RBs, WRs, QBs, to Exploit or Avoid: Week 1 (1 Viewer)

[Spike]

In regard to the Ari/NE game this coming Sunday, I would suggest putting the brakes on the Ari WRs.  The Pats D has looked REALLY good.  Not saying the Cardinals won't win, just that I don't see their WRs (multiple ones, at that) going off this week.

 

[JoeSteeler]

.

 

[yoman]

2 of the yes 4 AZ WRs will have quality games...which 2 of them? I'll let you all discuss this but I still think target distribution is a little jumbled right now. I wouldn't hesitate to start Floyd, Fitz, or Brown, I'm simply saying that it's likely 1 of them flops Week 1 while the other two profit. 

Interesting take.  I am a bit worried about Brown and the concussions/headaches and don't know if they are going to limit his snaps because of this.  

 

[the rover]

The issue with Rawls isn't that he isn't 100%.  Every indication is that he is.  It's that he didn't get a lot of reps, barely played in the preseason, and Michael looked sharp.  They'll both play and the hot hand will get the ball.

 

[DocHolliday]

Awesome thread.  While I think the AZ and NE is close for a half, I think AZ wins by 10.  Even without Brown, that AZ offense is really good and balanced.  NE is not even close to 100% on O right now. 

 

[Waingro]

Great stuff, MoP. 

 

[ImTheScientist]

@ImTheScientist Thoughts on Seattle offense and the inexperience at DB for Miami plus Maxwell returning to Seattle? 

I fell confident Wilson is going to produce top 5 this week, will any of the WRs sneak into the top 10? top 20?

Historically the Hawks have started slow in both games and the regular season. Doug Baldwin would be the only WR that may sneak into the top 20. Based on pre-season hype people will probably have Lockett in their lineup only to be disappointed. I love Lockett but unless he scores a TD he won't have the opportunity needed to get into the top 20. Despite Pete listing Cmike as the starter I think Rawls will get ~15 carries and Cmike gets ~8. My guess is that listing Cmike as the starter was more a reward for his hard work than any sort of implication of actual playing time. Pete loves his "always compete" mantra. I was once a Cmike fanatic but the truth is while Cmike is more physically talented Rawls run style is more what the Seahawks want and his vision/instincts are far better than Cmike. I know the media has gone wild about Cmike being listed as the starter and part of me thinks they either don't follow the team or they enjoy clicks knowing fantasy nerds all over the world have been drooling over Cmike for years. 

Maxwell is a system DB. Unfortunately I don't know enough about how Miami asks their DBs to play. Outside of Seattle's system and supporting cast he has been questionable at best. The Dolphins Dline worries me, but the Hawks interior line has been a strength this preseason. The hawks LT is their weakness and they rely on Russ to make people miss and extend the play. 

I think the spread is currently at 10.5 points.....I think the game is close with maybe the hawks winning by 10. It will be a super sloppy first half with tons of 3 & outs on both sides with the hawks pulling away in the second half. Maybe a late TD by the hawks make the score look like it was more of a dominating performance than it really will be. If the hawks have a weakness on D its defending the TE but Cameron sucks. The next weakness would be short underneath passes. They will give that to teams all day. Actually makes me feel like Foster will have a decent day receiving and Landry will feast underneath. 

I would probably feel better saying Wilson finishes in the 5-10 range this week. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The issue with Rawls isn't that he isn't 100%.  Every indication is that he is.  It's that he didn't get a lot of reps, barely played in the preseason, and Michael looked sharp.  They'll both play and the hot hand will get the ball.

Just from my past experience that usually means the team feels very comfortable with Rawls and didn't want to expose him to injury where if Michael were to go down in any of those preseason games, doesn't set the team back as much form their plans. 

Maybe Rawls is a solid play Week 1, you folks are pulling and pushing me in all directions here. 

Good to see you Rover

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks.

No, those are redraft WRs. I. Don't. Know. What. I. Was. Thinking. Yes I was sober. I digress...

This needs further explanation. 32 team league? 

