Reggie Wayne - How is this guy WR30? (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

I'm stunned at how this vet WR is being overlooked this year. At the guys in the WR30 range Wayne has the best scenario to produce as a WR1 by a long shot. He's basically being projected to not improve on last year's numbers when he had nothing at QB. As long as Luck plays at an average level, Wayne should be a top 20 WR, and if he becomes Luck's favorite target/security guy he could be pushing 90+ catches.

This just reminds me of how all the time we see the vet Pro Bowl WR is no longer sexy and is completely passed over and yet at the end of the year there he is at WR11. It was this way with Hines Ward and ironically enough Marvin Harrison for years, Warrick Dunn the same at RB. I think Wayne fits that mold to a T this year and will be on a lot of championship rosters.

Interested to hear counters on people agreeing with the 75/1000/4 type projections being thrown out there for him. IMO that should be about his floor if Luck can perform at a QB15ish level. I mean, it's not like Indy has some stud RB in the ground game that they'll lean on or that Wayne is the proverbial warm body where "somebody has to catch passes"; he's a Pro Bowl WR who still has a few good years left in him.

 

[Badgers Fan]

I think he finishes top 20 in PPR leagues. A definite target of mine. He is getting older, but is easily the most trustable option on that team. Luck will 100% be better than the crap they had at Qb last year

 

[baconisgood]

SHHHHHHHHHHHHH................

 

[meyerj31]

I believe he has two 1,000+ seasons left in him with Luck at the helm.

I traded Shonne for Wayne and some low rookie picks in Dynasty in a .5 PPR Rb, 1PPR WR league.

 

[Sweet Love]

Here are just a couple of thoughts...I am fine with Wayne at 74/1000/4, and actually in PPR that should put him better than WR30, but I do think that is reasonable, and not a floor. Here's why:

No Garcon - no one to draw coverage

No Clark - no one to draw coverage

Collie - I think his success hinges on Collie playing a full slate (which I do not feel comfortable with)

The vets you mentioned before (Harrion and Dunn), had weapons around them in Clark/Wayne and Roddy/Vick/Crumpler who could open things up for them, and they were in their prime. Now you are looking at a vet with not ONE weapon who is in his prime...what would stop anyone from doubling Wayne all day long??

 

[Grahamburn]

Turning 34 in November. Not explosive. Only receiving option on an offense with a rookie QB.

1,000 and 5 would really surprise me. I'll pass for a player with some upside.

 

[MAC_32]

Lack of upside. If he plays a full slate of games he's probably looking at top 20 overall production, or something close to it, but he's not going to be a difference maker on a championship team. There are plenty of guys drafted around him that will finish behind him, but there's also some in the same neighborhood that have potential to finish way above him. Those are the guys that will be on more championship teams, the trick is to identify and pick up those guys.

Wayne's the safer, conservative play. If he slips a round lower than he's already going I'll consider him though. This offense isn't going to be anything flashy year 1, Wayne will have a big role but I struggle to see many big plays and red zone opportunities. A lot of 5/60 types of games.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm stunned at how this vet WR is being overlooked this year. At the guys in the WR30 range Wayne has the best scenario to produce as a WR1 by a long shot. He's basically being projected to not improve on last year's numbers when he had nothing at QB. As long as Luck plays at an average level, Wayne should be a top 20 WR, and if he becomes Luck's favorite target/security guy he could be pushing 90+ catches.

This just reminds me of how all the time we see the vet Pro Bowl WR is no longer sexy and is completely passed over and yet at the end of the year there he is at WR11. It was this way with Hines Ward and ironically enough Marvin Harrison for years, Warrick Dunn the same at RB. I think Wayne fits that mold to a T this year and will be on a lot of championship rosters.

Interested to hear counters on people agreeing with the 75/1000/4 type projections being thrown out there for him. IMO that should be about his floor if Luck can perform at a QB15ish level. I mean, it's not like Indy has some stud RB in the ground game that they'll lean on or that Wayne is the proverbial warm body where "somebody has to catch passes"; he's a Pro Bowl WR who still has a few good years left in him.

What if Luck struggles as a rookie? What he if just sucks period? Assuming any rookie will come in and play well right off the bat is generally a sucker bet. For every Cam Newton there are multiple Tim Couch / David Carr / Jamarcus Russels. Rookie QBs, regardless of the ridiculous offseason hype surrounding Luck, typically struggle mightily when thrown into the fire from week one on bad teams.I think Wayne is being drafted right about where he should be, personally.

 

[baconisgood]

Derrick Mason ages 33, 34, 35

103/1087/5- Mostly Kyle Boller

80/1037/5- Rookie QB Joe Flacco

73/1028/7

Donald Driver 33, 34, 35

74/1012/5

70/1061/6

51/565/4

Wayne was better than those guys in their primes.

