RBs to Exploit and Avoid Week 1 (1 Viewer)

[griff321]

So no talk on Portis for this week in here at all, with MOP more on the bad side of teh fence. I understand Dallas finished 4th in rush yards against, and it was the preseason, but they looked horrid all around this preseason. Foster looked great against them a couple weeks back, but more importantly, there were gaping holes on almost every carry. I think HOU OL > WAS OL, but Im still optimistic Portis will have a nice game this week. He's actually healthy, and I think McNabb will make it more dangerous than any offense Portis has been in since his DEN days. That said, I might just be talking up Portis in my head because Steve Smith (CAR) has me wary of starting him after seeing nothing of him this preseason.

Any Washington homers want to chime in on the run game? Out of all the teams in the league I think that Washington has the worst hometown coverage in the papers.All I've really seen out of Portis coverage is a feel good story, "Portis 'a better teammate'"In Denver I've never been able to stand how Shanahan would ride whoever had the hot hand until one of them made a mistake. I've almost swore off any Shanny RB but I know what he can do for a guy that can separate himself from the pack. As low as Portis was being drafted and the fact that Shanahan has backed him throughout the preseason has me hopeful for a major bounce back season that starts against a Dallas D that hasn't seemed themselves just yet. Wishful thinking?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Love your threads MOP, and it looks like your original post on RBs influenced my draft. Kept Addai and Charles and drafted Harrison (+ Hillis)This week, I intend to roll with Addai (great pre-season and Houston track record) and Harrison (can't believe all the sites have him ranked so low this week). Charles will be on my bench this week while I scope out KCs rb strategy for the year.Any explanation why football guys and so many other sites are hating on Jerome?

FBG is being fair, he's a fringe top20 projection for the week. I see other sites with him in the top20 as well. Shawn Merriman I heard will be out for San Diego, I might roll with Cahrles and Addai but that's just me.

 

[angman]

MOP, great work as always on the writeups.

At the risk of turning this into a WDIS thread, quick question for you. If Beanie is de-activated before game time, would you roll with HIghtower against the Rams instead of Charles against San Diego? PPR league. Thanks in advance.

 

[Kenny Powers]

So no talk on Portis for this week in here at all, with MOP more on the bad side of teh fence. I understand Dallas finished 4th in rush yards against, and it was the preseason, but they looked horrid all around this preseason. Foster looked great against them a couple weeks back, but more importantly, there were gaping holes on almost every carry. I think HOU OL > WAS OL, but Im still optimistic Portis will have a nice game this week. He's actually healthy, and I think McNabb will make it more dangerous than any offense Portis has been in since his DEN days. That said, I might just be talking up Portis in my head because Steve Smith (CAR) has me wary of starting him after seeing nothing of him this preseason.

Any Washington homers want to chime in on the run game? Out of all the teams in the league I think that Washington has the worst hometown coverage in the papers.All I've really seen out of Portis coverage is a feel good story, "Portis 'a better teammate'"

In Denver I've never been able to stand how Shanahan would ride whoever had the hot hand until one of them made a mistake. I've almost swore off any Shanny RB but I know what he can do for a guy that can separate himself from the pack. As low as Portis was being drafted and the fact that Shanahan has backed him throughout the preseason has me hopeful for a major bounce back season that starts against a Dallas D that hasn't seemed themselves just yet. Wishful thinking?

Thats what Im thinking as well, and why I drafted him. Im less sure about the Dallas game this week, but I think he outproduces his ADP of ~RB30 by more than 12

 

[gethugefast1]

Minnesota at New Orleans (-4.5) (48.5)

This is a rematch of the NFC Championship from a year ago where Brett Favre came ever so close to being one of the oldest QBs ever to lead a team to the Super Bowl. If this were 2009 I would see this as being a very close game but in 2010 and with a lot of the flux right now in Minnesota I think this game will be handled quite well by New Orleans who should be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover…instead they likely will feast on the Vikings plus the game is at home.

Adrian Peterson: I can say this in week 1, week5, week 10, I can't think of too many scenarios where he won't be in your line up. The added benefit now that Minnesota is struggling with their receiving corp only makes him a better option with possibly more receptions. New Orleans defense has added some new faces and they will have their work cut out stopping the ground game however I don't believe the passing game will be doing ADP a lot of favors early on in the season.