The Bears really upgraded their LBers and pass rush compared to last season I think. I haven't really watched their defense in PS though so maybe it just looks better on paper? Houston is a guy that needs to be accounted for with additional help. If they can bookend him then there isn't enough help to give unless you reduce things down to 3 passing options. 

They still haven't fixed their secondary though.

Houston may use more quick/short passes if the pass rush is as good as I think it can be, I would assume you start Hopkins no matter what and he should do well. Fuller is more of a deep threat, so he might not be very involved in the game plan. It might be like that all season too, where you only feel good about starting him against defenses with weak pass rush, which allows for some less risky deep shots. While Fuller could be used in other ways, they have other players better suited for those roles, so you are going to be asking yourself this question every week unless/until Fuller shows he is ready and going to be involved in more ways than as a deep threat.

I would lean towards Funchess in theory because the HC has already stated that Benjamin will only play 30 to 35 snaps of the game. The problem here is they play Denver, so it is a bad match up for the receivers outside.

The Saints play the Raiders who have also greatly improved their defense. Some of their upgrades are to their secondary in particular their safeties which does not make rookie Michael Thomas an attractive match up. As Snead is starting ahead of him, it isn't clear to me how many snaps Thomas will be on the field, he is a rookie and he may be drawing some quality coverage causing Brees to use better match ups.

This is quite a pickle you have put yourself in.

 

[angman]

Thanks as always for doing this MOP.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thanks as always for doing this MOP.

Thanks for reading, without you all I got nothing. 

 

[Futz]

Detroit at Indianapolis -4 (50)

Looks like Golden Tate lines up wide left, Boldin will go wide right and be a 10 yard in and out guy, his best days are behind him and he offers little speed, again hands are his key now and I think he will be fine in this offense but he isn’t stretching the field. Marvin Jones will be the slot guy and I think he will find success there, just how much and how fast it happens is a mystery right now.

Thanks for the write ups. I've followed them over the years and I too have done them on other sites and it's a difficult and tedious task for whoever takes the time. Well done.

I'm curious as to what lead you to say the bolded. Preseason film? Marvin Jones is a natural X receiver and certainly doesn't possess the route running or lateral quickness to pull that off IMO. I'm a Lion's homer and have not read this or witnessed it so it would be an interesting development if true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRIGGnpBA4Q

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Historically the Hawks have started slow in both games and the regular season. Doug Baldwin would be the only WR that may sneak into the top 20. Based on pre-season hype people will probably have Lockett in their lineup only to be disappointed. I love Lockett but unless he scores a TD he won't have the opportunity needed to get into the top 20. Despite Pete listing Cmike as the starter I think Rawls will get ~15 carries and Cmike gets ~8. My guess is that listing Cmike as the starter was more a reward for his hard work than any sort of implication of actual playing time. Pete loves his "always compete" mantra. I was once a Cmike fanatic but the truth is while Cmike is more physically talented Rawls run style is more what the Seahawks want and his vision/instincts are far better than Cmike. I know the media has gone wild about Cmike being listed as the starter and part of me thinks they either don't follow the team or they enjoy clicks knowing fantasy nerds all over the world have been drooling over Cmike for years. 

Maxwell is a system DB. Unfortunately I don't know enough about how Miami asks their DBs to play. Outside of Seattle's system and supporting cast he has been questionable at best. The Dolphins Dline worries me, but the Hawks interior line has been a strength this preseason. The hawks LT is their weakness and they rely on Russ to make people miss and extend the play. 

I think the spread is currently at 10.5 points.....I think the game is close with maybe the hawks winning by 10. It will be a super sloppy first half with tons of 3 & outs on both sides with the hawks pulling away in the second half. Maybe a late TD by the hawks make the score look like it was more of a dominating performance than it really will be. If the hawks have a weakness on D its defending the TE but Cameron sucks. The next weakness would be short underneath passes. They will give that to teams all day. Actually makes me feel like Foster will have a decent day receiving and Landry will feast underneath. 

I would probably feel better saying Wilson finishes in the 5-10 range this week. 

Interesting write-up and thoughts, thanks! 

