Regressing from Shark to Guppy (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Back in the heyday of fantasy football (for me that was around 1991-1996) I would come up with my own projections for 50 or so players at each position (obviously less for TEs and Ks). It was pretty much a crapshoot, but I would take three year averages for players as a basis for projection and for rookies, sophomores or players entering their third year i would bucket their projections about where I thought those players should be slotted.

As more fantasy sites became available, I would often adjust my rankings based on what the pros thought to the point where "my" projections really weren't my projections at all. For the last several years I have not even bothered to make my own projections en masse, instead taking a known source (such as FBG) as my base projections and then altering certain players to reflect where I thought they really should be slotted.

This year I am seriously considering just running with FBG projections, some hybrid combination of VBD and ADP (tiering probably) and saving myself the time and effort of doing any projections at all.

So my question -

do most people still truly do their own projections or is it safe to assume that more people rely on site projections combined with a little bit of intuition and research?

 

[tangfoot]

This year I am seriously considering just running with FBG projections, some hybrid combination of VBD and ADP (tiering probably) and saving myself the time and effort of doing any projections at all.

What have your results been since you sold out?

 

[sholditch]

Honestly I just kind of do them in my head and I manage to keep track of everything fairly well. I get and idea of players that I think are undervalued and overvalued and go by that, and hope that I'm mostly right. I could write them all down but I think I have a good enough idea not to do the heavy lifting.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Honestly I just kind of do them in my head and I manage to keep track of everything fairly well. I get and idea of players that I think are undervalued and overvalued and go by that, and hope that I'm mostly right. I could write them all down but I think I have a good enough idea not to do the heavy lifting.

That's exactly what I am getting at. If I see a projection that seems whack to me, I am bright enough to make a mental adjustment. I just fail to see the value added to reinvent the wheel when so many other trustworthy sources are doing the heavy lifting.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

This year I am seriously considering just running with FBG projections, some hybrid combination of VBD and ADP (tiering probably) and saving myself the time and effort of doing any projections at all.

What have your results been since you sold out?

In the early years I was dominant because there wasn't the wealth of information available that there is today. So my hard work translated into results. Now the effort I expend is offset by the fact that Joe Six Pack can draft well with input from a magazine.

 

[tangfoot]

This year I am seriously considering just running with FBG projections, some hybrid combination of VBD and ADP (tiering probably) and saving myself the time and effort of doing any projections at all.

What have your results been since you sold out?

In the early years I was dominant because there wasn't the wealth of information available that there is today. So my hard work translated into results. Now the effort I expend is offset by the fact that Joe Six Pack can draft well with input from a magazine.

So you're saying that you're not doing so hot? No offense, because I'm in the same boat. The six-pack drafter has gotten more/better information every year. Those ####### cheatsheets are actually beginning to do a good job.I don't think your projections are the problem.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Honestly I just kind of do them in my head and I manage to keep track of everything fairly well. I get and idea of players that I think are undervalued and overvalued and go by that, and hope that I'm mostly right. I could write them all down but I think I have a good enough idea not to do the heavy lifting.

That's exactly what I am getting at. If I see a projection that seems whack to me, I am bright enough to make a mental adjustment. I just fail to see the value added to reinvent the wheel when so many other trustworthy sources are doing the heavy lifting.

Me too. I realized that at some point there's only so much that projections can do for you. The bottom line is that 99.99% of projections are wrong. You're never going to project exact orders correctly, you're never going to project yardage correctly to the yard and you're going to be pretty hit and miss on projecting TDs as well. Once I find a list that's pretty close to what I like, I'll go pretty much by the list, making small adjustments as I go. I'll highlight certain players on the list that I think are undervalued to keep me aware of them so that I don't get too caught up in the list order. I still love the FBG tools in that it allows me to customize the projections of the "pros" to my league's scoring and lets me see where the values are throughout each round and gives me a strategy heading into my draft. But there's no way I'm sitting down and trying to come up with my own projections for all of those players.The true value at FBG, to me, are the articles breaking down the previous season to show where some players actually performed better than what their stats may indicate (or vice versa). Other articles along those lines are helpful as well in that they help me re-think how much I value a particular player in my mind.