Here in lies the rub for the Saints and owners of these 2 backs. Who is going to be the one to start? Against Minnesota and a fairly strong front seven I would say that Reggie Bush has the edge because of his receiving skills. He seems better equipped to exploit the Vikings' defense as they can shut down the run and to me that limits Pierre Thomas a little more.

Reggie Bush: I probably roll with him. He was a 5th-6th round pick in most redrafts. While I am sure most owners who grabbed him likely took a RB in the 7th, 8th, and or 9th to compliment Bush, he appears very focused and I wouldn't hesitate to start him in PPR leagues. If you grabbed him for your flex option I think you found the right guy as long as he can stay healthy. I can see him racking up 75+ yards combined and at least a few receptions to pull him into double digit range.

Pierre Thomas: So now we see if those that grabbed him in the 3rd round early 4th paid too much or not. You cannot like this match up in the 1st week as it doesn't really play to Thomas' strengths. He did do a number on the Vikes in the playoffs last year. Pierre can catch balls too but Reggie Bush has a lot more plays designed for him to get the ball out of the backfield (OTB). You hate to sit a guy in week 1 that you might have picked as your RB1 but if you have juicier match ups I might look there. Can Pierre have a good game this week? Of course but what are the percentages? As I have looked at this game a little more though I can see Thomas being asked to drop the hammer and close the game out on the ground.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP, great work as always on the writeups. At the risk of turning this into a WDIS thread, quick question for you. If Beanie is de-activated before game time, would you roll with HIghtower against the Rams instead of Charles against San Diego? PPR league. Thanks in advance.

I'm not going to tell you who to start but Charles racked up in a handful of games what THT has done in a season or two, plus Shawn Merriman to my knowledge is looking pretty iffy for the game, that could have an impact on KC getting their offense going early on.

 

[womb]

I have a question for all of you. Did I jump the gun greenlighting Jerome Harrison? I ask because a couple of folks have approached me about it and also a couple of posts were centered around him. I think he has a good match up but maybe I am overlooking Hillis too quickly. DO we see more of a split between the 2 of them?

Second thing I wanted to discuss was McFadden. I also dismissed him quickly and he is going to get a shot to be the lead RB this week.

Or do we think Harrison and McFadden simply should not be the lead RB on most redraft teams? Dynasty could be a lot different.

I see that there is such a disrespect to McFadden here that none cared to post about that. How abot you, did you change your mind about him and week 1?

 

[Liquid Tension]

While it is always easy to sit back and criticize, I do need to point out your analysis of the Jet Baltimore game is way off base.

You wrote that both teams sport a good defense and a decent offense. No, Baltimore's defense has not been very good of late and the Jet defense should be great. the Baltimore offense could be extremely good, while the Jet offense is probably weak (a lot depends on Sanchez). Your comments made the teams seem similar and I see baltimor as an offensive team and the Jets as a defensive team. This is not the old Ravens defenses IMO.

I just had to clarify those comments as they were not accurate

 

[Angus82]

While it is always easy to sit back and criticize, I do need to point out your analysis of the Jet Baltimore game is way off base.You wrote that both teams sport a good defense and a decent offense. No, Baltimore's defense has not been very good of late and the Jet defense should be great. the Baltimore offense could be extremely good, while the Jet offense is probably weak (a lot depends on Sanchez). Your comments made the teams seem similar and I see baltimor as an offensive team and the Jets as a defensive team. This is not the old Ravens defenses IMO. I just had to clarify those comments as they were not accurate

Of course we all have different opinions and I will state mine. I think that B-mores D doesn't have to be as stifling as it used to be because they actually have a balanced offense that allows them to stay off of the field. As far as the Jets, are you really telling me that a team that made the divisional play-offs with a rookie QB lack offense? This should be a fun game and could be an AFC championship preview.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

While it is always easy to sit back and criticize, I do need to point out your analysis of the Jet Baltimore game is way off base.You wrote that both teams sport a good defense and a decent offense. No, Baltimore's defense has not been very good of late and the Jet defense should be great. the Baltimore offense could be extremely good, while the Jet offense is probably weak (a lot depends on Sanchez). Your comments made the teams seem similar and I see baltimor as an offensive team and the Jets as a defensive team. This is not the old Ravens defenses IMO. I just had to clarify those comments as they were not accurate

Hi LT,You are welcome to your opinion as am I. The front 7 for Baltimore...name 5 better front 7s running the 3-4 in the NFL right now. Their DL with Ngata and Gregg clogging things up, Ray Lewis in the middle, Suggs tearing things apart on the outside, I rather like them especially against Sanchez. Should be a fun game. Did that passage just kill the whole reading for you? Were there any other games you wanted to weigh in on? Thanks for your feedback.