In terms of bolded, I think it's going to be a coin flip either way between Baldwin and Lockett in terms of WK 1 production. While Baldwin was certainly targeted more (6.4 Tg/gm to Lockett's 4.3) last year, Lockett was way more efficient with his production. I think the team is more comfortable knowing what they have in Lockett coming into his second year, and will involve him and his dynamic ability more. Baldwin (and Kearse, for that matter) are still relevant, but can't see Baldwin maintaining his target pace, with some of those syphoning off to Lockett this year.

In game 1, with players still slightly getting into form, agree there will be sloppy play -- to me, that makes Lockett even more of a threat if he can take advantage of poor coverage.

Not saying you are wrong, just that I think there is as much chance for Lockett to be the guy in WK 1 than Baldwin.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Rodeojones In the House!!!

 

[need2know]

Interesting write-up and thoughts, thanks! 

In terms of bolded, I think it's going to be a coin flip either way between Baldwin and Lockett in terms of WK 1 production. While Baldwin was certainly targeted more (6.4 Tg/gm to Lockett's 4.3) last year, Lockett was way more efficient with his production. I think the team is more comfortable knowing what they have in Lockett coming into his second year, and will involve him and his dynamic ability more. Baldwin (and Kearse, for that matter) are still relevant, but can't see Baldwin maintaining his target pace, with some of those syphoning off to Lockett this year.

In game 1, with players still slightly getting into form, agree there will be sloppy play -- to me, that makes Lockett even more of a threat if he can take advantage of poor coverage.

Not saying you are wrong, just that I think there is as much chance for Lockett to be the guy in WK 1 than Baldwin.

I agree.  We get rtn stats in my league as well and lockett almost always seems to make big plays somehow.  His targets should increase a bit.  Doesn't mean they will but it's likely 

 

[Shutout]

My short thoughts:

I think the world will be put on notice and the Cardinals might embarrass the Patriots on SNF.  That moment so many Patriots haters have been waiting...and waiting..and waiting for will almost be here, cheapened to them only because Tom Brady won't be at the helm to take some of the lumps.

I think when the season runs its course, a lot of people will be very bitter over their expectations for 'Nuk Hopkins and L. Miller.  I openly confess this is a "gut" thought but I think 'Nuk just happened to have a lot align for him last year that won't be sustainable in the design of where the Texans want to go as a team.  Miller, unfortunately, I just don't see being able to live up to the expectations. Again, just that gut feeling on that.  

I think a year from now, a guy like D. Funchess will be thought of in that group of the next big young ascending talents. I don't expect a crazy successful year but I think he will show us a lot of progression. 

I'm reversing course on my first knee-jerk reaction to the Dez Bryant prospects. I now think he might end up with a very solid (not top 5 elite) year where when all is said and done, he's a top 8 WR with a big game here or there.  What entices me the most about him is he is the type of player who is in the perfect position where he could be "ok" to above average most the year and then light it up down the stretch if Romo returns and Dallas has something to play for. In short, the type of players that pop up every year that are FF difference makers down the stretch.

I think Jamaal Charles will give owners much more value than what is generally being tossed out right now. Its going to take patience but those who let him get away cheap will pay the price for it.  

Happy football season everyone!

 

[UncleZen]

I always enjoy reading this thread, even when I think MOP is off his rocker. It's the discussion that I love. I rarely ever listen to anyone on a WDIS because in the end, I always make up my own mind. This is why I play the game. Sometimes, you win, sometimes you suck.

All that being said, I am struggling right now on a RB decision. I am torn between Langford and Ware. Langford was money for me last year when he started and has looked good in preseason. Ware is all the rage right now and does have a better matchup. I am just curious as to thoughts on these 2.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

beats the hell outa any of those god awful political threads ...thank you

 

[gabes1919]

You guys keep talking about the Pats finally getting embarrassed like they didn't get absolutely get their bells rung in the conference championship last year. We look back on the score and see that the score was close but I remember watching that game and thinking "there is a snowball's chance in hell the Pats pull this one out". Brady was a man hunted that game, he maybe had a second and half to get the ball out of his hands

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I had a late draft tonight close to the season, doesn't need it's own thread, feel free to post up a recent draft you owned. Just a little 10 team'r that I have played in for 20 years, mostly same owners, almost never goes like we assume on/after draft night.

