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Ummm...yes???
Wow I feel strangely honored to finally be able to "correct" you about something. I'm not saying brown definitely won't get 75 catches but philly's #1 wr only got at least 50 catches once in the past four years. TO was that guy and he had 77 catches in 2004. As someone who lives in athens, GA where brown played his college ball I think he's talented but he ain't no TO. Now westbrook has had significantly more than 50 catches in each of the past three seasons and LJ smith has had 50 or more catches in each of the past two seasons so yes, the eagles throw the ball but not to their wide receiversBrown had 48 catches last season so he'll get a bump there. In 2005 terry glenn averaged a league leading 18.3 ypr, this past year it was down to 15.0 also santana moss averaged 17.7 ypr in '05 and that dropped to 14.4 last season so I'll factor in brown having a significant drop in his ypr and all of that comes out to: 55 catches - 852 yards(15.5 ypr) and 8 TDs
If I am to "bank on it" please inform me which of the following 5 guys I can "bank on" not being in the top 10. TIAHarrisonOwensWayneSteve SmithCJHoltFitzEvansDriverWalkerR. WilliamsD. JaxColstonAndre JohnsonBoldin
Hey no worries - look like I overstated the catches. Good "catch" then.Since Brown was over 17 YPC last year, that would mean that he could get to 1,000 in 60 catches. He had 26 in the first 8 games last year, so I could see him getting 60-ish.Bear in mind that they had Westy running more after Donovan went down, rather than receiving, so that could mean a general uptick in WR1/WR2 numbers if they keep that philosophy. Time will tell.So bump down my off the cuff numbers. 60-1000-8 sounds more practical then.I'm far from infallible.
mcnabbs rushing numbers have gone down every year, however his passing numbers have pretty much steadily increased, the statistcal correlation actually shows that mcnabb plays better as a qb when not rushing or simply he just doesnt need to run anymore. i dont think his knee will be an issue, but even if it is i dont see it affecting his performance whatsoever good ol donny mac will be back on pace
Imo brown is suited to be a quality #3 wr...personally I wouldn't want to rely on him as one of my starters
The only locks there are the ones I bolded. Brown could out-do any of the others.Owens is always a risk to get suspended for something (sleeping in meetings?)
I see only Wayne, CJ, and Steve Smith as locks. Holt, Fitzgerald, Evans, and Owens as probable. Boldin as likely.Look, I don't have the empirical evidence to back up my prediction. How could I when Philly has had no top WR talent on the roster (for more then one season) in 20 years? But think about that for a sec, besides one season for TO, and one for Stallworth, they have not had a single WR of significance.Brown grew by leaps and bounds between his rookie and second seasons, and should improve by a similar margin in his third.I probably overstated my opinion when I said "lock", but I would very comfortably slate him at the top of the third teir, with the likes of Driver, Walker, Johnson, and Colston.With McNabb coming off the knee injury, look for Philly to run a more balanced attack, with Westbrook running a little more, and blocking a little more on passing downs. Curtis is talented enough to keep defenses honest, especially with LJ Smith also in the mix, but not talented enough to displace Brown as #1. McNabb will be ready for the season. All reports have him ahead of schedule, and he's always been a workout warrior. Maybe he won't be as big a threat to run with it, but his arm will be fine.80 rec, 1200 yds, 8 TD's. That would put him around WR7-10.Keith Lewis said:
That's about what I expect from him.Jeff Pasquino said:Hey no worries - look like I overstated the catches. Good "catch" then.Since Brown was over 17 YPC last year, that would mean that he could get to 1,000 in 60 catches.FTRWRTR said:
He had 26 in the first 8 games last year, so I could see him getting 60-ish.
Bear in mind that they had Westy running more after Donovan went down, rather than receiving, so that could mean a general uptick in WR1/WR2 numbers if they keep that philosophy. Time will tell.
So bump down my off the cuff numbers. 60-1000-8 sounds more practical then.
I'm far from infallible.
Those numbers seem more like his floor then his ceiling to me.I will say that Brown will be one of the more difficult WR's to project this year for a number of reasons. It's been twenty years since Philly had a talented wideout in the system for more then one season. While I regret my earlier use of the word "lock", I do believe Brown will end the season just inside the top ten.Jeff Pasquino said:Hey no worries - look like I overstated the catches. Good "catch" then.Since Brown was over 17 YPC last year, that would mean that he could get to 1,000 in 60 catches. He had 26 in the first 8 games last year, so I could see him getting 60-ish.Bear in mind that they had Westy running more after Donovan went down, rather than receiving, so that could mean a general uptick in WR1/WR2 numbers if they keep that philosophy. Time will tell.So bump down my off the cuff numbers. 60-1000-8 sounds more practical then.I'm far from infallible.
No need for you to backpedal, you didn't get "corrected" on anything. It's not like predicting future performance based on historic data for the PHI WR squad is anything close to something you'd want to rely on. Picking a 4 year window in which there was a great deal of turmoil and turnover at the position is a statistical nightmare and a tremendous error. How can anything derived from that window be considered a trend beyond the sheer amount that they've thrown the ball from year to year? TO had that year he is basing his assumptions off of in his first year in a new offense and had he kept his head on straight the next year he might have been able to exceed those numbers. Can't figure out why the ceiling was set by that particular season other than TO's talent level. Brown may not be TO, but he doesn't have to be to exceed that season's totals. TO has exceeded those totals in other years. These guy's ceiling truly is hinged more on McNabb than on their individual talent levels. I watched him in quite a few games last year and at times he looked like one of the best in the game and at other times he looked extremely erratic like he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, missing WR's left and right. If McNabb can play more consistently there is no reason that Brown and Curtis couldn't both hit 75 receptions.Jeff Pasquino said:Hey no worries - look like I overstated the catches. Good "catch" then.Since Brown was over 17 YPC last year, that would mean that he could get to 1,000 in 60 catches. He had 26 in the first 8 games last year, so I could see him getting 60-ish.Bear in mind that they had Westy running more after Donovan went down, rather than receiving, so that could mean a general uptick in WR1/WR2 numbers if they keep that philosophy. Time will tell.So bump down my off the cuff numbers. 60-1000-8 sounds more practical then.I'm far from infallible.FTRWRTR said:
Once you base any of your premise on Marvin Harrison STARTING to slow down the rest of your post becomes drivel. Harrison is not starting to slow down. He was second in receiving yards by 3 measly yards and second in receiving TD's posting a total of 12. Opinions are a great thing to have but steep them somewhat in fact if you want anyone to take you seriously.I have Brown in one of my dynasty leagues and am hoping he can be a WR#2 but I am not sold on him being able to do it on an Eagles team that spreads the ball around so much. Now in fairness I cannot downgrade him to poorly because to only say that outside of TO the catches have not been available to the wideouts is equally flawed as Philly has had some of the worst receiving corps since McNabb came to town.I am cautiously optimistic about Reggie Brown but in no way would be able to represent him as a top 10 WR.
Hero,I'm just curious if you still feel the same way or if your opinion has changed in the last few months?-Wile E.