T.O. 33, 34, 35

85/1180/13

81/1355/15

81/1052/10

Jimmy Smith 33, 34, 35

80/1027/7

54/805/4 (12 games)

74/1172/6

Since 1980 there have been 6 34 year old receivers to put up 1200+ yards and 4 of them put up double digit TDs. 5 other receivers broke 1100 yards and 2 of them put up double digit TDs as well.

I think when people say limited upside they are right- a 1500/14 season isn't in the cards but there is plenty of room for Wayne to outpreform his ADP and be a top 15 receiver once more in his career.

 

[baconisgood]

I'm stunned at how this vet WR is being overlooked this year. At the guys in the WR30 range Wayne has the best scenario to produce as a WR1 by a long shot. He's basically being projected to not improve on last year's numbers when he had nothing at QB. As long as Luck plays at an average level, Wayne should be a top 20 WR, and if he becomes Luck's favorite target/security guy he could be pushing 90+ catches.

This just reminds me of how all the time we see the vet Pro Bowl WR is no longer sexy and is completely passed over and yet at the end of the year there he is at WR11. It was this way with Hines Ward and ironically enough Marvin Harrison for years, Warrick Dunn the same at RB. I think Wayne fits that mold to a T this year and will be on a lot of championship rosters.

Interested to hear counters on people agreeing with the 75/1000/4 type projections being thrown out there for him. IMO that should be about his floor if Luck can perform at a QB15ish level. I mean, it's not like Indy has some stud RB in the ground game that they'll lean on or that Wayne is the proverbial warm body where "somebody has to catch passes"; he's a Pro Bowl WR who still has a few good years left in him.

What if Luck struggles as a rookie? What he if just sucks period?

Assuming any rookie will come in and play well right off the bat is generally a sucker bet. For every Cam Newton there are multiple Tim Couch / David Carr / Jamarcus Russels. Rookie QBs, regardless of the ridiculous offseason hype surrounding Luck, typically struggle mightily when thrown into the fire from week one on bad teams.I think Wayne is being drafted right about where he should be, personally.

His QBs sucked last year and he was still a top 30 QB.

 

[tombonneau]

Some good counters. I guess what I have the most trouble shaking is that in last years worst case scenario he was still WR29 and this year he's being drafted as if his career low is his new baseline which any VBD drafter should immediately see as a value play.

As far as him getting older, the team that knows more about him than anyone else decided to re-sign him which usually means there are a few more seasons in the tank.

Good points about the lack of weapons but I'd think despite Garçons presence last year he still drew doubles but must plead ignorance as didn't watch many Colt games.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I've got no beef with Wayne at WR30. If Luck develops quickly, he might finish in the 20-25 range. I just don't see the WR1 upside here at all with his age and a rookie QB. And the realistic floor for any rookie QB is bad enough to drag his WR1 well below the WR30 mark.

 

[karmarooster]

Lack of upside. If he plays a full slate of games he's probably looking at top 20 overall production, or something close to it, but he's not going to be a difference maker on a championship team. There are plenty of guys drafted around him that will finish behind him, but there's also some in the same neighborhood that have potential to finish way above him. Those are the guys that will be on more championship teams, the trick is to identify and pick up those guys.Wayne's the safer, conservative play. If he slips a round lower than he's already going I'll consider him though. This offense isn't going to be anything flashy year 1, Wayne will have a big role but I struggle to see many big plays and red zone opportunities. A lot of 5/60 types of games.

I don't feel the Wayne love not because I don't think he'll produce - 70/1,000 is very possible - but I don't see him as a difference maker. I'd rather have Moore, Meachem, Kenny Britt, or Garcon. Most likely, Wayne will edge 1 or 2 of those in total points. But I bet at least one of them far out produces Wayne. There's a WR1 somewhere in that group, and it's not Wayne. Wayne is exactly the type of guy most FBGs articles tell you to avoid later in the draft, in favor of someone with more upside.

 

[bagger]

I'm stunned at how this vet WR is being overlooked this year. At the guys in the WR30 range Wayne has the best scenario to produce as a WR1 by a long shot. He's basically being projected to not improve on last year's numbers when he had nothing at QB. As long as Luck plays at an average level, Wayne should be a top 20 WR, and if he becomes Luck's favorite target/security guy he could be pushing 90+ catches.This just reminds me of how all the time we see the vet Pro Bowl WR is no longer sexy and is completely passed over and yet at the end of the year there he is at WR11. It was this way with Hines Ward and ironically enough Marvin Harrison for years, Warrick Dunn the same at RB. I think Wayne fits that mold to a T this year and will be on a lot of championship rosters.Interested to hear counters on people agreeing with the 75/1000/4 type projections being thrown out there for him. IMO that should be about his floor if Luck can perform at a QB15ish level. I mean, it's not like Indy has some stud RB in the ground game that they'll lean on or that Wayne is the proverbial warm body where "somebody has to catch passes"; he's a Pro Bowl WR who still has a few good years left in him.

i have him ranked #31 but there are wrs who will outproduce him and can be taken later in the draft: decker, s. holmes, crabtree, garcon, t smith who also (with the exception of holmes) have some dramatic upside compared to wayne.if i could get wayne in the 9th like a mason of recent years i would be all over him. however he is actually too pricey at his adp of the 7th round for me to draft him given other options.