3 man keeper-but of course yours truly has almost nothing to show for that except for Carlos Hyde so I was behind the 8 ball a bit.  2RB/3WR/TE/Flex...

1.08-RB David Johnson...not the guy I really wanted but I kind of had to take him at this point. All of the top 6 WRs were gone except DeAndre Hopkins. I never thought I would take him over Hopkins but you have to adjust and someone had already taken Allen Robinson at #7...It was either Hopkins or DJ, seems odd I went DJ. I'm still asking why. 

2.03 RB Ez E...if you paid attention to just 1 post I made in the preseason it was "I'm all in" and I still allowed him to slide by me in the 1st where I was going to take him originally. Romo/Prescott doesn't matter to me. Not many folks get him as their RB2, I wanted to make a splash. 

Just FYI...the WRs in this league, like 10-12 of the top 25-30 are GONE thru keepers so I was taking a risk with RB early but felt I could find my way...

And I proceeded to watch and cry as flashy WR after flashy WR was taken...Amari Cooper? Mike Evans? Marshall/Allen? so it gets down to where I am looking at maybe Eric Decker area as my WR1 which isn't good as much as I might like the guy. 

3.08 WR Randal Cobb...I'm not thrilled this was my WR1 and I will hammer away at WR for a while until I am happy. 

4.03 WR Golden Tate...I just needed some WR bodies and there is a pretty large pool of guys in Tate's range, I also liked many other WRs, most I didn't think I would get later but as luck would have it...

5.08 WR Donte Moncrief...Cobb/Tate/Moncrief is no world beater at WR but considering some owners already had stables of guys like AJ Green/TY Hilton and Landry/Watkins and Nelson/Cooks...my options at WR were limited before the draft started so perhaps I messed up by not grabbing slightly higher level WRs...I could have gone Evans/Cooper on the 1-2 and then maybe tried for RBs in these rounds but I tell you that owners were picking guys like Latvius Murray a pick or two after I locked up my RBs so I was pretty happy all things considered. I just tried to grab 2-3 WRs that I felt I could live with in PPR. 

6.03(Keeper Pick) WR Josh Gordon...he fits on my team well and I think when he returns I have a much stronger blade at WR with Gordon/Cobb/Tate as my 1-2-3 after week 4. I wasn't done at WR, still felt like I needed another who was about on the level on the guys I drafted and look what falls in the 7th...

7.08 WR Michael Floyd...too much value. I went 5 WRs after securing 2 RBs

So my team has 5 WRs and 3 RBs with no QBs or TEs after 7 rounds, some owners already had 9 or 10 players at this point in the draft so I was way behind at QB and TE but I felt like I might have made up a little ground for not having much at keeper. 

8.03 QB Carson Palmer...11th QB off the board? 6 pts TD. This league, guys will take their QB2 before you take QB1, we onlly roster 20 QBs, I could almost wait for the other 9 owners to each take 2 QBs if I wanted...could have had Russel Wilson in the 4th instead of Golden Tate, might regret that. 

9.08 TE Gary Barnidge...TE10/11/12...he was somewhere in that range and the drop off was coming, I was surprised after I waited that long. I hope he can produce because I gambled at my other TE spot. 

10.03 RB Spencer Ware...love him Week 1 in my flex, figure it out from there. Maybe send him to the Charles owner...I got laughed at for this pick tonight. 

11.08 QB Matt Stafford...paired with Palmer, should be about 8,000-9,000 yards and 60-65 TDs perhaps between the two of them. Shouldn't have a lot of bad match up issues. I wanted Bortles, Carr, others but they got scooped and I was left picking what was left...

12.03 TE Tyler Eifert...he might miss 6 weeks so this is a big gamble but when healthy he looks like the real deal and they are going to need him mightily if they want to compete down the stretch. I have Eifert and Gordon in the cuts to help add more pop after the 1st month and I don't plan on starting 0-3/0-4, I think I can compete right away and those selections will make me stronger later in the season. 