 

[Da Guru]

I use projections as a guide, then I make my own decisions. I took Gates in front on Gonzo last year even though Gonzo was ranked way higher on the Draft Dominator for my league.

 

[my man otis]

stopped doing projections two years ago. it's not that i don't want to do my own, but as I get older life just seems to get more and more complicated --> less time to spend on FF.

For a small sum I'll just have the team @ FBG do it for me.

Sort of like picking stocks, I let someone else do it because their career depends on it and they're in the trenches day in and day out. i can't watch the tape/reuters/economic releases 24/7.

I'll take the VBD spreadsheet results and just highlight in green guys i like and highlight in red guys I don't. Seems to work fine for me.

 

[RudeDog]

Because of this I believe you will find redraft leagues in decline amoung the hard-core FFler's. Dynasty leagues are the landscape of the future for most of us who really want to test our knowledge of the game.

It more closely resembles life as a GM. You must evaluate college talent and project how they transition to the pro game. You must also rely upon deal-making strategies to package trade deals to your advantage.

It is much more interesting and difficult.

 

[Bailiver]

This year I am seriously considering just running with FBG projections, some hybrid combination of VBD and ADP (tiering probably) and saving myself the time and effort of doing any projections at all.

What have your results been since you sold out?

In the early years I was dominant because there wasn't the wealth of information available that there is today. So my hard work translated into results. Now the effort I expend is offset by the fact that Joe Six Pack can draft well with input from a magazine.

So you're saying that you're not doing so hot? No offense, because I'm in the same boat. The six-pack drafter has gotten more/better information every year. Those ####### cheatsheets are actually beginning to do a good job.I don't think your projections are the problem.

I agree that the cheatsheets available from a number of sources have improved in quality over the last few years. But I still have an edge over the guppies that draft two of the stud QBs in the first 5 rounds, and those that begin drafting defenses and kickers in the first 6-8 rounds.

 

[MLBrandow]

I rely on my own.

I am old school, in that I don't have a bunch of lists and stats and things like that when I draft.

It's all up here (points to head).

Makes drafting more fun...

Edit to add: I do use the most accurate ADP list I can find, and I draft off of where I see value from that.

 

[mwaldo13]

The true value at FBG, to me, are the articles breaking down the previous season to show where some players actually performed better than what their stats may indicate (or vice versa). Other articles along those lines are helpful as well in that they help me re-think how much I value a particular player in my mind.

I would also add that some of the discussion in the room can be beneficial as well (but not that ridiculous list of rants on C. Palmer and his magical knee...)

 

[CrossEyed]

So none of you pick based on the colors of the helmets?

 

[Islander]

I spend a tremendous amount of time on projections and rankings. Sometimes I wonder how much worse (or better!?) I would do I simply used the FBG consensus, compared it to the ADP, and drafted players only when there were in their "value zone" compared to FBG rankings and/or ADP. For example, I would draft a RB if he's ranked 10th by FBG and his ADP is 9th and I have the 12th pick.

I don't think I could have a bad draft doing it this way, and it would take me 30 minutes to prepare for the draft instead of 300 hours.

 

[super sleeper]

To me, the days of doing your own projections to gain an edge are long gone. How much more accurate are you going to be than the experts on this site and others? Look at the Player Spotlight threads. Everyone is in the same ballpark, so using the consensus as the baseline and adjusting certain players you feel are going to do better or worse will save alot of time and have very little effect on the outcome of your draft.

What separates the sharks from the guppies these days is adjusting player values to your league's scoring system, and using that to dominate your draft. Also staying on top of depth charts and knowing who the emerging players are before the rest of the league. A couple of years back, no one had FBGs and the breaking email updates. Now, 75% of my league is running draft dominator, and waiver claims are lost by as little as 30 seconds since we all have almost immediate access to any big news.

