win on the brains, Brew Brees is the pinnacle of what a professional athlete should do and I can't imagine he will show up unprepared or have his guys unprepared for the season opener. It could get ugly.Great thread each week/season MOP - thanks!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Thanks also MOP! Always anticipated. Came through again.
I start 3 RBs (2 RBs & Flex RB).
Leaning towards (in "BOLD" for Week 1)...
Adrian Peterson
DeAngelo Williams
Jahvid Best
Arian Foster
Joseph Addai
Clinton Portis
Wondering why you gave Addai this write up & don't have him in "green"?
Joseph Addai: He had a concussion in week3 of the preseason but he should be cleared to play. Addai has faced Houston 8 times and almost all of them he would have been top10-12 for the week. 104/TD, 108/4Rec, 91/2Tds, 71/TD, 150/2Tds, 110/2Tds…guy racks up points against them. You don't need to think much here. If he is healthy enough to start you play him. It would be hard to imagine you have 2 other better match ups on your rosters.
Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
My decision between Stewart and addai for my flex just got easier.
A+ will read again.
A+ will read again.
Manster
Footballguy
the Felix/Barber thing has been intriguing this off and pre-season.i've taken MB3 in 2 leagues as he's been cheaper than Felix. i've taken Choice very late as an insurance policy as well.to me, MB is the value here. folks seem to forget he's been a TD machine for most of his career. AND he was banged up most of last year.i see a pretty even split, and Felix will prolly have more yards, but i'm betting on MB getting more TD's.
Need 1 RB spot and one flex (.5PPR):
D. Williams- tough matchup and what you say above, not to mention zero passing threat will keep NYG keying on the run
Best- want to play with my new toy and think DET will jump out to a big lead and run out the clock, but worry about first game jitters and TD threat
R. Bush- not much to add, but something in my gut just doesn't seem right
R. Brown- good matchup, but who gets the TDs?
WRs I could use: Sims-Walker or TO (neither one has an impressive matchup).
I'm leaning towards D Williams and Best (b/c I am a Panther fan and I like my new toy). Bush and the receivers don't excite me. I'll also be starting AP, Jennings 85 and Jacoby Jones. (Its only an 8 team league).
D. Williams- tough matchup and what you say above, not to mention zero passing threat will keep NYG keying on the run
Best- want to play with my new toy and think DET will jump out to a big lead and run out the clock, but worry about first game jitters and TD threat
R. Bush- not much to add, but something in my gut just doesn't seem right
R. Brown- good matchup, but who gets the TDs?
WRs I could use: Sims-Walker or TO (neither one has an impressive matchup).
I'm leaning towards D Williams and Best (b/c I am a Panther fan and I like my new toy). Bush and the receivers don't excite me. I'll also be starting AP, Jennings 85 and Jacoby Jones. (Its only an 8 team league).
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Curado Kev
Footballguy
Praise the FF Gods - MOP is here !! 
Now we know the season is upon us - AWESOME JOB !!!
How you are not a paid staffer is beyond me
Great stuff !! We all appreciate your hard work !!
Thanks Kev
Now we know the season is upon us - AWESOME JOB !!!
How you are not a paid staffer is beyond me
Great stuff !! We all appreciate your hard work !!
Thanks Kev
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Not the past two seasons....9 and 7. I'm not sure what to expect out of this Cowboys RB situation.Im not a fan of Felix...but he is good when used in the correct way. Same with Barber.
Choice is the most complete RB of the 3(reminds me of Pierre Thomas) but he isn't overly great at any one thing to get the PT.
I'm avoiding Dallas RB's this year.
netnalp
Footballguy
I'm going with Best over Bradshaw as my flex this week. O'Hara is expected back for week one, but the line hasn't been very healthy during camp, so they may have trouble as they knock the rust off. Also, I think the Giants continue their rotation of Bradshaw and Jacobs, one plays a series then the other.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I actually like McFadden as a "decent" play. Should be a low scoring game and he'll get plenty of touches baring an injury.
The Pre-season action he saw was right after his return from injury.
The Pre-season action he saw was right after his return from injury.