13.08/14.03 Pats and Vikes Defenses...

15.08 WR6 Tajae Sharpe...they chuckled

17.08 RB5 DeAndre Washington...they chuckled some more

18.03 RB6 Jordan Howard...I was asked who this was and then got more chuckles when I said he plays for Chicago. 

I like my team, I picked it so I better like it but I felt like everything came together tonight. I felt like I made up some ground for owners with better keepers, I waited on QB and TE, I was able to stick to the plan and scoop up value in a couple rounds. People ask what my teams look like...there's my team.

I wanted Alfred Morris to back up EE but it didn't work out that way, I probably should have grabbed him over any of the defenses...but I was well into my 2nd growler at that point. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I always enjoy reading this thread, even when I think MOP is off his rocker. It's the discussion that I love. I rarely ever listen to anyone on a WDIS because in the end, I always make up my own mind. This is why I play the game. Sometimes, you win, sometimes you suck.

All that being said, I am struggling right now on a RB decision. I am torn between Langford and Ware. Langford was money for me last year when he started and has looked good in preseason. Ware is all the rage right now and does have a better matchup. I am just curious as to thoughts on these 2.

I drafted Ware in the 10th round tonight for one reason, start Week 1 and then go from there. He has a potential top 5-10 week this week. If he lights it up I think they have to give him more touches, even a 60/40 split with Charles is about 15 touches a game...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thanks for the write ups. I've followed them over the years and I too have done them on other sites and it's a difficult and tedious task for whoever takes the time. Well done.

I'm curious as to what lead you to say the bolded. Preseason film? Marvin Jones is a natural X receiver and certainly doesn't possess the route running or lateral quickness to pull that off IMO. I'm a Lion's homer and have not read this or witnessed it so it would be an interesting development if true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRIGGnpBA4Q

I based on what I was reading on depth charts, ourlads has him in the slot but I could be wrong. 

Tate Wide Left

Boldin Wide Right

Jones SlotWR

You are posting it will look more like 

Tate LWR

Marvin Jones RWR

Boldin in the slot?

That might be right, I'm asking for clarification. I'm assuming all 3 on the field most of the time? 

 

[gabes1919]

I always enjoy reading this thread, even when I think MOP is off his rocker. It's the discussion that I love. I rarely ever listen to anyone on a WDIS because in the end, I always make up my own mind. This is why I play the game. Sometimes, you win, sometimes you suck.

All that being said, I am struggling right now on a RB decision. I am torn between Langford and Ware. Langford was money for me last year when he started and has looked good in preseason. Ware is all the rage right now and does have a better matchup. I am just curious as to thoughts on these 2.

You've got to go with Ware imo. I think Langford will be serviceable this week and much better going forward but Ware has the chance to light it up against the Chargers and I think he will.

 

[Biabreakable]

MOP Jim Bob Cooters offense is adapted from the Lombardi offense that was largely organized based on Sean Payton's offense which is a hybrid of the Air Coryell and WCO schemes.

Parts of the offense were borrowed/maintained from Scott Linehan's Coryell system with the Lions before.

Golden Tate plays the Z or Flanker position. Marvin Jones plays the X or split end position and Boldin will primarily play in the slot as he did last season, although sure he may line up outside some times.

Here is a nice article that discusses Jim Bob Cooters adaptation of the offense at the end of last season. 

 

[Futz]

You are posting it will look more like 

Tate LWR

Marvin Jones RWR

Boldin in the slot?

That might be right, I'm asking for clarification. I'm assuming all 3 on the field most of the time? 

That's my understanding.  They are a base 3 WR offense so you should see lot of what you saw in the video. Jones was signed to take on Calvin's role. Boldin at his age is better suited for the underneath stuff and has the physique to hold up between the hash marks on third down. I only mention it because the Lion's slot is usually a distant third in touches so I wouldn't  want people to get the idea Boldin is a primary target. He will be way more valuable to the Lions than he will be to FF.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Awesome write ups MOP.   Great takes and information to digest.  While I don't agree with all of your week 1 projections--I absolutely respect them all. it's obvious that you have worked hard and spent a lot of time doing this--and it is much appreciated. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Pittsburgh at Washington +3 (50)

I'm happy to be able to write about the Steelers who on paper and when at full strength become one of the more potent offenses. Problem is the receivers are a little shaky after Antonio Brown and that includes the TE position. Bell is out for 3 weeks, Bryant the season. I think Pittsburgh is going to have a rough go of it early until they get back to full strength. 