 

[Seehawk]

I've always felt the value of doing my own projections isn't the projections themselves but the process of doing them. Doing projections forces me to look at each player individually and mash together his history, situation, changes, news & my own knowledge/instinct and to quantify what I think he will accomplish this season. To be frank, I think the actual numeric projection is probably a load of bunk (well, at least as "bunky" as anybody else's projections) but the thought & the process and what I learn and remember about each player is more important then the final numbers I come up with for that player. It's not enough to know that play X is projected to have 1100 yards and 8 TDs, I need to know WHY he's projected to have those numbers then I can decide how much confidence I have in those numbers and how to move them up or down as his situation changes. So I still think that doing your own projections is important since it makes you shine a light on each player and make a quantified decision on how good or bad he's going to be.

All that being said....6-8 years ago my projections were "all mine". I projected minimum 40 QB, 60 RB and 100 WR. These days I tend to take a set of projections I trust and then start adjusting them. I'll probably project half as many players as I did 5 years ago (no more then 40WR) and for the last 2-3 years I don't think I've even bothered to look at TE, PK or DF and simply grab the top 20s from a "trusted site".

 

[Al Toon's Mole]

Well i'll start by saying i am somwhere in between on the ideas being thrown around here. This being my 7th year playing in a pretty competitive FF league, i have found that it's not really the projections that help or hinder someones chances of winning their league. I tend to believe that more and more information can only help to confuse people during draft time. Tier rankings, ADP, Point production lists...etc ...etc...

I gladly give most of these things to my competitors in hopes that overloading them with too many choices will complicate their picks and help to leave some true "gems" of the FF realm alive in later rounds due to their lack of admiration by the FF writers.

All in all i go with a basic depth chart of ALL teams.....then rank my players on the depth chart....may sound too simple, but so many times an undervalued #2 is sitting there later in the rounds, because everyone still wants a #1.

The final piece of advice i can give is:

1.Read the training camp reports(see if the coaches are high or low on someone) that means more than the ADP

2.Watch as much of the training camp and pre-season games as possible. You can tell a lot more from seeing what a player is capable of then by listineng to reporters who never played the game anyways.

and

3. Just draft wisely, don't go after the "Big" name just because he is on the board...case in point last years draft.....in most leagues Santana Moss went in the 7th or later because he had off years with the Jets, but if anyone paid attention in training Camp, his report with Brunell was apparent from the start.

So good luck to everyone and just make smart choices........the first 3 rounds always try and get a guy who can score Double Digit TD's........and never be afraid to make some trades.....that will seal your playoff run with a bang.

 

[Gambler]

Why not just take the projections from say 5 websites, drop the high and low and average the other 3?

Works for me every year! Always cash a check.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Great thread.

 

[Chaka]

Projections are for suckers.

 

[WisWolvrns]

stopped doing projections two years ago. it's not that i don't want to do my own, but as I get older life just seems to get more and more complicated --> less time to spend on FF.For a small sum I'll just have the team @ FBG do it for me.Sort of like picking stocks, I let someone else do it because their career depends on it and they're in the trenches day in and day out. i can't watch the tape/reuters/economic releases 24/7.I'll take the VBD spreadsheet results and just highlight in green guys i like and highlight in red guys I don't. Seems to work fine for me.

I have to admit moving down the same road. Heck, I have all the week 1 preseason games on dvr, but only caught parts of 4 of them so far... and it's almost the start of week 2. So the rest will probably be erased. As one gets less free time, having FBG to lean on is a definite help. From a few months of research and ranking in my past, I can do all that in a week before my drafts, using FBG as the baseline and adjusting accordingly. Though I do try and read the daily updates and KFFL hotwire when possible. The biggest thing I find is any snipet I think is going to useful that I read, I write it to a file or email. Then I just add that to the notes for the player in DD. Then on draft day, I have some of that info readily available and it doesn't get lost in the shuffle. Ironically, with the luck/skill factor of the game, I've found I do just as well when I do alot of work as when I use FBG's to do the heavy lifting and I add my tweaks a week before my drafts. Either way I come out with competitive teams and have great seasons.