I noticed nothing about McGahee in the Rice writeup. Do you think he's fallen of the face of the earth or will he still be a TD vulture? For a TD heavy league if they stick anywhere near to the gameplan for last year McGahee at least deserves a mention. This screams to me to be a 14-13 type outcome and McGahee with a vulture TD becomes potentially a bigger play.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
THAT'S NOT WHY WE'RE HERE!!!Need 1 RB spot and one flex (.5PPR). Williams- tough matchup and what you say above, not to mention zero passing threat will keep NYG keying on the runBest- want to play with my new toy and think DET will jump out to a big lead and run out the clock, but worry about first game jitters and TD threatR. Bush- not much to add, but something in my gut just doesn't seem rightR. Brown- good matchup, but who gets the TDs?WRs I could use: Sims-Walker or TO (neither one has an impressive matchup).I'm leaning towards D Williams and Best (b/c I am a Panther fan and I like my new toy). Bush and the receivers don't excite me. I'll also be starting AP, Jennings 85 and Jacoby Jones. (Its only an 8 team league).
Diamond One
Footballguy
Not the past two seasons....9 and 7. I'm not sure what to expect out of this Cowboys RB situation.
Im not a fan of Felix...but he is good when used in the correct way. Same with Barber.
Choice is the most complete RB of the 3(reminds me of Pierre Thomas) but he isn't overly great at any one thing to get the PT.
I'm avoiding Dallas RB's this year.
For what it's worth, from USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/fa...questions_N.htm
•Dallas Cowboys. Between Marion Barber III, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, the Cowboys might have the most talented backfield in the league and the fewest fantasy answers. Virtually nothing has changed in the preseason, so this one still lines up the same: Barber as the starter, Jones as a devastating change-of-pace and Choice ready to sap up any extras or pounce in case of injury. With so many backs, your chances of finding a true steal are slim. If you need to fill a running back hole, target Barber and/or Jones between Rounds 6-8.
Jones and Barber are both great "flex" starts IMHO. It's the other formats that has me on the fence with these two...
MOP, as always, fantastic job!
Im not a fan of Felix...but he is good when used in the correct way. Same with Barber.
Choice is the most complete RB of the 3(reminds me of Pierre Thomas) but he isn't overly great at any one thing to get the PT.
I'm avoiding Dallas RB's this year.
For what it's worth, from USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/fa...questions_N.htm
•Dallas Cowboys. Between Marion Barber III, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, the Cowboys might have the most talented backfield in the league and the fewest fantasy answers. Virtually nothing has changed in the preseason, so this one still lines up the same: Barber as the starter, Jones as a devastating change-of-pace and Choice ready to sap up any extras or pounce in case of injury. With so many backs, your chances of finding a true steal are slim. If you need to fill a running back hole, target Barber and/or Jones between Rounds 6-8.
Jones and Barber are both great "flex" starts IMHO. It's the other formats that has me on the fence with these two...
MOP, as always, fantastic job!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Sounds like you have a lot of choices. If you are that deep with all that talent left to fill one spot I think you are going to do just fine in week 1. Never played in an 8 team league but that has to be like a 200 point minimum in order to win most weeks. Good Luck.Need 1 RB spot and one flex (.5PPR)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Thisw is exactly what I am hoping to see. Information, a link provided, and some analysis or feedback. Great post!Not the past two seasons....9 and 7. I'm not sure what to expect out of this Cowboys RB situation.
Im not a fan of Felix...but he is good when used in the correct way. Same with Barber.
Choice is the most complete RB of the 3(reminds me of Pierre Thomas) but he isn't overly great at any one thing to get the PT.
I'm avoiding Dallas RB's this year.
For what it's worth, from USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/fa...questions_N.htm
•Dallas Cowboys. Between Marion Barber III, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, the Cowboys might have the most talented backfield in the league and the fewest fantasy answers. Virtually nothing has changed in the preseason, so this one still lines up the same: Barber as the starter, Jones as a devastating change-of-pace and Choice ready to sap up any extras or pounce in case of injury. With so many backs, your chances of finding a true steal are slim. If you need to fill a running back hole, target Barber and/or Jones between Rounds 6-8.
Jones and Barber are both great "flex" starts IMHO. It's the other formats that has me on the fence with these two...
MOP, as always, fantastic job!
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Tigerbot Hesh
Footballguy
Great postGreat post MOP. This is my 1st year in the shark pool and on FBGs, and it is analysis like this that makes this site great.
I'm on the fence between Jonathan Stewart and Marion Barber as my RB2 in a standard scoring non-ppr league for week one.