 

[G-King]

One match up that I have seen no discussion on is about the Denver running game. I think everyone is taking a wait and see approach to Morenowith his health/split time, but what if he is deactivated right before game time? If so, then in a PPR league I believe C-Buck becomes a must start. Especially over someone like the Charles/ TJ fiasco or even possibly Addai in a Peyton pass first game. Anyone with an opinion on the Denver situation?

 

[Angus82]

One match up that I have seen no discussion on is about the Denver running game. I think everyone is taking a wait and see approach to Morenowith his health/split time, but what if he is deactivated right before game time? If so, then in a PPR league I believe C-Buck becomes a must start. Especially over someone like the Charles/ TJ fiasco or even possibly Addai in a Peyton pass first game. Anyone with an opinion on the Denver situation?

This is just my opinion, but Denver and NE are the same. I would love to say that Moreno or Maroney are the guy. No one knows.

 

[Sidewinder16]

So no talk on Portis for this week in here at all, with MOP more on the bad side of teh fence. I understand Dallas finished 4th in rush yards against, and it was the preseason, but they looked horrid all around this preseason. Foster looked great against them a couple weeks back, but more importantly, there were gaping holes on almost every carry. I think HOU OL > WAS OL, but Im still optimistic Portis will have a nice game this week. He's actually healthy, and I think McNabb will make it more dangerous than any offense Portis has been in since his DEN days. That said, I might just be talking up Portis in my head because Steve Smith (CAR) has me wary of starting him after seeing nothing of him this preseason.

Any Washington homers want to chime in on the run game? Out of all the teams in the league I think that Washington has the worst hometown coverage in the papers.All I've really seen out of Portis coverage is a feel good story, "Portis 'a better teammate'"In Denver I've never been able to stand how Shanahan would ride whoever had the hot hand until one of them made a mistake. I've almost swore off any Shanny RB but I know what he can do for a guy that can separate himself from the pack. As low as Portis was being drafted and the fact that Shanahan has backed him throughout the preseason has me hopeful for a major bounce back season that starts against a Dallas D that hasn't seemed themselves just yet. Wishful thinking?

Unfortunately (of fortunately; I guess it depends on how you look at it), most of the recent hometown press coverage has centered around the Haynesworth soap opera.The simple, yet completely unhelpful, answer is that there is a lot of "new" on this offense. New head coach, new OC (both of which means a new playbook and new play calling), new QB, 3 new OL starters, new WR, new backup RBs, etc. The 'Skins were very vanilla in the preseason (as most teams are) and Shanahan is very tight-lipped with anything that can remotely be construed as game strategy (he chastised reporters at a PC earlier this week for writing about which players were running with 1st team, 2nd team, etc. during practices). So, training camp and preseason games have been pretty useless for trying to predict what this offense is going to look like, or be able to accomplish in a real game.As a fan, I'm cautiously optimistic that this offense can "work" at some point this season. But with all the new-ness, I'm far from convinced that much will come together this week. Over the course of the season, I think Portis will outperform his ADP, by a good margin. I'd be real nervous starting him this week, though, depending on my other options.

 

[G-King]

One match up that I have seen no discussion on is about the Denver running game. I think everyone is taking a wait and see approach to Morenowith his health/split time, but what if he is deactivated right before game time? If so, then in a PPR league I believe C-Buck becomes a must start. Especially over someone like the Charles/ TJ fiasco or even possibly Addai in a Peyton pass first game. Anyone with an opinion on the Denver situation?

This is just my opinion, but Denver and NE are the same. I would love to say that Moreno or Maroney are the guy. No one knows.