 

[tombonneau]

i have him ranked #31 but there are wrs who will outproduce him and can be taken later in the draft: decker, s. holmes, crabtree, garcon, t smith who also (with the exception of holmes) have some dramatic upside compared to wayne.if i could get wayne in the 9th like a mason of recent years i would be all over him. however he is actually too pricey at his adp of the 7th round for me to draft him given other options.

That's where we'll have to agree to disagree. I have a hard time seeing Decker as an (at best) 1B besting Wayne's numbers (unless he has a 10+ TD year) and Holmes upside is even more limited than Wayne IMO given his QB scenario and tenuous league status. Crabtree is similar QB/offense scenario as Holmes but with two guys brought in who could pass him as the top WR on his team. Garcon I agree with if he ends up being The Man in Washington I could see him beating Wayne's numbers, but I've seen too much football in my life to ignore the Sophomore Slump warning signs blaring at me from Torrey Smith.

 

[saintfool]

the colts are going to stink. wayne and luck will get plenty of opportunities with garbage time.

 

[johnadams]

Wayne isn't in my top 40 at WR, let alone top 30. Upside is limited, especially in relation to the guys rounding out the WR3 category. Even in PPR, I'm not bumping him a lot.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Lack of upside. If he plays a full slate of games he's probably looking at top 20 overall production, or something close to it, but he's not going to be a difference maker on a championship team. There are plenty of guys drafted around him that will finish behind him, but there's also some in the same neighborhood that have potential to finish way above him. Those are the guys that will be on more championship teams, the trick is to identify and pick up those guys.

Wayne's the safer, conservative play. If he slips a round lower than he's already going I'll consider him though. This offense isn't going to be anything flashy year 1, Wayne will have a big role but I struggle to see many big plays and red zone opportunities. A lot of 5/60 types of games.

Okay, but your WR3 doesn't have to be if the rest of your team is good; he merely has to be a quality guy who puts up 800-1,000 yards, scores every few games and is good for 4-6 catches a game on average. I see no reason why Reggie Wayne cannot be what Santana Moss was three years ago: an anchor that might not be a difference maker, but is a solid and steady producer in your WR3 spot.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I've got no beef with Wayne at WR30. If Luck develops quickly, he might finish in the 20-25 range. I just don't see the WR1 upside here at all with his age and a rookie QB. And the realistic floor for any rookie QB is bad enough to drag his WR1 well below the WR30 mark.

couldn't you have said this about Steve Smith last year?

 

[Late225]

The "lack of upside" argument is bull####. If I recall correctly, his last year with a good quarterback he had 100+ receptions and was a top 5 wide receiver (ppr leagues).

All over last year's footballguys articles, it was highly encouraged to avoid Fred Jackson because he had didn't "have upside" where he was being drafted. Before Fred Jackson's injury last year, he was a top 5 running back and everyone who took guys with "more upside" were kicking themselves.

If we're talking dynasty, take guys near him with more upside. If we're talking redraft, I doubt anyone near him has the same upside he has. Especially if Andrew Luck is as good in year 1 as most of the scouts suggest he'll be. I don't think Andrew Luck will live up to the crazy expectations, but if he comes close, Reggie Wayne will be a steal this year.

 

[joey]

I bought him in a Keep 12 "dynasty" league for this years 4.11 and a 3rd next year. Besides the price being ridiculously cheap for him, I love him as my WR4 along with Santonio Holmes.

I think in dynasty, Wayne is a great backup WR for a team with a Win Now roster, who can come in in a pinch if a guy goes down or for bye weeks. And, heck, who knows, if he and Luck click quickly, I might have paid nothing for a potential WR2.

 

[MAC_32]

Lack of upside. If he plays a full slate of games he's probably looking at top 20 overall production, or something close to it, but he's not going to be a difference maker on a championship team. There are plenty of guys drafted around him that will finish behind him, but there's also some in the same neighborhood that have potential to finish way above him. Those are the guys that will be on more championship teams, the trick is to identify and pick up those guys.

Wayne's the safer, conservative play. If he slips a round lower than he's already going I'll consider him though. This offense isn't going to be anything flashy year 1, Wayne will have a big role but I struggle to see many big plays and red zone opportunities. A lot of 5/60 types of games.

Okay, but your WR3 doesn't have to be if the rest of your team is good; he merely has to be a quality guy who puts up 800-1,000 yards, scores every few games and is good for 4-6 catches a game on average. I see no reason why Reggie Wayne cannot be what Santana Moss was three years ago: an anchor that might not be a difference maker, but is a solid and steady producer in your WR3 spot.