That said, I believe their top 3, meaning QB-BB, WR-AB, RB-DWill, all of them should be good to go as they will most weeks they are starting. I'm a little cautious on DWill but he has extended his career past Carolina now and I never thought that would happen. If he had played on the Steelers his entire career, no telling what he might have done beyond his accomplishments already. 

The Skins are a wild mess running the ball right now, Matt Jones will get the nod for most owners and the Skins but there are plenty of other guys that are being billed as possibly the next big thing there. My gut says Jones will be serviceable Week 1. 

One of the real steals of the draft IMHO was DeSean Jackson. He was hurt for most of the first half of 2016, once he got going he had a decent year. I think knowing Cousins is their QB and an entire off season will definitely show up in the box score this weekend. Pierre Garcon will continue to start and Jamison Crowder I believe is the slot guy but check on that for me. Kirk Cousins also has Jordan Reed and so he has plenty of weapons and ways to move the football. The Skins defense isn't great but the Steelers have problems right now and I believe Washington is going to pop them on MNF at home. I'm not sure if the Skins are a playoff team yet but they are going to zip the football around and score points, lots of points. If this game were played in Week 6 I might feel different but in Week 1, Washington has a better than avg chance of winning this football game. 

Final Score: Washington 27...Pittsburgh 21

Los Angeles at San Francisco +2.5 (43.5)

Two teams with questions at QB face off in the nightcap on MNF. Todd Gurley was the first RB taken in most every draft I saw. With no real dynamic offense around him I worry the investment won't quite match the pay off. That said he has a lot of talent and is in a small class of elite RBs even if the stats don't quite add up just yet. Gurley does produce but yards and points don't come easy for the Rams. 5 years in with Fisher and no real QB yet. You can point to Goff but he is far from ready right now. The Rams WRs IMO are a sit for now. I don't know how you can start any of them with confidence. 

The Niners...Blaine Gabbert, you are going to work Jacksonville scrap heap QB into your starting QB...why does CK stink so much? I don't care about his politics, wish he would care more about his play on the field, he used to be highly touted. Jeremy Kerley, Quinton Patton, Torrey Smith...that's your starting trio right there. I want to believe Carlos Hyde can produce but I'm skeptical and even owning him in a small keeper league, I really am not optimistic on his chances. If he does anything, most owners will likely be surprised. But for now, he is the only guy I would want in a SF uniform until we watch a few games and figure out the real plan here. 

Final Score: Los Angeles 17...San Francisco 16, where is the offense coming from in this one?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Interested to see if Eli Rogers has any value. I like his matchup with J-No on AB (who will still get his.) Presumably Breeland will be on the outside guarding Wheaton with rookie Kendall Fuller on Rogers. Those are two favorable match ups.

 

[Dismattle]

I dounno if ya eyeballed the link I posted but it covers some numbers n odds type info..

71 percent of Williams' rushing attempts last season were on interior runs (142 of 200), the highest rate in the league. Washington allowed 4.5 yards per carry on those runs, the 4th highest in the league.

Just five of Ben Roethlisberger's 21 passing touchdowns came on the road last season and he had averaged seven fewer points on the road per game over the past three seasons.

Eli Rogers Washington’s boundary corners are very good and should inherently funnel targets inside where rookie Kendall Fuller will be..

The Saints scored 13.8 more points per game at home last season than on the road, the largest increase in the league.

Bust: Michael Thomas (Thomas may play over Snead in 2WR sets as he did in the preseason, but no matter where he goes, he’ll run into a worse matchup with Sean Smith and David Amerson than Snead will draw when the Saints go with three wideouts)

It sounds like a great test for Thomas, and maybe Big Ben gets to welcome in a rookie..