Thats why I said this....

 

[Angus82]

One match up that I have seen no discussion on is about the Denver running game. I think everyone is taking a wait and see approach to Morenowith his health/split time, but what if he is deactivated right before game time? If so, then in a PPR league I believe C-Buck becomes a must start. Especially over someone like the Charles/ TJ fiasco or even possibly Addai in a Peyton pass first game. Anyone with an opinion on the Denver situation?

This is just my opinion, but Denver and NE are the same. I would love to say that Moreno or Maroney are the guy. No one knows.

Thats why I said this....

Props where props are due.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Just running down the games with a few updates here and there...

Any of the top4 preseason backs, there really is no reason to overthink a start there. Ray Rice probably has the toughest game although I am interested to see the new and imrpoved Oakland defense, still Rice with receptions should easily hit double digits.

Rookie RBs...Spiller is starting and again the Miami defense is young and inexperienced, he makes at least a good flex option and also a solid RB2 option today. Best should get a lot of touches but I am starting to believe that Chicago will be ready for him. Ryan Mathews should post the best score of these 3 in his MNF match up with the Chiefs.

RBs with reall opp today...Tim Hightower as we have discussed all week has had success in 2008 and 2009 @St Louis, today he will likely start and see the bulk of the work. On paper it looks like a great match up for him even though he is not a top tier RB by any stretch. Jerome Harrison also has a nice match up on the road and despite Hillis getting some of the load he should still have a good start to 2010 this week.

RBs that we need to see more of 1st...Bradshaw has a great preseason and I know he is on many starting rosters today but don't be surprised if there still is some type of split or Jacobs comes loafing out inside the 5 yd line. I like Bradshaw and his talent but he doesn't always play within himself and when he gets too amped up he tends to get injured. In Denvr, Knowshon has been practiving the past couple days and I believe he will be in the line up today. I want to get on board with this guy and had him in my top10 in the Spring but things have been going south for him since entering the NFL, anxious to see what he can do.

The Dallas RBs...abandon ship tonight with both Columbo and Kyle Kosier out for their OL and now Haynesworth is going to actually play inside as well, not liking this as much as I was a week or two ago. Barber and Jones are total rolls of the dice this week and I probably would red light both of them and look at other options.

Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Cedric Benson, DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Joseph Addai, Arian Foster, Ryan Grant...all those guys should be in your starting line up no ifs ands or butts about it. There are a couple of guys in here I am a tad leery of but logic points to all these guys being leaned on heavily today.

Michael Turner and Rashard Mendenhall are going to be asked to run the ball alot but I fear both of these guys are going to be bottled up today. Still when talking about 15-20 touches minimum you gotta like those odds. Hopefully both of them can knock in a short TD along the way and that should help out owners.

LeSean McCoy is one of the hardest guys to gauge on the board this week but I have to believe he will rack up 60-80 yds and 3-4 receptions in this offense which in PPR makes a nice RB2 option with a little upside. GB-PHI should be fireworks...so was NO-MN I guess too.

I'm still not on board the Shonn Greene train this week.

Don't overlook Charles against San Diego which is still going ot be finding themselves defensively. That should be a high scoring game and CHarles could end up being the RB1 in the MNF finale of the week. It's a gamble but so is everything.

I still am not on board the Darren McFadden train this week.

How many touches will Huggins have in week 1?

With Maroney out is Fred Taylor a viable option? Hopefully you don't need to find out this early in the season. Same for the Forsett/Washington duo in Seattle.

Portis is tough to gauge this week too, but he should see a significant amount of touches tonight. 15+ carries.

Good Luck everyone

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I got a PM already about Mendy asking if I am going back on my original red light evaluation of him. I'm not but I understand why owners will start him today. I hope Mendy proves me wrong, I never root for or against guys to make my analysis right, that only leads to bias opinions in the coming weeks. I hope I see this guy really take Pittsburgh on his back but with Dixon under center the game plan for Atlanta has to be shut down the run. Mike Smith is a defensive minded coach and I assume the game plan will be just that. The wildcard will be Dixon and Mike Wallace, if they can hook up a couple times that will loosen up the running lanes and help out an already suspect Pitt OL.