I try to find Victor Cruz and Miles Austin types of impact players for my WR3

 

[eric rymer]

I think he will absolutely outperform his ADP. The loss of Garcon will hurt but losing Clark is a non factor. The guy only played 11 games in 2011 and 6 in 2010 and his best season of the two was for 352 yds. Clark is a non factor in this scenario. Fleener and Allen should both outperform those numbers. I am perfectly fine picking him up as my WR3 or WR4 for a bye week filler and injury protection. They will be behind a lot and will be forced to through.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Reggie Wayne having an average draft position of 75.7 overall just further shows the depth of WR this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm stunned at how this vet WR is being overlooked this year. At the guys in the WR30 range Wayne has the best scenario to produce as a WR1 by a long shot. He's basically being projected to not improve on last year's numbers when he had nothing at QB. As long as Luck plays at an average level, Wayne should be a top 20 WR, and if he becomes Luck's favorite target/security guy he could be pushing 90+ catches.This just reminds me of how all the time we see the vet Pro Bowl WR is no longer sexy and is completely passed over and yet at the end of the year there he is at WR11. It was this way with Hines Ward and ironically enough Marvin Harrison for years, Warrick Dunn the same at RB. I think Wayne fits that mold to a T this year and will be on a lot of championship rosters.Interested to hear counters on people agreeing with the 75/1000/4 type projections being thrown out there for him. IMO that should be about his floor if Luck can perform at a QB15ish level. I mean, it's not like Indy has some stud RB in the ground game that they'll lean on or that Wayne is the proverbial warm body where "somebody has to catch passes"; he's a Pro Bowl WR who still has a few good years left in him.

I agree. I think he improves greatly upon his numbers from 2011.

 

[renesauz]

HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sweet Love]

Derrick Mason ages 33, 34, 35103/1087/5- Mostly Kyle Boller80/1037/5- Rookie QB Joe Flacco73/1028/7Donald Driver 33, 34, 3574/1012/570/1061/651/565/4Wayne was better than those guys in their primes. T.O. 33, 34, 3585/1180/1381/1355/1581/1052/10Jimmy Smith 33, 34, 3580/1027/754/805/4 (12 games)74/1172/6Since 1980 there have been 6 34 year old receivers to put up 1200+ yards and 4 of them put up double digit TDs. 5 other receivers broke 1100 yards and 2 of them put up double digit TDs as well. I think when people say limited upside they are right- a 1500/14 season isn't in the cards but there is plenty of room for Wayne to outpreform his ADP and be a top 15 receiver once more in his career.

When you consider Carl Pickens and Herman Moore, neither Driver or Mason could have held a candle to them in their primes...yet neither played past age 32 (and neither did anything past of value past 30)...every "body" is different, but they all eventually break down, you just don't know when.

 

[Shutout]

The "lack of upside" argument is bull####. If I recall correctly, his last year with a good quarterback he had 100+ receptions and was a top 5 wide receiver (ppr leagues). All over last year's footballguys articles, it was highly encouraged to avoid Fred Jackson because he had didn't "have upside" where he was being drafted. Before Fred Jackson's injury last year, he was a top 5 running back and everyone who took guys with "more upside" were kicking themselves. If we're talking dynasty, take guys near him with more upside. If we're talking redraft, I doubt anyone near him has the same upside he has. Especially if Andrew Luck is as good in year 1 as most of the scouts suggest he'll be. I don't think Andrew Luck will live up to the crazy expectations, but if he comes close, Reggie Wayne will be a steal this year.

Very In general, people quite frankly get bored and look for the new shiny toy in FF. But they shouldn't with Wayne. People will cite the things thye have in the above posts and talk about age and etc, but let's look at is another way:-He's durable. He hasn't missed a game in 9 years. So based just on "ok, I'm going to take a guy as a WR3/flex, etc" who could possibly be a better selection because, on those weeks when you NEED your WR3 to come through or NEED the flex guy to actually be available, who's better? Nobody. -People talk about his feet when they should be talking about his hands. People talk about he doesn't have the speed, etc, anymore. That ship sailed years ago. For a while now, with Wayne, its been about route running and hands much more than speed. Anyone here think a rookie QB might appreciate a non-diva professional route runner who is actually where he needs to be...EVERYTIME? Anyone here think a rookie QB might trust and lean on a guy like that?-This is a brand new team and its going to have its growing pains. The Colts are likely going to be playing from behind some this year and we have to recognize that in fantasy, some of the best totals, especially in ppr, are these kinds of teams. During the regular flow of a game, if Wayne is catching 4-6 balls for 50-75 yards, yeah, that's not earth-shattering. But when he is tossing in the regular production with TDs and garbage TDs and a couple of mid-range catches late in the game when the defense is preventing the big play, suddenly, his points looks pretty good each week. And, by the way, the one thing that Reggie Wayne EXCELS at is finding those 9-4 yard short routes. Honestly, we could go on and on. The people that don't like old men and want the next big riser will never see it but Wayne is going to make a lot of owners happy this year.I said it earlier in the "1 big prediciton" thread, Reggie Wayne, from a FF points perspective will have as good if not better season than Demarius Thomas. When you're done scoffing, write it down and remember it because its going to happen. He has much more than people want to assume left and he's going to be a compiler this year. He will be that guy that frustrates the heck out of you when you play him ths year when you're busy looking at your opponent's BIG names and then watch Wayne nickel and dime you to death.