 

[my man otis]

IMO the separation from the sharks/guppies isn't good projections it's just information, just like anything else. Get the information, make your best guess (and quicker than others) as to the result and put a plan into action. If you're right 60% of the time you should be pretty solid year after year.

 

[WisWolvrns]

I agree. And knowing how to translate that information into a draft strategy.

 

[teamramrod]

I use projections as a guide, then I make my own decisions. I took Gates in front on Gonzo last year even though Gonzo was ranked way higher on the Draft Dominator for my league.

I took gonzo.....Non-PPR league even

 

[cheeseypoof]

I've always felt the value of doing my own projections isn't the projections themselves but the process of doing them. Doing projections forces me to look at each player individually and mash together his history, situation, changes, news & my own knowledge/instinct and to quantify what I think he will accomplish this season. To be frank, I think the actual numeric projection is probably a load of bunk (well, at least as "bunky" as anybody else's projections) but the thought & the process and what I learn and remember about each player is more important then the final numbers I come up with for that player. It's not enough to know that play X is projected to have 1100 yards and 8 TDs, I need to know WHY he's projected to have those numbers then I can decide how much confidence I have in those numbers and how to move them up or down as his situation changes. So I still think that doing your own projections is important since it makes you shine a light on each player and make a quantified decision on how good or bad he's going to be.All that being said....6-8 years ago my projections were "all mine". I projected minimum 40 QB, 60 RB and 100 WR. These days I tend to take a set of projections I trust and then start adjusting them. I'll probably project half as many players as I did 5 years ago (no more then 40WR) and for the last 2-3 years I don't think I've even bothered to look at TE, PK or DF and simply grab the top 20s from a "trusted site".

This is the best posting concerning doing your own projections that I've ever seen. When stated like that understand why somebody would do their own projections. I basically take FBG's projections and adjust them according to my personal preferences and league scoring.

 

[cybergourmet]

I tend to focus as much as post draft trading based on ADP as I do with drafting to finish a team.

 

[GloryDaze]

My last draft all I showed up with was a blank piece of paper and a pen. It turned out all right.

 

[The Jerk]

To me, the days of doing your own projections to gain an edge are long gone. How much more accurate are you going to be than the experts on this site and others? Look at the Player Spotlight threads. Everyone is in the same ballpark, so using the consensus as the baseline and adjusting certain players you feel are going to do better or worse will save alot of time and have very little effect on the outcome of your draft.What separates the sharks from the guppies these days is adjusting player values to your league's scoring system, and using that to dominate your draft. Also staying on top of depth charts and knowing who the emerging players are before the rest of the league. A couple of years back, no one had FBGs and the breaking email updates. Now, 75% of my league is running draft dominator, and waiver claims are lost by as little as 30 seconds since we all have almost immediate access to any big news.

I think this is a pretty good summation of most redraft leagues. I would add that one more way to separate yourself from the pack is to go beyond knowing the scoring system and focus on drafting tendencies of each owner and the league as a whole.I've always been more into tiers and dropoffs than raw projections, and my success rate has been fairly consistent. In fact, my worst years were 2001-2003 when I got too much information and tried to get too systematic and mathematical and not rely more on a combination of numbers and gut feel/instinct.

 

[Mister CIA]

Drafting is an artistic endeavor - some draw stick figures, a small few paint masterpieces - and most who use projections fall somewhere in the middle.

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Back in the heyday of fantasy football (for me that was around 1991-1996) I would come up with my own projections for 50 or so players at each position (obviously less for TEs and Ks). It was pretty much a crapshoot, but I would take three year averages for players as a basis for projection and for rookies, sophomores or players entering their third year i would bucket their projections about where I thought those players should be slotted.As more fantasy sites became available, I would often adjust my rankings based on what the pros thought to the point where "my" projections really weren't my projections at all. For the last several years I have not even bothered to make my own projections en masse, instead taking a known source (such as FBG) as my base projections and then altering certain players to reflect where I thought they really should be slotted.This year I am seriously considering just running with FBG projections, some hybrid combination of VBD and ADP (tiering probably) and saving myself the time and effort of doing any projections at all.So my question -do most people still truly do their own projections or is it safe to assume that more people rely on site projections combined with a little bit of intuition and research?