 

[Jimboozie]

Great thread MOP

 

[KingPrawn]

Just running down the games with a few updates here and there...

Any of the top4 preseason backs, there really is no reason to overthink a start there. Ray Rice probably has the toughest game although I am interested to see the new and imrpoved Oakland defense, still Rice with receptions should easily hit double digits.

Rookie RBs...Spiller is starting and again the Miami defense is young and inexperienced, he makes at least a good flex option and also a solid RB2 option today. Best should get a lot of touches but I am starting to believe that Chicago will be ready for him. Ryan Mathews should post the best score of these 3 in his MNF match up with the Chiefs.

RBs with reall opp today...Tim Hightower as we have discussed all week has had success in 2008 and 2009 @St Louis, today he will likely start and see the bulk of the work. On paper it looks like a great match up for him even though he is not a top tier RB by any stretch. Jerome Harrison also has a nice match up on the road and despite Hillis getting some of the load he should still have a good start to 2010 this week.

RBs that we need to see more of 1st...Bradshaw has a great preseason and I know he is on many starting rosters today but don't be surprised if there still is some type of split or Jacobs comes loafing out inside the 5 yd line. I like Bradshaw and his talent but he doesn't always play within himself and when he gets too amped up he tends to get injured. In Denvr, Knowshon has been practiving the past couple days and I believe he will be in the line up today. I want to get on board with this guy and had him in my top10 in the Spring but things have been going south for him since entering the NFL, anxious to see what he can do.

The Dallas RBs...abandon ship tonight with both Columbo and Kyle Kosier out for their OL and now Haynesworth is going to actually play inside as well, not liking this as much as I was a week or two ago. Barber and Jones are total rolls of the dice this week and I probably would red light both of them and look at other options.

Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Cedric Benson, DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Joseph Addai, Arian Foster, Ryan Grant...all those guys should be in your starting line up no ifs ands or butts about it. There are a couple of guys in here I am a tad leery of but logic points to all these guys being leaned on heavily today.

Michael Turner and Rashard Mendenhall are going to be asked to run the ball alot but I fear both of these guys are going to be bottled up today. Still when talking about 15-20 touches minimum you gotta like those odds. Hopefully both of them can knock in a short TD along the way and that should help out owners.

LeSean McCoy is one of the hardest guys to gauge on the board this week but I have to believe he will rack up 60-80 yds and 3-4 receptions in this offense which in PPR makes a nice RB2 option with a little upside. GB-PHI should be fireworks...so was NO-MN I guess too.

I'm still not on board the Shonn Greene train this week.

Don't overlook Charles against San Diego which is still going ot be finding themselves defensively. That should be a high scoring game and CHarles could end up being the RB1 in the MNF finale of the week. It's a gamble but so is everything.

I still am not on board the Darren McFadden train this week.

How many touches will Huggins have in week 1?

With Maroney out is Fred Taylor a viable option? Hopefully you don't need to find out this early in the season. Same for the Forsett/Washington duo in Seattle.

Portis is tough to gauge this week too, but he should see a significant amount of touches tonight. 15+ carries.

Good Luck everyone

Just when I thought I had it figured out. Do I start Forte over Best? Hmmmmm . . .

 

[Instinctive]

Looks like Hillis the choice over Harrison thus far...

 

[Hooper31]

Just an FYI with regard to the Seattle defense. Its completely understandable that you don't know who is playing on the defensive line for Seattle. They get virtually no nationwide press, and I can't say they deserve it. However, The problem they have on defense will be lack of pass rush. They will likely get torched through the air. This said, they should able to stop the run just fine. They moved DT Red Bryant to DE, and he's a substantial addition to their run defense. Also, as long as LB Lofa Tatupu stays healthy will be play solid team defense. His presence in the middle of the defense is important to the entire unit.

You were warned. Seahawk defense had quite a showing today. They will continue to shut down the run, but they are going to be exploitable when they face a QB not named Alex Smith.