 

[Dismattle]

MOP  you may care to listen to this from a defensive perspective   Im almost shocked the media hasnt blown in out of proportion

Maybe there waiting for the Panthers to blow em out  (just jesting)

https://youtu.be/-5KTi_GGfKo?t=40s 

Broncos made changes to that Defense that I had forgotten, and not even knowing about.. ugh

Think theres anything to see here?   Funchess scoring potential for his floor is in doubt

What do you figure for target distribution etc.?  Think Funchess starts over most of the new rookie WR's?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP  you may care to listen to this from a defensive perspective   Im almost shocked the media hasnt blown in out of proportion

Maybe there waiting for the Panthers to blow em out  (just jesting)

https://youtu.be/-5KTi_GGfKo?t=40s 

Broncos made changes to that Defense that I had forgotten, and not even knowing about.. ugh

Think theres anything to see here?   Funchess scoring potential for his floor is in doubt

What do you figure for target distribution etc.?  Think Funchess starts over most of the new rookie WR's?

Oh I think Carolina is going to seek revenge for the Super Bowl, feel however you like but there is a major difference at QB between the two teams, it has to matter.

Denver secondary IMO is still the best and they have a good pass rush so I think Cam will manage some ground game to move the stocks and pepper in a few receptions here and there. Greg Olsen is his best target, perhaps getting Olsen on a LB but Denver shut him down pretty good in the Super Bowl as I recall. 

Is Kelvin Benjamin playing tonight? I like Olsen, WR1...where does Funchess stack up right now? Highly risky IMO but I'm not the owner of the FF team. 

Low scoring game tonight me thinks.

 

[pack66]

So glad you're doing this again MOP, was always a must read for me in years past.

 

[Two Deep]

I have four bad options to choose from:

1. Michael Thomas v. OAK
   
2. Will Fuller v. CHI
   
3. Devin Funchess @ DEN
   
4. Eli Rogers @ WAS
   

We can talk about my draft screwups some other time.

Thoughts: Thomas was hyped early by Brees and Payton, but we've heard that one before. Talk is cheap in NOLA. Snead may be just an average talent but he's still the starter, and Thomas didn't really shine in the PS. Fuller blew by Strong during PS, who had very good reports throughout OTAs and early TC. Will definitely stretch the field, but it's a run first team. Seems like [Braxton] Miller will be in the mix as well, so to me it's Hopkins and a WRBC situation - expecting inconsistency from all three of the "other" WRs in Houston. Funchess is a popular pick to breakout. The 9 targets in the first half of the dress rehearsal plus Benjamin's 35 snap count limit are very encouraging. But starting off the FF season by putting your WR3 in versus the Broncos in what should be a low scoring game seems like a bad idea. Rogers unexpectedly passed Coates during PS as the de facto WR3 on the Steelers. He should see a ton of snaps from the slot and he reportedly has a similar skillset to top dog AB. But again, do I really want to start off the season with a 3-35-0 line?

Feel free to chime in, but I think I'll ask my 8 y.o. daughter and just roll with whatever she picks. She hates sports and especially football, but I'm pretty sure she's got as much chance as you and I trying to figure out which of these four should get the nod.

Eli Rogers might not be as bad an option as you thinkApparently Wheaton is now doubtful to play this week.Somebody other than Brown will have to show up as well...

Markus Wheaton (shoulder) is considered "unlikely" to play on Monday Night Football against the Redskins after missing practice all week.

Wheaton previously guaranteed he would play against Washington, but beat writer David Todd considers Wheaton "a big question mark" who ultimately "looks unlikely" to play in Week 1. If Wheaton indeed is inactive, Sammie Coates or Darrius Heyward-Bey would get the start across from Antonio Brown. Eli Rogers is the Steelers' slot receiver. Pittsburgh holds one more practice on Saturday. We should have a firmer grasp on Wheaton's status then.

Source: David Todd on Twitter
Sep 9 - 2:13 PM

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Carolina vs Denver +3 (41.5)

Actual score of 21 to 20 or 41, a half point under.

Good shoot'n Vegas.

Oh, and great thread MOP.