I do my own. I'd never rely on the projections of others(especially since just about every mag and web site seems to go straight from last years results ). If I want to use the projections of others, I might as well have them come and draft my team and run it for me.Of course it's always a good idea to KNOW the projections of others. Many people in your league will be using them.

 

[Amishboy]

stopped doing projections two years ago. it's not that i don't want to do my own, but as I get older life just seems to get more and more complicated --> less time to spend on FF.For a small sum I'll just have the team @ FBG do it for me.Sort of like picking stocks, I let someone else do it because their career depends on it and they're in the trenches day in and day out. i can't watch the tape/reuters/economic releases 24/7.I'll take the VBD spreadsheet results and just highlight in green guys i like and highlight in red guys I don't. Seems to work fine for me.

I have to admit moving down the same road. Heck, I have all the week 1 preseason games on dvr, but only caught parts of 4 of them so far... and it's almost the start of week 2. So the rest will probably be erased. As one gets less free time, having FBG to lean on is a definite help. From a few months of research and ranking in my past, I can do all that in a week before my drafts, using FBG as the baseline and adjusting accordingly. Though I do try and read the daily updates and KFFL hotwire when possible. The biggest thing I find is any snipet I think is going to useful that I read, I write it to a file or email. Then I just add that to the notes for the player in DD. Then on draft day, I have some of that info readily available and it doesn't get lost in the shuffle. Ironically, with the luck/skill factor of the game, I've found I do just as well when I do alot of work as when I use FBG's to do the heavy lifting and I add my tweaks a week before my drafts. Either way I come out with competitive teams and have great seasons.

I actually use this same approach, not because I'm lazy (OK I'm lazy) but for two reasons:1. I have realized that taking FBG and adjusting a little bit to my taste gives me a chance to see my kids in August;2. And about half of my league uses FBG - So it is like having their cheatsheets in front of me. It's better than any ADP list in the world.

 

[Tuomi]

I do my own projections. I feel like I get a better feel for where there are overreactions to a bad/good year for certain players. It also gives me a chance to see the second half splits for guys who could possibly breakout. This helped me draft Fitz, Galloway, and Cooley (Cooley was thanks to this board as well) last year.

 

[gregjcross]

mr. old school, i think you have to be old to be old school. people have carried lists since 1988

I rely on my own.I am old school, in that I don't have a bunch of lists and stats and things like that when I draft.It's all up here (points to head).Makes drafting more fun...Edit to add: I do use the most accurate ADP list I can find, and I draft off of where I see value from that.

 

[ren hoek]

Just draft with your gut. If your team sucks, you can at least put the blame squarely on your own shoulders rather than those of some cheesy information site. Last year I subscribed to FBG's rankings and finished 7th in a 10-teamer and 7th in a 12-teamer. While there is a lot of fantastic information presented here, I think your perceptions are ultimately formed by the opinions of other people, and at that point I think the whole point of fantasy football is pretty much lost.

And in the event that your team is good, you can give yourself that much more credit for it too.

 

[Hammerage]

Just draft with your gut. If your team sucks, you can at least put the blame squarely on your own shoulders rather than those of some cheesy information site. Last year I subscribed to FBG's rankings and finished 7th in a 10-teamer and 7th in a 12-teamer. While there is a lot of fantastic information presented here, I think your perceptions are ultimately formed by the opinions of other people, and at that point I think the whole point of fantasy football is pretty much lost.And in the event that your team is good, you can give yourself that much more credit for it too.

I rank players players between about 1 and 40 in my mind coming into the season. Then I tier them based on some projections and a gut feeling. A week before the draft I scribble in their ADP next to their name and use that to see where I can get value based on how the draft is flowing and how fast the tiers are falling.