 

[baconisgood]

Derrick Mason ages 33, 34, 35103/1087/5- Mostly Kyle Boller80/1037/5- Rookie QB Joe Flacco73/1028/7Donald Driver 33, 34, 3574/1012/570/1061/651/565/4Wayne was better than those guys in their primes. T.O. 33, 34, 3585/1180/1381/1355/1581/1052/10Jimmy Smith 33, 34, 3580/1027/754/805/4 (12 games)74/1172/6Since 1980 there have been 6 34 year old receivers to put up 1200+ yards and 4 of them put up double digit TDs. 5 other receivers broke 1100 yards and 2 of them put up double digit TDs as well. I think when people say limited upside they are right- a 1500/14 season isn't in the cards but there is plenty of room for Wayne to outpreform his ADP and be a top 15 receiver once more in his career.

When you consider Carl Pickens and Herman Moore, neither Driver or Mason could have held a candle to them in their primes...yet neither played past age 32 (and neither did anything past of value past 30)...every "body" is different, but they all eventually break down, you just don't know when.

Since 1980 there have been 19 other receivers to catch 65+ balls as a 33 year old. 18 of those 19 had at least one more either 59 catch or 1,000 yard season left in him (Hines ward had a 59/755/5 line as the worst of those that made the cut. For receivers who have already been productive at 33 turning 34 doesn't represent a steep drop off.

 

[FF Ninja]

The "lack of upside" argument is bull####. If I recall correctly, his last year with a good quarterback he had 100+ receptions and was a top 5 wide receiver (ppr leagues). All over last year's footballguys articles, it was highly encouraged to avoid Fred Jackson because he had didn't "have upside" where he was being drafted. Before Fred Jackson's injury last year, he was a top 5 running back and everyone who took guys with "more upside" were kicking themselves. If we're talking dynasty, take guys near him with more upside. If we're talking redraft, I doubt anyone near him has the same upside he has. Especially if Andrew Luck is as good in year 1 as most of the scouts suggest he'll be. I don't think Andrew Luck will live up to the crazy expectations, but if he comes close, Reggie Wayne will be a steal this year.

I actually agree that he's good value at WR30, but the lack of upside argument has credence. In 2010, Peyton threw the ball 680 times, so we've got to throw that season out. Luck won't be throwing the ball 680 times. In 2009, Peyton threw the ball 571 times and completed 393 passes (69%!!) and Wayne did put up 100/1264/10. I doubt Luck throws it 571 times or completes 69% of his passes, so I think Wayne's ceiling is lower than 100/1264/10. The year prior to that Peyton threw 555 times for 371 completions (67%) and Wayne put up 82/1145/6 which was good for WR14. Realistically, I think that's his ceiling. Last year his 75/960/4 netted him a WR29 finish. To me those numbers aren't a whole lot different - a couple TDs, a few receptions. The main thing is that Reggie's days of 14 ypr might be over. So we're probably looking at a guy at WR30 who has WR20 upside. This isn't Fred Jackson in a Chan Gailey offense. Maybe Andrew Luck is the best NFL QB ever and he's stellar in his rookie year, but I don't think that's a realistic expectation. Unless Wayne hits a serious outlier in TDs by some stroke of luck, I don't see a solid case to be made for him to have much more upside than WR20, making him merely a safe, smart play at WR30 ADP, unlike a swing for the fences with Darius Moore or Robert Meachem.

 

[baconisgood]

The "lack of upside" argument is bull####. If I recall correctly, his last year with a good quarterback he had 100+ receptions and was a top 5 wide receiver (ppr leagues). All over last year's footballguys articles, it was highly encouraged to avoid Fred Jackson because he had didn't "have upside" where he was being drafted. Before Fred Jackson's injury last year, he was a top 5 running back and everyone who took guys with "more upside" were kicking themselves. If we're talking dynasty, take guys near him with more upside. If we're talking redraft, I doubt anyone near him has the same upside he has. Especially if Andrew Luck is as good in year 1 as most of the scouts suggest he'll be. I don't think Andrew Luck will live up to the crazy expectations, but if he comes close, Reggie Wayne will be a steal this year.