 

[Gr00vus]

Michael Turner: Here are some of Turner's road games on grass or natural surfaces away from the comfy confines of the dome he usually runs in…2008 @TB 14/42, @Car 18/56, @GB 26/120/TD(nice), @Phi 17/58(not sure what they play on), @Oak 30/139, @SD 30/120…in 2009 @NE 15/56/TD, @SF 22/97/3Tds…he is a mix of good and some bad on the road. I do know that Big Ben does not play on the defense and that Pittsburgh will be amped up to try and shut these guys down especially Turner. Almost all of Turner's games on the road east of the Mississippi have been downright avg to putrid. His road games in California look nice but remember he played in San Diego for a few years and probably is comfortable out there and familiar with things. I hate to rain on the Michael Turner parade but I would put the % chance of 100 yds and a TD for him at under 40-50%. Owners don't want to hear it but if he does well it would not be the norm for him. Perhaps the Steelers will realize how much they are going to stink it up on offense and quit on defense at the end of the game but I doubt it.

Good call with this. Hope you're as right about the Chargers winning tonight.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Michael Turner: Here are some of Turner's road games on grass or natural surfaces away from the comfy confines of the dome he usually runs in…2008 @TB 14/42, @Car 18/56, @GB 26/120/TD(nice), @Phi 17/58(not sure what they play on), @Oak 30/139, @SD 30/120…in 2009 @NE 15/56/TD, @SF 22/97/3Tds…he is a mix of good and some bad on the road. I do know that Big Ben does not play on the defense and that Pittsburgh will be amped up to try and shut these guys down especially Turner. Almost all of Turner's games on the road east of the Mississippi have been downright avg to putrid. His road games in California look nice but remember he played in San Diego for a few years and probably is comfortable out there and familiar with things. I hate to rain on the Michael Turner parade but I would put the % chance of 100 yds and a TD for him at under 40-50%. Owners don't want to hear it but if he does well it would not be the norm for him. Perhaps the Steelers will realize how much they are going to stink it up on offense and quit on defense at the end of the game but I doubt it.

Good call with this. Hope you're as right about the Chargers winning tonight.

Rivers is a man amongst boys, he is the real All Pro on the field tonight and he should be able to have his way. I'm eager t see what he does without Jackson to throw the ball to. Anxious to see Ryan Mathews in primetime, but this game is loaded with guys on both sides I want to watch. Both games tonight are must see TV. 1st we have a 12 round heavywieght slugfest and then a nice middle weight let the gloves fly affair later on, should be exciting.

How do you think San Diego will do tonight on the road?

 

[Gr00vus]

How do you think San Diego will do tonight on the road?

I don't know that much about the Chiefs, so I'm not comfortable making absolute statements. I have no idea what the Charger D will do, so I'll guess the Chargers will win but it won't be a blow out as, even if all other things are equal, the Chargers have a big advantage at QB. It should be a very interesting game, and as a Charger fan I'm a bit nervous about seeing what this team looks like now that the real season is here.Getting a bit back on topic with this thread, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Tolbert get a bit more play than people are expecting.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

Notwithstanding Isaac Redman's promotion to "short yardage back" I will take:

Rashard Mendenhall and Shonn Greene

over

Ryan Matthews and Cedric Benson

in Week 1.

Matthews vs the Chiefs and Benson against a NE defense that has lost a couple DLinemen in the last few weeks...I'd rethink that. Mendy and Greene have far tougher matches and don't have the passing game behind them to make it any easier. Ngata, Gregg, and Cody on the DLine for Baltimore with Ray Lewis running wild...fun fun fun for Greene owners week 1.

Hmmm. Looks like I was wrong on Greene and you were wrong on Mendenhall, Matthews and Benson.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Notwithstanding Isaac Redman's promotion to "short yardage back" I will take:

Rashard Mendenhall and Shonn Greene

over

Ryan Matthews and Cedric Benson

in Week 1.

Matthews vs the Chiefs and Benson against a NE defense that has lost a couple DLinemen in the last few weeks...I'd rethink that. Mendy and Greene have far tougher matches and don't have the passing game behind them to make it any easier. Ngata, Gregg, and Cody on the DLine for Baltimore with Ray Lewis running wild...fun fun fun for Greene owners week 1.

Hmmm. Looks like I was wrong on Greene and you were wrong on Mendenhall, Matthews and Benson.

Mendy got a 50 yd TD run in OT, in the fine print I only project out thru 60 minutes. All bets are off in OT I nailed a few, got a few wrong, that's how it works.