Stewart - I see that you are thinking he won't see many carries this week because he hasn't been practicing or playing this preseason. I see risk with him because of this and the fact that the Giants should be able to stack the box and press the Panthers to beat them through the air. However, the Giants did rank near the bottom third in fantasy PPG allowed to RBs last season (20th), and I would not be surprised to see Stewart get 10 to 15 carries. He did not practice for a majority of last season, and Fox still gave him carries. I also recall reading a piece where Stewart said his achilles feels better than it has in years (can't find the link).
Barber - I agree that he has upside this week against the Skins. This game could be a blowout with the Cowboys controlling the clock with the run game for much of the 2nd half. The red zone carries should be there for him as well. However, the Cowboys preseason O-line performance leaves much to be desired, and I want to take a wait and see approach before starting one of their RBs. The Redskins did rank 10th in fantasy PPG allowed to RBs last season, but I see that you comment on their poor front seven. I have not been following thier defense this offseason. Have they dropped off that badly?
I'm on the fence between Jonathan Stewart and Marion Barber as my RB2 in a standard scoring non-ppr league for week one.
Stewart - I see that you are thinking he won't see many carries this week because he hasn't been practicing or playing this preseason. I see risk with him because of this and the fact that the Giants should be able to stack the box and press the Panthers to beat them through the air. However, the Giants did rank near the bottom third in fantasy PPG allowed to RBs last season (20th), and I would not be surprised to see Stewart get 10 to 15 carries. He did not practice for a majority of last season, and Fox still gave him carries. I also recall reading a piece where Stewart said his achilles feels better than it has in years (can't find the link).
Barber - I agree that he has upside this week against the Skins. This game could be a blowout with the Cowboys controlling the clock with the run game for much of the 2nd half. The red zone carries should be there for him as well. However, the Cowboys preseason O-line performance leaves much to be desired, and I want to take a wait and see approach before starting one of their RBs. The Redskins did rank 10th in fantasy PPG allowed to RBs last season, but I see that you comment on their poor front seven. I have not been following thier defense this offseason. Have they dropped off that badly?
netnalp
Footballguy
I'd play Barber. The Giants defense is much healthier than it was last year. Washington Dline could struggle mightily if Haynesworth continues to go rogue and not play his assignments, like he was accused of by teammates in the last preseason game.
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Brady Gaga
Footballguy
Spiller could have a huge week 1. The Phins young OLBs (Cam Wake and rookie Koa Misi) are having trouble containing the edge and Spiller hits home runs if you let him have the edge. Phins FS Clemmons is also a question mark, Crowder is out or coming off injury and Starks is a DE trying to play NT. Spiller could find plenty of running room.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
1st of all, that's a great way to get people to want to respond to your post. Sure, we are looking for help here but it's done in a way where I bet others have some similar decisions involving both of these players. I would likely put Barber ahead of Stewart for the 1st week. Stewart didn't get a lot of touches in the 1st 4-8 weeks last year, most of his numbers came late in the year.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Excellent points and I echo those thoughts.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Glad these threads are back. This is some of you best work MOP. I really hope Joe brings you on to the staff so we can get even more brilliant insight like this. Keep up the great work!
ratbast
Footballguy
The season has officially started! 
One complaint, because you asked-
I am getting tired of everyone's minimalistic opinion of Ryan Grant. A "plodder", "not explosive" etc etc...all factors contribute to a player's execution and when you combine those factors he ranks higher than most of the league. I would love him on my Patriots and I will start him until someone on my bench gains cumulative factor points!
Please carry on with this great thread...
One complaint, because you asked-
I am getting tired of everyone's minimalistic opinion of Ryan Grant. A "plodder", "not explosive" etc etc...all factors contribute to a player's execution and when you combine those factors he ranks higher than most of the league. I would love him on my Patriots and I will start him until someone on my bench gains cumulative factor points!
Please carry on with this great thread...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I definitely am not a Grant hater but until he he shows a little more explosiveness in an explosive offense which he might this year, I feel I need to be realistic about him and he typically pops in the 15-25 range which is a solid RB2 option for most. He doesn't lose ball games and he rarely wins them. He did finish strong last year and maybe that will continue. Imagine Best on the PackersThe season has officially started!One complaint, because you asked-I am getting tired of everyone's minimalistic opinion of Ryan Grant. A "plodder", "not explosive" etc etc...all factors contribute to a player's execution and when you combine those factors he ranks higher than most of the league. I would love him on my Patriots and I will start him until someone on my bench gains cumulative factor points!Please carry on with this great thread...