I actually agree that he's good value at WR30, but the lack of upside argument has credence. In 2010, Peyton threw the ball 680 times, so we've got to throw that season out. Luck won't be throwing the ball 680 times. In 2009, Peyton threw the ball 571 times and completed 393 passes (69%!!) and Wayne did put up 100/1264/10. I doubt Luck throws it 571 times or completes 69% of his passes, so I think Wayne's ceiling is lower than 100/1264/10. The year prior to that Peyton threw 555 times for 371 completions (67%) and Wayne put up 82/1145/6 which was good for WR14. Realistically, I think that's his ceiling. Last year his 75/960/4 netted him a WR29 finish. To me those numbers aren't a whole lot different - a couple TDs, a few receptions. The main thing is that Reggie's days of 14 ypr might be over. So we're probably looking at a guy at WR30 who has WR20 upside. This isn't Fred Jackson in a Chan Gailey offense. Maybe Andrew Luck is the best NFL QB ever and he's stellar in his rookie year, but I don't think that's a realistic expectation. Unless Wayne hits a serious outlier in TDs by some stroke of luck, I don't see a solid case to be made for him to have much more upside than WR20, making him merely a safe, smart play at WR30 ADP, unlike a swing for the fences with Darius Moore or Robert Meachem.

In 2010 Garcon had 117 targets and he's gone, Blair white had 57 and he's gone, Clark and Tamme combined for 144 and they are gone. As far as targets go in the past few years several players have seen > 150 targets on teams that threw for fewer than 600 attempts- a few of them.Steve Smith 2009- 150 targets, total team attempts 465Steve Smith 2005- 157/449Mason 2007 164/557Marshall 2007- 170/515Marshall 2009- 154/558So I don't think you automatically throw 600+ times or have a 69% completion rate to have one receiver targeted a whole bunch. I do agree his ceiling isn't likely more than 82/1145 but there is a good chance if he put up that line of 8-9 TDs which really moves him up into fringe WR 1 territory.

 

[Eminence]

I got the guy in a recent Dynasty start-up DIRT CHEAP:

Dez Bryant

Demaryius Thomas

Denarius Moore

Reggie Wayne

Jerome Simpson

Eddie Royal

Couldn't believe he was still there at 10.8 (12 Team, .5 PPR). Will he catch 100 balls like years past? No way, but he is the perfect WR3 and by the time he is done producing I will have replaced him with a better WR3.

Perfect value for someone's Dynasty team.

 

[DeaLerZ]

The "lack of upside" argument is bull####. If I recall correctly, his last year with a good quarterback he had 100+ receptions and was a top 5 wide receiver (ppr leagues). All over last year's footballguys articles, it was highly encouraged to avoid Fred Jackson because he had didn't "have upside" where he was being drafted. Before Fred Jackson's injury last year, he was a top 5 running back and everyone who took guys with "more upside" were kicking themselves. If we're talking dynasty, take guys near him with more upside. If we're talking redraft, I doubt anyone near him has the same upside he has. Especially if Andrew Luck is as good in year 1 as most of the scouts suggest he'll be. I don't think Andrew Luck will live up to the crazy expectations, but if he comes close, Reggie Wayne will be a steal this year.

Very In general, people quite frankly get bored and look for the new shiny toy in FF. But they shouldn't with Wayne. People will cite the things thye have in the above posts and talk about age and etc, but let's look at is another way:-He's durable. He hasn't missed a game in 9 years. So based just on "ok, I'm going to take a guy as a WR3/flex, etc" who could possibly be a better selection because, on those weeks when you NEED your WR3 to come through or NEED the flex guy to actually be available, who's better? Nobody. -People talk about his feet when they should be talking about his hands. People talk about he doesn't have the speed, etc, anymore. That ship sailed years ago. For a while now, with Wayne, its been about route running and hands much more than speed. Anyone here think a rookie QB might appreciate a non-diva professional route runner who is actually where he needs to be...EVERYTIME? Anyone here think a rookie QB might trust and lean on a guy like that?-This is a brand new team and its going to have its growing pains. The Colts are likely going to be playing from behind some this year and we have to recognize that in fantasy, some of the best totals, especially in ppr, are these kinds of teams. During the regular flow of a game, if Wayne is catching 4-6 balls for 50-75 yards, yeah, that's not earth-shattering. But when he is tossing in the regular production with TDs and garbage TDs and a couple of mid-range catches late in the game when the defense is preventing the big play, suddenly, his points looks pretty good each week. And, by the way, the one thing that Reggie Wayne EXCELS at is finding those 9-4 yard short routes. Honestly, we could go on and on. The people that don't like old men and want the next big riser will never see it but Wayne is going to make a lot of owners happy this year.I said it earlier in the "1 big prediciton" thread, Reggie Wayne, from a FF points perspective will have as good if not better season than Demarius Thomas. When you're done scoffing, write it down and remember it because its going to happen. He has much more than people want to assume left and he's going to be a compiler this year. He will be that guy that frustrates the heck out of you when you play him ths year when you're busy looking at your opponent's BIG names and then watch Wayne nickel and dime you to death.

Well said.. I am on board for a nice #3 WR with upside

 

[tombonneau]

I've got no beef with Wayne at WR30. If Luck develops quickly, he might finish in the 20-25 range. I just don't see the WR1 upside here at all with his age and a rookie QB. And the realistic floor for any rookie QB is bad enough to drag his WR1 well below the WR30 mark.

couldn't you have said this about Steve Smith last year?

This is a great comparison. And in response to poster who said he prefers the Cruz and Austin as his WR3 upside picks, first off, those guys weren't being picked as WR3s when they blew up. Cruz was a FA and Austin maybe was drafted super late but IIRC was an early season WW darling who panned out.

Second, even if you are talking about upside guys like D-Moore and D-Thomas, what's the hit rate on them? I don't know about you, but my roster usually has 2-3 of those guys not producing for me that I eventually have to cut. We all suffer from denominator neglect when thinking about these WR gems; we all remember the hits that carry us to a championship, but we forget about that giant denominator littered with non-producing players.

 

[Sweet Love]

Derrick Mason ages 33, 34, 35103/1087/5- Mostly Kyle Boller80/1037/5- Rookie QB Joe Flacco73/1028/7Donald Driver 33, 34, 3574/1012/570/1061/651/565/4Wayne was better than those guys in their primes. T.O. 33, 34, 3585/1180/1381/1355/1581/1052/10Jimmy Smith 33, 34, 3580/1027/754/805/4 (12 games)74/1172/6Since 1980 there have been 6 34 year old receivers to put up 1200+ yards and 4 of them put up double digit TDs. 5 other receivers broke 1100 yards and 2 of them put up double digit TDs as well. I think when people say limited upside they are right- a 1500/14 season isn't in the cards but there is plenty of room for Wayne to outpreform his ADP and be a top 15 receiver once more in his career.

When you consider Carl Pickens and Herman Moore, neither Driver or Mason could have held a candle to them in their primes...yet neither played past age 32 (and neither did anything past of value past 30)...every "body" is different, but they all eventually break down, you just don't know when.

Since 1980 there have been 19 other receivers to catch 65+ balls as a 33 year old. 18 of those 19 had at least one more either 59 catch or 1,000 yard season left in him (Hines ward had a 59/755/5 line as the worst of those that made the cut. For receivers who have already been productive at 33 turning 34 doesn't represent a steep drop off.

That is fine, but when people start looking at 74/1000/7 as a "floor"...that makes me worry...there are about 5 WRs I would feel comfortable giving those numbers to as a floor...beyond that, you are playing the odds...they may be 70/30 in your favor, but you are still playing the odds.

 

[Ghost Rider]

And in response to poster who said he prefers the Cruz and Austin as his WR3 upside picks, first off, those guys weren't being picked as WR3s when they blew up. Cruz was a FA and Austin maybe was drafted super late but IIRC was an early season WW darling who panned out.

Did anyone even know who Victor Cruz was until he lit up the Eagles last year in Week 3?

 

[baconisgood]

Derrick Mason ages 33, 34, 35103/1087/5- Mostly Kyle Boller80/1037/5- Rookie QB Joe Flacco73/1028/7Donald Driver 33, 34, 3574/1012/570/1061/651/565/4Wayne was better than those guys in their primes. T.O. 33, 34, 3585/1180/1381/1355/1581/1052/10Jimmy Smith 33, 34, 3580/1027/754/805/4 (12 games)74/1172/6Since 1980 there have been 6 34 year old receivers to put up 1200+ yards and 4 of them put up double digit TDs. 5 other receivers broke 1100 yards and 2 of them put up double digit TDs as well. I think when people say limited upside they are right- a 1500/14 season isn't in the cards but there is plenty of room for Wayne to outpreform his ADP and be a top 15 receiver once more in his career.

When you consider Carl Pickens and Herman Moore, neither Driver or Mason could have held a candle to them in their primes...yet neither played past age 32 (and neither did anything past of value past 30)...every "body" is different, but they all eventually break down, you just don't know when.

Since 1980 there have been 19 other receivers to catch 65+ balls as a 33 year old. 18 of those 19 had at least one more either 59 catch or 1,000 yard season left in him (Hines ward had a 59/755/5 line as the worst of those that made the cut. For receivers who have already been productive at 33 turning 34 doesn't represent a steep drop off.

That is fine, but when people start looking at 74/1000/7 as a "floor"...that makes me worry...there are about 5 WRs I would feel comfortable giving those numbers to as a floor...beyond that, you are playing the odds...they may be 70/30 in your favor, but you are still playing the odds.

I agree, Ithink his non-injury floor is 60/900/3.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I've seen too much football in my life to ignore the Sophomore Slump warning signs blaring at me from Torrey Smith.

There is no such thing as a sophmore slump in the NFL.

 

[tombonneau]

I've seen too much football in my life to ignore the Sophomore Slump warning signs blaring at me from Torrey Smith.

There is no such thing as a sophmore slump in the NFL.

It could just be selective memory but I'd be interested to see how many rookie 1,000 yard WRs improved on their first season vs. declined. My guess is more regress than improve.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I've seen too much football in my life to ignore the Sophomore Slump warning signs blaring at me from Torrey Smith.

There is no such thing as a sophmore slump in the NFL.

It could just be selective memory but I'd be interested to see how many rookie 1,000 yard WRs improved on their first season vs. declined. My guess is more regress than improve.

Torrey Smith didn't have 1,000 yards last year.

 

[baconisgood]

I've seen too much football in my life to ignore the Sophomore Slump warning signs blaring at me from Torrey Smith.

There is no such thing as a sophmore slump in the NFL.

It could just be selective memory but I'd be interested to see how many rookie 1,000 yard WRs improved on their first season vs. declined. My guess is more regress than improve.

Of the 6 since 1990 Moss, Galloway and Colston saw no slump, Anquan and Glenn slumped but had injury issues and Clayton was a total bust. Dropping it down to 950 + yards adds slumps from eddie royal, mike williams and kevin johnson, and no slump from Andre Johnson and Dwayne Bowe.

 

[tombonneau]

I've seen too much football in my life to ignore the Sophomore Slump warning signs blaring at me from Torrey Smith.

There is no such thing as a sophmore slump in the NFL.

It could just be selective memory but I'd be interested to see how many rookie 1,000 yard WRs improved on their first season vs. declined. My guess is more regress than improve.

Of the 6 since 1990 Moss, Galloway and Colston saw no slump, Anquan and Glenn slumped but had injury issues and Clayton was a total bust. Dropping it down to 950 + yards adds slumps from eddie royal, mike williams and kevin johnson, and no slump from Andre Johnson and Dwayne Bowe.

Interesting. Looks like a misconception on my part clouded by Royal & Williams who were the two that were standing out because they were most recent.

 

[DoubleG]

30 is the new 20. It's all good. He will be drafted as a WR3/4 due to his "limited upside" = and perform as a WR2. Typical ADP falloff of aging WRs.

 

[medstudent]

Wayne is definitely undervalued. Should be better than last year with a better qb. Team should also be behind a lot and will let luck throw a lot to ramp up the learning curve. I would love him as a number 3/4 wide receiver.

 

[Abraham]

I'm a little unsure how it is that he has no upside.

 

[MAC_32]

And in response to poster who said he prefers the Cruz and Austin as his WR3 upside picks, first off, those guys weren't being picked as WR3s when they blew up. Cruz was a FA and Austin maybe was drafted super late but IIRC was an early season WW darling who panned out.

Did anyone even know who Victor Cruz was until he lit up the Eagles last year in Week 3?

Yes. When a camp unknown blows up then gets IR'd preseason with a modest injury instead of cut I take notice, see Lestar Jean this year. I don't expect to connect with all of these darts, I expect most to miss, but all I need is one hit and I have a huge advantage come fantasy playoff time as I have a stud at WR and my opponent has Lance Moore or Anquan Boldin as his last starting WR.

 

[tombonneau]

Kudos for those who were able to get Wayne around WR30. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get him in either league but good to see a prediction looking good so far.

For those who own him, what are your thoughts on this value? Is there a feeling of sell high, or more hold because you might have hit a mid-round home run? I'm thinking of making a play for him via trade and just trying to gauge opinions.

 

[Dought Man]

Kudos for those who were able to get Wayne around WR30. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get him in either league but good to see a prediction looking good so far.For those who own him, what are your thoughts on this value? Is there a feeling of sell high, or more hold because you might have hit a mid-round home run? I'm thinking of making a play for him via trade and just trying to gauge opinions.

I think he's a hold. I can plug him in as a really nice flex option most weeks. You have to love that with a guy who went in round 8 or later. I figure the Colts will be trailing a lot and Luck has enough talent to compile nice garbage time stats this year, in 2nd halves when defenses are playing prevent.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

If he gets 9 catches a game definite hold.

 

[[icon]]

Guy caught 9 for 135 in a game where Luck generally looked poor. Luck can only get better and I expect Wayne to at the very least hold his value commensurate with Luck's improvement.

Right now I'd say he's a borderline lock for 1000 yards and I'd think 5-6 TDs would be his floor.

Upside? Could we see a 1400 yard season out of the guy? He's "only" got to average 85 yards a game down the stretch... certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

The only concern is facing increased coverage/attention going forward.

Overall, he's a steal where most of us got him. Nice call Tom... this thread was a factor in my targeting him.